Local Climate Impacts Profile for Sandwell 2010

1 The Sandwell Declaration on Climate Change

Sandwell Council acknowledges that • Evidence shows that climate change is occurring. • Climate change will continue to have far reaching effects on the UK’s people and places, economy, society and environment.

Sandwell Council is aware of the • Social, economic and environmental benefits which come from combating climate change. • Emissions targets agreed by central government and the programme for delivering change, as set out in the UK Climate Change Programme. • Opportunity for local government to lead the response at a local level, encouraging and helping local residents, local businesses and other organisations - to reduce their energy costs, to reduce congestion, to adapt to the impacts of climate change, to improve the local environment and to deal with fuel poverty in our communities. • Endorsement of this declaration by central government.

We commit our Council from 2007 to • Work with central government to contribute, at a local level, to the delivery of the UK Climate Change Programme, the Kyoto Protocol and the target for carbon dioxide reduction by 2010 and beyond. • Participate in local and regional networks for support. • Within the next two years develop plans with our partners and local communities to progressively address the causes and the impacts of climate change, according to our local priorities, securing maximum benefit for our communities. • Publicly declare, within appropriate plans and strategies, the commitment to achieve a significant reduction of greenhouse gas emissions from our own authority’s operations, especially energy sourcing and use, travel and transport, waste production and disposal and the purchasing of goods and services. • Assess the risk associated with climate change and the implications for our services and our communities of climate change impacts and adapt accordingly. • Encourage all sectors in our local community to take the opportunity to adapt to the impacts of climate change, to reduce their own greenhouse gas emissions and to make public their commitment to action. • Monitor the progress of our plans against the actions needed and publish the results.

SANDWELL METROPOLITAN BOROUGH COUNCIL acknowledges the increasing impact that climate change will have on our community during the 21st century and commits itself to tackling the causes and effects of a changing climate on our borough.

2 Cabinet Member’s Foreword

Tackling climate change must be central to Sandwell’s vision for its communities. Councils across the country have a key role to play in the development and delivery of action to curb the threat of climate change, particularly through cutting emissions of carbon dioxide, but also by adapting services and communities to the effects of climate change. Sandwell Council has publicly committed to fulfilling this ambition by signing the Sandwell Climate Change Declaration.

Adapting to Climate Change means we need to identify the action that we must take to address the inevitable impacts of climate change. These will protect our communities by making them resilient to, on the one hand, water shortages and, on the other flooding and in a similar way heat waves and cold snaps.

The Local Climate Impacts Profile shows the many ways in which a number of Sandwell Council’s Services have already had to adapt to severe weather. It highlights the problems that have been caused by such extremes which we expect will only increase as the climate changes over the next thirty years and beyond.

This document gives an indication of how services could be affected by climate change which will, in turn, give service providers and managers an idea of how their services might need to adapt over time.

Please take time to think about how severe weather often impacts your daily life, your journey to work for example, and the life of members of your family, young and old, as well as how you think it could affect them in the future.

Together we can build a well adapted community for all of the residents of Sandwell to be comfortable and prosperous for many years to come.

Councillor Derek Rowley (Cabinet Member for Safer Neighbourhoods)

3 CONTENTS

1. Executive Summary Next Steps

2. Introduction Aims and Objectives What is Climate Change? Planning for the Future The Character of Sandwell

3. Future Climate Projections Temperature Rainfall Position

4. Preparing the Local Climate Impacts Profile Service Area Interviews Weather Events Database

5. Significant Weather The implications of Climate Change for Public Health River Flooding Surface Water Flooding Lightning

6. Significant Weather Case Studies The Highways Winter Maintenance Sandwell Valley Country Park

Appendix 1: Resources and Contributions Appendix 2: Significant Weather Appendix 3: Sandwell Valley Country Park Expenditure

4 1. Executive Summary

The purpose of this report is to examine the potential impact of climate change on the community of Sandwell. It will do this by assessing the impacts that recent extreme weather events have had. With climate change it is likely that the frequency of these extreme events will increase and so this study will also consider the potential impact that it may have on our buildings and services.

Climate change is resulting from increased concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere which have now reached levels unprecedented for tens of thousands of years. Depending on the extent of future emissions global temperatures are likely to rise between 1.1 and 6.4°C above 1990 levels by the end of this century. The temperature rise will bring changes to weather patterns and will see continued melting of ice caps, glaciers and sea ice, changes in rainfall and the intensification of tropical cyclones. Across the globe, there will be more intense heat waves, droughts and more flooding.

For the UK, climate change is likely to mean hotter, drier summers (more heat waves), milder wetter winters, higher sea levels and an increased flood risk to coastal areas. Sandwell is likely to experience some major changes in temperature and precipitation, even by 2049, with rainfall showing a strong seasonal pattern and temperatures set to increase by nearly 2°C. Worryingly, the forecast for 2080 is much more severe with temperatures possibly increasing by 3°C and winter rainfall increasing by up to 20% from 1990 levels. Importantly, even the lowest emissions scenario still predicts large changes in both rainfall and temperature that Sandwell needs to prepare for if is to be resilient to the effects of climate change.

It is difficult to understand what these weather changes will mean to our way of life so the best way to analyse this is to look at the impact of localised extreme weather events that have taken place in the recent past. These give the best indication of what will happen more frequently in the future. Analysing how weather has already impacted on the work of the council can give us a reasonable indication of how it may continue to do so in the future and what action will therefore need to be taken to adapt to their impact.

Central and Local government have agreed that Local Authorities and Local Strategic Partnerships should lead the local actions on adapting to climate change. An agreed methodology has been established through the UK Climate Impacts Programme and this will help to assess the progress that is made in becoming more resilient to Climate Change.

The Council has recognised that climate change poses significant risks to its business and has, therefore, identified it as a Strategic Risk within the Corporate Risk register. A series of measures need to be put in place to manage this risk. It is evident that the response to the risks of climate change will vary across Council services with some having to deal with a greater impact than others. A risk based approach will be able to identify these services and prioritise the response. It is proposed that one service area will be used as a pilot to test this approach and also to provide tangible actions which will assist others in understanding the issues that are involved.

This Local Climate Change Impact Profile has gathered information from service area interviews, reports in local newspapers of weather events, library archives and the insurance claims database. This range of sources ensures a good indication and understanding of the potential impacts that may occur.

The potential health implications have been drawn from recent regional studies with the key findings being: • The impact is based on a mean temperature increase of between 1.5°C - 4.5°C in the summer • Death rates are likely to be up by 2% in the summer but down by 6.5% in winter mainly due to heart/ circulation and respiratory diseases.

5 • Illness rates from food poisoning may be up by 12%. Hay fever and allergies will continue to increase and skin cancer cases could become more common. • Due to the impact of the urban ‘heat island’ effect the temperatures will be higher in the urban areas and this will impact negatively on health. • It is likely that more deprived communities, such as Sandwell, will face greater impacts as they are located in areas with the greatest temperature increase. They have the smallest potential to adapt and they are generally less healthy and would be more susceptible even if exposure to change is equal.

The health service already has plans in place to deal with the life threatening impact of heatwaves on people.

River and surface water flooding have both a regional and localised impact but are very disruptive and stressful for those affected. The report examines where fooding incidents have taken place recently and the actions taken to reduce further occurrences, together with work that the Council and partners are undertaking to reduce potential future problems.

Two case studies - Highways winter maintenance plan and Sandwell Valley Country Park – go into more detail regarding the impact upon service delivery at present and identify those problems that will need to be addressed in the future.

Next steps

This report will be used, in the first instance, as a bank of information to inform service areas and our strategic partners about the kinds of risks that they may have to contend with, due to a changing climate, over the coming years. It is intended that, as the project progresses, a wide range of service areas and strategic partners will perform a sector specific risk management assessment. They will use our current risk management approach which highlights the particular challenges that their services face as well as a number of ways in which they can meet that challenge.

Alongside the new risk management analyses, it is proposed that a range of other projects will take place to begin to really push the climate change adaptation agenda forward in Sandwell. The next stage will be to produce a full adaptation strategy which will include a wide range of projects. Within this it is likely that there will be an assessment of the green infrastructure within the borough as well as an assessment and appreciation of how non-green infrastructure can be transformed to become adapted to climate change. One example that shows how these aspects of green infrastructure policy are already being fully considered is the ‘Building Schools for the Future’ programme that is currently being undertaken in the authority.

These projects should bring enough information together to ensure that a full, borough wide adaptation action plan can be written, received and implemented to the benefit of local people. A well-adapted community of Sandwell is the future aim and it is expected that, with hard work and a long term focus, the Council and its partners can put in place a range of measures to adapt their buildings and services to be able to maintain top quality services, now and in the future, for the people of Sandwell.

6 2. Introduction

Aims and Objectives

The purpose of this report is to examine the potential impact of climate change on the community of Sandwell. It will do this by assessing the impacts that recent extreme weather events have had. With climate change it is likely that the frequency of these extreme events will increase and so this study will also consider this potential impact. It is a first assessment of current vulnerability to extreme and prolonged weather events with a view to highlighting the Council services most affected, the changes to services that will be needed and some of the financial implications of those changes. Sandwell has been affected by weather events which has resulted in flooding from water courses, flash flooding from drains, excessive heat, drought, storms and snow. These events have impacted upon the everyday functioning of society including the operation of public services.

With the prospect that climate change is accelerating, it is expected that the intensity and frequency of extreme weather such as heavy rain, heat waves and drought will increase. It is important that public service providers, and businesses, assess the impact of climate change on their services and take action to improve their resilience to weather extremes.

This report aims to raise awareness of the impacts of extreme weather events and the influence of climate change, to assess the costs and other implications that these weather events are having on public services, to highlight possible future impacts of thee events and to provide information to help justify and inform Climate Change adaptation measures. It will set out the most significant extreme weather events over the last 10 years and it will identify the impacts of each event on services. It will highlight predicted changes in extreme events as the climate alters and use future predictions of climate change and extreme weather to assess how services may be affected as weather systems alter further over the next 30 years. The report also recognises that Sandwell is a part of the wider region and that what happens here will have an impact elsewhere. It follows the general approach that has been recommended by the UK Climate Impacts Programme and is known as a Local Climate Impacts Profile for Sandwell.

What is Climate Change?

Climate change is the greatest environmental challenge facing the world in the 21st Century. Rising temperatures are bringing changes to weather patterns and as a result there is likely to be an increased frequency and intensity of extreme weather conditions. These effects will be felt in the United Kingdom and across the world. The impact will not be the same everywhere with severe problems for people living in vulnerable regions and the resources in each of these areas will vary considerably and that will affect how they are able to meet the challenge.

We are, therefore, acting now to adapt to climate change and to reduce the risk that Climate Change presents. This report aims to show what impacts Climate Change has, and will have, in Sandwell.

Climate change will have a wide range of positive and negative impacts for Sandwell. The Department of Environment Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA) and the UK Climate Change Impact Programme have recently published the UK climate projections for the period up to 2080. The findings of the report specifically related to Sandwell are outlined in Chapter 6. However in essence, Climate Change brings an increased probability of more extreme weather events. Possible impacts may be to transport infrastructure, increased damage to buildings from storms, impacts on local ecosystems and biodiversity, scope to grow new crops, changing patterns of ill-health, impacts on land use planning, the local economy and public health.

7 It is useful to look first at the global position before focussing on Sandwell. A recent report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) leaves us in no doubt that human activity is the primary driver of the observed changes in climate. The main human influence on global climate is the emission of the key greenhouse gases - carbon dioxide (CO2), methane and nitrous oxide. The accumulation of these gases in the atmosphere strengthens the greenhouse effect which leads to a warming of the atmosphere. At present, just over 7 billion tonnes of CO2 is emitted globally each year through fossil fuel use, and an additional 1.6 billion tonnes are emitted by land use change, largely deforestation. The concentrations of these gases in the atmosphere have now reached levels unprecedented for tens of thousands of years.

The result is that global temperatures are likely to rise between 1.1 and 6.4°C above 1990 levels by the end of this century, depending on our emissions. The temperature rise will bring changes to weather patterns and will see continued melting of ice caps, glaciers and sea ice, changes in rainfall and the intensification of tropical cyclones. Across the globe, there will be more intense heat waves, droughts and more flooding. There will be a further rise in global sea levels of between 20 and 60cm by the end of this century. There may be severe problems for regions where people are particularly vulnerable to changes in the weather. Conditions for growing crops will change and it is anticipated that without major alterations to growing systems food shortages and the spread of disease are predicted. The social, environmental and economic costs of climate change could be huge.

For the UK, climate change is likely to mean hotter, drier summers (more heat waves), milder wetter winters, higher sea levels and an increased flood risk to coastal areas. It is difficult to understand what these increases will mean to our way of life and so the best way is to look at the impact of localised weather events that have taken place in the recent past. Weather events are the best indicators that are currently available of what will happen in the future. Analysing how weather has already impacted on the work of the council can give us a reasonable indication of how it may continue to do so in the future.

Planning for the Future

Central and Local government have agreed that Local Authorities and Local Strategic Partnerships should lead the local actions on adapting to climate change. An agreed methodology has been established through the UK Climate Impacts Programme and that this will help assess the progress that is being made to become more resilient to Climate Change.

The methodology sets out a series of levels that are to be achieved with each one incorporating a number of activities. It recognises that climate impacts are local and that each authority’s response should take account of these differences and plan for them in a way that suits their specific circumstances.

It covers the full range of council’s activities including; the delivery of services, the development of local infrastructure, support for businesses and management of the natural environment. The indicator measures progress on assessing and managing these climate change risks and opportunities, and how appropriate action is incorporated into local authority and partners’ strategic planning and projects.

In the future this report will be used as a bank of information to inform service areas and our strategic partners about the kinds of risks that they may have to contend with in coming years. It is intended that, as the project progresses, a wide range of service areas and strategic partners will perform a sector specific risk management assessment. They will use our current risk management approach which highlight the particular challenges that their services face as well as a number of ways in which they can meet that challenge.

In the first instance, the Council has recognised that climate change poses a significant risk to our service delivery and has been identified as a Strategic Risk and is set out in the Corporate Risk register.

8 A series of measures have been put in place to manage this risk. It is evident that the response to the risks of climate change will vary across Council services with some having to deal with a greater impact than others. A risk based approach will be able to identify these services and prioritise the response. It is proposed that one service area will be used as a pilot to test this approach and also to provide tangible actions which will assist others in understanding the issues that are involved. Discussions are currently taking place with the Highways and Environment division to create a case study which will set out a methodology for analysing and implementing climate change risks. In addition, it is probable that change will have an impact on the health of people of Sandwell and a further case study will be developed by the Primary Care Trust. This approach can then be rolled out across the whole council and the wider strategic partnership.

Alongside the new risk management analyses, it is proposed that a range of other projects will take place to begin to really push the climate change adaptation agenda forward in Sandwell. The next stage will be to produce a full adaptation strategy which will include a wide range of projects. Within this it is likely that there will be an assessment of the green infrastructure within the borough as well as an assessment and appreciation of how non-green infrastructure can be transformed to become adapted to climate change. One example where these aspects are being fully considered is the ‘Building Schools for the Future’ programme that is currently being undertaken in the authority.

These projects should bring enough information together to ensure that a full, borough wide adaptation action plan can be written, received and implemented to the benefit of local people.

The Character of Sandwell

The location and physical characteristics of Sandwell have an important bearing on the anticipated impacts of climate change. Sandwell is located in the Black Country to the north west of Birmingham, and forms part of the west midlands conurbation. The borough has a population of around 300,000, has about 120,000 dwellings, with industry and commerce employing 125,000 people and open spaces totalling around 8,600 hectares.

The land area of the borough is small and due to the nature of weather systems, and certain extreme weather events, the impacts will generally affect the whole of the Black Country and often the West Midlands region.

Sandwell is a heavily urbanised area with business and residential properties intermixed. There is also a highly developed transport network including a motorway running through the borough, with hundreds of smaller roads, a metro system, a train system and a large canal path. This has an impact on temperature levels as well as the rainwater runoff pattern.

The landform of Sandwell is dominated by the Rowley Hills which form the watershed between the River Tame and the River Stour and is the highest point in the West Midlands Conurbation. The majority of the borough is drained by the River Tame which then flows through Birmingham and Staffordshire to the River Trent. The river Stour drains the south western part of the Borough and then flows into the river Severn and the Bristol Channel. This urban catchment area has a major impact on the nature and flow of the rivers with a rapid rise in the level of flow following heavy rainfall resulting in a significant impact on areas outside the borough.

The geology of the area is dominated by the South Staffordshire Coalfield with a mixture of sedimentary rocks and alluvial deposits. The exploitation of the coalfield and the subsequent industrialisation of the area has resulted in widespread diffuse pollution. There are widespread areas of heavy clay soils that may present shrinkage problems with increased dry weather and also problems with the removal of surface water due to impermeability. There are also a number of igneous intrusions into the coal measures at the Rowley Hills and this, because of the steep slopes that have been created and the impervious material, will lead to rapid runoff during heavy rainfall.

9 3. Future Climate Projections

The following are the climate change projections for Sandwell as prepared by the UK Climate Impact Programme (UKCIP). This section outlines the potential changes and introduces the resulting impacts.

This data comes from the UKCIP ‘UK Probabilistic Projections of Climate Change over Land’ dataset, which was released in June 2009. This data represents predicted change from the 1990 baseline. The predictions for two key time periods are considered; 2020-2050 and 2050-2080. The years 2050 and 2080 reflect major milestones in government targets regarding the mitigation of and adaptation to climate change.

The projections are more detailed than they have been in the past and are now set out on a 25km grid system. These predictions illustrate the possible outcomes of three greenhouse gas emission levels which have varying severity, namely, Low, Medium and High. The data represents the most likely outcome for each variable at each emissions scenario.

SANDWELL (grid no.1429) 2020-2049 2050-2080 Variable Low Medium High Low Medium High

Change in mean annual 1.688 1.723 1.783 2.393 2.791 3.242 temp (deg C)

Change in mean winter 7.84 8.397 8.754 13.926 16.997 20.163 precipitation (%)

Change in mean summer -6.863 -8.306 -9.149 -13.299 -18.114 -19.343 precipitation (%)

Figure 1. The UKCiP climate change projection for Sandwell

Temperature

The table above shows that temperatures in Sandwell could rise by up to 3.2°C by 2079 under the high emissions scenario (see fig. 1). Even under the low emissions scenario, temperatures are still set to rise by 2.4°C. Shorter term increases could be as great as 1.8°C by 2049.

It is not easy to visualise what this might mean but we expect that heat waves would have higher peak temperatures and that they would last for a longer period than they do now. Also because of reduced wind ventilation in urban spaces and absorption of heat by materials such as tarmac and concrete, the actual temperatures experienced may be greater than predicted by the projections. This will have a negative effect on people’s wellbeing and will particular impact on the more elderly population. The demand for drinking water may also rise and given that the West Midlands is likely to be a water stressed region we, as a Council, should be looking to minimise the drinking water we use and increase our use of captured rainwater and recycled water. With the current buildings in the area there will be an increased use of air conditioning systems which will result in large costs for businesses and services, as well as increasing Sandwell’s carbon footprint. Designers of new buildings will be able to incorporate features that will be more natural than the mechanical solutions used previously.

10 Rainfall

There is a prominent seasonal pattern in the predictions for precipitation changes, with winters set to experience an increase and summers a dramatic decrease in precipitation (see fig1). For 2049, winter precipitation could increase by as much as 8.8% and summer precipitation decrease by up to 9.1%. Even the lowest emissions could cause a 7.5% change in precipitation for both seasons. By 2080, under the high emissions scenario, winter precipitation could increase by 20.2% and summer precipitation decrease by approximately 19.3%. Under the low emissions scenario, the changes could be as great as 13 or 14%.

Although Sandwell does not currently have a high risk of flooding, the potential increase in winter precipitation could change this, even under the lowest emissions scenarios. Sandwell’s urban drainage systems may be unable to cope with the influx of rain water that result from the increase in winter rainfall. As with changes in temperatures, rainfall could also impact upon the severity of extreme weather events such as storms.

Summary position

Sandwell is likely to experience some major changes in temperature and precipitation, even by 2049, with rainfall showing a strong seasonal pattern and temperatures set to increase by nearly 2°C. Worryingly, the forecast for 2080 is much more severe with temperatures possibly increasing by 3°C and winter rainfall increasing by up to 20% from 1990 levels. Importantly, even the lowest emissions scenario still predicts large changes in precipitation and temperature that Sandwell needs to prepare for if is to be resilient to the effects of climate change.

11 4. Preparing the Local Climate Impacts Profile

It is important to get an understanding of the impact that recent weather events have had in Sandwell. There is no single database of this information and so a number of sources had to be brought together. An important one is the local newspaper archives of the Express and Star which are available in West Bromwich Library. Reports from the last ten years were analysed in order to obtain an idea of the impact of unusual and severe weather conditions in recent times.

Alongside this work, a trawl of the database used by the Communication Unit of Sandwell MBC was performed. These looked at articles where the council had been questioned by reporters, had released their own press releases regarding events and other articles where the council had no significant input into their creation but had a reference in the story itself.

A very good source of information was the Insurance Unit which has a regularly updated spreadsheet highlighting the insurance claims that are being made due to adverse weather events. This shows the service area, building and equipment that have been impacted or destroyed as well as the overall cost of the claim.

Service Area Interviews

To provide a clearer view of the impact of these events, meetings with staff from relevant Council departments have helped with gathering further information on a range of incidents specifically relevant to their work. It is clear that only very direct costs are taken into account with little understanding of unseen costs such as extra staff hours or days lost to the event. In order to gain a broader picture of the impact of specific weather events, meetings also took place with officers from partner agencies, including those from public service providers, the Primary Care Trust and the Environment Agency.

Using the weather data and impacts found, alongside the future projections from the UK Climate Impacts Programme this report will look at temperature and precipitation changes for Sandwell over the last 10 years and into the future.

Weather Events Database

This had led to the development of a database of extreme weather events with the intention of collecting as much information as possible about how they are affecting services across the borough. These events are initially grouped into weather types so that it is readily accessible by Service Managers. They are able to look through the dates to select the specific event that they want to consider.

Within each event there are a range of fields that can be updated or looked at to begin to understand the wider implications of the events. Fields in this part of the database include; the duration of the event, a first report on it, the consequences of the event for the service and the impacts in the short and long term, the advice given by the service responsible for the event, the geographical area that was affected, the affect of the event on the Council’s reputation, any council policies that are affected by the event or help to provide resilience to the event, and any further training or action required after the event to ensure a similar event is dealt with properly in the future.

There is also opportunity in the database for the effects of the event to be subdivided by service allowing contact details to be updated and the costs (both direct and indirect) and staff time lost to the event to be recorded. A clear picture will then be obtained of the overall cost to the Council.

12 5. Significant Weather and Case Studies

The implications of Climate Change for Public Health

Over the past twenty years, there has been increasing interest in the association between weather conditions and illness and deaths due to the potential impacts of climate change. Indeed, the World Health Organisation’s (WHO) Director General, Margaret Chan, has highlighted climate change as one of the top priorities for global public health. The National Health Service’s Chief Knowledge Officer, Sir Muir Gray, named climate change “the defining challenge of the 21st century”, calling for a transformation in the practice of public health.

The NHS have already taken action to adapt to climate change, creating health and social care infrastructure that is more resilient to climatic effects, developing ‘Heat wave’, ‘Gale’ and ‘Flood’ plans and is aiming to increase awareness of how people can adapt to climate changes.

Detailed assessments of the health impacts of climate change need to be undertaken so that appropriate adaptation measures can be developed. To this end a study has recently been undertaken into the health effects of climate change in the West Midlands and it sets out the probable impacts for 2020, 2050 and 2080. The key findings are all be applicable to Sandwell, and those relevant to 2050 are set out below. • The impact is based on a mean temperature increase of between 1.5˚c - 4.5˚c in the summer • Death rates are likely to be up by 2% in the summer but down by 6.5% in winter mainly due to heart/ circulation and respiratory diseases. • Illness rates from food poisoning maybe up by 12%. Hay fever and allergies will continue to increase and skin cancer cases could become more common. • Due to the impact of the urban ‘heat island’ effect the temperatures will be higher in the urban areas and this will impact negatively on health. • It is likely that more deprived communities will face greater impacts as they are located in areas, such as Sandwell, with the greatest temperature increase, they have the smallest potential to adapt and they are generally less healthy and, therefore, would be more susceptible even if exposure to change is equal.

The report also notes a number of adaptation strategies that need to be put in place or to be continually reviewed. • Continue to use and update the heat wave plan. • Raise awareness of health risks during periods of warm weather and actions that can be taken to prevent flood damage. • Ensure that new build property is suitable for long term use and change. • To support the increase in green space in urban areas to reduce the urban heat island effect. • To support the delivery of appropriate flood defences and river management systems.

The regional study provides a very good basis on which to further study the potential detailed impacts upon the residents of Sandwell.

13 River Flooding

The catchment of the Tame covers an area of nearly 1500 km² and contains a population of about 1.7 million people. Approximately 42% of the Tame basin is urbanised, making it the most heavily urbanised river basin in the United Kingdom. The current position in Sandwell is that it is mostly at risk from flooding occurring in the main river Tame and the Oldbury Arm. The main river Tame floodplain is largely a green space corridor although the Environment Agency has identified that there are some properties at risk from flooding in West Bromwich around the Yew Tree and Hamstead areas. The Oldbury Arm of the river Tame, however, places a number of properties near Horseley Heath in Tipton in a zone that may flood quite regularly. There are also a number of properties at risk from flooding concentrated in Wednesbury, Tipton and Oldbury. The River Tame and the Oldbury Arm are represented by the Environment Agency as ‘maintained river channels’, which means that the river reaches, are regularly inspected for erosion and/or vegetation problems.

There has been a lot of flood prevention works in Sandwell, the following are particularly important. Work was carried out in Sandwell Valley in the 1980s. Forge Mill Lake was created as a storm water retention basin by enlarging an existing depression. The river was dredged to deepen it and the gravel used to construct an island in the lake. This evolved into part of a nature reserve, at present leased to the Royal Society for the Protection of Birds. At about the same time a similar arrangement was constructed at Sheepwash Urban Park, utilising old brickworks excavations as a storm water basin to relieve flooding by the Oldbury Arm.

In 2005, the river’s alignment through Perry Hall Park in Perry Barr, Birmingham, just downstream of Sandwell Valley, was remodelled to slow the flow, alleviate flooding and create improved habitat for wildlife, as part of the Sustainable Management of Urban Rivers and Floodplains (SMURF) project. Nonetheless, in June 2007, after heavy rain, the river burst its banks in the Witton area of Birmingham (just downstream of Perry Barr) and at Kingsbury Water Park.

In 2009, the Environment Agency launched a public consultation on its proposed flood alleviation measures and is currently considering what actions should be taken. These will be taken into account in the later stages of this work.

The flooding of rivers occurs in Sandwell due, in the main, to flash flooding. That is to say that the hard surfaces, both man made and natural, convey water to the nearest watercourse very quickly as little of the water is absorbed into the ground. The water levels in the watercourses rise quickly meaning that flooding can occur at a substantial rate. This is a common issue across Birmingham and the Black Country.

The majority of minor watercourses within Sandwell are culverted. The size of these culverts have been monitored and checked by the Environment Agency and they indicated that it is expected that the design standard of the 100 year return period flow will be contained by them. Most notable watercourses include Swan Brook in Tipton and the Hockley Brook river system in Smethwick.

Sandwell also tends to be subjected to regular road flooding due to extreme heavy rainfall or blocked road gullies. This could pose some pressure on emergency planning, but the principal risk locations have been represented in the current Emergency Plan for the Borough.

Historically, most significant river flooding events date back to the 1980’s and 1990’s, which affected a range of properties within the Borough. Following increased culvert maintenance and some flood defence schemes, no major flooding has occurred in recent years. However, it was noted during the consultations with the local Drainage Officer that the severe flooding problem connected to the motorway culvert in Titford, Blackheath still exists. The recent construction of an additional storm culvert has not been able to fully resolve this problem, and this particular location is therefore still under investigation.

14 Recent flooding episodes

The Express & Star website states there was heavy rain across the region during July 2008. Unfortunately, the residents in Cotterills Road, Tipton experienced flooding of their homes as a result of a number of factors coming together. The first was the heavy rainfall combined with a high water table after a wet summer which was made worse by the problem of litter blocking a drainage grille structure. These two problems were allied to the raising of a path behind the houses which resulted in water cascading down into the gardens. The damage caused by this was particularly serious and the replacement of the grille cost £50,000.

As climate change gives us more extreme weather events it’s likely that structures in rivers that once weren’t a problem may start to have a far bigger impact. Therefore, it is very likely that the management and maintenance of these rivers will need to change. The chance of flooding happening depends, in the main, on rainfall events. We measure the probability of flooding in percentage terms. So, a 1 in 100 year rainfall event gives you a 1% chance of flooding if you are in that part of the floodplain.

One major way in which the water system could be updated to negate the impacts of climate change is the installation of sustainable urban drainage systems in all new developments. It slows down the flow of water as it can be held back in ponds and swales.

Surface Water Flooding

Despite Climate Change generally causing the trend of summers becoming warmer and drier, weather patterns are showing that there are an increasing amount of heavy downpour storms also occurring during the summer months. This increase in rainfall is causing an increase in flooding incidents, some examples of which are; -

The summer floods of 2007 were severe across the whole of the country with 7 weeks of almost continuous rain from the middle of June. The period of rain started with an extreme rainfall event and in Sandwell this caused severe flooding in a number of locations. There are a number of notable locations: At Churchbridge, Oldbury, the road suffered deep flooding making it impassable to traffic. Surface water from large impermeable areas poured onto the highway and overwhelmed the highway drainage system.

In Throne Road, Rowley Regis, surface water flooding had an effect not only on the highway but also two homes. In this case it was proven that the public surface water sewer had been overloaded by the volume of water and had flooded back up through the highway drainage system and the house drainage system. Since this event Severn Trent have rectified defects in the public sewer system and fitted flood protection measures to the two properties, Sandwell Council have also made improvements to the drainage system on the highway.

Flooding at Biddleston Grove, Brackendale Drive and Spruce Road, Yew Tree Estate was Sandwell’s most significant flood of 2007 in terms of the number of properties flooded. Roads and a number of homes were flooded from a watercourse that had been culverted when the estate was built. A trash screen on the mouth of the culvert became blocked and water came over land following it natural path to the continuation of the watercourse behind homes in Brooklands. The Council now have access to the land and clean the screen on a monthly basis. In addition, the highway drainage in Brackendale Road and Spruce Road was improved and is now cleansed on a three monthly basis.

On Roway Lane in Oldbury, flooding at its junction with Union Road was over 1.2m deep and also affected 3 homes. The flooding was a combination of surface water flooding, river flooding and sewer flooding. All roads sloping towards this location bring excess surface water and the road gullies drain

15 to a local watercourse that quickly rises to a level higher than the road. A public surface water sewer, serving the adjacent development, discharges direct to the River Tame which meant that flooding occurred to a level higher than Roway Lane. Floodwater backed up along this sewer and added to the already flooded road. In addition the Black Country Trunk Foul Sewer also flooded at this location adding considerably to the depth of floodwater and sewage.

Following this event Severn Trent fitted a non-return flap valve to the surface water sewer to prevent a reoccurrence of the River flooding element. Sandwell also made improvements to highway drainage on surrounding roads in an attempt to drain surface water from the highway into different drainage systems.

The only significant flooding event to take place in 2008 occurred in July. Sandwell had 3 local flash storms just a few hours apart (7pm, 10pm & 1am). The main affected location was again Roway Lane, Oldbury.

The flooding at this location if anything was worse than it had been in 2007. It was again a combination of surface water flooding and sewer flooding. The river did not flood due to a non return flap valve that had been fitted to the surface water sewer to prevent water from backing up. The major element of flooding was proven to be foul flooding from Severn Trent’s Black Country Trunk Sewer.

Following this event Severn Trent carried out internal inspections of the trunk sewer and found some maintenance issues that may have contributed to the problem. They are carrying out hydraulic modelling of the trunk sewer to see if it has the capacity to deal with this level of storm, which was shown to be a 1 in 50 year event.

Similar to 2008, 2009 has seen one significant event. This was at the end of June and appears to have caused mainly sewer flooding, most predominately in the Tividale and Great Barr areas. Numerous manhole covers blew off and caused damage to the road surface, The cost to Sandwell for carriageway repairs alone amounted to in excess of £30,000.

Roway Lane again flooded, however on this occasion there does not appear to have been any sewer flooding from the Black Country Trunk Sewer. Accordingly only the road flooded and this did not have an effect on the surrounding properties.

Summary

Generally speaking longer periods of heavy rain are likely to give rise to river flooding. In Sandwell the two major rivers, the Tame and Stour must be carefully examined to ensure that problems are identified quickly in the future. It is expected that the annual rainfall is due to reduce in the Midlands by 10 to 15% by 2050. During the summers, river flows are expected to be 50 to 80% down. In this case these rivers, some of which are already polluted, will be even more concentrated, which means they have a negative impact on the existing biodiversity that is in or around them. This may also cause smells during dry weather and possibly become a health hazard.

Sandwell’s flooding problems are worse when we get short high intensity storms. These cause flash floods that overwhelm highway drainage and the public sewer system. Sandwell’s flooding issues are mainly surface water and sewer flooding.

The last few years of increased rainfall have caused the water table to rise and there has been an increase of groundwater flooding. Fortunately in Sandwell this is not a severe problem and just causes waterlogged gardens or water seepage through the highway surfaces. In the past two years Sandwell have had to install an increasing number of land drains in the highway to deal with groundwater flooding.

16 The government have introduced a new Flood and Water Management Act. It removes the right for new development to connect to the public surface water sewer system. Instead developers will have to introduce Sustainable Urban Drainage Systems (SuD’s) that local authorities will have to adopt and maintain. SuD’s attempt to mimic a natural greenfield site were water would soak into the ground and drain slowly into watercourses. To achieve this, the use of permeable surfacing is likely to become wide spread. These surfaces allow rainfall to soak through the surface into the ground or retention tanks and then to flow away at a controlled rate. While this type of surfacing will work quite well with constant light rain, heavy storms are likely to flood these areas for a while until the water is able to soak through the surface. This means that there will have to be a change in public perception of flooded areas with people accepting that short term flooding of roads and parking areas is an acceptable and necessary form of water management.

Lightning

Lightning is an atmospheric discharge of electricity accompanied by thunder, which typically occurs during thunderstorms. Over the past ten years, there have been twelve significant lightning strikes in Sandwell. All of these have affected schools, which is probably because they are large stand alone buildings. Across the borough, the cost of these lightning strikes has exceeded £136,500 over the ten year period.

Bristnall Hall Technology College has been the most severely affected, having been struck by lightning three times since 2005 always in the month of July. In 2005, a lightning strike to the reception area of the building caused damage to electric sockets, computer equipment, switches and network cards. The total insurance claim for this damage was £13,585. In 2007, lightning destroyed the controls on the schools heating/hot water system and energy conservation equipment with the total cost of that being £827.25. Most recently the school was hit by lighting causing damage to the heating system and security alarm worth £3,000. It is clear that lightning can cause serious damage and measures need to be investigated to reduce its impact.

17 6. Significant Weather Case Studies

The Highways Winter Maintenance

The impact of snow and ice on the highways network has probably the greatest impact on the majority of the residents and businesses in Sandwell of all weather events. The current winter maintenance period in Sandwell runs for eighteen weeks from the middle of November until the middle of March. This is the period when historically temperatures are most likely to fall to zero and below resulting in the need to carry out treatment to the network. In recent years this has been more variable but occurrences have remained infrequent so the duration of the maintenance period has not been changed. The climate change scenarios indicate that winters are likely to be milder and wetter. However, this does not preclude episodes of very cold temperatures and snow and it is possible, that as it is anticipated that it will be wetter, this may lead to heavier snow fall. This is particularly difficult to predict and makes it even more important that the service makes provision for a range of different situations and is able to respond to changes very quickly.

The current winter maintenance service involves the treatment of the carriageways on the adopted highway. However, a priority network has been devised which does not include all public roads in the borough but does include those roads that are essential to maintain vehicular access on main routes and to locations that provide important services. By keeping this network of roads free from ice and snow it is then possible to keep vehicles moving and the majority of destinations accessible. Currently most of the time preventative maintenance is undertaken, which involves spreading salt to prevent ice from forming rather than treating roads where ice has already formed or snow has fallen. When snow has fallen at a rate where salt that has been spread is no longer effective in its clearance, then ploughs or excavators are used to remove it. The treatment of footways with salt or the clearance of snow only takes place at a small number of key locations such as busy shopping areas, transport interchanges and hospitals. During periods of prolonged snow that remains on the ground for a considerable time then roads and footways that are not included as part of the priority network are cleared.

During very severe conditions with prolonged snow fall it can become necessary to concentrate resources on a reduced network of roads. These are the strategic routes in the Borough. If these roads can be kept clear then it is possible to keep traffic moving between major intersections and on major routes to help prevent the borough from becoming grid locked. From experience it has been found that traffic does become severely affected during such circumstances and while it is possible to cope with the conditions that are being experienced this may not be possible in the future if heavy snow fall as experienced on a regular basis. The impact of this would be far reaching and would affect everyone. The inability to travel around the borough may prevent individuals from reaching their place of work. This would impact on all services and industry. If it is possible to keep main routes clear between the more important destinations and public transport is able to operate on these routes then it should be possible to maintain reasonable levels of public service. There is a clear risk to emergency services from the point of view that crews will have to drive in poor driving conditions but also the risk to those people that they would be attending due to the delays in reaching their destination. There will also be vulnerable members of society such as the elderly and the sick who would be at risk if they were to venture out of their homes.

While the local authority will have its part to play keeping the highway accessible there will be a need for all other bodies and public services to look at their own service and responsibilities. If the local authority is making it possible for the general public to gain access to services through the network then other services must make sure that their own services are also accessible to the public and for their own staff and vehicles. The same will apply to private industry and their premises. All private and public bodies will need to take responsibility for the treatment or clearance of snow from their footways, roads, car parks and service areas to whatever level is required to allow that service or business to continue to operate as normal. A working party could be set up by the local authority to work with all other public services and local industry to share knowledge and experience of how to deal with the treatment of the highway. This could be used to develop similar working practices, so

18 that a consistent approach can be developed by all concerned. The Council has an extremely good weather monitoring system that it operates in conjunction with a weather forecasting company which enables it to take appropriate action to deal with the various winter weather conditions. It may be possible to develop this system so that other services are able to take advantage of the information that it provides helping to achieve consistency throughout the sector in the way that action is taken.

The whole issue of climate change and its potential effects on how local authorities will provide a winter maintenance service in the future revolves around the UKCIP projections which states that, over the next 70 years we can expect wetter milder winters. However, we should remain open minded about what could happen and the effects that this could have on the way in which Sandwell delivers its winter maintenance service. We must be prepared to learn from others that already have valuable experience and to adapt with changes that take place. Hopefully, as the weather patterns change we will be able to change with it over a long period of time, thus allowing for the development and improvement of our service within an acceptable time frame.

Sandwell Valley Country Park

Sandwell Valley Country Park encompasses a variety of habitats, landform and land uses. There are large areas of agricultural use, forestry and nature conservation habitats. The Park has extensive areas that are used for a range of public events. By understanding the issues that have affected the running of the park in the past a greater understanding of the type of events, their frequency and the impact on the environment can be gained to ensure they are properly managed to reduce both the risk of cancellation and costs of remediation.

The major problems have centred round events and it has been necessary to change, or move events on several occasions. Rainfall on higher ground in the valley soaks through gradually, rather than running away quickly into the river. Although the agricultural side of the Country Park has not been affected so far, the walled garden has been, with losses of crops due to the leaching of nutrients from the soil and standing water causing crops to rot. The increase in rainfall has also led to an increase in the populations of slugs and snails, which has caused further loss of crops. Early budding brought on by climate change has been followed by late frosts which has caused loss of fruit. The following sections give more detail of the impact of current weather events on the activities in the Valley and an indication of how this will affect future activities.

The severe weather effects of climate change can have an affect on agriculture and in particular the growth of crops and also have a significant effect on the ability to drive harvesting machinery on some of the wetter fields. This can result in reduced forage crops and the need to buy in feed in very wet years. An increase in precipitation across the whole of Sandwell Valley results in shorter growing seasons and waterlogged fields, decreasing the time cattle are in the fields and increasing in the time that cattle need supplementary feeding, with a corresponding increase in costs.

During normal years the dairy herd is kept inside from October to April to avoid damage to fields and to maintain milk yield through supplementary feeding at a time when the nutritional value and bulk of grass is low. The Hereford herd normally remains out of doors throughout the winter, but prolonged periods of heavy snowfall or frozen ground could make supplementary feeding difficult.

Drought also has major implications for agriculture as long hot summers with above average temperatures reduce the quality of grass and can cause long term damage to the soil structure. Unpredictable weather patterns have affected both haymaking and silage production, with traditional dates for both activities being changed to reflect changes in the weather. The main implication of this has been the need to have staff and machinery on stand by for breaks in the weather.

19 Woodlands can act as a carbon sink for the whole of Sandwell and hence make a contribution to reducing the Borough’s carbon footprint. Having said that the carbon fixing capacity of soils depends upon the vegetation that is growing on it and how it is managed. As a general rule gardens, allotments and flower beds have a carrying capacity of around 550 tCO2 per hectare. The figure for semi-natural woodland is around 1,600 tCO2 per hectare and heath and scrubland is as high as 2,400 tCO2 per hectare.

With several large areas of woodland within Sandwell Valley, high winds could be another major problem. A survey was carried out recently to identify potentially dangerous trees near paths and remove them. Rangers also regularly inspect the line of paths through the Country Park. Heavy flooding followed by prolonged period of drought has caused premature leaf fall and cracking of trees due to stress.

Changes in weather can have an impact on the health of trees generally. In storm conditions there are risks of both healthy and sick tress, in full leaf, being blown down. This can result in damage to both people and property and disruption to the transport network giving rise to increased insurance claims. Alongside that, certain species of trees are vulnerable to rises in temperature and dryness so trees are clearly a key problem that needs to be examined and then managed. A further implication of warmer, drier conditions is that new diseases migrating north which are likely to kill trees. It may be that oaks, sycamores and horse chestnut trees will suffer in the same way that elms did back in the 1970’s.

Flood alleviation work has already been carried out at Swan pool to reduce the effects of so called ‘100 year floods’, by increasing the capacity of the outflow. Despite this work, extensive precipitation can still cause problems downstream where the stream runs through an area of the farm complex adjoining the walled garden and tea bar.

As discussed previously, Forge Mill Lake, in Sandwell Valley, lies adjacent to the River Tame and was created in the early 1980s as a balancing lake to alleviate flooding further downstream in Birmingham. The opportunity was taken at the time to create a wetland habitat for wildlife, and the lake is now a Sandwell MBC managed Local Nature Reserve, and forms part of an RSPB reserve.

When the lake was designed, it was anticipated that serious flooding from the river would occur once every 50 years. With climate change now a reality, the Environment Agency has predicted that the frequency could now be every five years and more capacity is required to accommodate this floodwater. They therefore propose to lower the spillway section between the river and lake by one metre, enabling the anticipated more frequent flood waters to flow into the lake at a lower level of flood, to reduce flood damage downstream in Perry Barr and Birmingham.

Flooding may have a detrimental effect on ground and waterside nesting birds and other wildlife and biodiversity in Sandwell Valley. If flooding occurs during the breeding season, specifically between March and July it can seriously affect the future of those birds and animals. Although this has happened only three times, most recently in June 2007, it is likely to be a more common occurrence in the future.

By way of adapting to this change, Sandwell MBC and the RSPB have proposed to the Environment Agency that habitat improvements are made to minimise damage in the event of flooding. These include re-profiling the lakes` islands to create a higher “refuge” should flooding occur, the creation of floating islands, and the planting of further common reed beds around the lakeside will also help alleviate problems.

It has also been requested that the footpath across the spillway, which is part of the Sustrans National Cycle Route, and a well used footpath and bridleway, is re-profiled to allow continued disabled access around the lake and incorporated into a bridge structure that would allow flood waters to pass underneath.

20 Many events take place in the Valley and they can be badly affected by water problems. The landform of the Valley has resulted in high water retention within the soil with the lower areas of the Valley being boggy and marshy in places. Flooding of the lower levels of Sandwell Park Farm was an annual occurrence until a large drain off the car park was installed.

Both large and small scale events take place in Sandwell Valley, some organised by the Council’s events team, some by external organisations who hire the showground and the remainder, including craft fairs, food fairs and seasonal events, by Sandwell Valley staff.

In recent years there has been an increase in the need to either relocate shows and events, or to hire and buy plant and materials to allow shows to go ahead on existing sites. Heavy rain up to two weeks ahead of a show can affect events. If this is followed by significant rainfall in the week and days before an event, flooding can make the site unusable.

The implications of moving an event before it takes place should not be underestimated, as this may involve either cancelling or re-locating marquees and other equipment. Existing contracts with artistes also have to be honoured. For this reason the decision to move an event is not taken lightly. Total cancellation of an event is a rare occurrence and only happens when especially extreme weather conditions are forecast for a site which is already waterlogged.

The alternative to relocation involves a large amount of site work, including the hiring of plant such as road rollers to harden the surface and remove water. In addition to physical ground works, solutions in the past have involved laying boards, plastic interlocking matting and carpets in marquees.

All of these solutions have cost implications, which can only increase in future years and need to be taken into account in future events planning.

21 Appendix 1: Resources and Contributions

This report was written and compiled by John Darnbrook, Project Officer in Partnering and Improvement, with support from Terry Jones, Sustainable Development Manager, Partnering and Improvement.

Resources

DEFRA Website Natural England Website UKCiP Website GOWM Website Black Country Strategic Flood Risk Assessment Document Birmingham LCLIP Shropshire LCLIP Walsall LCLIP Wolverhampton LCLIP

Contributions (Sandwell MBC)

Tracie Ankrett, Communications Officer John Ashcroft, Drainage Manager Mathew Darby, Senior Countryside Ranger Stephen Handley, Head of Highways and Environment Steve Insley, Insurance Services Manager Kaleigh Lowe, Planning Assistant Jo Miskin, Community Liaison Officer Chris Moore, Countryside Manager John Stokes, Senior Countryside Officer Nigel Underwood, Assistant Engineer

Contributions (Partner Agencies)

Will Groves, Environment Agency Patrick Saunders, Sandwell PCT Ralph Smith, Sandwell PCT

22 Appendix 2: Significant Weather

The difference between weather and climate is a measure of time. Weather is what the conditions of the atmosphere are over a short period of time, e.g. one day or a week. Whilst climate is how the atmosphere changes over a relatively long period of time e.g. 30 years. Climate is the description of the long-term pattern of weather in a particular area, essentially, the average pattern of weather for that area.

Initially, there is a need to set out a definition of both severe and extreme weather events. It is important that there is consistency both locally and nationally to enable an overall picture to be developed. It is fair to say that some definitions of significant weather distinguish between severe and extreme weather events. The UK Met Office has defined an extreme weather event as a rare incident, where the weather encountered lies beyond the normal intensity expected within that locality whilst severe weather is defined as an event that can often occur, which can be destructive and lies only slightly beyond the normal intensity expected for a particular local area.

The IPCC has stated that an extreme event can be defined by maximum and minimum thresholds, magnitude, rarity and impacts and losses and therefore, it is difficult to place an exact definition to an extreme event. Also what is extreme in one place may be considered normal in another. An extreme event occurs when individual local weather parameters exceed critical levels on a continuous scale. A severe event has been defined by the IPCC as weather that is associated with a specific climatic phenomenon, often requiring a critical combination of weather parameters.

It is important to acknowledge in this report that the weather event by itself is not always responsible for the level of impact encountered. Also, not all significant weather events result in a damaging outcome, for example, an event may have occurred in rural areas where no-one lives. Alongside this, in urban areas the location and the time of day can play a significant role in understanding why impacts suffered were so severe. What may be classified as significant in one area may not be classified the same in another. Ground conditions and prevailing weather conditions can also have a major influence on impact levels. This is especially true of flooding events, both fluvial and pluvial.

Finally, it is important to highlight the fact that multiple weather conditions can occur within a single event resulting in a variety of different impacts, each contributing significantly to the overall impact of the incident. For example, heavy rain and flooding might be accompanied by gale force winds, high humidity and lightning.

23 Appendix 3: Sandwell Valley Country Park Expenditure

Expenditure linked to climate change to date. Tree Survey, software and tablet PC - 2009 £13,000 New outflow at Swan Pool - 2009 £40,000 New drain - 2008 £ 5,800

Additional Costs incurred to hold Events in Inclement Weather

1. Marquees If marquees are cancelled within 14 days of the event then the full cost of hire is payable. (2009 £17k). If more than 14 days notice of cancellation is given then 50% of the cost of hire is payable. If the event is switched between venues (2007 – Barnford Park), when we took some but not all of the marquees ordered we had to pay full cost of those used and 50% of the cost of the cancelled ones.

2. Gridmat/Artificial Roadway In 2004 the Showground was badly affected by rain and over half a kilometre of artificial roadway was hired in at a cost of £8k.

3. Carpeting In 2008 the Showground was again badly affected by rain, and the marquees that did not have Gridmat floors installed were kitted out with carpet left over from a previous event held in marquees; this cost came to £2.5k.

4. Arena Acts Once the act is ordered the full cost is due, even if they do not turn up on site, with the exception of travelling costs. This was applicable in 2007, when the venue was changed to Barnford Park and cost £17k.

5. Sand/Hay Contingency is to stockpile sand on the Showground in the event of wet weather, cost of approximately £1k. Hay is rarely used as in proves difficult to get up after the event and has a detrimental impact upon the when trodden into the ground.

6. Reinstatement In exceptional years the labour and materials cost of reinstating the damage inflicted on the Showground can be as much as £10k.

7. Publicity to change Venues In the weeks leading up to an event a high degree of publicity is generated through posters, newspaper advertisements, radio and press publicity, and other random sources (bus advertising, WBA etc.) To counter this at short notice needs an intense, concentrated campaign across all media forms to get the new message across. Again, 2007 cost in the region of £3k.

24 8. Refunds to Concessionaires

If we cancel an event, or move to a venue which cannot accommodate the full number of concessionaires then we have to refund to anyone unable to attend. In 2007 this cost a fraction under £5k.

9. Additional towing vehicles to get stranded vehicles off-site

This is applicable in particular to the Historic Vehicle Show, where the larger lorries and buses can prove problematical. Hire of a JCB + driver for a day is approximately £800.

25