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India Cement (INDCEM) | 81 Target : | 75 Target Period : 12-15 Months Potential Upside : -7% Higher Prices Lead to Margin Expansion…

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India Cement (INDCEM) | 81 Target : | 75 Target Period : 12-15 Months Potential Upside : -7% Higher Prices Lead to Margin Expansion… Result Update August 14, 2015 Rating matrix | 81 Rating : Hold India Cement (INDCEM) Target : | 75 Target Period : 12-15 months Potential Upside : -7% Higher prices lead to margin expansion… • India Cement’s (ICL) Q1FY16 revenues declined 12.7% YoY (up 4.5% What’s changed? QoQ) to | 1,071 crore (above I-direct estimate of | 1,049 crore) due to Target Changed from | 92 to | 75 transfer of IPL division to a trust that reported revenues of | 123 crore EPS FY16E Changed from |3.8 to |4.9 last year. The cement division reported a 2.7% YoY drop in revenue led EPS FY17E Changed from | 5.2 to |5.6 by 18% YoY fall in volumes and 19% YoY rise in realisations Rating Unchanged • Cement EBITDA/tonne stood at | 961/tonne vs. | 448/tonne in Q1FY15 (up~114% YoY). On a QoQ basis, it improved 16.5% QoQ led by an Quarterly performance increase in cement prices coupled with a fall in freight & power costs Q1FY16 Q1FY15 YoY (%) Q4FY15 QoQ (%) • The ED has attached properties worth of | 120 crore with respect to the Revenue 1,071.0 1,226.2 -12.7 1,025.0 4.5 case against YS Jaganmohan Reddy that includes certain shares of EBITDA 195.0 157.8 23.6 182.2 7.0 Trinetra Cement. This, we believe, may lead to some delays in EBITDA (%) 18.2 12.9 534 bps 17.8 43 bps amalgamation of Trinetra Cement into the company. Further, the PAT 40.1 (3.0) LP 36.6 NA management has transferred the entire shareholding in Chennai Super Kings (CKCSL), which owns team franchise rights, to a trust named India Key financials Cements Shareholder Trust. The trust will distribute CKCSL shares to | Crore FY14 FY15 FY16E* FY17E* shareholders of ICL in proportion to their percentage holding in India Net Sales 4,440.9 4,418.8 4,362.1 4,769.4 Cements. However, monetisation of these shares remains key, which EBITDA 537.1 677.8 803.7 865.5 needs further clarity from a shareholder’s perspective Net Profit (35.9) 29.4 150.3 172.6 Fifth largest player in India with strong presence in south (AP, Karnataka) EPS (|) (1.2) 1.0 4.9 5.6 * excludes revenues from IPL ICL is the fifth-largest cement player in India and largest player in South India. Due to excess capacity in the southern region, particularly Andhra Valuation summary Pradesh (AP) where the company has over 49% of its total capacity, it FY14 FY15 FY16E* FY17E* reported muted revenue growth i.e. at a CAGR of 3.2% during FY10-15. P/E NA 84.6 16.6 14.4 Further, with power problems in AP and low capacity utilisation (~60-62%), Target P/E NA 147.2 28.8 25.1 its operating margins have come down sharply from 21.9% in FY10 to 15.3% EV/EBITDA 9.8 7.6 6.2 5.4 in FY15. With the Telangana issue now resolved, overall utilisation in the EV/Tonne($) 62 56 54 51 southern region is expected to improve over the next two or three years. P/BV 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 The management indicated that demand is expected to improve post RoNW (%) (0.9) 0.8 4.1 4.6 Q3FY16E led by a revival of infrastructure spending due to bifurcation of RoCE (%) 3.9 6.7 8.7 9.5 Andhra Pradesh. While the bottoming out of demand in South India is a key positive for India Cement, the utilisation level is unlikely to exceed ~67-68% till FY17-18E, which will limit volume growth for the company. Stock data Particular Amount Investment in unrelated businesses keeps debt at elevated levels | 2550 crore Mcap ICL has investments worth ~| 2,300 crore in non-cement assets that are low Debt (FY15) | 2691 crore RoE businesses. Further, lower utilisation in cement has kept ICL’s OCF Cash & Invest (FY15) | 3.88 crore under pressure. As a result, the company’s debt has remained at high levels. EV | 5238 crore Going forward, we expect debt levels to remain elevated led by an increase 52 week H/L | 134 / 71 in working capital requirement and capex plans of | 300 crore in FY16E for Equity cap | 307.2 crore refurbishment of old cement capacity. Face value | 10 Ongoing litigation, investments in low RoE business remain concerns Price performance With higher realisations in the south and improved outlook on the demand 1M 3M 6M 12M side on the verge of formation of a new state, we expect utilisation to Heildelberg Cem -1.5 -3.6 -17.9 11.2 improve from here on. However, unrelated investments and ongoing India Cement -4.0 -2.9 -12.3 -14.2 litigation pertaining to the same remain a key concern on the company’s JK Cement 4.7 6.4 -5.2 66.7 long-term growth prospect. Hence, despite attractive valuations, we JK Lakshmi Cem 7.1 0.3 -6.5 33.8 continue to maintain HOLD rating on the stock with a revised target price of Research Analyst | 75 (i.e. valuing at $50/tonne on FY17E capacity and 5x FY17E EV/EBITDA). Rashesh Shah [email protected] Devang Bhatt [email protected] ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Variance analysis Q1FY16 Q1FY16E Q1FY15 YoY (%) Q4FY15 QoQ (%) Comments Revenue during the quarter declined 12.7% due to tranfer of IPL to trust, which reported | 123 crore last year while cement revenues during the quarter declined 2.7% Total Operating Income 1071.0 1049.0 1226.2 -12.7 1,025.0 4.5 YoY to | 1056 crore Other Income 4.4 6.0 2.2 100.5 18.1 -75.6 Raw Material Expenses 171.0 159.3 153.3 11.5 152.1 12.4 Employee Expenses 91.0 79.7 78.2 16.5 84.8 7.3 Stock Adjustment 13.3 0.0 43.1 NA -7.9 N.A The decline in power & fuel cost on a YoY basis was due to a sharp fall in imported Power & Fuel 235.2 265.5 304.5 -22.8 273.5 -14.0 coal prices The decline in freight cost was due to a fall in diesel prices (road:rail mix 80:20) and Freight cost 221.0 224.1 255.6 -13.5 207.7 6.4 change in transport mix Others 144.5 138.1 233.8 -38.2 132.6 9.0 EBITDA 195.0 182.3 157.8 23.6 182.2 7.0 Higher realisations and decline in operating cost led to an improvement in margins EBITDA Margin (%) 18.2 17.4 12.9 534 bps 17.8 43 bps during the quarter Interest 93.2 103.0 96.7 -3.7 104.7 -11.0 Depreciation 55.4 61.8 66.2 -16.3 59.0 -6.0 Fall in depreciation charge was due to a change in rate of depreciation PBT 40.1 23.5 -3.0 LP 36.6 N.A Total Tax 0.0 7.7 0.0 NA 0.0 NA Higher operating profit and lower depreciation expenses led to higher PAT during the PAT 40.1 15.7 -3.0 LP 36.6 NA quarter Key Metrics Volume (MT) 2.10 2.10 2.56 -18.1 2.09 0.0 Sales volume remained in line with our estimates during the quarter Realisation (|) 5,041 4,844 4,244 18.8 4,799 5.0 Cement EBITDA per Tonne Better realisation and lower freight & power cost helped to improve EBITDA/tonne for (|) 961 764 448 114.7 825 16.6 the quarter Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research Change in estimates FY16E* FY17E* (| Crore) Old New % Change Old New % Change Comments We expect FY16E to be a challenging year in terms of volume growth amid excess capacity in the southern region and low government spending. However, a strong pricing environment would be a key driver for Revenue* 4,409.0 4,380.3 -0.7 4,844.3 4,769.4 -1.5 revenue growth EBITDA 813.3 803.7 -1.2 872.6 865.5 -0.8 Margins are expected to be under pressure due to lower EBITDA Margin (%) 18.4 18.3 -10 bps 18.0 18.1 13 bps utilisation PAT 116.4 150.3 29.1 158.3 172.6 9.0 EPS (|) 3.8 4.9 29.1 5.2 5.6 9.0 Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research *Revised estimates are excluding revenue from IPL business which has been transferred to Trust. Assumptions Current Earlier Comments FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E FY15 FY16E FY17E We remain conservative on the volume growth front with a visible Volume (MT) 10.1 10.0 9.1 8.7 9.3 9.1 8.8 10.0 recovery from Q3FY16E onwards Cement Realisation (|) 4,362 4,183 4,605 4,945 5,063 4,605 4,898 5,065 We expect the pricing environment to remain strong Cement EBITDA per Tonne (|) 783 289 500 854 853 500 842 855 Expect EBITDA/tonne to improve due to high cement prices Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research ICICI Securities Ltd | Retail Equity Research Page 2 Company Analysis Capacity spread Largest manufacturer of cement in South India India Cement is the largest cement manufacturer in the southern region with Rajasthan an installed capacity of 13.1 MTPA in the southern region. While 1.1 MTPA of 10% Maharastra capacity is in Maharashtra, 1.5 MTPA of capacity is in Banswara, Rajasthan.
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