The Lessons from Bradford West for Election Campaigning and Political

Home , Bob Mellish, Bradford Beck, Bradford City Hall, George Galloway, Gerry Sutcliffe, Keighley East

EARTHQUAKEU D M O

The lessons from Bradford West for election campaigning C D

I A

❱ T and political engagement in Britain Lewis Baston I T C The Democratic Audit

THE BRADFORD EARTHQUAKE 2 The Democratic Audit ❱ Contents

❱ About this report 5 ❱ Key findings 7 ❱ Summary 9 A THE CONTEXT OF THE BY-ELECTION 1 Introducing the constituency 13 2 The city of Bradford 17 3 Bradford in 2012 21 4 The coming of the by-election 22 B THE BRADFORD WEST BY-ELECTION CAMPAIGN 1 The campaign: the ‘orthodox’ version 23 2 The Labour selection: the first turning point 26 3 The Respect campaign 28 4 The televised debate: the second turning point 35 5 The outcome 37 C THE MAY 2012 Council elections 1 The May 2012 council elections in Bradford 40 2 The council election results analysed 41 3 Bradford Council: the future 45 D THE MEANING OF BRADFORD WEST 1 ‘The most sensational result’: Bradford and other by-elections 47 2 What caused the Bradford earthquake? 50 3 A rational use of the vote 60 ❱ Sources and bibliography 61 ❱ About Democratic Audit 64

THE BRADFORD EARTHQUAKE 3 The Democratic Audit

Lewis Baston is a Senior Research Fellow at Democratic Audit, specialising in elections and electoral systems. From 2003 until 2010 he was Director of Research at the Electoral Reform Society. His published work includes the biography of Reginald Maudling, an account of the 2011 AV referendum, and several works of electoral analysis. Images of Patrice Warrener’s illumination of Bradford Town hall are by kind permission of Joanna Stratton. All other uncredited photographs are by the author Designed by Tony Garrett.

THE BRADFORD EARTHQUAKE 4 The Democratic Audit ❱ About this report

ollowing the March 2012 by-election in FBradford West, which resulted in a dramatic gain for George Galloway of Respect, the Joseph Rowntree Reform Trust commissioned a report from Lewis Baston (of Democratic Audit) to analyse what happened. The task was to explain the result and its implications for political parties and campaigners of all parties. The report is divided into four sections – the context of the election, the campaign, the local elections of May 2012 and the overall meaning of the political changes in Bradford.

THE BRADFORD EARTHQUAKE 5 The Democratic Audit

THE BRADFORD EARTHQUAKE 6 The Democratic Audit ❱ Key findings

The corrosion of the established feel they have deserted their usual political parties in Bradford West party but that Labour has failed them and that there has been an option 1. The recent political history of Bradford available that better reflects the real West has been marred by patronage, values of the party. neglect, bad organisation and even electoral fraud. Both Labour and The local roots of Respect the Conservatives are implicated in 5. Galloway could not have won without this state of affairs. Local politics a locally-generated upsurge of political in Bradford has been about mutual activity; the energy of the Respect accommodation between elites of campaign came largely from local soil each community (‘Asians’, city whites and was not a product of a centrally- and suburbanites) rather than real driven party strategy. diversity, and voters have found this alienating. 6. That upsurge would probably not have happened had the local Labour Party 2. ‘Biraderi’ (clan-based loyalty) has in succeeded over the years in first serving the past offered parties an apparently as a suitable channel for political easy mechanism to amass block votes, activity in Bradford West, and second but the price that parties (Labour in running a selection process that and Conservative) have paid has been commanded the confidence and support higher than they anticipated and of party members and the broader ultimately led to disaster, particularly community. when combined with a lack of local political organisation and discussion. 7. The Bradford Respect campaign itself compares with other protest 3. Bradford Labour in particular needs to movements such as Occupy in its absorb the lessons of the election and self-conception and in its free-form change itself radically; the same may organisational style. apply in other apparently ‘safe’ seats where local politics is weak. There is a Campaign techniques danger of a political vacuum developing 8. In terms of campaigning methods in the city and elsewhere which may there was no revolution, merely a be filled by fringe politics, despair or positive rational ‘reboot’ conducted by violence. Respect of traditional techniques in 4. As with some other by-elections in a modern setting. Bradford’s political which huge shifts of votes have taken parties have been held back in their place, voters in Bradford West do not development as campaigning entities

THE BRADFORD EARTHQUAKE 7 The Democratic Audit

by non-ideological clan politics, factors come together, and should give and Respect’s innovations came as both major parties pause for thought more of a shock than they would about their relationship with the core have in more engaged polities. The voters they take for granted. standard set of by-election campaign 14. The result should not be dismissed as techniques brought to Bradford by an emotional spasm or a mistake by the the main parties failed. electors of Bradford, but as a very clear 9. The interaction of social and repudiation of the local power structure traditional media can have a and the way that national politics is stronger effect than either alone; conducted. the effect of the television debate in the last weekend of the campaign in Bradford West is a fascinating example of how messages can be propagated. 10. National messages and campaigning language failed to connect with Bradford West electors’ bad experiences of mainstream politics. 11. Bradford itself suffers from a pervasive sense of neglect and decline, hence the power of the symbolic issues of the Westfield Hole and the Odeon during the by-election campaign. 12. International affairs, particularly as they affect Muslims, did play an unusually large part in the by-election. This raises further questions about identity politics and celebrity in an age of plural media, and the way in which feelings of victimhood and resentment are cultivated, not only among young people and Muslims but across the political spectrum.

Overall observations 13. While the circumstances were unique it would be inappropriate to dismiss Bradford West as an unimportant aberration. It indicates the vulnerability of apparent strongholds when a number of

THE BRADFORD EARTHQUAKE 8 The Democratic Audit ❱ Summary

Setting the scene of IT and its ability to mobilise Muslim women and young people, who had he Bradford West by-election of March previously seemed politically invisible in 2012, in which George Galloway of Bradford. More broadly, the result was the Respect party triumphantly won T seen as a repudiation by the electorate a long-established Labour seat, was one of party politics in general, and Labour of the most surprising and notable by- in particular, by many commentators. election outcomes in recent British history. The majority of Westminster insiders, Few observers among Westminster who had written off Galloway as a busted politicians and the media had a clue that flush, were appalled that he was elected. Bradford West would be anything other Many accused Galloway of running an than a routine Labour hold, and even unscrupulous campaign that exploited among Bradford Labour campaigners Muslim concerns and unfairly criticised there was little idea of what was to hit his Labour opponent Imran Hussain. them until the ballot boxes were opened on the night. However, a deeper look at by-elections, the Bradford political background and The shock by-election result changed the the politics of the Pakistani-British political climate for the Bradford city community in Bradford makes it clear council elections in May 2012. Respect that the Bradford West by-election was a gained five seats in Bradford, and complex phenomenon, which crystallised deprived Labour of the chance of taking several things that were ready to happen overall control of the council. Despite the in Bradford. Galloway was in the classic problems that Respect encountered in the position of the rebel leader, summed up by summer and autumn of 2012, something words attributed to Ledru-Rollin in 1848: new had clearly taken place in local ‘I am their leader. I must follow them’; politics, and that change might well have his campaign was a catalyst for a popular national significance. movement against a particularly decrepit Several explanations have been offered local political order in Bradford West. The for the revolution in Bradford politics, culture of the campaign was participatory which Respect supporters quickly and and perhaps chaotically democratic and controversially called the ‘Bradford Spring’ inclusive, on the conscious model of the by analogy with popular risings in the Occupy movement. Arab word. After the election there was considerable attention on the apparently The corrosion of the established new and innovative techniques that political parties in Bradford West the Respect campaign used in the by- Any adequate account of the Bradford election, including its superior command West by-election has to start by addressing

THE BRADFORD EARTHQUAKE 9 The Democratic Audit The normal the failure of the main political parties in party politics works, and if it was true of political the constituency. Without years of neglect, Bradford, people wondered, might it not be “ stemming from an accommodation with true also at a national level? language of power brokers to exploit the clan voting In the words of a voter to a Labour activist ‘fairness’ solidarity of biraderi (a social system of in Bradford ‘we gave you a big kick in kinship that derives from rural Pakistan the backside and we’re waiting to see ‘opportunity’ and Kashmir), there would not have been how you respond to it.’ The main parties, ‘hard working fertile soil for Galloway in Bradford. particularly Labour, have been put on families’ and The constituency Labour Party was notice that the way politics has been quiescent, even moribund, for years, with practiced in Bradford West is unacceptable so on deployed the MP neglectful and ill and hardly to the voters. While the party has been by all the main any political organisation, education or vigilant about far left infiltration, it parties rang debate going on within the party. The has been slack about guarding against Conservatives were no better. Politics and infiltration by others who have no very hollow representation was dominated by the main commitment to Labour values. There in Bradford biraderi clan. This history of neglect and may be other constituencies where an West. manipulation resulted in a lot of dammed- apparently ‘safe’ hold on parliamentary up political energy in a constituency representation has masked serious ‘we” gave with a youthful population with unused problems. Given the decay in active campaigning skills and a lot of local (and, political engagement in many places, [Labour] a the model of winning over block votes by “ admittedly, international) problems to big kick in the get angry and campaign about. It also led dealing with local power brokers is not backside and to a build-up of resentment among the unique to Bradford and may be found in smaller clans who were excluded from other northern and midland urban areas. we’re waiting representation, as well as among Asians It would be rational for Labour to deal to see how not part of the clan system and the local with them before they reach the sort of they respond to white population. crisis that developed in Bradford. The decay of organised politics in Bradford The local energy of the Respect it.’ West before 2012 may seem an isolated campaign ” story, but it reflected in exaggerated caricature a common view of mainstream The arrival of Galloway started to politics held well beyond Bradford. The transform this potential for a challenge normal political language of ‘fairness’ to traditional politics in Bradford West, ‘opportunity’ ‘hard working families’ and but the Labour selection meeting was so on deployed by all the main parties the key turning point. Although Imran rang very hollow in Bradford West, where Hussain was selected by a large majority manipulated clan politics meant that of those present, there was a sense within there was little fairness or opportunity Bradford that this merely reflected a good in political selection and well-connected clan turnout and superior manipulative mediocrity would always defeat the organisational skills rather than a genuine talented outsider. Party labels themselves consensus. The selection resulted in the seemed interchangeable to many of the defection of several Labour members, power brokers. Politics in Bradford, to who had come up against the power of the many, seemed to conform very closely machine before, to the Respect campaign. to a far-left view of how mainstream They took with them the ideas and energy THE BRADFORD EARTHQUAKE 10 The Democratic Audit [Online that had been unwelcome in Bradford Bradford West, candidate selection footage of the West Labour. There were some innovative and collective loyalty “ aspects of the Respect campaign – TV debate] particularly in the role of women and Putting the Bradford West result in its use of social media – but most of it context, it has some similarities to past helped make was a sensible adaptation of widely used by-elections and constituency contests Galloway’s methods to the Bradford context, and where there have been huge swings to argument that some – such as George Galloway’s bus Independent or centre candidates such tour in the final days – was evocative as Merthyr Tydfil (1970), Lincoln (1973), people would of old-time electioneering. Other than a Bermondsey (1983), Tatton (1997) and be better strong emphasis on international Muslim Blaenau Gwent (2005). A normally loyal off sending issues, the campaign centred around local partisan electorate felt that its allegiance issues such as the Westfield Hole and the had been tested past breaking point by a Parliamen- Odeon cinema and a broad left of centre the party failing in its obligations to run tarian to prospectus. a fair selection procedure with a locally acceptable result. In many of these On the surface, the Bradford West Westminster elections, as in Bradford, there was an campaign had seemed to be similar to than a unusual amount of discussion among most of the other by-elections in the the voters themselves, and a sense of a councillor. 2010 parliament in safe Labour seats – a community coming to a collective decision routine canter to victory for the Labour ” rather than an individual exercise of While candidate, helped by the unpopularity of consumer choice which is increasingly the coalition government (which deepened the Respect the model of national politics. Galloway’s “ considerably during March 2012). There campaign made it easier for Labour campaign was was nothing that one could point to in supporters to switch over by claiming the Labour campaign (or the others) that to some extent to be ‘real Labour’ as opposed to ‘New the party had done particularly wrong; about failing Labour’, and carrying on the left and it was just that the procession of visiting anti-war traditions of the city and the to challenge dignitaries and press releases on national previous West MP Marsha Singh. So and local issues seemed irrelevant to popular beliefs, while a startling result, it was not the the electorate, and this time there was and stimulating same sort of transformative result as the an alternative. The nature of the choice most consequential by-elections such as grievances was made very clear by the BBC Sunday Hamilton (1967) and Orpington (1962) Politics debate broadcast on the last without doing which established the SNP and the weekend of the campaign – Galloway was Liberals as significant electoral forces and much to solve clearly a much stronger orator than his changed the whole of British politics. them, the same competitors. It helped make Galloway’s can be said argument that people would be better off Identity politics, celebrity and sending a Parliamentarian to Westminster about many than a councillor. The video of the debate Bradford other political was widely circulated online in the final There are several facets of the Bradford campaigns. days of the campaign; the combination result that have wider ramifications. One of traditional and social media proved a is that we may be in an age of celebrity ” stronger influence on electors than either politics but that what we understand could alone. by celebrity and the media need to be rethought. Galloway was not familiar to the Bradford West electorate because

THE BRADFORD EARTHQUAKE 11 The Democratic Audit The prospect of Big Brother, but because of his place in Respect since the summer. The of a complete appearances on Iranian Press TV and his party should not, morally or practically, “ Talk Sport radio broadcasts, and his tour assume that Respect’s problems will vacuum in de force before a US Senate committee in cause its strength in the majority-Asian political 2005 which is a YouTube favourite to this wards of Bradford to wither away without day. Galloway’s triumph emerged from a Labour doing anything to put its own engagement in segmented, pluralistic and international house in order. The prospect of a complete this troubled media landscape. While he was a celebrity, vacuum in political engagement in this it was celebrity that was earned mostly troubled section of a city with more than section of a city by political stands that a young politically its fair share of problems should be much with more than minded audience liked. The contrast with more terrifying than the emergence of its fair share of Esther Rantzen’s failure in Luton South Respect as a competitor. Bradford Labour in the 2010 general election is instructive, probably does not have the resources to problems should not only in terms of how celebrity throw off the problems that have caused be much more translates into politics but also in how it the decay, and the process of rebuilding terrifying than is possible for local mainstream politics to a mass membership, vibrant and revive itself in a way that Labour failed to politically engaged local party will require the emergence do in Bradford West. considerable outside help. of Respect as a There was an element of identity politics Conclusion: a rational use of the competitor. in the by-election, without a doubt. At power of the vote times, particularly during the less savoury Much commentary after the election The problems” interludes in the campaign, it seemed to was implicitly critical of the electors of be about Labour and Respect both trying of Bradford Bradford West. But regardless of what “ to claim support based on who was the they think about Galloway over the longer are much more better Muslim, and Galloway clearly term, the voters of the constituency used targeted his appeal at Muslim interests widely known their power in a rational way. It was an and ways of looking at the world. This and discussed opportunity to strike a blow against a local is hardly surprising, or even – as such – power structure that was widely disliked. because of the reprehensible. It is surely routine politics It was a cry for help for a constituency when a democratic politician tells the by-election. suffering not only from manifold social voters what they want to hear, in the sort problems (including rapidly rising ” of language that he thinks they would unemployment) but also a pervasive sense respond best to, and it is inconsistent – of having been neglected, forgotten and dare one say racist or Islamophobic – to shabbily treated which gave Westfield object to pandering to Muslims but not and the Odeon such symbolic power. The to, say, pandering to other sorts of myths problems of Bradford are much more about nationalism, Europe or immigration. widely known and discussed because of the While the Respect campaign was to some by-election. Even if Galloway’s populism extent about failing to challenge popular outlives its usefulness, the by-election will beliefs, and stimulating grievances have done the city a service. And having without doing much to solve them, the used the ballot to achieve an extraordinary same can be said about many other result, the electors of Bradford – political campaigns. particularly women, the young and the Labour cannot afford to be complacent marginalised – know that they have the about the ructions which have taken power to do it again.

THE BRADFORD EARTHQUAKE 12 The Democratic Audit A THE CONTEXT OF THE BY- ELECTION

1 Introducing the Wilkinson, was fairly narrowly defeated by the incumbent Bradford East Labour MP constituency since 1966, Edward Lyons. The seat has remained fairly much the same in terms of he current Bradford West boundaries ever since, with minor changes constituency basically dates back to in 1983 and 2010 and no alterations in T1974, when the previous Bradford 1997. East and Bradford West seats were subject The constituency consists of six wards to major boundary changes. The previous of the city of Bradford, including the Bradford West comprised western suburbs City centre and university area (City of Bradford, and was Conservative in all ward), a northern inner city district with but the best national election for Labour a large proportion of residents of Asian (1966) after its creation in 1955, but the origin and Muslim faith (Manningham new seat took in a substantial area of the and Toller) and an ethnically mixed inner city. The incumbent Conservative northern suburb, Heaton. To the west MP since 1970 for Bradford West, John of the city centre there are two mainly white wards, mixing suburban territory Bradford West constituency and some villages absorbed into the city

SHIPLEY

Heaton

Toller Thornton & Allerton Manningham BRADFORD EAST

City

Clayton & Fairweather Green

BRADFORD SOUTH © OpenStreetMap contributors

THE BRADFORD EARTHQUAKE 13 The Democratic Audit

(Thornton and Allerton, and Clayton & parent families relatively low, compared to Fairweather Green). Geographically, the other Bradford seats.1 the constituency tends to slope upwards The Muslim population of Bradford West away from the city centre, with is a relatively young one, and in City ward Manningham on a ridge and western in particular it is augmented by a large suburbs at Thornton and Clayton rather student population attached to Bradford resembling moorland villages. University or Bradford College – at the The two basic demographic facts about time of the 2001 Census 39.1 per cent the Bradford West constituency that of people aged between 16 and 74 were are apparent from the 2001 Census students. are its religious/ ethnic composition Bradford (the metropolitan borough) and its youthful population. It was has one of the youngest populations in 47.4 per cent non-white (13th highest England & Wales according to the 2011 of 650 constituencies), 34.1 per cent census. The proportion of its population Pakistani (comfortably the highest), aged under 20 was 28.8 per cent, lagging 38.0 per cent Muslim (second highest, only Barking & Dagenham (31.4 per cent), after Bethnal Green & Bow) and 25.7 Birmingham (28.9 per cent) and Slough per cent aged between 0 and 15 (7th (also 28.8 per cent). highest). The Census also showed Bradford West to be in the top 20 per Bradford West has a unique political cent of constituencies for undesirable history. Even before the 2012 by-election, indicators like unemployment and lack the voting behaviour of Bradford West of educational qualifications. Private 1 House of Commons Research Paper 08/38, 2001 Census of Population Statistics for New Parliamentary renting is relatively high, and single- Constituencies.

THE BRADFORD EARTHQUAKE 14 The Democratic Audit

Thornton, a – not typical – part of Bradford West

had some unusual features. Between 1974 had been a favoured destination for and 2010 the results for each party varied immigrants to Britain, particularly those only within narrow bands, regardless of coming from Pakistan and India, and by national trends. The Conservative vote the mid-1980s the city – particularly the was between 31 and 39 per cent, Labour’s inner areas such as Manningham and between 40 and 53, and the Liberal University – was firmly established as Democrats (and predecessors) between 7 one of the main centres of Britain’s Asian and 19 per cent. The only exception came population. Its bonds with Kashmir, in 1983, when Edward Lyons (elected as particularly with Mirpur, were deep and Labour in 1979) defended the seat for the ran both ways. SDP Liberal Alliance and seems to have In Bradford, and in many of the other brought with him a block of votes which northern towns with substantial Asian reverted to Labour in 1987. communities, there is not the diversity The stability of voting patterns in found for instance among Londoners – Bradford West meant that it recorded London Muslims may be of Bangladeshi, some results that were startlingly against Turkish, Cypriot, Arab, Somali, Indian, the national trend. It swung towards East African or other origin as well as Labour in 1979 and 2010, but in favour of Pakistani. But in Bradford ethnicity, the Conservatives in 1997. shared history and religion run together (with a few exceptions such as the Sikh Older statistics on ethnicity are unreliable, community). but in the 1981 Census Bradford West had one of the highest proportions of The political and policy implications of a population in households whose head substantial Asian-British population have was born in the New Commonwealth been reflected in the politics of Bradford or Pakistan (27.0 per cent, with only 10 for some time. Both Lyons and Wilkinson constituencies having a higher proportion). served on Commons committees on race From the 1960s onwards Bradford relations and immigration in pre-1974

THE BRADFORD EARTHQUAKE 15 The Democratic Audit

parliaments. In 1981 Edward Lyons in contrast to nearly everywhere else joined the Social Democratic Party, but in the country there was a swing from he was defeated in 1983 by the Labour Labour to Conservative in Bradford West. nominee, Max Madden (previously MP for This was less to do with Muslim hostility Sowerby 1974-79) who represented the to him as a Sikh (this was, Bradford seat until 1997. The Labour selection in commentators tend to believe, not much 1997 was contentious but it was won by of a factor) than the positive appeal of the Marsha Singh. Singh, like Madden, was Conservative candidate Mohammed Riaz. to the left of the Labour Party. He had Riaz was2 a Muslim, and had been one long been involved in Bradford politics, of Bradford’s most prominent councillors including the protests in the 1980s during for some time – he had defected from the ‘Honeyford Affair’. As a Sikh, Singh Labour to Conservative in 1990 following was a member of a significant established a leadership challenge within the Labour minority community within Bradford, but group. Singh’s majority drifted upwards one that is a lot smaller than the Muslim and peaked in 2010. The fact that Singh community. For Singh’s generation of won re-election in 2005 and 2010 should activist, religion was much secondary to instantly rule out the assumption that ethnicity in terms of his personal and the by-election was all about the (2003) political identity – his politics was formed Iraq war. In most constituencies (such by the struggle against racism rather than as Leicester South for instance) Muslim that against Islamophobia. hostility to Labour peaked in 2003-05 and after that the community’s Labour Singh’s first election was unusual, in that loyalties tended to reassert themselves. Bradford West general election results since 1974 Bradford West, though, was different.

Lab LD/All/Lib Far right Left The 2005 election in Bradford West was Con Green Anti EU Other also notable for a successful prosecution for electoral fraud. Five Conservative % vote for each party activists were jailed for conspiring to 60 produce hundreds of false postal vote 53.8 53.2 53.0 51.9 applications, but the plot was exposed by 48.5 50 48.0 a newspaper investigation before these 45.4 applications could be converted into votes. 43.4 41.6 40.9 The applications were made in the names 40 39.7 36.7 36.7 37.1 39.7 of people who had little understanding 38.7 33.8 37.2 37.0 31.2 of the electoral process and who lived 33.0 30 32.9 3 31.7 31.4 in houses in multiple occupation. Two of those found guilty had been elected 25.3 Conservative councillors in the 2004 20 elections but were no longer councillors at the time of the trial in 2009-10 – Jamshed 10 Khan for City ward, Reis Khan for 8.5 Manningham.

0 2 Riaz is still involved in Bradford politics and stood as Conservative candidate in Bradford East in the 2010 1979 1983 1987 1992 1997 2001 2005 2010 2012 general election. 1979 n 2005 n 1974 Feb1974 Oct 3 Daily Telegraph, 7 September 2010.

THE BRADFORD EARTHQUAKE 16 The Democratic Audit

Bradford Interchange station, right, and Bradford Exchange station, below, closed in May 1969

2 The city of Bradford and heavy industry since the 1970s has scarred the landscape and the economy, leaving low-wage, low-skill and high An industrial and post-industrial unemployment problems behind. city radford mushroomed from a small Bradford, particularly the west side, town to an industrial metropolis has drawn in immigrants throughout during the 19th Century, mostly its short history as a big city. At the B turn of the century German and Jewish from the woollen textile industry. The city is in a bowl of hills, with a valley communities existed in the city centre stretching north from the centre to and Manningham. In the 1950s and 1960s Shipley along Bradford Beck (separating the mills demanded ever more unskilled West and East/ North Bradford and semi-skilled labour, and an influx of constituencies) with open moorland people came from the Indian subcontinent, visible from many city neighbourhoods, particularly the Mirpur area of Kashmir and a hilly landscape making up its where people were displaced by the suburbs. It has a handsome Victorian construction of a dam. centre and some fine villas just to the ‘Bradistan’ and biraderi north around Lister Park (one of Britain’s The politics of Pakistan – or, more great urban parks), but a great deal of precisely, the social structures of rural industrial and post-industrial squalor. Kashmir – have had their impact on the The housing stock is among the oldest in politics of Bradford. One cannot talk for the country, with over a third of houses long to people about Bradford politics built before 1919, and 60 per cent of its without coming across the term ‘Biraderi’. private rented sector housing was rated Its literal meaning is ‘brotherhood’ or at being below decent standards.4 Some ‘kinship’ but in the politics of Pakistani of its council-built developments from communities in Bradford it means an the 1950s and 1960s are also troubled elaborate, subtle system of clan influence. and poor places. The decline of textiles It is strongest among Azad Kashmiris, most of whose families came from rural 4 Jenni Viitanen, Alike in Dignity? Housing in Bradford, Newcastle, IPPR North, 2012. backgrounds where the bonds of clan

THE BRADFORD EARTHQUAKE 17 The Democratic Audit and extended family dominate other global communications) binds people loyalties such as ideology, party allegiance back to the politics of their community’s or sometimes even religion. Biraderi in country of origin. Community elders Bradford centres around two broad clans, travel between Britain and Pakistan Jaats and Bains, and other clans even at election times in both countries to among people of Mirpuri origin are often advise, even enforce, biraderi obligations. locked out of political power. According to Socially, the Bradford community is held Hill, citing Akhtar: back by its strong ties back to Kashmir that are reflected in traditions such as biraderi is a caste system of social children spending long periods there, stratification. Each biraderi is not equal and arranged marriages between rural but fits into a hierarchy of biraderis Mirpuris and Bradfordians. As David or castes. The main biraderis are; Goodhart noted: the Rajputs who are traditionally the landowners, the Jaats who traditionally A growing number of Pakistanis, work the land, the Gujars who are especially the better educated, now traditionally livestock herders, the marry from within their community in Arains who are market gardeners and Britain. Yet arranged marriages with the Kammi who are the servant classes.5 a partner from Pakistan, often a first cousin, are still the norm and only 15 Biraderi emerged as a kind of sociological per cent of Pakistanis born in Bradford compromise between the hierarchical in 2009 had two parents who were also castes that were traditional to south Asian born here.7 culture and the egalitarian, universal imperative of Islam, and was itself The constant exchange between changed by immigration to Britain and Kashmir and Bradford has also enabled moving from a rural to an urban or global biraderi to continue to exert influence frame of reference. It is a complex and, at a stage when such phenomena have at least in the British context, under- dwindled away almost entirely in other analysed phenomenon.6 communities based on 1950s/60s primary immigration. The community exists in Such phenomena are far from unknown two worlds, urban and British on the among immigrant communities the world one hand and rural and Kashmiri on the over. The Tammany Hall politics of New other, and is thus resistant to the usual York in the late 19th and early 20th processes of assimilation. Centuries was not dissimilar. Irish and Italian immigrants would be welcomed A radical city by members of extended families and incorporated into the political machine, Bradford has a long tradition of religious in exchange for jobs (e.g. in the police) and political movements: nonconformist and other benefits such as citizenship. chapels and Victorian philanthropy However, unlike the New York immigrant shape the landscape as well as heavy political machine, biraderi (combined industry and bad housing. Bradford can with easier long-distance travel and claim to be one of the birthplaces of the political Labour movement in Britain, 5 Eleanor Hill, Ethnicity and Democracy: A Study into as the Independent Labour Party (ILP) Biraderi, BA thesis School of Historical Studies, University of Bradford, 2012 p6. 7 David Goodhart, ‘A tale of three cities’ Prospect 6 The works of Eleanor Hill and Navid Akhtar stand out June 2011, http://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/ in this respect. magazine/bradford-burnley-oldham-riots-ten-years-on/

THE BRADFORD EARTHQUAKE 18 The Democratic Audit was founded in the city in 1893. It has had Branch-line Bradford more recent radical moments, including To arrive in a fine Victorian city like the first-established (1973) and biggest Bradford by train, one should really step Peace Studies department in a British into a lofty stone palace. But in Bradford university, a Peace Museum, an active one scuttles like a rat into a tin shed, and Militant Tendency in the local Labour all its trains – with the exception of the Party in the 1980s and the first stirrings of quirky Grand Central direct service to political Islamism in Britain in 1988-90. London – are meanly upholstered buses on Bradford had also suffered civil rails. disturbances on several occasions, most Bradford’s branch-line status on the recently in 1995 and 2001 with rioting in railway map is an expression of a more Manningham. These episodes were each general sense in which the city seems preceded by rising inter-ethnic tension sidelined. Despite its size, its influence and simmering violence. On the latter peters out remarkably quickly as one occasion there were some exemplary leaves the city. The urban revival of the sentences handed down for riot-related 1990s and 2000s was good for Manchester crime. Ten years later there was a lot and Leeds, and their city centres became of looking back, and discussion of the fashionable places to work, shop and live, concepts of integration, multiculturalism but Bradford was off the Manchester- and segregation and how they had worked Leeds axis that dominated the North. out in Bradford.8 There was no rioting in Bradford, unlike several other cities, in Metro Bradford summer 2011. The Metropolitan Borough of Bradford Although this is hardly a rigorous social was established in the local government science finding, Bradfordians of all reorganisation of 1972-74. It includes ethnicities seem to have the bone-dry the core city of Bradford and a number wit, mild arrogance, self-deprecation and of outlying communities – Keighley, laconic pessimism that one also finds Shipley, Haworth, Queensbury, Ilkley and in the people of Glasgow and Belfast. Wharfedale. While the city of Bradford had Bradford is simultaneously the best and previously usually been Labour-controlled worst of places; it is the true centre of the other than for fairly short interludes world, even if it is run by crooked, idiot of no overall control or Conservative philistines and even if the rest of the world control (the longest being 1967-72), the stubbornly refuses to acknowledge the metropolitan authority was won by the fact. Even local journalist Jim Greenhalf’s Conservatives in its inaugural election in mostly affectionate contemporary history 1973 and controlled by the Tories until of the place is called It’s a Mean Old 1980. Labour could not gain a firm hold Scene.9 on the council until 1990, following a brief and controversial period of radical Conservative control in the late 1980s

8 See for example David Goodhart ‘A tale of when Eric Pickles was council leader. three cities’ Prospect, June 2011, http://www. Labour had a majority in Bradford until prospectmagazine.co.uk/magazine/bradford-burnley- oldham-riots-ten-years-on/ 2000, and since then it has been under 9 Jim Greenhalf, It’s A Mean Old Scene: a history of no overall control with the Conservatives modern Bradford since 1974, Bradford, Redbeck Press, 2003. taking the leading roles from 2000 to 2010

THE BRADFORD EARTHQUAKE 19 The Democratic Audit and Labour since May 2010. In terms of parliamentary representation, Metro Bradford has five constituencies. The politics of Metro Bradford are Bradford South has been the most therefore more complicated than many consistent of all of them, having been suggested at and after the by-election Labour at every election since 1974 (and (including George Galloway and even on previous boundaries back to 1945), many Bradfordians). It simply cannot although the Conservatives came only be an example of entrenched and stale 110 votes short in 1983. It is essentially Labour dominance. Labour had run the the ‘white working class’ seat in Bradford. place, without an overall majority but with Bradford West was consistently Labour support from the Greens, for less than two from 1974 until 2012. Keighley is a years at the time of the by-election, and traditional marginal constituency, being had been out of office for ten years before won by the Conservatives in 1970, Labour that. The Conservative leaders of the from February 1974 until 1983, the council, Kris Hopkins and Margaret Eaton, Conservatives from 1983 to 1997, Labour were less abrasive than Pickles but were from 1997 to 2010 and Conservative since still notable; Hopkins became an MP in then. Other than in 1979 (by 78 votes) it 2010 and Eaton was Conservative leader has supported the party that has gone on on the Local Government Association. It to form the government ever since 1959. was also a fairly early Conservative-Lib Shipley, north of Bradford and extending Dem coalition, founded three years before into the Wharfedale countryside, is the municipal coalition in Birmingham, for normally Conservative although Labour instance. won it in 1997 and 2001. Bradford East While Metro Bradford’s boundaries (or North) has been the most changeable, made sense in 1972 (the mills of Shipley having voted Labour until a surprising were founded by Bradford tycoons, for Conservative gain in 1983, then reverted instance), it was common by 2012 to to Labour in 1987 and sprung another hear arguments that it was the local surprise by going Liberal Democrat in government equivalent of a failed state. 2010. Labour, therefore, have deteriorated It was not warmly regarded in Keighley from having five out of five between 1997 and Shipley, and the increasing strength and 2005 to having only one (South) after of the gravitational pull from Leeds the Bradford West by-election. meant that these areas had little fellow Following the by-election, Bradford can feeling and linkage with Bradford city. claim to have one of the most ideologically Some of them were enjoying considerable diverse parliamentary delegations, prosperity – in Ilkley for instance house consisting of George Galloway (Bradford prices doubled in the decade to 2011. West, Respect), Gerry Sutcliffe (Bradford The case for a metropolitan borough South, mainstream Labour), David Ward comprising Keighley, Shipley and (Bradford East, Lib Dem), Kris Hopkins perhaps neighbouring areas of Leeds (Keighley, loyalist Conservative) and (Guiseley, Horsforth and Otley) has some Philip Davies (Shipley, right-wing rebel adherents.10 Conservative).

10 Telegraph & Argus, 14 April 2012, p17 ‘Split away richer parts of district’ reporting that Keighley MP and former council leader Kris Hopkins suggested a separate Keighley/ Shipley borough. The breakaway concept is sometimes known drolly as ‘Wharfe-Aire’ after the two river valleys that it would be based upon.

THE BRADFORD EARTHQUAKE 20 The Democratic Audit 3 Bradford in 2012 far-right ‘Democratic Nationalist’ party used the slogan ‘Make Bradford British’.12

he by-election took place in a Tragic events in Afghanistan also intruded rather peculiar context, locally and on the campaign period. On 9 March the Tnationally. As it began, Bradford deaths in the Lashkar Gah region of a was in the news because of the Channel Bradford soldier, Chris Kershaw, and 4 television programme Make Bradford five Yorkshire Regiment comrades were British, transmitted on Thursdays reported by the Ministry of Defence. 1 March and 8 March. The programme The opening of City Park in Bradford city focused on the differences between Asian centre took place late in the campaign and white Bradfordians in the context on 24 March. This created a large open of a ‘reality TV’ format and was at times space near City Hall, with grassed areas, uncomfortable viewing, particularly a restaurant, a concrete plaza and most sequence in which white regulars at a arrestingly a huge water feature capable pub criticised a young Muslim woman for at different times of being a paddling pool, her modest dress. Reaction in Bradford a fountain and an evocation of a New York was generally hostile, the local Telegraph style streetscape with steam rising from & Argus newspaper saying that it was the pavement. ‘reinforcing a stereotype which is not only Opinions about City Park are mixed. completely false but has caused untold While there was some complaint about damage to Bradford’s prosperity’ and its cost and its design, the opening went community relations. It also noted the well (and was an opportunity taken by title’s implication that Bradford currently Respect and the Lib Dems to do a little was not British.11 In the by-election the

11 Telegraph & Argus, 2 March 2012, Front page 12 Reproduced at http://www.electionleaflets.org/leaflets/ comment. full/a56e91d3-a77b-4f54-adea-f4c228ec25e4/

City Park, with City Hall in the background, August 2012

THE BRADFORD EARTHQUAKE 21 The Democratic Audit campaigning) and on a summer day it 4 The coming of the by- seems a popular feature, with teenagers and children enjoying the water in the election middle of the city. Whether it will be as cheery in the middle of a Bradford winter Marsha Singh won his best percentage remains to be seen. majority in 2010 (albeit smaller than Max Madden had won in 1992), but his last National political developments in March term in parliament was inactive and cut were also unusual. The opinion polls since short by ill-health. His time in office in autumn 2010 had, despite some dramatic 2005-10 had been marred by a number events (economic crisis and riots among of problems, including a dysfunctional them), not moved much, with Labour situation in his constituency office which usually having a slim lead of a point or led to an industrial tribunal ruling against two over the Conservatives. Despite cuts, him in 2007. Singh was tired, ill and the Conservatives and David Cameron increasingly dependent on alcohol, and seemed in good shape with public – as with many MPs who have had such opinion, while Nick Clegg and the Liberal problems – did not receive sufficient help. Democrats had absorbed the brunt of He was decreasingly able to attend the government unpopularity. This all shifted House of Commons and in February 2012 with the Budget of 21 March. The cut in he became aware that he would not be able top-rate tax to 45p did not go down well, to serve much longer. His colleagues knew but worse was a series of government he was soon to stand down, but it came as embarrassments and reverses over several a surprise that he announced the decision minor Budget measures, including raising as early as 29 February.13 VAT on hot pies and pasties. Immediately before the by-election an atmosphere The timing of the by-election was a of farce reminiscent of the television decision taken centrally by Labour, programme The Thick of It developed, and it was a mistake born perhaps and suitably enough a term from that of not understanding the Bradford programme – ‘omnishambles’ was widely context. The hope was for a Labour used to describe the sudden collapse in the hold to be a ‘springboard’ into the local government’s apparent competence and government elections on 3 May. This was morale. Labour’s opinion poll lead moved a miscalculation of some dimensions. Even upwards towards 10 percentage points, if Labour had done well in Bradford, the where it has stayed since. National politics extent to which it would affect anywhere in March 2012 was therefore in transition else in May was dubious. As it was, the between two states. timing of the by-election cost Labour an overall majority in Bradford. The Labour whips decided to fill the vacancy quickly and the by-election was called for 29 March.

13 Telegraph & Argus, 1 March 2012, ‘MP Marsha stands down.’

THE BRADFORD EARTHQUAKE 22 The Democratic Audit B THE BRADFORD WEST BY-ELECTION CAMPAIGN

1 The campaign: the intersected. The points at which they did, at the Labour selection and the debate on ‘orthodox’ version the last weekend of the campaign, were the seminal moments of the Bradford West t is difficult to construct a clear election. narrative of the Bradford West by- Let us first look at an ‘orthodox’ account of election campaign. It was short and I the campaign, which seemed to represent confused and in many ways the most the mainstream view of the by-election important fact about it was that there up until the result. To most politicians were two parallel campaigns going on and most of the media, the campaign at the same time which only rarely looked like a textbook by-election in a seat that was not going to change hands. The techniques the parties used were all familiar stuff, and reading local newspaper coverage gives one a sense that in many ways it was business as usual. The Liberal Democrats achieved more early coverage than they might have done, helped by two factors. One was that their candidate Jeannette Sunderland was the senior Lib Dem councillor in the city, and already familiar with the traditional business of press releasing her activities before the other parties had got going. The other reason was that broadcasting balance guidelines classified the Lib Dems as one of the three major parties even though it was clear they were not going to do well because of the party’s national loss of popularity. The next entrant to the contest came on 6 March. George Galloway of Respect, formerly an MP in Glasgow (1987-2005) and the East End (2005-10), announced outside Bradford City Hall that he was interested in standing in the by-election.

THE BRADFORD EARTHQUAKE 23 The Democratic Audit

The media did not take his challenge overwhelmingly selected by those present. terribly seriously at this point; one He represented Toller ward, part of the correspondent asked him if his political West constituency, and was a known credibility had disappeared up a cat-flap (a figure in the city’s politics. He seemed to reference to his notorious appearance on be the classic ‘safe pair of hands’ choice of Celebrity Big Brother in 2006). Galloway a party that was starting ahead and not was not amused at that point, but he did taking risks. However, it was the biggest have the last laugh. Even at that stage, risk of all, as we shall see. Galloway was still a good subject to write After Imran Hussain was selected, the about. Most of those who dislike him, let Labour campaign geared up and followed alone those who support him, recognise the classic by-election model, with one that there is star quality about Galloway: (slightly unusual) local Bradfordian outrageous, rude, divisive, controversial, twist. The rhythm of the campaign outspoken – but never dull. Even at was defined by the visits from Shadow this very early stage the messages that Cabinet members, particularly Ed Balls dominated Galloway’s campaign were (16 March), Andy Burnham and Harriet already sharp: traditional left-wing Harman (22 March), and Ed Miliband concern about poverty, education and (23 March). The nuts and bolts of the deindustrialisation, awareness of the campaign were run by the party staff from Westfield issue, plus: the Yorkshire and the Humber regional l ‘My point is I am Labour, but the office. difference is I am Real Labour rather Activists from the constituency and than New Labour.’ outside were encouraged to prioritise l ‘A lot of Muslims support me ‘Voter ID’ (doorstep and telephone because I have voiced more strongly canvassing). The campaign set up a than anyone about the intervention website which is now pretty standard for and occupation of Muslims in many a party that is seriously contesting a seat. countries around the world…’ The local tradition that was established is known by different names in different l ‘The by-election is here in just three parties and localities, but in Bradford weeks, but if people decided they want it involved putting stake-boards in the a councillor in Parliament, they front gardens of houses where there can have a councillor… I don’t want to had previously been Labour promises, insult anyone else but think Bradford often without specific consent for an lacks a clear strong voice.’ 14 extra insertion. In the past this had been These themes – a claim to be real Labour, unobjectionable for voters, but on this Muslim politics and the need for a occasion it added to the impression that parliamentarian rather than a councillor – Labour was taking voters for granted. But echoed through the campaign. in the short term it created the impression Labour selected their candidate at a that parts of the constituency, particularly meeting at the Midland Hotel in the city around Manningham, were a sea of centre on Sunday 11 March. The deputy Labour support. leader of the council, Imran Hussain, was The other parties followed the standard campaign model too. The Conservatives 14 Telegraph & Argus, 7 March 2012, p4 ‘Galloway vows to fight for residents’. Emphasis added by current author. were in a rather different position from THE BRADFORD EARTHQUAKE 24 The Democratic Audit the previous few general elections, in Women debate. There may also have that their candidate was non-Muslim been awareness that Hussain was not and from outside the constituency. But experienced in the sort of platform cut and businesswoman Jackie Whiteley did all the thrust that would be involved, particularly sort of things that could have been asked once it was clear that George Galloway of her in terms of appearing at events and would be appearing. knocking on doors. She had visits from The other party campaigns in the election, Conservative Chairman Sayeeda Warsi except for Respect, were even smaller on 19 March, joining her for a visit to an in scale. Green candidate Dawud Islam, Islamic women’s college in Clayton. On 22 despite good media reviews, was left March David Cameron came to Bradford rather to his own devices (he defected West and he and Whiteley visited a to Respect after the election and stood newly opened science-oriented Academy for that party in the local elections in School in Manningham Lane. Cameron May). Campaigns from UKIP, the right was keen to stress Whiteley’s Yorkshire wing Democratic Nationalists, and credentials but also promote government Monster Raving Loonies were all pretty investment in Bradford including city perfunctory. centre improvements, a rail upgrade and super-fast broadband coverage.15 The The general surprise at the result of most convention that existed at one time, that of the media and most politicians outside Prime Ministers did not visit by-elections, Bradford is related to the fact that much of seems to have ended in the last couple of the political and media campaign that was decades. On the eve of poll, Wednesday so comfortingly familiar turned out to be 28 March the Conservatives took out a irrelevant. Labour apparently cruising to half-page advertisement in the Telegraph a victory in a seat that the party had held & Argus, the only party to have done this since 1974 seemed entirely predictable and in the principal local newspaper. Jeanette events at the level that impinged on most Sunderland was also supported by Lib outside observers seemed to confirm that Dem MPs, particularly David Ward (the pattern. MP for Bradford East), but also Greg And so it was that even journalists who Mulholland (Leeds North West) and Party had noticed that something unusual President Tim Farron. was happening in Bradford, such as Labour in particular, but also the Helen Pidd, went to the count expecting Conservatives, took the strategic decision Labour to win and Galloway to score a to avoid hustings events. This is a good second. Labour NEC member Luke standard gambit for a party that thinks Akehurst had expressed anxiety about it is ahead, and was covered by the the election a couple of days before the 16 standard explanation of spending the time count, but his was a fairly isolated voice instead ‘talking to real voters’. Labour of concern. Labour briefers were telling was also concerned because it suspected journalists at the count that Ed Miliband that the hustings events would be hosted would be coming up in the morning to do a and dominated by causes that were not press conference with Imran Hussain. And necessarily sympathetic, particularly then the ballot boxes were opened, and the big JUST/ Student Union/ Muslim everything changed.

15 Telegraph & Argus, 23 March 2012, p7 ‘PM: Tories 16 http://www.progressonline.org.uk/2012/03/28/a-call- have done lots for city.’ to-arms/

THE BRADFORD EARTHQUAKE 25 The Democratic Audit 2 The Labour selection: the it is prone to being captured by organised groups, such as the broad new left (as in first turning point Newham and Bermondsey in the 1970s and 1980s) and Militant (in several places n the surface, as noted above, the in the 1980s). In Bradford West it was co- selection of Imran Hussain as the opted by a rather different sort of political OLabour candidate looked not only machine. But while Militant often used safe but probably as good as the party party procedure and activism to achieve could have wanted. Hussain was a control, the Bradford West machine more reasonably experienced local politician, resembled the previous generation of and had strong local roots – he was born stitch-up, such as the dockland mafia of and bred in the constituency, and had Bermondsey or the sectarian machines done well professionally in qualifying as of the west of Scotland. It depended on a a barrister in 2003. He had been chosen lack of activism and a lack (rather than an overwhelmingly by the local party at excess) of political debate. The Bradford the 11 March selection meeting, with West CLP, according to Labour sources in the backing of perhaps 233 out of 290 Bradford, had not met properly for a year members present. before the by-election and engaged in no political education among its members. The response of Labour’s netroots, such as It was instead captured by networks for Labour List (http://labourlist.org/2012/03/ whom the political aims and values of the bradford-west-candidate-selected/) Labour Party were distinctly secondary. reflected the usual meanings that could The selection itself, as many party contests be read into such a result. However, this do, had its cross-currents. There were was a sign that the standard indicators suspicions among some aspirants that of candidates’ calibre, in terms of local the party leadership had their preferred credentials, political experience and a option, as well as that Imran Hussain was united local party, were not all that they being strongly pushed by interests within seemed in Bradford West. Bradford. Many active Bradford Labour However, in Bradford West the apparently members had no confidence that the NEC united Labour verdict in favour of Hussain shortlisting was operating fairly, pointing at the meeting did not reflect a real to a late decision to increase the shortlist consensus, and reveals problems with the from 7 to 9 aspirants, but the selection standard ways that parties do candidate meeting itself was far from commanding selection. Candidate selection is one of the general support as a fair procedure. essential functions of party organisation Some aspirants spoke of votes that had – a gateway and checkpoint whereby been promised to them experiencing political aspirants are filtered and chosen. various forms of pressure and having to The process has never been infallible, of abandon that support before the meeting. course, but dwindling membership and At the meeting itself, two candidates in activism have created new problems. The particular (Ralph Berry, a councillor from standard coping mechanism has been to Wibsey in Bradford South, and Rupa Huq rely on the formal machinery of the local from Ealing) were regarded as having party – the ward membership and the made the best speeches, while Hussain General Committee – doing its job on the was, according to reports, bland and basis of fewer activists. This can work, but failed to give proper answers to questions

THE BRADFORD EARTHQUAKE 26 The Democratic Audit even in this friendly environment. localised clan networks, anger had built When one member asked a challenging up among many people originating in question of Hussain, she was shushed and other areas and minority clans that had admonished, in an uncomradely fashion, been shut out, and among those who by audience members.17 But the result did wished to dispense with the kinship/ clan not depend on performance on the evening. model of politics altogether.

The dominant machine in Bradford West Many people in Bradford West were sick Labour politics was identified, certainly of the corruption, parochialism and lack by members of other communities, with of sincere ideology in politics in Pakistan the particular community originating and wanted nothing to do with it in in the portion of divided Kashmir (Azad Pakistan, let alone in Bradford. For those Kashmir) under Pakistani rule, and who took Labour values seriously, seeing especially with the Mirpur area within Kashmiri interests predominate and Azad Kashmir. Bradford is a very diverse sometimes in private conversation overtly community, with English whites, black racist (‘you shouldn’t seek selection for people, Poles, Jews and a large number of this seat because you’re not Mirpuri’) or Asian communities (Kashmiri, Gujarati, caste-based arguments used to justify Punjabi, Bangladeshi, Indian, and many selections for council candidates, was others) sharing the city. offensive. That these interests dominated But politically, Mirpur in particular council elections was bad enough, but to and in practice a couple of extended see its culmination in the parliamentary families ‘biraderis’, dominated ‘Asian’ selection was too much to bear for many representation and shared power within of those at the Midland Hotel (and the local Labour Party with English those excluded prior to the meeting). whites. The problem of Bradford While in the past machine victories politics was not so much diversity or had to be regarded as faits accomplis, multiculturalism but the lack of diversity there was an alternative this time in of representation on the Asian side of the form of Respect. Dozens of previous this false dichotomy.18 There are complex Labour activists felt their loyalty had issues involved with ‘biraderi’, discussed been stretched beyond breaking point in the conclusion, but what is significant and could not accept it as being a valid in Bradford is the sense that things were democratic choice. sewn up by a particular subsection of In this, the pattern of events in Bradford the community by means of influence, West is clearly similar to what has organisation, family ties and shadows happened in several dramatic elections cast by Pakistani politics, and that victory in the recent past. In all of them, the in selection contests was a matter of selection process has appeared, to a successful organisation and manoeuvring significant proportion of the Labour rather than legitimately winning a Party membership and its broader political argument or having the candidate electorate, to have violated the norms best suited to the task in hand. Having of procedural fairness and sensitivity to seen representation dominated by a few local conditions. Voters felt that the party 17 Private interviews. had broken an implicit contract with 18 There may well be ‘diversity’ issues on the ‘white’ them, and therefore that the expectation side worthy of exploration, particularly those relating to class. of voter loyalty should not apply.

THE BRADFORD EARTHQUAKE 27 The Democratic Audit The first modern example is probably the 3 The Respect campaign deselection, and subsequent re-election as Independent Labour, of S.O. Davies, the he Respect campaign was MP for Merthyr Tydfil, in 1970. Several foreshortened even in comparison further dramatic upsets have taken with the other party campaigns, place in other elections, such as Lincoln T being concentrated effectively into the in 1973-74, Blyth in 1974, the London last two weeks of March. Galloway having mayoralty in 2000 and Blaenau Gwent made his announcement on 6 March, in 2005 (Bermondsey in 1983, though not much happened for nearly a week. more complex, undoubtedly had some of At this point an (unpublished) opinion the same features). In these cases, the poll found around 10 per cent support for victorious candidate portrayed himself as Galloway, a useful baseline for assessing being the ‘Real Labour’ candidate, with what changed during the campaign.20 He authentic socialist or social democratic started with the advantages of being a Labour values and opposed by machine recognised celebrity, and being known politicians who had manipulated the for his affinity with Muslim and left- selection process.19 wing causes and his forthright manner of putting his case. Even in the early polling, something unusual was happening in that respondents answering the telephone would often interrupt the interviewer before they had finished reading the list of candidates to say that they were voting for Galloway. This foundation of support was quickly built upon when the Respect campaign began in earnest and the Labour selection had taken place. It is important to recognise that the Bradford West Respect campaign arose in no way from a blueprint brought in by ‘outsiders’ (the classic tabloid description of any leftist successes). It arose nearly entirely from the soil of Bradford itself. Although Galloway had his own not inconsiderable resources of oratory and charisma, and brought with him some loyal personal and ideological supporters such as Rob Hoveman and Ron McKay, his main tactical contribution was the idea of an open-topped bus tour. The Bradfordian Respect activists were sceptical about 19 Note that many of the official Labour candidates in these selections were themselves figures of substance, the idea, and not fond of the draughty such as Margaret Jackson (Beckett) in Lincoln and Ivor Richard in Blyth in February 1974, but the perceived creaking bus they rented at short notice, unfairness of the behaviour of the local party meant that electors chose Taverne and Milne instead. 20 Private interview.

THE BRADFORD EARTHQUAKE 28 The Democratic Audit

Shop on White Abbey Road, Bradford

organisationally (as shown by its ability but Galloway’s instincts were sound. The only to run one candidate outside Bradford bus tour, starting late in the campaign, in the 2012 local elections), did not have played to Galloway’s strengths that were a strong brand with the electorate or a already apparent: the buzz in the streets track record of success other than in the about the campaign, the excitement that East End of London in 2004-06, and did something big was happening in Bradford, not have much of a foothold in Bradford. and Galloway’s abilities as a debater Respect had stood in Bradford West in and street-corner orator. The mob scenes 2010 and received 3.3 per cent of the around the bus in the final days helped vote, and there were a handful of existing generate a sense of momentum around members who were useful as a nucleus to Galloway. the campaign and a way in for Galloway Most of the campaign, like the bus tour, to the local community, but it was not was old-fashioned, a deliberate return much of a base. Respect did not have to techniques used when elections had the resources or skills to put together a large component of street theatre. a modern by-election campaign from a What Galloway was doing was not much standing start in the way that the Liberal different from John Major taking to his Democrats had perfected in the 1990s and soapbox in 1992. Not every candidate can 2000s. do this – it requires a degree of celebrity In the first half of March Respect to attract a critical mass of electors to assembled the core of its Bradford a street-corner rally and it also pays to operation. A firm of Bradford solicitors, be quick-witted, loud and articulate. Chambers, was central to the Respect Galloway also spoke on the last weekend effort. The firm provided campaign rooms, of the campaign at a packed public advertising trucks and cars (often used meeting at the Rio Grande rooms. for advertising its services) to Respect, Nor did the campaign conform to a model and an entrée into the Bradford business imposed from above by the Respect party community. For the first time, according organisation. The national party was weak to an old Respect hand, ‘we had enough

THE BRADFORD EARTHQUAKE 29 The Democratic Audit was the product of the repressed, pent- up political energies of Bradford West that had been ill-served by a machine- dominated local Labour Party that was not interested in political debate and seemed to embody mediocrity and hierarchy. The other big parties were not attractive options, for several reasons – principally the unpopularity of the coalition government in urban communities like Bradford, but partly also the dereliction of their own local structures in Bradford West and the Conservatives’ past reliance on communal voting for Muslim candidates rather than winning political arguments. Many of the key Respect election workers, such as Naweed Hussain,

Derelict building in money to run a proper campaign’. were Labour members until the selection Manningham As well as money, local businesses meeting. Shortly after the selection supported the campaign in other ways meeting Galloway approached Hussain such as by providing services such as and said, ‘We don’t have a campaign team. printing and poster manufacture, and I hear you were in the campaign team the Respect campaign was, unusually for Marsha Singh – will you do the same for a party political campaign, promoted for us?’ The local Labour Party had not by shopkeepers to their customers. The been a suitable vehicle for the creativity extent of business interest in the campaign and political commitment of a more than was huge – Galloway could have filled up usually politically conscious constituency, his diary for weeks with the invitations and these energies flowed into a burst he received. ‘The Bradford business of two weeks of intense campaigning for community came to us, and paid for it’ said Respect. a Respect activist. Their motives, Respect The Respect campaign depended a lot on believed, were to get rid of the party-clan volunteers deciding themselves what to power structure and putting some money do, and therefore dependent on the skills towards the campaign was a reasonable and energy of those who came forward. investment from that point of view. To some extent this was channelled The secret ingredient of the Respect through the traditional election campaign campaign in Bradford West was machinery, and determined the pattern enthusiasm, rather than any campaigning of doorstep canvassing and leafleting. If technique or organisation. Although someone from a particular neighbourhood livelier than the other parties’ campaigns turned up and volunteered to do it, then in Bradford, and more successful in its use it was done; otherwise it might not be. of social media, there was actually little The pattern of activity in the white areas about the Respect campaign techniques of the seat in particular was therefore that broke new ground. a bit patchy, but probably more covered The exuberance of the Respect campaign than not as volunteers did walk in

THE BRADFORD EARTHQUAKE 30 The Democratic Audit from those areas too. The model of the Polish, despite the fact that most Poles campaign was to have a single centre are not eligible to vote in parliamentary rather than devoting organisational elections) on a banner. Other pro-Respect effort to establishing a set of ward or messages were painted onto walls. polling district committee rooms. Every Three aspects of the Respect campaign night at the centre there was a campaign drew particular attention. One was meeting based on the consensus-forming its success in its use of technology, and decision-making open meetings of particularly social media. This again was the Occupy campaign and the student part of the process of the undamming left. These often wore on well into the of the voluntary political activity that night, but gave volunteers a feeling of had been repressed by Bradford politics participation rather than command and in the past. The young Pakistani- control. Galloway reported on the day’s British population of Bradford West has activity and inspired the volunteers, considerable creative and intellectual while Naweed Hussain handled the talent within it, and much of the Respect administration and the allocation of the social media effort was pioneered by next day’s tasks. Many appreciated the locals who worked for IT departments liberation from a local Labour Party where of large corporations including banks. they had never been consulted about The Respect campaign caught on rapidly campaign strategy. The sudden death of on Facebook in particular (the page’s a prominent Respect supporter, Abu-bakr Likes count grew from 30 to 5,000 in a Rauf, while campaigning on 20 March, and little over a week), and supporters also his funeral, also forged emotional bonds turned with enthusiasm to Twitter and within Bradford Respect.21 the possibilities offered by BlackBerry Free participation was also apparent in and text messaging (the frontiers the extent of non-approved campaign between interpersonal communication activity that took place around Bradford and broadcasting seem to be dissolving). West. UK election law is based on the Messages could be disseminated more model of a campaign controlled by the rapidly than ever before, and this suited candidate’s agent, who authorises all the spontaneous, fast-moving nature of expenditure, but in the circumstances of Galloway’s campaign and the movement Bradford West this was difficult to enforce. that crystallised around it. It was also Supporters would engage in private instrumental in the success that the enterprise campaigning activities such as Respect campaign made of the opportunity producing banners without asking central presented by the candidates’ televised permission. In terms of campaign finance debate (see below). The only thing that law this was not a huge problem because was really new was the ‘Gallow-App’, an of the generous extra expenses limits for application for smart-phones that relayed by-elections, but in a general election press releases, speeches and news about context it might be onerous or even render campaign events and Galloway speeches results open to legal challenge. Banners direct to supporters and observers. were particularly popular in Bradford, with some freelance efforts cramming he second aspect of the Respect lots of policy (in English, Urdu and even campaign that was noteworthy was the youth of the activists involved, 21 Telegraph and Argus, 21 March 2012, p1; Guardian, T 4 April 2012. a rare mobilisation of youth political

THE BRADFORD EARTHQUAKE 31 The Democratic Audit commitment in the sphere of electoral is inadequate, as it is more accurate to politics. say that ‘Muslim women whose political contribution had previously been stifled The other was its sensitivity as to how used their social networks and their to campaign among Muslim women. knowledge of their communities to The answer seems fairly obvious – that help Respect’. What was done was not the best way of doing so was for women complicated, but it had obviously been campaigners to talk to other women, at impossible in the patriarchal, hierarchical school gates in the afternoon or in small model of politics usually practised in gatherings at people’s houses during Bradford West up until now. There is no the day. The campaign was particularly reason why other parties should not be keen on making contact with parents at able to learn from the Respect women’s primary school gates, sending two-person campaign. teams (mostly women) to talk at each of the 52 sites in the constituency. Galloway, at a rally on the last Sunday of the campaign, spoke directly about the Some times at the campaign centre were importance of women. Student Sumara Bi designated women-only to encourage Sultan told Helen Pidd: people who were diffident about engaging in political activity to come forward in ‘It’s something he said directly to the a comfortable setting.22 Galloway, with Asian men. He said: “You need to the freewheeling approach to political remember that women are half of your structure that characterised the campaign, power. If you are not going to let your appointed Beenash Faris as Women’s women get involved and stand by your Involvement Strategy Head on the basis side, you are taking away half of your of her having asked him an intelligent own strength”. I think that was a very question, and she and (then) party leader powerful speech.’23 Salma Yaqoob worked on this aspect of the While there was a certain amount of campaign. the Respect campaign which reflected The traditional assumption about a spontaneous, creative form of politics canvassing Asian households in Bradford there were also occasions when a much (and elsewhere) was that the head of the lower road was travelled. As Helen Pidd household would talk to the canvasser reported: and what he said would apply to all the [Galloway] caused outrage by sending members of the household: six ticks for out a letter addressed to ‘voters of the Labour (or whoever) on the basis of one Muslim faith and Pakistani heritage evening doorstep conversation. Talking to in Bradford West’ appearing to suggest multiple members of the same household he was somehow a ‘better’ Muslim on the doorstep is often a logistical and than Hussain. ‘God KNOWS who is etiquette challenge, and one may not Muslim. And he KNOWS who is not. receive fully frank answers from other Instinctively, so do you. Let me point household members in the presence of out to all the Muslim brothers and the patriarch anyway. In some ways sisters what I stand for,’ he wrote, the traditional language of describing giving a series of four reasons which political campaigns (‘Respect did this’) included ‘I, George Galloway, do not 22 Helen Pidd, Guardian, 4 April 2012, is much the fullest account of the role of women in the Respect campaign. 23 Guardian, 4 April 2012.

THE BRADFORD EARTHQUAKE 32 The Democratic Audit

drink alcohol and never have. Ask throughout the campaign gave people yourself if the other candidate in reason to believe that he was Muslim, this election can say that truthfully.’ for instance his use of terms such as ‘my Galloway has never converted to brother’, ‘ummah’ and ‘Allah’ in the way a Islam, though lots of his supporters in Muslim would. The mirror-image practice Bradford West appeared to be under the of using language susceptible to particular impression he had.24 Christian meanings is frequent among American religious conservatives. The innuendo about Imran Hussain is unmistakable, and unpleasant (and However, most of the leaflet campaign Respect supporters were even more so was more orthodox. The content was after the election, referring to him as designed to complement the word of ‘thirsty’ and ‘drowning his sorrows’). mouth enthusiasm in the Asian and Even among the many Labour supporters student areas with some messages with who were against Hussain, there was a more universal, political appeal. The sympathy for an essentially private matter content of the leaflet above (via www. being used against him in a sectarian electionleaflets.org) is standard left politics manner like this. However, the Respect – three national issues (cuts, NHS, tuition campaign felt that this was an appropriate fees), one international (troops out of response to provocation, in that a local Afghanistan) and one local (the Westfield religious leader (the Bradford Muslim Hole). community has a traditional role known as ‘pir’ – someone whose guidance is sought ‘Wastefield’ and the Odeon in an analogous way to higher Catholic Part of Bradford city centre consists of clergy, a phenomenon not found in many a gigantic hole in the landscape. East other cultures of Islam) had issued an of City Hall, south of the Midland Hotel opinion that it was a religious duty to vote there is an empty space, part of which is for the Muslim candidate in the election. a temporary park and part of which is a This itself was a sectarian statement fenced-off scar down to foundation level. It that it was reasonable to rebut, if not in appears on city centre maps as ‘Broadway the style in which Respect chose to do it. Shopping Centre, Estimated Completion The mention of alcohol was also perhaps 2008’ (or sometimes 2010). The hole in the a veiled reference to Singh’s incapacity, heart of Bradford has a long saga attached and a promise that Galloway would not to it. It has latterly been owned by the repeat that pattern. Galloway’s language Westfield corporation, who have promised

24 Helen Pidd, Guardian, 30 March 2012. to develop it as a shopping centre, and

THE BRADFORD EARTHQUAKE 33 The Democratic Audit

The Westfield site, Bradford August 2012

the tract of land was assembled by local The other local issue seized upon by developers working with the council. Respect was the derelict state of the With some irony, one of the buildings much-loved old Odeon building just west demolished to create the Hole was of the heart of the city. The Odeon, out Forster House, built by John Poulson of use since 2000, is currently wrapped with the co-operation of a past Labour in plastic, and seems in limbo between boss of Bradford, Eddie Newby, who went demolition and an expensive renewal to prison for his part in it. for who knows what. It is a fine site, looking down across the fanciful new The Hole symbolises a lot that has gone City Park, and there is another restored wrong with Bradford. It is a painful and cherished fun palace, the Alhambra, reminder of Bradford’s branch-line status just beside it. But the Odeon building within the region and even more within reflects, like the Hole, the sense that the UK – nobody outside the city seems Bradford is clapped-out and neglected. to care that the city is scarred, and Most Bradford (and West Yorkshire) nobody in the city seems to know what citizens who were teenagers in the 1960s to do about it. The Westfield connection and 1970s remember the Odeon and is a cruel reminder of the city aiming the ice rink with fond nostalgia, for a high and failing – that the Australian time when Bradford was a centre that developers of fashionable centres in pulled people in. The Odeon, perhaps Shepherd’s Bush and Stratford should particularly for working class whites, is a abandon dowdy Bradford seems all too symbol of lost glory.25 predictable. If one wanted an agitprop demonstration of the callous forces of

global capitalism and the ineptitude of 25 In September 2012 the Odeon was reprieved from local elites, one could not do much better demolition and the council announced its intention to develop the building using as much of the original than the Bradford Hole. And George structure as possible. See Irna Qureshi ‘Why Does Bradford Care So Much About a Derelict Cinema?’ Galloway knows a thing or two about how Guardian Northerner, 21 September 2012, http:// www.guardian.co.uk/uk/the-northerner/2012/sep/21/ to do agitprop. bradford-georgegalloway

THE BRADFORD EARTHQUAKE 34 The Democratic Audit

Odeon and Alhambra from the City Park, Bradford

4 The televised debate: the their local politicians as mediocre, and certainly did not have this impression second turning point shaken up by the debate.

The first question was to Imran Hussain, he BBC Yorkshire Sunday Politics about why thirteen years of Labour programme hosted a debate in their government had not delivered more for television studios on the final Friday T Bradford West. He answered rather of the campaign, for broadcast on Sunday haltingly, claiming improvements in public 25 March. Its importance was heightened services, and seemed to focus on somewhat by being the only occasion on which the low-intensity recitation of national Labour rival candidates met face to face, and messages and emphasising his local the only direct way of comparing and credentials. The next question, to Jackie contrasting the two main candidates – Whiteley about the Budget was met with Imran Hussain and, as was becoming a counter-intuitive claim that Osborne clear, George Galloway. had delivered ‘an amazing Budget’. The contrast was very much to Galloway’s Sunderland did not seem sure whether advantage. Galloway had been an MP Clegg was coming to Bradford and made a from 1987 to 2010 and even before that rote speech about national politics. Then it was known as a charismatic debater. came to Galloway, who was asked whether He was an experienced and powerful he was being an opportunist in fighting Parliamentary and media performer, the seat despite a lack of local connections. and even among his many detractors his He complained that he had got a nasty demolition of a US Senate subcommittee question compared to the others (which in summer 2005 lives on in legend. The he hadn’t – the presenter pressed each other candidates were all inexperienced of the candidates on a potential weak and seemed diminished by the direct point: Labour’s record, the Tory budget comparison with Galloway. Bradfordians and the Lib Dems’ irrelevance, as well as were already accustomed to thinking of Galloway’s non-local origins). But as soon

THE BRADFORD EARTHQUAKE 35 The Democratic Audit as he started speaking, he commanded but Hussain’s voice in the debate was attention in a way that the other faltering. candidates had not. He had a convincing One of the key messages of the Galloway response about his right to stand: campaign came over strongly in response This is a democratic election, I am a to Jeannette Sunderland trying to move democratic politician and I am entitled the debate to Bradford local issues: as to stand here. There is no blood test, Galloway himself said: everybody here came from somewhere, You can send a local councillor and I am entitled to put my hat into the to parliament, or you can send a ring. parliamentarian to parliament. He was electric compared to the other The debate exemplified how traditional candidates; he used language interestingly and social media can combine to and hit the local references (the Hole, increase the importance of key events the Odeon, the football club, shop in a campaign. Twenty years ago, the closures in the city centre), while the audience for the televised debate would others talked in standard politician- have been restricted to those who watched speak (‘a raft of policies’… ‘yes there are the regional Sunday Politics programme, issues that need addressing not empty a considerable number perhaps if the promises’… ‘significant progress while we campaign had already engaged the public were in government’…). The only tricky interest, but still restricted. It would moment for Galloway came when he was generate a limited amount of follow-up challenged (by the BBC presenter not by by word of mouth and from local press any of his rivals) about what the families reports. of the Yorkshire soldiers recently lost The media landscape in 2012 amplified would think about his attitude to the war; the effect of the televised debate. It was Galloway answered a less specific point available to view through the BBC i-Player by saying that some families who had lost and after that through clips available on their children supported withdrawal. YouTube (it can be seen at http://www. There was always a distance between youtube.com/watch?v=okKxC4ZNIqw). Marsha Singh and the Labour leadership, By August 2012 the YouTube clip of the illustrated by his vote against the Iraq debate had received 76,000 views.26 In war in 2003, which enabled left-wing 1992 conversations would have been along voters to reconcile voting Labour in the lines of ‘did you see…?’ while in 2012 Bradford West with opposition to the war. they were ‘go and see…’, and when that Hussain’s answers (‘I support getting rid conversation was by text, email, Twitter or of extremism wherever it may be’) closed Facebook it would usually include a link. off the possibility of this continuing. A While the leaders’ debates during the 2010 smarter campaign strategy would have general election were ‘event television’ in given him more leeway to diverge from that they attracted large audiences and national messages, stressing those of sparked discussion when broadcast, the interest to his potential constituents, effect of the Bradford debate reverberated just as in 2005 Labour MPs defending around local politics in the days after. university constituencies were allowed to go as off-message as they liked about 26 Galloway also had over 90,000 sign-ups to his tuition fees. He promised a ‘strong voice’ Facebook page and 90,000 Twitter followers.

THE BRADFORD EARTHQUAKE 36 The Democratic Audit 5 The outcome territory. The outcome, a 10,000 majority, was staggering and unexpected to all except a few of the most optimistic Respect he last few days of the by-election supporters and some members of the campaign took on the aspect of a always uncannily well-informed fraternity Galloway triumphal procession, with T of Bradford cab drivers. enthusiastic crowds following his bus tour. By polling day the Respect campaign Turnout in the by-election was a healthy team had enough volunteers to provide a 50.8 per cent, a modest 14.8 percentage full-scale telling operation with relays of point drop since 2010 which compares people at all the polling stations in every favourably with most of the other by- ward of the constituency. They estimate elections so far this parliament. that about 500 people were involved by the The by-election result is shown overleaf. end of the campaign, and the party had A couple of columns on the table may about 300 members. need explanation. ‘Change on 2010 %’ is the straightforward percentage-point loss There was little suspense at the count, just or gain from the 2010 general election. a sudden change from one near-certainty ‘Vote retention rate %’ is a less standard to another for most of the press and measure. It is the by-election numerical candidates. At 9.50pm the Conservatives vote expressed as a percentage of that were telling journalists that Galloway party’s vote in the 2010 election. Below might have done enough for second. At 100 per cent means the party’s actual vote 10.05pm Labour admitted that they had has fallen, which often happens in by- been squeezed. Postal votes had been elections because turnout is lower. expected to run strongly for Labour – indeed, some Respect supporters report Officially published results do not break being taunted during the campaign by down the distribution of the vote in the Labour claims that they had 7,000 postal different wards of the constituency, votes in the bag. When the postal ballots but the parties keep informal tallies were opened after 10.10pm Respect were at the count. Because Labour were so well ahead, and when the ballot boxes shell-shocked by what was happening, from polling stations were tipped out it and Respect so inexperienced, the tally was clear that Galloway would win a huge estimates are perhaps a bit unreliable victory. The plans for Ed Miliband to for Bradford West, but the broad pattern come to Bradford were quickly scrapped seemed relatively clear. Respect, as (he came back rather later, to listen one would expect with such a massive rather than to celebrate). At midnight majority, won across the board and were Labour were conceding, and Galloway probably ahead in every single ward. arrived to do what proved to be victory According to their own tallies, the closest interviews. The streets of central Bradford call was in Manningham where the vote were thronged into the early hours with was something like 50 per cent Respect, celebrating young Respect supporters. 45 per cent Labour; Respect blamed the Respect had thought (but not quite dared continuing strength of the clan system wholeheartedly to believe) that they would in Manningham for the closeness of the win, and felt that they would either win or, result. They won by wipe-out majorities less probably, lose by a majority of about in City and even in Imran Hussain’s ward 5,000 rather than squeak into recount of Toller, and by nearly two to one against

THE BRADFORD EARTHQUAKE 37 The Democratic Audit

Bradford West by-election result, 2012 Party Candidate Votes % vote Change on Vote retention 2010 % rate % Respect Galloway, George 18,341 55.9 +52.8 1473.2 Labour Hussain, Imran 8,201 25.0 -20.4 44.6 Conservative Whiteley, Jackie 2,746 8.4 -22.8 21.7 Lib Dem Sunderland, Jeannette 1,505 4.6 -7.1 31.8 UKIP McNally, Sonja 1,085 3.3 +1.3 133.6 Green Islam, Dawud 481 1.5 -0.9 51.2 Dem Nat Craig, Neil 344 1.0 -0.0 78.5 Loony Hope, Howling Laud 111 0.3 - -

Turnout variations within Bradford West Ward turnout on Estimated ward Lowest PD on Highest PD on the day % turnout with postal the day turnout % the day turnout % votes % City 35 49 11 53 Clayton & Fairweather 30 38 19 42 Green Heaton 45 57 39 50 Manningham 51 63 38 63 Thornton & Allerton 26 38 18 31 Toller 51 61 44 55

Labour in the white wards, where what area had high turnout. was left of the Conservative vote could be In the constituency as a whole Labour’s found. performance was easily the party’s worst Turnout in the by-election was not evenly in the 2010 parliament and the vote drop distributed. Very unusually, given the was on a similar scale to those at the general relationship between turnout and unpopular tail end of the party’s spell in income, education and home ownership, it government. was high in the least affluent areas of the Obscured by the Labour disaster, Bradford constituency in Manningham and Toller, West was also a pasting for the coalition and lowest in the suburban and semi- parties, particularly the Conservatives. rural areas in Thornton and Clayton. The The drop in the combined coalition politics of the by-election clearly did not parties vote share was very large - 29.9 interest white suburban Bradford electors per cent. In most by-elections so far this very much. However, the more normal parliament the drop has been between 11 pattern of ethnic minority, poor and young and 15 percentage points, with Bradford people feeling that electoral politics does beating Barnsley Central (22.2 per cent) not address their concerns occurs very as the by-election showing the biggest fall frequently with only the most perfunctory in coalition support. While the Liberal comment about it. Democrats have always been weak in Despite the momentum of the Respect Bradford West, other than a post-Iraq campaign among young people, flicker in Manningham, there was a the turnout in the polling districts substantial and stable Conservative vote immediately around Bradford University in Bradford West for decades, which and Bradford College was low, although suddenly disappeared in the by-election. areas just to the west of the university

THE BRADFORD EARTHQUAKE 38 The Democratic Audit

Labour performance in by-elections 2010-12 Lab vote share Lab vote retention rate % change % Oldham East and Saddleworth January 2011 +10.2 103.8 Barnsley Central March 2011 +13.4 84.2 Leicester South May 2011 +11.4 92.0 Inverclyde June 2011 -2.3 72.0 Feltham and Heston December 2011 +10.8 59.6 Bradford West March 2012 -20.4 44.6

Conservative performance in by-elections 2010-12 Con vote share Con vote retention rate % change % Oldham East and Saddleworth January 2011 -13.6 38.1

Barnsley Central March 2011 -9.1 31.3 Leicester South May 2011 -6.5 51.4 Inverclyde June 2011 -2.1 61.8 Feltham and Heston December 2011 -6.3 39.0 Bradford West March 2012 -22.8 21.7

Lib Dem performance in by-elections 2010-12 Lib Dem vote share Lib Dem vote retention change % rate % Oldham East and Saddleworth January 2011 +0.3 79.2 Barnsley Central March 2011 -13.1 15.8 Leicester South May 2011 -4.7 60.7 Inverclyde June 2011 -11.2 12.5 Feltham and Heston December 2011 -7.9 20.5 Bradford West March 2012 -7.1 31.8

The Conservative vote suffered severe variations on ‘Bradford West proves what losses in several directions – to abstention, I have been saying all along was right reflecting the sense that Bradford West because…’; some of the best writing was politics simply wasn’t about the white from David Goodhart in Prospect who had suburbs; to Galloway in order to defeat studied and written about Bradford and Labour and to make the same sort of its ethnic complexities before.27 The final points about Bradford politics that other section of this report will, hopefully with voters were concerned about; and also the a little more of the perspective afforded withdrawal of the resources the party had by hindsight, try to draw out a number in 2010. In that election the constituency of conclusions. But the by-election was had been designated a target seat and only the first part of a political drama in received Ashcroft money, and the party two acts; no sooner had the curtain fallen had tried to mobilise biraderi and Islamic on the by-election than the local election votes. In the 2012 by-election it did not campaign started, with Labour and attempt to compete. Respect fighting once again for the votes of the people of inner city Bradford. Immediately after the by-election there were many attempts, mostly by baffled 27 David Goodhart ‘Making Sense of Bradford West’ Labour people, to divine the meaning Prospect, 4 April 2012, http://www.prospectmagazine. co.uk/magazine/george-galloway-bradford-west-bloc- of Bradford West. Many of these were voting-labour-ethnic-minority/

THE BRADFORD EARTHQUAKE 39 The Democratic Audit C THE MAY 2012 Council elections

1 The May 2012 council lack of infrastructure and candidates in place, and the anarchic political elections in Bradford style of the movement, meant that it was about volunteering as much as any efore the by-election had shaken up party choice, although the party tried politics in the city, Bradford appeared to vet potential candidates, many of Bto be almost guaranteed to change them unknown before the campaign. to Labour overall Respect stood 12 candidates in Bradford, control. The party five in the West constituency (every had 43 seats out ward but Toller), four in East (Bolton of 90, and the & Undercliffe, Bowling & Barkerend, seats coming up Bradford Moor, Little Horton) and three for election had in South (Great Horton, Tong, Wyke). last been fought The situation in Toller was complicated. in 2008, Labour’s Respect certainly wanted to stand a worst year in candidate, but two prospective nominees recent times in dropped out and the third missed the metropolitan deadline for returning the nomination borough elections. papers to the council elections office by a The four net gains28 few minutes, and was therefore ineligible appeared easy – a to stand.29 repeat of the results The slate of candidates had eight in 2006, 2007 or 2010, when Labour had people of Asian origin and four white not done particularly well, would have candidates. Dawud Islam (a Muslim been more than enough. But the arrival English white man), the Green Party of Respect as a serious political force in candidate in the Bradford West Bradford threatened Labour in many seats by-election, contested Clayton & the party had banked upon to gain control. Fairweather Green this time for Respect, There were only a handful of days between and the other white candidates also the by-election result and the close of stood in wards with the largest white nominations for the local elections. populations (Tong, Thornton & Allerton, Given the scale of the by-election win, Wyke). Three candidates were women, there was obvious potential for Respect and nine were men. However, the candidates to gain council seats but the Respect slate was importantly diverse

28 Relative to the position in 2008; Imdad Hussain of Heaton ward had been elected as Labour but was 29 Respect threatened legal action against the suspended by the party in April 2012 and sat as an council, but the election officers could not legally have Independent. done other than to disallow a late nomination.

THE BRADFORD EARTHQUAKE 40 The Democratic Audit in some respects, as it included Asian 2 The council election candidates from outside the dominant currents of Bradford Labour politics results analysed such as Ruqayyah Collector (a Gujarati n total, Respect gained five seats, woman) in City ward, the ward with electing councillors in City, Heaton the most plural Asian community. The and Manningham wards in Bradford Respect candidates won favourable notices I West plus Bradford Moor as well for their calibre. They each recorded as Little Horton in Bradford East. a short film clip, and these clips show Compared to 2008, these were three most of the candidates to be articulate Labour losses (City, Little Horton, people with a strong message about local Manningham) and Tory (Heaton) and politics.30 Their mini-biographies also Lib Dem (Bradford Moor) seats that had show that many of them have been active previously looked like Labour gains that in the voluntary sector and some to have were in the bag. While Labour did make experience of working professionally for some gains from Conservative relative local authorities, charities and community to 2008 (Bowling & Barkerend, Clayton campaigns. They lacked experience of & Fairweather Green, Keighley East, elected office (the only marginal exception Keighley West, Toller) and Lib Dem being Dawud Islam who had been on a (Windhill & Wrose), it was not enough. Town Council and fought a parliamentary Labour elected a new leader, Dave seat, Brent South in 1997). Green, to replace Ian Greenwood and The council elections attracted renewed the pact with the Greens that considerable regional and national media had enabled a Labour administration attention, with reporting focused on the in Bradford since May 2010. Perhaps Little Horton ward. 31 This is an inner surprisingly, given his crushing defeat city ward just south of the city centre, in Bradford West, Imran Hussain was bordering on the West constituency re-elected Deputy Leader. but actually in East, and the contest Overall, Respect polled 35.2 per cent was particularly important because the in the wards the party contested, with Labour council leader Ian Greenwood was its strongest showings being in the defending the seat. Little Horton kept inner city Bradford West wards of people guessing until the very end of the Manningham (57.5 per cent) and City count; it was close enough for several (56.1 per cent). Respect also polled recounts before a final result. Greenwood very well in inner city Asian areas was defeated by a margin of 17 votes of the other two city constituencies, by Respect candidate Alyas Karmani. reasonably in the white areas of Greenwood’s loss meant that Labour was Bradford West and more poorly in the stuck on 45 seats out of 90, not enough white working class wards it contested for overall control. It seemed a fitting in Bradford South. cliff-hanger ending to Bradford’s strange political season. The evidence of the Bradford local elections is that Respect has a baseline of support somewhere around 10 per 30 http://www.salmayaqoob.com/2012/04/bradford- respect-local-election.html http://www.youtube.com/ cent among the white population in watch?v=RGWKVMJiwSw Bradford, which is substantial by the 31 http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2012/may/02/ george-galloway-respect-hopefuls-bradford standards of previous parties standing

THE BRADFORD EARTHQUAKE 41 The Democratic Audit

Bradford council election results by ward since 2004 to the left of Labour. After that, its 32 2004c 2004b 2004a 2006 2007 2008 2010 2011 2012 support is closely correlated with the WEST proportion of the population who reported City Con Con Lab Lab Lab Lab Lab Lab Res their ethnicity as British-Pakistani in the Clayton & FG Con Con Con Con Lab Con Lab Lab Lab 2001 Census. Using a pretty crude formula Heaton Con Green Con Con Lab Con Lab Lab Res to model the Respect vote in wards Manningham Con Lab LD Lab LD Lab Lab Lab Res where the party did not stand (12+0.9*P, Thornton & All Con Con Con Con Con Con Con Con Con where P is the Pakistani proportion of Toller Con Lab Con Lab Lab Con Lab Lab Lab the population), it is clear that Respect would have won Toller ward (69 per EAST cent predicted) if it had a candidate, and Bolton & Uclf LD LD LD LD LD LD LD LD LD would have had a very decent chance in Bowling & Bark LD Con LD Con Con Con Lab Lab Lab Bradford Moor LD Lab LD Lab Lab LD Lab Lab Res Keighley Central (41 per cent predicted Eccleshill Lab LD LD LD LD LD Lab Lab LD vote, although it is debatable whether the Idle & Thackley LD LD LD LD LD LD LD LD LD formula would work outside the core city). Little Horton Lab Lab Lab Lab Lab Lab Lab Lab Res The relationship with ethnicity is almost certainly stronger than it was in the SOUTH Parliamentary by-election. Great Horton Lab Con Lab Lab Lab Lab Lab Lab Lab Queensbury Con Con Con BNP BNP Con BNP BNP Con The strongest increases in turnout Royds Lab Lab Lab Lab Lab Lab Lab Lab Lab were in two wards in the Bradford East Tong Lab Lab Lab Lab Lab Lab Lab Lab Lab constituency won by Respect, namely Wibsey BNP Lab Lab Lab Lab Lab Lab Lab Lab Bradford Moor (+17.4 percentage points) Wyke Lab BNP Lab Lab Lab Lab Lab Lab Lab and the key contest in Little Horton (+8.1 points) where they unseated council leader KEIGHLEY Ian Greenwood. While turnout in the Craven Con Con Con Con Con Con Con Con Ind Bradford West wards was narrowly the Ilkley Con Con Con Con Con Con Con Con Con highest (39.1 per cent, down 3.2 on 2011), Keighley Cent Lab Lab Lab Lab Con Lab Lab Lab Lab it rose across Bradford East (38.2 per cent, Keighley East Con Con Lab Lab Lab Con Lab Lab Lab up 2.1 on 2011). There was some sense Keighley West Lab Lab BNP Lab Lab Con Lab Lab Lab among pro-Respect voters in particular Worth Valley BNP Con Con Con Con Con Con Con Con that people who lived outside the West

SHIPLEY constituency had missed out on something Baildon Con LD LD Con Con LD Con Con Con important in March. Bingley Con Con Con Con Con Con Con Con Con Comparing the wards making up Bradford Bingley Rural Con Con Con Con Con Con Con Con Con West to their turnout in the by-election, Shipley Green Green Green Green Green Green Green Green Green there was a clear pattern. Turnout Wharfedale Con Con Con Con Con Con Con Con Con plunged in Toller ward by between 14 Windhill & Wrs Lab Lab Lab Lab LD LD Lab Lab Lab and 22 percentage points in every polling The Respect effect on turnout, Bradford council district, with the steepest drops at the elections 2012 Girlington end of the seat. The lack of a Wards 2011 % 2012 % Change % Respect candidate in the May elections Respect contested 12 37.7 38.6 +0.9 was the main factor driving this change. Core city – no 5 36.1 25.8 -10.3 Turnout also fell in most areas across the Respect in 2012 Other urban 8 43.3 37.0 -6.3 32 The R-squared is 0.87, a very close correlation for Rural 5 46.3 37.5 -8.8 any social science measure.

THE BRADFORD EARTHQUAKE 42 The Democratic Audit

Respect vote by City 56.1 ward, May 2012 Clayton & FG 21.0 Colours indicate winning party in May 2012. First five Heaton 39.6 wards Bradford West, then Manningham 57.5 four Bradford East, then three Bradford South. Thornton & All 18.0

Respect Bolton & Undercliffe 13.7

Labour Bowling & Barkerend 34.1 42.1 Conservative Bradford Manor Little Horton 47.8 LibDem Great Horton 32.4

Tong 16

Wyke 8.8

Respect vote % 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 May 2012

Respect vote and British-Pakistani population, May 2012 constituency by around 4-6 percentage points. The exceptions were among the 70 British-Pakistani population, 2001 % most middle class areas of Bradford West – Thornton and Clayton villages, plus

60 Frizinghall (part of the Heaton ward). The political context in May was different – the Conservatives were a serious factor as

50 they were defending all three wards, and although they lost Clayton & Fairweather Green to Labour and Heaton to Respect. 40 Conservative-inclined electors who had sat out the contest between Labour and Galloway at Parliamentary level had some 30 cause to vote in the council elections. Respect, although the party clearly motivated more electors to come to the 20 polls, drew the largest single part of its support from former Labour supporters. Other parties made a smaller contribution 10 – it attracted the bulk of the previous Green vote but also seems to have gained converts from people who would otherwise 0 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 have voted Conservative or Liberal Respect vote % May 2012 Democrat.

The Respect effect on party fortunes, Bradford council elections 2012 Con Lab LD Green 2012 % Change 2012 % Change 2012 % Change 2012 % Change 11/12 % 11/12 % 11/12 % 11/12 % Respect contested (12) 10.9 -10.1 37.6 -21.1 12.5 -1.6 1.0 -4.1 No Respect candidate (18) 32.5 -6.4 37.8 +1.1 14.3 +1.6 8.2 +0.2

THE BRADFORD EARTHQUAKE 43 The Democratic Audit

Manningham ward in the 2004 council elections Candidate Party Vote % of valid ballots Mirza, Mohammed Ishrat Lib Dem 2,415 34.9 ELECTED Rangzeb, Choudhary Lab 2,104 30.4 ELECTED Khan, Reis Con 1,810 26.1 ELECTED Hussain, Raza Ghalib Con 1,731 25.0 Rooney, Susanne Lab 1,700 24.6 Hussain, Shabir Lab 1,637 23.6 Sehgal, Mohammed Rafiq Lib Dem 1,596 23.1 Miah, Mohammed Ashraf Con 1,198 17.3 Islam, Mohammed Shafiq-Ul Lib Dem 1,150 16.6

In contrast to the history of the undue influence that this format allowed. parliamentary seat, recent local elections During the by-election campaign in 2012, in Bradford West have seen huge both Galloway and the Conservatives variations. In the 2004 elections, where (honourably, given the party’s local every seat was up for election because misconduct in 2005) made efforts to warn of boundary changes, the Conservatives against voting fraud and make it clear had the largest share of representation that people had a right to cast their vote in in the wards making up Bradford West, private. Although there were murmurings with 13 out of 18 councillors (to three during the by-election campaign, and Labour, one Lib Dem and one Green). Respect were always suspicious of Labour, The Conservatives won two of the three there appears to have been no large-scale seats in City, and had representation in voting fraud on that occasion. every ward in 2004. Labour recovered ground on the Although as early as 2004 Labour’s city council in 2007, depriving the dominance in Bradford West council Conservatives of their majority of elections had collapsed it was more representation, and consolidated in 2010 because the networks of influence within and 2011. There was some sense that in the community were hedging their the core of Asian Bradford West (City, bets and gaining footholds within the Manningham, Toller, Heaton) that party Conservative and Lib Dem groups on the labels were flags of convenience and council. In Manningham, for instance, that although there was nominal change there were massive variations in the vote the essential style of politics – clan- for each candidate in 2004 and a neat based, clientelistic and non-ideological arrangement in which one from each of – remained the same. Voting Respect in the three main parties was elected: 2012 was a way of breaking with this pattern. To Respect’s most dedicated Something unusual was clearly going supporters, mainstream Westminster on. The recorded turnout was 66.5 per party politics itself had become nothing cent, an astronomical figure for a local more than a more sophisticated version of election. The 2004 local elections in the mediocre and self-interested world of Bradford, as in the rest of Yorkshire & politics as usual in Bradford West. The Humber, took place using all postal voting, and there was much concern about the possibilities for fraud and

THE BRADFORD EARTHQUAKE 44 The Democratic Audit 3 Bradford Council: the An alternative possibility is offered by what happened after a large Respect future group was elected to Tower Hamlets council in 2006. There were large- hile they did not manage to obtain scale defections, mostly to Labour but the balance of power in 2012, also oddly to the Conservatives, and WRespect are now a group on the the party was discredited as much by council with 5 members and they have what happened to it in the local power reasonable hopes of winning enough wards structure as anything Galloway did or in the 2014 elections to deprive Labour failed to do in the years before 2010. of overall control and become the third l Triumph is often followed by disaster largest party group, overtaking the Lib in the history of small parties, and Dems. A repeat of the 2012 elections, but it came quickly to pass for Respect with a Respect candidate in Toller, would in summer 2012. Galloway’s defence leave Labour with 39 seats, well short of of Julian Assange alienated many a majority even with the 3 Greens, facing women, and pro-feminist men, who 11 Respect, 9 Lib Dem, 25 Conservatives had rallied behind Respect. First and 3 Independents. To do better than Kate Hudson their candidate in this, Labour would need to win wards from the Manchester Central by-election the Tories and Lib Dems that it could not resigned, and then even more manage in 2012 (and only one of which, damagingly party leader Salma Eccleshill, had previously gone Labour in Yaqoob left too. The foundations of 2011), or regain ground from Respect. Bradford Respect do not appear to There are several factors, other than of have been shaken too badly, as it course national politics, that may affect is both Galloway’s own stronghold how council politics evolves in Bradford up and also – as should be clear from to and beyond 2014. the foregoing analysis – Bradford Respect has an organisational life l The record of the Respect councillors. distinct from Galloway’s personal The five councillors elected in 2012 presence. Galloway was in many are, as a small opposition group on the ways the instrument of strong council, not in a position to achieve political trends within Bradford, the fundamental change to the way not the decisive actor himself, and Bradford politics, and the council, having made the breakthrough it is operates, but they have a platform in quite possible to imagine him giving addition to that occupied by Galloway. way, more willingly or less so, to a The council group and Galloway’s Respect successor. Alyas Karmani and constituency work are integrated Ruqayyah Collector are both plausible through having Ruqayyah Collector parliamentary candidates. as a constituency worker (this pattern is far from unusual in Bradford). If l But perhaps the decisive factor is the councillors are able to offer their how Bradford Labour responds to its constituents service, keep out of the humiliation. ‘We gave you a big kick networks of influence and mutual up the arse,’ a voter told a Labour benefit, and articulate an alternative councillor, ‘and we’re waiting to see vision, they could be a lasting force. how you shape up.’ The task of getting

THE BRADFORD EARTHQUAKE 45 The Democratic Audit

the Labour Party in Bradford fit for purpose is a stiff one. Its culture has been off-putting to voters and antithetical to Labour values, but if it is to remain the principal party of Bradford it needs to reform and renew itself radically. If Labour fails, the best case alternative, despite the gaudy national difficulties that Respect has faced, is that Respect puts down strong roots and maintains at least some of its open political culture in the city. If both Labour and Respect fail, the future of politics in Bradford could be grim indeed.

THE BRADFORD EARTHQUAKE 46 The Democratic Audit D THE MEANING OF BRADFORD WEST

1 ‘The most sensational in November 1926 (with the incumbent Liberal MP switching to Labour, who result’: Bradford and had not previously fought the seat), and other by-elections Mitcham and Liverpool Edge Hill in March 1923 (although in Edge Hill the n the podium at the declaration in swing is a bit illusory as there was no Bradford, George Galloway declared Labour candidate in 1922 and no Liberal Oit ‘the most sensational result in in 1923). Only the Labour intervention British by-election history, bar none’.33 It to win Mitcham on a 34.5 per cent swing was in the circumstances understandable from Conservative is really comparable. hyperbole, but there have been bigger A few lesser swings are also worthy of swings and bigger shocks in the past. note as historic by-elections, particularly Swings between the two main UK parties the Plaid Cymru gain in Carmarthen have not taken place on quite this scale (July 1966), the first SDP outing since before 1945; the nearest to this (Warrington, July 1981), its first gain was the Labour gain in Dudley West in (Crosby, November 1981) and of course the December 1994 (29.1 per cent swing) and grandfather of Liberal by-election wins, the largest swing to Conservative was at Orpington (March 1962). Many of these Walsall North in November 1976 (22.6 per big by-election changes, like Bradford, also cent swing). had relatively high turnout. Mitcham in 1923 saw a massive 13.5 percentage point Even in the turbulent periods of party surge in turnout, a development associated politics before 1945 30-point swings in with the then-new campaign technique of by-elections were rare. The picture is mass canvassing.34 Christchurch in 1993 confused by the major party electoral truce was the apotheosis of the Chris Rennard in wartime; if one takes the 1935 Labour style of Lib Dem by-election campaigning. vote as a baseline for the Independent vote the swing even in the wartime by-elections Bradford West therefore certainly only exceeded 30 per cent once (Wallasey, belongs in the top ten by-election shocks April 1942). Between 1922 and 1939 since 1945, and probably in the top five there were four Labour breakthroughs on although Orpington, Hamilton, Lincoln more than 30 per cent swings: Liverpool and Bermondsey can all claim to have Wavertree in January 1935 (although seen larger movements of opinion or more on that occasion the Conservative vote consequential results or both. Orpington was split in the by-election), Hull Central and Lincoln foreshadowed national

34 Chris Cook ‘By-elections of the first Labour 33 http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/9175133/ government’, p38 in Chris Cook & John Ramsden (eds) George-Galloway-wins-Bradford-West-by-election.html By-elections in British Politics London: UCL Press, 1997.

THE BRADFORD EARTHQUAKE 47 The Democratic Audit

Thirty-point plus swings in by-elections since 1945, in order of swing Winner Insurgent party Defending party Other major party Turnout % Change in vote change % vote change % vote change % turnout % Bermondsey Feb 1983 Liberal +50.9 -37.5 -19.4 57.7 -1.6

Lincoln Mar 1973 Dem Lab +58.2* -27.7 -21.5 72.6 -1.9 Hamilton Nov 1967 SNP +46.0* -29.7 -16.3 73.7 +0.4 Bradford West Mar 2012 Respect +52.8 -20.4 -22.4 50.8 -14.8 Christchurch Jul 1993 Lib Dem +38.6 -32.1 -9.4 74.2 -6.5 Glasgow Govan Nov 1988 SNP +38.4 -27.9 -8.2 Lib 60.2 -13.2 Torrington Mar 1958 Liberal +38.0* -27.7 -10.4 80.6 +11.4 Sutton and Cheam Dec 1972 Liberal +39.0 -26.2 -18.6 56.2 -11.3 Liverpool Edge Hill Mar 1979 Liberal +36.8 -28.1 -11.4 57.2 -4.0 Birmingham Ladywood June 1969 Liberal +30.6 -33.4 -0.6 51.9 -7.8 Isle of Ely July 1973 Liberal +38.3 -24.9 -13.4 65.8 -6.1

(* indicates a party that won despite not standing in the previous general election)

political realignments, although the title major force (Mitcham 1923, Orpington of ‘the most sensational result’ probably 1962 and Hamilton 1967 undeniably, and really belongs to Winnie Ewing’s SNP arguably Sutton 1972 and Crosby 1981 triumph in Hamilton in 1967. as well). By 1973, Liberal and SNP by- The swing in Hamilton was larger than election wins were part of the landscape of Bradford (36.8 per cent), Hamilton saw the political expectations and could no longer arrival of the SNP as a serious political be measured in the same scale. force and it has not been without an MP More usually, the snapping of normal since then; before Hamilton the prospect of party loyalties is a local phenomenon. a Scottish Parliament election was remote This is generally the case with extreme and the prospect of an SNP majority by-elections and with those constituency seemed ridiculous. Hamilton restructured general election results rather resembling Scottish politics, caused both main UK by-elections in terms of large swing and parties to adjust their policies in the next their singular nature including: seven years, and might ultimately prove to l Hammersmith North, 1945 have been the first step towards Scottish independence. Bradford was a big deal, l Merthyr Tydfil, 1970 but not quite that big.35 l Antrim North, 1970 (arguably a wider In order for a huge swing to an political realignment) independent candidate or a minor party l Blyth, February 1974 to take place, there first needs to be l Lincoln, February 1974 a fracturing of the voters’ loyalty to their usual party. Normal government l Isle of Wight, February 1974 unpopularity is not usually enough to do l Tatton, 1997 the trick. l Falkirk West, 1999 (Scottish A few occasions involve the early stages Parliament) of a wider political realignment that sees l a minor party break through to being a Wyre Forest, 2001 l Blaenau Gwent, 2005 35 See also Chris Cook & John Ramsden (eds), By- elections in British Politics, London, UCL Press, 1997. l Belfast East, 2010

THE BRADFORD EARTHQUAKE 48 The Democratic Audit

The London Mayor election in 2000, won the community before the votes were by Ken Livingstone as an Independent, is cast. Bradford West was rather similar to also part of the pattern. In these unusual these Welsh valleys seats in this respect. elections there is often an element of Bradford campaigners reported that popular dissatisfaction with the process or discussions among Asian families had the outcome, or both, of the main party’s an unusual dynamic in the by-election; selection process. This is if anything more that the senior family members accepted of a theme than government unpopularity, that the young Respect enthusiasts had although that plays a part in many of the a point and that the concerns they were by-election reverses as well. highlighting (locally and internationally) had been neglected too long. Young In Hammersmith, Merthyr, Lincoln, Blyth, Falkirk and Blaenau Gwent voters people were persuading their parents and swung behind local candidates who argued grandparents in some households. that they had been unfairly treated by the In order to lose a by-election on a massive local party selection. In Liverpool Edge swing, the main party needs one or more Hill and Bermondsey Labour selection of the following conditions to apply: disputes were part of the reason for 1. Badly flawed local selection procedure Liberal victories. In Bermondsey there was a double revolt, against the new Labour 2. Huge unpopularity at national level left and Peter Tatchell that had taken over 3. Beginnings of a political realignment the constituency and against the old-style Christchurch in 1993 was an almost pure Labour leadership of Southwark council case of (2) for the Conservatives; Blyth in exemplified by former MP Bob Mellish and 1974 was an almost pure case of (1) for unsuccessful ‘Real Bermondsey Labour’ Labour. Hamilton and Orpington were by-election candidate John O’Grady. mostly (3) with elements of (2). What was In three more cases the MP was the Bradford West? subject of allegations about their conduct (Isle of Wight, Tatton, Belfast East). In One can rule out condition (2) for Glasgow Govan (both times) the Labour Bradford West – Labour were ahead in candidate performed poorly in the by- the polls, not miles behind, in March election campaign and voters complained 2012. Labour nationally were not hated that Labour locally was practising an in the way that the party was in 1968, unappealing style of machine politics. or the Conservatives were in 1995, but it is reasonable to note that the whole Some of these massive swings have taken structure of party politics has fallen place in a political environment where into more disrepute than it had on those there is discussion and deliberation occasions, and even the more popular of among the voters, to a greater degree the two main parties suffers a weakening than normal, and a cohesive community of its grip on the electorate in those at the core of the constituency. In places circumstances. such as Merthyr Tydfil and Blaenau Gwent, close-knit communities in which The relationship between local and more politics had always been more about general factors, and between a one-off set solidarity than doorstep campaigning, of circumstances during the selection and people moved in large numbers because election and wider possibilities of political a collective decision had been taken in change, requires some analysis.

THE BRADFORD EARTHQUAKE 49 The Democratic Audit 2 WHAT CAUSED THE BRADFORD troubles, their hopes and fears.36 EARTHQUAKE? As well as the injury suffered by the main political parties from their rejection in Bradford West, there was the insult to Disaffection those parties involved when the voters he most common explanation offered chose George Galloway. There are few in the national press immediately things that unite the main parties, and the Tafter the by-election was that it was journalistic and political establishment, largely about popular alienation and as much as dislike of Galloway, and it disaffection with politics and the political would be foolish to imagine that voters in establishment. This was a perception Bradford did not know this. They knew, shared across most of the spectrum. Max and felt this was one of the good things Hastings wrote in the Daily Mail to try about Galloway. Because the sources of to explain the Galloway win; strip out the the attacks on Galloway’s politics and boilerplate partisan criticism and the rest personality were themselves so tainted is pretty much common ground: and distrusted, they were discounted – and even if negative material about The immediate answer is that he fought Galloway was believed, it was thought Bradford West as standard-bearer less important than the many negative for British Muslims in a constituency things about politics as a whole. ‘My with a large Muslim population. Next, enemy’s enemy is my friend’ and for the confidence in the Labour Party, usual voters the power structure in Bradford holders of the Bradford seat, has hit and Westminster was the main enemy. rock bottom. And supporting Galloway did not Ed Miliband is regarded by most of his involve embracing a set of values that Shadow Cabinet colleagues, never mind were abhorrent – international Islamic Labour voters at large, as less credible solidarity, socialism and frustrated pride than a Greek economic bailout. Indeed, in Bradford were all mainstream ideas in you would find a lot more Labour Bradford West. voters willing to put their savings into This is an important contrast with the drachmas than to believe Miliband will limited minor party success enjoyed ever be Prime Minister. But beyond by the BNP, whose appeal is limited this partisan issue, almost everybody because ethnic minorities are excluded, interested in British politics agrees and because racism and violence are not that there is a much more deeply- mainstream acceptable values among rooted malaise, afflicting every party whites. Voting BNP may be a blunt and indeed almost every institution in insult to the major parties, but it is Britain. not something many people can do no matter how cross they are (as the BNP’s There is a collapse of trust in those in relative failure even in the propitious charge, and especially in our politicians, circumstances of the 2009 European which should thoroughly alarm all who elections demonstrates). A better care about democracy. Voters look at comparison is probably with the appeal of Westminster, and see government in UKIP (see below). the hands of people who seem to care 36 Max Hastings, ‘The week politics all but died of nothing about their opinions, their shame’ Daily Mail, 31 March 2012.

THE BRADFORD EARTHQUAKE 50 The Democratic Audit It was the Muslims wot won it37 How can Muslims complain about our rights, our freedoms, our collective A step beyond the standard ‘anti- future, if we aren’t engaged in the establishment’ explanation was offered, political process across the board as predictably enough, by Daily Mail commentator Melanie Phillips, who opined active British citizens? We have an that: obligation, as Britons and as Muslims, to fully participate in local and national This [disaffection] is certainly part debates and not to stand idly by. of the story – strikingly, a significant section of the Tory vote appears to have We have allowed ourselves to be defined gone to Galloway – but it is not the only by foreign policy and, in particular, key factor behind this torrid triumph by events in the Middle East for far of a discredited demagogue. For this too long. British Muslims can make a rested principally on something that positive contribution to British society, commentators are too blinkered or but first we have to stop our navel- politically correct to mention. gazing and victim mentality. We must let the people, press and politicians of Galloway won because young Bradford this country know that we are as British Muslims turned out for him in droves. as we are Muslim, and we care about They did not vote for him because our shared future. he was promising them better public services. They did not vote for him, The Pakistani Muslim community in indeed, on account of any British Bradford is one of the more internationally domestic issues. They did so because he minded sections of the British population. tailored his message to appeal to their There are the obvious and somewhat religious passions and prejudices about complicated and mixed relationships with conflicts abroad. Pakistan, particularly with Kashmir, which are frequently reinforced through This can be translated as ‘Shock: Politician visits, family ties and marriages. But there Tells Voters What They Want To Hear’. are points of intersection with other parts Galloway’s pitch in Bradford was certainly of the Muslim world, including travel tailored to ideas about international and media consumption. It is not simply affairs that are common currency among emotional appeal. Muslims – as one would expect given his often-expressed views on Palestine, Iraq George Galloway was arguably more and so on throughout his career. These familiar to the voters of Bradford West positions are also widely supported among through his appearances on the Iranian white Britons, particularly opposition to Press TV channel, until recently broadcast the war in Iraq (especially in retrospect) through the Sky satellite system but and sympathy with the situation of the still available online, than he was for Palestinians. Neither was the fact that the infamous Big Brother appearance. Galloway had a specific appeal to Muslim Satellite, cable and online media give voters unnoticed by other commentators, access not only to the international Al- for instance Mehdi Hasan argued in the Jazeera network broadcasting from Qatar, Guardian on 2 April: but to lesser known Arabic and Urdu media. A Fox News television personality 37 Title borrowed from Mehdi Hasan, Guardian, 2 April 2012. may be unknown, or known principally in

THE BRADFORD EARTHQUAKE 51 The Democratic Audit order to ridicule, in San Francisco, but criticise Surrey voters for voting for a they may be revered in Alabama. candidate who ‘tailored his message to appeal to their nationalistic passions Similarly, a plural and international media has fragmented access to and prejudices about the European information and ideas of celebrity Union’? Not a sufficient explanation in among some voters in the UK – starting either case, even if accurate. There are perhaps with Northern Irish, Scots and passionate beliefs about international Muslims, but surely a trend that will affairs that are common in Bradford gather strength in future. Consumption mosques or Surrey golf clubs alike that of foreign and international media as may be based on limited knowledge, or well as UK and local gives a different simply wrong, in each case but are still complexion to people’s perceptions part of the accepted social and political of political issues from that found in landscape. It may be unfortunate from Westminster.38 Islamic concepts such the point of view of public education as the ummah, the united international that it is easier and more politically Muslim community, lend themselves to advantageous to feed ‘Muslim rage’ or an international outlook, and Kashmiris sloganize about ‘Eurocrats’ or ‘political in particular identify with the problems correctness’, but that is politics. If in the other frozen conflict zone of Gaza. anything, Galloway and Phillips are mirror images of each other, tilting at The politics of identity, victimhood and establishment windmills, talking in anger took the form they did in Bradford tropes and performing variants of ‘Ain’t It because of its status as a heavily Muslim Awful’ for different audiences. constituency, but these are far from Muslim-only phenomena. A modern skill that Galloway possesses is the Biraderi and the ‘Bradford ability to convince an audience that Spring’ he understands them and shares their The term ‘Bradford Spring’ is itself a feelings, even if he can’t say precisely contested and divisive usage which what he would do about it. A lot of this this paper has avoided. To those who is about being able to point to something dislike it, it is almost obscene to conflate that the audience deplores, such as the participation in a democratic election Westfield Hole or the blockade of Gaza, in a section of a northern English city and effectively say ‘Ain’t It Awful?’39 with the physical courage required to This creates a sense of fellow feeling confront the forces of oppressive states among the audience, based on common in Egypt, Tunisia or Morocco, still less understandings of events, and a sense of tyrannies like Libya. The power structure superiority (and often noble victimhood) in Bradford may have had its unpleasant against an apparently stronger force. side, but it is not an appropriate For instance, could Melanie Phillips comparison. That said, the movement

38 As a side-note, the USA has a population of 311m in Bradford did bear some comparison people and its electoral politics is exhaustively covered in the UK. Political life in Pakistan, a country of 176m with protest movements such as Occupy with which the UK has close links, is scantily reported. and in turn with radical events such as Those with an interest in events in Pakistan will struggle to find it in ‘mainstream’ media, other than coverage of Paris 1968, in its free-form participatory events related to terrorism or human rights abuses. structure and snowballing momentum. 39 A borrowing from interpersonal psychology: Eric Berne Games People Play, New York, Ballantine, 1964. Many of its participants did feel part of THE BRADFORD EARTHQUAKE 52 The Democratic Audit a wider movement, which included the given the reserves of talent that do release of dammed-up political energies in exist. Before the late 1990s Bradford’s undemocratic Arab countries. Asian councillors were perhaps fewer in number, but contained a number The power structure associated with of people of leadership calibre such as biraderi is highly patriarchal, socially Mohammed Ajeeb. Much of the damage conservative and is regarded by its to the Labour Party seems to have opponents in Bradford as promoting been done during the murky climate mediocre, ideology-free stooges to the surrounding the Bradford West selection council and holding back the development leading up to the 1997 election.40 A BBC of an authentic British-Pakistani politics. report in 2003 noted that: Bradford is not short of well-educated, The continued Biraderi influence successful, aspiring people of Pakistani means there is a growing frustration origin, but the political expression of this within communities that the ‘wrong has been dammed up for years by power people’ are entering politics. structures within the community that Critics of politicians involved in had a grip on politics. It is not hard to Biraderi politics say they are hungry see why educated British women, and for power and prestige rather than politically minded young people, seized the most qualified to lead and make a on the opportunity provided by Respect to difference.41 strike a blow against the biraderi power structures. For the political parties, biraderi networks help them look good on There are a number of baneful quantitative measures of how well consequences of biraderi as it exists in they are doing at representing ethnic Bradford. One is the domination of local minorities, without doing any of the work politics and representation by one localised involved in making themselves truly element of a diverse population, and by representative of complex and diverse a particularly traditional, patriarchal communities. and conservative subsection of that community. Sometimes clan solidarity is freely chosen by voters, but there has been an Before the 2012 council elections, 14 element of coercion as well. Biraderi also of the 20 BME councillors in Bradford intersects with electoral fraud. Deference were Kashmiri; the only Bangladeshi to community elders, and patriarchs represented suburban Shipley for within families, is enforced at election the Green Party. Another is that the time through various mechanisms: traditional screening mechanisms for sometimes just influence, sometimes councillors have been overridden so that through people not understanding the councillors with a poor grasp of English privacy of the ballot, and often with or even criminal records have sat on the postal voting where the voting act can council. This is spoken of most vehemently be supervised by fathers and power- by Asians from other communities who brokers (as may well have been the case not only have been excluded by the 40 Hill op cit. p16. system but feel that they as a whole 41 ‘The Biraderi’ presented by Navid Akhtar for BBC are embarrassed by the performance Radio 4, 26 August 2003 reported at http://webcache. googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:http://news. of their representatives, unnecessarily bbc.co.uk/1/hi/magazine/3181851.stm

THE BRADFORD EARTHQUAKE 53 The Democratic Audit in the all-postal local elections in 2004 in subscribe without perverting its own particular). principles. The tropes of mainstream politics: ‘opportunity’, ‘fairness’ and so on Candidates and elders have also, it is ring hollow as long as the coercive side alleged, been accustomed to collecting and of biraderi persists, particularly in the completing blank postal ballots, and there internal cultures of the parties. And even is the evidence of the 2005 fraud case without coercion, there is nothing very that harvesting of postal votes from often glorious about corralling blocks of voters unwitting electors took place. However, through communal solidarity rather than the effect of the system is probably political argument. stronger on selections within the parties, because mobilising a couple of hundred The revolt against clan politics that people through biraderi can decide the elected Respect in March and May 2012 in entire issue – and much less than that is Bradford is an opportunity for the other needed for a ward selection, particularly in parties – particularly Labour, but the the non-Labour parties. Conservatives have been just as complicit in the past – to build a better form of In contemporary party politics, with politics in Bradford, and heed the example declining partisan allegiances among before there are similar disasters in other voters, low turnout and shrinking levels of places. It is not clear yet whether Respect membership and activism, it is not difficult is capable of being a stable alternative; to see why the parties tolerate biraderi. it may fall into faction-fighting, or be There are few block votes around, and to too influenced by extremists, or indeed win large parcels of votes on the basis of itself fall into the clutches of a more deals with a few powerful individuals is sophisticated version of clan politics. But tempting, particularly as the ‘price’ for resentment about electoral defeat should doing so does not seem very high – a few not blind the main parties to the positive council seats, some board memberships, possibilities offered by the revolt against some community facilities and so on. biraderi. Labour MP for Dewsbury 2005-10 Shahid Malik told the BBC in 2003 that: A lack of diversity The Labour Party and other parties got Politics in Bradford has evolved into a used to dealing with those [clan] people sort of elite accommodation rather than and there seems to be an unwitting genuine pluralism and diversity. It is rare collusion there between the parties and inside the city (less so in Keighley and first generation British Pakistanis. Shipley) to see any successful cases any Manipulation of the clan system to more of white candidates in mostly Asian keep parties viable and to exercise wards, or Asian candidates in mostly white power at a local level is not confined wards. There are only two wards out of to Asian politicians in Bradford. But thirty currently represented by a diverse ultimately it corrodes the foundations slate of councillors in terms of ethnicity of politics and exposes the party that – Great Horton (one Asian and two white practises it to disaster, as in Bradford Labour councillors), and Shipley (one West in March 2012. It is also, ethically, Asian and two white Green councillors). a system to which a democratic party As noted, council representation has not based on fairness and equality cannot reflected the ethnic and class diversity

THE BRADFORD EARTHQUAKE 54 The Democratic Audit within the broad headings of ‘white’ and the consequences of downgrading ideology ‘Asian’. and depriving local party structures of a role in policy formation, both of which Much of this can be attributed to the were associated with the Blairite project. electoral system. Under First Past It was a replay of the tolerance towards the Post, particularly with single seat extreme left entryism between the early vacancies in each ward each year, the 1970s and the mid 1980s, only this incentive for parties is to reflect the time it involved an entirely pragmatic local majority in each ward rather accommodation with local power brokers. than minority communities. Combined with the concentration of power that Membership of the Labour Party, access takes place with biraderi this leads to to candidate selection and sometimes even very unrepresentative outcomes, and selection for the council itself has been segregated representation that is not open in Bradford, and elsewhere, to people justified by the demographics of Bradford’s with little interest in politics and little wards. Instead of biraderi among working sympathy with Labour principles. As one class white wards, the parties fear that Labour member put it to me, the party white voters will not vote for Asian locally should start saying things like: candidates and therefore do not put them up. ‘If you’re a small business owner who doesn’t want to pay the minimum The all-out elections in 2004 did see wage, avoids tax and doesn’t like health some attempts at mixed representation and safety legislation, go and join the – Suzanne Rooney stood for Labour Tories.’ in Manningham, for instance, and did better than one of her Asian running The lack of ideological foundations for mates in that strange election. But party membership makes it more likely, a majoritarian electoral system does as has been repeatedly seen in Bradford lend itself more generally to a lack of politics and elsewhere, that councillors diversity. Proportional representation in will defect to other parties if they get a local elections would arguably improve better offer in terms of their own career or political culture and undermine machine business interests. domination. This is not to say that people who have The problem of a lack of pluralism also vaguely formed political ideas should be affects parliamentary seats. The politics excluded from membership, just that local of Bradford West revolve around the parties such as Bradford West have been Muslim community, and many whites feel failing in one of their responsibilities. that they are ignored and shut out of the Political discussion and education should discussion (and therefore fail to turn out). be a considerable part of local party The perception of Bradford South as ‘the activity, and in Bradford West this was white working class seat’ does a similar more or less derelict for years before the disservice to its resident ethnic minorities. by-election. It is a role of local parties that is often downplayed in Labour Party There’s nothing wrong with a bit culture, dominated by procedure and of ideology local government issues that are not the What happened to the Labour Party in core of political ideology, but it achieved Bradford West is a grotesque example of particularly morbid dimensions in

THE BRADFORD EARTHQUAKE 55 The Democratic Audit

Bradford West. As the Respect campaign Labour not New Labour’ – merely to note demonstrated, there was considerable that this was an important part of his appetite for political discussion and appeal at the election in Bradford. In activism in Bradford that was not being a subsequent interview Salma Yaqoob met within the Labour Party (or the other said that Galloway was keen to get back political parties) – although the form into Labour if he could.43 In the same it has taken within Respect’s discourse way that in 2005 people could reconcile might be based more on affirming being anti-war and wanting a Labour existing interpretations of the world than government by voting for anti-war MP challenging perceptions and applying Marsha Singh, voting for Galloway in ideas. 2012 was reconcilable in people’s minds with wanting Labour to form the next Following the ructions within Respect, government. In most of the elections there have been internal Labour where Independent Labour candidates discussions about the desirability or have won (Merthyr, Blyth, Falkirk and otherwise of admitting ex-Respect Blaenau Gwent certainly, and more members such as Salma Yaqoob to Labour complicatedly Lincoln) the winner has Party membership, and the question of claimed to be more in touch with Labour whether Respect members can be said traditions than the official nominee to be extreme.42 Many of these miss and to support Labour government at the point by comparing Respect with a national level. Galloway is another in 1970s/80s style entryist organisations like the same line. Militant. Respect is a much less coherent body, ideologically, than Militant – while It is a phenomenon which does not only there are some people in it who would be occur on the Labour side, although in ineligible for membership of the Labour recent times it has been more apparent Party because they adhere to non-Labour on the right in European Parliament ideologies like Trotskyism or Islamism, elections rather than by-elections. many others would not be. In Bradford Voting for UKIP in these elections for instance, Respect activists such as is not seen, by many Conservative Naweed Hussain and Mohammed Shabbir voters and even members, as being were previously Labour members in good disloyal to the real interests of the standing and had grounds for feeling Conservative Party. Indeed, in its unfairly dealt with by Labour locally, as anti-EU and socially traditionalist did many people who were not affiliated politics UKIP seems to some to be more to the dominant clans. Their views authentically ‘Conservative’ than the may be towards the left of the Labour actual Conservative Party, particularly spectrum, but were certainly not deemed perhaps in recent periods of Cameron’s incompatible with Labour before the liberal conservatism in opposition and upheavals in Bradford in spring 2012. the coalition government since May 2010. There are parallels, perhaps, with ‘Real Labour’? successes for independent right-wing This is not the place to adjudicate on the candidates in several by-elections of claim that George Galloway reflects ‘Real the 1918-22 coalition parliament. It is

42 For instance http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2012/09/19/ 43 Guardian, 22 September 2012, http://www. respect-the-case-against-allowing-extremists-into-theguardian.co.uk/theguardian/2012/sep/22/salma- labour-party/ yaqoob-respect-george-galloway

THE BRADFORD EARTHQUAKE 56 The Democratic Audit probably an inescapable paradox for the prominent feature of election campaigning, two main parties if politics is going to and it does seem to sway some voters, but be all about competing at the centre and Bradford West suggests that ‘local’ is not taking the core vote for granted because the trump card that parties often assert. they have nowhere else to go. As soon as Celebrity is not, one should remember, a plausible option appears, as long as it an unstoppable force. An interesting appears to be ‘Real’ rather than watered contrast to Bradford West is afforded by down, the core vote can rapidly disappear Luton South in 2010, a place with some because party tribalism is not the same similarities. Luton has a large Muslim thing as unshakable loyalty to the party population of Pakistani origin (18.9 nominee. per cent were of south Asian origin in Celebrity Luton South in 2001) and some of the same political patterns. Biraderi is not Galloway is in many ways an old fashioned unknown, and there have been well- politician, but his success in Bradford publicised conflicts in the town involving owed much to two aspects of modernity extreme Islamists and the English far- that have little to do with social media. right, which has not contributed to a One is the ‘Ain’t it Awful’ highlighting of positive image for Luton. The MP in 1997- grievance, and the other is celebrity, which 2010, Margaret Moran, faced particularly liberates a politician from seeming like a severe expenses allegations in 2009 (she boring, normal politician and enables mis- was ruled unfit by reason of mental illness statements, gaffes and things which would to face criminal charges in April 2012), kill many political careers to wash off. and Labour organisation in Luton South George Galloway and Boris Johnson have had been in a state of some decrepitude. A much in common. According to Labour MP celebrity candidate, Esther Rantzen, came Toby Perkins: forward to run on a clean politics ticket. safety first can be a dangerous game. Galloway’s campaign was outrageous The outcome in Luton South in 2010 was and exciting; ours looked comparatively startling, not because Rantzen won but cautious and lacklustre. We were because she fell so far short – she won only listening to voters; he was telling them 4.4 per cent of the vote. Of course, Rantzen what they ought to think. His strategy lacked the organisational resources was to paint Labour’s Imran Hussain available to Galloway in Bradford, and the as a dutiful, dull councillor with a instant fervour that his cause attracted series of very personal and, in some from young Muslims, but she had name cases, untrue claims. By contrast, he recognition and a popular case to argue claimed to be a famous ‘statesman’ who that had a core of validity surrounded would bring colour to this grey city. His by a huge amount of inflamed emotion. campaign was a masterpiece of show The winner was instead, on a rather and visibility. Imran had 300 Twitter small swing, the Labour candidate Gavin followers; Galloway’s Facebook page had Shuker. Shuker was a proud Christian 82,751.44 who had no difficulty appealing to Muslim and non-Muslim electors in Luton; there Being ‘local’ has become an increasingly was a movement back to Labour among 44 Toby Perkins MP, ‘Our campaign was lacklustre: his Muslim voters in the 2007 local and 2010 was a masterpiece’ Independent on Sunday, 1 April 2012. general elections following post-Iraq

THE BRADFORD EARTHQUAKE 57 The Democratic Audit disaffection. Shuker’s selection and the to Parliament, but that you could do successful general election campaign better with a parliamentarian. This followed change and renewal within the cleverly tapped into Bradford’s psyche: local Labour Party in which campaigning the dislike of local government politics, and politics assumed a more important the sense that politics as usual meant position than local power-broking. jumped-up mediocrity, and the justified self-advertisement as an experienced Campaigning parliamentarian appealed to frustrated There is relatively little that the Bradford grandeur and a sense that something had West by-election can teach one about to be done. Bradford West was electing an campaigning techniques. Much of what advocate, and Galloway’s celebrity and his Respect did was a sensible adaptation skills made him seem best cut out for the of age-old electioneering techniques role. to modern times and the nature of the One of his most important supporters, constituency. There were some interesting Mohammed Ayub of Chambers Solicitors, innovations in terms of the use of social told the Sunday Times: media, but this was a symptom rather than a cause of other political changes I’m not a politician, I have no political that were taking place, and of the very ambition. In a democratic state you young demographics of the constituency. need checks and balances. I firmly But the most significant point to note is believe George Galloway is that the combined effect of a traditional media check and balance. He is a voice of 45 event with the amplification that social opposition. media can provide. ‘It’s the TV debate, Just by the act of electing Galloway, #stupid’ is perhaps the broad conclusion on however he performed his representative what mattered in terms of campaigning. role over the full term of Parliament, something was done to draw attention to ‘Engagement’ Bradford’s problems. His victory caused a The political establishment is always surge of interest in the politics of Bradford, bemoaning the lack of engagement in of which the current paper is one example, electoral politics by young people, and which would certainly not have taken wishing they would get involved. Bradford place had Imran Hussain won. West was an example of young people Other by-elections with more orthodox doing exactly this, and then being shushed results have had little effect on and belittled by a range of political and the national media and political media commentators for caring too much, consciousness.46 Leicester South only had about the wrong sort of thing. This sort of 22 national media citations in May 2011, reaction does not do much to encourage and Feltham & Heston 113 citations in young people that they were wrong to December 2011. In each case there were regard the political establishment as hardly any references to it a few days after hostile and patronising. the event. Oldham East & Saddleworth

A cry for help 45 Sunday Times, 1 April 2012. One of Galloway’s most compelling 46 These numbers are based on a NewsBank search of 14 UK national newspapers and online media (Sun, arguments in the by-election was that Times, Sunday Times, Independent, Financial Times, Guardian, Guardian Online, Mirror, Telegraph, Economist, it was all very well sending a councillor Observer, Star, Mail and Express).

THE BRADFORD EARTHQUAKE 58 The Democratic Audit

National media citations of three cities, 2010-12 the city, they succeeded. Southampton Bradford Wolverhampton 2,000 One, two, many Bradfords?

1,800 The big question that arises concerns how many places are like Bradford 1,600 West in terms of political dereliction.

1,400 Demographically, Bradford West is an outlier for its youth and its ethnic and 1,200 religious composition, and Bradford as a

1,000 whole has an unusual political culture. There is only one George Galloway. A 800 number of unusual elements had to come together for the Bradford earthquake to 600 happen. However, Bradford is far from the 400 only northern city which has seen Labour rely on ethnic solidarity and biraderi block 200 votes in the absence of alternatives as 0 grassroots political activism has withered away. April ‘11 June ‘11 April ‘12 June ‘12 August ‘11 August ‘12 October ‘10 February ‘11 October ‘11 February ‘12 December ‘10 December ‘11 Respect has ambitions to challenge Labour in a number of northern towns, including drew a bit more attention, with 313 Manchester (despite its by-election failure citations in January 2011 although this in November 2012), Huddersfield and fell off to 20 for the rest of 2011. Bradford perhaps Blackburn, and no doubt places West had 91 citations during the actual like Oldham and Rochdale that have large campaign (March 2012), probably less Muslim communities and, like Bradford, genuine coverage than the routine are peripheral to their metropolitan area. campaign in Feltham & Heston when one Burnley, with the rise and fall of the BNP considers 30 false positives caused by the and the rise of the Liberal Democrats is postal address47 and 10 duplicate articles. an example of how Labour can lose its After the result coverage rocketed, with grip on northern multi-ethnic towns. The 265 hits (including 10 false positives) in 2006 report Whose Town is it Anyway? the week after the election and 200 in the pointed out the hollowed-out state of local rest of April 2012. Although attention to democracy in Burnley and even in affluent Bradford in general fell back in summer Harrogate. Democratic accountability 2012, the peak in March and April 2012 relationships are weak, and the party saw more Bradford-related national structure itself is kept in business by coverage than at any other time in the last an extremely small number of people – two years, and more than the somewhat around 100 in each town.48 Constituency- comparable city of Wolverhampton level political organisation is therefore managed at any stage (see chart above).If extremely vulnerable to capture and the intention of Bradford West voters was from being overturned by more energised to draw attention to the problems faced by political movements in many more places

47 i.e. ‘Bradford, West Yorkshire’. Ironically, the Sun’s 48 Wilks-Heeg, S. and Clayton, S. (2006) Whose Town campaign against the pie tax by offering a free pasty is it Anyway? The State of Local Democracy in Two involved readers writing to a postal address in Bradford. Northern Towns, York, JRCT.

THE BRADFORD EARTHQUAKE 59 The Democratic Audit than Bradford West. 3 A rational use of the vote Since the by-election the problems of keeping Respect’s electoral coalition he overall conclusion of this report is together have become more obviously that the electors of Bradford West used difficult. A movement built on the Tthe electoral system in a rational way foundations of a small Marxist socialist to achieve some goals that were shared by party (the SWP), the personality of the majority of those voting. Portraying it George Galloway, international Islamic as a collective rush of blood to the head by solidarity, peace activists and disaffected excitable young Muslims is a disservice to Labour leftists was always going to be the voters as well as being a stereotype. problematic, and the party has lost its One does not have to support Galloway, leader and its candidate in Manchester or have no reservations about the nature Central. Respect as an organisation may of some of the political forces that were therefore have its limitations. But it, manifested, in order to recognise that very or something like it, do have potential. economically, the voters of Bradford West Rather as the Liberal Democrats can in managed to do the following: some places be a ‘franchise’ party, a loose l To send a message to the Westminster ideological label for community activism, political establishment that politics as Respect can perform the same function. usual was not inspiring or attractive. It would be foolish to assume that just because the national party has hit some l To tell the Labour Party that ethnic problems, it cannot put down roots in minority and working class electors are Bradford. not to be ignored or taken for granted; that a strategy based on chasing after The more general risk for Labour is that centre-ground voters and taking the the coalition’s unpopularity among white heartlands for granted has its risks. and BME electors in northern towns l and cities will allow the status quo to To overturn a heartily despised local continue for a few years longer, and for power structure within the Asian politics in other areas to deteriorate communities in Bradford West. as it did in Bradford West through l To say loudly that politics, while it is lack of competition and lack of active always local in some ways, cannot be membership – and for similar problems reduced to a dreary auction of being to crop up elsewhere over the next more local than one’s competitors. decade. l But also to raise the profile of Bradford, and the issues that Bradford voters care about, in politics. The fact that that issues such as the Westfield Hole are now known to a wider audience, suggests that the by-election has successfully drawn attention to Bradford’s problems. It makes it more likely that something will be done about these problems. How many votes cast in elections can be said to be as powerful?

THE BRADFORD EARTHQUAKE 60 The Democratic Audit ❱ SOURCES AND BIBLIOGRAPHY

A NOTE ON SOURCES BIBLIOGRAPHY

am grateful to Stuart Wilks-Heeg, or those wishing to read more about Hanneke Hart, Philip Lewis and Anne Bradford I would suggest consulting ICzernik for academic consultations of Ffrom the works on this non-exhaustive, various types during the formulation, very select, bibliography. research and writing of this paper. I am ‘The Biraderi’ presented by Navid Akhtar also immensely grateful to those people for BBC Radio 4, 26 August 2003. in Bradford and London who shared their time and insights with me in summer Bradford West candidate debate for BBC and autumn 2012, mostly in two stays Sunday Politics http://www.youtube.com/ in Bradford in July and August 2012. I watch?v=okKxC4ZNIqw chose, at a fairly early stage in the project, Chris Cook & John Ramsden (eds), By- to regard all interviews as being on elections in British Politics, London, UCL background terms and have not attributed Press, 1997. statements or quotations to individuals David Goodhart ‘A tale of three cities’ in the report. Nor will I list interviewees Prospect, June 2011, http://www. here. Several people have shared matters prospectmagazine.co.uk/magazine/ of great sensitivity with me, and I am bradford-burnley-oldham-riots-ten-years- much in their debt for their candour on/ and trust. You have my respect, no pun intended. David Goodhart, ‘Making Sense of Bradford West’ Prospect 4 April 2012 Citations in particular traditional and http://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/ on-line media are given where they arise magazine/george-galloway-bradford-west- in the text. I am grateful to the staffs of bloc-voting-labour-ethnic-minority/ the British Library, Bradford’s Electoral Services department and, in particular, Jim Greenhalf, It’s A Mean Old Scene: a the local studies section at Bradford history of modern Bradford since 1974, Central Library for their assistance, and Bradford, Redbeck Press, 2003. to those in Respect and the BBC who have Eleanor Hill, Ethnicity and Democracy: A put so much information in the public Study into Biraderi, BA thesis School of domain. Historical Studies, University of Bradford, 2012. Philip Lewis, ‘The Civic and Religious Incorporation of British Muslims: Whose Incorporation, Which Islam?’ in Western

THE BRADFORD EARTHQUAKE 61 The Democratic Audit

Muslims and the refiguring of liberal citizenship; comparisons from western Europe and North America, Robert Heffner (ed), University of Indiana Press, 2013.

Helen Pidd’s articles for the Guardian, particularly 4 April 2012 and 2 May 2012. Irna Qureshi’s contributions to the Guardian Northerner blog since the election, particularly on the Odeon and on the reaction of Bradford Muslim women to developments over the summer http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/the- northerner/2012/sep/13/georgegalloway- bradford-west-byelection-2012-muslim- women-salma-yaqoob-rape Wilks-Heeg, S. and Clayton, S. (2006) Whose Town is it Anyway? The State of Local Democracy in Two Northern Towns, York, JRCT.

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