1d /, _" L FEWS Report APRIL 1989 Field Reports BURKINA, CHAD, MALI, MAURITANIA, NIGER, SUDAN FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEM Produced by the Office ofTechnical Resources - Africa Bureau - USAID FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEM The Famine Early Warning System (FEWS) is an Agency-wide effort coordinated by the Africa Bureau of the U.S. Agency for International Development (AID). Its mission is to assemble, and report analyze on the complex conditions which may lead to famine in any one of the following drought-prone countries in Africa: " Burkina * Chad * Ethiopia * Mall " Mauritania * Niger * Sudan FEWS reflects the Africa Bureau's comnmitment to providing reliable and timely information to decision-makers within the Agency, and among the broader donor community, so that they can take apprepriale actions to avert a famine. This report is a compilation of monthly reports from the FEWS Field Represeatatives resident in each of FEWS countries, with the exception of Ethiopia. The work of the FEWS Field Representatives is coordinated by Tulane University's School of Public Health and Tropical Medicine. Their monthly reports are compiled for USAID's Africa Bureau by Price, Williams & Associates, Inc. NOTE: This publication is a working document and should not be construed as an official pronouncement of the U. S.Agency for International Development. Field Reports BURKINA, CHAD, ETHIOPIA, MALI MAURITANIA, NIGER, SUDAN April 1989 Contents Regional Summary 3 Burkina 5 Chad 7 Ethiopia 9 Mali 11 Mauritania 15 Niger 19 Sudan 21 List of Figures Map 1 Summary Map 2 Table 1 Chadian Populations Requiring Food Aid In April 7 Table 2 SAP Recommendations of Food Distribution in Mall 12 Table 3 Mauritania Gross National Agricultural Production 15 Table 4 Vulnerable Populations in Mauritania 17 Table 5 Niger's 1988-89 Crop Production Deficit Villages 20 Table 6 Sudan %of Mechanized Area Harvested at mid-April 21 PEWS Report 3 Page I Summary MAURITANIA: - Harvest estimate decreased.| meets 42H of needsin local. lorgeiy chron;: problems shortfalls verified. assessments continue names IOsest TO9 TUCON II',"~~ food deficit .... l" /S NIGER Fo-hr eaareaCHs d n o :Soex r 21 l MechnMized Harelghe. eeorDjboai LocustVuneabiAra - II f o n go ak - Nabea. food stcsdcin a~ .......:::::::,thrSoli BURKINA: Cerel prices in -MALI:Production estimate up north increasing at normal/ by 270,000 MT rte SOTE Heavy Apirn - SAP names 11 or-risk L~ogone & Char i arrondissements ri.ver floods. lte£ summer 'B8--j%.j SUDAN: Vulnerable Area 0l Town _ reachesNotiono; southfood stocks decline AnorthernHoreFghe, Wello,Somalia Djibouti. 17 igh hte to 200.000 MT Hihlghe -raeet-Sudan to export 2.1 million MT of sorghum Cn0 100 200 400 600 Miles 0 26000 600Kilomet ers :3 FEWS/PWA, April 1989 to*, FEWS FIELD REPORTS Regional Summary The return of "normal" rains in the Sahel during 1988 produced record agricultural harvests and excellent pastures for 1989. In general, food security in all seven countries monitored by PEWS is better than it has been for many years. In the few places where severe food shortage and near famine conditions exist (southern Sudan and, to a lesser degree, northern Ethiopia), the predominant cause is armed conflict. Significant donor responses to these areas are underway and will ameliorate, but not resolve, very poor conditions. Elsewhere, close monitoring of available data (cereal and livestock prices, refined harvest estiraates, stock inventories, food distribution reports, etc.) continues to indicate a relatively abundant food supply. The regional threat of Desert Locusts remains, with residual populations being reported all across the Sahel and fight rains being reported in potential Saharan breeding areas. April Indicators " In Burkina, the normal seasonal increase in rice prices in Oudalan Province is occurring. There is question whether the government's cereals warehouse will be restocked in that area before the rains come in May or June, and whether it can then play a role in holding down prices. " In Chad,production shortfalls in the southern (Sudanian) zone are becoming apparent. Approximately 101,000 people will require emergency food assistance as early as April. Cereal prices in the more arid Sahelian zone continue stable and lower than last year. " In Ethiopia,ht-avy rains drenched the eastern portions of Wello and Harerghe and caused flooding and other damage in Djibouti and northern Somalia. The meningitis epidemic currently expanding towards the northern regions is now judged to be the largest outbreak in recent world history. " In Mali, the 1988 cereals harvest estimate has been increased to 2,700,000 MT, or 271,000 MT higfer than previously indicated. A SAP re-evaluation of arrondissement-level food shortages has placed 11 arrondissements, with a population of approximately 123,000, in the at-risk category. " In Mauritania,the 1988 record-breaking harvest estimate has been reduced 24,000 MT to reflect a poorer recessional harvest. Mauritania's food deficit, without carryover stock adjustments, is approximately 17,805 MT. " In Niger, grain prices remain stable and low. Desert Locust activity has calmed. " In Sudan, the harvest of mechanized sorghum fields has progressed greatly. Nevertheless, low stock levels in government hands, and the planned export of over 2.1 million MT of sorghum combine to maintain a food insecurity. Little emergency food assistance has been able to be provided to the south during the April "month of tranquility". FEWS Report 3 Regional Summary Page 3 BURKINA Food Security Situation Stable Summary The food supply situation remains generally adequate throughout most of Burkina. There is no indication that there will either be areas of famine or severe shortages in the country. Food Prices The Syst~me d'Alerte Pr~coce for Burkina (SAP) reports a rise in the price ofrice in the northern pi ovinces. This is a normal occurrence for this time of year. Grain producers have sold all the grain they plan to sell. As a consequence of their withdrawal from the market, mer,'hants have stepped in and prices have risen. This is particularly the case in Oudalan Province, which suffered a 38 percent cereal production deficit in 1988. A production deficit is normal in this area. The sale of livestock, trade, craft activities, gold mining, and remittances help the population to make up the difference. Household cereal stocks in Oudalan are expected to be exhausted in July. Given the expected continued rise in market prices, the population will try to purchase enough cereals from the national cereals office (OFNACER) to last until the 1989 harvest. OFNACER/Oudalan is, however, late in its restocking efforts. It is presently cleaning its warehouses, and there is some concern that these warehouses may not be adequately restocked before the rainy season. Road conditions may then worsen and make resupply operations difficult. If OFNACER stocks are not available for sale, people will be forced back to the market to purchase grain at the higher market prices. FEWS Reporv 3 Burkina Page 5 CHAD Local Food Shortages Surfacing in South Summary The food supply situation has changed since the optimistic food needs assessment in November. There are no serious problems in Chad's Sahelian zone (the central tier of eight prefectures), but productioh shortfalls are becoming apparent in localized areas of the Sudanian zone (Chad's five southern-most prefectures). Cereal prices in these areas are unseasonably high, and food aid has been recommended. Populations M-Risk Agricultural production in the Chari and Logone River flood plains (Mayo-Kebbi and Tandjil6 prefectures) was severely compromised during the 1988/89 cropping cycle due to excessive rains and resultant flooding of fields. Although disaggregated production figures are difficult to obtain, figures for Gounou Canton (Gounou-Gaya Sub-prefecture, Mayo-Kebbi Prefecture) over the last three years show that 1988/89 cereals production for the canton is down 40 percent from the 1987/88 harvest. Current production will cover only 42 percent of needs. It is likely that other cantons in the flood plains are experiencing production shortfalls of similar magnitude. In some of these areas, roots are being consumed much earlier than usual for the post harvest period, reserves are etremely low, families are leaving their villages, mzrkets are disappearing, and cereal prices are unseasonably high. No signs of malnutrition have been observed, but a food supply assessment team that visited the area during the last week of March bas recommended a one-month food ration for approximately 100,000 people in the cantons at-risk (see Table 1). Teams have also been sent to Logone Occidental, Logone Oriental, Moyen-Chari, and Salamat prefectures to assess the food supply situation before the onset of the rains. Results of these missions are not yet known. Table 1: Chad Populations Requiring Food Aid in April Prefecture Sub-prefecture Population Mayo-Kebbi Bongor Rural, 1 canton 18,000 Mayo-Kebbi Gounou-Gaya, 4 cantons 37,600 Mayo-Kebbi Pala, 4 cantons 21,300 Mayo-Kebbi Fianga, 1 canton 16,000 Tandjil6 Kelo, 1canton 2,000 Tandjil.6 La, 1 canton 7,000 Total 101,909 FEWS Report 3 Chad Page 7 Agricultural Production Most recent analyses of harvest data from the Government of Chad crop production survey indicate much as a 50 percent a. decrease in cereals production for the Sudanian zone, which was October at approximately estimated in 500,000 metric tons (MT). While final estimates for tha Sahelian not yet been released, zone have the outlook for Chad as a whole remains optimistic even at a conservative estimate (625,000 MT). Production shortfalls in the Sudanian zone inarea are due to a substantial reduction harvested over area planted. The greatest reductions were in the Mayo-Kebbi, and Tandjild prefectures, Moyen-Chari, whzre excessive rains resulted inflooded and abandoned fields.