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Intelligence Failures in Countering Islamic Terrorism: a Comparative Analysis on the Strategic Surprises of the 9/11 and the Pa
Department of Political Science Master’s Degree in International Relations - Global Studies Chair of Geopolitical Scenarios and Political Risk Intelligence Failures in Countering Islamic Terrorism: A Comparative Analysis on the Strategic Surprises of the 9/11 and the Paris Attacks and the Exceptionality of the Italian Case SUPERVISOR CANDIDATE Prof. Giuseppe Scognamiglio Antonella Camerino Student ID: 639472 CO-SUPERVISOR Prof. Lorenzo Castellani ACCADEMIC YEAR 2019-2020 TABLE OF CONTENTS ABSTRACT…………………………………………………………………………………………5 INTRODUCTION…………………………………………………………………………………..6 CHAPTER 1: Intelligence: A Theoretical Framework 1.1 – The Intelligence Cycle………………………………………………………………….11 1.2 – Intelligence Failures…………………………………………………………………….19 1.3 – The Strategic Surprises and Surprises Attacks………………………………………….24 1.4 – The Black Swan Theory………………………………………………………………...30 CHAPTER 2: The Case of USA: The Attacks of the 9/11 2.1 – The US Intelligence Community……………………………………………………….35 2.2 – Analysis of a Terrorist Organization: Al-Qaeda………………………………………..43 2.3 – The 9/11 Attacks: Facts, Causes and Consequences……………………………………52 2.4 – The US Involvement in the Middle East: The War on Terror………………………….61 CHAPTER 3: The Case of France: The Paris Attacks of November 13 3.1 – The French Intelligence Community…………………………………………………...73 3.2 – Analysis of a Terrorist Organization: The Islamic State………………………………..80 3.3 – The Paris Attacks of November 13: Facts, Causes and Consequences………………...90 3.4 – The French Involvement in the Middle East: Opération Chammal…………………….98 -
1 the Road to the Paris November 2015 and Brussels March 2016
Paris-Brussels Attack Network Analysis – Nafees Hamid, Artis International The Road to the Paris November 2015 and Brussels March 2016 attacks By Nafees Hamid, Artis International October 2018 The report explores the natural histories of Al Qaida and ISIS members as well as their social network structures leading up the November 2015 Paris and March 2016 Brussels attacks. It also gives details of how the attacks unfolded and the current state of ISIS external operations capabilities. The information in this report is a culmination of face-to-face interviews with 1) AQ and ISIS members who were directly or peripherally involved in the events and networks described, 2) their lawyers, friends, family members, and acquaintances, 3) Belgian, French, British, and Spanish counter-terrorism police, federal prosecutors, interrogators, 4) various CVE officials, mayors, social workers, teachers, community leaders, imams, journalists, anthropologists, historians, and researchers of the places from where the networks emerged, and 5) over 10,000 pages of court documents and hundreds of pages of police files and interrogation transcripts regarding AQ and ISIS networks spanning over 20 years. Belgium Overview The small country of Belgium is located in the North West of Europe and is made up of 11.5 million people. Despite its small size, it would become the country with the highest per capita rate of foreign terrorist fighters (FTFs) venturing toward Syria. Local radical networks since the early 1990’s would carry out or facilitate attacks in many parts of Europe. Most recently, a small network of friends from the Molenbeek commune of Brussels would make up the core members of the November 2015 Paris and March 2016 Brussels attacks that took 165 lives and injured 713 others. -
What the Terrorist Campaign in France and Belgium Tells Us About the Future of Jihadist Terrorism in Europe MTI Report 12-02 December 2012 December 12-02 MTI Report
MTI Trains, Concert Halls, Airports, and Restaurants—All Soft Targets: Funded by U.S. Department of Services Transit Census California of Water 2012 Transportation What the Terrorist Campaign in France and Belgium Tells Us About the Future of Jihadist Terrorism in Europe MTI ReportMTI 12-02 December 2012 MTI Report WP 12-10 MINETA TRANSPORTATION INSTITUTE MTI FOUNDER Hon. Norman Y. Mineta The Mineta Transportation Institute (MTI) was established by Congress in 1991 as part of the Intermodal Surface Transportation Equity Act (ISTEA) and was reauthorized under the Transportation Equity Act for the 21st century (TEA-21). MTI then successfully MTI BOARD OF TRUSTEES competed to be named a Tier 1 Center in 2002 and 2006 in the Safe, Accountable, Flexible, Efficient Transportation Equity Act: A Legacy for Users (SAFETEA-LU). Most recently, MTI successfully competed in the Surface Transportation Extension Act of 2011 to Founder, Honorable Norman Joseph Boardman (Ex-Officio) Diane Woodend Jones (TE 2016) Richard A. White (Ex-Officio) be named a Tier 1 Transit-Focused University Transportation Center. The Institute is funded by Congress through the United States Mineta (Ex-Officio) Chief Executive Officer Principal and Chair of Board Interim President and CEO Department of Transportation’s Office of the Assistant Secretary for Research and Technology (OST-R), University Transportation Secretary (ret.), US Department of Amtrak Lea+Elliot, Inc. American Public Transportation Transportation Association (APTA) Centers Program, the California Department of Transportation (Caltrans), and by private grants and donations. Vice Chair Anne Canby (TE 2017) Will Kempton (TE 2016) Hill & Knowlton, Inc. Director Executive Director Bud Wright (Ex-Officio) OneRail Coalition California Transportation Executive Director The Institute receives oversight from an internationally respected Board of Trustees whose members represent all major surface Honorary Chair, Honorable Bill Commission American Association of State transportation modes. -
MINETA TRANSPORTATION INSTITUTE MTI FOUNDER Hon
MTI Trains, Concert Halls, Airports, and Restaurants—All Soft Targets: Funded by U.S. Department of Services Transit Census California of Water 2012 Transportation What the Terrorist Campaign in France and Belgium Tells Us About the Future of Jihadist Terrorism in Europe MTI ReportMTI 12-02 December 2012 MTI Report WP 12-10 MINETA TRANSPORTATION INSTITUTE MTI FOUNDER Hon. Norman Y. Mineta The Mineta Transportation Institute (MTI) was established by Congress in 1991 as part of the Intermodal Surface Transportation Equity Act (ISTEA) and was reauthorized under the Transportation Equity Act for the 21st century (TEA-21). MTI then successfully MTI BOARD OF TRUSTEES competed to be named a Tier 1 Center in 2002 and 2006 in the Safe, Accountable, Flexible, Efficient Transportation Equity Act: A Legacy for Users (SAFETEA-LU). Most recently, MTI successfully competed in the Surface Transportation Extension Act of 2011 to Founder, Honorable Norman Joseph Boardman (Ex-Officio) Diane Woodend Jones (TE 2016) Richard A. White (Ex-Officio) be named a Tier 1 Transit-Focused University Transportation Center. The Institute is funded by Congress through the United States Mineta (Ex-Officio) Chief Executive Officer Principal and Chair of Board Interim President and CEO Department of Transportation’s Office of the Assistant Secretary for Research and Technology (OST-R), University Transportation Secretary (ret.), US Department of Amtrak Lea+Elliot, Inc. American Public Transportation Transportation Association (APTA) Centers Program, the California Department of Transportation (Caltrans), and by private grants and donations. Vice Chair Anne Canby (TE 2017) Will Kempton (TE 2016) Hill & Knowlton, Inc. Director Executive Director Bud Wright (Ex-Officio) OneRail Coalition California Transportation Executive Director The Institute receives oversight from an internationally respected Board of Trustees whose members represent all major surface Honorary Chair, Honorable Bill Commission American Association of State transportation modes. -
Open Yazujian Mastersthesis Finaldraft.Pdf
The Pennsylvania State University The Graduate School The College of Information Sciences and Technology A COMPARATIVE SOCIAL NETWORK ANALYSIS OF THE 2008 MUMBAI, 2015 PARIS, and 2016 BRUSSELS TERRORIST NETWORKS A Thesis in Information Sciences and Technology by Tyler J. Yazujian 2017 Tyler J. Yazujian Submitted in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Master of Science May 2017 The thesis of Tyler J. Yazujian was reviewed and approved* by the following: Peter Forster Senior Lecturer of Information Sciences and Technology Thesis Adviser Jessica Kropczynski Lecturer of Information Sciences and Technology T { Donald Shemanski Professor of Practice of Information Sciences and Technology Andrea H. Tapia Associate Professor of Information Sciences and Technology Head of the Graduate Department in the College of IST *Signatures are on file in the Graduate School ii ABSTRACT This research builds a further understanding about analyses to characterize networks with limited data available. It uses social network analysis to retrospectively compare the networks of the terrorist attacks in Mumbai 2008, Paris November 2015, and Brussels March 2016, to better recognize the roles and positions of the networks’ actors. Expanding on previous analysis of the Mumbai terrorist network, this paper identifies new methods to study dark networks by applying social network analysis to the Mumbai, Paris, and Brussels networks. Three levels of analysis are conducted: (1) an attribute-level correlation to examine correlation between age and organizational role across cells; (2) key player analysis to investigate whether key players share similar roles; and (3) application of structural block models to the networks to identify cellular combat teams. -
DOCTOR of PHILOSOPHY Government Communication And
DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY Government Communication and Terrorist Organizations: Towards a Concept of “Crisis Communication” in reaction to 21st Century Islamic Terrorist Attacks for Western Governments Hamm, Dominik Award date: 2019 Awarding institution: Queen's University Belfast Link to publication Terms of use All those accessing thesis content in Queen’s University Belfast Research Portal are subject to the following terms and conditions of use • Copyright is subject to the Copyright, Designs and Patent Act 1988, or as modified by any successor legislation • Copyright and moral rights for thesis content are retained by the author and/or other copyright owners • A copy of a thesis may be downloaded for personal non-commercial research/study without the need for permission or charge • Distribution or reproduction of thesis content in any format is not permitted without the permission of the copyright holder • When citing this work, full bibliographic details should be supplied, including the author, title, awarding institution and date of thesis Take down policy A thesis can be removed from the Research Portal if there has been a breach of copyright, or a similarly robust reason. If you believe this document breaches copyright, or there is sufficient cause to take down, please contact us, citing details. Email: [email protected] Supplementary materials Where possible, we endeavour to provide supplementary materials to theses. This may include video, audio and other types of files. We endeavour to capture all content and upload as part of the Pure record for each thesis. Note, it may not be possible in all instances to convert analogue formats to usable digital formats for some supplementary materials. -
„Wir Werden Gewinnen“ Frankreich Die Attentäter Von Paris Zielten Auf Ein Junges, Lässiges Paris Und Meinten Unser Aller Alltag in Der Offenen Gesellschaft
Titel Die Anschläge von Paris „Wir werden gewinnen“ Frankreich Die Attentäter von Paris zielten auf ein junges, lässiges Paris und meinten unser aller Alltag in der offenen Gesellschaft. 10 DER SPIEGEL FH / ECDG F I A L / S S E R P A V I R / T O S I O B T N Überlebende des Anschlags auf die Konzerthalle Bataclan E C N I V DER SPIEGEL FH / ECDG 11 Titel Die Anschläge von Paris in falscher Frühling beherrscht Paris im November, seit Wochen ist das EWetter mild, die Abende sind lau, die Straßen belebt, die Terrassen voll, als käme nicht bald der Winter. In leichten Ja - cken sitzen 80 000 Menschen unter freiem Himmel im Stade de France, als sich am vergangenen Freitag die heimische und die deutsche Fußball-Nationalmannschaft zu den Hymnen am Mittelkreis aufstellen. Die Marseillaise erklingt, das alte Kriegs - lied, Frankreichs Hymne: „… Gegen uns wurde der Tyrannei blutiges Banner erho - ben! Hört ihr im Land das Brüllen der grau - samen Krieger? Sie rücken uns auf den Leib, eure Söhne, eure Frauen zu köpfen!“ Historische Verse, sie werden gleich auf grauenhafte Weise aktuell. Im Stadion hören um 21.20 Uhr alle, auch Präsident François Hollande auf der Ehrentribüne, auch der deutsche Außen - minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier neben ihm, auch die sonstigen VIPs in den von Konzernen gemieteten Logen, auch die Fa - milien mit ihren Söhnen und Töchtern, auch die mit Tickets beschenkten Geburts - tagskinder, die Sicherheitsleute, die Platz - anweiser, die Balljungen einen unerklär - lichen Knall; auch die Spieler auf dem Feld hören ihn, Verteidiger Patrice Evra macht, mitten im laufenden Spiel, eine Geste der Verwirrung: In dieser Schrecksekunde be - ginnt draußen der komplexeste Terror - angriff, den Frankreich und Westeuropa seit Jahrzehnten gesehen haben. -
The Roots of Radicalization in Belgium
June 26th, 2018 Jean-Charles Micieli s2100002 When Criminology Engages in Terrorism Studies: The Roots of Radicalization in Belgium Word count: 17 000 Leiden University Faculty of Governance and Global Affairs - Master in Crisis and Security Management Supervisor: Dr. B.W Schuurman - Second Reader: Dr. M.C.A Liem Table of Content Introduction ................................................................................................................................ 2 State of the Art ........................................................................................................................... 4 Methodology/Data Collection .................................................................................................. 13 Discussion/Analysis ................................................................................................................. 20 Group dynamics - Networking ............................................................................................. 21 Kinship dynamics ............................................................................................................. 21 Friendship/Comradeship/Collective Identity ................................................................... 24 Demographical and geographical dynamics ....................................................................... 26 Skills transfer from criminality to terrorism / Criminal background ................................... 34 Ideological dimension ......................................................................................................... -
Memorial Museum of Terrorism"
13, place Vendôme – 75042 Paris Cedex 01 Telephone: 01 44 77 25 75 www.justice.gouv.fr 2 3 THE MEMORIAL MUSEUM OF SOCIETIES FACING TERRORISM Preparatory assignment Report to the Prime Minister Henry Rousso and Myriam Achari, Rachid Azizi, Rachid Azzouz, Alice Bombardier, Valérie Brisard, Clifford Chanin, Isabelle Chaudieu, Marc Crépon, Jacques Fredj, Olivier Grémont, Emmanuelle Iardella-Blanc, Élisabeth Pelsez, Denis Peschanski, Jenny Raflik-Grenouilleau, Adeline Rispal, Esther Shalev-Gerz, Brigitte Sion, Michel Wieviorka March 2020 4 CONTENTS PRIME MINISTER’S ENGAGEMENT LETTER ........................................................................................................ 7 SUMMARY AND RECOMMENDATIONS ............................................................................................................. 9 I. INTRODUCTION ..................................................................................................................................... 13 A. WHY A MEMORIAL MUSEUM? ........................................................................................................................ 13 B. DEFINING TERRORISM ................................................................................................................................... 15 1. The appearance of the term ............................................................................................................... 15 2. The legal definitions .......................................................................................................................... -
The Attacks on Paris: Lessons Learned
White Paper THE ATTACKS ON PARIS: LESSONS LEARNED A Presentation of Findings Courtesy of HSAC and the Paris Public Safety Delegation June 2016 Prepared by QuinnWilliams, LLC 2 Preface The purpose of this white paper is to document the findings of the Los Angeles delegation that traveled to Paris in April 2016, to meet with key members of the Parisian law enforcement and intelligence communities, as they shared their lessons learned from the attacks on Paris in November 2015. The November 13 attacks were the deadliest on French soil since WWII. The terrorists targeted the Stade de France, restaurants in the 10th and 11th arrondissements and the Bataclan concert hall. In a little over three hours, the nine attackers killed 130 and wounded 368. The Paris law enforcement community did a commendable job responding to coordinated, simultaneous attacks. The death toll likely would have been much higher if not for several key decisions made immediately after the attacks began. The Los Angeles delegation returned with a deeper understanding of the Parisian response and how these lessons learned can be best applied in the Southern California region. These findings are summarized in this "unclassified” white paper and presented to local public safety agencies in the Los Angeles area. This white paper was prepared by QuinnWilliams, LLC in coordination with the Los Angeles delegation at the request of the Homeland Security Advisory Council (HSAC). 3 4 TABLE OF CONTENTS ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ...................................................................................................... -
ISIS in the WEST the Western Militant Flow to Syria and Iraq
PETER BERGEN, DAVID STERMAN, ALYSSA SIMS, AND ALBERT FORD ISIS IN THE WEST The Western Militant Flow to Syria and Iraq UPDATED MARCH 2016 About the Authors About New America Peter Bergen is a print, television and New America is committed to renewing American politics, web journalist, documentary producer prosperity, and purpose in the Digital Age. We generate big and the author or editor of seven books, ideas, bridge the gap between technology and policy, and three of which were New York Times curate broad public conversation. We combine the best of bestsellers and three of which were a policy research institute, technology laboratory, public named among the best non-fiction books of the year by forum, media platform, and a venture capital fund for The Washington Post. The books have been translated into ideas. We are a distinctive community of thinkers, writers, twenty languages. Documentaries based on his books researchers, technologists, and community activists who have been nominated for two Emmys and also won the believe deeply in the possibility of American renewal. Emmy for best documentary in 2013. Find out more at newamerica.org/our-story. Mr. Bergen is vice president of New America, and directs the organization’s International Security and Fellows programs. He is CNN’s national security analyst, a About the International Security Program Professor of Practice at Arizona State University and a fellow at Fordham University’s Center on National Security. The International Security Program aims to provide evidence-based analysis of some of the thorniest David Sterman is a senior program questions facing American policymakers and the public. -
Armed to Kill a Comprehensive Analysis of the Guns Used in Public Mass Shootings in Europe Between 2009 and 2018
REPORT Armed To Kill A comprehensive analysis of the guns used in public mass shootings in Europe between 2009 and 2018 Nils Duquet Nino Kbiltsetskhlashvili Isthiaq Khan The Flemish Peace Institute is an independent institute dedicated Eric Woods to peace research and hosted by the Flemish Parliament. REPORT Armed to Kill A comprehensive analysis of the guns used in public mass shootings in Europe between 2009 and 2018 Colophon Armed to kill A comprehensive analysis of the guns used in public mass shootings in Europe between 2009 and 2018 ISBN 9789078864974 © Flemish Peace Institute, Brussels, 3 October 2019 Authors Nils Duquet, Nino Kbiltsetskhlashvili, Isthiaq Khan & Eric Woods Final Editing Alex Potter Lay-out Karakters Printing Artoos Introduction Disclaimer While the Flemish Peace Institute has exercised the utmost care in the redaction of this report, it cannot be deemed or held liable for possible mistakes or oversights with regard to completeness. At the same time, the Institute shall not assume any form of liability for the use that a reader may make of this document. 2 \ 79 Table of contents 1 Introduction 4 2 Methodological framework 7 2.1 Definition and scope 7 2.2 Data collection 8 3 Case studies of public mass shootings 11 3.1 Winnenden (Germany, March 2009) 12 3.2 Espoo (Finland, December 2009) 13 3.3 Cumbria (United Kingdom, June 2010) 14 3.4 Devínska Nová Ves (Slovakia, August 2010) 15 3.5 Alphen aan den Rijn (The Netherlands, April 2011) 16 3.6 Utøya (Norway, July 2011) 18 3.7 Liège (Belgium, December 2011) 21 3.8 Toulouse-Montauban