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Gaasituru Liberaliseerimine Eestis Liberalisation of The Eleringi toimetised nr 2/2011 Kadaka tee 42, 12915 Tallinn telefon: 715 1222 faks: 715 1200 e-post: [email protected] www.elering.ee Eleringi toimetised nr 2/2011 Eleringi toimetised GAASITURU LIBERALISEERIMINE LIBERALISATION OF GAASITURU THE ESTONIAN GAS LIBERALISEERIMINE MARKET EESTIS A report prepared by Pöyry Eleringi poolt tellitud raport Management Consulting (UK) Ltd konsultatsioonibüroolt for Elering AS Pöyry Management E ESTIS Consulting (UK) Ltd Tallinn 2011 WWW.POYRY.COM Hea lugeja Globaalsel gaasiturul on viimastel aastatel leidnud aset olulised muutused. Maagaas on muutu- mas järjest atraktiivsemaks energiakandjaks ning gaasiturg oluliselt mitmekesisemaks ja likviidse- maks mittekonventsionaalse gaasi reservide kaustusele võtmise, veeldatud gaasi transportimise võimaluste avardumise, kliimapoliitika ja tuumaohutuse reeglite karmistumise tõttu. Gaas primaarkütusena on paljude riikide energiapoliitikas liikumas üheks keskseks lahenduseks. Eesti peab senisest oluliselt enam analüüsima nii majanduse konkurentsivõime, kliimapoliitiliste ees- märkide saavutamise kui ka energiajulgeoleku seisukohalt neid võimalusi, mida gaasi laialdasem kasutamine endas kätkeb. Lähtuvalt Euroopa Liidu kolmandas energiaturu paketis sätestatust peavad 2014. aastast toimima Euroopa ühtsed elektri- ja gaasiturud. Põhieesmärk on tekitada gaasisektoris efektiivne konkurents ning võrdne kohtlemine kõigile osapooltele. Selle saavutamise keskse lahendusena on pakutud välja ülekandevõrkude omandiline lahutamine tootmisest ja müügist. Kuigi Eestile on antud direktiivi omandilise eristamise nõudes erand, ei ole see keelava iseloomuga ja siseriikliku õigusega on võimalik sätestada direktiiviga analoogsed normid, kui need osutuvad Eesti energiavarustuskindluse seisukohalt otstarbekaks. Omandilise eraldamise nõude otstarbe- kust Eestis on kinnitanud Konkurentsiamet, mis 2009. aasta Eesti elektri- ja gaasituru aruandes asus seisukohale, et konkurentsi tekkimiseks gaasiturul ning varustuskindluse tagamise eden- damiseks oleks oluline samm müüjast ja importijast sõltumatu gaasi ülekandevõrgu ettevõtte moodustamine. Vabariigi Valitsus tegi 2010. aasta lõpul Elering AS-ile ülesandeks kujundada ettevõttes välja maagaasialane kompetents, arvestades energiavarustuskindluse Globaalsel gaasiturul leiavad tagamise eesmärgil vajadust elektri- ja gaasiturgude aset olulised muutused, integreeritud modelleerimiseks ja käsitlemiseks. mis on juba oluliselt gaasi atraktiivsust suurendanud. Ühe osana Vabariigi Valitsuse poolt seatud ülesande täitmiseks tellis Elering konkursi korras globaalselt Gaasimajanduse paremaks tunnustatud energeetika valdkonna ekspertorgani- korraldamiseks telliti satsioonilt Pöyry Management Consulting (UK) Ltd raport Eesti maagaasi turu raporti Eesti maagaasi turu arendamise eeldustest, arendamise eeldustest, võimalustest ja mõjudest. võimalustest ja mõjudest. Käesolevas Eleringi Toimetiste teises numbris teeme koostatud raporti avalikkusele kättesaadavaks koos alljärgnevate meiepoolsete kommentaaridega, mis tiheda koostöö käigus Pöyryga esile kerkisid. ÜLEKANDESÜSTEEMIDE TÄIELIK OMANDILINE ERALDAMINE Eesti gaasisüsteem on ajalooliselt olnud orgaaniline perifeerne osa Venemaa maagaasisüsteemist. Siinse gaasivõrgu kõigi kolme ülepiirilise ühenduse kaudu oleme otse või kaudselt seotud Venemaa ühtse gaasisüsteemiga. Eesti territooriumil puuduvad nii maagaasi tootmise kui ka hoiustamise võimalused. Seega on vastutus Eesti gaasisüsteemi varustatuse ja reguleerimise eest sisuliselt meie naaberriigi süsteemihalduri ehk Gazprom OAO kätes. Lisaks Eesti gaasisüsteemi tehnilisele seotusele sõltuvad Eesti gaasitarbijad Gazpromist ka gaasitarnete osas, kuna Vene Föderatsioonis on eksklusiivne maagaasi eksportimise õigus antud Gazpromile. Selleks, et Eestis õnnestuks asuda gaasiturgu arendama, on esmane ja vältimatu samm eristada omandiliselt täielikult põhivõrguettevõtjast süsteemihaldur vertikaalselt integreeritud gaasi- monopolist AS Eesti Gaas. Nagu ütleb Direktiivi 2009/73/EÜ preambula, „kui võrke ei eraldata tegelikult tootmis- ja tarnetegevustest („tegelik eraldamine”), on oht, et võrke mitte üksnes ei kasutata diskrimineerival viisil, vaid vertikaalselt integreeritud ettevõtjatel puudub ka stiimul oma võrkudesse piisavalt investeerida“. Senine praktika Euroopas ja Eestis on näidanud, et äärmiselt konsolideerunud ja monopoolse sek- tori üle kontrolli saavutamiseks jääb riigi tavapärasest regulaatori rollist sageli väheseks. Riik vajab energiaturgude toimimise tagamiseks lisaks efektiivsele regulaatorile ka avalikus huvis tegutseva põhivõrguomanikust süsteemihalduri olemasolu. Kui Eesti riik soovib olla osaline Euroopa ener- giasüsteemide ja -turgude tuleviku üle toimuvates aruteludes, siis peavad põhivõrguettevõtted olema Euroopa Liidu poolt seatud eesmärkide saavutamiseks üha enam riigi poolt otseselt või kaudselt kontrollitavad kvaasiriiklikud organisatsioonid, mis täidavad kombineeritult nii avalikke kui ka eraõiguslikke ülesandeid otsest turuhuvi omamata. Ainult kahe samaaegselt töötava hoova – toimivate regulatsioonide ja põhivõrguettevõtjast süsteemihalduri omamise – kaudu on riigil võimalik tagada efektiivsed energiaturud. Ülekandevõrgu eraldamine AS-ist Eesti Gaas on konkurentsi tekkimise esmane eeldus. Gaasituru edasine arendamine ja gaasi kasutamise laiendamine realiseerub tõenäoliselt ainult juhul, kui gaasi põhivõrk kuulub Eesti Vabariigile. MAAGAASI KASUTUSALADE MITMEKESISTAMINE Gaasi keskkonnasõbralikkus ehk madal süsinikuheide teiste fossiilsete kütustega võrreldes, tema kasutamise mugavus ja kõrge efektiivsus ning viimasel ajal eelpool kirjeldatud arengud globaalsel gaasiturul on muutnud maagaasi atraktiivseks kütuseks. Mitmes arenenud riigis peetakse maagaasi järgmistel kümnenditel „sildkütuseks“, mis lubab asendada kõrge süsinikuheitega fossiilseid kütuseid seniks, kuni inimkonnal on võimalik üle minna täielikult kliimaneutraalsetele energiaallikatele. A-4 Samal ajal pole Eesti riik energiajulgeoleku ja varustuskindluse kaalutlustest lähtuvalt saanud viimastel aastatel maagaasi laialdasemat kasutamist toetada. Monopoolse gaasituru tingimustes pole mõeldav liigne energeetiline sõltuvus Euroopa Liidu väliseriigi ühe tarnija poolt müüdavast kütusest. Eesti maagaasi turul on tekkinud teatud „muna-kana“ dilemma, kus ühelt poolt on gaasituru väiksuse tõttu vähe huvilisi, kes sooviks siin gaasi müüa, teisalt on ühe tarnija ja ühe tarneahela tõttu maagaasi laiem kasutamine piiratud. Selle dilemma murdmiseks on vaja paralleelselt astuda põhjalikult läbi kaalutud samme nii maagaasile uute kasutusalade leidmiseks kui ka alternatiivsete tarneahelate arendamise ja uute müüjate turule tulemise toetamiseks. Võimalused maagaasi kasutamise laiendamiseks: väävliemissioonide drastiline piiramine meretranspordis pärast 2015. aastat – maagaasi kasutuselevõtt laevakütusena; sarnane suund emissioonide vähendamisele maismaatranspordis; soojamajanduses põlevkiviõli asendamine gaasiga peale 2017. aastat, kui põlevkiviõli tootmine lõpeb; põlevkivi järk-järguline asendamine elektritootmisel maagaasiga 2020-ndatel, kui põlevkivi tolmpõletusplokid tööst välja langevad. UUTE TARNEAHELATE RAJAMINE Maagaasituru areng saab toimuda vaid läbi uute gaasimüüjate turuletulemise. Kuna Eesti turg eraldivõetuna on arvestatavate tegijate huvi pälvimiseks väike, siis peitub vastus turgude ühendamises. Lisaks riikidevaheliste uute ühenduste rajamisele ning olemasolevate laiendamisele tuleb Eestil ja tema naabritel luua võimalused uute, Gazpromile alternatiivsete gaasimüüjate turule pääsemi- seks. Selleks on kaks tõsiseltvõetavamat võimalust – gaasitarned Poolast kõigisse Baltimaadesse läbi loodava Poola-Leedu ühenduse või siinsesse regiooni veeldatud gaasi terminali rajamine. Soovitatav on rajada kogu Balti regiooni varustav keskmise suurusega veeldatud gaasi terminal. Projekti teostatavuse huvides võib esimeses etapis olla põhjendatud välja ehitada kohaliku tähtsu- sega väike terminal. Veeldatud gaasi terminali rajamine on üks element Eesti maagaasituru arendamise protsessis. Detailsemate hinnangute andmiseks terminali asukohale, suurusele, maksumusele, veeldatud gaasi hinnale on vaja läbi viia veeldatud gaasi terminali rajamise teostatavus- ja tasuvushinnang. Kindel on aga, et veeldatud gaasi terminali rajamine on kõige reaalsem viis avada ligipääs teiste gaasimüüjate jaoks Balti riikide ja Soome ühisele gaasiturule. A-5 Maagaasi varustuskindluse parandamiseks ning konkurentsi loomiseks tuleb Eesti gaasiturg ühendada piiranguteta Soome ja Läti turgudega. Parim võimalus uutel gaasitarnijatel turule pääsemiseks on regioonis veeldatud gaasi vastuvõtu ning taasgaasistamise võimekuse olemasolu. Regionaalse veeldatud gaasi terminali esimese etapina tuleb analüüsida kohaliku tähtsusega väikese terminali rajamist. Maagaasi turu arendamine toob gaasitarbijale kaasa konkurentsivõimelisema hinna, kindlama tarne, laiema pakkumiste valiku ning kvaliteetsema teenuse. Kuna gaasituru arendamisest tõuseb tulu ka teistele olulistele sektoritele nagu näiteks elektrimajandus ja transport, siis on kaudselt kasusaajateks suur osa Eesti majandusest. Samal ajal tähendab see Eesti riigile terve rea ülal kirjeldatud suure mõjuga otsuste tegemist. Koos oma Euroopa Liidu naabritega on meie ees „võimaluste ajaaken“ – soovi korral tuleb gaa- situru arengut juhtida selliselt, et põhimõttelisemad otsused oleksid tehtud ning võimalusel ka rakendatud enne 2015. aastat, mil võib eeldada uutest allikatest nõudluse teket maagaasi järele ning ühtlasi toimub lepingu uuendamine Gazpromiga. Head lugemist! Taavi
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