Chapter 1 - Watersheds and Landscapes 1.1 Population 1.2 Current Land Cover 1.3 Land Cover Change 1.4 Impervious Cover 1.5 Public Open Space 1.6 Public Access Points 1.7 Natural Capital Value PDE Logos in 4-Color Process (CMYK) THIS IS THE NEW LOGO December, 2017 | Report No.17-07 A publication of the Partnership for the Delaware Estuary—A National Estuary Program Symbol Alone Logo with stacked type Type Alone 1. Watersheds and Landscapes 1.1 Population Kelly Somers1, Gerald Kauffman2, and Andrew Homsey2 1. United States Environmental Protection Agency, Region III; 2. University of Delaware 1.1.1 Description of Indicator Population is the total number of people in a given area. This indicator quantifies the human population within the Delaware River Basin based on data from the American Community Survey and the U.S. Census, Decennial Census and American Community Survey 5-year estimates 2011-2015. The size of the population is important to managers in the region because water quality (pollution) and quantity (water supply and flooding) impacts are directly proportionate to the number of inhabiting people. Population growth will increase demands on infrastructure and will spur development, resulting in increased impervious surfaces and runoff. Change in population aids the prediction of shifts in land cover types. As population increases, increasing demands on the land will lead to the conversion of forest and agricultural land to more developed uses. As agriculture land is developed, there is also more pressure on forested land to be converted to agriculture. 1.1.2 Present Status The Delaware River Basin occupies 12,770 square miles (not including the open water of the River and Bay) in Delaware (containing about 8% of the land area), Maryland (<1%), New Jersey (23%), New York (20%), and Pennsylvania (49%). Population data from the 2015 American Community Survey (Table 1.1.1, Figure 1.1.1; ACS 5-year survey, 2011-2015) indicates 8,338,000 residents live in the Basin, including 723,000 people in Delaware (9%), 6,500 in Maryland (<1%), 1,946,000 in New Jersey (23%), 120,000 in New York (1%), and 5,542,000 in Pennsylvania (67%). In 2009, nearly 3,500,000 people worked in the Delaware River Basin with 316,000 jobs in Delaware (9%), 1,100 jobs in Maryland, 823,000 jobs in New Jersey (24%), 69,800 jobs in New York (2%), and 2,271,000 jobs in Pennsylvania (65%). Table 1.1.1 Land area, population, and employment in the Delaware River Basin by state. Area Population1 Employment2 State mi2 (km2) 2015 2009 Delaware 965 (2,500) 723,219 316,014 Maryland 9 (23) 6,581 1,172 New Jersey 2,961 (7,669) 1,946,526 823,294 New York 2,555 (6,617) 120,055 69,858 Pennsylvania 6,280 (16,265) 5,542,318 2,271,317 Total 12,770 (33,074) 8,338,698 3,481,655 PDE Logos in 4-Color Process (CMYK) 1. American Community Survey; 2. U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics THIS IS THE NEW LOGO 18 December, 2017 | Report No.17-07 A publication of the Partnership for the Delaware Estuary—A National Estuary Program Symbol Alone Logo with stacked type Type Alone The population of the Delaware River Basin now exceeds 8.3 million people which, if considered as a single jurisdiction, would be the 13th most populous state in the U.S. after New Jersey and Virginia. Table 1.1.2 summarizes the area, population, and employment by state and county in the Delaware River Basin. In Delaware, the Basin covers 50% of the State’s area yet includes 78% of the population. The New Jersey portion of the Basin covers 40% of the State’s land area and includes 22% of the population. New York State covers 5% of the State’s land area and the Basin includes 0.6% of the population. The Pennsylvania part of the Basin covers just 14% of the State’s area yet includes 43% of the population. The current distribution of population among the states in the Basin is shown in Figure 1.1.1. The majority of the Basin’s population resides in Pennsylvania at 5,542,318 (66.5%), followed by New Jersey at about 2 million (23.3%), Delaware at 700,000 (8.7%), New York at 120,055 (1.4%), and Maryland at 6,581 (0.1%). Table 1.1.2 summarizes the total amount of people in the counties of the Delaware Bay. Figure 1.1.4 summarized population sizes per state from 200-2015. Table 1.1.3 divides population sizes by ecoregion. 1.1.3 Past Trends Tracking changes and trends in population is critical for predicting future land cover and resource usage. These trends can help managers target critical locations for preservation and natural resource management. Population increases put higher strains on resources such as drinking water and wastewater management. Population trends provide a helpful indicator to predict future landscape changes in the Basin. Between 2000 and 2015, the population in the Delaware River Basin increased by more than 575,000 people (7%) (Table 1.1.4). Within a 5-year period (2010-2015), the Delaware River Basin increased by more than 182,000 people (1%). Over those same 5 years, population increased by 4,800 (3%) in Kent and Sussex counties, Delaware. In Philadelphia County, population grew by 30,100 people (2%). Targeting land and water management strategies in these counties Totalwould bePopulation beneficial toin the Basin, Basin bydue State, to their 2015 higher risk for development and associated impacts. See FiguresTotal 1.1.5-1.18 Population for other in representationsBasin, by State, of population 2015 changes in the Estuary and Basin. 723,219; 8.7% 723,219; 8.7% 6,581; 0.1% 6,581; 0.1% 1,946,526; 23.3% 1,946,526; 23.3% 120,055; 1.4% 120,055; 1.4% 5,542,318; 66.5% 5,542,318; 66.5% Delaware Maryland New Jersey New York Pennsylvania PDE Logos in 4-ColorDelaware Process (CMYK)Maryland New Jersey New York Pennsylvania Figure 1.1.1 Population size by state (Source: American Community Survey, THIS IS THE NEW LOGO 2015) in the Delaware River Basin. 19 December, 2017 | Report No.17-07 A publication of the Partnership for the Delaware Estuary—A National Estuary Program A publication of the Partnership for the Delaware Estuary—A National Estuary Program Symbol Alone Logo with stacked type Type Alone Table 1.1.2 Land area, population, and employment by county in the Delaware River Basin for A) Maryland, New Jersey, New York; and B) Delaware, Pennsylvania. 1 2 1 2 20 A. State/ Area 2015 Population 3 B. State/ Area 2015 Population 3 2 Employment 2 Employment County (mi ) 2015 County (mi ) 2015 December, 2017|ReportNo.17-07 December, Cecil 9 6,581 1,172 Kent 400 147,758 50,412 Maryland 9 6,581 1,172 New Castle 439 528,721 252,534 Atlantic 14 5,633 - Sussex 205 46,713 13,068 Burlington 498 440,646 - Delaware 1,043 723,219 316,014 Camden 122 442,534 187,758 Berks 777 400,022 150,665 Cape May 106 29,924 169,909 Bucks 620 624,212 244,453 Cumberland 505 156,840 14,545 Carbon 389 65,180 16,730 Gloucester 280 261,123 61,868 Chester 616 464,036 212,996 Hunterdon 173 33,246 89,183 Delaware 189 555,364 201,208 Mercer 137 272,225 23,650 Lackawanna 69 6,493 4,830 Monmouth 62 12,492 178,320 Lancaster 3 988 - Morris 42 30,668 9,864 Lebanon 53 17,720 2,750 Ocean 77 11,769 - Lehigh 345 350,388 166,932 Salem 354 65,274 7,495 Luzerne 135 22,972 8,074 Sussex 314 77,310 21,900 Monroe 613 166,778 56,025 Warren 361 106,843 23,302 Montgomery 487 815,305 453,771 New Jersey 3,045 1,946,526 35,500 Northampton 377 306,094 96,536 Broome 82 2,454 11,292 Philadelphia 142 1,555,468 619,396 Chenango 3 102 - Pike 564 56,318 9,874 Delaware 1,145 32,000 14,240 Schuylkill 383 84,943 27,077 Greene 23 274 572 Wayne 695 50,037 14,114 Orange 80 18,086 10,456 Pennsylvania 6,457 5,542,318 2,271,317 Schoharie 4 144 - Delaware 12,947 8,338,698 3,481,655 Sullivan 900 66,078 25,511 River Basin PDE Logos in 4-Color Process (CMYK) Ulster 156 917 7,787 THIS IS THE NEW LOGO 1. NOAA CSC 2010; 2. American Community Survey, 5-year New York 2,393 120,055 69,858 survey, 2011-2015; 3. U. S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 2009. A publication of the Partnership for the Delaware Estuary—A National Estuary Program Symbol Alone Logo with stacked type Type Alone 6,000,000 2000 2010 2015 5,000,000 4,000,000 3,000,000 Population 2,000,000 1,000,000 0 Delaware Maryland New Jersey New York Pennsylvania State Figure 1.1.2 Population in the Delaware River Basin by state. (Source: American Community Survey, 5-year survey, 2011-2015 & U.S. Census Bureau). Table 1.1.3 Population in Delaware River Basin regions (see Fig 0.5 for region designations), 2000-2010 (U.S. Census Bureau & American Community Survey). Population Size Region 2000 2010 2015 Upper 188,051 199,815 198,341 Central 1,191,789 1,326,600 1,319,614 Lower 6,005,528 6,288,188 6,354,257 Bayshore 376,009 439,676 449,171 Whole Basin 7,761,377 8,254,279 8,321,383 PDE Logos in 4-Color Process (CMYK) THIS IS THE NEW LOGO 21 December, 2017 | Report No.17-07 A publication of the Partnership for the Delaware Estuary—A National Estuary Program A publication of the Partnership for the Delaware Estuary—A National Estuary Program Symbol Alone Logo with stacked type Type Alone Table 1.1.4 Population size (in thousands) and population change (2000-2015) by county in the Delaware River Basin for A) Maryland, New Jersey, New York; and B) Delaware, Pennsylvania.