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The Distribution of Climate Change Public Opinion in Canada

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The Distribution of Climate Change Public Opinion in Canada RESEARCH ARTICLE The Distribution of Climate Change Public Opinion in Canada Matto Mildenberger1☯*, Peter Howe2☯, Erick Lachapelle3☯, Leah Stokes1☯, Jennifer Marlon4☯, Timothy Gravelle5 1 Department of Political Science, University of California Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, California, United States of America, 2 Department of Environment and Society, Utah State University, Logan, Utah, United States of America, 3 Department of Political Science, Université de Montréal, Montreal, Québec, Canada, 4 School of Forestry and Environmental Studies, Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut, United States of America, 5 Department of Government, University of Essex, Essex, United Kingdom a11111 ☯ These authors contributed equally to this work. * [email protected] Abstract While climate scientists have developed high resolution data sets on the distribution of cli- OPEN ACCESS mate risks, we still lack comparable data on the local distribution of public climate change Citation: Mildenberger M, Howe P, Lachapelle E, opinions. This paper provides the first effort to estimate local climate and energy opinion Stokes L, Marlon J, Gravelle T (2016) The variability outside the United States. Using a multi-level regression and post-stratification Distribution of Climate Change Public Opinion in Canada. PLoS ONE 11(8): e0159774. doi:10.1371/ (MRP) approach, we estimate opinion in federal electoral districts and provinces. We dem- journal.pone.0159774 onstrate that a majority of the Canadian public consistently believes that climate change is ’ Editor: Henrik Österblom, Stockholms Universitet, happening. Belief in climate change s causes varies geographically, with more people SWEDEN attributing it to human activity in urban as opposed to rural areas. Most prominently, we find every Received: February 18, 2016 majority support for carbon cap and trade policy in province and district. By contrast, support for carbon taxation is more heterogeneous. Compared to the distribution of US cli- Accepted: July 6, 2016 mate opinions, Canadians believe climate change is happening at higher levels. This new Published: August 3, 2016 opinion data set will support climate policy analysis and climate policy decision making at Copyright: © 2016 Mildenberger et al. This is an national, provincial and local levels. open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. Data Availability Statement: Our data has been Introduction deposited with the Harvard University Dataverse, Climate change poses a pressing global challenge. Yet, success in meeting this challenge will where it will be available for use without restriction. depend on national public policies. In turn, effective and durable greenhouse gas reduction pol- The dataset can be accessed at: http://dx.doi.org/10. 7910/DVN/IF8AO0. Its full citation is: "Mildenberger, icies require public support. As the ninth largest emitter of greenhouse gases, Canada is one Matto, 2016, "The distribution of climate change important country that needs to enact ambitious climate policy [1]. Since 1990, oil and gas public opinion in Canada", http://dx.doi.org/10.7910/ development from the country’s abundant supply of unconventional oil sands bitumen has DVN/IF8AO0, Harvard Dataverse, V1 [UNF:6: driven Canada’s emissions growth, a trend projected to continue to 2020 [2, 3]. These oil sands h06KqVJk4k6OOrqr6GnSdA==]." Our data will also emissions are significant globally–Alberta’s proven oil reserves represent about one eighth of be available for public download on institutional servers at Universite de Montreal (http://umontreal.ca/ the total global warming potential from global reserves [4]. Canada is also among the largest climat/) and Yale University (http://environment.yale. fossil fuel producing countries, ranking fifth in crude oil, fifth in natural gas, and twelfth in edu/ycom/canada/2016/). coal production [5]. PLOS ONE | DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0159774 August 3, 2016 1/14 The Distribution of Climate Change Public Opinion in Canada Funding: This research was supported by funding At the same time, negative climate change impacts are also disproportionately affecting from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Canada due to Arctic amplification at high latitudes [6]. Sea ice loss, thawing permafrost, and Council of Canada (grant number 410-2011-2765, coastal erosion are already accelerating [7–9], and impacts from extreme weather such as EL, http://www.sshrc-crsh.gc.ca/home-accueil-eng. – aspx), the Fonds de Recherche du Québec - Société droughts, flooding, and heat waves [10 12], as well as ecological disturbances such as wildfires et Culture (grant number 2012-NP-162717, EL, http:// and pine beetle outbreaks are projected to increase [13, 14]. All of these factors make climate www.frqsc.gouv.qc.ca/), the Skoll Global Threats action in Canada both vital and difficult. Fund (JM, http://www.skollglobalthreats.org/), the Given the significant role fossil-fuel energy plays in the Canadian economy, climate action Energy Foundation (JM, http://www.ef.org/), and the will be difficult. Implementing a national climate policy would represent a large change in eco- Grantham Foundation for the Protection of the Environment (JM, http://www.granthamfoundation. nomic and energy policy for Canada. Consequently, Canada is in many ways a difficult case for org/). Additionally, funding for individual survey waves implementing ambitious carbon pricing. Given geographical variation in energy resources and was previously provided by the Ministère des electricity sources, policy costs and benefits will be unevenly spread across the country. Further, Relations internationales et de la francophonie (http:// as a highly decentralized federal system with regionally diverse political economies, one prov- www.mrif.gouv.qc.ca/en/), the Chaire d’études ince could threaten to block or weaken national reform efforts. politiques et économiques américaines (http://cerium. For these reasons, we should expect public support for climate policy to vary spatially. How- umontreal.ca/recherche/unites-de-recherche/chaire- detudes-politiques-et-economiques-americaines- ever, existing data on Canadian climate opinions have been restricted to the national and pro- cepea/), l’Institut de l’énergie Trottier (http://www. vincial levels, masking this consequential variation in public beliefs. This research article helps polymtl.ca/iet/en/), Sustainable Prosperity (http:// fill this gap by extending methods advanced by [15] in their analysis of local climate opinions www.sustainableprosperity.ca/), Canada 2020 (http:// in the United States. We use multi-level regression and post-stratification (MRP) to provide canada2020.ca/), and the Public Policy Forum (http:// the first detailed opinion map of climate and energy opinions in a non-US setting. In doing so, www.ppforum.ca/). The costs of publishing this article as an open-access publication were covered by the we examine how Canadian perceptions of climate change, as well as policy preferences for car- University of California Santa Barbara (UCSB) Open bon taxes and carbon cap and trade, are distributed across the country. Just as scientists have Access Fund (http://www.library.ucsb.edu/scholarly- developed disaggregated maps of climate impacts, we present geographically-resolved data on communication/ucsb-open-access-fund). Canadian climate beliefs to inform decision makers at the national, provincial and local levels. Competing Interests: The authors have declared At the national level, previous work has found that 81% of Canadians believe climate change that no competing interests exist. is happening but only 47% think climate change is caused mostly by human activities [16, 17]. Relative to the American public then, Canadians are significantly more likely to perceive solid evidence of a global warming trend, and this difference has remained stable over time. How- ever, in this article we find that such aggregate assessments mask important local variation within the Canadian federation. In Nova Scotia for example, we report that 87% say climate change is happening, whereas 66% report this belief in Saskatchewan; within federal electoral districts, percentages vary from 56% in the Souris–Moose Mountain district in Saskatchewan, to 91% in the district of Halifax, Nova Scotia. Further, we find broad support for climate policy action across Canada. Majorities of the public in every federal electoral district (riding) support an emissions trading scheme, reaching a high of 78% in the Quebec district of Laurier–Sainte Marie. However, support for carbon taxes is more geographically differentiated, ranging from a low of 35% in the Northern Alberta district of Fort-McMurray–Cold Lake to a high of 70% in the Montreal-area district of Outre- mont. While there is plurality support for carbon taxes in a majority of Canadian federal elec- toral districts, strong public support is concentrated in British Columbia and urban Canada. In an effort to support analysis of Canadian climate policy and Canadian climate risks, these new opinion data are made freely available to researchers and members of the public at http:// www.umontreal.ca/climat/. A mirror is available at http://environment.yale.edu/ycom/canada/ 2016/map/. Additional model results are also provided as supporting information in our S1 File. Methods Data Our new opinion models build
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