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Packard Georgetown 0076D 1 ESSAYS ON THE ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL IMPACTS OF IMMIGRATION A Dissertation submitted to the Faculty of the Graduate School of Arts and Sciences of Georgetown University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Economics By Michael Minh Tam Packard, BA Washington, DC November 13, 2020 Copyright c 2020 by Michael Minh Tam Packard All Rights Reserved ii ESSAYS ON THE ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL IMPACTS OF IMMIGRATION Michael Minh Tam Packard, BA Dissertation Advisor: Anna Maria Mayda, PhD ABSTRACT This dissertation explores the economic and social impacts of immigration in three essays. In the first chapter, I examine the impact of a large-scale immigration wave into Austria following the Cold War. Using an instrumental variables approach, I estimate the causal effect of immigration on the labor mobility and earnings of native Austrian workers. The immigration shock—which was primarily comprised of low-income blue-collar workers— caused a reallocation of native workers towards white-collar jobs. Panel data on the universe of formal workers allows me to identify the margins underlying this reallocation. Immi- gration did not increase the rate at which blue-collar workers left employment. Instead, immigration increased the rate blue-collar workers transitioned into white-collar jobs and changed the composition of newly hired workers. In the second chapter, I present a dynamic spatial model of labor markets that examines the adjustment process of workers in the presence of imperfect mobility. The model builds on recent models in trade and urban economics and adapts them to highlight margins that are especially important in the context of immigration. Simulations from a hypothetical economy show that a labor supply shock will affect the mobility decisions not only of those in the exposed region, but also in those regions connected through mobility networks. These spillovers highlight potential pitfalls in empirical work that are not always accounted for in empirical studies. iii In the third chapter, Alexander Billy and I calculate the crime effects attributable to the Mariel Boatlift, the 1980 Cuban refugee crisis that increased Miami’s population by nearly 10%. Using synthetic control methods to match Miami with cities that exhibit similar pre- intervention crime patterns, we find evidence the phenomenon comparatively increased property crime and murder rates; we also document weaker but suggestive relative growth in violent crime. Compositional features of the newcomers seemingly drive our results; the disproportionately young, male Cuban’s characteristics highly correlate with illicit activity. Given the group’s unique composition and the absence of rigorous screening, our findings likely constitute the upper bound of migration caused crime. INDEX WORDS: International Economics, International Migration, Labor Economics, Applied Microeconomics, Spatial Economics, Economics of Crime iv ACKNOWLEDGMENTS I am grateful to so many for their support throughout my time at Georgetown. First and foremost, I would like to thank my advisor Anna Maria Mayda for her constant support and guidance. I would also like to thank my committee members, Caglar Ozden and Ferdi- nando Monte. Thank you also to Mathis Wagner, Giovanni Facchini, Walter Steingress and Erhan Artuc for their helpful feedback on my research. Thank you to all of the participants of the Georgetown International Economics Seminar, the GEP/CEPR Conference, SEA Annual Meeting, and George Washington Student Research Conference for your valuable feedback. Thank you to Allison Stashko, Dario Sansone, and Givi Melkadze for the support and advice throughout. Thank you to my Ba, Mom, Dad, Daniel and Imbrie for being supportive and optimistic throughout. Finally, thank you to Ashley Ash for your incredible and unwavering support throughout the whole process, this accomplishment is as much yours as it is mine. v TABLE OF CONTENTS CHAPTER 1 Mass Immigration and the Response of Native Workers: Evidence from Austria1 1.1 Introduction . .1 1.2 Literature Review . .5 1.3 Model . .9 1.4 Background and Data . 13 1.5 Empirical Specification and Identification . 22 1.6 Econometric Results . 29 1.7 Discussion and Conclusions . 37 2 A Dynamic Spatial Model of Immigration and Labor Market Adjustment . 39 2.1 Introduction . 39 2.2 Model . 41 2.3 Results . 47 2.4 Conclusion . 53 3 Crime and the Mariel Boatlift . 55 3.1 Introduction . 55 3.2 Background . 59 3.3 Literature . 60 3.4 Data . 64 3.5 Empirical Approach . 67 3.6 Empirical Evidence . 70 3.7 Discussion and Conclusion . 78 APPENDIX A Chapter 1 Tables and Figures . 85 B Chapter 2 Tables and Figures . 107 C Chapter 3 Supplemental Analysis . 113 C.1 Tables and Figures . 113 C.2 UCR Adjustments . 132 C.3 Adjusting Population Data . 133 C.4 MSAs Ranked by Violent Crime Index . 136 C.5 Predictor Balance . 139 vi C.6 Preferences for 100,000 . 141 BIBLIOGRAPHY ..................................... 144 vii LIST OF FIGURES A.1 Immigrant share of workers by origin country over time . 94 A.2 Immigrant share of workers separated by collar over time . 95 A.3 Income distribution by quintile and collar . 96 A.4 White collar share of workers over time . 97 A.5 Immigrant blue collar wage density relative to natives (1993) . 98 A.6 Actual vs predicted immigrant inflows . 99 A.7 Map of actual vs predicted immigrant inflows . 100 A.8 Heterogeneous effects by income quintile . 101 A.9 Heterogeneous effects by age . 102 A.10 Specification curve - Blue-collar employment growth . 103 A.11 Specification curve - Collar mobility . 104 A.12 Cohort effects by income quintile . 105 A.13 Cohort effects by age . 106 B.1 Baseline results - Labor supply . 108 B.2 Baseline results - Labor mobility . 109 B.3 Baseline results - Real incomes and welfare . 110 B.4 Baseline results - Trade and prices . 110 B.5 Counterfactual results - Incomes and welfare . 111 B.6 Counterfactual results - Mobility . 112 C.1 Annual crime rates (1970-1990) . 116 C.2 SCM results - Property and violent crime . 117 viii C.3 Treatment distribution - Property and violent crime . 118 C.4 P-values - Property and violent crime . 119 C.5 SCM results - Murder and robbery . 120 C.6 Treatment distribution - Murder and robbery crime . 121 C.7 P-values - Murder and robbery . 122 C.8 Placebo test treatment distribution . 123 C.9 Placebo test P-values - Property and violent crime . 124 C.10 Placebo test P-Values - Murder and robbery . 125 C.11 Specification with ICD-9 drug deaths predictor - Treatment distribution . 126 C.12 Specification with ICD-9 drug deaths predictor - P-values . 127 C.13 Specification with population adjustments - Treatment distribution . 128 C.14 Specification with population adjustments - P-values . 129 C.15 Demographic composition and relative crime rates . 130 C.16 FIPS place crime effects and relative exposure to Mariel Cubans . 131 C.17 Population estimates and FBI population statistics . 134 C.18 Crime rates in Florida MSAs . 141 ix LIST OF TABLES A.1 Summary statistics of blue collar workers by income quintile . 85 A.2 Summary statistics of white collar workers by income quintile . 86 A.3 Change in immigrant share among blue-collar workers (%) . 87 A.4 Employment variable definitions . 87 A.5 Pre-period correlates . 88 A.6 Pre-trend analysis . 89 A.7 Regression results - Aggregate employment . 90 A.8 Regression results - Labor market transitions . 91 A.9 Earnings effects by income quintile . 92 A.10 Instrument decomposition . 93 B.1 Baseline parameter values . 107 B.2 Baseline summary statistics . 107 C.1 Demographic characteristics - 1980 Miami . 113 C.2 Number of agencies with complete data . 113 C.3 Population and crime in Miami and donor MSAs . 114 C.4 Donor weights - Property and violent crime . 114 C.5 Donor weights - Murder and robbery . 115 C.6 Predicted treatment effects due to age and gender dynamics . 115 C.7 Accounting of data cleaning . 132 C.8 MSAs ranked by violent crime rates . 136 C.9 MSAs ranked by violent crime rates . 137 x C.10 MSAs ranked by violent crime rates . 138 C.11 Predictor balance for primary estimates - Part 1 . 139 C.12 Predictor balance for primary estimates - Part 2 . 140 C.13 DiD estimates - Treatment effect . 142 C.14 Placebo tests . 142 xi CHAPTER 1 MASS IMMIGRATION AND THE RESPONSE OF NATIVE WORKERS:EVIDENCE FROM AUSTRIA 1.1 INTRODUCTION Over the last three decades immigration, and the economic consequences thereof, has reemerged as one of the preeminent policy issues. The impetus for this revival can be attributed to large-scale migration flows in a number of corridors. These flows include immigration from former communist countries into Western Europe following the Cold War as well as the migration of Mexican and Latin American workers to the United States in the late 1990s and early 2000s.1 In the economics literature, research tends to focus on the effect of immigration on local and national labor markets. Specifically, the effects of immigration on the relative wages and employment of native workers across different skill groups. Most research on this topic builds on the factor proportions model à la Katz and Murphy (1992) and applies this approach to multiple skill and experience groups. Although findings are mixed, research typically finds small negative wage and employment effects for natives who are most similar to immigrants on observable characteristics.2 The limited labor market impacts of immigration, even after relatively large shocks, is still an open question.3 One explanation for this has to do with the imperfect substitutability 1The free movement of European citizens within Europe as well as multiple refugee crises over the same period should also be viewed as important contributors. 2Card (2001), Borjas (2003), Friedberg (2001), Dustmann et al. (2013), Dustmann et al. (2016), Dustmann et al. (2017) 3Borjas (2017); Card (2001); Dustmann et al.
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