User's Guide to the Western Spruce Budworm Modeling System
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Rocky Mountain Research Station Publications www.fs.fed.us/rm/publications www.treesearch.fs.fed.us This is a legacy archive publication from the former Intermountain Research Station (INT) or Rocky Mountain Forest and Range Experimental Station (RM). The content may not reflect current scientific knowledge, policies, or practices. This PDF may have been generated by scanning the original printed publication. Errors identified by the OCR software have been corrected; however, some errors may remain. Questions or problems? Please email us: [email protected] United States Department of Agriculture User's Guide to the Western Forest Service Spruce Budworm Modeling lntermountain Research Station System General Technical Report INT-274 September 1990 Nicholas L. Crookston J. J. Colbert Paul W. Thomas Katharine A. Sheehan William P. Kemp THE AUTHORS Model simulates budworm population dynamics on up to thirty stands at a time. Adult dispersal is simulated between stands. NICHOLAS L. CROOKSTON, operations research analyst, Because the model does not estimate tree growth, its use is is a member of the Quantitative Analysis for Forest Manage limited to making short-term (up to 15 years) projections. ment Planning and Control research work unit located at the The Prognosis-Budworm Dynamics Model is a combination lntermountain Research Station's Forestry Sciences Labora of the Budworm Dynamics.Model and the Prognosis Model. tory, Moscow, ID. The Prognosis Model contains tree growth models and is used J. J. COLBERT, research mathematician, is a member to estimate stand growth and development. It represents one of the Silvicultural Options for the Gypsy Moth research stand at a time for long-term (about 100 to 300 years) projec work unit located at the Northeastern Forest Experiment tions. A set of damage models adjusts tree growth, mortality, Station's Forestry Sciences Laboratory, Morgantown, WV. and top damage to account for budworm-caused defoliation. While involved with this project, he was research coordinator The Prognosis-Budworm Dynamics Model can be used to and program manager of the Canada-U.S. Spruce Bud make long-term projections of population dynamics, defoliation, worms Program-West. and their effects on growth and yield. Another, smaller, combination of system components is PAUL W. THOMAS was a computer programmer at the called the Prognosis-Budworm Damage Model. It is a com College of Forestry, Wildlife and Range Sciences, University bination of the Prognosis Model and the budworm damage of Idaho, Moscow, while actively working on this project. He components. Estimates of budworm-caused defoliation may is now working in the computer industry. be entered directly into this program bypassing the need to KATHARINE A. SHEEHAN is an entomologist, Forest Pest run the more complex and expensive dynamics model. Management, Pacific N'orthwest Region, Forest Service, This user's guide describes how to use these computer U.S. Department of Agriculture, Portland, OR. While actively programs. The scientific basis and behavior of the programs working on this project, she was a research associate, Col are not included. lege of Forestry, Wildlife and Range Sciences, University of Idaho. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS WILLIAM P. KEMP is a research entomologist, Rangeland The Budworm Modeling System is based on the research Insect Laboratory, Agricultural Research Service, U.S. De results and insights of many people. Besides the recognition partment of Agriculture, Bozeman, MT. His involvement in afforded those people listed in the reference section, we this work occurred while he was a research associate, Col would like to extend special thanks to the following people: lege of Forestry, Wildlife and Range Sciences, University of Rene Alfaro, Roy Beckwith, Robert Campbell, Clinton Carlson, Idaho. Val Carolin, Dennis Ferguson, 0. Edward Garton, Tommy F. Gregg, Bruce B. Hostetler, Garrell Long, Peter McNamee, RESEARCH SUMMARY Peter Mika, Thomas Nichols, Nilima Srivastava, Albert Stage, Alan Thomson, Torolf R. Torgersen, Alan Van Sickle, Jan The Budworm Modeling System is a system of computer Volney, and Michael Wagner. programs useful to simulate many aspects of budworm Funds for this work were provided by the Canada/United dynamics and budworm-caused damage on stand growth. States Spruce Budworms Program, the lntermountain Re The Budworm Dynamics Model predicts budworm population search Staticn, the Pacific Northwest Research Station, and changes, foliage growth, budworm growth, feeding, and Forest Pest Management, Methods Application Group, Forest subsequent defoliation dependent on several site, stand, Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture. The University of foliage, and weather conditions. A stochastic weather model Idaho, College of Forestry, Wildlife, and Range Sciences pro is used to estimate weather. Measurements of budworm vided technical, clerical, and administrative assistance during populations, current defoliation, and routine stand examina the life of the budworms program. tion data comprise the input data. The Budworm Dynamics The use of trade or firm names in this publication is for reader information and does not imply endorsement by the U.S. Department of Agriculture of atJy product or service. lntermountain Research Station 324 25th Street Ogden, UT 84401 CONTENTS Page Page Simulating Management Options ................................. 27 Introduction ......................................................................... 1 Direct Population Suppression ............................... 28 The Western Spruce Budworm Modeling System ......... 1 Multistand Spraying ................................................ 29 Content of Guide ............................................................ 2 Example 7: Multistand Spray Run .......................... 30 Modeling System Applications ....................................... 2 Representing Silvicultural Actions .......................... 30 Common Concepts ............................................................. 4 Modifying Biomass Calculations .................................. 31 Budworm Model Tree Classes ....................................... 4 Modifying Dispersal Calculations ................................. 33 Keyword Structure ......................................................... 4 Adult Dispersal ........................................................ 33 File Handling Keywords ................................................. 5 Spring Dispersal of Emerging Second Entering Comments ....................................................... 6 In star Larvae ........................................................ 34 Random Number Generator .......................................... 6 Developing Larval Dispersal ................................... 35 Using the Prognosis-Budworm Damage Model .................. 6 Modifying Mortality Calculations .................................. 37 Entering Defoliation Estimates ....................................... 6 Dispersal Mortality .................................................. 37 Example 1: Using DEFOL and SETPRBIO ....... :....... 8 Other Natural Mortality ............................................ 38 The Prognosis Model's Activity Schedule ...................... 9 Modifying Phenology Calculations ............................... 40 Representing Management Actions ............................... 9 Budworm Phenology ............................................... 40 Suppressing Topkill Calculations ................................... 9 Foliage Phenology .................................................. 42 Writing a Foliage File ..................................................... 9 Modifying Feeding Calculations ................................... 42 Example 2: Using WRITE FOL ................................ 10 References ....................................................................... 48 Using the Prognosis-Budworm Dynamics Model ............. 11 Appendix A: Example Runs .............................................. 50 Calling the Budworm Dynamics Model ........................ 11 Using the Prognosis-Budworm Dynamics Model ......... 50 Using the Weather Model ............................................ 11 Example A-1: Using DEFOL Keywords .................. 51 Example 3: CALLBW and Select a Weather Example A-2: Using CALLBW ................................ 52 Station .................................................................. 11 Example A-3: Using WRITEFOL ............................ 53 Output ............................................................................... 12 Example A-4: Using the Budworm Dynamics Keyword Table ............................................................. 12 Model ................................................................... 55 Initial Conditions .......................................................... 12 Appendix B: Machine Readable File Record Foliage ......................................................................... 14 Formats ......................................................................... 56 Damage ....................................................................... 16 Appendix C: Keyword Summary ...................................... 60 Population Dynamics ................................................... 18 Special Output ............................................................. 21 LIST OF EXAMPLES Example 4: Requesting Output ............................... 22 Example 1: Using DE FOL and SETPRBIO .......................