THE CLIMATOLOGY of the DELAWARE BAY/SEA BREEZE By

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THE CLIMATOLOGY of the DELAWARE BAY/SEA BREEZE By THE CLIMATOLOGY OF THE DELAWARE BAY/SEA BREEZE by Christopher P. Hughes A dissertation submitted to the Faculty of the University of Delaware in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science in Marine Studies Summer 2011 Copyright 2011 Christopher P. Hughes All Rights Reserved THE CLIMATOLOGY OF THE DELAWARE BAY/SEA BREEZE by Christopher P. Hughes Approved: _____________________________________________________ Dana E. Veron, Ph.D. Professor in charge of thesis on behalf of the Advisory Committee Approved: _____________________________________________________ Charles E. Epifanio, Ph.D. Director of the School of Marine Science and Policy Approved: _____________________________________________________ Nancy M. Targett, Ph.D. Dean of the College of Earth, Ocean, and Environment Approved: _____________________________________________________ Charles G. Riordan, Ph.D. Vice Provost for Graduate and Professional Education ACKNOWLEDGMENTS Dana Veron, Ph.D. for her guidance through the entire process from designing the proposal to helping me create this finished product. Daniel Leathers, Ph.D. for his continual assistance with data analysis and valued recommendations. My fellow graduate students who have supported and helped me with both my research and coursework. This thesis is dedicated to: My family for their unconditional love and support. My wonderful fiancée Christine Benton, the love of my life, who has always been there for me every step of the way. iii TABLE OF CONTENTS LIST OF TABLES ......................................................................................................... vi LIST OF FIGURES ..................................................................................................... vii ABSTRACT .................................................................................................................... x Chapter 1 INTRODUCTION .............................................................................................. 1 1.1 Motivation ............................................................................................... 1 1.2 Sea Breeze Formation and Structure ....................................................... 3 1.3 Sea Breeze Observations......................................................................... 4 1.3.1 Radar Detection ....................................................................... 4 1.3.2 Satellite Data ............................................................................ 5 1.3.3 Meteorological Station Data .................................................... 6 1.4 Importance .............................................................................................. 7 1.4.1 Tourism .................................................................................... 7 1.4.2 Pollution ................................................................................... 8 1.4.3 Wind Power .............................................................................. 9 1.5 Literature Review.................................................................................. 10 1.5.1 Theoretical Sea Breeze Model ............................................... 10 1.5.2 New Jersey Sea Breeze .......................................................... 11 1.5.3 What Affects a Sea Breeze? ................................................... 12 1.5.4 Past Study of Delaware Winds ............................................... 14 2 DATA ACQUISITION ...................................................................................... 24 2.1 Observation Data .................................................................................. 24 2.2 Modeling Data ...................................................................................... 28 2.2.1 Introduction ............................................................................ 28 2.2.2 Data Forcing ........................................................................... 28 iv 2.2.3 Run Time Options / Schemes ................................................. 29 2.2.4 WRF Represented Coastline .................................................. 30 3 SOUTHER DELAWARE WIND CLIMATOLOGY ........................................ 34 3.1 Introduction ........................................................................................... 34 3.2 Data Validity ......................................................................................... 34 3.3 Buoy #44009 ......................................................................................... 36 3.4 Wind Roses ........................................................................................... 37 3.5 WRF Wind Direction Comparison ........................................................ 41 3.6 WRF/OBS Time Series Analysis .......................................................... 44 3.7 Summary ............................................................................................... 45 4 DELAWARE BAY/SEA BREEZE ................................................................... 61 4.1 Introduction ........................................................................................... 61 4.2 Sea Breeze Detection Program ............................................................. 68 4.3 WRF Sea Breeze Detection Program .................................................... 73 4.4 Observed Sea Breeze Results................................................................ 76 4.5 WRF Sea Breeze Results ...................................................................... 84 4.6 WRF/OBS Sea Breeze Case Study ....................................................... 87 4.6.1 Case 1: Strong West Synoptic Winds (7/3/2009) ................... 88 4.6.2 Case 2: Missed Synoptic Scenario (6/9/2009) ....................... 88 4.6.3 Case 3: Accurate Sea Breeze Representation (7/17/09) ......... 89 4.6.4 Case 4: WRF Coastal Ocean Sea Breeze (8/2/2009) ............. 90 4.6.5 Case 5: WRF Missing an Observed Sea Breeze (7/12/2009) ............................................................................. 91 4.6.6 Summary ................................................................................ 91 4.7 Sea Breeze Forecasting ......................................................................... 92 4.8 Return Flow Analysis ............................................................................ 94 5 SUMMARY .................................................................................................... 124 REFERENCES ........................................................................................................... 126 v LIST OF TABLES Table 2.1: Obs. station distance from water bodies ................................................ 33 Table 3.1: Obs. station wind direction by land type (2005-2009) .......................... 55 Table 3.2: Obs. station wind direction diurnal difference (2005-2009) .................. 56 Table 3.3: WRF wind direction by land type (2009) .............................................. 57 Table 3.4: WRF wind direction diurnal difference (2009) ...................................... 58 Table 3.5: WRF grid cell comparison by land type (2009) ..................................... 59 Table 3.6: Obs./WRF comparison statistics (2009) ................................................ 60 Table 4.1: Sea breeze classification scheme ......................................................... 119 Table 4.2: Obs. station sea breeze frequency (2005-2009) ................................... 120 Table 4.3: Arrival time of the classic sea breeze ................................................... 121 Table 4.4: Obs. station sea breeze correlation along the coast .............................. 122 Table 4.5: Obs. station sea breeze predictability based on conditions at 8 am (DBBB).................................................................. 123 vi LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1.1: Meteorological stations of interest ....................................................... 16 Figure 1.2: Representation of a sea breeze circulation ........................................... 17 Figure 1.3: NEXRAD Radar detected sea breeze front over Delaware (KDOV) .. 18 Figure 1.4: NOAA satellite detected sea breeze front over Florida ........................ 19 Figure 1.5: NREL projection of Delaware's wind power resource ......................... 20 Figure 1.6: Offshore wind energy areas for possible development ........................ 21 Figure 1.7: GE Energy idealized power curve for a wind turbine .......................... 22 Figure 1.8: Geophysical variables that control a sea breeze ................................... 23 Figure 2.1: Domains used in WRF ......................................................................... 31 Figure 2.2: WRF Grid cell representation of obs. stations ..................................... 32 Figure 3.1: Annual obs. station wind roses (2005-2009) ........................................ 47 Figure 3.2: Temperature time series for buoy #44009 (1984-2009) ....................... 48 Figure 3.3: Buoy #44009 wind roses for 1984-2009 and 2005-2009 ..................... 49 Figure 3.4: Regional strength of dominant wind directions (2005-2009) .............. 50 Figure 3.5: Obs. /WRF wind rose comparison by season: DBNG (2009) .............. 51 Figure 3.6: Location of selected grid cell pairs in WRF ......................................... 52 Figure 3.7: Obs./WRF wind comparison at BRND1 (Jan./Jul. 2009) .................... 53 Figure 3.8: Obs./WRF temperature comparison
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