The Role of Coherence in the Development of Ideologies: a Case Study of Conservative Thought on Immigration from 1995 to 2000 Di
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The Role of Coherence in the Development of Ideologies: A Case Study of Conservative Thought on Immigration from 1995 to 2000 Dissertation Presented in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree Doctor of Philosophy in the Graduate School of The Ohio State University By Sergio Pablo D´ıaz Sierra, B.A. Graduate Program in Political Science The Ohio State University 2017 Dissertation Committee: William Minozzi, Advisor and Co-chair Jack R. Wright, Co-chair Gregory A. Caldeira Michael Neblo Copyright by Sergio Pablo D´ıaz Sierra 2017 Abstract How are ideologies created and how do they develop? Noel points to ideological elites and public intellectuals as responsible for the development of ideologies. Through deliberation and debate with each other, they help define, clarify, and explain what their ideological allies should believe and why. However, what precisely happens as they engage in this process remains a mystery. In this dissertation, I propose a resolution to this mystery by suggesting that the development of ideologies is one of a persistent drive to improve coherence. Coherence is a cognitive property; it is the degree to which elements in belief systems make sense together (Thagard, 2000). Through coherence, we make sense of competing explanations of the world. In saying that ideologies develop as their coherence improves, I place ideology at the center of how individuals interact with the political world. Contrary to the claims of those who suggest ideological language serves as little more than marketing or rationalization for power coalitions of elite interests (e.g., Aldrich, 1995; Converse, 2006; Bawn et al., 2012; Zaller, 1992), I argue that ideology is central to how we as people perceive and interact with politics. Ideological beliefs cannot be easily abandoned or revised without changes to the underlying belief systems of their adopters. These beliefs are sincerely held, and their presence helps people navigate the why’s and how’s of politics. Using data from conservative political magazines published between 1995 and 2000, I provide evidence that conservative thought on immigration developed through a process of coherence improvement. Conservatives adopted a threat narrative that ii portrayed immigrants as dangerous to themselves and American culture and as undeserving burdens to the welfare state. These feelings, combined with preexisting positions against welfare spending and policies designed to promote racial diversity, lead conservatives, and consequently the Republican Party, to adopt increasingly restrictive positions on immigration. These restrictionist positions and the arguments that underlie them became more coherent over time, overcoming objections from libertarians and business conservatives who had more positive views about the benefits of immigration. The findings in this dissertation are a step forward for the study of ideology. First, this dissertation provides a test of the theory that ideological constraint arises out of the elite discourse. While Noel (2014) proposes this idea he never tests it directly. Instead, he limits himself to providing evidence that constraint arises in the media before it arises in Congress. While such evidence is consistent with the ideology-as-constraint, it also leaves open other possibilities, including that parties try out arguments in the media before importing them to Congress. This dissertation tests the primary mechanism: creative synthesis. I show that deliberation and discussion lead to ideological constraint by pushing public intellectuals to improve the coherence of their beliefs. Second, in examining ideology as sincerely-held belief systems, I challenge theorists like Aldrich (1995), who view ideology as a tool to market and manipulate a political coalition. Contrary to these theorists, I argue that ideologies reflect the worldviews of elites and, as such, they constrain elites’ actions. Evidence of such constraint has implications for our understanding of politics. If belief systems constrain elites, their ability to deviate from previously stated positions should be less than expected under other theories (Bawn et al., 2012). Ideological change, I argue, should reflect not just a shift in strategic considerations (a way to get more votes, for example), but a change in underlying beliefs. If a change in iii ideology requires belief revision, this means that coherent ideologies are sticky and likely to persist even after they become a political liability. iv Dedico esta tesis doctoral a mis padres, abuelos, hermana y amigos. Sin ustedes esto no hubiera sido posible. Cantar nos gusta unidos. v Acknowledgements I wish to acknowledge some of the people who have helped so much in my graduate career and dissertation. Without their support, this project would not exist. First, I want to thank my dissertation committee. I thank my advisor, William Minozzi. His feedback, advice, and guidance have been invaluable. His encouragement gave me the confidence to explore methods and theory outside the Political Science mainstream, and with his help, I was able to distinguish between useful diversions and never-ending rabbit holes. My exploration of coherence, Thagard’s work, and other concepts in this project owe a lot to his patience, understanding, and guiding hand. I also want to thank him for his personal support. Above and beyond his responsibilities as a program advisor, Minozzi took care to make sure I was well. He helped me lead a healthy life within and outside academia. He helped me, period. I thank Professor Jack Wright for his mentorship. Without his focus and helpful hand, I doubt this project would exist. When I was lost or confused he gave me advice on how to best approach problems and solve them. When it appeared that this project was heading to the waste-bin his experience and expertise helped me organize and execute the ideas I had. I consider myself blessed and lucky to have had him in my corner, and I don’t doubt that his influence will shape my future successes. I thank Professor Gregory Caldeira. His persistence that I explain things in “bone-headed English” was indispensable. It kept me honest, and it helped my writing make sense. I also want to thank him for his help in refining the words in this project. vi I look forward to applying his lessons in my future endeavors. I thank Professor Michael Neblo. His enthusiastic support for this project motivated me to work through the numerous challenges I faced in pursuing it. His help in understanding concepts and ideas alien to me was invaluable, and his introduction to the literature on inferentialism as a concept was illuminating. Most importantly, however, his unexpected but always welcome, praise was invaluable when I felt like I was falling behind. Second, I want to thank my friends in the department. In particular, I want to thank Jakob Miller. When we first met during recruitment, you reminded me of the picture of a “Man / Hombre” in my first grade English class book: a blond, farm boy in a plaid shirt. I hope you forgive me, but I didn’t think people like that existed. After a few words, and Johnny Cash lyrics, I knew I had to be your friend. Your support, your advice, your spell-checking and revisions, your questions and suggestions, and your willingness to always be there when I needed help ... I would say I don’t have the words to thank you, but that’s not true. You are what back home I would call buena gente (good people), and I hope I was buena gente to you as well. I thank Kailash Srinivasan. I appreciated having another second-generation immigrant as a roommate, particularly one who was fluent in left-wing romanticism. I just wish that you were less of a traitor. For all your talk of solidarity and brotherhood, you always managed to turn the room against me during our board game weekends. Cardboard betrayals aside, you understood me and you were a pillar of strength I could lean on. Thanks for being there, thanks for not telling me to stop texting you. I thank Carolyn Morgan. You were my neighbor, you baked me cookies and gave me pickled hot peppers, your home was open for the holidays I spent away from vii home. I thank you for jumping the train tracks with me to watch f´utbol when we lived next to the stadium. I thank you for being the calm voice of reason and the grown-up in the room. I also want to thank Gaby Lloyd, Rune “Tire Iron” Docking, Matt Washer, Lauren Ratliff, and Peter Tunkis (I’m sure we’ll meet for war games someday). You are all great people and I’m glad to have known you all as friends and colleagues. Third, I want to thank the people in the Department of Political Science at the Ohio State University. Charles Smith and Courtney Sanders in the office, thanks for helping me make sense of all the academic arcana. Professor McGraw, Lauren Elliot, Will Massengill, Brianna Mack, and Allison Craig, thank you for your feedback during the APDW series. Finally, I want to thank my family. Mom and Dad, Noem´ıandJes´us, thanks for trying to instill a sense of responsibility and discipline in me. I think it worked somewhat. Thanks for the value you placed on my education, for tolerating my weirdness, for supporting my decision to change majors. Thanks Mom for being so caring, even if sometimes it annoyed me. Thank you Dad, the last couple of years your support has been incredible and I wouldn’t have made it without you. Edna Cristina, my sister, you will always be the older sibling. Thanks for taking care of your little brother. By the way, since I’m also a doctor now, we still have to figure out who’s smarter. To Abuela Eva, I’ll always give you a hug.