ARGYLL & BUTE COUNCIL

Housing Need & Demand Assessment Technical Supporting Paper 3

Core Output 1: Key Drivers of the Local Housing Market - Demographic Trends

(August 2015)

Produced by:

HNDA Working Group & Bute Council Dolphin Hall Manse Avenue Dunoon Argyll PA23 8DQ [email protected] TEL: 01369 70 8679

1.0 Introduction

1.1 To achieve “robust and credible” status, a Housing Need and Demand Assessment (HNDA) must satisfy the requirements of the guidance published by the Centre for Housing Market Analysis in 2014. This should include detailed analysis of key housing market drivers such as household formation, population and migration trends, and should propose a set of future scenarios that will be used to run the online HNDA Tool. This will ultimately provide the calculation for new build requirements for additional affordable housing over a 5 and 10 year period.

1.2 This paper focuses on the past, current and future demographic trends for , and its constituent housing market areas; and proposes a set of 4 variant scenarios for inputting to the HNDA Tool. The report has been prepared in accordance with guidance and data has been compiled from a wide range of sources including the 2001 and 2011 Census; Scottish Neighbourhood Statistics; and the National Records of ; as well as data and analysis generated ‘in-house’ by Council staff. Where appropriate, the report highlights comparisons between national and local trends, with particular attention being paid to Argyll and Bute’s nine functional Housing Market Areas (see HNDA Technical Paper 1).

1.3 The report comprises three key sections:

Section 1: Recent demographic trends and current household profiles (this includes population change due to natural change – births and deaths – and net migration; change by age and by ethnicity; and household change by category and tenure);

Section 2: Population Projections (four variant scenarios);

Section 3: Household Projections (four variant scenarios).

1.4 The aim of this technical supporting paper is to provide a clear, evidence- based understanding of:  Key demographic factors and how these influence the local housing market(s);  The data and scenarios that will be used to run the CHMA’s HNDA Tool calculations;  The key findings that can be used to inform the Local Housing Strategy and the Local Development Plan(s).

1.5 The following paper and appended annex clearly outlines the methodology and all assumptions and judgements underpinning the variant scenarios; and notes any technical issues regarding data quality and analysis in a fully reasoned and transparent manner.

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2.0 SECTION ONE: An overview of Demographic Trends in Argyll & Bute.

2.1 Population Trends

Figure 2.1 shows that between 1997 and 2014, there has been a steady decline in the population of Argyll and Bute. The decline is in contrast to the overall national trend which has shown an increase over the same time period. The population in Argyll and Bute fell slightly short of 93,000 people in 1997 while in 2012 this figure dropped to approximately 86,900. The most recent data available shows Argyll and Bute’s population at 87,660 in 2014 which is a further decrease of 0.4% from the previous year and an overall decrease of 5.5% over the 17 year period.

Fig 2.1: Population Estimates of Argyll

and Bute, 1997 - 2014 94000

92000 90000 88000 86000

84000

82000

1999 2004 1997 1998 2000 2001 2002 2003 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Source: Scottish Neighbourhood Statistics (mid year estimates)

Table 2.1 shows the population of Argyll and Bute broken down across the nine administrative Housing Market Areas between 1996 and 2013. Six of the nine areas exhibit a decrease in population while only slight increases were recorded in Lorn and the Inner Isles; and ; and Mull and .

Table 2.1: Population of Scotland, Argyll & Bute and HMA's

Islay, Jura & Lorn & the Mull & Coll & Helensburgh & Source Total Scotland Argyll & Bute Bute Mid Argyll Inner Isles Iona Tiree Lomond 2013 5,327,700 88,050 14,650 6,410 3,437 16,333 3,062 839 26,170 9,382 7,767 2011 5,299,900 88,930 15,009 6,483 3,502 16,158 3,042 834 26,528 9,484 7,890 2008 5,168,500 90,500 15,343 7,001 3,822 15,897 3,070 993 26,207 9,998 8,169 2001 5,064,200 91,300 15,293 7,230 3,767 15,393 2,813 929 27,869 9,708 8,298 1996 5,092,190 91,740 15,972 7,338 3,952 14,820 2,921 1,046 27,269 9,510 8,912 Source: Scottish Neighbourhood Statistics (mid year estimates) Figure 2.2 illustrates this change in population across the HMAs. Cowal has recorded the largest decline in population since 2011 with a loss of 2.45%. The population in Lorn and the Inner Isles continues to grow (albeit at a

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slower rate than in previous years) and has recorded the largest population increase in Argyll and Bute since 2011 at just over 1%.

Fig 2.2: Changes in total population (%), 2001-2013 10

5

0

-5 Change Since 2011 Change since 2008

-10 Change since 2001

-15

-20

-25

Source: Scottish Neighbourhood statistics (Mid-Year Estimates)

2.2 Components of Population Change

These changes in population are driven by two key components: natural change (the difference between the number of births and deaths) and the impact of net migration in or out of the area. Natural change accounts for a steady annual loss since 2001. The number of deaths recorded in 2013 was 292 more than the number of recorded births as illustrated in Figure 2.3

Figure 2.3: Natural Change in population

for Argyll & Bute, 2001 - 2013

1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 -200 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

-400 -600

Births Deaths Natural Change 4

Figure 2.4 below shows the net migration for Argyll and Bute since 2001. The graph shows a downward trend since 2003 and while dipping slightly into negative figures between 2007 and 2009, more significant reductions have been recorded between 2012 and 2014.

Figure 2.4: Net migration for Argyll &

Bute, 2001 - 2014 1000 800 600

400 200 0

-200 -400

Source: Scottish Neighbourhood Statistics (mid year estimates)

2.3 Population Change by Age

Table 2.2 shows the population of Argyll and Bute and HMAs in 2013 by age cohort. As a comparison, Table 2.3 shows the 2008 figures.

Table 2.2: Population by age cohort, 2013 Total Argyll & , Jura Lorn & Mull & Coll & Helensbu Mid Age Band Cowal Bute the Inner rgh & Kintyre Scotland Bute & Colonsay Isles Iona Tiree Lomond Argyll 0-15 911,679 13,828 2,157 902 516 2,702 478 133 4,291 1,428 1,221 16-24 624,867 8,818 1,299 588 274 1,685 203 66 3,151 786 766 25-59 2,526,965 38,249 5,869 2,523 1,476 7,469 1,385 368 11,710 4,247 3,202 60+ 1,264,189 27,155 5,325 2,397 1,171 4,477 996 272 7,018 2,921 2,578 All 5,327,700 88,050 14,650 6,410 3,437 16,333 3062 839 26,170 9,382 7,767

Source: Scottish Neighbourhood Statistics (mid year estimates)

Table 2.3: Population by age cohort, 2008 Total Argyll & Islay, Jura Lorn & Mull & Coll & Helensbu Mid Age Band Cowal Bute the Inner rgh & Kintyre Scotland Bute & Colonsay Isles Iona Tiree Lomond Argyll 0-15 921,643 15,009 2,383 1,072 616 2,799 472 156 4,460 1,676 1,375 16-24 612,274 8,704 1,295 618 315 1,485 225 67 3,198 714 714 25-59 2,496,263 40,706 6,470 2,753 1,623 7,464 1,420 404 12,525 3,407 3,407 60+ 1,172,720 25,491 5,163 2,276 1,104 4,056 851 262 6,500 2,580 2,580 All 5,202,900 89,910 15,311 6,719 3,658 15,804 2,968 889 26,683 8,377 8,076

Source: Scottish Neighbourhood Statistics (mid year estimates)

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Furthermore, Figure 2.5 shows the population change in age cohorts as a percentage. All but one HMA (Kintyre) is showing an increase in the over 60 age cohort, with Mull and Iona showing the most significant increase at 14.5% which is more than double the increase of the whole of Scotland. Mull and Iona is the only HMA to report an increase in the 0-15 age cohort while there are significant reductions across the HMAs with an overall 8.5% decrease of people aged 0-15 in Argyll and Bute between 2008 and 2013.

Figure 2.5: Changes in age cohort by HMAs, 2008 - 2013

25.00

20.00

15.00

10.00

5.00 0 - 15 16 - 24 0.00 25 - 59

-5.00 60+

-10.00

-15.00

-20.00

-25.00

Source: Scottish Neighbourhood Statistics (mid year estimates)

Table 2.4 shows the changes in Argyll and Bute’s population by broad age cohort from 2001 to 2013 and illustrates the population decrease of children and those of working age and the increase of adults of pensionable age. Figure 2.6 graphically illustrates these trends.

Table 2.4: Population of Argyll & Bute by broad age cohort, 2001 - 2013 Year Total Population Children Working Age Pensionable Age 2001 91,300 17,052 54,442 19,806 2008 89,910 15,009 52,787 22,114 2011 88,930 14,360 51,833 22,737

2013 88,050 13,828 51,319 22,903 Source: Scottish Neighbourhood Statistics (mid year estimates)

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Fig 2.6: Population Changes by Broad Age Cohort across Argyll & Bute, 2001 - 2013 20 15

10 5

0

-5

%Change -10 Children -15

WorkingAge Total PopulationTotal -20 PensionableAge

-25 -30

Source: Scottish Neighbourhood Statistics (mid year estimates)

2.4 Population by Ethnicity

Table 2.5 shows the population of Argyll and Bute by country of birth and has compared the 2001 and 2011 census. There has been a 2% decrease in the number of people living in Argyll and Bute who were born in Scotland with a slight increase of residents who were born in . The number of residents born in the rest of Europe has doubled since 2001 and there has also been a slight increase in the number of people born outside of Europe who reside throughout the local authority.

Table 2.5: 2011 Census population of Argyll & Bute by country of birth

Argyll & Bute 2001 2011 % Scotland (inc. UK part not specified) 78.1 76.1 % England 17.0 17.7 % 0.6 0.6 % 0.7 0.7 % Ireland (inc. part not specified) 0.4 0.4 % Rest of Europe 1 2 % Elsewhere 2.1 2.5

Source: National Records of Scotland (2001& 2011 Census)

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Table 2.6: 2011 Census population of Argyll & Bute by ethnicity as a percentage

All people 88166 % White - 78.8 Scottish % White - 16.6 Other British

% White - Irish 0.8 % White - 0.6 Polish % White - 1.9 Other

% Asian, Asian Scottish or 0.6 Asian British % Other 0.6 ethnic groups

Table 2.6 shows the ethnicity profile of Argyll and Bute based on the 2011 census. A large proportion of the population are recorded as being White Scottish, British, Irish and Polish while the remaining 1.2% are recorded as Asian and other ethnic groups.

2.5 Household Trends

In 2014, there were an estimated 40,857 households in Argyll and Bute, up by 4.6% since 2001. This steady annual increase reflects the national trend in the last decade albeit at a slower rate. However, 2014 has seen a 0.2% decrease on the previous year despite an overall national rise; and it appears that the authority area has just passed a tipping point in terms of future trends. It is also worth noting that Argyll and Bute was one of only three local authority areas to buck the trend for positive growth.

Table 2.7: Changes in number of households in Argyll and Bute and Scotland, 1991 - 2014

Area Change 2013-2014 Change 2004 - 2014 Number % Number % Argyll & Bute -78 -0.2% 1,029 +2.6% Scotland 18,231 +0.8% 168,661 +7.5% Source: National Records of Scotland (estimates of Households and dwellings in Scotland, 2014)

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These overall trends for Scotland and Argyll and Bute are illustrated in the following graph (Fig 2.7).

Fig 2.7: Household trends of Scotland and Argyll & Bute, 1991 - 2014

Scotland Argyll & Bute

2,500,000 42000

41000

Scotland

- 40000

Argyll Argyll Bute&

2,000,000 39000 -

38000

37000

1,500,000 36000 NumberofHouseholds

Year Numberof Households

Source: Scottish Neighbourhood Statistics (mid year estimates)

2.6 Household Composition

Household composition has changed slightly since the 2001 census. Single occupancy has increased from 34% of the total number of households to 37%. Households with occupancy of two adults and one or more children have decreased by 5%.

Fig 2.8:Household Fig 2.9: Household Composition Argyll & Bute Composition Argyll & Bute

2001 1 adult 2015 1 adult 7% 7% 21% 34% 2 adults 16% 37% 2 adults 5% 5% 1 adult, 1+ children 1 adult, 1+ children 33% 35% 2 adults, 1+ children 2 adults, 1+ children 3+ adults 3+ adults

Source: National Records of Scotland (2001 Census) Source: National Records of Scotland (2012 Projections)

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Data collated from the 2001 census and the 2011 census show significant variations in household composition between the HMAs. The graphs in Figure 2.10 show single occupancy households have risen in Argyll and Bute from 12,801 in 2001 to 14,273 in 2011. There were 1205 less households in 2011 which accommodated families of two adults and one or more children than in 2001 although there has been an increase in single parent households. Households with only two adults and no children and households with all occupants over the age of 65 have also increased between the two census years. The following table also shows that there has been a rise in the number of households with non-dependent children living with one adult or more.

Figure 2.10: Household composition of Argyll & Bute and HMAs based on 2001 and 2011

One adult and no children Two adults and no children 4000 2500 3500 2000 3000 2500 1500 2000 1500 2001 1000 2001 1000 2011 2011 500 500 0 0

Two or more adults with one or more One or more adult with non-dependent children children 3000 1200 2500 1000 2000 800 1500 600 2001 2001 1000 400 2011 2011 500 200 0 0

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1200 All aged 65 and over 500 Other 450 1000 400 800 350 300 600 250 2001 200 2001 400 2011 150 2011 200 100 50 0 0

700 One adult and one or more children 600 500

400

300 2001 200 2011 100

0

Source: National Records of Scotland (2001 & 2011 Census)

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Table 2.8: Household composition of Argyll & Bute and HMAs based on 2001 and 2011 censusHousehold data type and HMA 2001 2011 Household type and HMA 2001 2011

One adult and no children All aged 65 and over Bute 1585 1594 Bute 370 324 Coll & Tiree 162 153 Coll & Tiree 34 33 Cowal 2483 2681 Cowal 855 858 H&L 2877 3361 H&L 1005 1092 IJC 586 563 IJC 136 160 Kintyre 1286 1374 Kintyre 385 359 Lorn 2043 2423 Lorn 576 595 Mid Argyll 1354 1661 Mid Argyll 375 472 Mull & Iona 425 463 Mull & Iona 116 130 Argyll and Bute 12801 14273 Argyll and Bute 3852 4023 Two adults and no children One adult and one or more children Bute 523 516 Bute 196 208 Coll & Tiree 60 87 Coll & Tiree 21 25 Cowal 1216 1324 Cowal 405 440 H&L 2098 2158 H&L 508 633 IJC 312 351 IJC 91 93 Kintyre 607 597 Kintyre 209 208 Lorn 1295 1385 Lorn 329 439 Mid Argyll 860 1011 Mid Argyll 232 225 Mull & Iona 293 316 Mull & Iona 52 54 Argyll and Bute 7264 7745 Argyll and Bute 2043 2325

Household type and HMA 2001 2011 Household type and HMA 2001 2011 Two or more adults and one or more children Other Bute 546 396 Bute 119 104 Coll & Tiree 73 59 Coll & Tiree 29 15 Cowal 1149 947 Cowal 326 298 H&L 2519 2113 H&L 476 371 IJC 338 246 IJC 93 67 Kintyre 669 523 Kintyre 182 113 Lorn 1385 1254 Lorn 340 392 Mid Argyll 868 817 Mid Argyll 187 185 Mull & Iona 233 220 Mull & Iona 65 61 Argyll and Bute 7780 6575 Argyll and Bute 1817 1606 One or more adult with non-dependent children

Bute 231 245 Source: National Records of Scotland (2001 & 2011 Census) Coll & Tiree 17 33 Cowal 565 591 H&L 1034 1083 IJC 129 189 Kintyre 342 295 Lorn 595 672 Mid Argyll 368 388 Mull & Iona 94 107 Argyll and Bute 3375 3603

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2.7 Household Change by Tenure

Table 2.9 shows that there has been a significant rise in owner occupation between 2001 and 2012. The private rented sector has remained at the same level and there are less second homes being recorded. The number of households which fall into the social rented category has decreased by 4% . Table 2.9: Household tenure of Argyll & Bute, 2001 and 2012 Social Rent Owner Private Rent Second Home 2001 19% 54% 10% 11% 2012 15% 67% 10% 8% Source: Argyll & Bute Council, LHS Annual Progress Report – 2013 Table 2.10 refers to the breakdown of household tenure across the HMA’s in 2011. It can be seen as a percentage in Table 2.11 overleaf. Bute has both the highest percentage of social rented households (29.73%) and the lowest percentage of households which are either owned outright or with a mortgage or a loan. There are significantly more households which are owned outright in Coll and Tiree (as a percentage) than in any other HMA although Helensburgh and Lomond have the highest percentage of households owned outright or owned with a mortgage or loan at 73.54%. Mull and Iona have the largest proportion of household renting privately (13.62%) while Coll and Tiree have the lowest (8.19%).

Table 2.10: Household tenure of HMA’s, 2011

Owned: Owned: Shared All Rented: Living Owned Owned: ownership Rented: households Other rent free outright Owned (part Rented: Rented: Private with a owned Council Other landlord All mortgage and part (Local social or letting households or loan rented) authority)* rented agency Bute 3387 1198 634 19 0 1007 415 56 58 Coll & Tiree 403 207 77 0 0 58 33 14 14 Cowal 7139 2922 1914 35 0 1292 725 131 120 H&L 10811 3964 3986 12 0 1365 940 405 139 IJC 1646 623 316 2 0 394 172 54 85 Kintyre 3469 1249 789 4 0 1012 296 50 69 Lorn 7160 2555 2065 45 0 1393 820 111 171 Mid Argyll 4759 1814 1324 39 0 876 471 103 132 Mull & Iona 1351 571 312 2 0 189 184 48 45 *Post transfer of council owned stock to housing association Source: National Records of Scotland (2011 Census)

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Table 2.11: Household tenure of HMA’s, 2011 as %

Owned: Owned: Shared All Rented: Living rent Owned Owned: ownership Rented: households Other free outright Owned (part Rented: Rented: Private with a owned Council Other landlord All mortgage and part (Local social or letting households or loan rented) authority) rented agency Bute 100 35.37 18.72 0.56 0.00 29.73 12.25 1.65 1.71 Coll & Tiree 100 51.36 19.11 0.00 0.00 14.39 8.19 3.47 3.47 Cowal 100 40.93 26.81 0.49 0.00 18.10 10.16 1.83 1.68 H&L 100 36.67 36.87 0.11 0.00 12.63 8.69 3.75 1.29 IJC 100 37.85 19.20 0.12 0.00 23.94 10.45 3.28 5.16 Kintyre 100 36.00 22.74 0.12 0.00 29.17 8.53 1.44 1.99 Lorn 100 35.68 28.84 0.63 0.00 19.46 11.45 1.55 2.39 Mid Argyll 100 38.12 27.82 0.82 0.00 18.41 9.90 2.16 2.77 Mull & Iona 100 42.26 23.09 0.15 0.00 13.99 13.62 3.55 3.33

Source: National Records of Scotland (2011 Census)

2.8 Household Change by Size

The 2011 census has shown that the rate of one and two person households have increased since the 2001 census while households with 3 or more occupants have decreased. Therefore, there is an overall decrease in household size with one and two person households making up 71% of the total number of households within Argyll and Bute as can be seen in Figure 2.11.

40 Fig 2.11: Household Size

35 30

25

20 2001

15 2011

%of Households 10 5

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 Number of person(s) Household

Source: National Records of Scotland (2001 & 2011 Census)

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Table 2.12: Household size of Argyll & Bute Scotland Household Size Argyll & Bute 2001 Scotland 2001 Argyll & Bute 2011 2001 Total Number of households (with 38,969 2,192,246 40,125 2,372,777 residents) % 1 person 32.85 32.88 35.6 34.7 % 2 people 35.43 33.08 36.4 34 % 3 people 13.95 15.57 13 15.1 % 4 people 12.02 12.89 10.3 11.5 % 5 people 4.26 4.28 3.6 3.7 % 6 people or more 1.49 1.29 1.1 1.1

Source: National Records of Scotland (2001 & 2011 Census)

Table 2.13 shows the occupancy rating of households within Argyll and Bute and the HMAs. This is a measure of whether a household’s accommodation is overcrowded or under-occupied in relation to the notional number of rooms required by those who live there. In 2011, 2597 households were overcrowded in Argyll and Bute while 29,488 households were categorised as being under-occupied. Cowal experienced the most cases of overcrowding.

Table 2.13: Household Occupation Households All +2 or -2 or Households 1 0 -1 under- households more less overcrowded occupied

Bute 3387 1175 950 935 286 41 2125 327 Coll & Tiree 403 247 83 58 12 3 330 15 Cowal 7139 3449 1679 1440 460 111 5128 571 H&L 10811 5608 2669 2008 428 98 8277 526 IJC 1646 821 413 309 86 17 1234 103 Kintyre 3783 1611 1123 822 186 41 2734 227 Lorn 7160 3281 1823 1519 411 126 5104 537 Mid Argyll 4445 2240 1241 743 179 42 3481 221 Mull & Iona 1351 780 295 206 52 18 1075 70 Argyll and Bute 40125 19212 10276 8040 2100 497 29488 2597

Source: National Records of Scotland (2011 Census)

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3.0 Section 2: Population and Household Projections (variant scenarios)

3.1 National Records of Scotland (NRS) publish population projections for council areas every two years. The most recent NRS projections were the 2012- based projections, published on 14 May 2014. At time of writing, NRS has not produced any population projections for areas smaller than individual council areas. Therefore, if projections are required for smaller areas, then councils must make their own arrangements for producing them. The CHMA guidance does allow for local, disaggregated population and household projections to be used in the HNDA calculation as long as the methodology and assumptions that underpin these are clearly explicated. The Council, therefore, has produced the following projections in-house and a detailed technical annex summarising the methodology has been prepared by Dr Chris Carr and is appended to this report.

3.2 Four population forecasts, for two sets of areas, have been produced:

o A trend-based 'Main' projection: This projection extrapolates past trends into the future to show what the population will look like in future years should these trends continue. o A trend-based 'Low Migration' projection: based partly on past trends and partly on the migration assumptions used by NRS in its 2012-based low migration variant population projections. o A policy-based forecast based on the scenario of a stable population. o A policy-based forecast based on the scenario of a growing population.

3.3 The 'Main' projection assumes that past trends will continue into the future. If policies are enacted to encourage growth, and these policies are successful, then, with hindsight, the trend-based projections may prove to be inaccurate. The 'Growing Population Scenario' is designed to give an indication of what might happen if the Single Outcome Agreement's overall objective of 'Argyll and Bute’s Economic Success is Built on a Growing Population’ is achieved. Both the ‘Stable’ and ‘Growing’ population scenarios require net in-migration flows that are higher than either recent or long-term averages and therefore may be considered less robust and more speculative than the “main” and “low migration” scenarios.

3.4 The two sets of areas for which projections / forecasts have been produced are:  The council’s four Administrative Areas;  Seven subareas: Bute; Cowal; Helensburgh & Lomond; Mid Argyll; Kintyre & the Islands (i.e. Islay, Jura & Colonsay); Mull, Iona, Coll & Tiree; and Lorn, Lismore & the Slate Islands

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3.5 The seven subareas’ projections will be utilised as the basis of disaggregated inputs for the HNDA calculation. These are not entirely contiguous with the nine HMAs, as the very low population bases of Coll & Tiree and of Islay, Jura & Colonsay preclude statistically valid projections. In this instance, the projections for the two wider sub-areas (Kintyre & the Islands; and Mull, Iona, Coll & Tiree) will be split proportionately according to the current HMA populations and this split will be carried through the HNDA Tool consistently for each year of the projection. This is a pragmatic “best fit” approach, to enable the HNDA calculation to be run at the level of the individual HMAs and therefore, as with all estimates and projections, a degree of caution is required, and it should be understood that outputs are purely indicative.

3.6 The 'Main' projection suggests that there will be a long-term decrease in the total population across Argyll and Bute. However, variations exist between sub-areas. Thus if past trends continue:

 The total population will increase in , Lorn and the Isles (+4% between 2015 and 2025), but will decrease in other areas (-10% in Bute and Cowal; -8% in Helensburgh and Lomond; -5% in Mid Argyll, Kintyre and the Islands).

 The number of children will decrease. Between 2015 and 2025, the number of 0 to 15 year olds in Argyll and Bute is projected to change by - 4% (Bute and Cowal: -13%; Helensburgh and Lomond: -9%; Mid Argyll, Kintyre and the Islands: +2%; Oban, Lorn and the Isles: +5%).

 The population will age. The ‘Main’ projection for the Administrative Areas suggests that there will be an increase of over 30% in the number of people aged 75 and over (2015 to 2025). This varies between areas, with range of +27% (in Bute and Cowal) to +38% (in Oban, Lorn and the Isles).

3.6 In summary, the overall projections for Argyll and Bute for each scenario are outlined in the following graph.

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94,000 Figure 3.1: Population projections for Argyll 92,000 & Bute, 2011-2025 90,000

88,000

86,000 Main Low scenario 84,000 Stable Scenario 82,000 Growing Scenario 80,000

78,000

76,000

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2011 Source: Argyll & Bute Council modelling derived from NRS 2012-base Projections

The following graph illustrates population projections for 7 sub-areas (the lowest statistically valid level of disaggregation for modelling purposes). This is based on the “principle” projection scenario. Cowal and Helensburgh& Lomond in particular exhibit significant population decline while Lorn is the only area that is set to see significant growth. Mull & the Islands remains fairly stable over the next decade.

30,000 Figure 3.2: Population projections over 7 subareas,

2011-2025 Bute 25,000 Cowal 20,000 Helensburgh & Lomond

15,000 Mid Argyll

10,000 Kintyre & the islands

Mull, Iona, Coll & Tiree 5,000

Lorn, Lismore & the Slate

0 Islands

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2011 Source: Argyll & Bute Council modelling derived from NRS 2012-base Projections

Full details of the projections are contained in Annex 1.

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4.0 Household Projections

4.1 Household projections are derived from and follow the methodology and assumptions underpinning the population projections as detailed in the annex to this report. Again, the Council has produced the 4 scenarios of a “Main” projection; a “low migration” projection; a “stable” projection; and a scenario based on a “growing population”. In all cases, the headship rates are taken from the NRS’ 2012-based household projections for Argyll and Bute (principal projection).

4.2 The main projection suggests that there will be a long-term decrease in the total number of households across Argyll and Bute. However, variations exist between household types and areas. Thus if past trends continue: . There will be increases in the number of 1 adult male households . There will be a slight increase in the short term, followed by decreases in the number of 2 adult households and 1 adult female households . There will be decreases in the numbers of 3+ adult households and 2+ adults with 1+ children households . Numbers of single parent households are likely to remain stable. . Total household numbers will increase in Oban, Lorn and the Isles, but will decrease in other areas.

4.3 The 'Main' projection assumes that past trends, both in terms of location and demographics, will continue into the future. If policies are enacted to encourage growth, and these policies are successful, then, with hindsight, the projections may prove to be inaccurate. Both the ‘Stable’ and the 'Growing Population’ scenarios show increasing numbers of households in Argyll and Bute. However, the ‘Stable population’ scenario suggests a decline in the number of households in Bute and Cowal, with increases in the other four Administrative Areas, while the ‘Growing population’ scenario suggests increasing numbers of households in all areas, albeit forecast growth in household numbers for Bute and Cowal is modest. The 'Growing Population Scenario' is designed to give an indication of what might happen if the Single Outcome Agreement's overall objective of 'Argyll and Bute’s Economic Success is Built on a Growing Population’ is achieved. Both the stable and growing population scenarios require net in-migration flows that are higher than either recent or long-term averages.

4.4 In summary, the following graph illustrates the changes in total households for Argyll and Bute, under each of the 4 scenarios, between 2015 and 2025.

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45000 Fig 4.1: Household Projections (Variant Scenarios) 44000 Argyll & Bute, 2015 - 2025

43000

42000

41000

40000

39000

38000

37000 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Principle Growth scenario Stable Low Migration

4.4 Changes in household types over the next ten years, for Argyll and Bute as a whole and based on the “main” projection, are illustrated in the following figure. Single person households will increase by 6% while couples and single parent families are likely to remain relatively stable. However, larger families (2 or more adults and 1 or more children) are set to reduce by 19%; and households of 3 or more adults will decrease by 15.5% over the same period.

Fig 4.2: Projected Changes of Household Types in Argyll & Bute, 2015 - 2025 18000 Single Person 16000 14000 Couples 12000 10000 1 parent

8000 family 6000 2+ adults, 1+ children 4000 3+ adults 2000 0 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

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4.5 Significant variations are evident across the sub-areas, for each of the 4 scenarios. Most notably, even under the “growth” projection Cowal displays a marked decline in the number of households while both Lorn and the Mull island grouping are set to see significant increases. Under the main scenario, the percentage changes in total households ranges from a low of almost -9% in Cowal to a high of more than +11% in Lorn.

Table 4.5.2: Projection Scenarios across Argyll & Bute subareas. Scenarios Area Main Growing Stable Low migration Argyll and Bute -1.1 7.9 4.4 -2.2 Bute -1.0 7.6 4.3 -2.0 Cowal -8.8 -0.8 -3.9 -11.0 Helensburgh and Lomond -4.8 4.9 1.2 -5.8 Mid Argyll -0.6 8.1 4.7 -1.7 Kintyre and the Islands -3.7 4.8 1.5 -4.7 Mull, Iona, Coll and Tiree 8.1 17.9 14.1 7.0 Lorn 11.1 20.7 17.0 9.9

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5.0 Conclusion

5.1 Key issues for the HNDA and LHS

 The Argyll and Bute HNDA will utilise demographic projections derived initially from the National Records of Scotland projections. The most realistic and robust in-house variants of the NRS 2012-base principal population and household projections suggest an overall decline in the total population and in the number of households in Argyll and Bute over the next 10 years and well beyond; however there are significant variations across the HMAs and sub-areas. In most areas the rate of decline will vary, while in Lorn and the Mull, Iona, Coll & Tiree grouping of islands there is a significant projected increase more in line with national trends.

 The population profile, as expected, will continue to age almost exponentially with more, older households who will represent an increasing share of the total number of households; and consequently significant declines in both younger persons and the economically active age cohort. The population of Argyll and Bute is set to age at an even higher rate than the national trend, and primary research indicates that the majority will continue to live in their own homes and primarily occupy the private sector as they age. While there will be a requirement, therefore, for additional purpose-built, accessible housing to meet the particular needs of an ageing population, the main strategic implications are likely to focus on improving existing stock and for the repair and maintenance of properties, particularly in the private sector, as well as the provision of care and support services required to enable this. This will be considered in more detail in the HNDA chapter on Core Output 3, Specialist Provision.

 The decline in younger persons and particularly those of working age, who contribute to the funding of service provision as well as to staffing relevant workforces and also to the overall health of a balanced housing system and to the sustainability of local communities, will also present real challenges.

 Single person households are currently the largest category of households within Argyll and Bute and are set to remain so in the foreseeable future. In fact this group will increase by 6% by 2025 and 7% by 2030. Couples (2 adults) make up the next main category of households and these too are likely to increase over time. Therefore, there will be a requirement for a range of flexible options available to accommodate smaller household units, primarily one and two bedroom properties.

 The ethnic minority component of the local population remains statistically and numerically very small, and the ongoing trends for these groups generally do not indicate any significant implications for the HNDA or LHS, but will of course be monitored on a case by case basis. This will be considered further in Core Output 3.

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