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Climatic Conditions of the South Part of Valday Hills, Russia, and Their Projected Changes During the 21St Century O

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Climatic Conditions of the South Part of Valday Hills, Russia, and Their Projected Changes During the 21St Century O The Open Geography Journal, 2010, 3, 73-79 73 Open Access Climatic Conditions of the South Part of Valday Hills, Russia, and Their Projected Changes During the 21st Century O. Desherevskaya*,1, J. Kurbatova2 and A. Olchev2 1Faculty of Geography, M.V. Lomonosov Moscow State University, Moscow, Russia 2A.N. Severtsov Institute of Ecology and Evolution of RAS, Leninsky Prospekt 33, Moscow, Russia Abstract: Modern climate conditions and their possible future changes in the southern part of Valday Hills, Russia, were analyzed using 40-years of meteorological data observations and global model projections. It was shown that the annual, January and July temperatures in the area increased during the last 40 years by about 0.7°, 4.0°C and 0.3°C, respectively. Annual precipitation also increased by about 60 mm. Climate simulations for the period up to 2100 provided by a general circulation model ECHAM5 (MPI Hamburg, Germany) according to B1, A1B and A2 IPCC emission scenarios propose significant changes in meteorological conditions for the study area in the future. The mean annual temperature at the end of the century may rise by 2.2-3.9°C. Increase of January temperatures under different scenarios can range between 3.3 and 6.7°C. Projected increase of annual precipitation can reach 105 mm and it is mainly manifested in growth of winter values. Keywords: Present and future climate changes, climate modeling, IPCC emission scenarios, Valday Hills. 1. INTRODUCTION dynamics of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) developed Analysis of meteorological data during the last 100-150 several scenarios of gas emissions that are presented in the years highlights significant changes of global air temperature Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) for periods up and precipitation [1]. Over the last 100 years (1906–2005) to 2100 [2]. The scenarios are based on alternative versions global mean surface temperatures have raised by 0.74°C ± of human society development. Using different emission 0.18°C. The spatial pattern of global temperature changes is scenarios it is possible to make projections of possible future very heterogeneous and the most intensive temperature climate conditions both for different geographical regions growth has been observed in high latitude areas. At the same and for the entire Earth. time the temperature changes in tropical areas have been relatively small. The spatial pattern of global land Expected future climate changes can have a significant precipitation changes is also very non-uniform. Measure- impact on land vegetation cover. To forecast the reaction and ments show that precipitation increased in eastern North and sensitivity of different plant associations to global warming South America, northern Europe and northern and central it is necessary to assess the effects of climate changes on Asia, while decreasing in the Sahel, southern Africa, the plants in their specific habitats. It can be expected that the Mediterranean and southern Asia. largest vegetation changes can be observed at the boundaries and in transitional zones between different vegetation types Modern global warming is usually attributed to increases (for example, tundra-forest or forest-steppes) in consequence in greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere, and of both northern and southern species position at the border especially CO as a result of anthropogenic activity (fossil 2, of their natural habitats under one or another limitation fuel use, deforestation etc.). The largest part of atmospheric factor (temperature or moistening). Particularly, it was CO2 is absorbed by green plants during the process of already shown that projected climatic changes in the area of photosynthesis. Some part of CO is returned into the 2 the southern taiga forest and bog ecosystems of Central atmosphere because of plant respiration. The vital functions European Russia may result in reduction of proportion of of natural ecosystems depend strongly on environmental and spruce and in increase of proportion of broadleaf species in particularly climate conditions and must be investigated by 1 the forest stands by up to 20-40% . different climatological and ecophysiological methods. The main goal of this study was to summarize and Numerical modeling experiments assuming different analyze the long-term records of meteorological observations greenhouse gases emission into the atmosphere as lower and to evaluate the proposed future climate trends provided boundary conditions are one of the most important methods by a General Circulation Model ECHAM5 [3] for the area of used in climatic forecast. To evaluate possible future the south part of Valday Hills in Western Russia. *Address correspondence to this author at the Faculty of Geography, M.V. 1 Lomonosov Moscow State University, Moscow, Russia; Tel: 89032608305; Olchev A, Novenko E, Desherevskaya O, Krasnorutskaya K, Kurbatova J. E-mail: [email protected] Effects of climatic changes on carbon dioxide and water vapor fluxes of boreal forest ecosystems in European part of Russia. Environmental Research Letters (4) 2009, in print. 1874-9232/10 2010 Bentham Open 74 The Open Geography Journal, 2010, Volume 3 Desherevskaya et al. 2. MODERN CLIMATE CONDITION climate is mainly manifested in higher air temperatures during August-October than in comparison to Fedorovskoe. 2.1. Methods The last station, Velikie Luki, is located about 175 km Present climate conditions and their temporal variations west of Fedorovskoe at Zapadnaja Dvina tributary. The in the south of Valday Hills area were derived using elevation at Velikie Luki is 99 m above sea level. The area measurements at Fedorovskoe and Ostashkov stations, around this site is relatively flat and mostly deforested. operational since 1963 and 1961, respectively. To describe the climatic variability of the area over all of the 20th Comparisons of available meteorological data show that century the meteorological data records from the Velikie the air temperature in Velikie Luki is a little higher Luki station, located closely to the study area and operational throughout the year than in both Fedorovskoe and Ostashkov since 1881, were also used. (Fig. 1). Distinction of monthly mean air temperature between Fedorovskoe and Velikie Luki is about 0.6°C in The annual, January and July air temperatures and July and 1.6°C in January. It may be explained certainly by precipitation totals at 2 m above the ground were used in the both geographical location and altitude difference between analysis. Monthly and annual mean values were computed both sites. Mean gradient (0.79°C /100 m) between the for each site for all of the observation period. To analyze the stations is rather less than the moist-adiabatic lapse rate. modern trends of climatic data the measuring period was Winter temperature variability (up to 4.5°C in January) at all divided into two parts: 1963-1980 and 1981-1999. stations considerably exceeds the summer variability (1.1°C Time series analyses were conducted using the moving – 1.5°C). average method, a prevalent method in climatological Both monthly and annual precipitation rates are larger by analyses [4]. The method makes it possible to discern the about 15% in Fedorovskoe than in Ostashkov or Velikie long-term oscillations of climatic variables and to exclude Luki. It can be explained very likely by overwetting of the short-term ones. The 5-years smoothed series were surrounding territory and by large areas covered by forests approximated by the second-order polynomial function to and bogs around Fedorovskoe. For all stations the clarify the main trends and to predict their future changes. interannual variability of precipitation is very high (standard To analyze experimental data the following statistical deviations reach 40-60% of mean values). parameters were calculated: mean air temperature T and 2.3. Modern Temperature and Precipitation Dynamic precipitation P , standard deviations , coefficients of 2.3.1. Observed Temperature Trends skewness As and coefficients of excess Ex (Tables 2 and 3). Analysis of data for Fedorovskoe and Ostashkov stations 2.2. Site Characteristics shows a gradual increase of January and annual temperatures Meteorological station Fedorovskoe (56°30N, 32°50E) for the period from 1961 to 2006. An increase in July is located in the south part of Valday Hills in the Central temperature is clearly manifested only since the nineties Forest State Biosphere Natural Reserve at the watershed of (Fig. 2). Zapadnaya Dvina (Daugava) and Volga. The territory of the The 40-year increase of January temperatures in Reserve is faintly hilly and waterlogged plain, covered with Fedorovskoe and Ostashkov was about 3.9° and 4.2° with natural spruce and small-leaved forests and bogs. The standard deviation of 4.0° and 3.7°, respectively (Table elevation of Fedorovskoe station is 240 m above sea level. 1). For Ostashkov station this growth is statistically The Ostashkov station is situated at the southern coast of significant, however, at the end of 20th century it does not Seliger Lake at 217 m above sea level, about 75 km to the exceed 2. Analysis of longer time series for Fedorovskoe north of Fedorovskoe. The lakes influence on Ostashkov’s station (until 2006) reveals also statistical significance of Fig. (1). Comparison of monthly mean temperature, precipitation rates and their standard deviations in Fedorovskoe (Fed), Ostashkov (Ost) and Velikie Luki (VL) stations. Climatic Conditions of the South Part of Valday Hills, Russia The Open Geography Journal, 2010, Volume 3 75 Fig. (2). Interannual patterns of January (a), July (b) and annual (c) values of air temperature (left) and precipitation (right) in the south part of Valday Hills (stations Fedorovskoe, Fed, and Ostashkov, Ost). January warming. Mean annual temperature at both sites distributions an increase of extreme values is typical, and increased by 0.7° for the period from 1963 to 1999 with outermost values transgress the bounds of ±3 more often =1°.
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