1d /, _" L

FEWS Report APRIL 1989

Field Reports

BURKINA, CHAD, , MAURITANIA, NIGER, SUDAN

FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEM

Produced by the Office ofTechnical Resources - Bureau - USAID FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEM

The Famine Early Warning System (FEWS) is an Agency-wide effort coordinated by the Africa Bureau of the U.S. Agency for International Development (AID). Its mission is to assemble, and report analyze on the complex conditions which may lead to famine in any one of the following drought-prone countries in Africa:

" Burkina * Chad * Ethiopia * Mall " Mauritania * Niger * Sudan

FEWS reflects the Africa Bureau's comnmitment to providing reliable and timely information to decision-makers within the Agency, and among the broader donor community, so that they can take apprepriale actions to avert a famine.

This report is a compilation of monthly reports from the FEWS Field Represeatatives resident in each of FEWS countries, with the exception of Ethiopia. The work of the FEWS Field Representatives is coordinated by Tulane University's School of Public Health and Tropical Medicine. Their monthly reports are compiled for USAID's Africa Bureau by Price, Williams & Associates, Inc.

NOTE: This publication is a working document and should not be construed as an official pronouncement of the U. S.Agency for International Development. Field Reports

BURKINA, CHAD, ETHIOPIA, MALI MAURITANIA, NIGER, SUDAN

April 1989

Contents

Regional Summary 3 Burkina 5 Chad 7 Ethiopia 9 Mali 11 Mauritania 15 Niger 19 Sudan 21

List of Figures

Map 1 Summary Map 2 Table 1 Chadian Populations Requiring Food Aid In April 7 Table 2 SAP Recommendations of Food Distribution in Mall 12 Table 3 Mauritania Gross National Agricultural Production 15 Table 4 Vulnerable Populations in Mauritania 17 Table 5 Niger's 1988-89 Crop Production Deficit Villages 20 Table 6 Sudan %of Mechanized Area Harvested at mid-April 21

PEWS Report 3 Page I Summary

MAURITANIA: - Harvest estimate decreased.| meets 42H of needsin

local. lorgeiy chron;: problems shortfalls verified. assessments

continue

names IOsest TO9 TUCON II',"~~ food deficit

.... l" /S NIGER Fo-hr eaareaCHs d n o :Soex r 21 l MechnMized Harelghe. eeorDjboai LocustVuneabiAra - II f o n go ak - Nabea. food stcsdcin a~ ...... :::::::,thrSoli

BURKINA: Cerel prices in -MALI:Production estimate up north increasing at normal/

by 270,000 MT rte SOTE Heavy Apirn - SAP names 11 or-risk L~ogone & Char i arrondissements ri.ver floods. lte£ summer 'B8--j%.j

SUDAN:

Vulnerable Area 0l Town _ reachesNotiono; southfood stocks decline AnorthernHoreFghe, Wello,Somalia Djibouti. 17 igh hte to 200.000 MT Hihlghe -raeet-Sudan to export 2.1 million MT

of sorghum Cn0 100 200 400 600 Miles 0 26000 600Kilomet ers :3 FEWS/PWA, April 1989 to*, FEWS FIELD REPORTS

Regional Summary

The return of "normal" rains in the Sahel during 1988 produced record agricultural harvests and excellent pastures for 1989. In general, food security in all seven countries monitored by PEWS is better than it has been for many years. In the few places where severe food shortage and near famine conditions exist (southern Sudan and, to a lesser degree, northern Ethiopia), the predominant cause is armed conflict. Significant donor responses to these areas are underway and will ameliorate, but not resolve, very poor conditions. Elsewhere, close monitoring of available data (cereal and livestock prices, refined harvest estiraates, stock inventories, food distribution reports, etc.) continues to indicate a relatively abundant food supply. The regional threat of Desert Locusts remains, with residual populations being reported all across the Sahel and fight rains being reported in potential Saharan breeding areas.

April Indicators

" In Burkina, the normal seasonal increase in rice prices in Oudalan Province is occurring. There is question whether the government's cereals warehouse will be restocked in that area before the rains come in May or June, and whether it can then play a role in holding down prices. " In Chad,production shortfalls in the southern (Sudanian) zone are becoming apparent. Approximately 101,000 people will require emergency food assistance as early as April. Cereal prices in the more arid Sahelian zone continue stable and lower than last year. " In Ethiopia,ht-avy rains drenched the eastern portions of Wello and Harerghe and caused flooding and other damage in Djibouti and northern Somalia. The meningitis epidemic currently expanding towards the northern regions is now judged to be the largest outbreak in recent world history. " In Mali, the 1988 cereals harvest estimate has been increased to 2,700,000 MT, or 271,000 MT higfer than previously indicated. A SAP re-evaluation of arrondissement-level food shortages has placed 11 arrondissements, with a population of approximately 123,000, in the at-risk category. " In Mauritania,the 1988 record-breaking harvest estimate has been reduced 24,000 MT to reflect a poorer recessional harvest. Mauritania's food deficit, without carryover stock adjustments, is approximately 17,805 MT. " In Niger, grain prices remain stable and low. Desert Locust activity has calmed. " In Sudan, the harvest of mechanized sorghum fields has progressed greatly. Nevertheless, low stock levels in government hands, and the planned export of over 2.1 million MT of sorghum combine to maintain a food insecurity. Little emergency food assistance has been able to be provided to the south during the April "month of tranquility".

FEWS Report 3 Regional Summary Page 3 BURKINA

Food Security Situation Stable

Summary The food supply situation remains generally adequate throughout most of Burkina. There is no indication that there will either be areas of famine or severe shortages in the country.

Food Prices The Syst~me d'Alerte Pr~coce for Burkina (SAP) reports a rise in the price ofrice in the northern pi ovinces. This is a normal occurrence for this time of year. Grain producers have sold all the grain they plan to sell. As a consequence of their withdrawal from the market, mer,'hants have stepped in and prices have risen. This is particularly the case in Oudalan Province, which suffered a 38 percent cereal production deficit in 1988. A production deficit is normal in this area. The sale of livestock, trade, craft activities, gold mining, and remittances help the population to make up the difference. Household cereal stocks in Oudalan are expected to be exhausted in July. Given the expected continued rise in market prices, the population will try to purchase enough cereals from the national cereals office (OFNACER) to last until the 1989 harvest. OFNACER/Oudalan is, however, late in its restocking efforts. It is presently cleaning its warehouses, and there is some concern that these warehouses may not be adequately restocked before the rainy season. Road conditions may then worsen and make resupply operations difficult. If OFNACER stocks are not available for sale, people will be forced back to the market to purchase grain at the higher market prices.

FEWS Reporv 3 Burkina Page 5 CHAD

Local Food Shortages Surfacing in South

Summary The food supply situation has changed since the optimistic food needs assessment in November. There are no serious problems in Chad's Sahelian zone (the central tier of eight prefectures), but productioh shortfalls are becoming apparent in localized areas of the Sudanian zone (Chad's five southern-most prefectures). Cereal prices in these areas are unseasonably high, and food aid has been recommended.

Populations M-Risk Agricultural production in the Chari and Logone River flood plains (Mayo-Kebbi and Tandjil6 prefectures) was severely compromised during the 1988/89 cropping cycle due to excessive rains and resultant flooding of fields. Although disaggregated production figures are difficult to obtain, figures for Gounou Canton (Gounou-Gaya Sub-prefecture, Mayo-Kebbi Prefecture) over the last three years show that 1988/89 cereals production for the canton is down 40 percent from the 1987/88 harvest. Current production will cover only 42 percent of needs. It is likely that other cantons in the flood plains are experiencing production shortfalls of similar magnitude. In some of these areas, roots are being consumed much earlier than usual for the post harvest period, reserves are etremely low, families are leaving their villages, mzrkets are disappearing, and cereal prices are unseasonably high. No signs of malnutrition have been observed, but a food supply assessment team that visited the area during the last week of March bas recommended a one-month food ration for approximately 100,000 people in the cantons at-risk (see Table 1). Teams have also been sent to Logone Occidental, Logone Oriental, Moyen-Chari, and Salamat prefectures to assess the food supply situation before the onset of the rains. Results of these missions are not yet known.

Table 1: Chad Populations Requiring Food Aid in April

Prefecture Sub-prefecture Population Mayo-Kebbi Bongor Rural, 1 canton 18,000 Mayo-Kebbi Gounou-Gaya, 4 cantons 37,600 Mayo-Kebbi Pala, 4 cantons 21,300 Mayo-Kebbi Fianga, 1 canton 16,000 Tandjil6 Kelo, 1canton 2,000 Tandjil.6 La, 1 canton 7,000 Total 101,909

FEWS Report 3 Chad Page 7 Agricultural Production Most recent analyses of harvest data from the Government of Chad crop production survey indicate much as a 50 percent a. decrease in cereals production for the Sudanian zone, which was October at approximately estimated in 500,000 metric tons (MT). While final estimates for tha Sahelian not yet been released, zone have the outlook for Chad as a whole remains optimistic even at a conservative estimate (625,000 MT). Production shortfalls in the Sudanian zone inarea are due to a substantial reduction harvested over area planted. The greatest reductions were in the Mayo-Kebbi, and Tandjild prefectures, Moyen-Chari, whzre excessive rains resulted inflooded and abandoned fields.

Population Movements Most of the population movements noted during the past months have consisted transhumant of normal movement and seasonal migration. In addition, the European Community-funded Syst~me d'Alerte Pr6coce for Chad (SAP) reports that 2,000 refugees from Sudan repatriated to the eastern prefectures in February.

Cereals Prices Prices in the Sahelian zone are still considerably lower than the same period last year. They are unseasonably high inthe Sudanian zone however, reflecting production shortfalls as a result of flooded fields in the river plain areas. InN'Djam6na, cereals prices are falling due to the increased presence of recessional sorghum (berbdrd) on the market.

Page 8 Chad FEWS Report 3 ETHIOPIA

Heavy Rains in East

Summary April rainfall has improved the prospects for the belg crop in highland areas after an early-season dry spell. Nevertheless, only an average crop is expected. Heavy rains covering east and central Ethiopia, and Djibouti and northern Somalia have relieved water problems for refugees and crops, and damaged emergency food stocks in Asseb. The short-term situation for Somali and Sudanese refugees remains stable. Longer-term problems of childhood malnutrition and inadequate food supply and food storage facilities remain in question. The planned cross-border operation to deliver food into Sudan has bogged down. Little, if any food has been moved in Sudan from Ethiopia.

Rains The U.S. Joint Agricultural Weather Facility (JAWF) reports that heavy rains occurred at the end of the first week of April in Djibouti, northern Somalia, and parts of Harerghe and Weno. These rains fell over the ports of Asseb and Djibouti, and caused considerable trouble with transport getting to Somali refugee camps in Harerghe. In Djibouti, total estimated rainfall between April 5-12 was 229 mm -- Djibouti's mean annual rainfall is approximately 135 mm. Some flooding and damage occurred. Emergency food stocks stored in Asseb port were also damaged by moisture. Assessment of the damage is underway. Food stocks in Djibouti port were not harmed. Heavy rains again fell in largely the same areas during the week of April 19-25. Rainfall totals for the last six weeks in Dire Dawa and Jijiga, near the refugee camps, show that both have received more rain during this period than they normally do for the entire belg season.

For the belg crop areas of Welio, Shewa, Arsi, and Bale, April rainfall was average to above average in amount. To some degree, this moisture helps to attenuate the impact of the dry spell that occurred at the time of planting. It is, nevertheless, unlikely that the 1989 belg crop will be any larger than an average (300,000 to 400,000 MT) harvest. If it reaches this level, it will, however, provide roughly the amount of food that emergency food stock planners have built into their food balance equations.

Refugees Sudanese - The United Nations High Commission on Refugees (UNHCR) reports that in March, new Sudanese arrivals to refugee camps came in higher numbers than in February. In general, their nutritional condition was not bad. Most were from the area around Bor in Upper Nile. In April, the rate of new arrivals slowed. Many were noted to be women and childrea of men already in the camps. This fact is further confirmation of the fundamental disintegration of the situation in Southern Sudan, and presages a likely long-term stay of refugees in Ethiopia. Cereal needs tur the rest of the calendar year, as of March 31, were reported to total 63,000 MT. Of this quantity, cereal neds not covered by

FEWS Report 3 Ethiopia Page 9 current stocks or donor pledges total 15,500 MT. Inadequate storage is still a problem for the food stocks which have been made available.

Somali - Over-distribution of food stocks continued to bc a problem at Hartisheik camp, slowing the expected build up of stocks. Approximately 460,000 rations were distributed on April 3, while 200,000 had been planned. The cause of this continuing problem is not clear. The actual number of refugees may be larger than reported and distributions may reflect this. There may, nevertheless, be a problem of poorly managed family registration and multiple distributions per family. At the same time that larger than planned distributions of food are occurring, the results of the recent Save the Children/United Kingdom (SCFIUK) child malnutrition survey in camps are causing serious concern. The prevalence of moderate to severe malnutrition (less than 80 percent weight for height) rose from 16.9 to 26.3 % from an earlier survey.

The planned transfer of refugees from the Harshin to Hartisheik camps did not begin as planned on April 12 due to resistance from refugees. Negotiations between authorities and refugee leaders are underway. Water deliveries to Hartisheik and Harshin were averaging 500,000 liters/day early in April, below the target of 1.2 million liters per day. Part of the problem in April was, ironically, the heavy rains falling in the area. On April 15, UNHCR and CARE reported that the target figure of water delivery was reached for Harshin and Hartisheik. Bad road conditions around the Aware camps were also interrupting food deliveries. Unmet cereal needs for the rest of 1989 totalled 10,300 MT at end of March. Inadequate food storage facilities are also a problem in this area.

Health The meningitis outbreak that began in Gamo Gofa, northern Sidamo, and southern Shewa is now a severe problem in Gojjam and Weo. An expert from the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) in Atlanta indicates that the disease may yet peak as it spreads into Harerghe, Tigray and Eritrea with similar intensity. While the incidence of the disease is usually underreported because of its quick onset and evolution, there are now more than 28,000 cases and 1,000 deaths reported from medical facilities. CDC reports that this outbreak isthe largest in recent world history.

Cross-border Emergency Assistance A major effort to move emergency food into southern Sudan from Keffa and Gambela was planned for April. The plan has fared no better than most of the other efforts mounted from other countries. As of late April, little, if any food had been made available from Ethiopian soil.

Page 10 Ethiopia PEWS Report 3 MALI

1988 Cereal Production Estimates Increase

Summary Adequate food supplies in the northern and abundant supplies in the surplus regions continue to characterize the food security situation. During March, the Syst~me d'Alerte Prdcoce for Mali (SAP) re-evaluated the arrondissements it had classified as under surveillance. Out of 37 arrondissements SAP listed at harvest time as potentially needing food distributions before the 1989-90 harvest, only four have been reclassified as at-risk and in need of free food distiributions beginning in May or June. This brings the total number of arrondissements at risk in Mali to 11, with an estimated total population at risk of 123,650 people.

Agriculture The National Statistics Office (DNSI) and the National Agriculture Office (DNA) are putting together the final estimate of 1988-89 cereal production. Figures at the cercle level will be available next month. The estimate of gross cereal production at the national level is 2,700,000 MT. This estimat. is 271,700 MT higher than the preliminary estimate of 2,428,299 MT that was made in November. Malian farmers are beginning to prepare their fields for the upcoming rainfed agricultural season. These activities are beginning earlier than they did last year, a sign that farmers are optimistic about this year's prospects.

Grasshopper and locust activity has been noted during March and April, but the situation remains relatively calm. The National Crop Protection Service (CPS) reported several swarms of immature locusts in Didma Cercle ( Region) at the end of March, but this information was limited and provided nothing specific about the size of the swarms nor the densities. Nomads in also reported larval bands of locusts. The CPS sent out a team to evaluate the situation. The CPS is especially on the alert because rains in the Adrar des Iforhas during March have caused a greening of vegetation in the wadis of Tessalit and Starlit. The green-up and the reports of larval bands in the area could signal the beginning of e:,pected locust attacks.

Market Prices and Supply AD markets are adequately supplied. Millet prices reported by the SAP are substantially lower than at the same time last year reflecting the favorable food outlook for the majority of the population. Prices in Kayes, S6gou, and Tombouctou regions are generally on the rise, while in Koulikoro and Gao they have fallen. In , prices fell in Mopti city, rose in Djenn6 and remained stable in the other markets of the region. The range of millet prices in the zones covered by the SAP varies from 33 CFA

FEWS Report 3 Mali Page 11 Francs per kilogram (FCFA/kg) in Di6ma () to 85 FCFA/kg in Tombouctou and Gourma-Rharous, both in .

Reports from the Syst~me d'Information sur le March6 (SIM) show that producer prices are generally stable, but there has been a steady fall in the price of millet in Badinko and Kita and rise in the price millet in Douguolo. Sorghum of prices in Kita have continued to fall from a high of 69 FCFA/kg in December to a low of 43 FCFA/kg in April. The range of prices for millet and sorghum in SIM markets varies between 32 FCFA/kg in Sirakorola and 57 FCFA/kg in Kadiola. The SIM reports consumer price rises between March and April for millet and sorghum in Koulikoro, Gao, and Tombouctou. Consumer prices in other markets have remained relatively stable except in Kayes where prices have continued their gradual fall for both millet and sorghum.

Populations At-Risk In March, the SAP reclassified the arrondissements that it had put under surveillance in October, either shifting them to the at-risk list or reclassifying them as not at-risk of experiencing a degradation in their food security situation before the 1989 harvest. (), Touroungoumb6 (), , and Raz El-Ma (Goutdam Cercle) have now been classified at-risk, bringing to a total of 11 the number of arrondissements SAP estimates are unable to meet needs before the next their food harvest. Below is a complete list of the arrondissements at-risk along recommended quantities with the of grain to be distributed (see Summary Map for general locations).

Table 2: SAP Recommendations of Food Distributions in Mali Cercle Arrondissement Population Period Quabtity Kayes Diamou 12,802 June-July Nioro 179 Touroungoumb6 8,000 June-July 112 Gargando 5,842 June-August 123 Raz El-Ma 7,062 June-August Gao 148 N'Tillit 9,466 June-August 199 Ansongo Talataye 14,186 June-August Bourem 298 Almoustarat 15,146 May-August 424 Bamba 18,104 May-August 507 T6mdra 9,322 May-August Mdnaka 261 In6kar 10,725 June-August 225 Tidarmdnd 7,995 June-August Displaced 168 S6gou 5,000 May-August 140 Total 123,650 2,784 Source: SAP Bulletin Note: All quantities in metric tons. Monthly quantities to be distributed are calculated to cover 50 percent of the theoretical needs of the total population of the arrondissement at 17 kg/person/month.

At the Ministerial level, no decisions have yet been made to authorize the distributions recommended by the SAP, but this matter was discussed at the monthly meeting in April. A representative of the Ministry of Territorial Affairs (MATDA) promised that a decision would be forthcoming.

Page 12 Mali FEWS Report 3 Health and Nutrition In March, the SAP conducted amedical/nutritional/socio-economic survey in the arrondissement of N'Gouma, one of the arrondissements it had put under surveillance. The medicalnutridonal component of the.survey revealed a rate of prevalence of malnutrition for children of 7.8 percent (plus or minus 2.1 percent), an acceptable level. The socio-economic component of the survey revealed that for the 210 households questioned, over 80 percent offamilies' basic food stuffs being consumed time of the survey at the came from their own fields. Five percent came from foraged foods, 10 percent from the market and approximately five percent from charitable sources. The SAP conducted the identical survey in the arrondissement of N'Gouna in February 1988, and at that time only 10 percent of the basic food stuffs being consumed by families came from their own harvest. Based on the results of the March survey, the SAP reclassified the arrondissement of N'Gouma as not at risk of experiencing a degradation in the food security situation before the 1989 harvest.

FEWS Report 3 Mali Page 13 MAURITANIA

Cereal Deficit Smaller than Usual

Summary The Bureau of Agricultural Statistics (SSA) revised downward the national net agricultural production estimate from 158,957 metric tons (MT) to 134,914 MT.This decrease is largely due to a decline in the levels of river recessional agriculture predicted for the 1988-89 season. Nonetheless, this year's estimate represents one of the best harvests in recent years and the highest recorded by the SSA. Last month, the donors predicted that the national food needs deficit would amount to only 6,000 MT, given the announced food aid pledges, carry-over stocks and planned private and public imports. However, given these new production estimates, Mauritania will likely be short at least 17,805 MT. The projected deficit would be larger should CSA carry-over stocks be taken into consideration. Donors and the CSA are currently negotiating on the size and nature of carry-over and security stocks. End-of-year stock proposals range from 15,000 to 35,000 MT. The Mauritania Council of Ministers announced new cereals a support policy which establishes a new governing body consisting of both the ministries and donors, and places emphasis on agricultural production and producer incentives. The Ministry of Rural Development (MRD) will be coordinating this body. Agricultural Production In early April, the SSA released their preliminary report for the third and final round for estimating the 1988/89 harvest. Currently, they estimate net agricultural production to be substantially lower than their January estimate of 158,957 MT. The new net estimate stands at 134,914 MT, which is still among the highest net production estimates recorded by the new agricultural statistics service (see Table 3), and represents 42.2 percent of Mauritania's food needs based on a population estimate of 1.926 million people.

Table 3: Mauritania Gross National Agricultural Production (MT) Cropping Strategy 1985/86 1986/87 1987/88 198.89 Rainfed 55,400 65,600 87,828 55,306 River Recessional 16,170 27,000 24,246 27,416 Lowland Recessional 10,780 16,900 1,737 37,599 Irrigated * 36,900 52,261 53,389 Total 82,350 146,300 166,072 173,710 Note: These are preliminary figures, a thl final report by the SSA for 1988/89 has not yet been published with regional breakdowns of production.

FEWS Report 3 Mauritania Page 15 The downward revision by the SSA is due primarily to a decrease in estimated river recessional agriculture. Previous predictions were based on hydrologic (river level) indicators from the Senegal Office of the Organization for Development of the Senegal River Valley (OMVS). The Senegal River this year peaked dramatically but receded rather quickly as much of the water was released water from the Manantali Dam, thus preventing an optimal flood duration. Furthermore, some farmers were discouraged from farming the recessional flood plains back in October as parts of the river basin were infested with locusts and grasshoppers.

The decline in rainfed agriculture was largely due to the attacks on crops by grasshoppers and locusts. It should also be noted that the yields were revised downward between 1988 and 1989 -- last year, yields for rainfed sorghum were estimated at 0.9 MT per hectar. (ha), while this year, the average rainfed soighum yield is 0.626 MT per ha. Even so, sorghum production was up this year by some 10,000 MT over 1987/5.

Grasshopper and Locust Control A field team (consisting of a Maghrebian mission, the Mauritanian Crop Protection Service (CPS), and the USAID entomologist) visiterI northern Mauritania during the month of March. The team reported an absence of vegetation and only scattered sightings of Desert Locusts in the north. Last year, northern Mauritania and the Western were breeding grounds for Desert Locusts. The CPS believes that the current situation in the north will help diminish locust swarms from the sizeable locust populations that were present in Mauritania last year. Desert Locusts are expected to return to Mauritania in June with the comirg of the rainy season and the shift of winds from the north to the south.

CSA Rice Baying Campaign The CSA is currently working on its report of the 1989 rice buying campaign. Early indications suggest that between 9,000 and 11,000 MT of unhusked rice have been bought this year. These estimates are lower than the 15,000 MT bought by the CSA in 1988. The decline was largely due to a lesser availability of financing, rather than to a lack of supply of rice on the market. The CSA informally indicate, 1,however, that purchases at the smaller centers in Kaedi and Boghe are down from last year's low levcls. One hypothesis is that much of this rice from the smaller producers is being commercialized in Senegal. Current national rice prices in Senegal are approximately the same as those in Mauritania, but producers prefer to market in Senegal in order to obtain hard currency in the form of CFA Francs and to avoid paying back credit to the Mauritanian rice parastatal, SONADER.

Food Security A technical committee of the National Committee for Early Warning and Food Security (CNARSA) in charge of the national food needs assessment met in March after the preliminary final estimates of the SSA were announced. The latest estimate projects a 52,805 MT deficit, which inciudes 35,000 MT of carry-over and security stocks at the end of 1989. It is clear that a 17,805 MT deficit exists before considering these stocks. Donors and the Government of the Islamic Republic of Mauritania (GIRM) will meet to discuss the levels of pipeline and carry-over stocks necessary for the end ofthe year. Currently, proposed stock levels range from 15,000 MT to the 35,000 MT put forward by the GIRM.

The 17,805 MT deficit takes into consideration planned private and public cereal imports in 1989, and levels of pledged donor stocks for 1989. Current announced donor pledges listed by the World Food Program total 52,705 MT. Of these pledges, 13,705 MT are for free distribution, while the remainder are for price s'.ipport sales.

Page 16 Mauritania FEWS Report 3 While the national food needs assessment does not take into account presently unplanned border trade, the borders are fluid between Mauritania and the neighboring countries. Not only is Mauritanian rice being marketed in Senegal, but independent sources also indicate that wheat flour imported from France and received in Nouakchott is crossing the border into northern Mali. French flour makes its way as far south as .

Cereal Prices The Food Security Commission (CSA) has listed prices for the beginning ofApril. The highest prices for local cereals are currently found in the Adrar markets of Atar and Chinguetti, and the town of Tanchekket (northern Hoih el Gharbi Region). Along the southern agricultural zone, prices are currently low throughout, with the highest southern price for taghalitsorghum recorded in Kankossa. In general, this year's prices in Hodh ech Chargui Region are lower than last year's drought.time prices. Cereal prices are similar in Brakna Region, with low prices recorded during this harvest period. The price of tag,halitsorghum is much higher this year in Kankossa than last year (30 Oughiya per kilogram in 1989 as compared to 20 in 1988), and iaghalitprices are also comparatively higher in Selibaby and in Adrar Region. During the month of March, prices of local cereals in Gorgol Region fell to levels similar to last year.

Nutrition UNICEF and the Ministry of Health unofficially report malnutrition to be low in the Department of Ouad Naga (Trarza Region). Severe malnutrition is reported to be approximately three percent at the department level, with a moderate malnutrition rate of 17 percent.

Vulnerable Populations In March, 264,000 people were listed as being vulnerable to food shortage in Mauritania in 1989. Two changes have been made in the estimate this month (see Table 4).

Table 4: Vulnerable Populations in Mauritania

Area Reason for Vulnerability Estimated Population Touareg Population Chronic 1,500 Oasis Areas Locusts/Grasshoppers 30,240 Rainfed Agriculture Locust/Grasshoppers 135,000 Areas of Assaba and Hodh el Gharbi Regions September Flooding n/a Doubel Doubaye (Gorgol) Identified food-short by University of Arizona 1,000 Area West of Boghe High malnutrition in 1988 n/a (30,000) Totals 196,240 Note: These are preliminary and partial estimates of the actual at-risk population in Mauritania. FEWS collects secondary information from Mauritanian ministries, non-governmental organizations, and international aid agencies.

First, the estimate of the vulnerable oasis population has been decreased to 30,240 people. This is based on a 1986 report that only 24 percent of oasis populations obtain the largest part of their revenue from the oases themselves. The report authors maintain that many of the laborers in the active labor

FEWS Report 3 Mauritania Page 17 force work in the larger towns and cities in the oasis areas. Many times, this income represents the largest contribution to annual income. A second reason to decrease the estimated vulnerable oasis populations is that low sorghum prices in Mcaijeria seem to point to a relatively good harvest at the oases of southern Tagant, a region for which few other indicators are available. Second, an additional vulnerable population must be noted in the area to the west of Boghe. This population was identified by UNICEF last year as experiencing high levels of malnutrition in children, which FEWS reported at the time. UNICEF plans to develop a nutritional surveillance for this area of Brakna Region, in addition to their planned monitoring in Adrar, Tagant and Inchiri regions. FEWS does not currently have an accurate estimate for the population of this area.

Page 18 Mauritania PEWS Report 3 NIGER

Favorable Food Security

Summary The food secu.'ity situation in Niger remains favorable. Desert Locust activity in the north has calmed. The Government of Niger Ministry of Agriculture has published its list ofvillages in which there is a significant shortfall in cereals. Most of these are chronically food-short areas.

Cereal Markets Millet prices published by the government grain marketing board (OPVN) for the last week of March 1989 indicate a slight, probably nonnal, rise nationwide (4%) during the month. Prices are nearly identical to March prices of 1986 and 1987, both considered a,%aage to good crop years. It is roughly 70% below the level in March 1985, during the food crisis. In a separate data series published by the Ministry of Agriculture, daily millet, sorghum, corn and rice p rices remained generally stable during March in the capital city of Niamey. Cowpea prices decreased slightly.

Desert Locusts The locust situation in Niger is currently calm and should remain so at least until the first rains in late May or early June. If rainy season humidity promotes egg hatching, field teams are prepared to survey the threatened areas in the Air mountains. In general, the current situation appears less alarming than anticipated several months ago. Rather than passing from Chad and Sudan through Niger at the end of the 1988 iainy svson, Desert Locusts swept into Senegal, Mauritania, Cape Verde and the Atlantic Ocean, leaving Niger only lightly infested.

Government Reserve Stocks The Government of Niger reported cereal reserve was roughly 30,000 metric tons (MT) at the end of March. This is slightly up from the February figure due to a change in accounting methods. The grain marketing board, OPVN, has purchased locally 33,000 MT of cereal, still shy of the 52,000 MT procurement goal. Though the 33,000 MT has not yet been officially added to the figures, there are effectively 63,000 MT of reserve stock. It is unclear where there will be adequate financing to purchase the remaining 19,000 MT.

Deficit Villages The Ministry ofAgriculture produces lists of villages deficit in cereals (see Table 5). The survey method is very irregular and the results must be interpreted in this light. For the most part,these deficits appear in pastoral zones that are typically food deficit areas.

FEWS Report 3 Niger Page 19 Table 5: Niger's 1988-89 Crop Production Deficit Villages Arrondissement %Deficit Food Need Number of Population (MT) Villages Agadez City 100 NA 3 Arlit 4,158 69 NA 27 24,926 Bilma 100 NA 12 5,865 Tchirozerine 69 NA 60 73,695 Total Agadez Dept. NA 102 108,644 Diffa 95 3,014 67 15,863 Diffa City 80 1,104 NA NA Main6 Soroa 72 5,896 NA N'guigmi 40,945 60 1,267 22 8,446 Tribes 100 3,100 NA 15,941 Total Diffa Dept. 14,469 NA NA Boboye 36 NA 70 Dosso NA 50 NA 35 17,681 Dogondoutchi 50 NA 31 NA Gaya 50 NA 35 NA Total Dosso Dept. NA 171 NA Source: DEPSA, Minislere de l'Agriculture et I'Environnement Tessaoua NA NA 10 NA Magaria 30 NA 23 Tanout 13,739 60 NA 23 NA

Source: FEWS/USAID October tour of selected arrondissements

Page 20 Niger FEWS Repon 3 SUDAN

Stock Position Maintains Food Insecurity

Summary Almost all of this year's production ofsorghum in the mechanized rainfed area has been harvested. However, problems remain in the movement and storage of surplus grains. Estimates of the total amount of sorghum that will be harvested by the end of May range from 3.4 to 5.0 miliion MT. Any value within this range will be well above the estimated total domestic consumption of 2.8 million MT. Still, 2.1 million MT of the 1988/89 harvest are destined for export. National food stocks have declined to about 200,000 MT. As reported in the March FEWS field report, reduced food stocks may jeopardize medium to long-term food security, and may make procurement of adequate food supplies for the southern Sudan relief effort difficult. Only small amounts of food have reached affected populations in the south.

Agricultural Production The Ministry of Agriculture (MOA) still believes that total production of sorghum for the 1988/89 season is some six million MT, which is more than three times 1987/88 production. Although it is believed that a full harvest will not be achieved, the Mechanized Farming Corporation (MFC) has reported the following information:

Table 6: Sudan, %of Mechanized Area Harvested at mid-April

Site Percent Gedaref 75 Damazine 100 Renk 80 Kosti 78

These figures demonstrate that most of the harvest is already completed in the mechanized rainfed areas. In March, the MOA reported that only a total of 35 percent had been harvested. As the mechanized sector prLvdes some 70 percent of Sudan's sorghnim production, these high harvest figures are very promising. Still, the MFC reports that problems remain with the resourc,.s that are necessary to store and transport the grain including sacks, fuel for machinery, and commercial t'ucks. Reports from the Agricultural Planning Unit (APU) and the Sudanese Red Crescent (SRC) in Darfur conclude that residents there have enjoyed exceptional crops and anticipate ample surplus for storage.

FEWS Rc'pon 3 Sudan Page 21 National Food Stocks The amount of sorghum that the Agricultural Bank of Sudan (ABS) is reported to have dropped to about 200,000 MT. This time last year, Sudan's national food stocks were three times greater, or about 600,000 MT. In any even , all ABS stocks have been committed to export so none of it will be available for domestic consumption. ABS still has no plans to purchase sorghum this year.

Pests The Plant Protection Department (PPD) has reported that the locust situation is calm in Sudan and should remain that way for the foreseeable future. Although the PPD has reported that it expects some two million hectares to become infested by Desert Locusts in the summer months, other experts fel this is a grossly exaggerated estimate. In addition, the PPD has reported swarms of Tree Locusts, but it is believed that they will have little impact, if any, on food crops.

Prices Prices have remained stable for the past month. With the coming of the rainy se;ason, prices should normally begin to increase slowly but steadily.

Southern Sudan According to the Relief and Rehabilitation Commission (RRC), only small amounts of food have actually been transported overland to points in Southern Sudan. The RRC reports that only 26 percent, 32 percent, and 12 percent of relief needs in Equatoria, Upper Nile, and Balhr el Ghazal, respectively, have been delivered since January. Problems remain with the procurement and transportation of food grains for the relief operation.

Page 22 Sudan PEWS Report 3 Key Terms

At Risk - FEWS Reports employ the term "at risk" to describe those populations or areas either currently or in the near future expected to be lacking sufficient food, or resources to acquire sufficient food, to avert a nutritional crisis (i.e., a progressive deterioration in their health or nutritional condition below the status quo), and who, as a result, require specific intervention to avoid a life-threatening situation.

Wiere possible, food needs estimates are included in the FEWS reports. It is important to understand, however, that no direct relation exists between numbers of persons at risk and the quantity of food assistance needed. This is because famines are the culmination of slow-onset disaster processes which can be complex in the extreme. The food needs of individual populations at risk depend upon when in the disaster process identification is made and the extent of its cumulative impact on the individuals concerned. Further, the amount of food assistance required, whether from internal or external sources, depends upon a host of considerations. Thus the food needs estimates presented periodically in FEWS reports shouldnot be interpreted to mean food aid needs, e.g., as under PLA80 or other donor programs.

ITCZ - The Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) is where the high pressure system originating in equatorial regions of the Atlantic (the St. Helena's High) collides with the Azores High descending from the north. The ITCZ tends to move northward during the spring and summer in response to normal global weather patterns. The position of the ITCZ normally deimes the northern limits of possible precipitation in the Sahel; rainfall generally occurs 100 to 300 kilometers south of the rrcz.

NDVI - Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) images are created at the laboratory of the National Aeronautic and Space Administration (NASA) Global Inventory Modeling and Monitoring System (GIMMS). These images are derived from Global Area Coverage (GAC) imagery (of approximately 4 km resolution) received from the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) sensors on board the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Polar Orbiting series of satellites. The polar orbiter satellites remotely sense the entire Earth and its atmosphere once each day and once each night, collecting data in 5 spectral bands. Bands 1 and 2 sense reflected red and infra-red wavelengths respectively, and the remaining 3 bands sense emitted radiation in 3 different spectral bands. The NDVI images are created by calculating

(infrared - red) / (infrared + red)

for each pixel from the daytime satellite passes. Since chlorophyll reflects more in the infrared band than in the red band, higher NDVI values indicate the presence of more chlorophyll and, by inference, more live vegetation. A composite of daily NDVI images is created for each 10-day period, using the highest NDVI value for each pixel during that period. This technique minimizes the effects of clouds and other forms of atmospheric interference that tend to reduce NDVI values. NDVI is often referred to as a measure of "greenness" or "vegetative vigor." The NDVI images are used to monitor the response of vegetation to weather conditions.