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Political Instability and Economic Growth
Political Instability and Economic Growth The Harvard community has made this article openly available. Please share how this access benefits you. Your story matters Citation Alesina, Alberto, Sule Ozler, Nouriel Roubini, and Phillip Swagel. 1996. Political instability and economic growth. Journal of Economic Growth 1(2): 189-211. Published Version doi:10.1007/BF00138862 Citable link http://nrs.harvard.edu/urn-3:HUL.InstRepos:4553024 Terms of Use This article was downloaded from Harvard University’s DASH repository, and is made available under the terms and conditions applicable to Other Posted Material, as set forth at http:// nrs.harvard.edu/urn-3:HUL.InstRepos:dash.current.terms-of- use#LAA NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES POLITICAL INSTABILITY AND ECONOMIC GROWTH Albert0 Alesina Sule 0zler Nouriel Roubini Phillip Swagel Working Paper No. 4173 NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138 September 1992 We are grateful to John Londregan for generously sharing his data set and for useful conversations, Kala Krishna for letting us use her PC, Jennifer Widner for much needed help in understanding political events in Africa, Gary King for providing some data, Robert Barro, Rudi Dornbusch, John Helliwell, Ed Learner, Nancy Marion, Ronald Rogowski, Howard Rosenthal, and participants in seminars at University of Maryland, Pennsylvania, Princeton, Utah, UCLA and NBER for very useful comments and Gina Raimondo and Jane Willis for excellent research assistance. For financial support we thank National Fellows Program at Hoover Institution, Sloan, UCLA Academic Senate and Yale Social Science Research Fund, and especially IRIS at University of Maryland. This paper is part of NBER’s research programs in Growth, International Finance and Macroeconomics, and International Trade and Investment. -
How Plural Is the Plural Economy of Bolivia? Constructing a Plural Economy Indicator with Fuzzy Sets
How plural is the plural economy of Bolivia? Constructing a plural economy indicator with fuzzy sets Rolando Gonzales Martínez* * The author thanks the editorial review and the comments from three anonymous referees. The usual disclaimer holds. 10 ROLANDO GONZALES MARTÍNEZ ABSTRACT An indicator that measures the compliance with the constitutional principles of a plural economy is proposed. An inference system based on fuzzy sets was used to calculate the indicator. The fuzzy system summarizes the principles of income redistribution and environmental sustainability into an overall measure of plural economy that allows to objectively judge the change towards a plural economy in Bolivia. JEL Classification: C02, P40 Keywords: Plural economy indicator, fuzzy sets Revista de Análisis, Enero - Junio 2012, Volumen N° 16, pp. 9-29 HOW PLURAL IS THE PLURAL ECONOMY OF BOLIVIA? CONSTRUCTING A PLURAL ECONOMY INDICATOR WITH FUZZY SETS 11 ¿Cuán plural es la economía plural de Bolivia? Construyendo un indicador de economía plural con conjuntos difusos RESUMEN Se propone un indicador que mide el cumplimiento de los principios constitucionales de una economía plural. Para calcular el indicador se usó un sistema de inferencia basado en conjuntos difusos. El sistema difuso resume los principios de la redistribución del ingreso y la sostenibilidad ambiental en una medida global de economía plural que permite juzgar objetivamente el cambio hacia una economía plural en Bolivia. Clasificación JEL: C02, P40 Palabras clave: Indicador de economía plural, conjuntos difusos Revista de Análisis, Enero - Junio 2012, Volumen N° 16, pp. 9-29 12 ROLANDO GONZALES MARTÍNEZ I. Introduction As part of a series of changes of the economic model of Bolivia, the government of this country enacted in 2009 a new State Constitution with the principles of a plural economy. -
Time-Varying Interdependencies of Tourism and Economic Growth: Evidence from European Countries
A Service of Leibniz-Informationszentrum econstor Wirtschaft Leibniz Information Centre Make Your Publications Visible. zbw for Economics Dragouni, Mina; Filis, George; Antonakakis, Nikolaos Working Paper Time-Varying Interdependencies of Tourism and Economic Growth: Evidence from European Countries FIW Working Paper, No. 128 Provided in Cooperation with: FIW - Research Centre International Economics, Vienna Suggested Citation: Dragouni, Mina; Filis, George; Antonakakis, Nikolaos (2013) : Time-Varying Interdependencies of Tourism and Economic Growth: Evidence from European Countries, FIW Working Paper, No. 128, FIW - Research Centre International Economics, Vienna This Version is available at: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/121121 Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen: Terms of use: Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Documents in EconStor may be saved and copied for your Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden. personal and scholarly purposes. Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle You are not to copy documents for public or commercial Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich purposes, to exhibit the documents publicly, to make them machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen. publicly available on the internet, or to distribute or otherwise use the documents in public. Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, If the documents have been made available under an -
Institutions and Agricultural Growth in Bolivia and New Zealanda
Research Programme Consortium on Improving Institutions p g for Pro-Poor Growth INSTITUTIONS AND AGRICULTURAL GROWTH IN BOLIVIA AND NEW ZEALANDA STEVE WIGGINSA DISCUssION PAPER SERIES NUMBER TWENTY-ONE OCTOBER 2008 IPPG A Many thanks to the stimulating and encouraging comments received on this paper from colleagues in IPPG — Paul Hare, Adrian Leftwich, and Kunal Sen. Some of the ideas about Bolivia owe much to the guidance of George Gray, Alexander Schejtman and Carlos Toranzo. The interpretations here are not necessarily those of my helpers, and certainly not whatever omissions and misjudgement remain in this essay. B Overseas Development Institute Paper prepared for the DFID-funded Research Programme, Institutions and Pro-Poor Growth (IPPG). The authors are grateful to DFID for the funding that made this research possible. The views expressed in this paper are entirely those of the author and in no way represent either the official policy of DFID or the policy of any other part of the UK Government. Material published by the IPPG may be reproduced free of charge in any format or medium provided it is reproduced faithfully, not used in a misleading context and properly attributed to the author(s). Copyright exists in all other original material published by members of the Programme and may belong to the author or to the University of Manchester depending on the circumstances of publication. Enquiries should be sent to the editor at the above address. IPPG Programme Office, IDPM, School of Environment & Development University of Manchester, Arthur Lewis Building, 2.023, Oxford Road Manchester M13 9PL; Telephone 0161 306 6438; [email protected] www.ippg.org.uk IPPG SUMMARY This essay compares the experiences of agricultural development and overall development in two similar but very different countries: Bolivia and New Zealand. -
Economic and Social Council
UNITED NATIONS GENERAL. E/CN.12/SfiA8(V) 13 April 1953 ECONOMIC ENGLISH AND ORIGINALSFRENCH SOCIAL COUNCIL ECONOMIC COMMISSION FOR LATIN AMERICA Fifth Session SUMMARY RECORD OF THE FORTY-EIGHTH MEETING Held at Rio de Janeiro on Monday, 13 April 1953 at CONTENTS General debate (continued) .•/prissent S E/CN.12/SR„46(V) Page 1734. PRESENT: Chairman: Mr, EUVALDC LODI Brazil Rapp&rteur: Mr, GIORDANO BRUNO ECCHER Uruguay Members: Mr, PORTELA Argentina Mr, ALCAZAR Bolivia Mr, DE MOURA Brazil Mr. ISAZA Colombia Mr, MARTONES. Chile Mr, CRESPO ORDOtEZ Ecuador Mr, GLOWER V. El Salvador Mr, BOHAN United States of America Mr. DE TliJGÚY DU POUET Prance Mr, NORIEGA MORALES Guatemala Mr, ALVARADO TRO¿HEZ Honduras Mr. MARTINES BAJiiZ Mexico MR p GANTARERO Nicaragua Mr, JONG BAW) Netherlands Mr. PEIN ) Mr, Me CULLOUGH Panama Mr, URBIETA PLEITAS Paraguay Mr. BARRETO Peru Mr, MACKEFZIE United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland Mr, GARRIDO Dominican Republic Also present: Representatives of specialized agencies: fir, MONTEIR0) International Mr. SILBI2RER) Labour Organisation (ILO) Mr, MARRAMA Pood and Agriculture Organization (PAO) Mr, FORCART United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization(UNESCO] Mr» LARSEN International Bank for Reconstruction and Development /Mr* DEL CANTO E/CN,lâ/SR,ij.8(V) Rage 3 Mr. DEL CANTO) International Mr, ROBIGHEK <> Monetary Fund (MF) Representatives of inter-governmental organizations; Mr.' TAYLOR ) Inter-American Mr *,HEÜRTEMATTE) • Economic and . Social Council »Representatives of non-governmental organizations? Category At Mr, STEßELSKI International Ch&mber 3f Commerce (ICC) Secretariat: Mr. PREBISCH .Executive Secretary Fir. SWENSQN Assistant Director Mr. PEREZ GUERRERO Executive Secretary, I" Technical Assistance 3o fd' Mr., SANTA CRUZ .Secretary to the Conference GENERAL DEBATE (continued) The CHAIRMAN asked Mr, Cavallos Tovai* (Bolivia), Second Vice-Chairman,, to take the chair while Mr, Alcazar, representative of Bolivia addressd the Commission, »Mr. -
Cornell Dyson Wp0203
WP 2002-03 January 2002 Working Paper Department of Applied Economics and Management Cornell University, Ithaca, New York 14853-7801 USA Portugal and the Curse of Riches - Macro Distortions and Underdevelopment in Colonial Times Steven Kyle Abstract Portugal and the Curse of Riches - Macro Distortions and Underdevelopment in Colonial Times Steven Kyle Cornell University December 2001 This paper attempts to answer the following question: How, in economic terms, was being colonized by Portugal “different” for Lusophone African countries than was being colonized by France or Britain? Gervase Clarence-Smith addressed this question for the period after 1825, and comes to the conclusion that Portuguese economic motivations were much the same as those for other colonial powers. Nevertheless, this leaves open the question of whether the objective conditions of Portugal’s economy and its development trajectory over the long run (i.e. from the 15th century on) may have affected its colonial relations regardless of whether motivations were the same. The answer to this question is examined in terms of Portugal’s own lack of economic development and the economic processes which led to this. Most important is the fact that Portugal experienced a massive influx of foreign exchange (gold and revenue from the spice trade) during a period when other Northern European countries were undergoing the beginnings of the Industrial Revolution and the consequent transformations in their economies that this engendered. Portugal, however, never underwent these changes until the twentieth century, due at least in part to what is commonly called “Dutch Disease” in the economics literature, a name for a pattern of problems afflicting resource rich countries which distorts their development and retards the growth of productive sectors of the economy. -
Econstor Wirtschaft Leibniz Information Centre Make Your Publications Visible
A Service of Leibniz-Informationszentrum econstor Wirtschaft Leibniz Information Centre Make Your Publications Visible. zbw for Economics Aiginger, Karl Working Paper Catching-up in Europe: The Experiences of Portugal, Spain and Greece in the Nineties WIFO Working Papers, No. 212 Provided in Cooperation with: Austrian Institute of Economic Research (WIFO), Vienna Suggested Citation: Aiginger, Karl (2003) : Catching-up in Europe: The Experiences of Portugal, Spain and Greece in the Nineties, WIFO Working Papers, No. 212, Austrian Institute of Economic Research (WIFO), Vienna This Version is available at: http://hdl.handle.net/10419/128757 Standard-Nutzungsbedingungen: Terms of use: Die Dokumente auf EconStor dürfen zu eigenen wissenschaftlichen Documents in EconStor may be saved and copied for your Zwecken und zum Privatgebrauch gespeichert und kopiert werden. personal and scholarly purposes. Sie dürfen die Dokumente nicht für öffentliche oder kommerzielle You are not to copy documents for public or commercial Zwecke vervielfältigen, öffentlich ausstellen, öffentlich zugänglich purposes, to exhibit the documents publicly, to make them machen, vertreiben oder anderweitig nutzen. publicly available on the internet, or to distribute or otherwise use the documents in public. Sofern die Verfasser die Dokumente unter Open-Content-Lizenzen (insbesondere CC-Lizenzen) zur Verfügung gestellt haben sollten, If the documents have been made available under an Open gelten abweichend von diesen Nutzungsbedingungen die in der dort Content Licence (especially Creative Commons Licences), you genannten Lizenz gewährten Nutzungsrechte. may exercise further usage rights as specified in the indicated licence. www.econstor.eu ÖSTERREICHISCHES INSTITUT FÜR WIRTSCHAFTSFORSCHUNG WORKING PAPERS Catching-up in Europe: The Experiences of Portugal, Spain and Greece in the Nineties Karl Aiginger 212/2003 Catching-up in Europe: The Experiences of Portugal, Spain and Greece in the Nineties Karl Aiginger WIFO Working Papers, No. -
Rthe Political Economy of Agricultural Pricing Policy
Public Disclosure Authorized 10198 ThePolitical Economy of Public Disclosure Authorized AgriculturalPricing Policy VO LUME 3 Africa Public Disclosure Authorized and the Mediterranean Edited by AnneO .Krueger i MaunceScbiff i AlbertoVald& Public Disclosure Authorized A World Bank Comparative Study ?' -i I rThe PoliticalEconomy of Agricultural PricingPolicy VOLUME3 AFRICA ANDTHEM MEDITERRANEAN A World Bank Comparative Study Thne PoliticalEconomy o Agricultural PricingPolicy VOLUME 3 AFRICA ANDlTHE MEDITERRANEAN A World Bank Comparative Study Edited by * Anne 0. Krueger * Maurice Schifff * Alberto Valde' PUBLISHED FOR THE WORLD BANK The Johns Hopkins UniversityPress Baltimore and London (D 1991The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/The World Bank 1818 H Street, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20433, U.S.A. The Johns Hopkins University Press Baltimore, Maryland 21211-2190,U.S.A. All rights reserved Manufactured in the United States of America First printing October 1991 The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this publication are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the views and policies of the World Bank or its Board of Executive Directors or the countries they represent. The material in this publication is copyrighted. Requests for permission to reproduce portions of it should be sent to Director, Publications Department, at the address shown in the copyright notice above. The World Bank encourages dissemination of its work and will normally give permission promptly and, when the reproduction is for noncommercial purposes, without asking a fee. Permissions to photocopy portions for classroom use is not required, though notification of such use having been made will be appreciated. The complete backlist of publications from the World Bank is shown in the annual Index of Publications, which contains an alphabetical title list and indexes of subjects, authors, and countries and regions. -
Recovery Program
an ' Recovery Program PORTUGAL ~ . COUNTRY STUDY Economic Cooperation Administration February 1949 • Washington, D. C. European Recovery Program Economic Cooperation Administration Febrary 1949 e Washington, D. C. United States Government Printing Office, Washington :1949 This document is based on the best information regarding Portugal currently available to the Economic Cooperation Administration, and the views expressed herein are the considered judgment of the Admin istration. Both the text and the figures for 1949-50 are still prelimi nary in character; participating countries will therefore understand that this report cannot be used to support any request, either to the Organization for European Economic Cooperation or to the,Eonomic Cooperation Administration, for aid in any particular amount for any. country or for any particular purchase or payment. FBMRNTAY 14, 1949. Administrator. III Contents Page -" 1 PART I. SUAIU AR Y AND CONCLUSIONS -- ......................... PART II: CHAPTER I. THE CURRENT SITUATION OF THE PORTuGUES ECONOMY: A. General Characteristics of the Portuguese Economy ------ ------ - B. Production --------------------------------------------- 4 C. Internal Finance---------------------------- -------------- 6 D. External Accounts: 1. General Charatetistics -------- "--------------------------7 2. Balance of Payments..--------------------------------- 10 3. Gold and Foreign Exchange Btoldings--------- ------------- 12 CRAPTER II. JUSTIFICATION OF POSSIBLE ERP AID IN 1949-50: A. Introduction ---------------------------------------------- -
The Economy of Portugal and the European Union: from High Growth Prospects to the Debt Crisis
The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance 53 (2013) 345–352 Contents lists available at ScienceDirect The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance jo urnal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/qref The economy of Portugal and the European Union: From high growth prospects to the debt crisis a,∗ a,b a Werner Baer , Daniel A. Dias , Joao B. Duarte a University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, United States b CEMAPRE, Portugal a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t Article history: This paper documents some of the recent economic history of Portugal, since its accession to the EEC, to Received 12 April 2012 the adoption of the Euro and more recently to the financial and economic crisis. In the first part of the Accepted 14 June 2012 paper we show the economic performance of Portugal during the last 25 years till now, from the fast Available online 6 August 2012 growth of the late 1980s and early 1990s to the current recession. We point out some of the reasons for this trajectory – slow productivity growth, disconnection between productivity and wages, continued Keywords: external and public deficits – and choose three areas that must be improved in order to reverse the current Portugal downward spiral – justice needs to be more effective and faster, education needs to improve its quality European Union and distribution across the population, and the public administration must become more efficient. Core and periphery © 2012 The Board of Trustees of the University of Illinois. Published by Elsevier B.V. -
Miguel Centellas
Miguel Centellas January 2017 Croft Institute for International Studies and Department of Sociology & Anthropology 524 Lamar Hall University of Mississippi Office: +1 (662) 915-3605 University, MS 38677 Email: [email protected] ACADEMIC APPOINTMENTS University of Mississippi Croft Instructional Assistant Professor of Sociology & International Studies 2015-present Croft Visiting Assistant Professor of Political Science 2009-2013 Jackson State University Assistant Professor of Political Science 2013-2015 Mount St. Mary’s University Assistant Professor of Political Science 2008-2009 Dickinson College Visiting Assistant Professor of Latin American Politics 2006-2008 EDUCATION 2007 Western Michigan University PhD, Political Science Fields: Comparative Politics and Political Theory Dissertation: “Democracy on Stilts: Bolivia’s Democracy from Stability to Crisis” 1999 Western Michigan University MA, Political Science 1997 Central Michigan University BS, Political Science and History; Latin American studies minor Honors Thesis: “In Defense of the King: Finding a Just Title to the Kingdom of Perú” (translation and commentary on the 1571 Anónimo de Yucay) PUBLICATIONS Refereed Articles 2016 Centellas, Miguel. “The Santa Cruz Autonomía Movement: A Case of Non-Indigenous Ethnic Popular Mobilization?” Ethnopolitics 15 (2): 245-264. 2015 Centellas, Miguel. “Mixed-Member Election and Candidate Selection in Bolivia’s 1993 and 1997 Elections.” The Latin Americanist 59 (1): 3-22. 2013 Gugiu, Mihaiela Ristei and Miguel Centellas. “The Democracy Cluster Classification Index.” Political Analysis 21 (3): 334-349. 2012 Centellas, Miguel and Gregory J. Love. “We’re Off to Replace the Wizard: Lessons from a Collaborative Group Project Assignment.” PS: Political Science & Politics 45 (3): 506-512. 2011 Centellas, Miguel. “Preaching What We Practice: Bringing Scope and Methods ‘Back In’.” PS: Political Science & Politics 44 (4): 817-822. -
Rolando Gonzales Martinez CV (PDF)
Rolando Görlitz, Germany www.bayesgroup.org Gonzales Martinez +49 0170 3476480 [email protected] M.Sc. PostDoc B.Ec. Applied Ph.D. Data Economics candidate Statistics science CASUS Helmholtz-Zentrum Del Valle University University of Alcalá Universitetet i Agder Dresden-Rossendorf (HZDR) Bolivia, 2000-2004 Spain, 2009-2010 Norway, 2018-2020(e) Germany, 2020-present JOBS & AWARDS OTHER EDUCATION J-PAL Course on Evaluating Social Programs Macro-prudential Policies Jobs Events Awards Massachusetts Institute of Technology - MIT International Monetary Fund (IMF) Systematic Literature Reviews and Meta-analysis Theorizing and Theory Building Campbell foundation - Vrije Universiteit Halmstad University (HH, Sweden) 2021 Post-doctoral researcher data intensive 12/2020 Bayesian Modeling, Inference and Prediction Multidimensional Poverty Analysis research on SARS-CoV-2 University of Reading OPHI, Oxford University CASUS - Germany SKILLS AND TECHNOLOGIES 01/2020 First prize - TFI award Visiting Scholar- KU Leuven Academic Research 6/2019 & publishing Financial & Risk analysis University (Belgium) 14 years of experience in data science: mathemati- cal/statistical/econometric Consulting models for the government, 1/2018 Ph.D scholarship (Norway) private organizations and non- International Consultant, OPHI 8/2017 prot organizations (NGOs). Oxford University Mathematical modeling First prize, International Young 12/2016 LANGUAGES Statistician Prize, IAOS Deputy manager, BCP bank Spanish (native) Statistical analysis 5/2016 1/2016 Consultant, UNFPA English (TOEFL: 106) Researcher, data analyst & 1/2015 MatLab project coordinator, PEP Python 3/2014 Director, BayesGroup.org R, RStudio Currently, I mainly Stata work program- SQL, SAS ming in Python , Research & project 1/2013 Eviews, SPSS MatLab , Stata coordinator, UNFPA and R . LaTex, WinBugs 04/2012 First award, BCG competition RECENT PUBLICATIONS 9/2011 Financial Economist, UDAPE Which social program supports sustainable grass-root - nance? Machine-learning evidence.