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Initiating Coverage December 22, 2015 Rating Matrix Wonderla Holidays (WONHOL) Rating : Buy Target : | 460 | 390 Target Period : 12-18 months Gearing up for a ‘wonderful’ ride! Potential Upside : 18% Wonderla Holidays (WHL) is one of the leading amusement park YoY Growth (%) operators in India. WHL currently operates two established parks: one in (YoY Growth) FY 15 FY 16E FY 17E FY 18E Kochi (since 2000) and the other in Bengaluru (since 2005). The company Net Sales 18.4 21.4 42.8 15.8 is setting up a new park in Hyderabad (by Apr-16). Further, a park in EBITDA 14.5 22.8 37.3 18.6 Chennai (by FY19) is under planning stage. These two new parks are Net Profit 26.9 39.6 9.1 26.3 expected to boost WHL’s footfall and revenues. Healthy cash flow from EPS* (3.3) 36.1 9.1 26.3 established parks (Kochi and Bengaluru) are expected to fund the capex *post IPO of new parks (Hyderabad and Chennai), thereby helping the company Valuation Summary maintain healthy growth metrics. WHL is expected to be one of the key (x) FY 15 FY 16E FY 17E FY 18E beneficiaries of favourable demographics and rising discretionary spends. P/E 42.3 31.1 28.5 22.6 Considering this, we expect the company to report revenue and EBITDA Target P/E 50.1 36.8 33.7 26.7 CAGR of 26.2% and 25.9%, respectively, over FY15-18E. We initiate EV / EBITDA 24.9 21.8 15.4 12.4 coverage on the stock with a BUY recommendation. P/BV 6.0 5.3 4.6 3.9 Favourable macro environment to help reduce payback period… RoNW (%) 14.2 16.9 16.0 17.2 With a higher disposable income and increase in discretionary spend, RoCE (%) 20.2 24.4 23.1 24.8 WHL has been able to increase its blended realisation at 11% CAGR in Stock Data FY10-15. Favourable demographics have enabled the company to maintain blended footfall of 7.7% CAGR (vs. 6% CAGR for amusement Particular Amount parks in Asia) in FY10-15. Further, with an in-house technical team and Market Capitalisation | 2198 crore controlled cost structure, WHL has maintained average EBITDA margin of Debt (FY 15) | 11 crore ~44% in FY10-15. Consequently, WHL has been able to reduce its Cash & cash equivalents (FY 15) | 203 crore payback period from nine years in Kochi to 7.5 years in Bengaluru. The EV | 2006 crore payback period in Hyderabad is expected to further reduce to 7 years. 52 week H/L 404/242 Hyderabad, Chennai park to aid growth Equity Capital | 56.5 crore Face value 10.0 The new Hyderabad park is expected to be operational by April 2016. The FII Holding (%) 9.1 park will be funded through IPO proceeds and internal accruals. With a DII Holding (%) 3.3 population of 1.2 crore in Hyderabad and per capita income of | 1,32,862 Comparative return matrix (%) (one of the highest in south India), this park is expected to witness robust Return % 1M3M6M12Mfootfalls and healthy realisation over the coming years. Apart from this, the company is also planning to open a new park in Chennai by FY19, Adlabs entertainment 10.3 2.8 (25.4) NA which is expected to further drive the company’s footfalls and revenues. Wonderla holidays 0.4 39.2 49.4 33.1 Best in class performance commands premium valuation Price movement WHL has consistently maintained an EBITDA margin of 44.0% (highest 10,000 500 among Indian and global peers). Further, we believe that a healthy balance sheet (0.03x D/E vs. 1.46x for Adlabs), strong cash flow 8,000 400 generation and revenue & EBITDA CAGR of 26.2% and 25.9%, 300 6,000 respectively, in FY15-18E demands premium valuations. We have arrived 200 at a DCF based target price of | 460 (representing 18% upside potential). 4,000 100 Exhibit 1: Financial summary 2,000 0 (| Crore) FY 14 FY 15 FY 16E FY 17E FY 18E Sep-14 May-15 Dec-15 Net Sales 153.6 181.9 220.9 315.4 365.3 Price (R.H.S) Nifty (L.H.S) EBITDA 70.3 80.6 98.9 135.8 161.0 EBITDA Margin (%) 45.8 44.3 44.8 43.1 44.1 Research Analysts Interest 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.3 0.7 Rashesh Shah Depreciation 13.2 16.2 16.5 36.9 37.2 [email protected] Net Profit 39.9 50.6 70.7 77.1 97.3 EPS (|) 9.5 9.2 12.5 13.6 17.2 Devang Bhatt RoCE (%) 33.9 20.2 24.4 23.1 24.8 [email protected] RoE (%) 26.6 14.2 16.9 16.0 17.2 Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Shareholding pattern Company background (in %) Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15 Wonderla Holidays (WHL) is one of the largest operators of amusement Promoter 71.0 71.0 71.0 71.0 parks in India. WHL operates and maintains two large amusement parks in FII 7.9 8.9 9.1 9.1 Bengaluru and Kochi. Wonderla Bengaluru was ranked No.1 in India and DII 2.1 1.9 2.0 3.3 No. 7 in Asia by tripadvisor for 2015. Wonderla Kochi was ranked No.2 in Others 19.0 18.2 17.9 16.5 India and No.9 in Asia by tripadvisor for 2015. The company launched its first amusement park in 2000 in Kochi and second amusement park in FII & DII holding trend (%) Bengaluru in 2005. The company is also setting up a new amusement park in the Ranga Reddy district of Telangana, which will start functioning 15 12.5 by April-16. Apart from amusement parks, Wonderla also owns a resort in 10.0 10.8 11.1 10 Bengaluru, Wonderla Resort. Out of the total revenues of | 182 crore in (%) FY15, Bengaluru contributed | 101 crore, Kochi contributed | 71 crore 5 while | 10 crore came from the resort. Exhibit 2: Wonderla Timeline - Q3FY15 Q4FY15 Q1FY16 Q2FY16 FII and DII 2012 Wonderla 2000 Wonderla resort 2016E Wondela Revenue bifurcation Kochi (Bengaluru) Hyderabad Resort, 5% Kochi, 2005 Wonderla 2014 Wonderla 2018E Wonderla 39% Bengaluru Holidays IPO Chennai Bengaluru , 56% Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research Exhibit 3: Wonderla offering Kochi amusement park Bengaluru amusement park Resort Hyderabad park Started in 2000 2005 2012 2016* Part of wonderla, Land area 93 acres 82 acres Bengaluru 50 acres Total rides: 62 Total rides: 59 Total rides: 43 Dry rides:39 Dry rides:39 - 3 star leisure resort Dry rides:NA Facilities Wet rides:23 Wet rides:20 - 84 luxury rooms Wet rides:NA Weekdays: Weekdays: Adult: | 720; Child: | 580 Adult: | 870; Child: | 680 Weekends and Holidays: Weekends and Holidays: Pricing expected to be in line with Entry fee Adult: | 900; Child: | 720 Adult: | 1070; Child: | 810 Tariff:|5,500–|6,500 Bengaluru park Fast track tickets double the Fast track tickets double the Fast track tickets double the normal Fast track rates normal rates normal rates NA rates Visitor capacity per day ~12,000 ~12,000 NA ~10,000 Visitors annually 11 lakh 12 lakh NA 7 lakh in FY17E 39 56 5 ~20% of total revenues in FY17E % of total revenues (FY15) Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research,* Hyderabad park to commission in April-16 ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Page 2 Wonderla Kochi Kochi park The company started its first amusement park in 2000 in Kochi called Veegaland. In April 2008, the Kochi park was renamed ‘Wonderla’. Wonderla Kochi is situated on 93.1 acres of land (of which 28.7 acres is occupied while the rest has been kept vacant for future rides). The amusement park has 62 rides of which 23 are wet rides and 39 dry rides. The company initially invested | 21.6 crore in 2000. As of FY15, total invested capital in the Kochi park was | 94.3 crore. In FY10-15, the company generated free cash flow of | 89.1 crore. As of FY15, EBITDA margins were at 38%. Kochi’s footfall and realisation have grown at 4.1% Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research and 12.0% CAGR in FY10-15 leading to revenue CAGR of 16.6% over the same period. Exhibit 4: Kochi realisation grows at CAGR of 12.0% in FY10-15 Exhibit 5: Footfall grows at CAGR of 4.1% in FY10-15 655 700 14 11.8 12.1 564 11.1 11.0 10.9 600 12 488 8.9 500 435 10 372 385 400 8 (%) 300 6 200 (in Lakhs) 4 100 2 0 0 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 Wonderla Kochi Wonderla Kochi Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research Exhibit 6: Kochi revenues grow at CAGR of 16.6% in FY10-15 Exhibit 7: EBITDA margin at 38% in FY15 80 71.4 30 27.8 27.5 27.4 60 62.2 23.9 70 59.1 25 22.8 50 60 51.3 20 40 50 42.8 15.2 40 33.2 15 (%) 30 (| crore) 30 (| crore) 10 20 20 10 5 10 0 0 - FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 Revenues EBITDA EBITDA margin Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research Exhibit 8: Kochi Park Exhibit 9: Kochi Park Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Page 3 Wonderla Bengaluru Wonderla Bengaluru The company opened its second park in Bengaluru in 2005.
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