March 2014

Monthly Forecast

2 Status Update since our Overview February Forecast 3 Children and Armed Conflict Luxembourg will preside over the Security Coun- the Congo by Martin Kobler, the head of the 4 Afghanistan cil in March. UN Organization Stabilization Mission in the An open debate on children and armed con- DRC and Special Envoy to the Great Lakes 6 Syria flict is planned, to be chaired by Jean Asselborn, Region Mary Robinson; 8 South Sudan Minister of Foreign and European Affairs of Lux- • the UN Assistance Mission in Somalia, by its 10 Sudan and South embourg. Special Representative for Children head Nicholas Kay, and by the Special Repre- Sudan and Armed Conflict Leila Zerrougui, Executive sentative of the Chairperson of the AU Com- 11 Sudan (Darfur) Director of UNICEF Anthony Lake and Under- mission for Somalia, Mahamet Saleh Annadif; 12 Somalia Secretary-General for Peacekeeping Hervé Lad- • the situation in Liberia by Karin Landgren, 14 Central African sous are among expected briefers. A former Sierra Special Representative and head of the UN Republic Leone child soldier, Alhaji Babah Sawaneh, who Mission in Liberia and Ambassador Staffan spoke to the Council on 20 November 2001 when Tillander (Sweden), chair of the Liberia con- 16 Democratic Republic of the Congo he was 14, is also expected to address the Council. figuration of the PBC; Debates are expected on the situations in • the situation in South Sudan, by Ladsous and 17 Liberia Afghanistan, with a briefing by Ján Kubiš, the possibly also Executive Director of UN Wom- 18 Sierra Leone head of the UN Assistance Mission in Afghani- en Phumzile Mlambo-Ngcuka; 19 Libya stan and in Haiti, by Sandra Honoré, the head of • the UN Assistance Mission for Iraq by its head 21 Yemen the UN Stabilization Mission in Haiti. Nickolay Mladenov with Iraq/Kuwait missing Luxembourg is planning a wrap-up session persons and property issues being discussed in 22 Lebanon to be held at the end of the month in a private consultations; and 23 UNDOF (Golan Heights) meeting. • the Middle East peace process by Special 24 Iraq Briefings are expected on: Coordinator Robert Serry. 26 Iran • the work of the 1737 Iran Sanctions Com- Briefings in consultations are likely on: 27 DPRK mittee by its chair, Ambassador Gary Quinlan • Syria on the chemical weapons track by the (Australia); Special Coordinator of the OPCW-UN Joint 29 Haiti • the situation in Sierra Leone by the head of the Mission, Sigrid Kaag; on Geneva II peace talks 30 Peacebuilding UN Integrated Peacebuilding Office in Sier- by the UN-Arab League Joint Special Repre- 32 Notable Dates ra Leone Jens Anders Toyberg-Frandzen and sentative Lakhdar Brahimi; and on the imple- Ambassador Guillermo Rishchynski (Cana- mentation of resolution 2139 on humanitarian da), chair of the Sierra Leone configuration access by Amos; of the PBC; and • the AU/UN Hybrid Operation in Darfur by • post-conflict peacebuilding by Deputy Sec- Ladsous; retary-General Jan Eliasson and possibly the • Sudan/South Sudan issues by Special Envoy PBC chair, Ambassador Antonio de Aguiar Haile Menkerios; Patriota (Brazil) and the head of UNDP Hel- • the UN Interim Security Force for Abyei, by en Clark. Ladsous; Briefings, followed by consultations, are • the implementation of resolution 1701 on expected on: Lebanon, by Special Coordinator Derek 28 February 2014 This report is available online at • the UN Support Mission in Libya by its head Plumbly and Assistant Secretary-General for securitycouncilreport.org. Tarek Mitri and the work of the 1970 Libya Peacekeeping Edmond Mulet; For daily insights by SCR on evolving Sanctions Committee by its chair, Ambassador • the UN Disengagement Observer Force in the Security Council actions please subscribe to our “What’s In Blue” Eugène-Richard Gasana (Rwanda); Golan Heights by Mulet; series at whatsinblue.org or follow • the situation in the Central African Republic, • the work of the 751/1907 Somalia/Eritrea @SCRtweets on Twitter. by the Department of Policitcal Affairs and Sanctions Committee by its chair, Ambassa- OCHA head Amos; dor Oh Joon (Republic of Korea); and • the situation in the Democratic Republic of • Yemen, by Special Advisor Jamal Benomar.

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast March 2013 securitycouncilreport.org 1 Overview (con’t)

Formal sessions will be held to adopt reso- • UNAMA (Afghanistan); and An informal interactive dialogue regard- lutions renewing the mandate of: • MONUSCO (DRC). ing the AU Mission in Somalia and an Arria • the Panel of Experts assisting the 1718 A formal session will also be needed if the formula meeting with religious leaders from DPRK Sanctions Committee; Council decides to continue the partial lifting the CAR are also contemplated. • • UNSMIL (Libya); of the arms embargo on Somalia.

Status Update since our February Forecast

Mali and human rights law; enhancing compliance Representative for Foreign Affairs and Secu- From 31 January to 3 February, Council by non-state armed groups; ensuring humani- rity Policy, briefed the Council on the activi- members took part in a visiting mission to tarian access; and promoting accountability.) ties of the EU in maintenance of interna- Mali (Bamako and Mopti) led by Chad and The debate also provided an opportunity to tional peace and security. At the meeting, the France (S/2014/72). The mission was under- consider the Secretary-General’s most recent Council adopted the first-ever presidential taken to reiterate the Council’s urgent call for thematic report on the protection of civilians, statement on cooperation between the UN an inclusive and credible negotiation process issued on 22 November (S/2013/689). It fea- and the EU, highlighting the EU’s compre- open to all communities of the north, as well tured briefings by Under-Secretary-General hensive approach to maintenance of interna- as emphasising the Council’s full support of for Humanitarian Affairs Valerie Amos, Under- tional peace and security (S/PRST/2014/4). the good offices of the Special Representative Secretary-General for Peacekeeping Opera- for Mali. On 26 February, the Council was tions Hervé Ladsous, High Commissioner Counter-Terrorism briefed by the co-leads of the visiting mission for Human Rights Navi Pillay and the Direc- On 16 February, Council members released (S/PV.7120). tor General of the International Committee a press statement condemning the terrorist of the Red Cross, Yves Daccord. In addition attack targeting a bus with Korean tourists Kosovo to Council members, more than 45 member in the Sinai Peninsula (Egypt) killing at least On 10 February, the Council held its quar- states also spoke.The presidential statement four people and injuring dozens (SC/11284). terly debate on Kosovo (S/PV.7108) and was reiterated the Council’s commitment to the briefed by Farid Zarif, the Special Repre- protection of civilians and contained as an Rule of Law sentative and head of UNMIK on the latest annex an updated aide mémoire aimed at On 19 February, the Council held an open report of the Secretary-General (S/2014/68). facilitating the Council’s consideration of pro- debate on the “the promotion and strength- tection issues. (First endorsed by the Coun- ening of the rule of law in the maintenance UNOCA (Central Africa) cil in a presidential statement on 15 March of international peace and security”, chaired On 10 February, the Secretary-General 2002 [S/PRST/2002/6] the aide memoire has by the Foreign Minister of Lithuania, Lin- extended the mandate of UNOCA until 31 been updated several times, most recently in a as Linkevičius (S/PV.7113). The Secretary- August 2015 in an exchange of letters with 22 November 2010 presidential statement [S/ General briefed the Council and represen- the Council (S/2014/103 and S/2014/104). PRST/2010/25]). While the Council had in the tatives of 63 member states, the EU and past “adopted” the aide memoire, this time it Palestine participated. On 21 February, the Cyprus instead “recognize[d] the contribution of the Council adopted a presidential statement (S/ On 11 February, the Council issued a press updated aide memoire for the consideration of PRST/2014/5) underlining the importance of statement welcoming the joint communi- issues pertaining to the protection of civilians support to strengthening the rule of law insti- qué agreed between the Greek Cypriots and in armed conflict.” tutions of the host country by a number of Turkish Cypriots leaders (SC/11273). peacekeeping operations and special political Burundi missions within the scope of their mandates. Protection of Civilians On 13 February, the Council adopted resolu- On 12 February, the Council held its semi- tion 2137, extending the mandate of BNUB OSCE annual open debate on the protection of civil- until 31 December 2014 (S/PV.7110). The On 24 February the Council was briefed by ians in armed conflict (S/PV.7109) and adopt- Council also requested the Secretary-Gener- the Swiss Minister of Foreign Affairs Didier ed a presidential statement (S/PRST/2014/3). al to prepare BNUB’s transition and transfer Burkhalter, the Chairperson-in-Office of the The concept note for the debate proposed a of responsibilities to the UN country team Organisation for Security and Co-operation focus on effective implementation of protection by that date. in Europe (OSCE). Burkhalter presented of civilians mandates in UN peacekeeping mis- the main objectives of the OSCE in 2014 sions, which is one of the five core protection EU-UN Cooperation and addressed the recent crisis in Ukraine challenges identified by the Secretary-General On 14 February, the Council held a meeting (S/PV.7117). (S/2014/74). (The other four are enhancing focusing on its cooperation with the EU (S/ compliance with international humanitarian PV.7112). Catherine Ashton, the EU High

2 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast March 2013 Status Update since our Forecast (con’t)

Israel/Palestine achieve the two-state solution. had been successfully completed and the elec- On 25 February, Under-Secretary-General toral date had been postponed from 16 March for Political Affairs Jeffrey Feltman briefed Guinea-Bissau to 13 April primarily for technical reasons. The the Council (S/PV.7118), followed by con- José Ramos-Horta, the Special Representa- Council also heard from Ambassador Antonio sultations. He reported that US Secretary of tive for Guinea-Bissau briefed the Council on de Aguiar Patriota (Brazil) on his recent visit State John Kerry’s efforts to forge a frame- 26 February (S/PV.7121) on the Secretary- to Guinea-Bissau as chair of the PBC coun- work proposal as a basis for continued nego- General’s report on the restoration of consti- try configuration. The Council issued a press tiation is reaching a defining moment and tutional order in Guinea-Bissau (S/2014/105). statement urging Guinea-Bissau to hold elec- potentially will provide a credible horizon to Ramos-Horta reported that voter registration tions without further delays (SC/11299).

Children and Armed Conflict

Expected Council Action reiterated the Council’s concern over persis- months, with actual negotiation time being In March the Council will hold an open debate tent perpetrators and its commitment to deal an average of three months.) on children and armed conflict chaired by Jean with them effectively. It also highlighted the The Secretary-General’s first report on the Asselborn, Minister of Foreign and European importance of concrete, time-bound action situation of children and armed conflict in Affairs of Luxembourg. Special Representa- plans and the Council’s readiness to adopt Syria was published on 27 January and intro- tive of the Secretary-General for Children and targeted and graduated measures against per- duced to the Working Group on 14 February Armed Conflict Leila Zerrougui will brief the sistent perpetrators. In addition, it encour- by the Special Representative (S/2014/31). Council, as will the Executive Director of UNI- aged the exchange of information between The report covers the period from 1 March CEF, Anthony Lake; Hervé Ladsous from the the Special Representative and sanctions 2011 to 15 November 2013 and provides Department of Peacekeeping; and a former committees as well as their groups of experts. information on grave violations against chil- child soldier from Sierra Leone, Alhaji Babah At the debate the Special Representative dren committed by all parties to the conflict Sawaneh, who last spoke at the children and introduced the joint initiative “Children, Not in Syria. The Working Group will begin dis- armed conflict debate on 20 November 2001 Soldiers” by her office and UNICEF, aimed cussing this report after the open debate. when he was 14. A concept note has been cir- at ending and preventing recruitment and The Working Group visited Myanmar culated by Luxembourg the lead country on the use of children by government armed forc- from 30 November to 4 December 2013. issue. Among the areas that may be covered es in conflicts by 2016. The campaign will The delegation was led by Luxembourg and are national capacity building, the financing of be launched on 6 March. Eight situations included Australia, Azerbaijan, France, Gua- action plans, military use of schools and coop- are listed in the annexes of the Secretary- temala, Russia, the UK and the US. The eration with regional organisations. A resolution General’s last annual report for recruitment main aim of the visit was to review progress is the most likely outcome. and use of children by government forces. in implementing the 27 June 2012 action (For a more detailed analysis of the Coun- Afghanistan, Chad, the Democratic Repub- plan to prevent the recruitment of children cil’s recent work on protection of children, please lic of Congo, Myanmar, Somalia and South in the Myanmar Armed Forces and to assess refer to our 21 February Cross-Cutting Report on Sudan have signed action plans to end and the challenges and issues for monitoring and Children and Armed Conflict.) prevent the recruitment and use of children reporting as well as the reintegration of chil- by their security forces. Sudan is in active dren. While acknowledging that some prog- Key Recent Developments dialogue with the UN over an action plan, ress had been made, the Working Group del- The last children and armed conflict debate while Yemen has made a commitment to end egation stressed that further progress was was held on 17 June 2013. It was a public recruitment and use of children. needed for full compliance with the action debate, not an open one, with only Coun- Since the last debate, the Working Group plan and for increased access for monitoring cil members plus “specially affected” parties has adopted conclusions on the situation of and reporting and for proactive identification, speaking. Besides the Secretary-General’s children and armed conflict in Myanmar (S/ registration and discharge of children. annual report on children and armed con- AC.51/2013/2), Yemen (S/AC.51/2013/3) flict, the debate focused on persistent perpe- and the Philippines (S/AC.51/2014/1). Key Issues trators (i.e., parties that have been listed for (Conclusions on children and armed con- While the children and armed conflict agenda five years or more in the Secretary-General’s flict affected by the Lord’s Resistance Army has been successful in developing a coherent reports) and the need to hold them account- were adopted on 19 April 2013. Overall, the architecture with a reliable monitoring and able. A presidential statement was adopt- gap between reports published and conclu- reporting mechanism, an overarching issue ed during the debate (S/PRST/2013/8). It sions adopted in 2013 was an average of 6.3 for the Council is how to move to greater

UN DOCUMENTS ON CHILDREN AND ARMED CONFLICT Security Council Resolution S/RES/2068 (19 September 2012) expressed the Council’s commitment to deal with persistent perpetrators. Security Council Presidential Statement S/PRST/2013/8 (17June 2013) reiterated the Council’s commitment to effectively deal with persistent perpetrators, as well as its readiness to adopt targeted measures against them. Secretary-General’s Report S/2013/245 (15 May 2013) was the latest report on children and armed conflict.

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast March 2013 securitycouncilreport.org 3 Children and Armed Conflict (con’t) follow-up and accountability particularly in particular attention paid to the use of schools • discussing alternatives to conclusions as a relation to persistent perpetrators. for military purposes—as there have been no means of conveying the Working Group’s Another significant issue is how to ensure action plans on this violation. messages to the parties on the Secretary- that child protection concerns are given due Options that would allow the Council to General’s annexes; weight in UN peacekeeping and political be better informed on child protection issues • brainstorming new tools to put pressure missions. While country-specific decisions and could be incorporated into a resolution on the parties, particularly persistent in 2013 continued to include child protec- include: perpetrators; tion language, particularly when setting up • requesting the Secretary-General to • holding Arria formula meetings with rel- or renewing UN mission mandates, there are include a separate section on the imple- evant parties, including Child Protection still gaps in implementation. mentation of Working Group recommen- Advisors (CPAs) and NGOs involved in Also an issue is ensuring that the Council dations in his country-specific reports on child protection, in order to obtain current receives regular feedback on child protection children and armed conflict; information; and issues in country-specific situations. • requesting the Special Representative to • instituting more regular contact with Persistent perpetrators and how to put brief the Council on situations on the CPAs in UN missions for current situ- pressure on these groups continues to be agenda that have a children and armed ations being considered by the Working an issue. A related issue is how to make the conflict dimension; Group. best use of tools, such as existing sanctions • having the Working Group chair brief the committees. For example, an effort could Council when Working Group conclusions Council and Wider Dynamics be made to include attacks on schools and are adopted on a country-specific report Over the last two years, the composition of hospitals as designation criteria for the 1988 on children and armed conflict or follow- the Council has not been particularly condu- Afghanistan Sanctions Committee since the ing a field visit by the Working Group; cive to moving the children and armed con- Taliban have been listed in the Secretary- • having the Secretary-General, Special flict agenda forward. While several members General’s annexes for such attacks. Envoys, Special Representatives, the that had strong views on limiting the scope Continuing issues for the Working Group Department of Peacekeeping Opera- of this agenda are no longer on the Coun- include receiving relevant, current infor- tions and Department of Political Affairs cil, there are still some who are wary of any mation that can be used as the basis for its update the Security Council on issues rel- major changes at the thematic level. China conclusions, lengthy negotiations due to evant to children and armed conflict dur- and Russia continue to stress the importance lack of consensus and little response to its ing their regular briefings; and of national sovereignty and are reluctant to recommendations. • ensuring that commissions of inquiry consider stronger measures such as sanc- include a children and armed conflict tions, thus limiting the options for putting Options dimension. pressure on persistent perpetrators. However, The most likely option for the Council is Options for the Working Group include: together with France and the UK who have to adopt a resolution at the open debate in requesting feedback from parties on been supportive of the issue over the years, a which the Council might commit to focus- requests in conclusions in order to track the significant number of elected members this ing on practical measures that could improve impact of the tools being used (in this regard, year—in particular Argentina, Australia, Jor- the implementation of action plans, including inviting representatives from the states being dan, Lithuania and Luxembourg—have an capacity building at both the national and UN considered in a Secretary-General’s report active interest in this issue. With the current level. Another issue that could be given atten- on children and armed conflict to meet with mix in the Council there may be an opportu- tion is attacks on schools and hospitals—with the Working Group might be useful); nity for new momentum on this issue.

Afghanistan

Expected Council Action quarterly debate on the situation in Afghani- Key Recent Developments In March, the Council is scheduled to renew stan, during which Ján Kubiš, Special Repre- The deadliest attack against foreign civilians the mandate of the UN Assistance Mission sentative of the Secretary-General and head in Afghanistan since 2001 occurred on 17 in Afghanistan (UNAMA), which expires of UNAMA, will brief the Council. January when a Taliban suicide bomber and on 19 March. The Council will also hold its two gunmen attacked the Taverna du Liban,

UN DOCUMENTS ON AFGHANISTAN Security Council Resolutions S/RES/2120 (10 October 2013) extended ISAF’s authorisation until 31 December 2014. S/RES/2096 (19 March 2013) renewed UNAMA’s mandate until 19 March 2014. Security Council Press Statement SC/11251 (17 January 2014) condemned the attack that killed 21 people, including 13 foreigners, at a Kabul restaurant. Security Council Meeting Record S/PV.7085 (17 December 2013) was a Security Council debate on Afghanistan. Other Documents A/HRC/25/41 (10 January 2014) was the annual report of the UN High Commission for Human Rights on Afghanistan. UNAMA’s 2013 Annual Report on Protection of Civilians in Armed Conflict (February 2014) Other Relevant Facts UNAMA Size and Composition Strength as of 31 January 2014: 345 international civilian personnel (excluding military/police advisers), 1,170 local civilian staff and 71 UN volunteers based in Kabul headquarters, 13 regional offices, two liaison offices (Tehran and Islamabad) and one support office shared with UN Assistance Mission for Iraq in Kuwait. ISAF Size and Composition Strength as of 15 January 2014: 57,004 troops from 49 contributing countries (38,000 are US troops).

4 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast March 2013 Afghanistan (con’t)

a restaurant popular with foreigners in Kabul. US and Afghanistan, which NATO’s SOFA death penalty (A/HRC/26/4). Twenty-one people were killed, 13 foreign- would resemble, had yet to be reached. The During its 25th session in March, the HRC ers and eight Afghans. Among the victims agreements envision leaving approximately will consider a report from High Commissioner for Human Rights Navi Pillay on the situation in were four UN employees. The Taliban over- 10,000 international troops in Afghanistan Afghanistan (A/HRC/25/41). In her report, Pil- ran an Afghan army base in Kunar region on to train government forces and assist in lay indicates there was a 10 percent increase in 23 February killing 21 soldiers and leaving counter-terrorism. Apparently frustrated by civilian deaths and injuries in the first 11 months 6 missing, in what may have been the great- President Hamid Karzai’s unwillingness to of 2013 compared to the same period in 2012, est losses suffered by government forces in a sign the BSA, on 25 February, US President reversing the decline that was reported in 2012. The report also voices concern about the con- single attack since 2010. Barak Obama told Karzai that the US would tinued use of torture by Afghan forces involving Afghan civilian casualties, meanwhile, rose start planning a complete withdrawal of US conflict-related detainees in a number of deten- by 14 percent in 2013, a reversal from 2012’s forces by the end of the year while still try- tion facilities and denial of detainees’ access to decline. UNAMA’s annual report on protec- ing to reach an agreement with his successor legal counsel. tion of civilians, released in February, also after the elections. Additionally, Pillay referred to the most recent report on the implementation of the 2009 Law determined that anti-government forces were Further fuelling tensions between the US on the Elimination of Violence against Women responsible for 74 percent of civilian deaths and Afghanistan, on 13 February Afghanistan (EVAW) released in December: A Way to Go: An and injuries. Eight percent of casualties were released 65 prisoners who had been trans- Update on Implementation of the Law on EVAW attributed to Afghan security forces and three ferred to its custody by the US, indicating that in Afghanistan. The report finds that discrimina- percent to international forces. (The other 15 they had done so due to a lack of evidence. tion and harmful practices against women remain systemic and entrenched. It notes that while the percent were not attributed to a specific side.) The US maintained that there was strong authorities registered 28 percent more reports A new trend was the significant increase in evidence linking the prisoners to terror-relat- of violence against women under the EVAW law civilian casualties during ground engage- ed crimes, that the decision violated a 2012 over the past year, prosecutions and convictions ments. This reflected the assumption of secu- memorandum of understanding on prisoners, remain low, with most cases settled by mediation. rity responsibilities by the state from interna- and threatened international forces. tional forces and fighting the Taliban in more In other developments, a 30 January Key Issues conventional military operations, increasingly report by the US Special Inspector General The key issue for the Council will be renew- in civilian communities. for Afghanistan Reconstruction highlighted ing the mandate of UNAMA, which comes as The ICRC’s 11 February 2014 Opera- corruption and the difficulty of channelling most international forces will be withdrawn by tional Update highlighted that it had not aid money into developing state institutions, the end 2014. The UN has proposed renewing observed any security improvements in 2013 reporting that none of the 16 ministries could it around the mission’s four core areas: good and that it was operating in an “increasingly be trusted to keep funds from being stolen offices, coordinating international develop- insecure environment”. or wasted. ment assistance, human rights monitoring and Meanwhile Afghanistan moved closer to The World Bank reported a decline in advocacy and humanitarian assistance. Con- the date of its 5 April presidential and pro- Afghanistan’s economic growth from 14.4 nected to this is the security of UNAMA and vincial elections. The Ministry of Interior percent in 2012 to an estimated 3.1 per- what it can do in a volatile environment. recommended on 11 January closing 414 cent in 2013. It attributed the decline to the Ensuring that the upcoming elections are of the 6,845 polling centres due to security uncertainty about the political and security conducted fairly, in particular after the wide- concerns. On 1 February, two aides of presi- transition. spread fraud in the 2009 elections, and are dential candidate Abdullah Abdullah, includ- On 17 February, Karzai ordered that par- not marred by violence, is an immediate issue. ing the campaign manager, were killed out- liament revise a draft criminal code. The code Fostering public acceptance of the results, side the campaign office in Herat. The next would have effectively prohibited relatives of which will impact Afghanistan’s future ability day, electoral campaigning officially started defendants from testifying in domestic-abuse to achieve stability, is a closely related issue. with 11 presidential candidates and 2,563 cases. Civil society and foreign governments Opium production and drug trafficking, candidates for 34 provincial councils. Voter urged Karzai to oppose the law. undermining good governance and funding registration continued with over 3.5 million At the UN, the Fifth Committee approved the insurgency, is an ongoing issue. new voters registered since 26 May 2013. UNAMA’s 2014 budget of $191.3 million on Vigilance against a possible rollback in Approximately 35 percent are women. The 23 December 2013, a reduction of approxi- human rights gains made during the last 12 process will continue until two weeks before mately $4.9 million from its 2013 budget. years tied to the NATO drawdown, is an election day. emerging issue for the Council. As part of the drawdown of the Interna- Human Rights-Related Developments Ensuring that UNAMA has the resources tional Security Assistance Force (ISAF), on Following the 27 January review of Afghanistan, to carry out its work, despite pressure on the the Human Rights Council’s (HRC) working group 21 December 2013, NATO announced that UN to find budget savings, is an ongoing of the Universal Periodic Review adopted its negotiations had begun with Afghanistan report on 31 January. Of the 224 recommenda- concern. on a Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA). tions formulated during the interactive dialogue, Meanwhile, a final agreement on the Bilat- Afghanistan did not support 12, of which nine con- Underlying Problems eral Security Agreement (BSA) between the cerned the establishment of a moratorium on the The stalling of the BSA negotiations is

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast March 2013 securitycouncilreport.org 5 Afghanistan (con’t) creating difficulty for the international com- functions; or France recently increased its emphasis munity to plan beyond 2014. It is also con- • renew UNAMA’s mandate for a shorter on the issue of drugs, a concern often high- tributing to the lack of confidence in the period. lighted by Russia. They may seek additional country among Afghans about the security language that highlights the problem or pro- and political transitions. No agreement that Council Dynamics motes regional cooperation to deal with the would keep international troops beyond 2014 Council members are largely in agreement issue, preparing next year’s mandate discus- could require reassessing UNAMA’s mission. on renewing UNAMA’s mandate with its sion for a possible greater UNAMA role on Related to the NATO drawdown and BSA core functions. With the changes Afghani- narcotics. Other members are sceptical about is whether government forces will perform stan is experiencing during 2014—the elec- expanding UNAMA’s mandate in this regard. effectively to prevent a security vacuum or tion of a new president and the withdrawal of Some Council members believe that Taliban resurgence. international forces—it is considered impor- NATO’s drawdown should not have a sig- tant to provide continuity and predictability nificant impact on the mission, which has Options through UNAMA’s presence, without sig- long provided for its own security, while oth- The Council could: nificant changes in its role. Members also ers express concerns. Agreement is wide- • renew UNAMA for one year, keeping the widely agree that 2015 is when it will be more spread about the importance of the BSA. four core functions of its mandate; appropriate for intensive discussion about Russia frequently cites the potential negative • further streamline the mandate to pro- UNAMA’s mandate, since by then a new impact that ISAF’s withdrawal will have on duce a shorter, more concise resolution, government will have had time to identify its regional security. removing parts that divert from the core priorities for where the UN can best assist. Australia is the penholder on Afghanistan.

Syria

Expected Council Action lines, in besieged areas and across borders areas and a further 2.5 million in areas rarely In March, it is expected that Under-Secre- and expressing its intent to take further steps accessed by humanitarian workers. Recently, tary-General for Humanitarian Affairs Val- in case of non-compliance. The vote fol- OCHA estimated over 680,000 have been erie Amos will brief Council members on the lowed two weeks of intense negotiations that injured over the three years of the conflict. first monthly implementation report of reso- resulted in significant compromises on refer- Adding to the dire situation are alarming lution 2139 on humanitarian access. ences to Syria’s unwillingness to implement reports of intentional government policies There will also be a briefing in consul- the October 2013 presidential statement on of depopulating and razing residential areas, tations on the implementation of resolution humanitarian access, possible sanctions in starving areas under siege and deliberately 2118 regarding the destruction of Syria’s case of non-compliance, cross-border access attacking health infrastructure. The regime chemical weapons by Sigrid Kaag, Special and access to besieged areas, aerial bombard- has increased its use of incendiary weapons, Coordinator of the Organization for the Pro- ment, accountability and counter-terrorism. cluster bombs and barrel bombs and the pro- hibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW)-UN The situation in Syria is devastating and liferation of extremist armed groups has con- Joint Mission. the level of violence has only escalated since tributed to the escalating violence. Council members will also be closely the adoption of resolution 2118 on 27 Sep- Amos last briefed Council members on 13 watching whether a third round of Geneva tember 2013. The death toll has increased by February, reporting that since the adoption II peace talks will be convened in the near 36 percent (from 100,000 to a conservative of the October 2013 presidential statement future. At press time, it was expected that estimate by monitoring groups of 136,000). the conflict had intensified with the contin- UN-Arab League Joint Special Representa- According to UN sources, refugee numbers ued use of siege as a weapon of war, denial of tive Lakhdar Brahimi would brief Council have also risen in the same time period by humanitarian assistance and aerial bombard- members in March. almost 14 percent (from 2.2 million to nearly ment. Amos cited the Homs evacuation as an 2.5 million), while the number of internally example of what can be achieved if parties act Key Recent Developments displaced persons has dramatically increased in support of humanitarian action. However, On 22 February, the Council unanimously by almost 55 percent (from 4.2 million to she said Homs could not be seen as progress. adopted resolution 2139, demanding that all 6.5 million). Inside Syria, there are almost It had taken 14 months to reach agreement to parties, in particular the Syrian authorities, 9.3 million in need of humanitarian assis- evacuate 1,400 people, and she said the inter- allow humanitarian access across conflict tance, with almost 250,000 living in besieged national community could not wait another

UN DOCUMENTS ON SYRIA Security Council Resolutions S/RES/2139 (22 February 2014) demanded that all parties, in particular the Syrian authorities, allow humanitarian access in Syria across conflict lines, in besieged areas and across borders and expressed the intent to take further steps in the case of non-compliance. S/RES/2118 (27 September 2013) required the destruction of Syria’s chemical weapons stockpiles. Security Council Presidential Statement S/PRST/2013/15 (2 October 2013) called for humanitarian access in Syria. Security Council Meeting Record S/PV.7116 (22 February 2014) was the unanimous adoption of resolution 2139 on humanitarian access, co-sponsored by Australia, France, Jordan, Korea, Lithuania, Luxembourg, the UK and the US. Secretary-General’s Reports S/2014/133 (26 February 2014) was the fifth OPCW-UN Joint Mission monthly progress report. S/2014/31 (27 January 2014) was on children and armed conflict in the Syrian Arab Republic.

6 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast March 2013 Syria (con’t)

14 months for 1,400 more with 250,000 still which requires consensus, was not issued. talks to achieve “regime change”, while Ker- under siege. Nor, she added, could Homs be Instead, agreed “elements to the press” were ry said agreement on a transitional govern- seen as a model when humanitarian workers read out, in which Council members not- ment was the primary goal of the June 2012 had come under deliberate fire and men and ed growing concern about the slow pace of Geneva communiqué and accused Russia of boys were separated from their families and removal and called upon Syria to expedite backtracking on previous commitments. The detained by the government during the evac- the process. Council members underlined status of a third round of talks was unknown uation. (While Amos did not attribute blame Syria’s responsibility in this regard and said at press time. for the attack on aid workers, the US said they remained committed to the 30 June On 26 February, the US said the Assad the regime broke the humanitarian pause deadline and would closely monitor compli- regime had arrested relatives of some oppo- with shelling.) Amos said even achieving lim- ance with resolution 2118. sition delegates. Syria also designated some ited progress was uneven and painstakingly The day before the missed deadline, Rus- delegates as terrorists and seized their assets. slow and that one-off aid deliveries were not sia announced that Syria would complete enough. She said the Security Council had a its shipments by 1 March. However, on 21 Human Rights-Related Developments responsibility to act. February, the UN said Syria had provided On 6 February, a group of UN independent experts and special rapporteurs urged all parties Separately, the General Assembly held a revised timeline that requested a mid-May to ensure immediate humanitarian relief to those a meeting on the humanitarian situation in target for removal despite the OPCW assess- experiencing extreme deprivation. The experts Syria on 25 February. The Secretary-General, ment that Syria had adequate means to act warned that the withholding basic necessities and the High Commissioner for Human Rights, immediately. The OPCW reported a third the denial of humanitarian relief used as a meth- the High Commissioner for Refugees, the transfer on 10 February. According to media od of war amounted to war crimes and crimes against humanity. WHO Director-General and the Deputy reports, the three batches represent 11 per- On 19 February, the Office of the High Com- Emergency Relief Coordinator briefed. Pil- cent of the total arsenal, but only 5 percent missioner for Human Rights released a study, lay reiterated her call for the Security Council of the most toxic, priority-one chemicals have “Living under Siege”, and reiterated its calls for to refer the Syrian crisis to the ICC. Saudi been removed. At press time, the OPCW humanitarian access to all besieged areas. High Arabia requested this meeting on 7 February announced a fourth transfer on 26 February, Commissioner Navi Pillay said, “The Security Council is continuing to fail Syrians by not even on behalf of Australia, Cyprus, Egypt, France, reportedly of mustard gas. managing to agree on measures to ensure the Germany, Italy, Japan, Jordan, Kuwait, Lux- The first round of Geneva II UN-medi- provision of basic necessities to people”. embourg, Qatar, Turkey, United Arab Emir- ated peace talks between government and In March, the Human Rights Council will con- ates, the UK and the US. These member opposition delegations was held 22-31 Janu- sider the updated report on the work of the Com- states cited increasing frustration at the lack ary with no progress in agreeing to confi- mission of Inquiry on Syria. of progress in addressing the humanitarian dence-building measures, such as humani- situation as well as concern over a growing tarian access, local ceasefires and prisoner Key Issues body of evidence pointing to war crimes and releases. (The situation in Homs was dis- Three years into the conflict, the key issue crimes against humanity. cussed in Geneva without reaching agree- is whether and when the parties to the con- Regarding chemical weapons, Kaag last ment. The actual evacuation was agreed by flict, in particular the Syrian authorities, will briefed Council members on 6 February, parties on the ground.) meaningfully implement resolutions 2118 reporting that the 5 February deadline for Talks resumed from 10-13 February, and 2139, on chemical weapons and humani- the removal of the entire chemical weapons focusing on forming a transitional govern- tarian access respectively. Both resolutions stockpile was missed, though Syria did trans- ing body, ending violence and fighting ter- expressed the intent to take further steps in fer cargoes on 7 and 27 January. She told rorism. Brahimi insisted both parties declare the case of non-compliance. In this regard, a Council members that the final deadline of their political will to deal with these issues in related issue for the Council is what further 30 June was achievable and that Syria had response to the impasse that emerged in the steps it might take if there is not timely and sufficient material and equipment to proceed first round of talks over President Bashar al- substantive implementation. without delay. Kaag reported that Syria was Assad’s future role. The government refused at a critical juncture and that to meet the to discuss any political transition until there Options mid-year deadline it would be imperative for is a halt to terrorism. The opposition present- Following the adoption of resolution 2139 on Syria to move sufficient volumes in a con- ed its roadmap for a political solution, but the humanitarian access, the Council is unlikely sistent and predictable manner. Finally, in government did not respond. to press for any public outcome. However, remarks to the media, Kaag said it was Syria’s On 14 February, Brahimi convened a Council members have the option to request responsibility to meet its obligations under trilateral meeting with Russia and the US the Secretary-General to provide bench- resolution 2118 and as a party to the chemi- to bring fresh momentum into the process. marks for measurable progress on the specific cal weapons convention. However, the meeting was acrimonious and demands it made in resolution 2139. The US drafted a press statement call- likely mirrored media remarks made the An option for the Council on the politi- ing on Syria to immediately comply with its same day by Russian Foreign Minister Ser- cal track is issuing a statement encouraging obligations under resolution 2118. Howev- gey Lavrov and US Secretary of State John meaningful engagement by both delegations er, Russia had objections and the statement, Kerry. Lavrov criticised the US for using the at the peace talks, stressing its endorsement

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast March 2013 securitycouncilreport.org 7 Syria (con’t) in resolutions 2118 and 2139 of the June the importance Russia and the US placed On the chemical weapons track, many 2012 Geneva communiqué that called for on avoiding contentious negotiations in the Council members are concerned by the the establishment of a transitional governing lead-up to Geneva II. However, with no polit- slow pace of removal and few are confident body exercising full executive powers. How- ical solution in sight following the January that the 30 June deadline will be met. These ever, any action on this track will be informed and February rounds of peace talks and with members are coming to the conclusion that by what Brahimi has to say when he briefs no clear indication if they will resume, Aus- Syria’s delayed implementation is a tactic to the Council. tralia, Jordan and Luxembourg, along with buy time. At this juncture, Council members Regarding chemical weapons, Kaag’s the P3, decided to table the draft resolution have not actively discussed taking any con- last two briefings indicated significant con- on humanitarian access for a vote after two crete action for non-compliance. cerns regarding Syria’s cooperation. If such weeks of intense negotiations. France is the penholder on Syria but most concerns are again amplified in March, the Russia warned that the initiative would texts are thoroughly, if not exclusively, nego- Council could issue a statement reminding jeopardise the political, humanitarian and tiated between Russia and the US prior to Syria that resolution 2118 decided to impose chemical weapons tracks. However, the agreement by the broader Council. However, measures under Chapter VII in the event of broader Council membership was not swayed the negotiation of resolution 2139 provides non-compliance. by the argument, given their increasing frus- an interesting counter to Russia-US predom- tration at the overwhelming lack of coopera- inance on the Syria file in the Council. Aus- Council Dynamics tion Syria had exhibited on all three tracks. tralia and Luxembourg are the penholders on Despite continuously worsening conditions When the draft resolution was put in blue, the humanitarian track and, along with Jor- following the adoption of the October 2013 it was unclear whether sufficient compromis- dan, led these negotiations. It is an example presidential statement, there was a great es had been made to avoid a veto by Moscow of elected members’ ability to take the lead deal of reluctance to move forward on the and Beijing. Resolution 2139 on humanitar- and actively participate in P5 negotiations, humanitarian track in the Council due to ian access was adopted unanimously. refusing to be excluded.

South Sudan

Expected Council Action 2013 through 31 January 2014. The report detention in South Sudan facing treason charg- In March, the Council is scheduled to be briefed summarises human rights violations in the es and seven were released into the custody of on the report of the Secretary-General on the Central Equatoria, Jonglei, Unity and Upper Kenya on 29 January). After the rebels were UN Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS) by Nile states, including the deliberate target- assured their concerns would be addressed, an the Under-Secretary-General for Peacekeeping ing of civilians in extrajudicial killings and opening ceremony was held on 11 February, and Operations Hervé Ladsous. Executive Director mass killings, enforced disappearances, gen- the seven former political detainees arrived in of UN Women Phumzile Mlambo-Ngcuka may der-based violence and torture committed by Addis Ababa from Nairobi the following day. also brief on her 18-19 February trip to South forces from both sides of the conflict. The Potentially complicating the mediation process, Sudan. Council members are likely to hold con- report also notes that many civilians were the group of seven has since asked to participate sultations following the briefing. deliberately targeted and killed along ethnic independently rather than joining the rebel del- At press time, an outcome was not antici- lines, while many more civilians have been egation. IGAD chief negotiator Seyoum Mesfin pated. However, after considering the findings forcibly displaced. said, “They rather would like us to prepare a of the upcoming Secretary-General’s report, the A second round of talks mediated by the sort of a triangular table for their negotiations.” Council could choose to modify the mandate of Intergovernmental Authority on Development Despite the holding of an opening ceremony, as UNMISS well ahead of its 15 July expiration. (IGAD) between the government of South of press time the second round of talks had failed Sudan and the opposition was due to start on 10 to progress. This may be largely due to rebel Key Recent Developments February. The rebel delegation then made two objections regarding the continued detention of On 21 February, Council members received demands as a pre-requisite: the withdrawal of four opposition figures and the ongoing deploy- an interim report on the human rights situ- Ugandan military forces deployed in support ment of Ugandan forces in South Sudan. ation in South Sudan issued by the Human of the government and the participation in the Meanwhile, although the parties had signed Rights Division of UNMISS. The report cov- talks of the 11 Sudan People’s Liberation Move- the IGAD-mediated 23 January cessation of ers events during the first six weeks since the ment (SPLM) members initially detained by the hostilities agreement and IGAD had deployed outbreak of hostilities, from 15 December government in mid-December (four remain in an advance team of ceasefire monitors from 2-7

UN DOCUMENTS ON SOUTH SUDAN Security Council Resolution S/RES/2132 (24 December 2013) increased the troop and police ceiling of UNMISS through inter-mission coopera- tion. Security Council Press Statement SC/11278 (13 February 2014) expressed strong support for IGAD mediation. Security Council Letter S/2014/46 (23 January 2014) was from South Sudan expressing its willingness to work closely with the leadership of UNMISS. Secretary-General’s Report S/2013/651 (8 November 2013) was a quarterly report on UNMISS. Other Interim Report on Human Rights: Crisis in South Sudan, Human Rights Division, UNMISS, 21 February 2014. ADDITIONAL USEFUL RESOURCES Communiqué of the 24th Extra- Ordinary Session of the IGAD Assembly of the Heads of State and Government on the Situation in South Sudan, IGAD, 31 January 2014. PSC/AHG/COMM/1.(CDXVI), Communiqué, AU Peace and Security Council, 29 January 2014.

8 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast March 2013 South Sudan (con’t)

February, armed conflict has reignited in South urgent appeal on 4 February for $1.27 billion in Addis Ababa and the Council’s possible Sudan. According to a rebel spokesperson, to fund aid through June. As of 24 February, role in facilitation of a successful outcome. Sudan People’s Liberation Army (SPLA) forces donors had contributed $260 million. and Justice and Equality Movement rebels were The Council last discussed South Sudan Options responsible for an attack on former Vice Presi- on 11 February, when members were briefed One option would be to modify the mandate dent Riek Machar’s hometown, Leer, in Unity in consultations by Ladsous, Under-Secre- of UNMISS well ahead of its expiration on state on 1 February. Analysis of imagery by the tary-General for Humanitarian Affairs and 15 July. Particular aspects that the Council US-based NGO Satellite Sentinel Project indi- Emergency Relief Coordinator Valerie Amos may wish to consider include: cates more than 1,000 huts were burned down and Special Representative of the Secre- • how the mandate could be modified to in the attack. More recently, as of 18 February, a tary-General and head of UNMISS Hilde reflect a de facto shift away from state major battle has erupted for control of Malakal, Johnson (via videoconference from Juba). capacity building and toward other pri- the capital of Upper Nile state, which has strate- Among other subjects, Amos and Ladsous orities, including protection of civilians; gic significance as the sole remaining source of also shared insights from their recent trips • to what extent peacekeepers will be able oil production; earlier combat damaged the oil to South Sudan, on 27-29 January and 2-3 to extend operations beyond bases, con- fields in Unity state. Both sides have traded accu- February respectively. duct patrols and assist IGAD ceasefire sations regarding responsibility for widespread Two days after the briefing in consulta- monitors; human rights violations in Malakal. There have tions, a press statement on the situation in • what level of capacity in terms of troop also been reports of fighting in Jonglei and Lakes South Sudan was issued on 13 February numbers, hardware and financing would states, with the SPLA being reinforced by Ugan- (SC/11278), in which the Council: likely be required; dan air and ground forces. • expressed support for mediation by • how UNMISS can be equipped and The outbreak of armed conflict in South IGAD; staffed adequately—considering UN bud- Sudan on 15 December has presented • welcomed the release of seven detained get and personnel constraints—to prevent numerous difficult challenges for UNMISS, political leaders and called for the release further conflict; particularly with regard to protecting of the remaining four detainees; • how to manage deteriorating relations civilians and managing contentious rela- • condemned violations of the 23 January with the government characterised by tions with the government. Approximately ceasefire agreement and called for the pro- numerous SOFA violations; and 75,000 civilians have sought refuge inside gressive withdrawal of foreign forces from • how best to facilitate and conduct UN 10 UNMISS bases throughout the country. South Sudan; human rights investigations, assist the AU Maintaining security—both internal and • condemned widespread violations of commission of inquiry and contribute to external—has been an operational priority human rights and humanitarian law and national reconciliation. for UNMISS. Nonetheless, inter-communal noted with concern the deteriorating Another option, although it is perhaps clashes erupted on 18 February inside the humanitarian situation; unlikely under the current circumstances fac- UNMISS base near Malakal, with at least • condemned interference with humani- ing South Sudan, would be to take no action 10 civilian deaths reported due to injuries tarian activities, including the looting of in the near term regarding modification of sustained both inside and outside the com- humanitarian property and supplies; UNMISS’s mandate. pound. SPLA violations of the UNMISS • condemned violations of the SOFA, Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA) have demanded cooperation with UNMISS Council Dynamics also become increasingly common, including and called on the government to accept Council members are united in their concern attempts to force entry into UNMISS bas- new troop contributions to UNMISS regarding the magnitude of conflict in South es. Other SOFA violations include: restric- regardless of country of origin; and Sudan, particularly reports of the deliberate tions on the freedom of movement; arbitrary • welcomed the next steps toward the for- targeting of civilian populations. There also arrests and detention; and screening of UN mation of the AU commission of inquiry seems to be an increasing recognition among flights and other forms of transport. into human rights violations and the antic- Council members of the need to adjust the Armed conflict in South Sudan has had ipated receipt of an UNMISS report on approach of UNMISS, with greater empha- a high humanitarian cost. According to the human rights. sis placed on protection of civilians, main- Office for the Coordination of Humanitar- taining humanitarian access and enabling ian Affairs, more than 710,600 people are Key Issues human rights reporting. Although Coun- displaced within the country, more than How to improve the effectiveness of UNMISS, cil members appear to be receptive toward 171,000 people have fled to neighbouring potentially including through modification of modification of UMISS’s mandate, the spe- countries, and aid agencies have reached its mandate in the near term, is currently per- cific measures and exact timeframe remain more than 300,000 people thus far with assis- haps the central issue. unclear at this juncture. tance. In order to assist the 3.2 million most Another critically important issue con- The US is the penholder on South Sudan. affected by the conflict, the UN launched an cerns the IGAD-mediated peace negotiations

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast March 2013 securitycouncilreport.org 9 Sudan and South Sudan

Expected Council Action transformation. Ghandour emphasised that inaccessible to humanitarian actors due to In March, Council members are scheduled to negotiations would be confined to the three worsening insecurity in South Sudan. be briefed in consultations on Sudan-South issues (i.e., security, political and humanitar- Council members were last briefed on Sudan issues and the quarterly report of the ian) of South Kordofan and Blue Nile and Sudan-South Sudan issues in consultations Secretary-General on the UN Interim Secu- that these talks should be held “concurrently on 11 February, by Under-Secretary-General rity Force for Abyei (UNISFA), released 25 and as one package”. Following several days for Peacekeeping Operations Hervé Ladsous. February (S/2014/126). As of press time, an of negotiations, Mbeki announced on 18 Among other issues, Ladsous discussed the outcome was not anticipated. February that there would be a 10-day break lack of recent progress implementing the 27 in the talks so the parties could consult with September 2012 agreements between Sudan Key Recent Developments their “principals” and further evaluate pro- and South Sudan. Tensions have eased recently between posals offered by the AUHIP team. On 14 February, the Council issued a Sudan and South Sudan, starting with the Meanwhile, conflict has continued in the press statement on Sudan and South Sudan meeting in Juba between Presidents Omar border states of both countries, particularly (SC/11282). Addressing a number of signifi- al-Bashir of Sudan and Salva Kiir of South South Kordofan and Blue Nile in Sudan and cant points, the statement: Sudan on 6 January. Sudan has participat- Unity and Upper Nile in South Sudan. On • welcomed the resumption of negotiations ed in the Intergovernmental Authority on 18 February, the defence minister of Sudan, between the SPLM-N and the govern- Development (IGAD) efforts to resolve the Abdel-Rahim Mohamed Hussein, said: “We ment of Sudan on 13 February; conflict in South Sudan, including making are keenest to resolve issues through dialogue • welcomed improved relations between a commitment to support the cessation of and only dialogue, but if war is imposed upon Sudan and South Sudan, including with- hostilities agreement signed by the warring us we would fight. We are ready to finish the in the context of participation within the parties on 23 January and offering to par- summer campaign to end the rebellion.” IGAD; ticipate in the monitoring and verification Media reports also suggest that Sudanese • reiterated concern regarding the humani- team to be deployed by IGAD in South Armed Forces have increased the intensity tarian situation in South Kordofan and Sudan. One issue that could complicate of aerial bombardment in South Kordofan Blue Nile states and called on all parties the improving relations between Sudan and and Blue Nile states in recent months. Across to refrain from attacks on civilians and South Sudan is the deployment of Ugan- the border in South Sudan, despite the 23 to expedite the delivery of humanitarian dan troops in support of the Sudan People’s January ceasefire agreement, SPLA forces on assistance; Liberation Army (SPLA). Sudan, which is 2 February reportedly attacked the home- • demanded the withdrawal from Abyei of a member of the IGAD mediation team town of former Vice President Riek Machar forces of the SPLA and personnel of the along with Ethiopia and Kenya, has stated in Unity state. According to analysis of imag- South Sudan National Police Service and its opposition to any foreign military inter- ery by the US-based NGO Satellite Sentinel reiterated a demand for the withdrawal of vention, while South Sudan has maintained Project, more than 1,000 huts were burned Sudan’s oil police; and its right as a sovereign state to accept mili- down. More recently, there have been numer- • urged resumption of the work of the Abyei tary assistance from Uganda. ous clashes in Upper Nile state, including a Joint Oversight Committee, establish- In their first talks since April 2013, the major rebel offensive launched on the state ment of the Safe Demilitarized Border government of Sudan and the Sudan Peo- capital, Malakal, on 18 February. Zone (SDBZ) and implementation of the ple’s Liberation Movement-North (SPLM- Continued fighting in Sudan and South Joint Border Verification and Monitoring N) held negotiations mediated by the AU Sudan has had a substantial adverse impact Mechanism (JBVMM). High-level Implementation Panel (AUHIP), on the cross-border humanitarian situation. led by former South African President Thabo According to the Office for the Coordination Key Issues Mbeki, from 13-18 February in Addis Aba- of Humanitarian Affairs, as of 10 February The outcome of the AUHIP-mediated talks ba, Ethiopia. The opening statements by Yasir there were nearly 25,000 refugees from South between Sudan and the SPLM-N is perhaps Arman, head of the SPLM-N delegation, and Sudan in Sudan, with the majority in White the most urgent Sudan-South Sudan issue. Ibrahim Ahmed Ghandour, head of the gov- Nile state. Further complicating a complex There are also a number of other longer ernment of Sudan delegation, indicated sig- demographic situation within the contested term and unresolved issues that require the nificant divergence between the two parties. territory, another 2,500 to 3,000 refugees sustained focus of the Council, such as cre- Arman called for a single forum for negotia- have arrived in Abyei from South Sudan. ation of the SDBZ, implementation of the tions with the Sudan Revolutionary Front, a According to the Office of the UN High JBVMM, border demarcation and determin- cease-fire including not only South Kordo- Commissioner for Refugees, there are also ing the status of Abyei. fan and Blue Nile states but also Darfur and more than 210,000 refugees from Sudan in a national constitutional process enabling a South Sudan. Many of these refugees reside Options transitional government and a democratic in camps that are becoming increasingly One option would be for the Council to issue

UN DOCUMENTS ON SUDAN AND SOUTH SUDAN Security Council Resolution S/RES/2046 (2 May 2012) provided a roadmap for Sudan, South Sudan and the SPLM-N to resolve outstanding issues and threatened Article 41 measures. Security Council Press Statement SC/11282 (14 February 2014) welcomed the resumption of negotiations between Sudan and the SPLM-N. Secretary-General’s Report S/2014/126 (25 February 2014) was the most recent quarterly report on UNISFA. Security Council Letter S/2013/657 (11 November 2013) changed the frequency of meetings on the implementation of resolution 2046 from semi-monthly to monthly. USEFUL ADDITIONAL RESOURCE Forgotten Wars: Sudan’s Periphery Smolders with Focus on South Sudan, Enough Project, 30 January 2014.

10 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast March 2013 Sudan and South Sudan (con’t) a presidential statement in support of the subregional organisations. agreed upon after a two-day delay—at which ongoing negotiations in Addis Ababa medi- point the AUHIP-mediated talks had already ated by AUHIP (Sudan) and IGAD (South Council Dynamics started—there also seems to be a limit to the Sudan). Certain Council members with On the one hand, as press statements require extent to which Council members may be political and economic leverage may also consensus, the issuance of the 14 February able to effectively work toward assisting the wish to consider intensifying their bi-lateral statement would seem to indicate a certain resolution of Sudan-South Sudan issues. diplomatic engagement. degree of unity among Council members The US is the penholder on Sudan-South An alternative option would be to take a on Sudan-South Sudan issues. On the other Sudan issues. more cautious approach in deference to the hand, as the press statement was first put lead mediation roles assumed by regional and under silence on 12 February and then only

Sudan (Darfur)

Expected Council Action ethnic groups in Darfur and the lack of progress This is closely interrelated with a conspic- In March, Council members are scheduled in implementing the Doha Document for Peace uous lack of progress in implementing the to be briefed in consultations on the report in Darfur (DDPD). DDPD and a significantly worsening human- of the Secretary-General offering recom- On 29 January, Sudan informed the itarian crisis throughout Darfur. mendations on improving the effectiveness ICRC that its work in the country would be As outlined by Under-Secretary-General of the AU/UN Hybrid Operation in Darfur suspended as of 1 February. The ICRC had for Peacekeeping Operations Hervé Ladsous (UNAMID), which is due by 28 February. more than 700 staff working in Sudan, pro- in his briefing to the Council on 23 January It is unclear if the Council will take action in viding assistance to more than one million (S/PV.7100), there are several challenges fac- response to the report. people, including medical supplies and food ing UNAMID, which have been identified by assistance in Darfur. On 3 February, the Per- the joint strategic review: Key Recent Developments manent Mission of Sudan addressed a letter • cooperation by the government of Sudan; The Council last addressed Darfur on 13 Febru- to the Council, stating that the ICRC had not • internal management practices; ary with the adoption of resolution 2138, which complied with “humanitarian principles and • coordination with the UN country team; extended for 13 months the mandate of the Panel guidelines that govern the relations with the and of Experts (PoE) assisting the 1591 Sudan Sanc- host country” (S/2014/81). • the operational capacity of troop and tions Committee (S/PV.7111). Resolution 2138 On 12 February, the AU-UN Joint Spe- police contingents. reduced the reporting requirements of the PoE cial Representative/Joint Chief Mediator, Another issue Ladsous mentioned is from three to two reports annually: a midterm Mohamed Ibn Chambas, met with three non- recurring threats to the safety of UN staff briefing due by 31 July and a final report due by signatory rebel groups (i.e., groups outside as 16 UNAMID peacekeepers were killed by 17 January 2015. Resolution 2138 also included the DDPD process) in Kampala, Uganda: hostile acts in 2013. new language on the need for Sudan to address the Sudan Liberation Army-Abdul Wahid, the illicit transfer, accumulation and misuse of Sudan Liberation Army-Minni Minawi and Options small arms and light weapons in Darfur. During the Justice and Equality Movement-Jibril In response to the forthcoming joint strate- consultations on 11 February, Ambassador María Ibrahim. Chambas stated he was encouraged gic review on improving UNAMID’s effec- Cristina Perceval (Argentina), chair of the 1591 regarding their “positive but cautious con- tiveness called for in resolution 2113, one Sudan Sanctions Committee, briefly discussed sideration” of the government’s recent call option would be for the Council to adopt her trip to Sudan from 20-23 January. for reconciliation and national dialogue. At a a resolution modifying UNAMID’s man- The final report of the PoE was transmitted conference on 17 February organised by the date significantly well ahead of its expiration to the Council on 7 February (S/2014/87). It Darfur Regional Authority, Chambas reiter- date of 31 August 2014. Such a resolution highlights violations of the arms embargo and ated the need for further dialogue to accom- might potentially include measures intend- international humanitarian law, including the modate the concerns of the people of Darfur. ed to compel greater cooperation by Sudan, presence of recently manufactured ammunition improve management and coordination and in Darfur, aerial attacks on civilian populations Key Issues increase the safety and impact of peacekeep- and attacks on UNAMID peacekeepers. The The principal issue facing the Council is the ers at ground level. report also discusses increasing conflict among deteriorating security situation in Darfur. In recognition of the complex linkages

UN DOCUMENTS ON SUDAN (DARFUR) Security Council Resolutions S/RES/2138 (13 February 2014) renewed the mandate of the Panel of Experts for 13 months. S/RES/2113 (30 July 2013) extended UNAMID’s mandate until 31 August 2014 and called for a review of UNAMID by 28 February 2014. Secretary-General’s Report S/2014/26 (15 January 2014) was the most recent quarterly report on UNAMID. Security Council Letters S/2014/87 (7 February 2014) transmitted the final report of the Panel of Experts. S/2014/81 (3 February 2014) transmitted a letter from Sudan regarding the ICRC. Security Council Meeting Records S/PV.7111 (13 February 2014) concerned the adoption of resolution 2138. S/PV.7100 (23 January 2014) was the most recent UNAMID briefing.USEFUL ADDITIONAL RESOURCE Sudan’s Spreading Conflict (III): The Limits of Darfur’s Peace Process, International Crisis Group, Africa Report No. 211, 27 January 2014.

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast March 2013 securitycouncilreport.org 11 Sudan (Darfur) (con’t) between the conflicts in Darfur and in South- Council Dynamics China and Russia apparently objected to lan- ern Kordofan and Blue Nile states, anoth- Most Council members are concerned about guage regarding a “national political process” er option would be for the Council in con- the deteriorating security and humanitarian and favoured continued recognition of the sultation with the AU Peace and Security situation in Darfur and agree that there has DDPD as the basis for mediation. Other Council to modify the mandate of the Joint been a general lack of progress in imple- members, particularly the US, supported lan- Chief Mediator (as most recently outlined in menting DDPD. Some members have also guage regarding the need for a national dia- resolution 2113) to provide more flexibility expressed concerns regarding the level of logue and implying that the DDPD should regarding the basis for future negotiations UNAMID’s achievements in relation to its not necessarily be the only recognised basis regarding Darfur (i.e., only the DDPD or cost. As of press time, it is unclear how Coun- for future mediation. perhaps a national dialogue), the parties to cil members will react to specific, technical The UK is the penholder on UNAMID, be included in talks (i.e., only Darfur-based recommendations in the forthcoming report the US is the penholder on Sudan sanctions groups or the Sudan Revolutionary Front) for improving UNAMID’s effectiveness. and Argentina is chair of the 1591 Sudan and modes for more effective coordination With respect to mediation, differences Sanctions Committee. with other mediation processes (e.g., the AU seem to have emerged among Council mem- High-level Implementation Panel). bers during negotiations over resolution 2138.

Somalia

Expected Council Action Key Recent Developments vehicle outside the coastal town of Barawe, In March, the Council will be briefed on the Chronic insecurity continues to be prevalent apparently killing a senior Al-Shabaab intel- Secretary-General’s report on the UN Assis- throughout Somalia, including in the capi- ligence official, Ahmed Mohamed Amey. tance Mission in Somalia (UNSOM) by Spe- tal, Mogadishu. On 1 January, Al-Shabaab Media reports suggest he had close ties to Al- cial Representative of the Secretary-General exploded two car bombs outside the Jazeera Shabaab leader Ahmed Abdi Godane, advis- Nicholas Kay. The Special Representative Hotel in Mogadishu, killing at least 10 people. ing on kidnapping and suicide bombings. of the Chairperson of the AU Commission On 13 February, an Al-Shabaab car bomb On 22 January, AMISOM’s troop deploy- for Somalia, Mahamet Saleh Annadif, is also apparently targeting a UN convoy exploded ment increased with the formal incorporation expected to brief the Council. The briefing is near the airport in Mogadishu, killing at least of 4,395 troops from the Ethiopian National likely to be followed by consultations. Coun- seven people (none of the casualties were Defence Forces (ENDF). The ENDF contin- cil members are also scheduled to be briefed UN staff). More recently, on 21 February gents are anticipated to operate in the Bakool, in consultations by Ambassador Oh Joon Al-Shabaab launched a terrorist attack on Vil- Bay and Gedo regions. Their addition brings (South Korea), chair of the 751/1907 Soma- la Somalia, the presidential palace, in which AMISOM’s total force strength close to lia-Eritrea Sanctions Committee. Council two senior government officials, one SNSF the 22,126 troop ceiling authorised by the members may also hold an informal interac- soldier and nine attackers were killed. The Council in resolution 2124 on 12 November tive dialogue regarding the AU Mission in Council issued press statements condemn- 2013. However, as the ENDF were already Somalia (AMISOM). ing each of these terrorist attacks (SC/11240, conducting counter-insurgency operations The modification of the arms embargo on SC/11277 and SC/11291). within Somalia, their incorporation into Somalia authorised in resolution 2093 on 6 Meanwhile, Kenya and the US have AMISOM is effectively a re-hatting and does March 2013, which removed most restric- launched air strikes targeting Al-Shabaab. In not seem to be a net increase in the troops tions on the importation of small arms for the the first major aerial bombing undertaken by available to fight Al-Shabaab. intended use of the Somali National Security Kenya since October, fighter jets attacked a According to the confidential mid-term Forces (SNSF), is due to expire on 6 March. camp in the Gedo region on 9 January killing report of the Somalia and Eritrea Monitor- The Council may take action to renew these more than 30 insurgents and commanders, ing Group (SEMG), which was leaked to provisions in some form. according to the Kenyan Defence Forces. On Reuters, there has been “high-level and sys- 26 January, a US missile strike hit a moving tematic abuses in weapons and ammunition

UN DOCUMENTS ON SOMALIA Security Council Resolutions S/RES/2124 (12 November 2013) extended the mandate of AMISOM until 31 October 2014 and increased the troop ceiling from 17,731 to 22,126. S/RES/2093 (6 March 2013) modified the arms embargo on Somalia for a period of one year. Security Council Letters S/2014/100 (13 February 2014) transmitted a progress report on AMISOM’s implementation of its mandate. S/2013/791 (31 December 2013) transmitted the annual report of the 751/1907 Somalia-Eritrea Sanctions Committee. S/2013/764 (24 December 2013) updated the Council regarding the Secretary-General’s plans to deploy a static UN guard unit. Security Council Meeting Records S/PV.7078 (10 December 2013) concerned a briefing on UNSOM. S/PV.7056 (12 November 2013) concerned the adoption of resolution 2124. Security Council Press Statements SC/11291 (21 February 2014) condemned the terrorist attack by Al-Shabaab on the Office of the President of the FGS.SC/11277 (13 February 2014) condemned the terrorist attack by Al-Shabaab on a UN convoy in Mogadishu. SC/11240 (2 January 2014) condemned the terrorist attacks by Al-Shabaab in Mogadishu. Secretary-General’s Report S/2013/709 (2 December 2013) was a report of the Secretary-General on UNSOM. Other Relevant Facts Size and Composition of AMISOM: 22,056 uniformed personnel deployed across four sectors, compris- ing troops from Burundi (5,338), Djibouti (1,000), Ethiopia (4,395), Kenya (3,664), Sierra Leone (850) and Uganda (6,220), plus 75 headquarters staff officers and 514 police. USEFUL ADDITIONAL RESOURCES No Place Like Home: Returns and Relocations of Somalia’s Displaced, Amnesty International, February 2014. Matt Bryden, The Reinvention of Al-Shabaab: A Strategy of Choice or Necessity?, Center for Strategic and International Studies, February 2014.

12 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast March 2013 Somalia (con’t) management and distribution” by the Fed- semi-autonomous region of Puntland. Gas Key Issues eral Government of Somalia (FGS) since beat the incumbent, Abdirahman Farole, by In March, the most immediate issue for the resolution 2093 modified the arms embargo. a vote of 33 to 32 among members of parlia- Council’s consideration is the modified arms The report also states that weapons distri- ment (MPs). (Puntland has indirect presi- embargo, whose partial suspension is due to bution “along clan lines for the prosecution dential elections in which clan elders repre- expire on 6 March. of clan warfare” has impeded counter-insur- senting a specific distribution of sub-clans More broadly, the Council will like- gency efforts against Al-Shabaab. The SEMG first select the MPs and then the MPs elect ly be focused on assessing UNSOM and recommends either reinstating a compre- the president). As Farole had cut off ties with AMISOM, particularly regarding what hensive arms embargo or tightening the the FGS in August, the election of Gas may impact changes to the mandate of the latter monitoring and reporting requirements for bode well for future relations between Punt- (i.e., an increase in the troop ceiling and fur- arms imports by the FGS. President Hassan land and the FGS. ther mechanisms for financial support) that Sheikh Mohamud has stated that Somalia In a series of events that may be indicative were authorised on 12 November might have intends to lobby the Council to maintain the of the current limits of state power in Somalia, on the effectiveness of the former. partial lifting of the arms embargo. Referenc- the largest national provider of mobile inter- ing the FGS report on small arms that was net service, Hormuud Telecom, shut down Options due 6 February, Somalia has also written to all mobile internet service on 6 February. In One option is for the Council to renew the the chair of the sanctions committee refuting January, apparently out of concern about provisions that modified the arms embargo charges made in the SEMG report. various forms of Western surveillance tech- prior to their expiration on 6 March, thus The humanitarian consequences of pro- nology being used for counter-insurgency enabling the uninterrupted importation of tracted fighting in Somalia are quite severe. purposes, Al-Shabaab had declared a ban on small arms by the FGS as delineated in reso- Speaking at a press briefing on 19 February all mobile internet services in Somalia. Hor- lution 2093. after a three-day trip to Somalia, John Ging, muud Telecom, citing security concerns after Another option is for the Council to renew operations director for the UN Office of having been subject to specific threats from modification of the arms embargo while also the Coordination for Humanitarian Affairs Al-Shabaab, complied with the ban, includ- including substantial additional language (OCHA), said two million people are coping ing within government-held territory such as imposing tighter monitoring, reporting and with food insecurity in the country. Forced Mogadishu. regulatory requirements on the FGS for migration also continues to be an acute The Council last addressed Somalia on importing small arms. problem. According to OCHA data, more 10 December 2013 in a briefing, via vid- A third option is to take no action prior than one million people are internally dis- eoconference from Mogadishu by Kay, on to 6 March, in which case the provisions of placed, and there are more than one million the Secretary-General’s quarterly report on resolution 2093 related to modification of Somali refugees in nearby countries. Ging UNSOM (S/2013/709), issued 2 December the arms embargo would expire and the pri- also noted that merely 4 percent of the $933 (S/PV.7078). While acknowledging the imme- or (i.e., more comprehensive) arms embargo million in the 2014 appeal had been met diate political and security challenges facing would be reinstated. thus far by donors. Somalia, Kay emphasised that state-building Politically, Somalia has been unstable is a long-term process requiring continued Council and Wider Dynamics over the last several months. Donors have engagement by the international community. There is likely to be backing for renewal of expressed concern regarding the resignation modification of the arms embargo among key of the central bank governor, Yusur Abrar, in Human Rights-Related Developments allies of the FGS within the Council, par- November. After only seven weeks on the Following the appointment of Prime Minister ticularly the US and the UK, although the Ahmed, Shamsul Bari, the independent expert on job, she cited widespread corruption in the mid-term report of the SEMG does raise dif- the situation of human rights in Somalia, urged the FGS as her rationale for quitting and fled the FSG on 26 December to finalise and implement a ficult and important issues regarding corrup- country. There was also a contentious power human rights roadmap that had been endorsed by tion and the ability of the FGS to regulate struggle between President Mohamud and the government in August. small arms transfers. Certain Council mem- Prime Minister Abdi Farah Shirdon Saaid. During the 24th session of the Human Rights bers which had privately expressed reserva- Council last September, Bari participated in a This came to a conclusion on 2 December, tions regarding resolution 2093 (although it high-level dialogue to discuss how to maximise when Shirdon lost a vote of confidence in the effectiveness of assistance as well as ensur- passed unanimously) may raise these points Parliament and was removed from office (the ing implementation of the roadmap. A summary of once again. The most likely outcome would vote was 184 against and 64 in favour). The the key conclusions of this dialogue was released seem to be renewing modification of the new prime minister, Abdiweli Sheikh Ahmed, on 8 January (A/HRC/25/45). It includes two rec- arms embargo, but with stronger monitoring ommendations for the UN: ensuring that monitor- did not assume office until 26 December and and reporting provisions. However, given the ing and reporting by the human rights component the new cabinet was appointed only on 16 of UNSOM is prioritised and establishing a com- poor implementation of sanctions regulations January, seven days after the 40-day consti- mission of inquiry to document serious crimes thus far by the FGS, it is reasonable to ques- tutional limit. committed in Somalia. tion whether the FGS is willing and able to Meanwhile, on 8 January, Abdiweli Ali improve compliance in the future. Gas was elected as the new president of the In terms of the evolving relations among

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast March 2013 securitycouncilreport.org 13 Somalia (con’t) the FGS, AU and the UN, developments complicated dynamics, particularly with key FGS resurfacing. The optimism characteris- over the last few months have been mixed at troop contributors to AMISOM such as Ethi- ing backers of the FGS as recently as the EU best. Resolution 2124, with an increase in the opia and Kenya, whose own national interests donor conference last September seems to AMISOM troop ceiling and related provi- can also conflict with Somalia’s (e.g. power have dissipated. sions for military hardware and better financ- struggles over the port city of Kismayo and The UK is the penholder on Somalia, ing, undoubtedly improved relations between past disputes between SNSF and ENDF). the US is the penholder on piracy and the the Council and the AU Peace and Secu- Likewise, relations between the FGS and the Republic of Korea is the chair of the 751/1907 rity Council with respect to policymaking on international community have deteriorated, Somalia-Eritrea Sanctions Committee. Somalia. However, interaction between the with longstanding concerns regarding cor- FGS and the AU has been characterised by ruption and the governance capacity of the

Central African Republic

Expected Council Action the protection of civilians in cooperation with proportions. Massive ethno-religious cleans- In March, the Council will be briefed on the the international forces on the ground (S/ ing is continuing”. situation in the Central African Republic RES/2134). In a letter to the Secretary-General of 27 (CAR) and the Secretary-General’s report on According to media reports, the first sol- January, the CAR foreign minister, Léonie the possible transformation of the African-led diers of the EU force to the CAR, authorised Banga-Bothy, wrote that her country faces International Support Mission in the CAR by resolution 2134, will arrive in March. The several challenges, including the need to (MISCA) into a UN peacekeeping operation. force will aim to secure an area in Bangui for establish state authority, prepare for elections The Council may also be briefed by Under- humanitarian work and is expected to con- and build state institutions, including police, Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs sist of up to 1,000 troops. On 14 February, gendarmerie, customs, the justice system and Valerie Amos on her recent visit to the CAR. France announced that it would strengthen social services. The Council may adopt a resolution estab- its 1,600-troop operation by an additional In his briefing to the Council on UN-EU lishing a peacekeeping mission in the CAR 400 troops. cooperation on 14 February, the Secretary- and providing further support for the exist- Thousands are estimated to have been General stated that there is a crucial oppor- ing forces. killed since last March, and some 833,000 tunity to fortify the collective efforts of the Also in March, at the initiative of France, people have been internally displaced UN, AU and EU in the CAR (S/PV.7112). Council members may hold an “Arria formula” across the country. The UN Refugee Agen- He added that he would return to the Coun- meeting with religious leaders from the CAR, cy (UNHCR) reported on 12 February an cil with recommendations for containing and co-chaired by Chad and France. additional 268,779 people seeking refuge in then ending this crisis. The mandate of the UN Integrated Peace- Cameroon, Chad, Congo and the Demo- The Council was briefed on 20 Febru- building Office in the CAR (BINUCA) cratic Republic of the Congo. Half of the 4.6 ary on the situation in the CAR by the Sec- expires on 31 January 2015. million population is reportedly in need of retary-General and Smail Chergui, the AU humanitarian assistance. Since the resigna- Commissioner for Peace and Security (S/ Key Recent Developments tion of interim President Michel Djotodia PV.7116). This was followed by an interactive Since the Séléka uprising, culminating in the on 10 January, there has been an increase dialogue session between Council members 24 March 2013 ousting of President François in violence against Muslims, who comprise and Chergui and the head of MISCA, Major Bozizé, the CAR has fallen into a state of law- roughly 15 percent of the population. The General Jean-Marie Mokoko. The Secretary- lessness, with a complete breakdown in state Christian anti-balaka militias have increased General stated during the briefing that reli- authority and a growing humanitarian crisis. their attacks on Muslims, as have mobs of gious violence is causing a de-facto partition The situation worsened despite the deploy- civilians who have carried out gruesome kill- of the country between Christians and Mus- ment of MISCA and Opération Sangaris by ings of Muslims in recent weeks. As a result, lims. He noted that in his upcoming report French forces, as authorised in resolution thousands of Muslims have been fleeing to on the possible transformation of MISCA 2127. On 28 January, the Council renewed the north, where most of the Muslim popula- into a UN peacekeeping mission, in accor- BINUCA for 12 months and authorised an tion resides. Guterres said the situation was dance with resolution 2127 (due by 5 March) EU mission to the CAR for six months for a “humanitarian catastrophe of unspeakable he will present an outline for the deployment

UN DocumentS on the CAR Security Council Resolutions S/RES/2134 (28 January 2014) renewed BINUCA’s mandate and authorised the EU mission and targeted sanctions. S/RES/2127 (5 December 2013) authorised MISCA and a French intervention force. Secretary-General’s Reports S/2013/787 (31 December 2013) was the latest report on BINUCA. S/2013/677 (15 November 2013) was on options for international support to MISCA. Security Council Letters S/2014/98 (13 February 2014) was from the Secretary-General on the appointment of the Panel of Experts. S/2014/45 (21 January 2014) was on the EU authorisation of a mission to the CAR. Sanctions Committee Documents SC/11271 (10 February 2014) was a press release on the 6 February meeting of the Sanctions Committee with the CAR and neighbouring states. Other Relevant Facts Special Representative and Head of BINUCA Babacar Gaye (Senegal) BINUCA Size and Composition Strength as of 31 December 2013: 60 international civilians, 79 local civilians, two military advisers, two police and four UN volunteers. BINUCA Duration 1 January 2010 to present

14 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast March 2013 Central African Republic (con’t) of a UN peacekeeping mission for the pro- million for infrastructure. forces in the meantime, in accordance tection of civilians and promotion of stabil- Amos visited the CAR from 18-20 Febru- with the Secretary-General’s plan; ity. But as a UN mission will take months to ary. She expressed shock at the atrocities tak- • issuing a presidential or press statement in deploy, he presented an urgent six point plan: ing place and stressed the need to send more lieu of a resolution and in light of further • rapid reinforcement of troops on the troops to provide security. developments and challenges, to express ground (noting that the AU is willing to the Council’s commitment to help solve consider further deployment on top of the Human Rights-Related Developments the continuing crisis; additional French and EU troops due to On 11 February, the spokesperson for the High • undertaking a Council visiting mission; Commissioner for Human Rights, Rupert Colville, arrive); and said that the security situation in Bangui contin- • a coordinated command for these forces; ued to deteriorate, with targeted assassinations, • listing individuals for violations of the cri- • a logistical support package to MISCA; increased violence and criminality on the streets. teria set out under resolution 2134, either • support for the government to establish Colville recounted the 9 February events: the by the Council or in the Committee. basic state authority; assassination of a member of the National Transi- tional Council, Jean-Emmanuel Ndjaroua; the loot- • expediting reconciliation and the political Council and Wider Dynamics ing of houses of Séléka ministers; and the attack process; and against two magistrates. Colville also said that Since the Council adopted resolution 2127, • more funding for humanitarian aid. UN human rights staff in the CAR conducted a the possibility of establishing a UN peace- Chergui asked the Council to approve a mission to Boda following the killing of 92 people keeping operation continues to be the main support package that will allow MISCA to on religious grounds between 30 January and 5 topic of discussion among Council members. February. He expressed concern at the climate of succesfully stabilise the CAR and lay the In previous discussions, Russia, the US and complete impunity in the country. groundwork for the deployment of a UN During its 25th session in March, the Human the African Council members took the posi- peacekeeping mission. Rights Council will consider a report of the High tion that MISCA and the other internation- On 21 February, while briefing Council Commissioner for Human Rights on the situation al forces should be given time to fulfil their members in consultations, Under-Secretary- in the CAR (A/HRC/25/43) and the report of the mandates and restore security in the CAR, General for Political Affairs, Jeffrey Feltman working group on the Universal Periodic Review while close attention should be paid to ensur- on the country (A/HRC/25/11). reiterated the urgency of the situation. Most ing the success of the transitional political Council members were in agreement that the process. The AU, on which a UN peacekeep- Council should take action soon in accor- Key Issues ing mission would likely be dependent for dance with the six point. A key issue for the Council is to develop troops, also maintained that the establish- ICC Prosecutor Fatou Bensouda and sustain a hands-on approach towards ment of a UN mission should wait. announced on 7 February that the Court will the CAR. This may entail authorising a UN Among the points raised by some Coun- open a preliminary investigation into crimes peacekeeping mission in the near future. cil members against creating a UN peace- that have allegedly been committed in the A related issue is providing effective sup- keeping mission are budgetary concerns CAR by various groups. port to MISCA and the other internation- and questions about whether such a mission In sanctions-related developments, on 6 al forces so they can restore security in the is the appropriate response to stabilise the February, the 2127 CAR Sanctions Commit- country immediately. CAR at this juncture, as the situation still tee, established on 5 December 2013, held Another issue is ensuring that BINUCA requires a more robust peace enforcement an exchange of views on the implementation can fulfil its mandate in light of the dire secu- response. Other members view the situation of the arms embargo with countries from rity situation, including as a possible civil- as necessitating a robust law-and-order man- the region. On 13 February, the Secretary- ian component of a future UN peacekeeping date in lieu of state authority, rather than General, after consulting with the members mission. peace enforcement. of the Committee, appointed the Panel of An additional issue is ensuring that the In view of the Secretary-General’s Experts. The chair, Ambassador Raimonda transitional political process, now under new upcoming report, and in light of the rap- Murmokaitė (Lithuania) briefed the Council leadership, moves forward successfully. idly deteriorating situation on the ground, on the work of the Committee on 21 February. it seems that there is growing openness to The new chair of the CAR Peacebuild- Options a UN peacekeeping mission and a growing ing configuration, Ambassador Moham- Options for the Council include: consensus that Council action on the CAR med Loulichki (Morocco), intends to visit • establishing a peacekeeping operation and is needed in the immediate future, as any the country in early March. In the meet- transforming BINUCA into its civilian UN mission would take several months to ing of the configuration on 19 February, the component with an emphasis on estab- become operational. World Bank pledged 100 million dollars for lishing law and order; France is the penholder on the CAR. projects in the CAR and an additional 150 • authorising further support for the above

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast March 2013 securitycouncilreport.org 15 Democratic Republic of the Congo

Human Rights-Related Developments Expected Council Action (M23) rebel group. Gasana replied that the During its 25th session in March, the Human In March, the Security Council will be DRC should “stop whining every time it Rights Council will hold a high-level dialogue on briefed on the situation in the Democratic comes before the Council and…stop bash- the lessons learned from and the continuing chal- Republic of the Congo (DRC) by the Special ing Rwanda”. lenges in combating sexual violence in the DRC to Representative of the Secretary-General and After the military success of the Forces allow countries in conflict and post-conflict situa- tions share their experiences. head of the UN Organization Stabilization armées de la république démocratique du Congo Mission in the DRC (MONUSCO), Mar- (FARDC) and the MONUSCO interven- tin Kobler. The Special Envoy to the Great tion brigade against the M23, an agreement Key Issues Lakes Region, Mary Robinson, will also brief between the M23 and the DRC was signed The key issue for the Council is to renew on the implementation of the Peace, Security in Nairobi on 12 December 2013. The DRC MONUSCO’s mandate, including the inter- and Cooperation Framework for the DRC agreed to grant amnesty to those M23 mem- vention brigade with modified tasks to focus and the Region (PSC Framework). bers who are only accused of taking up arms, more specifically on the ADF, FDLR and The Council is also expected to renew and the M23 is to disarm and become a Mai-Mai groups. MONUSCO’s mandate, which expires on political party. At press time, close to 1,300 A continuing issue is maintaining engage- 31 March, for another year. M23 members were still awaiting their fate ment with the DRC to closely oversee in a camp in Uganda. On 12 February, DRC MONUSCO, in particular the transition Key Recent Developments President Joseph Kabila declared amnesty for of its operations from western to eastern The Council has demonstrated renewed acts of insurgency and political offences com- DRC and the operations of the intervention engagement with the DRC in recent months mitted up to 20 December 2013. brigade. as dramatic developments occurred on the While there have been some encouraging Another key issue is to ensure the imple- ground. developments with respect to stabilising spe- mentation of the PSC Framework at the In a 13 January briefing (S/PV.7094), cific areas in North Kivu and the surrender of national and regional levels. Kobler reported to the Council on the situa- 8,000 rebels who are awaiting reintegration, tion in the DRC and the latest MONUSCO other rebel groups (estimated at about 40 in Options report (S/2013/757). Robinson also briefed total) continue to operate and wreak havoc Options for the Council include: on her activities and the latest report on on civilians. • renewing MONUSCO’s mandate, includ- the implementation of the PSC Framework In a recent attack in Masisi territory, ing the mandate of the intervention (S/2013/773). North Kivu, in late January and early Feb- brigade; The chair of the 1533 DRC Sanctions ruary, Mai-Mai rebels are believed to have • specifying the tasks of the intervention bri- Committee, Ambassador Zeid Ra’ad Zeid used machetes to execute 70 civilians in gade to address threats posed by specific Al-Hussein (Jordan), briefed the Council on three villages that were subsequently burnt armed groups, such as the ADF and the 23 January on the Group of Experts (GoE) to the ground. FDLR; and final report (S/2014/42). The Committee met On 18 February, MONUSCO announced • calling on MONUSCO to further expand with the GoE to discuss the report and their it would reinforce its presence in Katanga. the transition of its activities to the east. recommendations on 17 January. More than 400,000 people have been dis- The Council unanimously renewed the placed, and Mai-Mai rebels have burnt down Council Dynamics DRC sanctions regime and the mandate more than 60 villages in the region since Sep- Council members are hopeful that the recent of the GoE on 30 January (S/RES/2136). tember 2013. military achievements against the M23 will However, after the adoption, Ambassador The FARDC has been engaged in fight- be followed by a political process. Several Eugène-Richard Gasana (Rwanda) stated in ing the Allied Democratic Forces (ADF)— Council members are of the view that at this relation to the GoE “that the use of a Unit- a Ugandan Islamist rebel group—in North point much focus should be given to national ed Nations sanctioned and funded mecha- Kivu since January. According to the DRC, reforms, the reintegration of former rebels nism to launch deliberate attacks against 22 FARDC soldiers and 230 ADF reb- and the establishment of state authority. States…by making grave, unsubstantiated els have been killed in the fighting thus far. Council members are in general agree- and damaging accusations without any Kobler has identified the ADF as a prior- ment that the intervention brigade, though credible evidence is totally unacceptable”. ity for MONUSCO, along with the Forces it only engaged directly with the M23 on a Ambassador Ignace Lufuta (DRC) accused démocratiques de libération du Rwanda (FDLR), few occasions, played a significant role in the both Rwanda and Uganda of violating their a Hutu rebel group. FARDC’s military success against the M23. commitments by assisting the 23 March This success, along with the lack of progress

UN Documents on the DRC Security Council Resolutions S/RES/2136 (30 January 2014) renewed DRC sanctions and the GoE until 1 February 2015. S/RES/2098 (28 March 2013) renewed MONUSCO—including an intervention brigade to neutralise rebel groups in eastern DRC—until 31 March 2014. Security Council Presidential Statement S/PRST/2013/17 (14 November 2013) called for the swift conclusion and implementation of a final outcome between the DRC and the M23. Security Council Meeting S/PV.7094 (13 January 2014) was a briefing by Kobler and Robinson.Secretary-General’s Reports S/2013/773 (23 December 2013) was on the implementation of the PSC Framework. S/2013/757 (17 December 2013) was on MONUSCO. Sanctions Committee Documents S/2014/42 (23 January 2014) contained the GoE’s final report. S/2013/433 (19 July 2013) was the interim report of the GoE assisting the 1533 DRC Sanctions Committee. Other Relevant Facts Special Representative of the Secretary-General and Head of Mission Martin Kobler (Germany) MONUSCO Force Commander Lieutenant General Carlos Alberto dos Santos Cruz (Brazil) MONUSCO Size, Composition and Cost of Mission: Strength as of 31 December 2013: 21,198 troops (including 526 military observers and 1,299 police), 998 international civilian personnel, 2,970 local civilian staff and 573 UN volunteers. Approved budget (1 July 2013-30 June 2014): $1.46 billion Mission Duration: July 2010 to present

16 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast March 2013 Democratic Republic of the Congo (con’t) on establishing a DRC rapid-reaction force with the support of some Council members, intervention brigade. to eventually replace the intervention bri- will likely push for the mandate to include France is the penholder on the DRC. gade, will likely result in the renewal of the strong language on the FDLR, in par- brigade’s mandate for another year. Rwanda, ticular with respect to the priorities of the

Liberia

Expected Council Action 19. It found that people believe corruption Liberia, without informing authorities, to In March, the Council expects a briefing by in Liberia remains widespread, particularly raise awareness among Ivorian militia com- Karin Landgren, Special Representative of in government services, such as civil pro- manders about a resettlement program to the Secretary-General and head of the UN tection, health and education. The judiciary return to Côte d’Ivoire. Mission in Liberia (UNMIL) on the Sec- ranked as having the highest perceived levels A trial in Monrovia of 18 Liberians retary-General’s report that will include an of bribery. accused of participating in cross-border update on UNMIL’s ongoing reconfigura- Forty prisoners escaped from the Voinja- attacks in western Côte d’Ivoire, including tion. Ambassador Staffan Tillander (Swe- ma Prison in Lofa County on 18 December. an attack that killed seven UN peacekeepers den), chair of the Liberia configuration of Also in Lofa County, approximately 300 resi- on 8 June 2012, was suspended by the judge the Peacebuilding Commission (PBC), will dents forcibly entered on 4 January a police in early January for security reasons. also brief the Council following his recent station, beating a murder suspect and report- The UN High Commission for Refugees visit to the country. The briefing will likely be edly stealing four weapons. accused Liberia of violating international law followed by consultations. The Department of Peacekeeping Opera- when it deported to Côte d’Ivoire 14 Ivorian The mandate of UNMIL expires on 30 tions conducted a strategic review of UNMIL registered refugees in the early morning of 17 September. No outcome is expected. and the UN Operation in Côte d’Ivoire February. The men, who had been arrested in from 7-19 February to assess their military southeast Liberia, were suspected of involve- Key Recent Developments and police components. The review intends ment in cross-border attacks. In resolution 2128, adopted on 10 December to make recommendations for enhanced 2013, the Council took steps to scale back the coordination and cooperation between the Developments in the Peacebuilding Liberia sanctions while renewing the sanctions two peacekeeping operations, including the Commission regime for another year. Changes were made development of a UNOCI quick-reaction From 2-7 February, Tillander visited Liberia and met with President Ellen Sirleaf Johnson and to notification requirements on arms trans- force that could support UNMIL if security other government officials and stakeholders to fers and military assistance, and the resolution issues arise during its ongoing drawdown. discuss ways to accelerate progress in national directed the 1521 Liberia Sanctions Com- (Resolution 2116, adopted on 18 Septem- reconciliation, justice and security. Among other mittee to review designated individuals and ber 2013, authorised UNMIL to reduce things, more dedicated financial resources from entities over the next three months and delist its military component by 1,129 personnel the government are required. Progress has also been slowed by its limited implementation capac- those that do not pose a threat to the country between October 2013 and September 2014 ity. Tillander also attended a workshop of the anymore. The mandate of the Panel of Experts during the second phase of its three-year Gbarnga justice and security hub (created to (PoE) was changed to no longer include mon- drawdown plan, which will leave the opera- increase access to justice and security services itoring of natural resources. It additionally tion with approximately 5,550 soldiers and in the historically neglected interior). Achieve- specified that a review of the sanctions would police by July 2015.) ments and difficulties with the hub were reviewed to provide lessons for the next two hubs, which occur in six months “with a view to further The latest Liberia PoE report revealed are due to become operational over the next year. modifying or lifting all” the sanctions. that the Bureau of Operational Intelligence of Tillander also held discussions with the gov- The Committee delisted Benoni Urey the Ministry of the Interior of Côte d’Ivoire ernment, local community groups and business from the asset freeze and travel ban sanc- has been paying Liberian mercenaries to not representatives following his communication with tions on 23 December. Urey had been com- launch attacks against Côte d’Ivoire (no new the Sanctions Committee on several of the PoE’s recommendations in its final report on natural missioner of maritime affairs under former cross-border attacks have been reported since resource management and land-related issues. President Charles Taylor. On 26 December, March 2013) (S/2013/683). It also described Urey announced that he would run for presi- a lack of coordination between both coun- dent in 2017. tries as highlighted by the detention of a Côte Key Issues A survey measuring public perceptions d’Ivoire delegation and a UNOCI staff mem- A key issue will be progress in the drawdown of corruption, conducted by the National ber in Liberia on 23 May 2013. The delega- of UNMIL and efforts by Liberia to fill the Integrity Forum was released on December tion and UNOCI individual had crossed into gaps where peacekeepers have left, the latter

UN Documents on LIBERIA Security Council Resolutions S/RES/2128 (10 December 2013) renewed the sanctions regime for 12 months. S/RES/2116 (18 September 2013) extended the mandate of UNMIL until 30 September 2014. Secretary-General’s Report S/2013/479 (12 August 2013) was on UNMIL. Sanctions Committee Documents S/2013/683 (19 November 2013) was the final report of the PoE on Liberia.

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast March 2013 securitycouncilreport.org 17 Liberia (con’t) of which is viewed as moving too slowly. expectation that the US will soon provide national reconciliation and completion of Another issue is the slow deployment of the Sanctions Committee with recommen- the justice hubs (this is a less likely option). the regional justice hubs outside Monrovia. dations for additional delistings is a further Members will look forward to learning related issue. Council Dynamics more about the strategic review conducted Concerns about land rights, natural Council members are largely in agreement by DPKO. resource management, corruption and youth on Liberia and implementing UNMIL’s Improving border security management is unemployment are ongoing issues. drawdown. another issue, in particular with Côte d’Ivoire Preparations for the October senatorial Differences exist among members over but also with Sierra Leone and Guinea, where elections in which 15 of 30 Senate seats are the winding down of the sanctions regime. mercenaries and ex-combatants reportedly up for election, will be a further issue of inter- For the forthcoming sanctions review, France, cross and which are vulnerable to arms and est for the Council. the UK and the US are keen to see the regime drug trafficking. scaled back further or lifted entirely. Other Regarding sanctions, their upcoming Options members oppose this, a position they say is review will be an important issue for the The Council could receive the briefing and supported by findings and recommendations Council. Related to it are the plans Liberia take no action or issue a press statement in the PoE reports. has to strengthen safeguards for controlling calling on the government to accelerate The US is the penholder on Liberia. arms if the sanctions are reduced further. The the assumption of security responsibilities,

Sierra Leone

Expected Council Action (SC/11133). Taylor was transferred to a pris- condemned constitutional amendments from The Security Council expects a briefing in on in the UK, where he will serve a 50-year 19 November that lifted the requirement March on Sierra Leone. Jens Anders Toy- sentence. The Special Court closed on 31 that the Speaker of Parliament be a high berg-Frandzen, Executive Representative of December, and the Residual Court for Sierra court judge. They claimed that the changes the Secretary-General and head of the UN Leone took over on 1 January after its 16 judg- pre-empted the work of the Constitutional Integrated Peacebuilding Office in Sierra es were sworn in on 2 December in Freetown. Review Committee. Despite the protestations, Leone (UNIPSIL), is expected to brief the The public works minister and director Parliament elected Sheku Dumbuya of the Council for the last time before the mission’s of the roads authority were dismissed on incumbent All People’s Congress (APC) as mandate ends on 31 March. Ambassador 19 October, and on 18 February the energy the new speaker on 21 January. A member of Guillermo Rishchynski (Canada), chair of minister was fired due to criticism of the state the Constitutional Review Committee, Dr. the Sierra Leone configuration of the Peace- of the public infrastructure and recent power Omodele Jones, resigned the next day. building Commission (PBC), is also expect- outages, sectors which President Ernest Bai A court ruling on 27 November awarded ed to address the Council. Koroma had prioritised in the 2008 peace- parliamentary seats to APC candidates in two The Council may adopt a presidential or building strategy, Agenda for Change. constituencies in the southeast of the coun- press statement. Parliament adopted the Right to Access try. The candidates received only 10 percent Information Act on 29 October, which Koro- of the vote in those districts during the 17 Key Recent Developments ma signed into law several days later, requiring November 2012 elections. The decision was When the Council considered Sierra the government to establish a plan for mak- made on a legal technicality that disqualified Leone on 18 September 2013, Council mem- ing records publicly available. Conversely, the the SLPP candidates. With the ruling, the bers focused on progress in the drawdown criminal libel law was used to arrest, charge APC is one seat shy of a two-thirds majority of UNIPSIL and the transition of its tasks with sedition and jail on 18 October two in the Parliament, the vote needed, followed to the UN country team. Toyberg-Frandzen journalists of the Independent Observer who by a referendum, to amend the constitution. reported that the drawdown was progressing criticised Koroma. They were released on 4 Economically motivated unrest continued. according to schedule. He described general November after posting bail of 500 million On 10 December police fired on protestors stability in Sierra Leone, while noting ongo- Leones ($115,000) each. According to Report- upset about the expansion of palm oil plan- ing challenges (S/PV.7034). ers Without Borders, which has expressed con- tations in southern Pujehun province. A gov- On 26 September 2013, the Special Court cern over the libel law, in total seven journalists ernment committee was established to inves- for Sierra Leone rejected former Liberian have been arrested since October. tigate landowners’ grievances in the district. President Charles Taylor’s appeal, which The opposition Sierra Leone People’s A 19 February report by Human Rights the Council welcomed in a press statement Party (SLPP) and civil society groups Watch, “Whose Development? Human

UN Documents on Sierra Leone Security Council Resolution S/RES/2097 (26 March 2013) renewed the mandate of UNIPSIL until 31 March 2014. Security Council Press Statement SC/11133 (27 September 2013) welcomed the Special Court for Sierra Leone’s rejection of Charles Taylor’s appeal. Security Council Meeting Record S/PV.7034 (18 September 2013) was the Council’s last meeting on Sierra Leone.

18 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast March 2013 Sierra Leone (con’t)

Rights Abuses in Sierra Leone’s Mining religious leaders to speak out publicly against drug trafficking and organised crime. Some Boom,” documents violations of workers’ and these practices. of these are problems common to peace- local communities’ rights by African Minerals building. Others are viewed as underlying Limited, the largest employer in Sierra Leone, Key Issues causes of the civil war. and the government’s failure to address com- The key issue for the Council will be to con- The interconnectedness of the Manu Riv- plaints and enforce its labour laws. firm that the transition of remaining tasks er Union states (Sierra Leone, Guinea, Libe- (supporting political dialogue and the con- ria and Côte d’Ivoire) means that fragility in Developments in the Peacebuilding stitutional review, security sector reform and one country can impact others. Building up Commission human rights) to the UN Country Team border security capability to deal with illicit A PBC assessment mission visited Sierra Leone or government is on track to be completed trafficking and the movement of mercenaries between 18-22 November, in line with a request in resolution 2097 that the PBC “review its engage- by 31 March, under the terms of resolution and ex-combatants remains a need. ment with a view to scaling down its role”. In its 2097. In this context, members will be inter- report, the assessment mission recommended ested to receive an update on the constitu- Options that the PBC reduce its engagement and be tional review, which started on 30 July and is The Council could take no action or issue a “more reactive” through monitoring developments planned to take two years. presidential statement congratulating Sierra while maintaining the ability to advocate for resources in specific cases. In March 2015, the An ongoing issue, to be carried over by Leone and UNIPSIL on the completion of PBC should review this new, lighter approach. the UK and UNDP, will be the security sec- the mission’s work. Rishchynshki visited Sierra Leone from 25 tor reform where work is still required in the February to 2 March to discuss the proposal with training and professionalising of the police. Council Dynamics the government and gain its agreement. All members consider that the time is right Underlying Problems for the end of UNIPSIL. Human Rights-Related Developments Despite UNIPSIL’s end, Sierra Leone will During the negotiations on resolution During its 25th session in March, the Human continue to face challenges. Corruption is 2097, the UK, the penholder on Sierra Leone, Rights Council will consider the report of the Spe- widespread and there is low public confi- initially proposed that PBC engagement with cial Rapporteur on freedom of religion or belief, Heiner Bielefeldt, on his mission to Sierra Leone dence in the government. Tensions between Sierra Leone end at the same time as UNIP- from 30 June to 5 July 2013 (A/HRC/25/58/ and within political parties is a potential SIL. Some members were more cautious and Add.1). Bielefeldt identified serious challenges source of instability. the recent PBC assessment mission, in which including harassment and persecution of persons Concerns remain over natural-resource the UK participated, should quell most dis- suspected of “witchcraft” and harmful practices management and the environment, land cussion on this issue. such as female genital mutilation. He called upon rights, youth unemployment and, increasingly,

Libya

Expected Council Action Key Recent Developments January and Deputy Prime Minister al-Sidiq In March, the Council is expected to renew the In a 16 December 2013 presidential state- Abdelkarim survived an assassination attempt mandate of the UN Support Mission in Libya ment, the Council expressed its “grave con- on 29 January. The disruption of oil produc- (UNSMIL). Tarek Mitri, the Special Repre- cern at the worsening security situation and tion by federalist regional leaders seeking sentative of the Secretary-General and head of political divisions” in Libya. Armed clashes to profit from the oil trade in the east and UNSMIL, is expected to brief the Council on between Tabu and Tuareg groups and militias clashes between rival militias that resulted in the Secretary-General’s latest report. associated with the former Qaddafi regime in the closure of oil facilities and power stations The Council will also likely renew the the southern city of Sabha have resulted in seriously impacted the economy and pro- mandate of the Panel of Experts (PoE) more than 120 casualties since mid-January. duced water and electricity shortages in the assisting the 1970 Libya Sanctions Com- On 18 January, the General National Con- Cyrenaica region and its capital, Benghazi. mittee and the Council expects a briefing gress (GNC) declared a state of emergency The lack of stability in the country has by its chair, Ambassador Eugène-Richard in the south. sparked anti-government protests. On 14 Gasana (Rwanda). Political leaders and security force mem- January, armed protestors attacked the GNC, The mandates of UNSMIL and the PoE bers continue to be targeted. The Deputy demanding Prime Minister Ali Zeidan’s res- expire on 16 March and 14 April, respectively. Industry Minister was killed in Sirte on 11 ignation. On 21 January, the Islamist Justice

UN DOCUMENTS ON LIBYA Security Council Resolution S/RES/2095 (14 March 2013) extended the mandates of UNSMIL and the PoE. Security Council Presidential Statement S/PRST/2013/21 (16 December 2013) expressed the Council’s grave concern about the worsening security situation and political divisions in Libya and the importance of a single, inclu- sive national dialogue. Secretary-General’s Report S/2013/516 (5 September 2013) was the latest report on UNSMIL. Security Council Letters S/2013/705 (27 November 2013) and S/2013/704 (21 November 2013) was an exchange of letters regarding the establishment of a guard unit to protect UNSMIL. Security Council Meeting Record S/PV.7075 (9 December 2013) was the latest briefing on Libya. OTHER RELEVANT FACTS Special Representative of the Secretary-General and Head of UNSMIL Tarek Mitri (Lebanon) UNSMIL Size and Composition: Strength as of 31 December 2013: 148 international civilians, 79 local civilians, 11 police officers, three UN volunteers.UNSMIL Duration 16 September 2011 to present

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast March 2013 securitycouncilreport.org 19 Libya (con’t) and Construction Party pulled its five minis- the stability of the country and the region military procurement and enhanced capacity ters from the cabinet. There have been several given that “most weapons are still under the to secure stockpiles, is a related issue. attempts to pass a motion of no-confidence control of non-state armed actors and border at the GNC, but they have fallen short of control systems remain ineffective”. Options support among members. On 14 Febru- Options for the Council include adapting ary, Major General Khalifa Haftar, a lead- Human Rights-Related Developments UNSMIL’s mandate to the current security ing figure in the 2011 revolution, announced On 18 February, the Office of the High Commis- situation and prioritising key tasks within its sioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) called on the a coup against the government, which was broad mandate, such as: GNC to reconsider two recent legislative amend- denied by the government the same day. On ments: a revision to the Penal Code imposing • stressing the good offices role of the Secre- 18 February, militias from Zintan gave the prison sentences on any person “undermining the tary-General and the facilitation and pro- GNC a five-hour ultimatum to dissolve that February 17 revolution” or “publicly insulting one vision of technical support to the upcom- was not finally upheld. of the legislative, executive or judicial authorities” ing constitution-drafting and electoral and a regulation authorising relevant ministries to Deadlock in the GNC over the roadmap processes; take necessary measures to discontinue and pre- for the transition process and popular protests vent the broadcasting of satellite channels that • monitoring and protecting human rights; as a result of its inaction have fueled political are deemed hostile to the revolution. The OHCHR and divisions. In the last two months, UNSMIL pointed out that the February 17 revolution, whose • highlighting the importance of sufficient held five consultative meetings with political third anniversary was celebrated the day before, funding for UNSMIL’s work on counter- had included a guarantee of freedom of expres- factions to alleviate divisions. Consensus was ing illicit proliferation of arms and dispos- sion and opinion among its key goals. Further- not reached, and on 16 February, members more, the OHCHR condemned recent cases of ing of ammunition through the UN Mine of the GNC, whose mandate some believed reported violence and intimidation against mem- Action Services. was set to expire by 7 February, extended bers of the media and called for investigations Regarding the mandate of the PoE, the it until the end of the year and agreed on into these attacks. Council could incorporate some of the rec- early elections. (On 3 February, the GNC ommendations in the report such as: had revised the roadmap for the transition Key Issues • clarifying the mechanisms by which frozen providing for the approval of amendments An overarching issue is the deteriorating assets are disposed of; and to the Constitutional Declaration and a new security situation due to the existence of mili- • calling on the government to ensure election law in case the 60-member Constitu- tias that challenge the state’s monopoly on clearer procurement procedures for mili- tion Drafting Assembly (CDA) is unable to the legitimate use of force. The fragility of the tary materiel and more precise end-user complete its work within four months. CDA government and the continual threats against certificates. elections had to be held in two rounds on 20 the GNC are related issues. Although unlikely, the Council could and 26 February because violent incidents Breaking the stalemate in the political impose sanctions against armed militias and prevented electoral material from reaching process and ensuring the swift work of the other spoilers that significantly undermine some polling stations.) CDA is a key issue. Ensuring the inclusivity state authority and its monopoly on the legit- Saif Al-Islam Qaddafi, whose case was of the entire political process is a related issue. imate use of force. referred to the ICC in resolution 1970, (Tabu, Amazigh and Tuareg groups boycotted remains in jail in Zintan, held by a militia the elections for the CDA in late February.) Council Dynamics despite repeated calls by the court for his A pressing issue is ensuring the protection Although the deterioration of the security surrender. In an 11 October 2013 decision, of UNSMIL staff so it can carry out its man- situation and the fragility of the political Pre-Trial Chamber I concluded that the case date. (A 21 November 2013 letter from the transition are sources of common concern against former intelligence chief Abdullah Al- Secretary-General recommended the establish- for Council members, considerable differ- Senussi, also referred by resolution 1970, was ment of a guard unit consisting of up to 235 ences arise when identifying causes for the being investigated by Libya, thus making it military personnel to protect UN facilities and current sources of instability in Libya and inadmissible before the ICC. (Al-Senussi’s personnel in Tripoli. The Council took note of their regional impact. Council members also counsel appealed the decision.) A decision this arrangement in a 27 November 2013 letter differ on the tone to use in Libya-related from the Pre-Trial Chamber on a request for [S/2013/705].) outcomes. (The particular order of sentenc- a “finding of non-compliance” for the non- Addressing the highly diversified range of es within a paragraph—with the idea that surrender of Qaddafi is now expected. Such arms trafficking to and from Libya—which the first sentence of every paragraph sets its a finding might result in the re-referral of the include state-sponsored traffic by air and tone—and the order of the paragraphs with- case to the Security Council to ensure com- traffic by terrorist and criminal entities by in the statement were thoroughly discussed pliance by Libya. land and sea to neighbouring countries— in the negotiation of the 16 December 2013 The final report of the PoE was circulated as stated in the PoE report is a key issue. presidential statement.) to Council members on 15 February. The Ensuring proper transfer of military materiel The UK is the penholder on Libya. report identifies the proliferation of weapons to the government through centralised over- to and from Libya as a major challenge for sight, more clarity regarding focal points for

20 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast March 2013 Yemen

Expected Council Action reports of fighting between government The 2014 Humanitarian Response Plan In March, the Council expects a briefing on forces and a local secessionist movement in developed by OCHA highlights how an Yemen by Jamal Benomar, the Special Advis- the southern governorate of al-Dhale’e. The estimated 58.3 percent of Yemen’s popula- er to the Secretary-General. This will be his Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian tion—or 14.7 million people—are in need first briefing after the adoption of resolution Affairs (OCHA) has described unconfirmed of humanitarian aid. The vulnerable popula- 2140 on 26 February, which expressed the reports of indiscriminate shelling in al- tion includes some 306,600 IDPs, 147,500 Council’s strong support for the next steps of Dhale’e, including of civilian infrastructure, migrants from the Horn of Africa and the political transition and established sanc- resulting in civilian deaths. The Humanitar- 228,900 returnees. The crisis is exacerbated tions against individuals or entities that the ian Country Team members, who estimate by the security situation, the difficulties of 2140 Sanctions Committee determines to 3,150 people have been displaced by the humanitarian access, insufficient funding, be engaging in or providing support for acts conflict, have not been granted access to al- lack of service delivery in areas of return, the that threaten the peace, security or stability Dhale’e due to security concerns. An armed increasing prices of basic items (90 percent of Yemen. assault, on 13 February on a prison in Sana’a of food is imported) and endemic poverty. The mandate of the Special Adviser on resulted in the freeing of at least 14 inmates OCHA issued a Consolidated Appeal for Yemen was renewed on 12 June 2013 without believed to be members of Al-Qaida in the 2014 of $592 million. an expiration date. Current sanctions expire Arabian Peninsula (AQAP). one year after the adoption of the resolution. In consultations on 28 January, Benomar Human Rights-Related Developments briefed Council members on the remark- Following the 29 January review of Yemen, the Human Rights Council’s working group of the Key Recent Developments able achievement of the NDC in agreeing on Universal Periodic Review adopted a report on 31 On 21 January, the members of the National the only negotiated transition in the context January (A/HRC/26/8). Some 166 recommenda- Dialogue Conference (NDC) finally agreed of the Arab Spring. Benomar also reported tions formulated during the interactive dialogue on a Document of the National Comprehensive on the systematic pattern of obstruction to received Yemen’s support while another 25 rec- Dialogue. This outcome document endorses the transition process, which could plunge ommendations will be examined by Yemen before June. the federal structure of the state, and provides the country into chaos if the threat is not for the creation of a constitution-drafting removed soon. On 26 February the Coun- Key Issues commission to build on the generally agreed cil adopted a resolution expressing its strong Helping ensure the stability of the Hadi principles by the nine working groups of the support for completing the next steps of the government in the transition process and NDC. On the southern issue, following a 23 transition, in line with the Implementation ensuring the solidifying of the results of the December 2013 agreement on the creation Mechanism, including the drafting of a new National Dialogue is the key issue for the of a federal state, a 22-member commission constitution, the adoption of a new electoral Council. appointed by President Abdo Rabbud Man- law, the holding of a referendum and general Preventing spoilers from further obstruct- sour Hadi decided on the federal structure elections and the transition of the structure ing the political process is a closely related of the state, comprising six regions, with two of the state from unitary to federal. The reso- issue. regions in the south and four in the north. lution established a sanctions regime, a sanc- Promoting the inclusivity of the constitu- The security situation in the country con- tions committee and a four-member panel tion-drafting process and preparing for the tinues to be precarious. A truce was reached of experts and included among the desig- general elections are key issues in the upcom- in early February between Salafist groups nation criteria undermining the successful ing period. and the Zaidi Shi’a Houthis in Dammaj and completion of the political transition, imped- Immediate issues for the Council include other parts of the Sa’ada, Arhab and Amran ing the implementation of the final report of the precarious security situation, the pres- governorates. Since October 2013, these the NDC or being responsible for human ence of AQAP and persistent violent clashes clashes left hundreds dead or injured and rights abuses in Yemen. The resolution stops among tribal groups. Funding and supply resulted in thousands of internally displaced short of listing anyone (even though former of weapons from regional actors are closely persons (IDPs), mainly non-local Salafists. President Ali Abdullah Saleh or former Vice- related issues. Ongoing unrest persists in the eastern Hadra- President Ali Salim Al-Beidh were named in The bleak humanitarian situation— mout governorate, where armed tribesmen a 15 February 2013 presidential statement including widespread food insecurity, the have been fighting with the government since in the context of the Council’s expressing its challenges for IDPs, returnees and refugees December 2013. This unrest has had a nega- readiness to impose sanctions). The Council and limited humanitarian access—are ongo- tive impact on oil production, with crude oil also expressed its concern over reported seri- ing issues. exports declining by 23.8 percent in 2013 ous human rights abuses and violence against according to the Central Bank. civilians in both the northern and southern Options Since December 2013, there have been governorates, including al-Dhale’e. Options for the Council include:

UN DOCUMENTS ON YEMEN Security Council Resolutions S/RES/2140 (25 February 2014) expressed the Council’s strong support for the next steps of the political transition and established sanctions against those threatening the peace, security or stability of Yemen. S/RES/2051 (12 June 2012) focused on the second phase of the transition and expressed readiness to consider further measures, including under Article 41. Security Council Presidential Statement S/PRST/2013/3 (15 February 2013) welcomed the announcement of the launch of the NDC. Security Council Press Statements SC/11202 (5 December 2013) condemned a terrorist attack in Sana’a. SC/11195 (27 November 2013) reiterated Council members’ concern over continuing reports of interference by those intent on disrupting, delaying or derailing the transition process and undermining the government. Security Council Meeting Record S/PV.7037 (27 September 2013) was a public briefing by Benomar, the Secretary-General of the Gulf Cooperation Council and the Foreign Minister of Yemen.

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast March 2013 securitycouncilreport.org 21 Yemen (con’t)

• receiving a briefing and taking no action; is to move towards targeting former President cost-effective UN engagement. or Saleh and former Vice-President Al-Beidh However, during the negotiation on the • issuing a statement urging the govern- with sanctions. resolution, Council members could not agree ment to form the commission formally on the imposition of sanctions specifically on established in 2012 to address human Council Dynamics Saleh and Al-Beidh. Leaving this matter to rights violations related to the events of Council members have shown a high degree the Sanctions Committee was the accept- 2011 and, as per the NDC final docu- of convergence regarding the situation in ed compromise. Although Hadi had made ment, a Transitional Justice Commission Yemen. They are aware of the importance of known his preference for the imposition of to address past abuses, lessons learnt, the political transition in Yemen at a criti- sanctions, it seems other factions within the ensure the reparation to the victims and cal moment for other transition processes government were wary of the consequences helping to establish an all-inclusive his- in the region and highlight the close coop- such a move could have on the stability of torical narrative. eration with regional organisations, the con- the transition. In the Sanctions Committee, a key option structive discussions within the Council and The UK is the penholder on Yemen.

Lebanon

Expected Council Action Lebanese Armed Forces (LAF) and the IDF. In his inaugural message, Salam noted In November, Special Coordinator for Leb- Plumbly participated on behalf of the Sec- that he had attempted to form a balanced anon Derek Plumbly and Assistant Secre- retary-General. The purpose of the meeting government in which all parties participated, tary-General for Peacekeeping Operations was to establish the facts and circumstanc- but without any religious or sectarian quo- Edmond Mulet will brief Council members es surrounding the incident to fully restore tas. The cabinet is not expected to remain in consultations on the Secretary-General’s the cessation of hostilities. Later in the day, in office long, however, as President Michel report on the implementation of resolution the Council issued a press statement that Suleiman’s six-year term will end in May, at 1701, which called for a cessation of hostili- deplored the shooting and called for restraint which time a new head of state will be elected ties between Hezbollah and Israel in 2006. by all parties (SC/11217). and a new government will be formed. The mandate of the UN Interim Force On 29 December, two rockets were Spillover from Syria continues to have a in Lebanon (UNIFIL) expires on 31 August. fired from southern Lebanon in the area of destabilising effect on Lebanon. Approximate- El Khraibe into northern Israel. The IDF ly 900,000 refugees are registered in Lebanon, Key Recent Developments responded by firing 32 artillery rounds at the increasing the country’s population by roughly The report is likely to highlight continuing area from which the rockets originated. That 25 percent. Unofficial estimates put the figure cross-border incidents in which violations day, UNIFIL held another tripartite meeting closer to 1.5 million. The UN High Commis- of the Blue Line—the UN demarcated line with the parties to de-escalate tensions. sioner for Refugees says that 50,000 refugees between Israel and Lebanon—were made Regarding the political situation in Leba- arrived in Lebanon in January alone. by both sides, including violations of Leba- non, on 15 February Prime Minister Tam- The Syrian crisis also continues to exac- nese airspace by Israeli drones and other air- mam Salam announced that a government erbate deadly sectarianism in Lebanon. craft. Continuing hostilities and the harass- had been formed, ending a 10-month politi- Since late December 2013, the Council has ment of UNIFIL personnel is also likely to cal deadlock that crippled the country’s ability issued six press statements relating to ter- be reported. to confront growing security and humanitar- rorist attacks in Lebanon. The most deadly One grave violation occurred in the ian challenges. The political deadlock began of these attacks came on 19 February, when vicinity of the Blue Line at Naqoura on 15 last April, when the rivalry between the Shi’a twin attacks killed at least eight people in December 2013 when a Lebanese soldier Hezbollah-dominated March 8 coalition and the vicinity of the Iranian cultural centre fired on and killed an Israel Defense Forc- the Sunni-led March 14 alliance—which has in Beirut. The Lebanese Al-Qaida-linked es (IDF) soldier who was on the Israeli side. been exacerbated by their support for oppos- group Abdullah Azzam Brigades claimed The IDF retaliated by shooting, non-fatally, ing sides in the Syrian conflict—prevented responsibility. Other statements were issued two Lebanese soldiers whom they believed Salam from forming a government. Agree- in response to two deadly attacks in the were involved in the attack. The following ment was finally reached once the March 14 Shi’a majority town of Hermel and three day, UNIFIL convened an extraordinary tri- alliance withdrew its choice for interior min- others in Beirut, including a 27 December partite meeting with senior officers from the ister, whom Hezbollah had opposed. car bombing that targeted former Minister

UN DOCUMENTS ON LEBANON Security Council Resolution S/RES/2115 (29 August 2013) renewed the mandate of UNIFIL for an additional year. Secretary-General’s Report S/2013/650 (13 November 2013) was on the implementation of resolution 1701. Security Council Press Statements SC/11287 (19 February 2014) condemned a terrorist attack in Beirut. SC/11283 (15 February 2014) welcomed the formation of a new government in Lebanon. SC/11269 (1 February 2014) condemned a terrorist attack in Hermel. SC/11256 (21 January 2014) condemned a terrorist attack in southern Beirut. SC/11250 (16 January 2014) welcomed the opening of the trial at the Special Tribunal for Lebanon. SC/11249 (16 January 2014) condemned a terrorist attack in Hermel. SC/11239 (2 January 2014) condemned a terrorist attack in South Beirut. SC/11232 (27 December 2013) condemned the terrorist attack that killed former Minister Chatah. SC/11217 (16 December 2013) deplored the shooting of an IDF soldier in the vicinity of the Blue Line.

22 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast March 2013 Lebanon (con’t)

Mohammad Chatah—a fierce critic of Syr- for Lebanon opened the trial for the 2005 Options ian President Bashar al-Assad—killing him assassination of former Sunni Prime Min- The most likely option for the Council in and at least four others (SC/11232). Each ister Rafiq Hariri in a terrorist attack that March is to take no action. However, Council statement stressed the importance for all par- also killed 21 others. In a press statement members could issue a statement stressing ties to respect Lebanon’s policy of disassocia- issued that day, the Council welcomed the their support for the LAF as a pillar of sta- tion and appealed to the Lebanese people to opening of the trial and stressed the vital bility and reiterating the importance for all refrain from any involvement in the Syrian importance of combating impunity for the parties to respect Lebanon’s policy of disas- crisis, consistent with their commitment in long-term stability and security of Lebanon sociation from the Syrian conflict. the Baabda Declaration. (SC/11250). All five of the defendants, said On 24 February, Israeli warplanes launched to be members of Hezbollah, are being tried Council Dynamics two raids targeting a convoy carrying surface- in absentia. There is consensus in the Council that UNI- to-surface missiles into Lebanon in the east- President Suleiman on 29 December FIL contributes to stability between Israel ern Bekaa valley, on the Lebanon-Syria border. announced that Saudi Arabia had made a and Lebanon, becoming even more crucial in The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights landmark $3 billion military grant to Leba- the context of the Syrian crisis. The Council said the target was a Hezbollah “missile base”, non to purchase arms from France. Special is united on the importance of preserving but it was not immediately apparent whether Coordinator Plumbly visited Riyadh on 6 Jan- Lebanon’s sovereignty, national unity, territo- the strike hit inside Lebanese or Syrian ter- uary and welcomed the pledge of assistance. rial integrity and political independence and ritory. In early January, media reports indi- However, the military aid from the Sunni remains supportive of the country’s policy of cated that Hezbollah has been moving long- kingdom, seen as an attempt to counter the disassociation from the Syrian crisis. range missiles from storage bases in Syria to influence that Iran wields in Lebanon through Some Council members have also high- positions in Lebanon, from which they could Hezbollah, could further ignite tensions. lighted the importance they attach to Leb- strike deep into Israel. The reports claimed anon’s stability by providing humanitarian that as many as 12 Russian-made anti-ship Key Issues assistance and bilateral financial support, cruise missile systems may be in Hezbollah’s The key issue is that the conflict in Syria con- including for the LAF, through the Interna- possession inside Syria. According to US tinues to negatively impact Lebanon. tional Support Group for Lebanon. officials, Israel has struck Syria at least three Ongoing issues include continued viola- France is the penholder on Lebanon in times in the past year to prevent weapons from tions of resolution 1701, such as the Israeli the Council. reaching Hezbollah inside Lebanon. occupation of areas north of the Blue Line On 16 January, the Special Tribunal and overflights in Lebanese airspace.

UNDOF (Golan Heights)

Expected Council Action separation and in the area of limitation, forc- a neutral policy vis-à-vis the Syrian crisis except In March, the Department of Peacekeep- ing UNDOF personnel to take shelter. Mor- to block any transfer of strategic weapons via ing Operations (DPKO) is expected to brief tar rounds have landed near UNDOF posi- Syria to Hezbollah in Lebanon. Council members in consultations on the tions on several occasions since December. In the last few months, UNDOF observed Secretary-General’s upcoming report on the UNDOF’s freedom of movement has been armed members of the Syrian opposition trans- UN Disengagement Observer Force (UND- regularly restricted by the presence of road- ferring wounded across the Israeli technical fence OF). No outcome is anticipated. blocks, and its convoys have been repeatedly with media reports indicating that wounded have UNDOF was established in 1974 to monitor shot at by the armed opposition and Syrian forces been treated in a hospital near the ceasefire line. the ceasefire between Israel and Syria. Its man- (10 December, 22 January and 2 and 7 February). The mission also reported that an Israeli military date expires on 30 June. On 2 December, Israel informed the Security vehicle briefly crossed the ceasefire line twice Council that Syria fired at an Israeli military out- on 10 December and two Israeli military aircraft Key Recent Developments post (S/2013/711). Israel returned fire. Also that flew over the area of separation on 2 January. The spillover from the conflict in Syria has day, a Syrian mortar landed in Majdal Shams, in On 19 December and 1 January, UNDOF continued to affect the security situation in the Israeli-occupied Golan, causing no casualties observed armed members of the opposition the Golan. Clashes between Syrian govern- or damages. Two rockets landed in the Israeli- handling mines. The mission continued to find ment forces and armed opposition groups and occupied Golan on 18 February. Since the begin- improvised explosive devices (IEDs) in its area shelling have been ongoing inside the area of ning of the Syrian conflict, Israel has maintained of operations. Specialised counter-IED teams

UN DOCUMENTS ON UNDOF Security Council Resolution S/RES/2131 (18 December 2013) was the most recent renewal of UNDOF. Secretary-General’s Report S/2013/716 (3 December 2013) was on UNDOF covering the period from 12 September to 3 December 2013. Security Council Letter S/2013/711 (2 December 2013) was from Israel on the 2 December incident. OTHER RELEVANT FACTS UNDOF Force Commander Major General Iqbal Singh Singha (India) Size of Mission 1,239 troops (as of 31 December 2013) Troop Contributors Fiji, India, Ireland, Nepal, Netherlands and the Philippines Approved budget (1 July 2013 - 30 June 2014): $60,654,500 (A/C.5/68/21)

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast March 2013 securitycouncilreport.org 23 UNDOF (Golan Heights) (con’t) from Ireland are expected to arrive in March. opposition in the UNDOF area of operation and additional action. One other option would be After decades of dealing with UNDOF twice underscored that the theft or destruction of UN for the Council to adopt a statement reiterating a year in an essentially routine fashion, by the weapons, ammunition, vehicles or other assets the need for all parties to exercise restraint or second year of the Syrian crisis, the spillover were unacceptable. expressing concern for the safety and security of effects were prominently felt in UNDOF’s area DPKO’s September 2013 request for authori- UNDOF personnel, or both. of operations. In response, the Council has modi- sation to use enhanced defensive equipment has fied its handling of UNDOF by deploying addi- largely been approved by Israel and Syria. How- Council Dynamics tional peacekeepers and equipment as allowed ever, its requests regarding advanced defensive The Council agrees that UNDOF contrib- by the 1974 Separation of Forces Agreement arms, such as man-portable air-defence systems, utes to stability in the region in the absence between Israel and Syria. It also requested quar- and communication systems, including jammers of a peace agreement between Israel and Syr- terly reporting whereas, until resolution 2084 have not been approved by the parties. Both Isra- ia. From the beginning of 2013 the Council was adopted on 19 December 2012, reports el and Syria fear such equipment might fall into has received quarterly reporting on UND- were semi-annual. Resolution 2108 of 27 June the hands of armed rebel groups. OF, whereas previously it had only been 2013 stressed the need to enhance the safety and semi-annual. The mission’s importance is security of UNDOF personnel. The budget for Key Issues particularly high now in order to avoid fur- the period of 1 July 2013 to 30 June 2014 was The spillover of the Syrian crisis into UND- ther potential negative security implications increased by $12.6 million in December 2013 (A/ OF’s area of operations will continue to be for the region. In this regard, most Council RES/68/260). As of 31 December 2013, UND- of primary concern to the Council. Syrian members are keen to demonstrate to troop- OF’s strength was 1,239 troops. military forces are prohibited from entering contributing countries their commitment to On 18 December 2013, the Council adopt- the area of separation, but they have nonethe- UNDOF’s ability to operate effectively and ed resolution 2131, renewing UNDOF for six less done so in response to the rebel presence. to the safety of its personnel. months after considering the Secretary-General’s A continuing key issue will be the safety and Though in recent years the US has been latest report on the observer mission during 16 security of UN personnel given the proximity the penholder on the Golan Heights, the last December consultations (S/2013/716). The reso- of UNDOF positions to the areas where there four resolutions renewing UNDOF were lution drew attention to the deteriorating situ- have been clashes between Syrian forces and drafted jointly by the US and Russia, demon- ation on the ground as a result of the spillover the armed rebels. strating consensus on an issue that is affected of the Syrian conflict and strongly condemned by the highly divisive conflict in Syria. Coun- several incidents threatening the safety and Options cil members prefer to keep the Syrian conflict security of UNDOF personnel. It also noted the The most likely option is for the Council to and the Golan Heights as discrete issues. increased use of IEDs by elements of the Syrian receive the report and briefing and take no

Iraq

Expected Council Action a surge in fighting between pro- and anti-gov- Refugees estimating that 300,000 Iraqis have In March, Special Representative of the Sec- ernment forces that erupted late in Decem- been displaced so far by fighting in Anbar. retary-General Nickolay Mladenov will brief ber 2013 when security forces dismantled In response, the Council on 10 January the Council on the report on the UN Assis- a Sunni protest camp near Ramadi in the adopted a presidential statement, drafted tance Mission for Iraq (UNAMI). Council western province of Anbar, which borders by the US in consultation with Iraq, which members are also due to receive a report Syria. Following the incident, Al-Qaida-affil- deplored in the strongest terms recent events from UNAMI on Iraq’s compliance with iated armed groups, which have proliferated in Ramadi and Fallujah and condemned the resolution 1284 regarding the repatriation or throughout the area and in neighbouring attacks by Al-Qaida affiliate the Islamic State return of Kuwaiti nationals or their remains Syria, seized parts of Ramadi and all of Fal- in Iraq and the Levant (ISIS) which have and the return of Kuwaiti property. lujah. The government has since launched attempted to destabilise the country and the The UNAMI mandate expires on 31 July military operations in the region and co-opt- region (S/PRST/2014/1). The Council also 2014. ed local Sunni tribal leaders, providing them urged the people of Iraq to continue to expand with weapons and funding, to assist forces their cooperation against violence and terror. Key Recent Developments in expelling the militants. The humanitar- Elsewhere in Iraq, near-daily fatal attacks, During the reporting period, an already dire ian consequences of the fighting have been many of them coordinated and sectarian in security situation in Iraq was exacerbated by grave, with the UN High Commissioner on nature, against civilians, law enforcement and

UN Documents on Iraq Security Council Resolution S/RES/2110 (24 July 2013) extended the mandate of UNAMI until 31 July 2014. Presidential Statement S/PRST/2014/1 (10 January 2014) supported government efforts to address the security situation and condemned attacks perpetrated by Al-Qaida affiliate ISIS.Secretary-General’s Reports S/2013/661 (13 November 2013) was on UNAMI. S/2013/654 (11 November 2013) was on Iraq/Kuwait missing persons and property. Security Council Press Statement SC/11186 (25 November 2013) condemned the recent spate of terrorist attacks in Iraq.

24 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast March 2013 Iraq (con’t)

government officials continue. On 2 Febru- US arms deliveries. the MEK dissidents) who were allegedly kid- ary, UNAMI issued casualty figures for Janu- With both the US and Iran encourag- napped after an attack on the camp on 1 Septem- ary, according to which a total of 733 people, ing a reconciliation between Baghdad and ber 2013 that left 52 dead. including 618 civilians, were killed in acts of the Kurdistan Regional Government ahead terrorism and violence. These numbers did of the April elections, the two sides held a Key Issues not include victims of the ongoing conflict round of negotiations on oil exports and The key issue for the Council is how UNAMI in Anbar. revenue sharing on 16 February. The talks can continue to contribute to the stability of Preparations for the 30 April parliamen- have delayed the adoption of the 2014 bud- Iraq and play a role in facilitating an end to tary elections are largely on track. On 26 get. Kurdistan has threatened to sell oil and the political stalemate, the humanitarian cri- August 2013, the courts struck down a law natural gas to Turkey without the approval sis and sectarian tension. limiting the prime minister to two terms in of the central government, raising fears that A related issue is how the Council can office, allowing Prime Minister Nouri al- attaining economic independence would lead support an inclusive political process through Maliki to run for a third consecutive term. to a broader declaration of independence. the holding of free and fair elections in April. The Speaker of Parliament, Usama al-Nujaifi With regard to the Iraq-Kuwait file, the A further issue will be whether and how to warned during a 22 January visit to Wash- Geneva-based UN Compensation Commis- address the destabilising impact of the Syrian ington, D.C. that elections may be used to sion, which settles the damage claims of those conflict on Iraq—in particular the prolifera- further marginalise Sunnis and that attempts who suffered losses due to the 1990 invasion tion of extremist armed groups operating in to discourage voting or cause provocation in of Kuwait, paid $1.03 billion to Kuwait on 23 both countries. Sunni areas would weaken their representa- January, bringing the total amount disbursed The issue of Camp Hurriyah and the tion in parliament. Many fear that the elec- to $44.5 billion. future disposition of the Iranian exiles housed tions may further inflame sectarian tensions. On 26 December 2013, three residents there is also of ongoing concern to Council Influential Shi’a cleric Moktada al-Sadr of Camp Hurriyah were killed and 70 were members. announced his withdrawal from politics on wounded in the fourth rocket attack to hit the 15 February. In a speech delivered later that camp in 2013. The camp houses members of Options week, al-Sadr urged his followers in parlia- the Iranian dissident group Mujahedin-e-Khalq One option is for the Council is to receive the ment to continue to serve and encouraged (MEK). The group has accused the govern- briefing and take no action. However, given all Iraqis to participate in elections so that ment of being behind the attack. However, the the situation on the ground, it is possible that they would be represented fairly. He criti- attack was claimed by the militant group Jaysh the Council will issue a statement addressing cised the government, saying it was behaving al-Mukhtar, whose stated mission is to pro- the security and humanitarian concerns. like a dictatorship and was using the army tect Iraq’s Shi’a population and aid the gov- As the March briefing will be the last regu- against the people. ernment in fighting Sunni extremist groups. lar briefing before the April elections, another Reports surfaced on 24 February that Iraq Its leader, Wathiq al-Battat, was arrested at a option is for the Council to issue a statement had signed a deal to acquire $195 million Baghdad checkpoint on 2 January. urging all stakeholders to work to ensure that worth of arms from Iran. The deal, which On 5 January, Secretary-General Ban Ki- elections are conducted peacefully and in a would be in contravention of a UN embargo moon announced the appointment of Jane free and fair manner. on weapons sales by Tehran, was reportedly Holl Lute as his Special Advisor for Reloca- signed in late November—just weeks after tion of Camp Hurriyah Residents Outside Council and Wider Dynamics Maliki returned from lobbying Washington of Iraq. Council members have in the past found that for extra weapons to strengthen the efficacy publicly addressing the growing violence in of the security apparatus in its fight against Human Rights-Related Developments Iraq has been difficult, primarily because of Al-Qaida-linked extremists. The Iraqi gov- Iraq has continued wide use of the death penalty, US sensitivities related to its 2003 invasion. reportedly hanging 26 people accused of terror- ernment made contradictory statements As such, beyond the routine annual renewals ism on 22 January. UN human rights chief Navi concerning the deal. The defense ministry— Pillay has deplored what she called the “conveyor of UNAMI, the Council had remained large- facing pressure from the US—denied that a belt of executions by the government of Iraq”. ly silent on Iraq. However, in recent months contract had been signed, however, a senior Human Rights Watch (HRW) said in its 2013 the Council has responded to the situation by government lawmaker said Baghdad had annual report that Iraq hanged at least 151 people adopting both a presidential and press state- last year. HRW also published a report on 6 Feb- bought “some light weapons and ammuni- ment. This could signal that, given the politi- ruary that claimed that Iraq is illegally detaining tion” from Tehran. On 27 January the Penta- thousands of women—the vast majority of whom cal, humanitarian and regional implications gon had notified US Congress that it intends are Sunnis—and subjecting many to torture and of the proliferation of extremist groups and to sell 24 Apache helicopters and 500 Hell- ill treatment, including sexual abuse. increased violence, Council members may be fire missiles to Iraq in a deal worth upwards The UN Working Group on Enforced or Invol- looking to increase engagement on Iraq. untary Disappearances on 9 December 2013 of $6 billion. Several Iraqi lawmakers had The US is the penholder on Iraq issues called on Iraq to clarify the whereabouts of seven reportedly claimed that Maliki made the deal residents of Camp Ashraf (which previously held in general, and the UK is the penholder on with Tehran out of frustration with delays in Iraq-Kuwait issues.

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast March 2013 securitycouncilreport.org 25 Iran

Expected Council Action consultations and report back to the Com- On 13 February, the International Energy In March, the chair of the 1737 Iran Sanc- mittee but with the understanding that mem- Agency reported that sales of Iranian crude tions Committee, Ambassador Gary Quin- bers reserved their positions with regard to oil rose by 100,000 barrels a day in January, lan (Australia), is due to present his quar- the final outcome. to 1.32 million. It was seen as an early indi- terly briefing on the Committee’s work to On 18 February, Iran and the P5+1 began cation of the initial impact of the measures the Council. their first round of talks aimed at reaching a agreed to by the US as part of the JPA to sus- long-term agreement on Iran’s nuclear pro- pend some oil-related restrictions on import- Key Recent Developments gramme involving the lifting of all nuclear-relat- ers of Iranian oil. China accounted for most Quinlan last briefed the Council on 12 ed sanctions. The two sides had announced on of the additional sales. December 2013 (S/PV.7082). He welcomed 12 January that the six-month JPA would take the 24 November interim agreement (Joint effect on 20 January, meaning that 20 July will Human Rights-Related Developments Plan of Action, [JPA]), which is the first step be the first deadline for concluding the agree- On 18 December, the General Assembly adopted a resolution on human rights in Iran express- towards a comprehensive, long-term agree- ment. The JPA can be extended by mutual ing deep concern at serious recurring human ment between Iran and the P5+1 (Germany consent for six months if agreement has not rights violations and urging Iran to cooperate is the additional member of the negotiating been reached by then. (Although the JPA was with special procedures’ mandate holders (A/ group). But he stressed that all Council sanc- announced on 24 November, technical details RES/68/184). tions remained in effect and that member had to be finalised before implementation On 22 January, the Special Rapporteur on the situation of human rights in Iran, Ahmed Sha- states should continue to implement them. could start. Please refer to our December 2013 heed and the Special Rapporteur on extrajudicial, He encouraged Iran to engage with the Com- Monthly Forecast for further details.) summary or arbitrary executions, Christof Heyns, mittee and respond to the letters request- On 20 February the two sides announced issued a statement urging Iran to heed the calls ing clarification of incidents investigated that they had agreed on a road map for the for a moratorium on executions, especially in cas- by the Panel of Experts (PoE) assisting the negotiations. The agreed schedule included es relating to political activists and alleged drug- offences. The statement—which was endorsed Committee. an experts’ level meeting in early March and by the Special Rapporteur on torture and other The Sanctions Committee held an infor- for the full delegations to meet again on 17 cruel, inhuman or degrading treatment or punish- mal meeting on 20 January and also had March followed by monthly sessions. It was ment, Juan Méndez— expressed alarm at sharp informal discussions (“informal informals”) also envisaged that Catherine Ashton, the increase in hangings in Iran. At least 40 persons on 29 January focusing on the six recommen- EU’s High Representative for Foreign Affairs were reportedly hanged in the first two weeks dations directed at the Council in the PoE’s 3 and Security Policy and chief negotiator for of January and some 625 executions were car- ried out in 2013, without due process rights and June 2013 report (S/2013/331). the P5+1 would travel to Iran ahead of the 17 for crimes that do not meet the threshold of the Recent discussions focused in particular March meeting. Few details emerged as for “most serious crimes” as required by international on recommendations two and four as listed any more substantive points discussed. law. in the PoE’s report. Recommendation two There seemed to be good progress under During the 25th session in March, the Human called for the Committee to encourage states the 11 November 2013 cooperation frame- Rights Council will consider the report of the Secretary-General on the human rights situation “to be alert to the attempted procurement work agreed between Iran and the IAEA to in Iran and Shaheed’s report. of items for prohibited purposes, including resolve outstanding issues. In a 20 Febru- items that fall below control thresholds, and ary report to the Council (S/2014/116), the to issues relating to end use and end users” IAEA Director General said that Iran had Key Issues possibly through the issuance of an Imple- implemented the initial six practical steps The key issue for the Council is whether mentation Assistance Notice. However, no agreed in November and that it had now developments in the ongoing talks with Iran conclusion was reached on this. agreed to implement seven additional mea- should have any impact on the work of the Recommendation four said the Commit- sures by 15 May, including managed access Sanctions Committee and lead to a more tee should provide guidance to states about to the Saghand mine in Yazd and the Ardakan cautious approach so as not to interfere with ambiguities in the language of the resolu- concentration plant as well as Iran’s provid- negotiations or whether, as some argue, it is tions concerning the phrases “entities act- ing information on various other aspects of essential to keep up the pressure on Iran— ing on their behalf or at their direction” and its nuclear programme. (There was still no and even impose additional measures—for “entities owned or controlled by them”. The mention of Parchin, a military site that Iran is negotiations to succeed. chair proposed that instead of the Commit- believed to have used for nuclear activities and tee trying to develop such guidance only for to which the IAEA has unsuccessfully sought Options its own purposes, it should reach out to oth- access in the past.) Previously, in a 17 Janu- One option for the Council is to continue its er committees dealing with similar issues to ary report, the Director General had informed work on sanctions enforcement through the try to agree on a common approach. It was the Council of the IAEA’s role with regard to Sanctions Committee independently of what decided that the chair should initiate such monitoring and verification of the JPA. is happening on the political track until a

UN DOCUMENTS ON IRAN Security Council Resolutions S/RES/2105 (5 June 2013) renewed the PoE’s mandate until 9 July 2014. S/RES/1737 (23 December 2006) imposed the first round of sanctions on Iran and established the Sanctions Committee. Security Council Meeting Record S/PV.7082 (12 December 2013) was the most recent briefing by the chair of the Sanctions Committee. Sanctions Committee Document S/2013/331 (3 June 2013) was the latest report from the PoE. Other S/2014/116 (20 February 2014) was the latest IAEA report to the Council.

26 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast March 2013 Iran (con’t) long-term agreement has been reached. all relevant Council resolutions. cautious approach to avoid any potential neg- Another option is to significantly slow ative impact on the negotiations. down the work in the Committee as long as Council Dynamics Because of these differences, Council there is continued positive momentum in the Council members continue to have differ- members do not expect much action in the negotiations with Iran. ing perspectives on the implications for the Committee in the foreseeable future. Still, it A further option would be to adopt a Sanctions Committee of the ongoing talks seems the chair has been trying to advance the statement or a resolution welcoming the JPA between Iran and the P5+1. The P3 and like- discussions on the recommendations in the and the launch of negotiations on a long- minded countries seem to think that until PoE’s 5 June 2013 report to be able to show term agreement with Iran, reiterating the further notice the Committee should carry some results before the next report comes out Council’s demands and expressing its will- on its work on sanctions implementation. in May although they are likely to be minimal. ingness to suspend and eventually terminate China and Russia on the other hand argue The US is the penholder in the Council all measures against Iran if it complies with that the Committee needs to take a more on Iran.

DPRK

Expected Council Action On 20 February, the chair of the Commit- Meanwhile, the DPRK continued to pro- In March, the Council is expected to adopt a tee, Ambassador Sylvie Lucas (Luxembourg), test the annual joint ROK-US military exer- resolution renewing for 13 months the man- briefed Council members in consultations on cises underway in February. It sent a letter to date of the Panel of Experts (PoE) assisting its work. The Committee then met on 24 Feb- the Council on 7 February condemning the the 1718 Democratic People’s Republic of ruary for an initial exchange of views on the exercises and threatening to call off the family Korea (DPRK) Sanctions Committee. PoE’s report and also discussed possible mea- reunions unless the exercises were cancelled Also in March, the Committee is due to sures in response to the Chong Chon Gang case. (S/2014/84). It complained in particular that update the lists of banned items as required On 7 February, the Committee adopted the ROK had allowed US nuclear-capable by resolution 2094, which directs it to review the IAN requested by paragraph 22 of resolu- B-52 bombers to fly off the west coast of and update the lists of sanctioned items by 7 tion 2094, the so-called “catch-all” provision. the Korean peninsula. Despite these threats, March 2014 and on an annual basis thereaf- (The provision calls on states to prevent the however, the DPRK agreed to allow the fam- ter. (If the Committee fails to update the lists supply, sale or transfer of any item that might ily reunions to go ahead as planned. by then, the Council will have to take action contribute to activities prohibited under rel- In a further sign of the easing of tensions within an additional 30 days.) evant Council resolutions and directed the between the two countries, the ROK on 21 Committee to issue an IAN regarding its February was reported to have approved a Key Recent Developments proper implementation.) It was posted on shipment of medicine and powdered milk for The PoE’s final report under resolution 2094 the Committee’s website on 13 February. the DPRK and promised more humanitarian was circulated to Council members on 10 Relations between the Republic of Korea aid. It also offered to assist the DPRK with an February. The report confirms that the DPRK (ROK) and the DPRK seemed to improve. outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease in pigs. is continuing to develop its nuclear and bal- On 5 February the two countries agreed to On 14 February, US Secretary of State listic missile programmes and describes in hold family reunions at the Diamond Moun- John Kerry held meetings in Beijing with top detail the types of techniques used to evade tain resort inside the DPRK from 20 to 25 Chinese officials and discussed, among other sanctions and recent violations, including the February. On 12 February, the countries things, the situation on the Korean peninsula. Chong Chon Gang case. (Chong Chon Gang held their first high-level meeting in seven Following the meetings, Kerry said that China was the DPRK-flagged ship detained by Pan- years, apparently at the suggestion of Pyong- “could not have more forcefully reiterated its ama on 15 July 2013 on its way from Cuba yang. The meeting took place in the Panmun- commitment” to the goal of denuclearising the with weapons and military equipment hidden jom truce village on the border between the DPRK. He also stated that China had indi- in a cargo of sugar. The PoE submitted an two countries and covered a range of issues, cated its willingness to take additional steps to incident report on 23 December concluding including the family reunion programme. push the DPRK to halt its nuclear programme. that the case constituted a sanctions viola- There was speculation that the DPRK was tion.) Recommendations focus on measures trying to demonstrate progress in its relations Human Rights-Related Developments to improve sanctions implementation, such with the ROK in order to please China and On 17 February, Michael Kirby, the chair of the international commission of inquiry on human as the issuance of Implementation Assistance secure an invitation to Beijing for its leader rights in the DPRK, and Marzuki Darusman, the Notices (IANs) by the Sanctions Committee. Kim Jong-un to strengthen his authority. Special Rapporteur on the situation of human

UN DOCUMENTS ON THE DPRK Security Council Resolution S/RES/2094 (7 March 2013) tightened sanctions against the DPRK and extended the mandate of the PoE until 7 April 2014. Sanctions Committee Document S/2013/337 (7 June 2013) was the PoE report to the Sanctions Committee under resolution 2094. Other A/HRC/25/63 (7 February 2014) was the report from the international commission of inquiry. S/2014/84 (7 February 2014) was a letter to the Council from the DPRK. Implementation Assistance Notice No. 4 (7 February 2014) was on the proper implementation of paragraph 22 of resolution 2094.

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast March 2013 securitycouncilreport.org 27 DPRK (con’t)

rights in the DPRK and also a member of the com- it will be formally brought to the Council’s procedures that the Secretariat has used in mission, held a press conference in Geneva for attention. other sanctions regimes will also apply in the the launch of the commission’s report released An ongoing key issue is the DPRK’s case of the DPRK. that same day (A/HRC/25/63 and A/HRC/25/ CRP.1). The commission found that crimes against continued flouting of all relevant Council With regard to the work of the interna- humanity had been committed and continue to resolutions. tional commission of inquiry, although not take place. These crimes, which arise from poli- At the Sanctions Committee level, a key directly related to the work of the Sanctions cies established at the highest level, entail exter- issue in March is whether to take up any of Committee, most Council members referred mination, murder, enslavement, torture, imprison- the PoE’s latest recommendations. to the commission’s findings at the 20 Febru- ment, rape, forced abortions, persecution, the forcible transfer of populations, enforced disap- ary informal consultations. They emphasised pearances and the inhumane act of knowingly Options that the DPRK’s human rights violations rep- causing prolonged starvation. The main option for the Council is to adopt resent yet another example of Pyongyang’s In a letter sent on 20 January to Kim Jong-un, a resolution extending the PoE’s mandate complete disregard for international law and the commission drew attention to the principle of for another 13 months. It could also stress indicated that the situation should be dealt command and superior responsibility under inter- national criminal law. The commission informed the importance of taking into consideration with by the Council. China on the other hand, Kim that officials of several governmental agen- the need for broad geographic representation who has publicly criticised the commission’s cies had been committing crimes against human- when selecting the experts. report, stressed the need for dialogue. No ity and added that it was “open to inference that Another option would be to organise an further discussions are expected in New York, the officials [were] in some instances acting under Arria formula meeting with members of the however, until the Human Rights Council [his] personal control.” international commission of inquiry. has considered the commission’s findings. The commission urged the UN Secretariat and agencies to adopt a system-wide strategy under A further option would be to refer the situ- Discussions on how to respond to the the recently launched “Rights up Front” approach, ation in the DPRK to the ICC. Chong Chon Gang case have continued to including the possibility of the Secretary-General Options for the Committee include: focus on the three measures proposed earlier bringing the situation to the attention of the Secu- • implementing the PoE’s recommendations; by the US and supported by most Council rity Council. The commission recommended that • making additional designations; members: issuing an IAN, designating those the Security Council refer the situation in the DPRK to the International Criminal Court (ICC) • updating the lists of banned items as found to be involved in the sanctions viola- and impose targeted individual sanctions against required by resolution 2094; tions and publicly releasing the PoE’s inci- those most responsible but stressed that it did • releasing publicly the Chong Chon Gang dent report. During the 24 February com- not support sanctions that would target the popu- incident report; and mittee meeting, the US presented in more lation or the economy as a whole. • expediting the issuance of additional detail the main elements of the proposed The commission will present its findings to the Human Rights Council on 17 March, during IANs, including those that have been IAN. Council members also discussed pos- its 25th session. proposed in response to recent sanctions sible designations. It appears that the PoE’s On 18 February, High Commissioner for violations. report, in a confidential annex, contains pro- Human Rights Navi Pillay called on the interna- posals for two designations related to the tional community “to use all the mechanisms at Council Dynamics Chong Chon Gang case and many members its disposal to ensure accountability, including referral to the ICC.” The PoE mandate renewal is expected to be expressed initial support for these proposals. a technical rollover and should therefore not As for publicly releasing the incident report, it be controversial. (The US circulated a draft seems that China and Russia remain opposed Key Issues resolution to Council members on 26 Febru- and it is therefore unlikely to happen. A key issue for the Council is the renewal of ary.) It appears that some discussions have The US is the penholder on the DPRK the PoE’s mandate. already taken place with regard to the selec- in the Council and Luxembourg chairs the A further issue is the report from the inter- tion of experts and there are expectations Sanctions Committee. national commission of inquiry and whether that the more transparent and merit-based

28 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast March 2013 Haiti

Expected Council Action Preparations for elections in Haiti took number of positive developments since the In March, the Council will consider the Secre- an important step forward on 27 Novem- 2010 earthquake: 89 percent of the displaced tary-General’s semi-annual report on the UN ber 2013 when the Chamber of Deputies population has left the camps; the incidence Stabilisation Mission in Haiti (MINUSTAH). approved a new electoral law in a special ses- of cholera has been reduced by over 50 per- The report is expected to include options for sion convened by President Michel Martelly. cent and severe food insecurity has been the future UN presence following the end of The new law replaced the controversial 2008 brought down from 1.5 million affected peo- MINUSTAH’s current consolidation plan in electoral law, thus resolving the dispute over ple in early 2013 to 600,000 in October 2013. 2016. A debate with a briefing by the Special the term of senators elected in 2009. Representative of the Secretary-General and The political climate seemed to improve Human Rights-Related Developments head of mission, Sandra Honoré, is expected. with the launch on 24 January of a new On 20 February the court of appeals in Haiti vot- ed in favour of opening new investigations into Ahead of the debate, the Council is national dialogue involving key political former President Jean-Claude Duvalier for crimes expected to convene a meeting with MINUS- stakeholders under the auspices of the Con- against humanity. The Office of the High Commis- TAH’s troop contributors to hear a briefing férence Episcopale d’Haïti. During the first sioner for Human Rights welcomed the decision by the outgoing force commander, Lieuten- round of talks, it seems a consensus was as “a landmark step for Haitian justice in combat- ant General Edson Leal Pujol (Brazil). reached to organise combined elections in ing impunity for past human rights violations”. During its 25th session in March, the Human MINUSTAH’s mandate expires on 15 2014 (as opposed to two separate elections) Rights Council will consider the report of the October. for the Chamber of Deputies and a second independent expert on human rights in Haiti, third of the Senate, in addition to the local, Gustavo Gallón (A/HRC/25/71). When Gallón last Key Recent Developments municipal and partial senatorial elections visited the country from 23 September to 1 Octo- On 10 October 2013, the Council, in resolu- already foreseen. Participants also discussed ber 2013, he put an emphasis on five aspects: the right to education; the situation of persons tion 2119, renewed MINUSTAH’s mandate possible changes to the transitional Electoral deprived of liberty; the strengthening of justice until 15 October 2014. It also authorised a Council (Collège transition du Conseil Electoral institutions; addressing human rights violations reduction in troop strength from 6,270 to Permanent), reshuffling the cabinet to include committed under Duvalier and former President 5,021 while maintaining the size of the police opposition leaders and the need for constitu- Jean-Bertrand Aristide; and the situation in IDP component at 2,601 as recommended by the tional amendments. A second round of talks camps. Secretary-General in his 19 August report was launched on 11 February. (S/2013/493). With regard to the long-over- During a visit to Washington, D.C., from Key Issues due elections in Haiti, the resolution urged 4 to 7 February, Martelly for the first time The organisation of elections remains a key political actors in Haiti to work together to met with US President Barack Obama. He issue. A related issue is whether the national hold the elections in accordance with the also met with US Secretary of State John dialogue will succeed in building consensus constitution “to ensure the continued func- Kerry and members of the US Congress. on the way forward. tioning of the national assembly and other The organisation of elections was among key Another key issue is the continued con- elected bodies”. (This referred to the con- issues discussed, which also included security, solidation of MINUSTAH and the future troversy surrounding the mandate of senators reconstruction and the economic situation. UN presence. Resolution 2119 took note of elected in 2009, which according to the con- From 19 to 26 February Martelly travelled paragraph 64 of the Secretary-General’s 19 stitution does not expire until 2015, whereas to France, Italy and Belgium for high-level August report, which stated that the option the 2008 electoral law could be interpreted to meetings and also visited the Vatican. of replacing the mission with a smaller, more mean their term ended in January.) Capacity building of the Haitian National focused assistance mission in 2016 would In an explanation of vote following the Police seemed to be progressing well. Its most be explored and that proposals on the way adoption, the UK said that MINUSTAH was recent class, whose graduation ceremony was forward would be included in the upcoming “the clearest example of a mismatch between held on 27 December 2013, was the largest March report. It seems the report is expected the needs on the ground and the tools the in its history with 1,058 graduates, including to present four options, ranging from con- Security Council uses to address them” and 111 women. tinuing the consolidation of the current oper- that it made little sense to have more than On 17 December, the Office for the Coor- ation to replacing MINUSTAH with a small 5,000 peacekeepers in a situation with no dination of Humanitarian Affairs launched UN office headed by a special envoy. recent military conflict. It argued that some of its 2014 action plan for Haiti, requesting the tasks performed by MINUSTAH were bet- $169 million in funding. Estimating that Options ter suited to other parts of the UN system, crit- 817,000 people will still require assistance One option is for Council members to listen icising in particular the continued use of quick- this year, the plan focuses in particular on to the Special Representative’s briefing and impact projects and asserted that there was aiding displaced families, alleviating food express their national positions but take no scope for a more accelerated drawdown of the insecurity, fighting cholera and strengthen- further action at this stage. mission, especially of engineering personnel. ing emergency preparation. It also notes a Another option would be to adopt a

UN Documents on Haiti Security Council Resolution S/RES/2119 (10 October 2013) renewed MINUSTAH’s mandate until 15 October 2014. Security Council Press Statement SC/10901 (28 January 2013) called for the holding of elections by the end of 2013. Secretary-General’s Report S/2013/493 (19 August 2013) was the latest MINUSTAH report. Security Council Meeting Records S/PV.7040 (10 October 2013) was the adoption of resolution 2119 with the UK’s explanation of vote. S/PV.7024 (28 August 2013) was the most recent Council debate on Haiti.

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast March 2013 securitycouncilreport.org 29 Haiti (con’t) presidential statement or press statement to Views differ on the way forward for the is possible, however, that the options will welcome recent political progress, express mission. While the UK believes the man- provide further arguments to those in favour support for the Special Representative, date should focus strictly on security and of an accelerated drawdown. Furthermore, encourage broad participation in the national favours an accelerated drawdown (it would recent demands for additional peacekeeping dialogue and urge political leaders to keep up have preferred, for example, that the mission resources in other situations such as South the momentum to resolve outstanding issues stop doing quick-impact projects altogether), Sudan and potentially in the Central African and expedite the organisation of elections. other members, such as Argentina and Chile, Republic may create additional pressure for argue that the balance between security and MINUSTAH to downsize. Council and Wider Dynamics development tasks must be maintained and While the US is the penholder on Haiti, Council members welcome recent progress that Haiti still needs a multidimensional the Group of Friends of Haiti plays an influ- in the preparations for elections and the peacekeeping mission. ential role. (Current members are Argentina, launch of a national dialogue, but there are With regard to the Secretary-General’s Brazil, Canada, Chile, Colombia, France, still concerns about the potential for further expected options for the future reconfigura- Guatemala, Peru, the US and Uruguay, delays. At press time, it seemed that a press tion of MINUSTAH it seems unlikely that which is the chair.) statement focusing on the political situation Council members will engage in a very sub- was being considered as a possible outcome. stantive discussion of these at this stage. It

Peacebuilding

Recent Developments in Country- Expected Council Action post-conflict recovery on 26 September Specific Configurations In March, the Council will be briefed on (PBC/7/OC/3) during a high-level meet- A first-of-its-kind assessment mission by the peacebuilding in the aftermath of conflict. In ing convened with UN Women. UN Wom- PBC to review its engagement with Sierra Leone a 20 December 2012 presidential statement, en, the Peacebuilding Support Office and was conducted from 18-22 November 2013 as the Council requested the Secretariat to pro- the UN Development Program (UNDP) requested in resolution 2097. The mission’s final report recommended a lighter PBC role in Sierra vide this oral briefing as an update on prog- concluded an indicative baseline study in Leone. ress in the UN’s peacebuilding efforts, includ- November 2013, measuring the amount of Patriota visited Guinea-Bissau from 20-24 ing women’s participation in peacebuilding, UN-managed peacebuilding funds allocated January to begin planning a strategy for PBC as well as a final report by December 2014 for empowering women and gender equal- reengagement with Guinea-Bissau after its activi- (S/PRST/2012/29). ity. The study looked at 334 UNDP projects ties there were suspended following the 12 April 2012 coup. Briefing the Council on 26 February, Deputy Secretary-General Jan Eliasson in six countries during 2012. It found that Patriota stated that the configuration envisions will brief the Council. Ambassador Anto- funding totalled only six percent, well below supporting Guinea-Bissau to complete a full nio de Aguiar Patriota (Brazil), the recently the 15 percent target that the Secretary- democratic cycle, coordinating security sector elected chair of the Peacebuilding Commis- General set in his Seven-Point Action Plan reform and promoting food security and rural sion (PBC), and possibly the head of UNDP, (S/2010/466). development. Ambassador Mohammed Loulichiki (Morocco) Helen Clark, will also address members. The Secretary-General’s latest report on was officially appointed chair of the Central Afri- No outcome is expected. civilian capacity in the aftermath of conflict can Republic (CAR) configuration by the PBC was published 6 January (S/2014/5). The ini- Organizational Committee on 29 January 2014. Key Recent Developments tiative was introduced in 2011 to improve The previous chair, Ambassador Jan Grauls (Bel- The Council debated the PBC’s sixth annu- UN capacity for institution-building in post- gium), resigned in June 2012. Ambassador Staffan Tillander (Sweden), al report on 25 April 2013 (S/2013/63). The conflict countries and to more rapidly deploy the Liberia configuration chair, visited Liberia following day it held an interactive dialogue civilian experts for peacebuilding. The report from 2-7 February and met with President Ellen with the chairs of the PBC’s six country noted that the UN was abandoning its auto- Sirleaf Johnson and other government officials configurations. Earlier, at the behest of Pak- mated matching system to identify interna- and stakeholders, during which they discussed istan, the Council adopted resolution 2086 tional civilian expertise. It was also decided progress on three priorities of engagement (rec- onciliation, security and justice), as well as land on peacekeeping on 21 January 2013 high- that this would be the final report on the civil- and natural-resource issues. lighting peacebuilding activities in peace- ian capacity initiative. Ambassador Paul Seger (Switzerland) visited keeping operations. Burundi from 13-17 January. The visit was one of The PBC adopted a declaration on Seger’s regularly scheduled trips but occurred women’s economic empowerment for in the context of the government’s request to

KEY UN DOCUMENTS ON PEACEBUILDING Security Council Presidential Statement S/PRST/2012/29 (20 December 2012) was on post-conflict peacebuilding.Secretary-General‘s Reports S/2014/5 (6 January 2014) was on civilian capacity in the aftermath of conflict. S/2012/746 (8 October 2012) was on peacebuilding in the aftermath of conflict. S/2010/466 (7 September 2010) was on women’s participation in peacebuilding. Peacebuilding Commission Documents S/2013/63 (29 January 2013) was the 2013 annual report of the Peacebuilding Commission. PBC/7/OC/3 (26 September 2013) was a PBC declaration on women in peacebuilding.

30 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast March 2013 Peacebuilding (con’t)

close the UN Office in Burundi. In Seger’s view, as and the recurrence of conflict in the CAR Council Dynamics expressed in his report on the trip (S/2014/57) will be on members’ minds. Renewal of con- According to the 20 December 2012 presi- and Council briefing on 28 January, the interna- flict in these countries comes despite the UN dential statement, this briefing should have tional community should continue to closely fol- low developments in Burundi. Mission in South Sudan’s strong peacebuild- been held last December. France, however, ing mandate and the CAR’s inclusion on the asked if Luxembourg could preside over the PBC’s agenda since 2007. meeting during its presidency, as Luxem- Key Issues bourg, which chairs the PBC Guinea configu- The briefing will update the Council on UN Options ration, is very active in peacebuilding. Ambas- peacebuilding efforts, likely by reporting on The Council could: sador Zeid Ra’ad Zeid Al-Hussein (Jordan), examples from the field in inclusivity, insti- • receive the briefing and take no action (a who joined the Council in January, was for- tution-building and sustained international final report on peacebuilding is due from merly chair of the Liberia configuration and- support, areas which the Secretary-General the Secretary-General in December, when brings additional peacebuilding experience. highlighted in his 8 October 2012 report on it may adopt a new presidential state- The Secretary-General’s Seven-Point peacebuilding in the aftermath of conflict. ment); or Action plan to enhance women’s participa- Progress on the Secretary-General’s Seven • issue a press statement welcoming the tion in peacebuilding was never endorsed by Point Action Plan to increase women’s par- briefing and reiterating support for UN the Council. Russia has prevented it from ticipation in peacebuilding is another issue. peacebuilding efforts, including strength- being referenced in Council documents. The outbreak of civil war in South Sudan ening women’s involvement.

Security Council Report Monthly Forecast March 2013 securitycouncilreport.org 31 Notable Dates for March Security Council Report Staff Bruno Stagno Report Due Reports for Consideration in MARCH Requesting Executive Director Document Joanna Weschler Deputy Executive Director & 15 May 2013 SG report on children and armed conflict (S/2013/245) S/RES/2068 Director of Research

Amanda Roberts 25 February SG report on UNISFA (Abyei) S/RES/2126 Coordinating Editor & Senior Research Analyst 26 February SG report on UNSMIL (Libya) S/RES/2095 Shamala Kandiah Thompson What’s in Blue Editor & Senior 27 February OPCW report on the implementation of resolution 2118 (Syrian S/RES/2118 Research Analyst chemical weapons) Astrid Forberg Ryan Senior Research Analyst & 27 February SG report on the implementation of resolution 1701 (Lebanon/ S/RES/2115 Development Officer UNIFIL) Victor Casanova Abos Research Analyst 28 February SG recommendations on the effectiveness of UNAMID (Darfur) S/RES/2113 Charles Cater 28 February SG report on UNMIL (Liberia) S/RES/2116 Research Analyst Paul Romita 3 March SG report on UNSOM (Somalia) S/RES/2102 Research Analyst

Eran Sthoeger 5 March SG report on UNAMA (Afghanistan) S/RES/2096 Research Analyst

5 March SG recommendations for MISCA (CAR) S/RES/2127 Benjamin Villanti Research Analyst

6 March SG report on UNMISS (South Sudan) S/RES/2109 Robbin VanNewkirk Publications Coordinator 6 March SG report on MONUSCO (DRC) S/RES/2098 Laura Coquard-Wallace Research Associate 6 March SG report on the PSC Framework for the DRC and the Region S/RES/2098 Dahlia Morched Research Assistant 10 March SG report on MINUSTAH (Haiti) S/RES/2119 Vladimir Sesar 13 March SG report on UNIPSIL (Sierra Leone) S/RES/2097 Research Associate Maritza Tenerelli 14 March SG report on UNAMI (Iraq) S/RES/2110 Administrative Assistant

Lindiwe Knutson 17 March SG report on UNDOF (Golan Heights) S/RES/2131 Research Intern

20 March SG report on Iraq/Kuwait Missing Persons and Property S/RES/2107 Stevenson Swanson Editorial Consultant

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32 whatsinblue.org Security Council Report Monthly Forecast March 2013