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Population and Household Projections for Scottish Sub-Council Areas (2012-Based)

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Population and Household Projections for Scottish Sub-Council Areas (2012-Based) Population and Household Projections for Scottish Sub-Council Areas (2012-based) Population projections by age and sex, and household projections by age group and household type, at sub-council area level Published on 23 March 2016 Experimental Statistics: data being developed These statistics are currently being developed and have been published to involve users and stakeholders in their development, and to build in quality and understanding at an early stage. Contents Main Points .......................................................................................................................... 5 1. Background ............................................................................................................ 8 2. Uses and limitations of projections ....................................................................... 15 3. Sub-council area projection results ...................................................................... 17 4. Methodology and assumptions ............................................................................. 55 5. Further information ............................................................................................... 77 6. Notes on statistical publications ......................................................................... 142 7. Related organisations......................................................................................... 144 List of Tables Table A: Project milestones............................................................................................... 9 Table B: Sub-council area geography by council area .................................................... 14 Table C: Summary of sub-council area projection assumptions ...................................... 68 Table D1: Special population adjustments - council area summary .................................. 69 Table D2: Special population adjustments - armed forces ................................................ 70 Table D3: Special population adjustments - prisoners ...................................................... 71 Table D4: Special population adjustments - students ........................................................ 72 Table E: Household types and age groups used in the household projections ............... 73 Table 1: Projected population by sub-council area (2012-based), 2012-2026 ................ 78 Table 2: Projected households by sub-council area (2012-based), 2012-2026 ............ 110 List of Maps and Figures Map 1: Projected percentage change in population across Scotland’s sub-council areas, 2012-2026 .............................................................................................. 18 Map 2: Projected percentage change in households across Scotland’s sub-council areas, 2012-2026 .............................................................................................. 19 Figure 1: Perth & Kinross Integrated Health and Social Partnership Areas - All persons, estimated and projected, 2001-2026 .................................................. 21 Figure 2: Perth & Kinross Integrated Health and Social Partnership Areas - Number of projected households, 2012-2026 ................................................................. 21 2 © Crown Copyright 2016 Figure 3: South Ayrshire Locality Planning Areas - All persons, estimated and projected, 2001-2026 ........................................................................................ 23 Figure 4: South Ayrshire Locality Planning Areas - Number of projected households, 2012-2026 ......................................................................................................... 23 Figure 5: West Dunbartonshire Multi-Member Wards - All persons, estimated and projected, 2001-2026 ........................................................................................ 25 Figure 6: West Dunbartonshire Multi-Member Wards - Number of projected households, 2012-2026 .................................................................................... 25 Figure 7: Fife Multi-Member Wards - All persons, estimated and projected, 2001-2026 .. 27 Figure 8: Fife Multi-Member Wards - Number of projected households, 2012-2026 ........ 27 Figure 9: East Ayrshire Multi-Member Wards - All persons, estimated and projected, 2001-2026 ......................................................................................................... 29 Figure 10: East Ayrshire Multi-Member Wards - Number of projected households, 2012-2026 ......................................................................................................... 29 Figure 11: Edinburgh Multi-Member Wards - All persons, estimated and projected, 2001-2026 ......................................................................................................... 31 Figure 12: Edinburgh Multi-Member Wards - Number of projected households, 2012-2026 ......................................................................................................... 31 Figure 13: Inverclyde Multi-Member Wards - All persons, estimated and projected, 2001-2026 ......................................................................................................... 33 Figure 14: Inverclyde Multi-Member Wards - Number of projected households, 2012-2026 ......................................................................................................... 33 Figure 15: Population age/sex structure for Levern Community Health and Care Partnership Resource area, East Renfrewshire, estimated and projected ........ 35 Figure 16: Population age/sex structure for Baillieston Multi-Member Ward, Glasgow City, estimated and projected ........................................................................... 37 Figure 17: Population age/sex structure for Isles Housing Market Area, Orkney Islands, estimated and projected ...................................................................... 39 Figure 18: Population age/sex structure for Islay, Jura & Colonsay Housing Market Area, Argyll & Bute, estimated and projected ................................................... 40 Figure 19: Population age/sex structure for North Isles Multi-Member Ward, Shetland Islands, estimated and projected ...................................................................... 42 Figure 20: Population age/sex structure for Sutherland Housing Market Area, Highland, estimated and projected ................................................................... 44 3 © Crown Copyright 2016 Figure 21: Population age/sex structure for Mid Berwickshire Multi-Member Ward, Scottish Borders, estimated and projected ....................................................... 45 Figure 22: Population age/sex structure for Polmont and Rural South Sub-council area, Falkirk, estimated and projected .............................................................. 47 Figure 23: Population age/sex structure for Heldon and Laich Multi-Member Ward, Moray, estimated and projected ........................................................................ 49 Figure 24: Population age/sex structure for St. Andrews Multi-Member Ward, Fife, estimated and projected .................................................................................... 51 Figure 25: Population age/sex structure for City Centre Multi-Member Ward, Edinburgh City, estimated and projected .......................................................... 53 Figure 26: Types of households in Levern Community Health and Care Partnership Resource Area, East Renfrewshire, projected, 2012-2026 ............................... 54 Figure A: Diagram of POPGROUP process used for sub-council area population projections ........................................................................................................ 59 Figure B: POPGROUP process used for sub-council area population projections ........... 60 Figure C: Flow diagram of the method used to produce household projections for Scotland and council areas ............................................................................... 74 Figure D: Flow diagram of the method used to produce household projections for sub-council areas .............................................................................................. 74 Please note that Tables and Figures with a letter reference, for example Table A, are only contained within this report. Tables and Figures with a numeric reference, for example Table 1, are available to download from the List of Tables and List of Figures and Maps sections of the National Records of Scotland website. More detailed tables are also available to download. 4 © Crown Copyright 2016 Main Points Limitations of projections When using a projection it is important to note some key limitations. Population projections are calculations showing what happens under certain assumptions about future fertility, mortality and migration. Household projections also incorporate information on trends of household formation. The assumptions in these projections continue these past trends in local fertility, mortality, migration and household formation. They do not take account of any future changes that may occur as a result of policy initiatives, social or economic change. They will reflect past policy changes and trends in house building, but they do not incorporate information on planned future policy changes or house building. For example, an area may have had a high level of house building over the last few years, which is now coming to an end, but the projections would show a continuation
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