DEMOCRATISATION IN ASIA-PACIFIC MONARCHIES: DRIVERS AND IMPEDIMENTS A STUDY OF BHUTAN, TONGA, NEPAL AND THAILAND BY CHRISTINE BOGLE A thesis submitted to the Victoria University of Wellington in fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy Victoria University of Wellington 2019 Abstract In the first decade of the 21st century, Bhutan and Tonga enacted reforms which took executive power away from the monarch and placed it the hands of an elected government. Conversely, Thailand and Nepal have faltered in their trajectory towards democracy. Thailand is stuck in a cycle of repression, popular protest, limited democracy, renewed military takeover, and constitutional revision to allow a controlled “democracy.” Nepal has broken out of a similar cycle (although without military rule), at the cost of abolishing its monarchy. This thesis looks at factors, including the monarchy’s role, which contributed to the different outcomes. The study questions Huntington’s theory of the modernising monarch’s dilemma (fear that reform would do the monarch out of a job), and suggests that, on the contrary, a democratising monarch is more likely to retain the throne, albeit with reduced power. This comparative qualitative study is based on research into primary and secondary sources, plus interviews. The thesis found that in Bhutan and Tonga strong leadership of democratisation by Kings Jigme Singye and George V greatly favoured a successful democratic transition. In both Thailand and Nepal, monarchs Bhumibol and Gyanendra resisted a democratic bargain, seeking instead to retain or regain political power, in a context where popular mobilisation and the role of the military were significant in both countries, but with considerable differences. Contrary to Huntington’s theory, monarchs in Thailand and Nepal, in seeking to avoid loss of political ascendancy suffered the opposite, although to differing degrees (one monarchy was disestablished while the other first gained ground but ultimately ceded ground to the military, reversing a pattern of monarchical dominance in the partnership). The thesis concluded that, against a historical background of special status for the monarch as symbol of national unity, and even in the face of unpromising structural conditions, monarchs who used their charisma to promote and lead a move to democracy were a critical factor in whether a transition would be successful, while securing the future of the monarchy for their heirs. Conversely, monarchs who formed strategic alliances with elite groups seeking to preserve their ascendancy, including the military, provided an excuse to autocratic groups for resisting democracy and risked either a reversion to (or i retention of) autocratic rule or a transition to a democracy that did not include a place for the monarchy. ii Acknowledgements My thanks are due to my supervisors, Professor Jon Fraenkel and Professor Jack Vowles of Victoria University of Wellington, for their support and guidance, which helped bring this project to fruition. I am immensely grateful to the many people who agreed to be interviewed for this study. They not only provided thoughtful responses to my questions but also contributed additional ideas and made useful recommendations of people to approach, all of which enriched the thesis. Of necessity, my interviewees cannot be named here, as their contribution was on the condition of anonymity. Victoria University has nurtured this thesis in more ways than one. My paternal grandparents (Bertha Reeve and Archie Bogle) studied and met at this university, as did my parents (Vivienne Rich and Gilbert Bogle). All my earlier university study was carried out here. The university provided financial support for my study through a field research grant (which assisted my travel to Thailand, Nepal, Bhutan and Tonga) and a PhD submissions scholarship. Lizzie Towl at the Faculty for Graduate Research (FGR) organised a wonderful series of workshops on relevant topics, as well as the superb Thesis Bootcamp. Her efforts were carried forward by Sara Cotterall. Other staff at the FGR and Student Learning Services have provided helpful advice. Colleagues amongst the staff and fellow PhD students in the Political Science and International Relations programme have been collegial companions. The Wellington University of the Third Age (U3A) were kind enough to award me their scholarship in 2017, which was a useful contribution towards my university fees. In addition to my interviewees, a number of friends and contacts helped me by suggesting people to approach and literature to read. Several assisted with programme arrangements for my field research. These include my former colleagues from the New Zealand Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade in Wellington and staff at diplomatic posts in Nuku’alofa, Bangkok, Delhi and Singapore. New Zealand’s Honorary Consul in Kathmandu, Lisa Choegyal, provided many helpful suggestions for the Nepal programme, as did journalist Mikel Dunham. The Bhutanese Embassy in Delhi and Ministry of Foreign Affairs in iii Thimphu (especially Thinley Dorji) were a big help in arranging calls in Bhutan. My visit there would not have been the same without my indomitable guide, Lhamo Drukpa, introduced to me by Bhutan enthusiasts Peter Methven and Clare Murphy. Lose Jenner Helu helped me with Tongan translation and with companionship in Tonga. Several colleagues, friends and family members gave me useful feedback on aspects of my work, including Ian Campbell, the late Guy Powles, Katie Wilson, Anne Bogle and Gib Bogle. Nicholas Farrelly organised helpful roundtable meeting at the Australian National University (ANU) in Canberra with scholars of Thailand. While in Canberra I was fortunate to talk with Mark Turner about Bhutan and Adrian Sever about Nepal. Sue Tanner and the late Bruce Hunt gave supportive friendship during my visit to Canberra and throughout the project. Finally I would like to thank my amazing sons, Toby, Thomas and Luke, for all their love, support and patience while I have been immersed in this study. iv Contents Abstract i Acknowledgements iii Conventions/Abbreviations ix List of tables xi Chapter 1. Introduction 1 The research field 4 Aim, scope and research questions 7 Structure of thesis 8 Chapter 2. Literature and Methods 11 2.1 Definitions of democracy 11 2.2 Theories of democratisation 13 The structural school 13 The agency school 17 Integrated approach 18 Smooth road to consolidation? 18 International influence? 19 Country size 20 2.3 Theorising about monarchies 21 2.4 Country-specific literature 28 Bhutan 28 Tonga 31 Thailand 34 Nepal 40 2.5 Theoretical framework 43 2.5 Methods 44 Limitations on research 48 Chapter 3. Historical and international context 51 v 3.1 Historical context 51 Bhutan 51 Tonga 58 Thailand 63 Nepal 68 3.2 Democratic neighbourhood? 73 Bhutan: no longer India’s minnow? 74 Tonga: a regional exception? 77 Thailand: difficult neighbourhood 80 Nepal: a yam between two boulders 81 3.4 Comparative discussion 83 Chapter 4: Structural context 87 4.1 Modernisation (economic development, education) 89 Bhutan 89 Tonga 91 Thailand 93 Nepal 96 4.2 Inequality, poverty, and class relationships 99 Bhutan 99 Tonga 102 Thailand 105 Nepal 110 4.3 Country size 114 4.4 Comparative discussion 115 Modernisation, economic development and education 115 Inequality, poverty, and class relationships 118 Chapter 5 Monarchy and Democracy 123 5.1 Monarchs’ role 127 vi Bhutan: “the people are more important than the king” 127 Tonga: a tryst with history 134 Thailand: liberal education fails to produce democratic king 142 Nepal: accidental monarch, seeking absolute power, does himself out of a job 148 5.2 Succession: uneasy lies the head that wears a crown 153 5.3 Comparative discussion 156 Chapter 6. Monarchy and Significant Actors 1: Popular Mobilisation 159 6.1 Bhutan 160 6.2 Tonga 162 Noblesse oblige 169 6.3 Thailand’s battle for control: Red Shirts, Yellow Shirts, Thaksinites, networks 171 6.4 Nepal 174 6.5 Comparative discussion 178 Chapter 7. Monarchy and Significant Actors 2: The Military 181 7.1 Thailand: a coup is not a coup 181 7.2 Nepal 185 73 Bhutan and Tonga 187 7.4 Comparative discussion 190 Chapter 8. Crafting or Dismantling Democracy 193 8.1 Development of constitutions 194 Bhutan 195 Tonga 196 Thailand 197 Nepal 199 8.2 Features of the reformed systems 201 Bhutan 201 vii Tonga 204 Thailand 207 Nepal 209 8.3 Comparative discussion 211 Chapter 9. The Monarch’s Constitutional Powers 215 9.1 Examination of powers 216 9.2 Comparative discussion 221 Special status of monarch 221 Ambiguities 224 Monarch’s relationship with parliament 225 Monarch’s relationship with the executive 227 Privy Council 230 Monarch’s powers beyond constitution 232 Constraints on the monarch’s powers 234 9.3 Conclusion 234 Chapter 10. Conclusion 239 10.1 Addressing the research questions 239 10.2 Relationship to the literature 250 10.3 Overall conclusion 254 10.4 Areas for future research 257 Appendix 1. Timelines 259 Appendix 2. Interviewees 267 Bibliography 271 viii Conventions/Abbreviations Thai names In accordance with scholarly convention, this thesis refers to Thai individuals and scholars by their first name. The bibliography cites Thai scholars as “First name second name”. List of abbreviations ABC Australian Broadcasting Commission ADB Asian Development Bank ASEAN Association of South East Asian Nations CEC Constitutional and Electoral Commission [Tonga] CHOGM Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting CPA Comprehensive