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ENG 018-2020, 2020 Freshet Update

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COUNCIL REPORT Executive Committee Report No. ENG 018-2020 Date: April 29, 2020 File No: 5225-04 To: Mayor and Council From: Stella Chiu, Senior Engineer, Drainage and Wastewater Subject: 2020 Freshet Update RECOMMENDATION THAT the report by the Senior Engineer, Drainage and Wastewater, regarding a 2020 Freshet Update, and PowerPoint Presentation, be received for information. REPORT CONCURRENCE General Manager City Manager The General Manager concurs with the The City Manager concurs with the recommendation of this report. recommendation of this report. SUMMARY OF THE ISSUE Freshet, which typically occurs in May to August, is an annual event caused by heavy rainfall or snowmelt in the mountains. The Matsqui Dyke and Vedder Dyke protect the City from the Fraser River; with the exception of Glen Valley, which is the only low lying area within the city that is not protected by a dyke. In 2007, both the Matsqui and Vedder Dykes were raised to meet the level of the 1894 Flood of Record (1:500 year event), although climate change and sea level rise was not a factor considered at that time. Staff review the information provided by the Provincial River Forecast Centre to ensure we continue to maintain our level of service, and provide appropriate response should an emergency situation arise. This report provides a summary of the information and next steps. BACKGROUND Freshet, which typically occurs in May to August, is an annual event caused by heavy rainfall or snowmelt in the mountains. It causes river levels to rise, and could increase risk of localized flooding to low lying areas not protected by a dyke. A significant portion of the city is protected by the three dykes, namely the Matsqui Dyke, Sumas Dyke and the Vedder Dyke. Specifically, the Matsqui Dyke and Vedder Dyke protect the city from the Fraser River; with the exception of Glen Valley, which is the only low lying area within the city that is not protected by a dyke. In 2007, both the Matsqui and Vedder Dykes were Report No. ENG 018-2020 Page 2 of 4 raised to meet the level of the 1894 Flood of Record (1:500 year event), although climate change and sea level rise was not a factor considered at that time. The Provincial River Forecast Centre analyses snow pack, assesses seasonal water supply and flood risk, and predicts flows in British Columbia’s rivers and streams. It produces a range of bulletins, maps and warnings to inform emergency managers and the public about current and upcoming streamflow conditions, including the monthly Snow Conditions and Water Supply Bulletin. Staff review the information provided by the Provincial River Forecast Centre to ensure we continue to maintain our level of service, and provide appropriate response should an emergency situation arise. DISCUSSION Typically, the following parameters measured from two hydrometric stations (owned by Water Survey Canada) are used for Fraser River freshet forecasting and monitoring: - Fraser River at Hope gauge (“Hope Gauge”) (08MF005) – Flow (m3/s) - Fraser River at Mission gauge (“Mission Gauge”) (08MH024) – Water Level (m) According to the April Snow Conditions and Water Supply Bulletin (Attachment A), snow pack in the overall Fraser River basin is approximately 116% of normal. The likely peak flow forecast for the Fraser River at Hope is 8,000 (1:2 year event) to 11,500 m3/s (1:10 to 15 year event), though higher flows are possible with extreme weather. Seasonal weather forecasts indicate an increased likelihood of warmer than normal April to June temperatures for western BC, and cooler than normal temperatures for eastern BC. Midrange forecasts over the next month are favoring cooler than normal to near normal temperatures. Longer range temperature forecasts shift towards a high likelihood of above normal temperatures through BC over the May to July period. Currently, the higher end of the provincial flow projection of 11,500 m3/s is comparable to the event experienced in 2012. In 2012, a peak flow of 11,700 m3/s was recorded at the Hope gauge, and a peak water level of 6.375m was recorded at Mission Gauge on June 23, 2012. This caused localized flooding on a small portion of the River Road in Glen Valley, as well as Glen Valley Regional Park during the 2012 freshet. In preparation of the 2020 freshet, staff have surveyed current erosion arcs and their extents. In addition, we are advising residents to avoid activities close to the dyke to prevent seepage/boils, such as: - the removal of trees or stumps; - deep cultivation of fields; and - digging holes with machines. Throughout the freshet season, staff will continue to monitor the situation, and follow inspection protocol for dykes, i.e. increase inspection frequency at 4m level measured at the Mission Gauge. In addition, any anomalies, such as trees toppling, erosion arcs, and seepage/boils, developed during this time that would increase risks to our dykes will be monitored. Report No. ENG 018-2020 Page 3 of 4 Staff are participating in the weekly Province’s freshet coordination call with Provincial Emergency Management BC (EMBC), and will review the next Provincial Snow Conditions and Water Supply Bulletin due to be released on May 8, 2020 and provide updates to Council. FINANCIAL PLAN IMPLICATION There is no impact to the financial plan at this time. Komal Basatia Acting GM, Finance and Corporate Services Signed 4/28/2020 2:25 PM IMPACTS ON COUNCIL POLICIES, STRATEGIC PLAN AND/OR COUNCIL DIRECTION The associated monitoring and inspection to prepare for the 2020 freshet season supports the four cornerstones of Council’s Strategic Plan by: Vibrant economy: provide early warning to reduce impacts of flooding to the low lying areas; Complete Community: upholding public safety by ensuring potentially critical conditions to the dykes are identified early on; Fiscal Discipline: understanding the risks of the season and reducing negative impacts to the City’s infrastructure; and Organizational Alignment: upholding public trust by providing a high quality of life for residents protected by the dykes. SUBSTANTIATION OF RECOMMENDATION Freshet, which typically occurs in May to August, is an annual event caused by heavy rainfall or snowmelt in the mountains. It causes river level to rise, and could increase risk of localized flooding to low lying areas not protected by a dyke. According to the April Snow Conditions and Water Supply Bulletin, snow pack in the overall Fraser River basin is approximately 116% of normal. The likely peak flow forecast for the Fraser River at Hope is 8,000 (1:2 year event) to 11,500 m3/s (1:10 to 15 year event), though higher flows are possible with extreme weather. Staff will continue to monitor the situation, and follow inspection protocol for dykes. In addition, any anomalies, such as trees toppling, erosion arcs, and seepage/boils, developed during this time that would increase risks to our dykes will be monitored. It is recommended that the report regarding 2020 Freshet Update, be received for information. Stella Chiu Senior Engineer, Drainage and Wastewater Signed 4/28/2020 11:39 AM Report No. ENG 018-2020 Page 4 of 4 Rob Isaac GM, Engineering & Regional Utiities Signed 4/29/2020 8:45 AM ATTACHMENTS: Snow Survey and Water Supply Bulletin - April 1, 2020 Snow Survey and Water Supply Bulletin – April 1st, 2020 Executive Summary Despite cooler than normal temperatures, dry weather contributed to modest snow pack accumulation over the month of March. Most regions experienced small changes in snow basin index values in April compared with last month. The provincial average of snow measurements is 112% of normal. Seasonal flood risk is elevated in many regions, including the Upper Fraser West, Upper Fraser East, North Thompson, South Thompson, West Kootenay, Boundary, Cariboo Mountains, Central Coast and Skagit. The snow basin index for the Fraser River is 116%, with high snow pack levels in its major tributaries. The likely peak flow forecast for the Fraser River at Hope this freshet is 8,000-11,500 m3/s, though higher flows are possible with extreme weather. Typically, the provincial snow pack reaches its maximum level in mid-April. Significant changes to the current snow pack are not expected. However, continued cool weather can lead to a delay in the snowmelt season and lead to increased seasonal flood risks. Snow pack is one element of seasonal flood risk in BC and alone does not predict whether flooding will occur. Spring weather is a critical factor determining the rate that snow melts, and extreme rainfall can also cause spring flooding. Spring freshet poses a seasonal risk across the BC Interior, irrespective of snow pack levels. Overview The April 1st snow survey is now complete. Data from 117 manual snow courses and 82 automated snow weather stations around the province (collected by the Ministry of Environment Snow Survey Program, BC Hydro and partners), and climate data from Environment and Climate Change Canada and the provincial Climate Related Monitoring Program have been used to form the basis of the following report1. There were additional challenges accessing manual snow courses this year due to the COVID-19 situation, and 28 (19%) scheduled snow courses were not sampled, primarily within the South Coast and Bridge region of the Middle Fraser. This reduces the accuracy of the snow basin indices for certain regions; however, this is not expected to materially affect overall results. Weather March weather was characterized by generally stable patterns, interspersed with weaker periods of instability. Temperatures were below normal across the province, with monthly temperature anomalies typically in the -1˚C to -3˚C range. 1. Every effort is made to ensure that data reported on these pages are accurate.
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