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Page 1 for Further Information, Contact Integrity UK On: Info@Integrityuk A B O U T I N T E G R I T Y U K Integrity UK is an organisation committed to preventing extremism through innovative approaches to promoting integration, cohesion and social reconciliation within the MENA region and the UK. S Y R I A I N T E L L I G E N C E R E P O R T 3rd August 2018 In an interview with the pro-Government al-Watan newspaper on Thursday, China's Ambassador to Syria, Qi Qianjin, suggested that China would be willing to support the Syrian Arab Army (SAA) if it launches an offensive in Idlib and in other parts of the country. Qi did not provide further elaboration and other members of the Chinese Government have since noted that the matter would be subject to a “political decision”. Although Beijing provided Damascus with economic and political support throughout the war, it has shied away from military involvement due to its long-standing policy of non-intervention. However, the country believes that Uighur foreign fighters, represented predominantly by the Turkistan Islamic Party (TIP), represent a direct threat to its security and has therefore shown willingness to shift from its traditional stance on the matter. In addition to reaching out to Damascus, there have also been rumours of Beijing reaching out to Ankara to obtain Turkish acquiescence for operations in Idlib in return for economic investment. How that plays with Russian statements of an Idlib operation being “out of the question” remains to be seen. Although Moscow could wash its hands of the whole affair and let Damascus and Beijing take the lead in Idlib, the likelihood of any blowback reaching back to Russia (or of damage to the regional credibility it built) is too high a risk for the country to turn a blind eye to the brewing situation. On Friday, the Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan commented on the worsening ties between Turkey and the United States. In particular, Erdoğan referred to the situation in Syria, reassuring that despite the state of “economic war”, the joint roadmap between Ankara and Washington over Manbij would not be impacted. Despite his comments, both the Syrian Democratic Council (SDC) and Damascus are set to take advantage of the worsening ties between the two allies and may attempt to play as spoilers to cause further setbacks for Ankara. On Thursday evening, the head of the newly-formed Future of Syria Party (FSP), Muthanna Abdul Karim, announced that the party will open offices in government-held areas like Suweida and the city of Douma in Damascus in the coming days. The fact that the party, which is considered the political party of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), is becoming active in government-held areas, suggests that the talks between the Syrian Government and the SDC have borne some fruit. The Syrian Government likely hopes to co-opt the FSP in a similar manner to how the Syrian Social Nationalist Party (SSNP) has been co-opted as part of the “loyal opposition”. The FSP’s choice of Suweida, in particular, is curious. The region, represented by the Druze minority, has been in a state of de-facto autonomy throughout the war, albeit an autonomy that is less formal than that of the SDC. The FSP may bank on the local demand for continued autonomy (amidst rumours of Damascus flexing its political muscle in Suweida) as a means to build a support base. If that is the case, then the history of the SSNP, whose alliance with Damascus was interrupted by periods of persecution and repression, should be instructive for the FSP. For further information, contact Integrity UK on: [email protected] Two hitherto-unknown rebel groups by the name of Ansar al-Haqq and Abna al-Sharia have announced that they will join the Hilf Nusrat al-Islam coalition led by Tanzim Hurras al-Din and Ansar al- Tawhid (formerly Jund al-Aqsa). The fact that al-Qaeda-sympathetic groups are increasingly coalescing into coalitions could be indicative of the increased threat perception towards the National Liberation Front (NLF), which recently became the largest rebel faction after absorbing numerous factions including Jabhat Tahrir Suriya (JTS). The al-Qaeda loyalist factions, however, will remain outnumbered and outgunned unless they attempt to reconcile and merge with Hayy'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and perhaps even absorb scattered remnants of the Islamic State (IS) in Idlib. Amidst these developments, clashes across Syria have continued. The frontlines of the Greater Idlib region continue to witness a steady uptick of clashes. Over the course of Thursday and Friday, the SAA shelled the village of Shagur in Idlib and the villages of Ziyarah, Qastun, Msheek and Qarqur in northwestern Hama. Pro-rebel sources also claimed that a number of loyalist fighters were killed in an ambush near Sirmaniyah. Further north, the HTS has reportedly shelled the Qastillo Road, the districts of Muhandisin and Hamdaniya, and the nearby 1070 Housing Complex. Loyalist news sources reported that four civilians were killed in the Muhandisin shelling. Rebel news sources claimed that the only ones killed were loyalist fighters and that the shelling was in retaliation for the shelling at the Rashidin Housing Complex earlier this week. The HTS, meanwhile, conducted numerous arrests across the Idlib Province. While a number of arrests in Khan Sheikhoun were reportedly linked to the IS, pro-Opposition news sources also claimed that 17 people were arrested for “promoting reconciliation” with the Syrian Government. HTS Security Commander Hamza al-Farouk said that the group would not allow for the repeat of what happened in Daraa to happen in Idlib. This suggests that Damascus may have been making inroads in reconciliation efforts in some parts of Idlib and these developments are causing waves among rebel factions. A very similar process took place in Daraa in the lead-up to the SAA operations in the region earlier this year. The group’s main rival, the JTS, had also arrested members of local councils for partaking in talks. Meanwhile, shootings and assassination attempts in Idlib continue. A German foreign militant of the HTS was injured when he was shot in an IS ambush near Ariha. An unnamed civilian was injured by unidentified gunmen near the Idlib City centre. The People's Protection Units (YPG) issued a new statement, claiming new attacks on Turkish forces and their allies in the Afrin region between Saturday and Thursday. The group claimed that a car carrying Ahrar al-Sham (now part of the NLF) was blown up near the village of Burj Haidar on Saturday, with the casualties undetermined. On Sunday, four Hamza Brigade fighters and a Turkish soldier was reported killed in Basutah. On Thursday, three rebel fighters and a Turkish soldier were killed near the village of Kimara. All the attacks took place in the Sherewa District south of Afrin City. On Thursday night, there were reports of Syrian Air Defence units intercepting a “hostile target” over Damascus City. Russian media and some pro-Government sources claimed that a drone and three missiles, likely to be Israeli, were shot down. Neither the Israeli nor the Syrian governments have issued any statements on the matter. For further information, contact Integrity UK on: [email protected] .
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