00102C 19841122 C06629554

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00102C 19841122 C06629554 C06629554 7 ·(o)(1-).___ ·(oJ(1J-.... ~_._.,._~\J.._ •- ~+:~ ~t .----....~.< !::!.b .u)C~3 J)_ uN!.!:!a~tS~e~e~-A~c~t ---, Document ~_ ________ ....J S"ubj ect: SOIC BRIEFING PAPERC 0588J MIDB D COMET 8 41102 IL-------::=----71 1 12 UPID ............. /.3A/- -··--•D * .... -······ T~RET FRP: (b)(1) (b)(1) (b )(3 Seco.kL_ ______L .n.u,.2LI\I,.,:ill;..a.a.LL<=------L.-------'--. i(b)(1) (b)(3) NatSecAct ---- --- ----~: - ~~~-- (b)(1)·--------- ;~~~-~~~ ---------- -- --- - - -- -- - - -------~(~)(~) ____ ____ __________ - ~~ !~~!-~-~~~~~~~~~ - ~~~-~~- ..._ ---- ----____ ---- ___ ._ {g){3)~~E T .·.... (b)(1) (b)(3) NatSecAct SUBJECT: SO IC BRIEFING PAPER 1 . FOLLOWING IS BRIEFING PAPER FOR PERIOD 5-10 OCT 84 . THis PAPER Is · FoR I 1-r NTERNro.··usin;m.v:···(b )(1) GUERRILLA ACTIVITY DECREASED SIGNIFIC~)~~~~~J\Ct WEEKS OF HIGH LEVEL ACTIVITY. ACTIVITY REMAINED HIGH ONLY IN THE SAN VICENTE AND USULUTAN DEPARTMENTS. ACTIVITY IN CUSCATLAN, SAN SALVADOR, MORAZAN, AND NORTHERN LA UNION DEPARTMENTS DROPPED. ACTIVITY IN EASTERN CHALATENANGO DEPARTMENT WAS DUE TO GOVERNMENT OPERATIONS IN THE AREA. NEW ACTIVITY EMERGED IN THE FORM OF PROPAGANDA ACTION IN THE NORTHERN PORTION OF SANTA ANA DEPARTMENT, AND WITH THE MOVEMENT OF GUERRILLAS BACK INTO THE CERRO SAN PEDRO CAMP SYSTEM. PRIMARY AND SECONDARY GUERRILLA TARGETS, HOWEVER, REMAIN THE SAME AS FOR THE LAST THREE REPORTING PERIODS WITH NO NEW ADDITIONAL TARGETS. RESUPPLY ACTIVITY, THAT RESUMED WITH THE QUARTER MOON ON THE FIRST OF OCTOBER, CONTINUED ALONG THE SALVADORAN COAST FROM THE LEMPA RIVER TO THE GULF OF FONSECA . SEA DELIVERY WAS EXPECTED BETWEEN THE 6-10 OCTOBER TIME FRAME. AIR ACTIVITY WAS NOTED FROM THE 2ND OF OCTOBER IN SANTA. ANA DEP~TMENT, LA PAZ DEPARTMENT AND USULUTAN DEPARTMENT. ANALYST COMMENT: FOUR SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE EMERGED OVER THE LAST EIGHT REPORTING PERIODS AND FIVE OVER THE LAST YEAR . DURING THE LAST YEAR FIVE CHANGES WITHIN THE SALVADORAN MILITARY AND ONE IN THE POLITICAL SPHERE HAVE LED TO THE PRESENT ,GOVERNMENT ADVANTAGE. WHETHER THIS ADVANTAGE WILL CONTINUE, I AM NOT SURE. THE FIVE MILITARY CHANGES HAVE ALLOWED THE SALVADORAN MILITARY TO CONDUCT A MORE COHESIVE, LOGICAL, AND SUCCESSFUL MI LITARY CAMPAIGN. WITH THE APPOINTMENT OF COL. BLANDON AS CHIEF OF STAFF, MILITARY RESPONSE TO THE GUERRILLA PROBLEM HAS TURNED FROM KNEE .(b)O) JERK REACTION TO ONE OF GOOD USE OF INTELLIGENCE DATA TO RUN (b )(3}C!Mct GOVERNMENT SWEEP OPERATIONS IN THE PROPER AREAS, TO RESPOND TO (b)(3) Nal:S~cJ\ct ·-. C06629554 GUERRILLA ATTACKS WITH TH~ PROPER NUMBER AND TYPE OF TROOPS, TO MAINTAIN , TRAIN, AND EQUIP THE MILITARY FORCES, TO RAISE MORALE, AND KEEP HUMAN RIGHTS VIOLATIONS TO A MINIMUM. THE OTHER CHANGES THAT OCCURRED IN THE MILITARY WERE: CONTINUOUS GOVERNMENT SWEEP OPERATIONS WITH ONLY ONE TO TWO WEEKS DOWN FOR TROOPS . THIS HAS REDUCED TROOP TIME IN GARRISONS, AND GIVEN THE TROOPS VALUABLE FIELD EXPERIENCE. TWO, USE OF THE PRAALS HAS NOT ONLY PRODUCED GOOD INTELL C_ FORMATION BUT HAS ··············································(-b·)-(... ). CONFUSED THE GUERRILLAS AS TO THE L......---' A"RM"OF"-O"PERATION·s;·------ 1 CAPABILITIES, AND NUMBER. THE PRAALS ALSO SEEM NOT TO BE (b )(3) NatSeCACt PENETRATED. THREE, DNI INFORMATION, WITH THE ACQUISITION OF A COMPUTER, HAS TRIPLED THE NUMBER OF INTELLIGENCE DATA REPORTS TO THE ESTADO MAYOR AND THIS AGENCY. THIS INFORMATION HAS BEEN ACTED UPON. FOUR, THE NAVY HAS FINALLY JOINED THE WAR EFFORT, ALBEIT IN LIMITED FASHION, PROVIDING SOME CAPABILITY ON THE PART OF THE GOVERNMENT TO RUN ACTIONS IN THE JUCARAN TRIANGLE AREA . THE POLITICAL CHANGE THAT OCCURRED WAS THAT DUARTE GAINED INTERNATIONAL LEGITIMACY AND RECOGNITION. OVER THE LAST EIGHT WEEKS THE CHANGE OF COMMANDERS IN CHALATENANGO DEPARTMENT HAS DECIDEDLY BEEN FOR THE BETTER. GUERRILLAS IN THE CHALATENANGO AREA HAVE RESPONDED THE SAME WAY THE GUERRILLAS DID IN MORAZAN AND NORTHERN SAN MIGUEL WITH THE APPOINTMENT OF MONTERROSA. WE HAVE SEEN, IN ALL THE REPORTING . SOURCES, A DECIDED DROP IN MORALE LEADING TO NUMEROUS DESERTIONS, DISRUPTED RESUPPLY CORRIDORS, AND A MOVEMENT ON THE PART OF THE GUERRILLAS TO SANCTUARIES AWAY FROM HARD TARGETS TO AVOID CONFRONTATION WITH THE GOVERNMENT TROOPS . THIS MOVEMENT HAS BEEN TO CONTESTED AREAS OF THE HONDURAN/SALVADORAN BORDER WHERE THE GUERRILLAS FEEL THEY WILL BE INACCESSIBLE TO GOVERNMENT TROOPS. THIS DISRUPTION OF GUERRILLA ACTIVITY HAS . OCCURRED WHERE EFFECTIVE COMMANDERS ARE USING GOOD INTELLIGENCE DATA AND RUNNING CONTINUOUS SWEEP OPERATIONS IN THE RIGHT AREAS . THIS, IN TURN, HAS LED TO A GUERRILLA RETURN TO TERRORIST ACTIONS IN SMALL NUMBERS BELOW BATTALION STRENGTH AND LOW LEVEL ACTIVITY FOR NINE OUT OF TWELVE WEEKS WITH NO MAJOR TARGETS HIT. IF A CHANGE OF COMMANDERS, LIKE THOSE MADE IN MORAZAN WITH MONTERROSA AND IN CHALATENANGO WITH OCHOA, COULD BE MADE IN USULUTAN AND SAN VICENTE, I THINK THE SALVADORAN MILITARY COULD CONTAIN THE GUERRILLA PROBLEM. THE PROBLEM WILL ALWAYS BE THERE, BUT IT COULD BE CONTAINED AND THE GOVERNMENT COULD THEN TURN TO RESTORING THE ECONOMY. HOWEVER, THREE OTHER CHANGES SEEM TO BE EMERGING AND I AM NOT SURE WHAT THEIR RESULT WILL BE . -THE REACTIVATION OF THE WESTERN FRONT WITH A REACTIVATION OF THE GUATEMALAN RESUPPLY LINES TO EL SALVADOR WILL CREATE A NEW PROBLEM FOR THE GOVERNMENT. -HONDURAS SEEMS TO BE UNDERGOING A CHANGE IN ATTITUDE TOWARDS THE UNITED STATES . THIS , COUPLED WITH WHAT SEEMS TO BE AN INADEQUATE PERCEPTION ON THEIR PART AS TO THE GUERRILLA PROBLEM ALONG THE SALVADORAN BORDER, AND THEIR INABI LITY TO RESPOND TO INTELLIGENCE DATA, LEAVES THE SALVADORAN GUERRILLAS WITH SANCTUARIES IN WHICH TO CONTINUE TO REGROUP, RESUPPLY, AND CONCENTRATE. AS HAS BEEN SEEN WITH THE GOVERNMENT SWEEP OPERATIONS AND PROPER USE OF INTELLIGENCE DATA, THE GUERRILLAS CANNOT BE ALLOWED TO CONCENTRATE IN LARGE NUMBERS IN INACCESSIBLE AREAS. - THE CONTADORA PROPOSAL AND DUARTE'S U.N. SPEECH ARE TIED, I THINK, TO REPORTING FROM THE LAST EIGHT WEEKS . SOME OF THIS REPORTING I HESITATED USING AT THE TIME AND SOME OF IT LOOKED DUBIOUS AT BEST. HOWEVER, AFTER REVIEWING THE MATERIAL, SOME C06629554 TO~RET 7 GENERAL THEMES SEEM TO BE EMERGING. WITH DUARTE GAINING INTERNATIONAL LEGITIMACY, THE GUERRILLAS SEEM TO BE TURNING TO A REACTIVATION OF THE LABOR FRONT. THIS IS TO BE DONE IN ORDER TO REGAIN DOMESTIC AND FOREIGN SUPPORT BY AROUSING DISSATISFACTION WITH ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE. THEY VIEW THIS AS A KEY VULNERABILITY OF DUARTE'S GOVERNMENT. I ]-RBP0RT-:ENG--0F--A--PeES··STUDY--oN -THE--ECONOJI'!Y ' "INDTCATE"S"' ...... (b)( 1) THAT THE PCES URGED THE GUERRILLAS TO ACCEPT NEGOTIATIONS WITH DUARTE BECAUSE THE GUERRILLAS' MILITARY COMPONENT COULD NOT WIN (b)(3) NatSecAct AN OVERALL VICTORY AND IF GUERRILLA OPERATIONS CONTINUED AGAINST ECONOMIC TARGETS, THE ECONOMY WILL EVENTUALLY BE OF LITTLE USE TO EITHER THE RIGHT OR THE LEFT. THE PCES STUDY PROPOSED THE FOLLOWING PLAN: - USE INTERNATIONAL PRESIDENTS AND FOREIGN GOVERNMENTS TO URGE DUARTE TO NEGO TIATE WITH THE GUERRILLAS. (WE HAVE SEEN THIS HAPPEN IN THE DISCUSSION WITH DUARTE AND BETANCUR FROM COLUMBIA.) - USE HUMINITARIAN ORGANIZATIONS TO URGE DUARTE TO NEGOTIATE. - USE INTERNATIONAL LABOR ORGANIZATIONS TO PRESSURE DUARTE TO NEGOTIATE. THIS WE SEE HAPPENING WITH THE SOCIALIST INTERNATIONAL INVOLVEMENT IN THE LA PALMA MEETING, AND A SHIFT OF EMPHASIS OF THE PART OF THE GUERRILLAS TO INTERNAL LABOR ORGANIZATIONS. - USE MAJOR INTERNATIONAL CHURCH OFFICIALS TO PERSUADE DUARTE . ONCE THE NEGOTIATIONS BEGIN HOWEVER, THE~ --~~~Q . SETTL"E· ·· (b)(1) ONLY FOR POWER SHARING AS THE BAS~~-- ~9-~ - AGR-EEMENT · lb)(3) N tS A t ,-----------..nUT'tALLY SHELVED, INDICATED THA'!\ a 9C C THE NICARAGUAN MILITARY AID TO THE SALVADORAN GUERRILLAS WOmJ) ... BE CUT BECAUSE OF NICARAGUAN AGREEMENT ~J:tli-T-HE · CONTADORA_____ (b)(1) . GROUP. AN ADDIT ION .R£PORT ' t NDICATED THAT THE GUERRILLAS (b)(3) NatSecAct WERE UNHAPPY BECAUSE THE NICARAGUANS HAD NOT CONSULTED WITH THE GUERRILLAS PRIOR TO THE FINAL DRAFT OF THE CONTADORA PAPER . THEY FELT THEY HAD BEEN SHUT OUT . THIS COULD ACCOUNT FOR THE SHIFT OF RESUPPLY TO THE GUATEMALAN BORDER WITH EL SALVADOR. ALSO, THE FMLN STRUCTURE HAS BEEN ON UNEASY FOOTING WITH THE NICARAGUANS SINCE THE U.S. INVASION OF GRENADA WITH SOME ELEMENTS MOVING TO MEXICO CITY. THE SALVADORAN GUERRILLAS+ EVALUATION OF THE CONTADORA AGREEMENT PUTS MEXICO, VENEZUELA, HONDURAS AND GUATEMALA IN THE UNUSABLE CATEGORY: MEXICO, BECAUSE THEY FEEL IT IS MOVING UNDER THE SWAY OF THE U.S. AND IS BECOMING MORE RIGHT WING; GUATEMALA, BECAUSE THEIR ECONOMY IS OKAY AND THEY PREFER NOT TO HAVE U.S . INVOLVEMENT IN THEIR COUNTRY; HONDURAS THEY FEEL IS UNDERGOING A POLITICAL CHANGE AWAY FROM THE U.S., BUT IS STILL RIGHT WING. VENEZUELA, THEY FEEL, IS TIED UP WITH ITS OWN INTERNAL POLITICS AND IS ALSO MOVING TO THE RIGHT. HOWEVER, THE GUERRILLAS FEEL THAT WITH THE NEW BARLETTA GOVERNMENT IN PANAMA, PANAMA CAN BE USED AS A BRIDGE AND A MEDIATOR IN NEGOTIATIONS WITH DUARTE. COLUMBIA, BECAUSE OF BETANCUR, COULD BE USED PUBLICLY AND HE IS A GOOD IMAGE MEDIATOR. THE FINAL PIECE OF INFORMATION ALSO DISMISSED AT FIRST, . WA k--.;;-;;;---..==-----=-==:--:;:-:-::--::-::-:=::---7'-======-=~ ·REFIORTiNG-- (b)( 1 ) THAT THE CUBAN PRE SIDENT HAD ISSUED A STATEMENT THROUGH A (b)(3) NatSecAct RELIABLE EMISSARY URGING DUARTE TO NEGOTIATE WITH THE GUERRILLAS . WHAT EMERGED, OF INTEREST, WAS DUARTE 1 S RE'SPONSE IDENTICAL TO THE U.N. SPEECH HE MADE LAST MONDAY. C06629554 TO~ RET 7 I AM UNSURE WHERE ALL OF THE ABOVE WILL LEAD, BUT I AM SEEING A SUBTLE CHANGE ON THE PART OF THE GUERRILLAS ON THE BATTLEFIELD, IN PROPAGANDA ACTIVITIES, AND IN RESUPPLY. THIS COULD BE AN EFFORT TO ENTER NEGOTIATIONS WITH DUARTE ON A MORE EVEN FOOTING, OR IT MAY BY AN AWARENESS THAT NEGOTIATIONS USUALLY DO NOT BENEFIT THE HOST GOVERNMENT BUT THEY DO BUY TIME FOR THE GUERRILLAS TO WAIT OUT EVENTS THAT ARE UNFAVORABLE TO THEM.
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