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THE FUTURE OF NUCLEAR ENERGY IN THE UK Birmingham Policy Commission The Report July 2012 2 The Future of Nuclear Energy in the UK Foreword by the Chair of the Commission It was a great honour to have been invited to chair this policy commission for the University of Birmingham. This is a critical time for the UK to get its energy policy right as we face the twin challenges of climate change and energy security. Historically nuclear energy has had a significant role in the UK and could continue to do so in the decades ahead. But this is by no means inevitable and, as a former minister for energy, I am more than aware of the complexities involved in getting energy policy right now and for future generations. The current report looks at challenges facing the UK in terms of building up its nuclear programme. It examines technology, financing, safety and waste issues, supply chain potential, workforce requirements and R&D. Our report makes clear that unless the Government shows a decisive lead and creates the right conditions for investment in the UK, the country risks losing out on its huge potential for developing a new nuclear industry. The University of Birmingham has a long and established track record working in the areas of de-commissioning, health monitoring and residual life prediction for existing nuclear power stations, dating back to the first phase of nuclear construction in the 1950s. Birmingham has also made significant contributions in metallurgy and materials in the study of the extension of the lifetime of reactor materials; important contributions have also been made in the field of radiation damage to nuclear materials. It is therefore in an excellent position to contribute to a nuclear renaissance in the UK, illustrated by its recently opened ‘Centre for Nuclear Education and Research’. I would like to express my great thanks to members of the Policy Commission for their invaluable contribution. We owe a great debt to Professor Martin Freer, who has been a tower of strength in leading the work; and I would also like to give my thanks to Audrey Nganwa for her excellent support. Philip Hunt The Future of Nuclear Energy in the UK 3 Acknowledgments The last twelve months, over which the Policy Commission has attempted to develop a coherent understanding of the complexities associated with nuclear energy, the impediments to a nuclear renaissance, energy policy, waste management and public opinion, have been extremely stimulating. This journey has been made all the more rewarding by the high quality input received and numerous enlightening discussions. The University wishes to express its sincere gratitude to all those who have contributed and helped shape the thinking found in the report. There are many who have devoted a considerable amount of time to the work of the Commission. These include the Commissioners, who have steered the direction with their tremendous knowledge of nuclear energy and policy, Lord Philip Hunt, who ably chaired the Commission, demonstrating impressive clarity, and everyone who contributed to the individual meetings, workshops and debates. The Commission greatly appreciates the quality of the input from those who attended its evidence gathering sessions. At the heart of any successful process are organisation, planning and efficiency. In this regard Dr Audrey Nganwa, the Policy Commission’s Research Fellow, was the lynchpin in ensuring the Commission reached a successful conclusion. Contributions from Dr David Boardman, Brigid Jones, Kirsty Mack and the University Communications Team are also greatly appreciated. The views expressed in this report reflect the discussions of the Commission and the input received and do not necessarily reflect the personal views of those who contributed. Professor Martin Freer 4 The Future of Nuclear Energy in the UK Contents Foreword by the Chair of the Policy Commission Acknowledgements Section I Setting the context 5 Section II The fundamental questions 11 Section III Exploring the issues in depth 49 1 Nuclear energy in context 50 2 Energy policy 52 3 New nuclear stations in the UK 57 4 The UK nuclear fuel cycle: historic, present and future 63 5 Future nuclear technologies 69 6 UK research and development in nuclear fission 79 7 A roadmap for nuclear energy, nuclear research 86 and the fuel cycle 8 The future of waste disposal 88 9 Public perception and opinion 93 10 Nuclear education and skills 101 Glossary 106 Appendices Appendix 1. Policy Commission work programme 110 Appendix 2. Contributors to the Policy Commission 111 5 Section I Setting the context 6 The Future of Nuclear Energy in the UK 7 Nuclear energy: Is it part of the UK’s future? How will nuclear There are many challenges facing the UK, perhaps none greater than the present international financial crisis. But looming just energy be a key part over the horizon is one that will rival it – the energy crisis. of the UK’s future energy landscape? Driven by the need to address climate change consequences. Is enough being done and and energy security, the UK is reshaping its fast enough to fill the gap in the UK’s energy energy portfolio. In a bid to decarbonise energy portfolio? Herein lies the challenge for both production, renewable energy sources are Government and those who seek to influence taking centre stage – coupled with efforts to policy alike. increase energy efficiency. Nevertheless, it is widely believed that such sources alone cannot As part of the solution, the Government has meet the full UK demand. Other low carbon a stated aim of encouraging the continued use sources will be required. Energy policy- of nuclear energy, a tried and tested technology makers face a trilemma – they may have to shown to be one of the lowest emitters of choose between policies that will raise the greenhouse gases and that would contribute cost of energy, reduce its security of supply, to the UK’s security of supply through providing or worsen its impact on the environment. a significant fraction of the country’s base load electricity. Importantly, at the political level, Many countries are revolutionising the way there is cross-party support for maintaining they generate energy, but for the UK – with its a significant proportion of nuclear in the UK’s high population density and relatively high per future energy mix. In terms of new construction, capita use of electricity (compared to the world ten or more reactors are under consideration average) the situation is more acute than for based on two alternative designs – the many. At a time when demand is predicted Advanced Passive Reactor (AP1000) from to increase, the UK’s current nuclear power Westinghouse1 and the European Pressurised- stations will be approaching their design Water Reactor (EPR) from Areva,2 both lifetimes – the last is due to close in 2035. capable of producing energy for a period of up In addition, many coal power stations are to to 60 years and enabling the UK to replace its be closed as controls on various emissions current ageing reactor fleet with the very latest are tightened. Combined, these two sources ‘Generation III’ technology. Indeed, a major account for nearly 50% of the current UK worldwide collaborative effort is currently electricity production. This will create a underway to develop future ‘Generation IV’ significant gap between supply and demand reactors that target increased sustainability, that, unaddressed, will have dramatic proliferation resistance, very high levels of 1 Westinghouse: AP1000 http://www.ap1000.westinghousenuclear.com 2 Areva: EPR http://www.areva.com/EN/global-offer-419/epr-reactor-one-of-the-most-powerful-in-the-world.html 8 The Future of Nuclear Energy in the UK safety and efficiency and reduced waste The ‘leave it to the market to decide’ approach, production. A number of advanced designs where Government relies on energy companies are being investigated, with demonstrator to determine the energy mix, results in the plants foreseen or already under construction temptation of the energy companies to focus in a few countries, including France, the USA on the near term, perhaps through a build up and China, with plans to introduce commercial of gas-fired power stations. However, the use reactors within the next 20 to 30 years. Though of nuclear energy requires a long term national the long-term international trajectory of commitment entailing many decades of Generation IV development is uncertain, responsibility, and a country should foresee the world’s leading civil nuclear power an elapse of at least 100 years between the nations are engaging strongly in cooperative initial planning and the final decommissioning pre-commercial research in order to address of the latest power plants, not to mention the technical challenges. However, the UK the management of long-lived radioactive currently has limited involvement – significant waste and stewardship of disposal sites. active participation in such research came Furthermore, being a finite resource, to an end approximately five years ago when uranium also raises questions of long-term Government funding ceased. Is this the sustainability of reserves. These questions right approach? must be addressed now so that the technological foundations can be laid to There are a number of significant hurdles keep future options open. In this regard: that must be overcome in developing the UK’s Will the UK still be looking to build nuclear agenda, as reviewed within this report. current day nuclear technology in A range of issues need to be addressed:

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