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Synoptic Control of Mesoscale Precipitating Systems in the Pacific Northwest

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Synoptic Control of Mesoscale Precipitating Systems in the Pacific Northwest SEPTEMBER 2008 ROEBBERETAL. 3465 Synoptic Control of Mesoscale Precipitating Systems in the Pacific Northwest PAUL J. ROEBBER,KYLE L. SWANSON, AND JUGAL K. GHORAI Department of Mathematical Sciences, University of Wisconsin—Milwaukee, Milwaukee, Wisconsin (Manuscript received 22 May 2007, in final form 14 January 2008) ABSTRACT This research examines whether an adequate representation of flow features on the synoptic scale allows for the skillful inference of mesoscale precipitating systems. The focus is on the specific problem of land- falling systems on the west coast of the United States for a variety of synoptic types that lead to significant rainfall. The methodology emphasizes rigorous hypothesis testing within a controlled hindcast setting to quantify the significance of the results. The role of lateral boundary conditions is explicitly accounted for by the study. The hypotheses that (a) uncertainty in the large-scale analysis and (b) upstream buffer size have no impact on the skill of precipitation simulations are each rejected at a high level of confidence, with the results showing that mean precipitation skill is higher where low analysis uncertainty exists and for small nested grids. This indicates that an important connection exists between the quality of the synoptic infor- mation and predictability at the mesoscale in this environment, despite the absence of such information in the initialization or boundary conditions. Further, the flow-through of synoptic information strongly con- strains the evolution of the mesoscale such that a small upstream buffer produces superior results consistent with the higher quality of the information crossing the boundary. Some preliminary evidence that synoptic type has an influence on precipitation skill is also found. The implications of these results for data assim- ilation, forecasting, and climate modeling are discussed. 1. Introduction however, since precipitation is a sensible weather ele- ment of primary concern to consumers of weather in- An important class of unresolved questions in me- formation. Additionally, such information is of value to teorology concerns the extent to which a given scale of studies of regional climate. atmospheric motion influences the evolution of fea- Since forecast models are largely unconstrained by tures on other scales. A subset of these questions con- observations on the meso-␤ and ␥ scales, any skill these sists of the interaction between motions on the synoptic models exhibit on these scales must result from a down- scale and evolving precipitating systems on the meso- scale cascade of information. Successful inference of scale. These precipitating systems, characterized by the mesoscale thus resolves around the extent to which spatial scales of O(2–100 km) and time scales of O(1–6 synoptic scales “control” the evolution of mesoscale h), are unresolved by existing global forecast models. features, that is, the extent to which these mesoscale Further, the precipitation is poorly sampled since it falls features are slaved to features originating on the syn- outside the routine observational network, except optic scale. This control may include flow interactions where ground-truthed radars are available [but see with in situ mesoscale forcing such as topography as Westrick et al. (1999) for the limitations of radar, owing well as the evolution of mesoscale systems that develop to sensor location, terrain blockage, and shallow pre- within the constraints of the synoptic environment. Evi- cipitation effects in the U.S. Pacific Northwest]. These dence for this emergence from the synoptic background systems are of vital importance to the forecast problem, has been found for mesoscale convective systems (Roebber et al. 2002; Fowle and Roebber 2003; Done et al. 2004; Kain et al. 2006), and for landfalling systems in Corresponding author address: Paul J. Roebber, Dept. of Math- ematical Sciences, University of Wisconsin—Milwaukee, Milwau- the western United States (e.g., Mass et al. 2002). In this kee, WI 53211. work, we address in detail the extent to which an ad- E-mail: [email protected] equate representation of flow features on the synoptic DOI: 10.1175/2008MWR2264.1 © 2008 American Meteorological Society Unauthenticated | Downloaded 10/01/21 12:56 PM UTC MWR2264 3466 MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW VOLUME 136 scale implies skillful simulation of precipitation for inevitably contaminate the interior of the domain, com- landfalling systems on the U.S. west coast. This ap- promising the veracity of the mesoscale detail. Finally, proach, where the large scales are specified as accurate- it may well be that the ability of the mesoscale model to ly as possible and the mesoscale precipitating structures reproduce mesoscale features from synoptic input will that emerge from the nested model physics are exam- depend on the type of system itself. ined, is most accurately viewed as a data assimilation In this research, we control for the aforementioned rather than a forecast study. factors in a statistically rigorous manner. The work is A broad variety of landfalling systems leads to sig- carried out in a controlled hindcast setting, emphasizing nificant rainfall along the U.S. west coast (e.g., Heggli independent verification with observed precipitation and Rauber 1988; Bond et al. 1997), including (i) cy- data to quantify the significance of the results. Such an clones linked to the large-scale subtropical flow (the emphasis is crucial, as evaluating mesoscale simulations so-called Pineapple Express), (ii) mature cyclones in relatively data-rich regions is difficult in its own right. propagating from the west in association with strong Separating initial condition errors, LBC errors due to short waves and an intense polar jet over the western the placement of boundaries of the nested grid model Pacific, and (iii) postfrontal convection often associated itself, and error by type of synoptic system represents with the passage of relatively weak wave disturbances. an ambitious set of objectives but for which the payoff In each of these cases, precipitation production is is a significant advance in our understanding of the strongly influenced by topographic interaction (Parsons transfer of information from the synoptic to the meso- and Hobbs 1983; Colle and Mass 1996; Steenburgh and scale, the dynamics of error growth in landfalling sys- Mass 1996; Doyle 1997; Colle et al. 1999; Mass et al. tems, and the ability of mesoscale models to “fill in” 2002). As such, it is reasonable to suppose that the details absent from larger-scale models. As such, the mesoscale signatures of these systems are largely gov- results are of direct interest to data assimilation, where erned by the fidelity of information provided at the filling in the gaps in the synoptic-scale analysis is of synoptic scale. obvious value. But likewise, these results have some Of course, there are a number of issues that must be relevance to short-term weather forecasting, where the addressed that in principle may invalidate this idea. The ability of nested models to glean extra information on primary tool of this research, the fifth-generation Penn- the mesoscale from a global synoptic-scale forecast is sylvania State University–National Center for Atmo- desirable, and to climate modeling, where computa- spheric Research Mesoscale Model (MM5), is a nested tional limits make it advantageous to focus resources grid model, and some studies have suggested that lat- toward running high-resolution simulations only in ar- eral boundary conditions (LBCs) may have a deleteri- eas where they are truly necessary. ous effect upon the ability of mesoscale models to simu- The outline of the paper is as follows. In section 2, we late small-scale structures (e.g., Warner et al. 1997). describe the mesoscale model that will be used to simu- Further, the growth of errors from the initial state could late the landfalling systems. In section 3, statistical tech- overwhelm the ability of the nested model to accurately niques that will isolate the relative contributions of simulate mesoscale structures. Initial condition error various error sources are discussed, while in section 4 growth has been a topic of extreme interest for global the results of this analysis are presented. Section 5 pro- models for some time (e.g., Lorenz 1982; Simmons et al. vides a concluding discussion of the scientific issues. 1995; and many others), and recent studies have exam- ined its effect in mesoscale models (e.g., Du et al. 1997; 2. Mesoscale model Hamill and Colucci 1998; Stensrud et al. 2000; Grimit and Mass 2002; Eckel and Mass 2005; Zhang et al. 2006; The fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University– Grimit and Mass 2007; Hohenegger and Schar 2007). National Center for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale When initializing with information only on synoptic Model (MM5), a nonhydrostatic, multinested primitive scales, errors in specifying the mesoscale are inevitable. equation model (Dudhia 1993; Grell et al. 1994), is used If these errors project onto structures that grow rapidly, in this study. It has been employed extensively by the the mesoscale simulation will be contaminated and its research community for case studies and real-time ability to represent precipitating structures on the me- simulations of phenomena ranging from the cyclone soscale lost. In addition, the ability to simulate the me- scale (e.g., Dudhia 1993; Kuo et al. 1995; Roebber and soscale structure will depend upon the flow of accurate Reuter 2002) to the meso-␤ and ␥ scales [2–200 km; synoptic-scale information through the boundaries into e.g., Bresch et al. (1997); Powers (1997); Colle and Mass the mesoscale domain. Large errors in the specification (2000); Roebber et al. (2002)]. of those boundary conditions on the synoptic scale will The MM5 incorporates a number of well-tested phys- Unauthenticated | Downloaded 10/01/21 12:56 PM UTC SEPTEMBER 2008 ROEBBERETAL. 3467 FIG.1.The“front half” hemispheric domain, with 120-km grid spacing, is indicated by the outer boundaries of the map. The large and small nests, with 15-km grid spacing, are indicated by the boldface squares.
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