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New Challenges, New Voices: Next Generation Viewpoints on Transatlantic Relations

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New Challenges, New Voices: Next Generation Viewpoints on Transatlantic Relations SPECIALREPORT SR022 May 2016 New Challenges, New Voices: Next Generation Viewpoints on Transatlantic Relations Editor LSE IDEAS is an Institute of Global Affairs Centre Dr Tim Oliver that acts as the School’s foreign policy think tank. Through sustained engagement with policymakers and opinion-formers, IDEAS provides a forum that Managing Editor informs policy debate and connects academic research Alexander Soderholm with the practice of diplomacy and strategy. IDEAS hosts interdisciplinary research projects, produces working papers and reports, holds public IDEAS Reports Editor and off-the-record events, and delivers cutting-edge Joseph Barnsley executive training programmes for government, business and third-sector organisations. Cover image source The ‘Dahrendorf Forum - Debating Europe’ is a joint www.shutterstock.com initiative by the Hertie School of Governance, the London School of Economics and Political Science and Stiftung Mercator. Under the title “Europe and the World” the project cycle 2015-2016 fosters research and open debate on Europe’s relations with five major regions. lse.ac.uk/IDEAS Contents SPECIALREPORT SR022 May 2016 New Challenges, New Voices: Next Generation Viewpoints on Transatlantic Relations CONTRIBUTORS 1 INTRODUCTION 2 Tim Oliver DEFENCE AND SECURITY US View: Atlanticism at Risk. 6 Jeff Lightfoot European View: Modern Dilemmas in the Old World. 16 Ben Jones ECONOMICS AND TRADE US View: It’s the politics, stupidly… 26 Philip Bednarczyk and Andrew Whitworth European View: Four Reasons Why TTIP May Fail and Why It 34 Will be Europe’s Fault. Tereza Novotná POLITICS AND VALUES US View: A Most Valued Relationship? 46 Parke Nicholson European View: ‘The Europe We Want’: Migrants and Europe’s 53 Failure of Imagination. Claire Sutherland EMERGING POWERS US View: Selective and Ambivalent Thinking 62 John Hemmings European View: EU-US-China relations and climate deals: 70 a threat to transatlantic relations? Julia Teebken CONCLUSION A Fundamental Relationship in Flux 80 Tim Oliver LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS 84 New Challenges, New Voices: Next Generation Viewpoints on Transatlantic Relations | 1 Contributors PHILIP BEDNARCZYK is JEFF LIGHTFOOT is a non- DR CLAIRE SUTHERLAND EMERGING POWERS Democratic professional staff resident senior fellow at the Brent is a Senior Lecturer in Politics on the U.S. House Foreign Scowcroft Center on International at Durham University. Her US View: Selective and Ambivalent Thinking 62 Affairs Committee responsible Security, Atlantic Council. publications include Soldered John Hemmings for the Subcommittee on States: Nation-Building in Germany Europe, Eurasia, and Emerging PARKE NICHOLSON is the and Vietnam (MUP, 2010) and Senior Research Associate European View: EU-US-China relations and climate deals: 70 Threats. Previously he worked Nationalism in the Twenty-first in the European Commission at the American Institute for Century (Palgrave, 2012). a threat to transatlantic relations? and Parliament. He has a B.A. Contemporary German Studies Julia Teebken from Fordham University and focusing on transatlantic JULIA TEEBKEN is a PhD M.A. from the Johns Hopkins relations and foreign policy. student at the Environmental CONCLUSION University School of Advanced He has worked at the Council Policy Research Center and the International Studies (SAIS). on Foreign Relations, Center for Graduate School of East Asian A Fundamental Relationship in Flux 80 the National Interest, and was Studies at the Freie Universität Tim Oliver JOHN HEMMINGS is an Adjunct a Munich Security Conference Berlin, Germany. She holds a Fellow at CSIS and Pacific Forum, Young Leader and a Robert Bosch M.A. from American University, LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS 84 CSIS and a doctoral candidate at Foundation Fellow in Germany. Washington D.C., and a B.A. the London School of Economics, from Freie Universität Berlin. where he is writing on East DR TEREZA NOVOTNÁ is an Asian international relations. FNRS Post-Doctoral Researcher ANDREW WHITWORTH is a He is also the Director of the at the Institute for European doctoral candidate in political Policy Dinner Club, a monthly Studies, Université libre de economy at the Johns Hopkins policy forum held at the Naval Bruxelles. She is co-editor of University School of Advanced and Military Club in London. The Politics of Transatlantic International Studies (SAIS) in Trade Negotiations: TTIP in Washington, DC and Bologna, BEN JONES is a PhD student at a Globalized World and the Italy. Previously he worked in King’s College, London. Previously author of How Germany the EU and USA in public affairs. he was a political consultant Unified and the EU Enlarged: He has an undergraduate degree in the defence industry. He is a Negotiating the Accession through from the University of Oxford. former foreign affairs adviser to Transplantation and Adaptation. the British Liberal Democrats and also worked as an MEP Assistant in the European Parliament. 2 | LSE IDEAS – Dahrendorf Forum Special Report. May 2016 Introduction Tim Oliver he future of the transatlantic relationship is rarely out of the headlines in Europe or North America, and Tis a perennial subject of analysis by think tanks, universities and governments. This is hardly surprising given no other two regions of the world are as closely connected in economics, security and politics. If the United Kingdom (UK) and United States (US) are said to have a ‘special relationship’, then the same must be said of the larger transatlantic relationship of which it is a part. Despite the closeness, the relationship faces – as it has watch US domestic politics, where the rise of populist always done – new and familiar challenges. This report, politicians such as Donald Trump reflect a wider public produced as part of the work of the Dahrendorf Forum and political unease at US engagement around the Working Group on Europe-North American relations, world. Europe is no exception, including in defence, offers views on the future of that relationship from where it is seen less as a strategic partner and more eight scholars who are at the start of their careers. as a place increasingly divided and weakened by its We wanted to know what they felt the future holds for own failings and external pressures. the relationship in the areas of defence, economics, values and emerging powers. Ben Jones explores the theme of Europe’s demilitarisation. As he sets out, Europe’s declining In each of these four areas we asked an author based military clout is often explained as an outcome of the at a university or think tank in Europe or the US to give region’s cultural and political trends best captured a European or US perspective.1 by the idea of Europe as ‘post-modern.’ This contrasts with a US, or other powers such as Russia or China, The report begins in the area so often associated that see the world in a traditional ‘modern’ way, and with transatlantic relations: defence and security. ‘pre-modern’ parts of the world such as large areas of In his view, Jeff Lightfootoffers a clear and direct a the developing world; a division first set out by the message as has been heard from a growing number British diplomat Robert Cooper. As Jones explains, of US officials, military officers and commentators: arguments that when it comes to defence spending that patience at European free-riding on a US security Europeans are motivated by radically different guarantee is reaching its limits and putting Atlanticism criteria from the US or other powers overlooks that at risk. In a chapter that takes into account the full the influence of cultural factors are more likely to range of pressures facing the US’s defence and be derived from individual state characteristics security commitments, Lightfoot notes how Europe’s than some pan-European culture. As such there is deteriorating geopolitical situation – especially the a realist explanation for Europe’s demilitarisation. emergence of a ‘ring of fire’ thanks to conflicts to its east, One of the most important is the structural weakness – south east and south – has yet to motivate Europeans most notably national divisions – in European defence to act in a more coordinated way in areas such as industrial markets compared to that of the US. As Jones defence. Some in Europe may take the US’s decision to makes clear, the area of ‘defence industrial cooperation’ increase its defence spending in Europe as a sign the remains the best hope for building European defence country remains fully committed to Europe’s security. cooperation. But Lightfoot is clear that this financial investment comes without the emotional investment that US views on the prospect of enhanced US-European followed World War II, and which helped sustain US economic relations are examined by Philip Bednarczyk commitments throughout the Cold War and for a long and Andrew Whitworth. As their pithy title sums time afterwards. Europeans would be wise to carefully up the prospects: ‘It’s the politics, stupidly…’ As they New Challenges, New Voices: Next Generation Viewpoints on Transatlantic Relations | 3 set out, the sheer scale of the economic relationship perspective can appear very close. Parke Nicholson makes it the cornerstone of both regional economies provides a US perspective on whether the two sides and remains the heart of the world economic system. are diverging over their interpretation of their common That economic closeness has every chance of growing, values. Nicholson highlights changes in the attitudes but even if this happens it is not guaranteed to make of Millennials (Generation Y) and in the US debate relations easier. Political leaders on both sides risk about immigration and asylum, a particularly fraught taking the relationship for granted, not least in Europe. debate given the country’s changing demographics US efforts to engage the European Union (EU) mean that by the middle of the century the US white through geopolitical efforts such as the ‘Transatlantic population could be a super-minority.
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