Completion Report Project Number: 28165-01 Loan Number: 1578 July 2007 PAK: Second Flood Protection Sector Project CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS Currency Unit – Pakistan rupees (PRe/PRs) At Appraisal At Project Completion (30 September 1997) (31 December 2006) PRe1.00 = $0.025 $0.016 $1.00 = PRs40.47 PRs60.88 ABBREVIATIONS ADB ― Asian Development Bank EA ― executing agency EIRR ― economic internal rate of return FEWS ― flood early warning system FFC ― Federal Flood Commission FFD ― Flood Forecasting Division FPA Flood Protection Association IA ― implementing agency ICB ― international competitive bidding IRI ― Irrigation Research Institute ISRIP ― International Sediment Research Institute of Pakistan MOWP ― Ministry of Water and Power NFFB ― National Flood Forecasting Bureau NCB ― national competitive bidding NGO ― non-government organization NWFP ― North-West Frontier Province PC-I ― Planning Commission Proforma I PCR project completion report OECF ― Overseas Economic Cooperation Fund (of Japan) PID Provincial Irrigation Department PIDA ― Provincial Irrigation and Drainage Authority PMD ― Pakistan Meteorological Department RMT ― river management team WAPDA-W ― Water and Power Development Authority (Water Wing) NOTES (i) The fiscal year (FY) of the Government of Pakistan and the provincial governments ends on 30 June. FY before a calendar year denotes the year in which the fiscal year ends, e.g., FY2007 ends on 30 June 2007. (ii) In this report, "$" refers to US dollars. (iii) “Government” refers to the Government of Pakistan. Vice President L. Jin, Operations 01 Director General J. Miranda, Central and West Asia Region Department Director P. Fedon, Pakistan Resident Mission Team leader R. Farrukh, Project Implementation Officer, Pakistan Resident Mission Team member L. Ali, Assistant Project Analyst, Pakistan Resident Mission CONTENTS Page BASIC DATA ii MAP vi I. PROJECT DESCRIPTION 1 II. EVALUATION OF DESIGN AND IMPLEMENTATION 1 A. Relevance of Design and Formulation 1 B. Project Outputs 3 C. Project Costs 5 D. Disbursements 5 E. Project Schedule 6 F. Implementation Arrangements 7 G. Conditions and Covenants 7 H. Consultant Recruitment and Procurement 7 I. Performance of Consultants, Contractors and Suppliers 8 J. Performance of the Borrower and the Executing Agency 8 K. Performance of the Asian Development Bank 9 III. EVALUATION OF PERFORMANCE 9 A. Relevance 9 B. Effectiveness in Achieving Outcomes 10 C. Efficiency in Achieving Outcomes and Outputs 10 D. Preliminary Assessment of Sustainability 10 E. Impact 11 IV. OVERALL ASSESSMENT AND RECOMMENDATIONS 11 A. Overall Assessment 11 B. Lessons Learned 11 C. Recommendations 12 APPENDIXES 1. Flood Protection Subprojects 14 2. Project Framework 16 3. Loan Covenants 20 4. Economic Analysis 29 5. Assessment of Overall Project Performance 40 6. Procurement Packages 41 7. Chronology of Major Events 42 BASIC DATA A. Loan Identification 1. Country Pakistan 2. Loan number 1578-PAK(SF) 3. Project title Second Flood Protection Sector Project 4. Borrower Islamic Republic of Pakistan 5. Executing agency Federal Flood Commission 6. Amount of loan SDR73,249,000 7. Project Completion Report 28165-01 number B. Loan Data 1. Appraisal – Date started 22 June 1997 – Date completed 11 July 1997 2. Loan negotiations – Date started 08 October 1997 – Date completed 10 October 1997 3. Date of Board approval 13 November 1997 4. Date of loan agreement 10 February 1999 5. Date of loan effectiveness – In loan agreement 11 May 1999 – Actual 01 October 1999 – Number of extensions 2 6. Closing date – In loan agreement 30 June 2005 – Actual 31 December 2006 – Number of extensions 2 7. Terms of loan – Interest rate 1% – Maturity (number of years) 35 – Grace period (number of years) 10 8. Terms of relending (if any) N/A – Interest rate – Maturity (number of years) – Grace period (number of years) – Second-step borrower iii 9. Disbursements a. Dates Initial Disbursement Final Disbursement Time Interval 30 June 2000 23 April 2007 82 months Effective Date Original Closing Date Time Interval 01 October 1999 30 June 2005 69 months b. Amount (SDR) Category or Last Net Subloan Original Revised Amount Amount Amount Undisbursed Allocation Allocation Canceled Available Disbursed Balance Civil works 38,653,400 31,685,142 6,968,258 31,685,142 25,170,391 6,514,751 Equipment, vehicles and supplies 2,808,100 5,153,271 (2,345,171) 5,153,271 2,942,351 2,210920 Consulting services 17,744,800 3,633,610 14,111,190 3,633,610 4,496,896 (863,286) Overseas studies 435,000 0 435,000 0 0 0 Local training 580,700 56,775 523,925 56,775 0 56,775 Local studies 47,300 0 47,300 0 0 0 Service charge 2,344,000 1,494,218 849,782 1,494,218 354,333 1,139,885 Unallocated (FC) 4,098,300 0 4,098,300 0 0 0 Unallocated (LC) 6,537,400 1,608,984 4,928,416 1,608,984 0 1,608,984 Total 73,249,000 43,632,000 29,617,000 43,632,000 32,963,971 10,668,029 10. Local Costs (financed) - Amount ($) 29,648,606 - Percent of Local Costs 69 - Percent of Total Cost 48 C. Project Data 1. Project Cost ($ ‘000) Cost Appraisal Estimate Actual Foreign Exchange Cost 52,500 18,508 Local Currency Cost 147,500 42,647 Total 200,000 61,155 iv 2. Financing Plan ($ ‘000) Cost Appraisal Estimate Actual Implementation Costs Borrower financed 44,000 12,998 ADB financed 96,800 47,640 Other external financing 50,000 0 Beneficiaries 6,000 0 Total 196,800 60,638 IDC Costs Borrower financed - ADB financed 3,200 517 Other external financing - Total 200,000 61,155 ADB = Asian Development Bank, IDC = interest during construction. 3. Cost Breakdown by Project Component ($ ‘000) Component Appraisal Estimate Actual Policy improvement and capacity building 37,300 3,718 Improvement of flood forecasting, warning and 17,400 7,503 preparedness Implementation of subprojects 142,100 49,417 Service charge on ADB loan 3,200 517 Total 200,000 61,155 4. Project Schedule Item Appraisal Estimate Actual Date of contract with consultants-Package B June 1998 April 2000 Date of contract with consultants-Package C June 1998 April 2000 Date of contract with NGO June 1998 June 2001 Completion of engineering designs June 1999 June 2004 Civil works contract Date of award April 1999 January 2004 Completion of work December 2004 May 2006 Equipment and supplies Dates First procurement October 1998 April 2004 Last procurement February 2002 April 2006 Completion of equipment installation NA April 2007 Start of operations Completion of tests and commissioning NA April 2007 Beginning of start-up NA November 2006 NA= not available v 5. Project Performance Report Ratings Ratings Development Implementation Implementation Period Objectives Progress From 30/12/1998 to 30/07/2000 S S From 30/08/2000 to 30/12/2000 S PS From 30/01/2001 to 26/02/2001 S U From 27/02/2001 to 30/05/2001 S PS From 29/06/2001 to 30/08/2001 S S From 29/09/2001 to 29/06/2005 S PS From 30/07/2005 to 31/03/2007 S S S = satisfactory, PS = partly satisfactory, U = unsatisfactory. D. Data on Asian Development Bank Missions No. of No. of Specialization Name of Mission Date Persons Person-Days of Membersa Fact-finding 28/04/1997 6 108 a, b, c, d, e, f Appraisal 22/06/1997 6 120 a, b, c, g, e, f Follow-up 18/08/1997 1 8 b Special Project Administration 1 07/06/1998 2 34 h, i Special Project Administration 2 29/11/1999 2 6 j, k Project Review 1 16/12/2003 3 48 l, m, o Project Review 2 05/07/2004 2 34 l, o Project Review 3 25/01/2005 3 93 l, n, o Project Review 4 20/2/2006 1 31 l Project Completion Review 5/3/2007 1 30 l a a – Senior project economist, b - financial analyst, c – programs officer, d – senior environment specialist, e – social development specialist, f – senior project implementation officer, g – counsel, h – irrigation engineer, i – project assistant, j – project engineer, k – senior project specialist, l – project implementation officer, m – senior project assistant, n – associate project analyst, o – flood engineer. vi I. PROJECT DESCRIPTION 1. Flooding is a major problem in Pakistan and is most extensive and damaging in the Indus Plain. Damage also occurs in areas along small rivers with relatively steep catchments causing flash floods. Major flood events result from excessive flows within the Indus River basin, including the Indus itself and main tributaries, namely the Jhelum, Chenab, Ravi, Sutlej and Kabul rivers. It is one of the largest river systems in the world and provides irrigation water to about 12 million hectares, representing 80 percent of Pakistan’s irrigated land. Melting snow from the mountains combined with monsoon rains (generally from July to September) cause heavy flooding and riverbank erosion. Floods have resulted in loss of life and substantial damage to property, infrastructure and agriculture. Serious flooding also leads to dislocation of entire communities, disrupting the life and productive activities of thousands of households. In many cases, the poorest segment of society suffers the greatest damage as a single flood can wipe out their limited possessions, including houses, livestock and small farms, which are their only source of livelihood. 2. Flood hazards and riverbank erosion that adversely affect human settlements, infrastructure and farming areas have to be minimized so that Pakistan’s predominantly rural communities in flood-prone areas can sustain increases in agricultural production, employment and incomes. The predominance of low-income families among rural communities provided strong justification for the Project. The major objective of the Project was to reduce damage due to flooding to the communities along Pakistan’s major and secondary rivers.