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Frictional, Structural, and Cyclical Factors in Louisiana Unemployment. Jeffrey Alan Reed Louisiana State University and Agricultural & Mechanical College

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Frictional, Structural, and Cyclical Factors in Louisiana Unemployment. Jeffrey Alan Reed Louisiana State University and Agricultural & Mechanical College Louisiana State University LSU Digital Commons LSU Historical Dissertations and Theses Graduate School 1976 Frictional, Structural, and Cyclical Factors in Louisiana Unemployment. Jeffrey Alan Reed Louisiana State University and Agricultural & Mechanical College Follow this and additional works at: https://digitalcommons.lsu.edu/gradschool_disstheses Recommended Citation Reed, Jeffrey Alan, "Frictional, Structural, and Cyclical Factors in Louisiana Unemployment." (1976). LSU Historical Dissertations and Theses. 2984. https://digitalcommons.lsu.edu/gradschool_disstheses/2984 This Dissertation is brought to you for free and open access by the Graduate School at LSU Digital Commons. It has been accepted for inclusion in LSU Historical Dissertations and Theses by an authorized administrator of LSU Digital Commons. For more information, please contact [email protected]. INFORMATION TO USERS This material was produced from a microfilm copy of the original document. While the most advanced technological means to photograph and reproduce this document have been used, the quality is heavily dependent upon the quality of the original subm itted. The following explanation of techniques is provided to help you understand markings or patterns which may appear on this reproduction. 1. The sign or "target” for pages apparently lacking from the document photographed is "Missing Page(s)". If it was possible to obtain the missing page(s) or section, they are spliced into the film along with adjacent pages. This may have necessitated cutting thru an image and duplicating adjacent pages to insure you complete continuity. 2. When an image on the film is obliterated with a large round black mark, it is an indication that the photographer suspected that the copy may have moved during exposure and thus cause a blurred image. You will find a good image of the page in the adjacent frame. 3. When a map, drawing or chart, etc., was part of the material being photographed the photographer followed a definite method in "sectioning" the material. It is customary to begin photoing at the upper left hand corner of a large sheet and to continue photoing from left to right in equal sections with a small overlap. If necessary, sectioning is continued again — beginning below the first row and continuing on until com plete. 4. The majority of users indicate that the textual content is of greatest value, however, a somewhat higher quality reproduction could be made from "photographs" if essential to the understanding of the dissertation. Silver prints of "photographs" may be ordered at additional charge by writing the Order Department, giving the catalog number, title, author and specific pages you wish reproduced. 5. P L E A S E NOTE: Some pages may have indistinct print. Filmed as received. Xerox University Microfilms 300 North Zeeb Road Ann Arbor, Michigan 48106 76-28,825 REED, Jeffrey Alan, 1948- FRICTIONAL, STRUCTURAL, AND CYCLICAL FACTORS IN LOUISIANA UNEMPLOYMENT. The Louisiana State University and Agricultural and Mechanical College, Ph.D., 1976 Economics, general Xerox University Microfilms,Ann Arbor, Michigan 48106 FRICTIONAL, STRUCTURAL, AND CYCLICAL FACTORS IN LOUISIANA UNEMPLOYMENT A DISSERTATION Submitted to the Graduate Faculty of the Louisiana State University and Agricultural and Mechanical College in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in The Department of Economics by Jeffrey A. Reed B.A., Western Washington State College, 1971 August, 1976 "All your anxiety is because of a desire for harmony . seek disharmony, then you will find peace" — 12th Century Persian Poet, cited in William 0. Douglas, Go East Young Man ii For Janet Eileen Trulson, who would have believed the Persian; and especially for her sister Susan, who does not. iii ACKNOWLEDGMENTS The author wishes to express his gratitude to Professor Lamar B. Jones, Loren C . Scott, G. Randolph Rice, James Richardson, Carolyn Hargrave, and James P. Payne of Louisiana State University for their assistance in the completion of this study. He is also grateful to Dr. Geneva B. Carroll of the Louisiana Office of State Planning and Dr. Fred Wrighton of the Louisiana Occupational Training Information System for much valuable assistance in the procurement and interpre­ tation of the available data on job vacancies and unemployment. Mary Jo Brooks proved to be invaluable as an efficient and speedy typist. Sam and Mattilyn Fraser deserve special thanks from a grate­ ful and impecunious house guest. Some financial support for the study was received from the Public Affairs Research Council of Louisiana. iv TABLE OF CONTENTS Page ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS................... iv LIST OF TABLES .......... viii LIST OF FIGURES ................. x ABSTRACT ........................ xi Chapter 1. SOME PROBLEMS AND ISSUES ............................... 1 Some Economic Problems ..... ...................... 1 Some Public Policy Issues ............... 3 2. THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK: TYPES OF UNEMPLOYMENT AND THEIR MEASUREMENT ........... ...... 9 Unemployment in General ................... 9 Types of Unemployment ......... ............... 13 Measurement of the Unemployment Types ................. 18 The Indirect Measures ............... 18 Direct Measures ................... 21 3. THE DATA ........................ 32 The Job Vacancy Data ................. 32 The Unemployment Data ................. 36 Some Problems with the Data ................. 43 4. FRICTIONAL UNEMPLOYMENT IN LOUISIANA ................... 55 The Indirect Evidence ............. 56 v Chapter Page Short-Term Unemployment in Louisiana .................. 56 Voluntary Unemployment in Louisiana ......... .. 59 Seasonal Unemployment in Louisiana .... ........... 62 The Direct Evidence . ......... ............ 65 Some Implications ............. ....... ......... 79 5. STRUCTURAL UNEMPLOYMENT IN LOUISIANA ............. 80 The Indirect Evidence ................. 81 Long-Term Unemployment in Louisiana ........... 81 Trends in the Occupational Composition of Louisiana Employment . ............................. 84 The Direct Evidence ............. ......... 95 Some Implications .............. ......... 128 6. CYCLICAL UNEMPLOYMENT IN LOUISIANA ...................... 131 The Indirect Evidence ...... ............. .... 131 The Direct Evidence ..... ....... 134 Some Implications . .............................. 135 7. DISTRIBUTIONAL EFFECTS: THE DEMOGRAPHIC INCIDENCE OF FRICTIONAL, STRUCTURAL, AND CYCLICAL FACTORS IN LOUISIANA UNEMPLOYMENT ................. 137 The Demographic Incidence of Frictional Unemployment in Louisiana ............... 137 The Indirect Evidence ........... ......... 138 The Direct Evidence ................. 143 The Demographic Incidence of Structural Unemployment in Louisiana ............... 147 The Indirect Evidence ........ ............. 147 The Direct Evidence .......... ............. 154 vi Chapter Page The Demographic Incidence of Cyclical Unemployment in Louisiana ........................ 156 The Indirect Evidence ................................. 156 The Direct Evidence . ............................ 159 Some Implications ............................. 161 8. SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS ................................... 164 Suggestions for Future Research ............ 172 SELECTED BIBLIOGRAPHY .......... 175 APPENDIX ....... ............................................ 182 VITA ......................................................... 229 vii LIST OF TABLES Page TAXONOMY OF UNEMPLOYMENT BY SOURCE AND DURATION . 15 INDICATORS OF VOLUNTARY UNEMPLOYMENT IN LOUISIANA NOVEMBER, 1973 ........... ........................ 60 SEASONALITY OF LOUISIANA UNEMPLOYMENT: DERIVATION OF SEASONAL INDICES ........... ........... 63 FRICTIONAL UNEMPLOYMENT IN LOUISIANA NOVEMBER, 1973 ......... ..... 68 OCCUPATIONAL COMPOSITION OF LOUISIANA EMPLOYMENT: HISTORICAL AND PROJECTED TRENDS ..... ........... 86 COMPARISON OF EMPLOYMENT GROWTH AND UNEMPLOYMENT RATES 94 SUMMARY OF EXCESS LABOR SUPPLIES IN LOUISIANA BY MAJOR OCCUPATIONAL GROUPS, NOVEMBER 1973 ........... 97 EXCESS LABOR SUPPLIES BY GED RATINGS NOVEMBER, 1973 ......... .............................. 106 EXCESS LABOR SUPPLIES BY SVP RATINGS NOVEMBER, 1973 ........... .. ......................... 107 SUMMARY OF EXCESS LABOR DEMANDS IN LOUISIANA BY MAJOR OCCUPATIONAL GROUP, NOVEMBER, 1973 ......... 110 EXCESS LABOR DEMANDS BY GED RATINGS NOVEMBER, 1973 ........................................ 118 EXCESS LABOR DEMANDS BY SVP RATINGS NOVEMBER, 1973 ............. .. ...................... 122 GED AND SVP CORRELATIONS WITH EXCESS LABOR DEMANDS AND SUPPLIES, NOVEMBER, 1973 ...... 124 COMPARISON OF STRUCTURAL UNEMPLOYMENT WITH HISTORICAL AND PROJECTED EMPLOYMENT TRENDS ........... 126 viii Table Page 6.1 CYCLICAL UNEMPLOYMENT IN LOUISIANA, NOVEMBER, 1973 . 135 7.1 SHORT TERM UNEMPLOYMENT IN LOUISIANA BY RACE AND SEX, NOVEMBER, 1973 ............. 139 7.2 INDICATORS OF VOLUNTARY UNEMPLOYMENT IN LOUISIANA BY RACE AND SEX, NOVEMBER, 1973 ................. 141 7.3 DEMOGRAPHIC CORRELATES OF FRICTIONAL UNEMPLOYMENT IN LOUISIANA ,NOVEMBER, L973 144 7.4 VERY LONG TERM UNEMPLOYMENT IN LOUISIANA BY RACE AND SEX ...................... 149 7.5 DEMOGRAPHIC CORRELATES OF HISTORICAL AND FORECASTED TRENDS IN THE OCCUPATIONAL COMPOSITION OF LOUISIANA EMPLOYMENT ....... .................................. 152 7.6 COMPARISON OF OVERALL AND DEMOGRAPHIC UNEMPLOYMENT RATES, 1950, 1960, AND 1970 ...................... 157 8.1 RECAPITULATION: FRICTIONAL, STRUCTURAL, AND CYCLICAL FACTORS IN LOUISIANA UNEMPLOYMENT,
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