WORLD SAI.M11 FI,iCAL PAPER NLIMIEwiEPR 24
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( ) Indicates number assigned after publication. World Sulphur Survey INDUSTRY AND FINANCE SERIES
Volume 5
This series is produced by the Industry Department of the World Bank to disseminate ongoing work done by the Department and to stimulate further discussion of the issues. The series will include reports on individual sectors in industry, as well as studies on global aspects of world industry, problems of industrial strategy and policy, and issues in industrial finance and financial development.
Four volumes in the series have already been published:
Volume 1. Structural Changes in World Industry: A Quantitative
Analysis of Recent Developments
Volume 2, Energy Efficiency and Fuel Substitution in the Cement
Industry with Emphasis on Development Countries
Volume 3. Industrial Restructuring: Issues and Experience in
Selected Developed Economies
Volume 4. Energy Efficiency in the Steel Industry with Emphasis on
Developing Countries WORLD BANK TECHNICAL PAPER NUMBER 24
World Sulphur Survey William F. Sheldrick
The World Bank Washington, D.C., U.S.A. Copyright ©D 1984 The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/THE WORLD BANK 1818 H Street, N.W. Washington, D.C. 20433, U.S.A.
First printing July 1984 All rights reserved Manufactured in the United States of America
This is a document published informally by the World Bank In order that the information contained in it can be presented with the least possible delay, the typescript has not been prepared in accordance with the procedures appropriate to formal printed texts, and the World Bank accepts no responsibility for errors. The publication is supplied at a token charge to defray part of the cost of manufacture and distribution. The views and interpretations in this document are those of the author(s) and should not be attributed to the World Bank, to its affiliated organizations, or to any individual acting on their behalf. Any maps used have been prepared solely for the convenience of the readers; the denominations used and the boundaries shown do not imply, on the part of the World Bank and its affiliates, any judgment on the legal status of any territory or any endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. The full range of World Bank publications, both free and for sale, is described in the Catalog of Publications; the continuing research program is outlined in Abstracts of Current Studies. Both booklets are updated annually; the most recent edition of each is available without charge from the Publications Sales Unit, Denartment T, The World Bank, 1818 H Street, N.W., Washington, D.C. 20433, U.S.A., or f n the European Office of the Bank, 66 avenue d'I6na, 75116 Paris, France.
William F. Sheldrick is a fertilizer adviser with the Industry Department of the World Bank.
Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data Sheldrick, William F. World sulphur survey.
(Industry and finance series; v. 5) (World Bank technical paper, ISSN 0253-7494 ; no. 24) Bibliography: p. 1. Sulphur industry. 2. Market surveys. I. Title. II. Series. III. Series: World Bank technical paper ; no. 24. HD9585.S82S53 1984 338.2'7668 84-11939 ISBN 0-8213-0379-1 -v-
Abstract
Sulphur is an important raw material for the chemical and fertilizer industries and this report examines the world sulphur industry and forecasts the supply, demand and balances for sulphur through 1992.
Sulphur is produced from three main sources: (1) By mining elemental sulphur with hot water using a special technique known as the "Frasch" process;
(2) As "recovered sulphur" from oil and gas; (3) In the form of sulphuric acid produced from pyrites or smelter gas. Until recently "Frasch" sulphur was the most important source but this has now been overtaken by "recovered sulphur."
The two main producing and exporting regions are North America and Eastern
Europe. Almost all exports from Eastern Europe come from Poland and in 1983 there was a net import of sulphur to the Market Economy Countries of about 1.2 million tons per year and this is expected to rise to about 2.5-3.0 million tons by 1992. Future supplies of sulphur will become increasingly more dependent on the demand for oil and gas and on the successful commissioning of new mines and sulphur recovery plants in Eastern Europe.
About 53% of the estimated consumption of 52.6 million tons sulphur in all forms in 1983 was used for the production of chemical fertilizers and sulphur demand is expected to increase at about 4% per year on average from its depressed base of 50 million tons in 1982 to 74 million tons per year in 1992.
The supply demand situation for sulphur through the next decade is finely balanced and based on curreant forecasts of supply and demand it will be necessary to remove on average about 2 million tons per year of sulphur from stockpile, mainly from Canada, The -ost of producing sulphur from various sources and price forecasts are discussed in the report. - vi -
.Abr
Le present rapport examine l'industrie mondiale du soufre, produit de base important pour la fabrication des produits chimiques et des engrais, et presente des previsions d'offre et de demande jusqu'A la fin de 1992.
La production de soufre provient de trois sources principales
1) 1'extraction de soufre natif (ou de roche) A l'aide d'eau chaude, d'apr6s un proc6d6 special connu sous le nom de proc6d6 "Frasch"; 2) sous forme de soufre de recuperation, pr3duit par le p6trole et le gaz; 3) sous
forme d'acide sulfurique provenant de pyrites ou de gaz de fonderie.
Jusqu'a ces derni&res ann6es, la plupart du soufre &taitobtenu par le
procede "Frasch" mais la source la plus import-ante est aujourd'hui le
soufre de recuperation. Les deux principales r6gions de production et d'exportation de soufre sont l'Am6rique du Nord et 1'Europe de l'Est. La
majeure partie des exportations d'Europe de 1'Est proviennent de la
Pologne; les importations nettes de soufre vers les pays A economie de
marche, qui ont ete d'environ 1,2 million de tonnes en 1983, devraient passer a environ 2,5 A 3 millions de tonnes par an d'ici A 1992. Dans
I'avenir, les approvisionnements en soufre seront de plus en plus tributaires de la demande de petrole et de gaz et des resultats obtenus par l'exploitation de nouveaux gisements et par la mise en service de nouvelles installations de recuperation du soufre en Europe de l'Est.
En 1983, environ 53 % de la consommation de soufre sous toutes ses formes, estimee A 52,6 millions de tonnes, a servi A la fabrication d'engrais chimiques; il est prevu que la demande de soufre augmentera d'environ 4 % par an pour passer du faible niveau de 50 millions de tonnes enregistr6 en 1982 A 74 millions de tonnes par an en 1992. - vii -
L'6quilibre entre ltoffre et la demande de soufre jusqut A la fin
de la prochaine decennie est precaire et, compte tenu des previsions
actuelles, il sera necessaire de prelever en moyenne sur les stocks, et
principalement les reserves accumulees au Canada, environ 2 millions de
tonnes par an de soufre. Le present document examine le co-at de produc-
tiorn du soufre A partir de diverses sources et les previsions de prix.
Extracto
El azufre es una importante materia prima para las industrias de pro- ductos quimicos y de fertilizantes. En este estudio se examina la indus- tria mundial del azufre y se ofrecen proyecciones de la oferta, la demanda y los saldos de existencias de azufre hasta 1992.
El azufre se obtiene principalmente -,,ntres formas: 1) mediante la extracci6n de azufre elemental con agua caliente, usando una tecnica espe- cial conocida como el proceso "Frascht t ; 2) como "azufre recuperado" del petr6leo y el gas, y 3) en forma de Acido sulfiurico, a partir de piritas o del gas de las fundiciones. Hasta hace poco tiempo, la forma mas impor- tante era el azufre elemental extraido mediante el proceso "Frasch", pero ya ha sido superada por el "azufre recuperado". Las dos principales regiones productoras y exportadoras son Am6rica del Norte y Europa Orien- tal. Casi todas las exportaciones de esta uiltima region provienen de Polonia. En 1983 las importaciones netas de los paises con economia de mercado ascendieron a alrededor de 1,2 millones de toneladas, y se preve que este volumen habra aumentado a entre 2,5 y 3 millones de toneladas para 1992. La oferta de azufre en el futuro dependera cada vez mas de la demanda de petr6leo y gas y de la satisfactoria puesta en explotaci6n de nuevas minas y plantas de recuperaci6n de azufre en Europa Oriental.
En 1983, aproximadamente el 53% del consumo total de azufre en todas las formas, estimado en 52,6 millones de toneladas, se destin6 a la pro- ducci6n de fertilizantes quimicos, y se preve que la demanda de azufre aumentara en alrededor de 4% al afno como promedio --a partir de una base deprimida de 50 millones de toneladas en 1982-- y llegara a los 74 millo- nes de toneladas anuales en 1992.
El equilibrio entre la oferta y la demanda de azufre durante el pr6ximo decenio sera delicado; con base en las actuales proyecciones, se estima que sera necesario sacar en promedio unos 2 millones de toneladas al afio de las reservas acumuladas, principalmente del Canada. En este informe se examinan el costo de la producci6n de azufre en las diversas formas y las proyecciones de los precios. -viii-
Acknowledgment
The author is grateful to the members of the International Sulphur Industry who made helpful comments on earlier drafts and to Claudette DuCran who helped to computerize the supply data and in particular to Jane Irvin for her patience and careful assistance during the preparation of the study. -ix-
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Principal Abbreviations and Acronyms Used ...... xiii
Summary and Conclusions ...... a.*.*.*e. . .-. . xv
Sulphur Supply ...... xvi Demand for Sulphur ...... * ...... xvii Supply/Demand Balances ...... xviii
Sulphur Trade ...... a .. a *. . a a * *. *. xx Sulphur Prices ...... xxi
I. Introduction- ...... 1
II. The World Sulphur Industry ...... a . . * . 3
Major Forms of Sulphur ...... 3 World Sulphur Sources and Reserves ...... 5 The Origin of the Sulphur Industry ...... a . .a . . .a 8 Uses of Sulphur ...... a .a . 10 Sulphur for the Fertilizer Industry . . . a a a . . .12 Sulphur for Industrial Chemicals ...... 13
III. Technology Of The Sulphur Industry ...... 14
Frasch Process . a. a. a. a...... a a a a 14 Recovered Sulphur from Natural Gas and Petroleum . . a a . 16 Sulphuric Acid from Brimstone . a . . . a a a a a a a a a 17 Sulphuric Acid from Pyrites or Smelter Operations . a * a a a a a 19 Sulphuric Acid from Gypsum ...... 20
IV. World Sulphur Production ...... a .a . 23
Developed Market Economies ...... 23 North America . e...... a a a a a a .a .a 23 U.S.A . . a a a a . a .a .a . 23 Canada ...... a...... a a .a .a . . 32 Western Europe ...... a a .a a a a a a a .a a . .a . . . 34 Oceania ...... 39 Other Developed Market Economies . a a .. .a . o .a a . .a 39 Developing Market EconoMaies ...... 40 Latin America . . . . . a . . . a a a a . a a .a .a 40 Mexico a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a 41 Other Latin American Countries' . . a a a a a a a a a 42 Near East . .a . . .a . a a a a a a a a a a a a . a a 42 Iraq a a a a a a a a * a a a a43 Other Near EastC ountries...... e..... 43 Far East . . . a a a a . a a a a .a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a 46 Centrally Planned Economies ...... *. * . . * * * * . . 46 East Europe Including U.S.S.R...... 46 U.S.S.R ...... e 47 Poland ...... 48 Other East European Countries ...... 49 Centrally Planned Asia ...... I . 50 China ...... a . . . 50
V. World Sulphur Demand ...... 52 Sulphur Requirements for Fertilizers ...... -...... 52 Sulphur Requirements for Phosphate Fertilizers ...... 52 Sulphur Requirements for Non-Phosphate Fertilizers ...... 54 Industrial Demand for Sulphur ...... 55 World Demand for Sulphur by Source ...... 57
VI. Sulphur Supply/Demand And Balances ...... 58
General ...... I . . . 58 World Supply/Demand and Balances for Sulphur in All Forms . . . . 59 World Supply/Demand and Balances for Brimstone ...... 60 Future Outlook for Sulphur ...... 61 Short and Medium Term Outlook for Sulphur 1983-1993 . .. o . 62 The Long Term Outlook for Sulphur 1990-2000 . . . . . 65
VII. Sulphur And Sulphuric Acid Trade ...... 68 Brimstone Trade ...... 68 Sulphur Export Associations ...... 69 Sulphuric Acid Trade ...... e . * . .. e.. 71 Trade Associations and Distributors for Sulphuric Acid ...... 72 Pyrite Trade . . e...... e ...... 72
VIII. Production Costs For Sulphur And Sulphuric Acid ...... 73
Production Costs for Frasch Sulphur ...... o . . . . e 73 Comparative Production Costs for Sulphuric Acid Manufacture for Various Feedstocks ...... *...... 78 Sulphuric Acid Manufacture from Brimstone ...... 78 Sulphuric Acid Manufacture from Pyrites ...... 79 Sulphuric Acid Manufacture from Phosphogypsum ...... 80 Comparison of Production Costs ...... 81 -xi-
IX. Sulphur Prices ...... 84
General ...... 84 Historical Prices ...... 85 Future Price Forecasts ...... 87
Annexes
1. Industrial Uses of Sulphur ...... * 90 2. Supply Capability of Frasch Sulphur Mines ...... 93 3. Country Production of Sulphur by Major Sources ...... 94 Regional and World Production of Sulphur by Major Sources . . 121 4. Regional and World Production of Brimstone ...... 132 5. Regional and World Production of (Non-Brimstone) Sulphturic Acid ...... 133 6. World Phosphate Supply/Demand Balances ...... 134 7. Regional and World Demand for Sulphuric Acid for Phosphate Fertilizers ...... 139 8. Regional and World Demand for Sulphur for Industrial Use . . 141 9. Regiunal and World Demand for Non-Sulphuric Acid Use of Sulphur ...... 142 10. Sulphur Demand by Region and Source ...... 143 11. Regional and World Sulphur Supply/Demand and Balances . . . 151 12. Brimstone Trade: World Brimstone Deliveries - 1982 ...... 154 13. Production Costs for Frasch Sulphur ...... e . . 157 14. Production Costs for Sulphuric Acid ...... 160 15. Sulphur Prices ...... 166 16. Classification by Economic Classes and Regions ...... 168
References . . . * e . . . e * ...... 169 -xii-
Tables
1. Identified World Sulphur Resources . . e...... 7 2. Identified U.S. Sulphur Resources ...... e 7 3. North American Sulphur Production Outlook ...... 34 4. West European Production Outlook For Elemental Sulphur . . 36 5. Production Outlook for Sulphur in West Europe ...... 39 6. Production Outlook for Sulphur in Japan . . . . . 40 7. Production Outlook for Sulphur in Latin America . . . . . 42 8. Production Outlook for Sulphur in Near East ...... 45 9. Production Outlook for Sulphur in Far East ...... 46 10. Production Outlook for Sulphur in U.S.S.R. and East Europe 50 11, Production Outlook for Sulphur in Asian Centrally Planned Economies . . s...... 0. . . a . 50 12. World Sulphur Demand for Fertilizers ...... 55 13. World Demand for Sulphur ...... e ...... 57 14. World Balances for Sulphur In All Forms ...... , 59 15. Brimstone Balances for Market Economies ...... 61 16. Million Tons Sulphur Exported . e ...... 68 17. Thousand Tons Sulphur Imported ...... 69 18. Market Economies Sulphuric Acid Trade . . . e ...... 71 19. Pyrite Trade 1981 e ...... 0 . e . e . . . . 72 20. Estimated Average U.S.A. Frasch Sulphur Production Cost 1983 for Duval, Freeport and Texasgulf ...... 21. Estimated . 77 U.S.A. Frasch Sulphur Production for a New Mine 77 22. Realization Price for Sulphuric Acid from Brimstone . e . for Varying Oil and Sulphur Prices $/ton ...... o 79 23. Realization Price for Sulphuric Acid Produced from Pyrites for Varying Oil and Pyrite Prices - $/ton . . a . . 80 24. Realization Price for Sulphuric Acid Produced from Phosphogypsum for Varying Oil Prices and Cement Clinker Credits - $/ton . . . , ...... e a * a sa 81 25. Sulphur Export Prices (Solid) ...... * 898 9
Figures
1. World Sulphur Consumption 1900-1983 . . . a a . . . 11 2. Sulfur Well Piping ...... a o. . . . a .a * 15 3. Typical Claus Sulfur Converter Process . . . e . . . . . 17 4. Double Contact Double Absorption Sulphuric Acid Process . 18 5. Flow Diagram for Production of Sulphuric Acid from Pyrites 20 6. Flow Diagram for Sulphuric Acid Process ...... 22 7. North America Sulphur Production 5 . 1 e a a a 31 8. Comparison of Sulphuric Acid Realization Prices for Varying Sulphur and Pyrites Prices ...... e . . . . 83 9. Sulphur Export Prices .. ,. 89 -xiii-
PRINCIPAL ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS USED
P205 - Phosphorus Pentoxide Equivalent in Fertilizers SSP - Single Superphosphate TSP - Triple Superphosphate DAP - Diammonium Phosphate S - Sulphur in its Elemental Form, also known as Brimstone S02 - Sulphur Dioxide Gas H2S - lHydrogen Sulphide Gas H2 SO4; - Sulphuric Acid SOF - Sulphur in Other Forms SAF - Sulphur in All Forms tpd - Tons Per Day (metric unless otherwise stated) tpy - Tons Per Year (metric unless otherwise stated) FOB - Free On Board BTU - British Thermal Unit KWH - Kilowatt Hour M3 - Cubic Meter MM - Million CPE's Centrally '>:Lanned Economies ME's - Market Economies IFDC - International Fertilizer Development Center UNIDO - United Nations Industrial Development Organization FAO - Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations CANSULEX - Canadian Sulphur Export Organization AMSULEX - American Sulphur Export Corporation IFA - International Fertilizer Association DC/DA - Double Contact/Double Absorption in Sulphuric Acid Plant -xv-
SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS
1. Sulphur is an important raw material for the chemical and fertilizer
industries and in 1982 more than 50 million tons of sulphur were consumed, 24 million tons in more than 30 different sectors of the chemical industry and
about 26 million tons for the manufactutre of fertilizers - mainly phosphates.
The sulphur industry therefore depends very much on the fortunes of the
phosphate fertilizer industry and like this industry, the market and prices
follow a cyclical pattern, although the cycles of the two industries are not always in phase. For example in 1978 after a period of oversupply and low prices, the market turned sharply upwards during a period when demand was growing steadily, but production stagnating. In a tight situation 3ulphur prices more than doubled between 1978 and 1981 and the supply situation was further aggravated by the Iraq-Iran War which took about 0.5 million tpy out of the market, The high prices encouraged the Canadian industry to provide facilities to remelt significant quantities of sulphur from the large quantities of recovered sulphur vatted in Canada (then about 20 million tons). In 1982 and
1983, however, a continuing world recession and reduced demand for fertilizers and sulphur caused sulphur prices to fall.
2. The sulphur situation, however, still remains finely balanced with regard to supply and demand and a number of structural changes are also taking place in the industry. For example the dominance of the U.S.A. Frasch industry is now being replaced by recovered sulphur in several parts of the world and on the demand side, trading patterns are widening rapidly as the move to vertical integration in the phosphate industry increases. This review examines the emerging pattern of production and demand and the effect that this is likely to have on sulphur balances and export prices over the next decade, -xvi-
Sulphur Supply
3. Until the 1950's, most sulphur was of a-discretionary nature and
produced either by Frasch mining techniques as brimstone, (elemental sulphur) or
as sulphuric acid from pyrites. In the last decade or so, there has been a significant increase in the production of non-discretionary recovered sulphur
from oil and gas and this trend is likely to continue as indicated below.
World Sulphur Production Million Tons of Sulphur Equivalent
1970 1981 1982 1987 1992
Frasch and Native Sulphur 12.35 15.28 13.03 15.21 16.01 Pyrites 11.50 10.54 10.59 12.84 14.42 Recovered Sulphur 10.43 18.51 18.36 23.52 30.71 Sulphur in Other Forms 6.80 8.79 8.41 10.12 11.72
TOTAL 41.08 53.12 50.39 61.69 72.86
4. Recovered sulphur has grown from about 25% of total production in 1970 to 36% in 1982. By 1992 it will increase to 42%. There will be little change in the quantity of discretionary Frasch and native sulphur as increasing production in Poland will offset the decline in Frasch production in the U.S.A.
The main increase in recovered sulphur will come from the processing of sour gas and crude oil in the U.S.S.R., U.S.A. and the Near East. Increased production of sulphuric acid from pyrites and smelter gas will take place in West Europe,
U.S.S.R. and China. North America was the largest producing region in 1981 with
19.1 million tons (36%) of a world total of 53.1 million tons. The U.S.A. was the largest producer of Frasch sulphur (6.3 million tons) and Canada the largest producer of recovered sulphur (5.9 million tons). However, production in North
America was overtaken in 1982 by Eastern Europe and by 1992 Eastern Europe will increase its position as the largest producer, with 24.3 million tons compared with North America's 21.5 million tons out of a world production total of 72,9 million tons. -xvii-
5. Most sulphur is processed to sulphuric acid and brimstone is the
preferred feedstock for technical reasons and ease of handling. The production
of sulphuric acid from pyrites may be competitive in some areas where the acid
can be consumed in the location of the pyrites mines thus minimizing transport
costs. Sulphuric acid produced from calcium sulphate or phosphogypsum is
expensive both with regard to investment costs and energy use and is not normally economic.
Demand for Sulphur.
6. The current demand patterns for sulphur are expected to continue
through the next decade with almost 50% of sulphur consumption to produce
phosphate fertilizers, about 5% to produce non-phosphate fertilizers and the
remainder being used in the chemical industry. About 10% of sulphur is used
directly as elemental sulphur in such industries as pulp and paper,
vulcanization of rubber, insecticides, etc., but the remaining 90% is used as
sulphuric acid. One possible major use of sulphur in its elemental form which
is currently being investigated but for which it is really too early to make
meaningful demand forecasts is the manufacture of sulphur concrete or as a
substitute for asphalt in highway paving. World demand for sulphur is forecast
as follows,
World Sulphur Demand Million Tons of Sulphur Equivalent
1982. 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1992
Sulphur for fertilizers 26.07 27.67 29.31 30.98 32.35 33.75 40.55 Sulphur for industrial use 24.10 24.91 25.96 26.85 27.84 28.80 33.57
TOTAL 50.17 52.58 55,27 57.83 60.19 62e55 74,12 -xviii-
7. Overall sulphur demand is expected to increase by about 4.0% per year
between 1982-1992 and the growth rate will be slightly higher in the fertilizer
industry than the industrial sector, mainly because of the relatively low
depressed base of fertilizer use in 1982. In the Developed Economies and the
Centrally Planned Economies growth will be about 3.5% per year but in the
Developing Economies it will be about 6.5% per year reflecting their higher
growth rates in fertilizer consumption. Sulphur demand for the fertilizer
industry will grow rapidly in those countries which are moving to integrated
phosphate production such as Morocco, Tunisia, Jordan, etc. In countries such
as Western Europe and Japan a trend to imported processed phosphates will inhibit the sulphur growth rate.
Supply/Demand Balances
8. A comparison of the production and demand for sulphur, based on the
assumptions made in this review indicate that the situation is finely balanced and that it will be necessary to draw material from stock each year for the next
decade. As world stocks are large, however, amounting to more than 22 million tons, of which about 70% is in Canada, the withdrawal of up to two million tons each year should not strain the market or lead to utndue price rises. Remelt capacity is about 3 million tons per year. Because sulphur is produced from several sources and in different forms, some of it discretionary and otherwise,
the sulphur market is usually assessed on the basis of marketable brimstone.
The balances for this are shown below.
Brimstone Balances for Market Economies Before Removal From Stock Million Tons of Sulphur Equivalent
1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1992 Assumes increase in U.S. Frasch Sulphur production -0.28 -2.06 -1.32 -0.38 -0.70 -1.12 -2.48 Assumes no increase in U.S. Frasch Sulphur production -0.28 -2.06 -2.32 -2.18 -2.50 -2.42 -3.28 -xix-
9. Almost all sulphur exports from Centrally Planned Economies come from
Poland and there is a net import of brimstone to the Market Economies of about
1.2 million tons which is expected to rise to about 2.5-3.0 million tons by
1992. During the next decade sulphur supply will depend on many factors but mainly on the production of Frasch sulphur in the U.S.A., on recovered sulphur in the Near East, and on developments of new production facilities in Eastern
Europe. In the short-term, Frasch sulphur production in the U.S.A. will be the most important factor as it is the major discretionary source of sulphur.
Although Frasch producers have the capacity to operate at more than 5 million tons of sulphur per year they have recently demonstrated that they are prepared to reduce output to just over 3 million tons per year in the face of diminishing reserves and falling prices. The table a')ve indicates the effect on brimstone balances if Frasch production is not increased beyond its present level. Even so there should be sufficient supplies of sulphur throughout the 1980's although prices will probably rise as increasing quantities are withdrawn from stock.
10. In the medium-term the most important factor will be delays in the development of production from the new facilities in East Europe, as seems likely in the case of the new mine in Poland which could have a serious effect on sulphur supply after 1986. The sulphur balances also depend on the average growth rate for sulphur over the next ten years which has been estimated in this review at about 4% per year. If, for example, this increase is only 3.8%, production and demand will be balanced without the need for stock withdrawal.
If it is 4.3% stoclcs will be depleted before 1990.
11. In the long-term, Eastern Europe is expected to take over from North
America as the leading producer and exporter of sulphur. The supply situation in the 1990's is uncertain but there will be increasing quantities of sulphur available from new projects such as synfuels, coal gasification and coal -xx -
cleaning and possibly from the increased recovery of sulphur from flue gases, as well as from new discoveries of brimstone and pyrites. More than half sulphur demand is used to produce fertilizers and if in the long-term there is a chronic shortage of sulphur, the industry will reduce its sulphur needs by adapting its processes to use other technologies including the use of other mineral acids. Sulphur Trade
12. About 90% of all sulphur exported is as brimstone, about 6% as sulphuric acid and the remaining 4% as pyrites. Canada is the main exporter of brimstone - 6.0 million tons out of a total of 14.5 million tons in 1982 and Poland is the second largest exporter with nearly 4 million tons. The largest importers are the countries of Western Europe and Eastern Europe (other than Poland). Large phosphate fertilizer producers such as Morocco, Tunisia, Brazil and India are also large importers of sulphur. 13. Sulphur is exported from only a few countries such as Canada, Poland, U.S.A., Mexico and France and hence trading arrangements are handled mainly through a few trading organizations. In Canada, Cansulex sells exclusively offshore on behalf of its eighteen members and handles about half of Canada's exports and about 15% of world trade. The remaining Canadian exports are through six independent companies. In Poland, exports are handled by a state marketing company, Ciech Siarkopal, and in the U.S.A. two of the major companies, Duval and Freeport, sell through Amsulex. Most sulphuric acid traded is produced from smelter gas and exports are from West Europe, Japan and Canada. West European trade is mainly inter-regional. The major sulphuric acid traders are Sulphur AG, Interacid, Metallgesellschaft and Boliden Intertrade in Europe; and Canadian Industries Limited in Canada. About 600,000 tpy sulphur equivalent are traded as pyrites essentially in Western and Eastern Europe. -xxi-
Sulphur Prices
14. In real terms sulphur prices have varied between about $40/ton and
$130/ton FOB U.S. Gulf port during the last ten years and the average price has been about $79/ton (1983 constant $). Prices depend to a large extent on the cost of production and policy of the U.S.A. Frasch producers who have shown in
1983 that with relatively high production costs and dwindling reserves they are prepared to reduce production to meet the market situation. An assessment of the cost of producing sulphur by Frasch mining indicates that a price below
$85/ton FOB U.S. Gulf port is likely to force a significant part of Frasch capacity out of production. Although spot prices were almost down to this level already in end-1983, and Frasch production has been reduced to about 3 million tons per year, future needs will require that this be increased again to about 5 million tons per year by 1987. The price of Frasch production is also expected to rise with increasing prices for gas, as energy is the most important component of cost production.
15. It is forecast that prices will therefore level off at their current values of between $100-105/ton FOB U.S. Gulf port and will then slowly rise to about $115/ton (1983 constant $) through the next decade. Vancouver prices are expected to follow these trends at a lower level of about $85 increasing to $101 per ton by 1992. Throughout the forecast period however spot sulphur prices are expected to vary considerably depending on seasonal demand and other short-term factors. I. INTRODUCTION
1.01 Sulphur is an important element in the chemical industry, mainly because it is the raw material for sulphuric acid, a versatile mineral acid, used as an intermediate in many sectors of the chemical industry. The most important use of sulphuric acid is the manufacture of phosphate fertilizers and almost half the world's consumption of sulphur is for this purpose. Other mineral acids also have the properties of solubilizing phosphate rock, but the relatively cheap price and availability of sulphuric acid has made it the most economic route, Based on present technology it appears that sulphur and sulphuric acid will retain their favored position and hence the fertilizer industry will continue to depend on sulphur as an important raw material. The remaining half of sulphur demand is used in the production of chemicals other than fertilizers and this goes into more than thirty industries of widely varying nature and sulphur demand is not over-dependent on any one of these industries. In the case of phosphate fertilizers the situation is different and the fortunes of the two industries are thus closely linked.
1.02 Although both the sulphur and phosphate industries are of a cyclical nature these have not always been in phase and the relative importance of sulphur as a cost component of the processed phosphate industry has varied significantly over the years. In particular, in the last two or three years sulphur prices have been high relative to the other variable costs of phosphate production, at a time when processed phosphate prices were extremely low. The last few years have also seen the commencement of some major changes in the structure of both the sulphur and the phosphate industries. For sulphur, the growing importance of recovered sulphur and the reduction of U.S.A. Frasch production will. make sulph'ir supply much more dependent on the energy industry.
For phosphates the trend towards vertical integration is having a major impact on the trading patterns for sulphur. -2-
This World Sulphur Survey is designed to give a comprehensive overview of the sulphur industry in a global framework with particular emphasis on recent developments, present situation and projected future developments in demand, supply production costs and prices up to 1992. The historic data and projections are a result of: (1) an extensive data search; (ii) collaboration with various institutions and groups associated with the fertilizer and sulphur
industry; and (iii) "best judgements" of various experts in these organizations. Little attempt has been made in this version to establish functional relationships between supply demand and price by using economic tools or models although to some extent the linkage is implicit through the "best judgement" of the various experts who agreed on the data and projections. The Industry Department of the World Bank intends, however, to carry out further research on this linkage question in the context of a World Phosphate Fertilizer Study.
The structure of the report is systematic and attempts to make each chapter self-contained. Extensive annex material on historic industry development, data on raw materials and mining, supply, dem,and and balance data and projections complete the global view of the report. -3-
II. THE WORLD SULPHUR INDUSTRY
2.01 This section briefly provides some background information on the sources, resources, uses and historical development of the sulphur industry.
Major Forms of_Sulh~ur
2.02 The sulphur resources of the world are present in the earth's crust in many materials but it is not always easy to exploit these in such a way as to recover sulphur in its elemental form. Elemental sulphur is present in sulphur ores that were created by volcanic action, or ores that are associated with related phenomena. Elemental sulphur is also present in sedimentary rocks such as limestone. These occurrences are referred to as native sulphlur. Sulphur is also abundant in the form of sulphide minerals associated with several metals such as iron, copper, zinc, lead, etc. As a result of this, sulphur is often recovered from sulphur dioxide (SO 2 ) in gases produced during the recovery of metals by smelting. Sulphur often occurs as a sulphate mineral tmainly in the form of calcium sulphate (gypsum or anhydrite), and in a few locations sulphuric acid is recovered from this material or from phosphogypsum produced as a byproduct during the manufacture of phosphoric acid. Sulphur is present in many liquid, gaseous and solid hydrocarbons, an increasingly important source of sulphur as the demand for energy increases and environmental constraints are tightened.
2.03 In order to distinguish between different forms of sulphur, several terms are generally used; they are brimstone, pyrite and sulphur in other forms.
Brimstone - This term applies solely to sulphur produced in its elemental form and is used to distinguish between elemental sulphur and other forms, Brimstone can be recovered by those methods known as "Frasch", "recovered sulphur" and
"1native refined sulphur." The Frasch process which is discussed in more detail in Section III A of the report involves the recovery of liquid sulphur by -4-
injecting hot water into the native sulphur deposit to melt the sulphur contained in the ore. Recovered sulphur production normally takes place at oil refineries and natural gas plants where hydrogen sulphide is treated in a sulphur recovery unit to extract the sulphur content in its elemental form. Pyrite - This is a common mineral of iron and sulphur. The general term pyrites is used to describe a range of iron sulphide minerals that include pyrite, marcasite and pyrrhotite.
Sulphur in Other Forms (SOF) - This category involves forms other than brimstone or pyrite where the sulphur is produced in the form of sulphuric acid without prior refining to brimstone. It could also include crude native sulphur ore used directly to produce sulphuric acid without refining. SOF would also include the following sources:
(a) Sulphur dioxide - containing waste gases at zinc, copper lead or nickel smelters.,
(b) Gypsum or anhydrite.
(c) Hydrogen sulphide content of oil refinery or coke oven gases. (d) Oil refinery acid sludge.
(e) Spent acid.
(f) Ferrous sulphate.
Sulphur sources are also designated into two types: Discretionar - includes Frasch, native sulphur and pyrites. Non-discretionary - this usually includes recovered sulphur and sulphur in other forms.
A fourth term "Sulphur In All Forms" (SAF) is used to indicate the aggregate of brimstone, the sulphur content of pyrites and the sulphur equivalent of sulphur in other forms. -5-
World Sulphur Sources and Reserves
2.04 An assessment of world sulphur resources is shown in Table 1 and for the U.S.A. in Table 2. Sulphur is found in numerous forms in many parts of the world. It is found in the elemental form and combined with sulphides, sulphates and organic compounds in sedimentary, metamorphic and igneous rocks, as well as in all types of fossil fuels.
2.05 The types of deposits can be classified roughly as follows:
Elemental (Native) Sulphur Deposits - These include deposits; (1) in anhydrite on the top and flanks of salt domes; (2) in bedded anhydrite or gypsum evaporite basin formations; and (3) in volcanic rocks. In salt domes and evaporite beds the sulphur is considered to have been formed by hydrocarbon reduction of anhydrite assisted by bacterial actions. Volcanic sulphur was derived by the reaction between escaping hydrogen sulphide and sulphur dioxide. Large deposits over salt domes are exploited in the Gulf Coast regions of the U.S.A. and
Mexico, Important deposits in evaporites are also mined in West Texas, Poland,
U.S.S.R. and Iraq. Together they are by far the principle sources of mined elemental sulphur. Volcanic sulphur forms only a small part of the world's sulphur supply.
Metal Sulphide Deposits - These include deposits of; (1) ferrous sulphides
(pyrites and pyrrhotite) which, although they may contain minor amounts of non-ferrous minerals are generally mined for their sulphur content; and (2) non-ferrous metal sulphides which are usually processed for their non-ferrous metal content with a possible secondary recovery of sulphur. Pyrite deposits are a major source of world sulphur supply.
Sulphate Deposits - These include mainly deposits of gypsum and anhydrite.
Although technology exists for both elemental and sulphuric acid recovery from these materials the economics are presently unfavorable. Natural Gas - Sour natural gas contains hydrogen sulphide which must be removed prior to marketing. Major deposits of natural gas containing sulphur are available in Canada, U.S.A., Near East, U.S.S.R., etc. and elemental sulphur recovered from sour gas is becoming an increasing source of world sulphur supply.
Oil and Tar Sands - Organic sulphur compounds occur as components of oil and tar sands and have to be removed as recovered elemental sulphur during refining. In particular the large oil reserves of the Middle East are high in sulphur content and major sulphur resources also occur in the Canadian tar sands.
Coal and Oil Shale - These materials contain pyrites and organic sulphur compounds and although production of sulphur from these sources is relatively low at the present time it represents a potential for the future, particularly as stricter environmental regulations increase. -7-
Table 1 Identified World Sulphur Resources a Million Metric Tons
Reserves Otherb Total
North America United States 175 155 330 Canada 250 2,000 2,250 Mexico 90 60 150 Other 5 5 Total 520 2,215 2,735 South America Total 30 30 60 Europe U.S.S.R. 250 450 700 Poland 150 450 600 France 30 10 40 Germany, Federal Republic of 30 5 35 Spain 30 450 480 Italy 15 25 40 Other 185 285 470 Total 690 1,675 2,365 Africa Total 20 - 20 Asia Japan 10 40 50 Iraq 150 50 200 Near East 250 400 600 China, Mainland 25 50 75 Other 50 200 250 Total 485 740 1,175 Oceania Total 20 10 30
WORLD TOTAL 1,765 4,670 6,385
Table 2 Identified U.S. Sulphur Resources a Million Metric Tons
Type of Deposit Reserves Other Total
Salt domes and evaporites 90 25 115 Non-ferrous metal sulf ides 55 30 85 Natural Gas 20 10 30 Petroleum 10 10 20 Pyrites - 50 50 Volcanic 20 20 Tar sands - 10 10
TOTAL 175 155 330 a U.S. Bureau of Mines. Sulphur. A Chapter from Mineral Facts and Problems 1980. Additional information is given on sulphur resources in Section IV which deals with the production situation in each region. b Derived in consultation with U.S. Geological Survey. -8-
The Origin of the Sulphur Industry
2.06 Sulphur probably plays a more important part in the world chemical
industry than any other material. Fortunately sulphtur is one of the most
abundant chemical elements and is present both as native sulphur and in many common minerals. Sulphur has been used by man since ancient times, the Ancient
Egyptians, Greeks and Romans all refer to sulphur and its use as a medicine and
fumigant. The demand for sulphur, however, was very small until the invention
of gunpowder (in China about 1200 A.D. which contains about 10-15% sulphur).
Until the beginning of the twentieth century gunpowder remained the sole explosive propellant for ammunition. The demand for sulphur was met from volcano craters and by stripping the outcroppings of underground Sicilian deposits.
2.07 For the past two hundred years or so, however, the main use of sulphur or brimstone, as it is commonly known in the elemental form, has been in the production of sulphuric acid. The development of the "Lead Chamber" process for sulphuric acid at the end of the eighteenth century provided cheap acid which could be used in the production of many chemicals. In particular, the use of sulphuric acid to make soda alkali by the Leblanc process increased the demand for sulphur rapidly.
2.08 It is of interest to note that the cyclical nature of the industry so prevalent today, also existed at that time. Demand for sulphur increased more rapidly than Sicilian production and by 1831 exports exceeded 40,000 tons.
Prices advanced from $20 to $70 per ton and when demand and output increased significantly the following year, prices increased to $80/ton. As a result of overstocking, the market collapsed and prices fell to $15/ton. An attempt to restore the price to $70/ton failed as the chemical industry turned to pyrites as an alternative source of sulphuric acid. Even today the potential increased -9-
use of pyrites counters the unreasonable rise of brimstone prices. In 1833 a new process was developed by Michel Perrett in France for producing sulphur dioxide from pyrites and with the development of the rotary furnace in 1870 a profitable process was established. By 1880 with the :'xception of the U.S.A. the sulphuric acid of the world was made almost entirely from pyrites.
Meanwhile the demand for sulphuric acid was continuing steadily. The discovery by Liebig in the mid-nineteenth century that insoluble phosphates can be made more available for plant nutrition by reacting them with sulphuric acid initiated the phosphate fertilizer industry which over the years has developed into the major single use of sulphur. The increased use of sulphur as a pesticide, in the vulcanization process for rubber and for the production of paper pulp, also significantly increased sulphur demand. The development of the petroleum industry in the U.S.A. in which sulphuric acid was used to refine kerosene also created a large new demand for sulphur.
2.09 The brimstone market continued to be dominated by Sicily but this changed when sulphur from the new Frasch process in the U.S.A. entered the market in the early 1900's. There was intense competition for almost a decade until an understanding was reached between the U.S.A. and Italy on market share, which lasted until 1918. Although the pyrites industry gradually dominated the
European warket, in the U.S.A. the development of new Frasch mines in Louisiana and Texas made brimstone the main feedstock for sulphuric acid manufacture.
2.10 The world sulphur industry has developed steadily through the present century but not without its cyclical problems of supply/demand and prices.
Brimstone supply continued to be dominated by U.S.A. Frasch sulphur until the
1950's. In 1954 Mexico commenced production and has developed as a major exporter. The recovery of sulphur from natural gas and petroleum products has also made Canada one of the largest sources and exporters of sulphur. Poland -10-
has recently entered the market and become a major producer and exporter of Frasch sulphur.
2.11 The principal demand for sulphur, amounting to about half total world
consumption is for the phosphate fertilizer industry and this is likely to
continue, The remainder of consumption is in the chemical industry where
sulphur is used for many different purposes. There is little doubt that sulphur
will remain an important keystone of the modern chemical industry for many years
to come. The growth in world sulphur consumption since 1900 is shown in Figure 1.
Uses of Sulphur
2.12 Sulphur is one of the world's most important chemicals and has many
uses, particularly in the form of its most important derivative, sulphuric
acid. By far the largest single sulphur consuming sector is the fertilizer
industry and more than half of the world's sulphur usage is needed to produce
fertilizers, particularly phosphate fertilizers. The remainder of sulphur demand is in the industrial sector. The major uses are in the production of
chemicals and pigments, in petroleum refining and in the pulp and paper industries. Almost 90% of all sulphur is used as sulphuric acid mainly in fertilizers and elemental sulphur is used mainly in the wood and paper industry. A possible new potential growth area for sulphur is as sulphur extended asphalt for highway paving. Sulphur asphalt paving has been tested and found to be as durable as asphalt paving and could have economic advantages when the prices of asphalt exceeds the price of sulphur. Regional and world demand for sulphur by industrial sector is given in Annex 10 and is summarized for the world in Table 14. -11- F*ISG. I
WORLD SULPHUR CONSUMPTION 1900-I983 79-
Ge
R:HUR
Iwos 1Q10 1210 1930 1,94e IOs le9s 1970 18o YEARS -12-
Sulphur for the Fertilizer Industry
2.13 Although sulphur is an important plant nutrient itself, its greatest
use in the fertilizer industry is as sulphuric acid which is needed to breakdown
the chemical and physical structure of phosphate rock to make its phosphorus
content more available to plant life. The technique of using sulphuric acid to
produce more "available" phosphates was first discovered by Liebig in the first
half of the nineteenth century and the use of sulphur for fertilizer production
has grown continuously since then. For the first 100 years or so of the
phosphate industry - up to about 1950 - the main product was single
superphosphate which, depending on the rock being processed, requires about 0.6-0.8 tons of sulphur for one ton of "avaklable" P2 05 produced. Since 1950
there has been a growing trend towards more concentrated fertilizers based on
phosphoric acid and in particular to diammonium phosphate which requires about
0.8-1.0 tons of sulphur per ton of P205. The last few years therefore have seen
a slightly higher rate of growth of sulphur than the growth of P205 consumption
as the trend to more concentrated fertilizers has continued. About 70% of
phosphate fertilizers is now based on phosphoric acid, so future consumption of
sulphur relative to phosphate fertilizer is expected to grow at a slightly lower rate than previously, and more or less in line with increasing P2 05 demand.
2.14 Sulphuric acid is also used in the fertilizer industry to produce both
nitrogen fertilizers (ammonium sulphate) and potash fertilizers (potassium
sulphate). At one time ammonium sulphate was the main nitrogen fertilizer but
its popularity and production have declined due to its low concentration. Only
a small amount of potassium sulphate is produced using sulphuric acid. In 1982 about 26.1 million tons of sulphur were used to produce fertilizers of which
23.6 million tons were used for phosphate fertilizers and the remaining 2.5 million tons for the production of ammonium sulphate and potassium sulphate. -13-
Sulphur for Industrial Chemicals
2.15 There is very little published informatior on the use of sulphur in industrial chemicals outside the U.S.A. and most information for other countries is inferred using the U.S.A. as a model. The data in Annex 1 prepared by the
U.S. Bureau of Mines indicate about thirty different chemical industries where sulphur is used either in the elemental form or as sulphuric acid. One of the largest uses for sulphuric acid is for ore and metal processing particularly for copper refining and the pickling of steel. It is estimated that about four million tons of "sulphur equivalent" are used worldwide for this purpose.
2.16 Another large user of sulphur, mainly in the form of brimstone is for pulp and paper production for sulphite pulping and for bleaching. In the rayon industry, brimstone is also used in non-acid form as well as acid for the production of carbon disulphide which goes into viscose. Ground and refined brimstone is produced in many grades and has applications in rubber vulcanizing, as a direct application fertilizer and in the manufacture of insecticides and pesticides. Sulphuric acid is used in such chemical industries as titanium ore processing and pigments production (for paints, printing inks, fabric coating, etc.) in rayon and nylon production, in petroleum refining (for polymerization alkylation cracking, etc.) and for a variety of other uses including synthetic detergents, explosives, pharmaceuticals, dyestuffs, water treatment, etc.
2.17 As discussed later in the review (Section V B) a growing use of sulphur might develop in the manufacture of concrete and highway paving. -14-
III. TECHNOLOGY OF THE SULPHUR INDUSTRY 3.01 The technology of sulphur recovery is relatively simple and involves only a few processes which are designed to recover sulphur either as elemental sulphur (brimstone) or as sulphuric acid. These are described briefly below and the cost of producing sulphur by these processes is given in Section VIII. Frasch Process
3.02 The Frasch process is used to recover sulphur from underground deposits and depends on the principle that sulphur melts at about 1200 C and above this temperature, up to about 1600 C, can be handled relatively easily as a molten material. In order to achieve this, large quantities of hot water are introduced into the deposits of native sulphur and the molten sulphur is then removed to the surface as elemental sulphur with high purity. Figure 2 illustrates the operation of a typical Frasch sulphur production well. Hot water is pumped through a pipe to the bottom of the sulphur formation and forced out through holes into the matrix. The heat of the hot water melts the sulphur in the matrix, which being heavier than water, accumulates in the form of a liquid sulphur pool at the bottom of the well. Another pipe carries compressed air to the molten sulphur and air lifts it to the surface. The injected water is not removed through the production well but it migrates through the formation and is eventually extracted through bleed water wells which are usually located in the flanks of the structure away from the mining area. The molten sulphur is solidified by cooling in vats where it can be stored. Sulphur is also stored and transported in molten form.
3.03 The cost of heating the process water is by far the largest item of operating expense. It is therefore important to minimize water usage and the process is employed almost exclusively for the mining of permeable sulphur formations. These conditions permit the introduction of hot water, its -15-
migration away from the production area, with the release of the residual heat to formations that will be mined at a later period, and the retention of the molten sulphur within the area being mined prior to its airlifting to the surface.
Figure 2 - Reference 1
SULFUR WELL PIPING
P § / OTWLR TXASGULF,N R
uROS - w =:F:SEDIMENTu *j,~~~ 7C;IgfITE :-. .- .to'C^-b '°:h°o0 o UCAPROCIAKD+.
PEXAS Lf,lN -16-
Recovered Sulphur from Natural Gas and Petroleum
3.04 In the case of sour gas, sulphur occurs as free hydrogen sulphide and in petroleum, as an organic sulphur compound. During the refining process of petroleum a portion of the refinery stream from which the sulphur must be removed, is subjected to a hydrogenation step to convert the sulphur compounds to gaseous hydrogen sulphide. In both cases the gas streams containing the hydrogen sulphide are passed through an absorbent solution to remove the hydrogen sulphide and other gases such as carbon dioxide. The absorbent solution in turn is stripped of its hydrogen sulphide content yielding the concentrated hydrogen sulphide gas (acid gas). 3.05 Sulphur recovery from acid gas uses one of three processes. (a) Claus Process.
(b) Liquid Media Absorption.
(c) Dry Bed Absorption.
The Claus process is the most commonly used and is described briefly below and in Figure 3. In this process part of the hydrogen sulphide gas (about one-third) is burned under controlled conditions to produce sulphur dioxide. This gas is mixed with the remaining hydrogen sulphide gas which reacts to produce elemental sulphur of high quality which is removed as liquid sulphur. While the larger portion of the sulphur is removed in the first condenser, it is necessary to pass the hydrogen sulphide and sulphur dioxide through two or more catalytic converters most commonly containing activated bauxite. The residual waste gas from the process is burned to convert the remaining hydrogen sulphide to sulphur dioxide before emission to the atmosphere. The process has been well developed, with a three converter plant obtaining more than 98% recovery of sulphur from the feed stream. -7
Figure 3 - Reference 1
TYPICAL CLAUS SULFUR CONIVERTER PROCESS
2S25+302 2so2+2H2S 0
S02 +2H 2S 3S+2820
CONVERTERS STACK STEAM (ACTIVATED BAUXITE CATALYST)
REACTION I TfEAM STGEAM H FURNACE AA
CONDENSER INCINERATOR
LIQUID SULFUR LIQUID LIQUID SULFUR SULFUR
COURTESY AQUITAINE COMPANY OF CANAOA Ltd.
Sulphuric Acid from Brimstone
3.06 Brimstone or elemental sulphur is the preferred source of sulphuric acid whenever it is available at reasonable cost. Sulphur burning plants are designed to use either solid or liquid feedstock although liquid is generally preferred because of its ease in handling and reduced environmental problems.
In a typical sulphuric acid plant, solid sulphur is melted before use and then burned with dry air. The sulphur is burned in a refractory lined combustion chamber to produce a gas containing about 10% sulphur dioxide. The catalytic conversion of sulphur dioxide to sulphur trioxide is usually carried out in three or more catalytic beds with cooling between the beds to keep the temperature within the desired range of 420-4500 C. The conversion steps are -18-
carried out by contact of the gas with successive beds of vanadium oxide catalyst. The gas leaving the converter tower is cooled further in a heat exchanger before entering the absorption tower where the sulphur trioxide is absorbedl in a recirculated stream of concentrated sulphuric acid maintained at a desired concentration of 98% by water addition. 3.07 In a single absorption process the recovery of sulphur as acid is 97-98% and the remainder is lost to the atmosphere, In many countries this level of emission is unacceptable and therefore more plants now use a double contact double absorption (DC/DA) system as shown in Figure 4. In a well operated DC/DA plant recoveries of sulphur should be at least 99.7%. About one ton of steam is recovered for every ton of sulphuric acid produced.
Figure 4 - Reference: IFDC Fertilizer Manual Double Contact Double Absorption Sulphuric Acid Process
8RINK MIST ELIMINATOR S%fJUR -U HEAT ITR EXCHANGER AESORBING TOWER X v FINAL I BOLRBOILER ABSORBIING BOILER
CONVERTEREOO AIR DRYING SULFUR E BLOWER TOWER BURNER SLWREXCH-ANE HEAT PRODUCT ACID
lACPD COOLERS
C, L- -)ACID COOLER i - -SDILUTION
DILUTION -r.- WIATER a A f
ACID PUMP TANK ACID PUMP TAN
- --- j -19-
Sulphuric Acid from Pyrites or Smelter Operations
3.08 Pure iron pyrite contains about 53% sulphur, but after mining and beneficiation, most commerical grades of pyrites are normally in the range of
40-50% S. The most common valuable elements associated with iron pyrite are copper, lead and zinc but the ores can contain many other elements. The recovery of the valuable metals and of the iron plays an important part in the economics of processing. When the pyrites are relatively rich in copper or other valuable metals, the ore may be separated by beneficiation, to provide a concentrate of non-ferrous sulphide which is treated separately. Alternatively the cinder (residue) after roasting may be treated by one of several methods to ext*ract valuable elements. Since the cinder mainly consists of iron oxide, it may be used as an iron ore. However since several possible impurities are objectionable for use as iron ore, treatment after roasting may serve a dual purpose of recovering valuable elements and purifying the cinder for use in the steel industry. A simplified flow diagram for production of sulphuric acid from pyrites is shown in Figure 5. The diagram shows a single contact single absorption process although where environmental conditions require it a DC/DA system would be more common. -20-
Figure 5 - Reference: IFDC Fertilizer Manual
OREM0SEA CRINDIG COOLNGf 0 -WATER
F E LII 2 ,\ m,AS r PIPT>
COOLER ClVRErAOVEE DUS AN STW WEAK ACID STORAGE TOAP ASHORtION WATERNWAERTO STRONGAC DST L C'
TRONWACID COOLER
SulphuricAcid f psum
3.09 A few plants have been built to produce sulphuric acid from gypsum or anhydrite with production of cement as a byproduct, although normally this process is not competitive ECNMZR HATECAGR with other sulphuric acid processes because of the high investment and fuel costs. A simplified flow diagram for the process is shown in Figure 6. The process is carried out in a rotary kiln which is similar
to a cement k ln. When gypsum is used, it is first dehydrated in a separate kiln. When phosphogypsum is used, part of the fluorine is driven off and may be recovered or disposed of. When anhydrite is used, this precalcination step is unnecessary. -21-
3.10 The charge to the rotary kiln consists of anhydrite (or calcined gypsum) coke, silica and shale or other sources of iron and aluminum oxide. The charge must be proportioned precisely to give the required ratios of CaO, SiO2,
A1203 and Fe203 required for good quality cement. The charge is mixed, ground and pelletized to avoid dust losses. The kiln may be fired with coal oil or gas and the maximum temperature in the kiln is just short of fusion point which may be of the order of 14000 C. The cement clinker is discharged to a cooler, then it is finely ground and mixed with about 5% gypsum (a set retarder).
3.11 The sulphur is driven off from the charge as sulphur dioxide and emerges in the kiln exhaust gas which also contains oxygen, nitrogen, carbon dioxide water vapor and a substantial amount of dust. The gas is cleaned and cooled in a system of cyclones, electrostatic precipitators and scrubbers. Air is then added for the oxidation of sulphur dioxide to sulphur trioxide. At this point the sulphur dioxlcle content of the gas is about 5.5%. The gas is dried, reheated to conversion tentp4-eIrature and passed through the sulphuric acid plant which is similar to that in D'.Igure 5. Due to the lower concentration of sulphur dioxide all equipment must be larger. The process produces acid of about 90-98% concentration and approximately one ton of cement for every ton of sulphuric acid. -22-
Figure 6 - Reference: IFDC Fertilizer Manual
-YPSLIOR ATMOSPHERE STACK
FLUORINE RECOVERY I PARAOR "EDER g SOERE
ASORBERAAIR f"2504 BURACIR fi H20 VLAY KLN + " ACID COOLER
CORE FLY ASH OR OARA ASTERRESWATER S I 7 SEPARATOR DRY STORAGE SIL3 CAS
PELLETIZER FEEDERS W 5 s-CONVEYOR SCRUBBER PRECIPITATOR TOWER,'
C CEM1ENT PORTLAND CIE6EIWT -23- IV. WORLD SULPHUR PRODUCTION 4.01 The information on world production outlined in this section is classified according to the economic F.A.O. classification of countries and regions and is compatible with the phosphate statistics prepared by the World Bank/FAO/UNIDO Fertilizer Industry Working Group. This classification is shown in Annex 16. Developed Market Economies North America 4.02 North America has for many years been the world's largest producer of "sulphur in all forms"' and currently accounts for about one-third of the world's total supply capability. The U.S.A. possesses the world's largest Frasch sulphur industry and is the second largest producer of recovered sulphur and other forms of sulphur. Canada is the largest single producer of recovered sulphur. Detailed forecasts of North America sulphur production are given in Annex 3. U.S.A. 4.03 The Frasch Sulphur Industry - Frasch sulphur was first produced in 1894 from the caprock of the salt dome at what is now known as Sulphur Mine in Louisiana. About 500 feet deep, the deposit was inaccessible to open-cast working and as a result of a rtew process developed by Herman Frasch, sulphur was successfully recovered by injecting steam into the deposit to melt it and air was injected to raise the sulphur to the surface. The Union Sulphur Company was formed in 1896 with the mineral rights at Sulphur Mine and the Frasch sulphur patents. In 1912 Freeport commenced operation at Bryanmound, Texas and in 1919 Texas Gulf opened its Old Gulf Mine on the Big Hill deposit. These two companies subsequently became two of the largest in the industry. In 1928 Duval who now owns the largest sulphur mine in the world - the Rustler Heights or -24- Culberson mine in West Texas entered the business followed by the Jefferson Lake Sulphur Company five years later. By 1952 the Frasch mines in the U.S.A. Gulf region had produced 98.6 million tons of sulphur and although twelve mining operations on nine different domes had ended, ten others operating on ten different domes were still producing. A peak output of about 7.0 million tons of Frasch sulphur was obtained in 1966 but the production trend since has been downwards. Three companies continue to dominate the production of Frasch sulphur in the U.S.A. - Duval, Freeport Minerals and Texasgulf and their five largest mines supplied about 85% of total U.S.A. Frasch sulphur in 1980. Mining is carried out in Texas and Louisiana. Other companies involved in Frasch sulphur, but on a relatively small scale, include Farmland Industries Incorporated and Jefferson Lake Sulphur Company. The forecasts for Frasch sulphur productioin capability are given in Annex 2 for each mine in the U.S.A. (Reference 2). Actual production will of course be adjusted to the market conditions prevailing at the time. 4.04 The production capability of Frasch sulphur in the U.S.A. in 1980 was just over six million tons per annum but this is expected to fall steadily through the next decade and, based on existing reserve levels and operating mines, output is expected to decline to about four million tons by 1990 and to about two million tons by 2000. If the reduced operations experienced in 1983 are continued the reserves will obviously last longer. The fall-off in production is due in part to the exhaustion of Freeport's two major mines, Garden Island Bay and Grand Isle. Texasgulf will also have a reserve problem as its largest mine at Newgulf reaches the end of its operating life by the end of the century. Texasgulf's Moss Bluff facility was closed in 1982 and the other mine at Commanche Creek in Texas was closed at the end of 1983. Duval has the -25- strongest reserve situation and its Culberson mine can operate until the year 2000. 4.05 Forecasts for the actual overall production of Frasch sulphur mines in the U.S.A. assuming that no new mines come on-stream and taking into account forecast prices and demand balances are as follows: Million Tons Per Annum 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1992 6.35 4.21 3.20 4.20 5.00 5.00 5.00 4.00 These projections are based on the production figures available at the end of 1983. In 1983 producers reduced output of Frasch sulphur but supported supply by reducing stocks. Proven U.S.A. Sulphur Reserves at Active Frasch Mines Million Tons Sulphur Duval - 38.6 Freeport - McMoran - 14.1 Texasgulf - 13.7 Farmland - Small 66.4 Reference 3 4.06 Pyrites - Only a small part of discretionary sulphur values come from pyrites in the U.S.A. About one million tons of sulphuric acid equivalent to about 300,000 tons per year of sulphur are produced and little change is expected in this output over the next decade. 4.07 Non-Discretionary Sources of Sulphur in the U.S.A. - Until the mid-1960's about 75% of all U.S.A. sulphur supply was met by Frasch production. 'iince then, however, sulphur production has become increasingly associated with hydrocarbons and the energy business. The recovery of sulphur from the treatment of natural gas and petroleum refining has grown significantly in the last two decades increasing from less than 0.8 million tons in 1960 to about 4.4 -26- million tons in 1982. During this period the market share of Frasch sulphur has declined considerably and in 1982 accounted for 43% of the total U.S.A. sulphur production with recovered sulphur accounting for about 45%. The balance of non-discretionary sulphur production in the U.S.A. is non-elemental and comes mainly as smelter acid. There is also a small sulphur dioxide production. This part of the industry is not expected to grow significantly in the future. 4.08 Sulphur Recovery From Natural Gas - About 15% of gas currently recovered in the U.S.A. contains hydrogen sulphide and must be sweetened before distribution, Hydrogen sulphide is removed from the sour gas by solvent extraction followed by steam stripping. The recovered hydrogen sulphide can then be treated further to recover either elemental sulphur, or sulphur dioxide, .depending on the sulphur dioxide emmission levels set by the state or federal environmental regulations. Generally however, more strict regulations are limiting the amount of sulphur that can be released into the atmosphere. The recovery of sulphur from natural gas depends on the hydrogen sulphide content of the gas, environmental regulations and the economics of recovering the sulphur which also depends on the price of gas. In the past there has been limited incentive for companies to develop sour gas reserves because of the additional cost of removing sulphur. Declining reserves of sweet gas, together with increasing gas prices and the added prospect of high prices for sulphur have increased interest in sour gas developments. There are currently six major sour gas producing regions and in 1982 about two-thirds of the two million tons of recovered sulphur in the U.S.A. was recovered from the Mississippi/Alabama region with the remaining supplies coming primarily from the East and West Texas sour gas fields. The two most promising areas for further discovery and development of sour gas reserves in the U.S.A. are expected to be in the Overthrust Belt in the Rocky Mountains centered around Southwestern Wyoming and -27- in the Smackover Formation which extends from East Texas through Central Mississippi and parts of the Panhandle of Florida and Southern Alabama. 4.09 The Overthrust Belt - This area currently produces about 2% of recovered sulphur from natural gas, recent exploration however has discovered considerable quantities of sour gas containing between 10-20% hydrogen sulphide. Geologists feel there may be a correlation between che sour gas fields of Western Alberta and those in the Overthrust Belt. Although the estimates for gas and sulphur recovery are large and vary from about 30-60 million tons of recoverable sulphur there will be some problems in recovering this due to the difficult nature of the terrain and the cost of drilling wells. Much will finally depend on whether gas prices will rise sufficiently to justify the large investments required. Also there is still some uncertainty about the average sulphur content of the gas in these deposits. The first two large sour gas processing plants have been built by Amoco at Whitney Canyon, Wyoming and at nearby Carter Creek by Chevron. At the beginning of 1983 these plants were in their start-up phase. The production of sulphur from these plants and further expansions in the region will depend entirely on the market for gas and in view of the uncertainty of energy pricing the bullish predictions of a year or two ago now seem unwarranted. A recent paper (Reference 4) predicts that sulphur production in the Overthrust Belt is unlikely to reach one million tons per year before 1990 at the earliest. This authoritative paper which discusses some of the technical and economic difficulties of the project is much more pessimistic than previous papers on the subject. 4.10 Smackover Formation - East Texas, Southern Mississippi, Southern Alabama and Florida Panhandle - The Smackover formation which underlays parts of several southern states in the U.S.A. contains sour natural gas. The Smackover reserves are smaller than the Overthrust reserves but there has been -28- considerable interest in their recovery due to higher sulphur prices recently. Several developments have taken place in connection with the Smackover formation in recent years and other developments are expected. The leading producers in this area are Amoco, Exxon and Shell. In Reference 2 it is estimated the deposit has the capacity to support an output of about one million tons of sulphur per year through three or four new large sour gas recovery facilities. However, further development in the area will depend essentially on whether or not new gas prices will support the investments required. Most existing reserves in the region are from shallow reserves and if there is not sufficient incentive to develop the very deep fields, sulphur recovery may peak out during the next decade. The recovery from natural gas in the U.S.A. is also discussed in Reference 5. 4.11 Petroleum Refining - Sulphur removal from crude oil is increasing in the U.S.A. and currently stands at about 2.4 million tpy, recovered from more than eighty refineries. The actual recovery capacity is much larger than this and probably will increase further in the next few years as refineries cover the possibility of having to process heavy sour crudes. Although the average sulphur content of crude being processed is expected to increase steadily through 1990 this has been offset to a large extent by the overall drop in the rate of petroleum consumption. Even so, the overall recovery of sulphur from crude oil is expected to increase over the next few years but will depend on several factors. The most important of these will be the sulphur content of sour crudes imported mainly from Mexico, Saudi Arabia and the Alaska North Slope, to replace declining sweeter indigenous crudes. This is expected to continue until crude shale oil becomes available after 1990. Also, as the demand for lighter distillates continues, more sulphur will need to be recovered. To some extent these trends for increased recovered sulphur will be -29- offset by a decreasing rate of growth for petroleum products. One factor which has caused some analysts to revise their estimates of recovered sulphur downwards is the likelihood that gas will continue to be used in power stations thus reducing the need for fuel oil for this purpose. Estimates for sulphur recovered from refineries vary significantly among the leading analysis, for example in million tpy from 2.2 (1985) and 3.7 (1992) to 3.3 (1985) and 5.0 (1992). In this review recovered sulphur from this source is forecast as 3.1 million tons in 1985 and 4.6 million tons in 1992. 4.12 U.S. Smelter Acid - Increasing regulations regarding air pollution have forced most smelters to collect S02 as sulphuric acid, so between 1970 and 1980 the sulphur value of byproduct acid has increased from about 0.5 million tons to 1.0 million tons per year. Most of the increase ret- -1ly lias been from copper smelters in the Southwest U.S.A. With increasing pressures to reduce emissions further, it is certain that recovery of sulphur from smelter acid will increase, However, the cost of meeting higher standards is high and although there will be some upgrading of the older smelters generally, it appears that the smelter industry will proceed only slowly to meet the new regulations. 4.13 Synfuels - A few years ago the rapid increase in fuel oil prices triggered a number of synthetic fuel programs based on domestic fossil fuels such as coal and oil shale, One of the byproducts of these projects is sulphur. Until recently it seemed likely that perhaps three of these projects would be operational by 1990. However in view of the decrease in world oil prices these projects will now be delayed and it is asaumed by 1992 sulphur recovery from synfuel projects will not be significant. 4.14 Flue Gas Desulphurization (FGD) - Although considerable quantities of sulphur are being emitted into the atmosphere from U.S.A. power stations, over -30- the forecast period it is assumed that the growth in sulphur recovered from this source will not increase significantly. 4.15 Overall Sulphur Situation in the U.S.A. - As the world's largest current producer, the long-term situation in the U.S.A. deserves special consideration. One of the major changes taking place in the industry is the increasing importance of recovered sulphur compared with Frasch sulphur. Proven reserves of native sulphur are limited and becoming increasingly expensive to recover. By 2000 it is expected that Frasch production will have fallen to 2 million tons of sulphur per year unless large new deposits are discovered and exploited in the meantime. Sulphur from natural gas will continue to increase until about 1990 reaching nearly 4 million tons per year but thereafter falling the as production in the Gulf area peaks out, Sulphur recovery from refineries will increase steadily through the year 2000 up to about 5.5 million tons. On present information, yearly U.S.A. sulphur production will reach a maximum of about 14.5 million tons in the mid-1990's. These forecasts, however, do not take into account new sulphur recovered from shale oil or synfuel. However it now seems that these sources are unlikely to make a significant contribution to sulphur production before the mid-1990's. The forecasts for U.S.A. sulphur are shown in Figure 7. -31- FGL. 7 NORTH AMERICA SULPHUR PRODUCTION U.S.A SULPHUR PRODUCTION RECO'VERED SULPHUR .19 FRASM UPU CANADA SULPHUR PRODUCTION 8 2| 1061 188 199 108 -32- Canada 4.16 Sulphur is recovered in Canada mainly from sour natural gas which was first produced in Alberta in 1952. The industry has grown steadily since then and in 1962 after ten years was producing one million tons per year. The industry peaked in 1973 7.2 with million tons sulphur per year, but since then there has been a steady decline to abouc 6.5 million tons (SAF) in 1982. Canada has about 16 million tons of vatted sulphur - previously recovered from sour gas in stock, which is regarded as an integral part of the Canadian supply potential. A smaller quantity of sulphur is recovered in the form of sulphuric acid from the Canadian base metal smelting industry equivalent to just under one million tons per year. 4.17 Sour Gas - Canada has been the world's largest producer of sulphur from sour gas processing for well over a decade, although output has been declining since the mid-1970's. In Alberta in 1982 production of sulphur was about 5.0 million tons and production in British Columbia from sour gas was about 200,000 tons. Sulphur production in the future in Western Canada will depend on the existing sour natural gas operations in Alberta and British Columbia, on new sour gas fields' operation in British Columbia and on sulphur recovery from Alberta's oil sands and heavy oil operations. Of these, the recovery of suilphur from sour gas in Alberta will, as in the past, remain the major source of sulphur. However the actual quantity of sulphur will continue to depend on natural gas demand, availability of sour gas and the average sulphur content of the gas. The decline in sulphur production in the last few years has been due to both falloff in demand for gas and falloff in sulphur content of the gas. Several new major gas fields which have been developed are sweet and the dilution effect of drygas injection also reduces the sulphur content of the sour gas. Most analysts predict that sulphur recovery -33- from existing Western Canada sour gas will fall off during the 1980's and this will not be completely compensated for by new fields in Alberta. There is good agreement in several independent forecasts that by 1990 the production of sulphur from sour gas will be just under 5 million tons, of which about 0.5 million tons will come from new sour gas fields (References 6 and 24). Projections of long-term sulphur production based on existing sources are given in Figure 7. 4.18 Sulphur from Oil Refining - About 0.3 million tons per year of sulphur are recovered from Canadian refineries. At one time it looked as if the prospects for larger recoveries were high if the large project for the recovery of heavy fuel oil from the Cold Lake area of Alberta is developed. This project has now been delayed and recent Central Canadian Government policy with regard to the exploitation of domestic resources and the fall in world oil prices will add further disincentives to the development of the oil sands. Although earlier forecasts for the recovery of sulphur from oil sands and heavy oil in British Colombia were very optimistic, indicating several million tons recovery by 1990, these forecasts have now been drastically modified downwards. Most of the projects have been curtailed, although there may be some expansion at existing plants which would bring production up to about 0.5 million tons per year by 1990. 4.19 Sulphuric Acid from Smelters - About 2.4 million tons of sulphuric acid equivalent to 0.8 million tons of sulphur are recovered from smelting operations and there is also a small amount of sulphur recovered as S02. About 2 million tons of sulphuric acid are produced in Eastern Canada and the remainder in Western Canada. It is expected that smelter acid production will be fairly static until about 1985/86 but after that there is the possibility of some new smelter developments; for example in Eastern Canada, where it is -34- expected that Noranda will build a zinc smelter close to their present lead smelter in New Brunswick and both Inco in Ontario and Noranda in Quebec will bring on new acid plants to meet environmental regulations. So far it has been possible to market most of the smelter acid produced in Canada near the smelters. In Western Canada the smelter acid is used to produce phosphate fertilizers and service local demands. However if supply grows there will be a supply of fatale acid which cannot be stocked and may have to compete with sulphur, forcing it into more distant markets. A review of the Canadian smelter acid situation is given in Reference 8. 4.20 Total North American Sulphur Production - Details of U.S.A. and Canadian sulphur production forecasts are given in Annex 3. The overall. forecasts for North America are given below. Table 3 - North American Sulphur Product!+ n Outlook Million Tons of Sulphur Equivalent North America 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1992 Frasch 6.35 4.21 3.20 4.20 5.00 5.00 5.00 4.00 Pyrites 0.64 0.62 0.64 0.65 0.67 0.69 0.71 0.81 Recovered Sulphur 10.13 9.86 10.50 10.98 11.63 11.93 12.22 14.10 SOF 2.02 1.65 1.73 1.81 1.90 1.99 2.08 2,61 TOTAL 19.14 16.34 16.07 17.64 19.20 19.61 20.01 21.52 Western Europe 4.21 Western Europe is an important producer of sulphur and sulphuric acid and in 1982 production was equivalent to about 7.4 million tons of sulphur. The largest producers were France with 2.0 million tons, West Germany - 1.8 million tons, and Spain - 1.2 million tons. About 3.6 million tons of sulphur were produced in the elemental form of which about 2.8 million tons were recovered from gas and the remainder from the treatment of oils. Pyrites is the raw -35- material for the second largest source of sulphur in Western Europe. Spain is the largest producer with more than 1.0 millioon tons of sulphur equivalent produced per year as sulphuric acid from pyrites. Seven other countries contribute about 1,4 million tons. About 1.5 million tons of sulphur are recovered as acid from other sources and most of this material comes from the smelting of non-ferrous metals, mainly zinc, lead and copper. West Germany is the major producer of smelter acid and smelter acid is also produced in a number of other countries. The Western European situation is reviewed in References 9 and 10. 4.22 Production of Elemental Sulphur - Almost all the elemental sulphur produced in Europe is non-discretionary recovered sulphur. France is the largest producer with about 2 million tons and most of this comes from sour gas containing about 15% H2 S from the gas field at Lacq. This field is located in the Southwest part of France and sulphur has been recovered there since 1957. Production from this operation by SNEA's (Elf Aquitaine) peaked in 1979 at about 1.94 million tons and in 1981 had fallen to 1.70 million tons. Recent projections indicate a much more rapid decline than previously reported so that by 1987 it will have fallen to about 1.0 million tons and to about 0.7 million tons by 1992. German sour gas based sulphur production reached 0.85 million tons in 1982 but fell in 1983. It is forecast however to increase again to 0.85 million in 1984 and stay there until the end of the decade. There will be a modest growth over the next few years of sulphur recovered from refineries. Oil refinery throughput in Europe has fallen over the past two years and although sulphur recovery rates have improved there was still an overall reduction of about 5% in sulphur tecovery in 1981 compared with 1980. However the reduction in oil prices and the possibility of an improvement in the economic situation together with an increasing demand for lighter products should double the -36- recovery by 1992. As indicated in the following table, the overall production of elemental sulphur will be more or less stable over the next decade. Table 4 - West European Production Outlook for Elemental Sulphur 1981 1982 1987 1992 Sulphur from Gas 2.5 2.6 1.9 1.6 Sulphur from Refineries 1.1 1.0 1.5 2.0 Total 3.6 3.6 3.4 3.6 4.23 Sulphuric Acid from Pyrites - About 30% or 2.5 million tons of discretionary sulphur production in Western Europe comes from pyrites. The most important reserves and production of sulphuric acid from pyrites is in the Southwest of the Iberian Peninsula and Spain is the largest producer. Reserves total about 340 million tons with an average sulphur content of about 46%. Most of the mines are in the Heulva area and production of crude pyrites is about 2.4 million tpy. In Portugal production of crude pyrites is about 400,000 tpy but there are plans to increase this in the next few years with two new projects which would more than double this output. One of these by SAPEC, a privately owned fertilizer manufacturer, is for the treatment of 250,000 tons of pyrites and manufacture of 310,000 tpy of sulphuric acid. Another by EMMA and Quimigal, two public corporations, is for the processing of 750,000 tons of run of mine pyrites to produce 500,000 tons of sulphuric acid with some elemental sulphur. These plants are scheduled to come on-stream in the second half of the 1980's. Sulphuric acid is produced in Italy by SOLMINE - part of the ENI group at Scarlino in the province of Tuscany. Currently about 920,000 tons of sulphuric acid are produced per year and this is being increased to 1,200,000 tpy. Pyrite -37- production in Finland is carried out by three companies - Outokumpa Oy (340,000 tpy concentrate), Myllykoski Oy (129,000 tpy concentrate) and Rautaruukki Oy (8,150 tpy concentrate). Although a good part of this capacity is due to be phased out during the 1980's, additional new capacity is scheduled to come on-stream which will more than compensate for any closures, The two Scandinavian countries Sweden and Norway account for about 16% of total Western European pyrite production. The two main producers in Sweden are Boliden Mineral AB and Stora Kopparbergs Bergslags AB. The current output is equivalent to about 600,000 tpy of sulphuric acid and reserves total about 18 million tons. Other pyrite producing countries include Turkey, Cyprus, Greece, Yugoslavia and Germany and Belgium produces sulphuric acid from imported pyrites. 4.24 Sulphur in Other Forms - The recovery of sulphuric acid by the smelting of non-ferrous metals accounts for the largest part (about 90%) of sulphur in other forms in Europe. The remainder comes from anhydrite, hydrogen sulphide, spent acid, etc. Recent papers on smelter acid (References 16 and 17) give a detailed breakdown of smelter acid production in Europe by country and metal source for 1981. Total acid produced in that year was about 3.9 million tons with the leading producers as follows: Country~ Million Tons of Sulphuric Acid West Germany 1.15 Finland 0.55 France 0°45 Belgium 0.42 Italy 0.35 Spain 0.27 Norway 0 .20 Sweden 0.20 Netherlands 0.17 Others 0.15 Total 3.91 -38- In addition to these countries about 0.5 million tons of sulphuric acid are produced from smelters in Yugoslavia. Germany is the largest producer, of zinc (18%), lead (28%) and copper (38%). France and Belgium are the next largest producers of zinc each with 15%. France has 18% of lead production and the U.K. 16%. Elsewhere than Germany, copper is produced in Spain, Norway, Sweden and Turkey all of whom have local copper ores and have installed smelter capacities. Zinc accounts for about 60% of Western Europe smelting operations and, lead accounts for 30% and copper for 10%. Over the period 1968-1981 European zinc production has grown at an average annual rate of 3.8% while refined lead and copper average growth rates amounted to 3.1% and 4.2% respectively. Due to increasing rates of S02 production the average growth rate of smelter acid production between 1968-1981 was about 5%. 4.25 Smelter acid production fell in 1982 by about 5% but is now expected to increase by about 2% per year for the next few years. It is also expected that smelter acid production's share of West European sulphuric acid production should remain around the current level. The production of sulphuric acid from pyrites and smelter gas is reviewed in References 11 through 17. 4.26 Overall Situation in Western Europe - Detailed figures on sulphur production are given in Annex 3 and summarized below. As sulphur recovered from the Lacq natural gas field decreases in the next few years the total recovered brimstone will remain static or fall slightly. The higher sulphur prices now prevailing will create an increased incentive to recover sulphur from pyrites and new projects will come on-stream in Scandanavia and the Iberian peninsula equivalent to more than one million tons of sulphur. If international prices for sulphur increase sulphuric acid from pyrites is likely to increase also. With increasing environmental regulations SOF, mainly smelter acid production, will also increase slightly. -39- Table 5 - Production Outlook for Sulphur in West Europe Million Tons of Sulphur Equivalent 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1992 Pyrites 2.52 2.44 2.51 2.63 2.76 2.91 3.02 3.63 Recovered Sulphur 3.64 3.57 3.38 3.58 3.28 3.34 3.44 3.61 SOF 1.79 1.76 1.77 1.79 1,82 1.88 1.91 2.11 Total 7.95 7.77 7.66 8.00 7,86 8.13 8.37 9.35 Oceania 4.27 This region is a relatively small producer of sulphur and nearly all of this is produced as sulphuric acid from smelter gas. In 1982 the equivalent of 185,000 tons of sulphur was produced in Oceania and all of this in Australia. About 170,000 tons of this were sulphur in other forms. Most of this acid is used in the fertilizer industry to produce phosphate fertilizers. Little change is expected in the sulphur supply situation in this region in the next decade. Other Developed Market Economies 4.28 This economic/political region includes Japan, Israel and South Africa and the supply situation for each of these countries is discussed briefly below. Country details are given in Annex 3. Very little change in the sulphur situation is expected in these countries over the next decade. 4,29 Japan - Japan is a large producer and exporter of sulphuric acid produced as SOF. There are very strict laws regarding the environment and hence very high recoveries of sulphur from smelter gases and refineries. Japan also operates several pyrite mines, although since 1968 production has fallen steadily from about 3.5 million tpy to 0.6 million tpy. The production of sulphur in Japan over the last few years is as follows: -40- Table 6 - Production Outlook for Sulphur in Japan Million Tons Sulphur Equivalent (Raw Materials) Year Smelter Gas Sulphide Ore Crude Oil Others Total 1980 1.26 0.28 1.24 0.10 1981 2.88 1.26 0.24 1.18 0.10 1982 2.78 1.26 0.23 1.04 0.10 2.63 The production of sulphur and sulphuric acid in Japan is not expected to increase and could possibly decline slowly as the smelter capacity falls slightly and also as the structure of the Japanese sulphuric acid industry changes in the next few years. 4.30 South Africa - About 75% of the 775,000 tons of sulphur equivalent recovered in South Africa is from pyrites and smelter gas, byproducts of the many mining operations in that country. There is also a large plant producing sulphuric acid from phosphogypsum at Phalaborwa, Only about 30,000 tpy are recovered as elemental sulphur from oil refining. Sulphuric acid production is forecast to increase slowly over the next few years as no major expansions of phosphate capacity are likely to come on-stream before 1988. 4.31 Israel - Although Israel produces significant quantities of sulphuric acid to support its growing phosphate industry, there is no production or recovery of sulphur materials in the country and all sulphur is imported. Developing Market Economies 4.32 The two main producing regions in the Developing Market Economies are Latin America and the Near East. There is very little production in Africa or the countries of the Far East. Latin America 4.33 This region produced about 2.26 million tons of sulphur in 1981 and about 94% of this was produced in Mexico - almost entirely as elemental -41- sulphur. Mexico is the fifth largest producer in the world after the U.S.A., Canada, U.S.S.R. and Poland. It is the only country in Latin America mining reserves using the Frasch process. The development of the oil industry is, however, becoming an increasing factor in supply. Mexico 4.34 Frasch Sulphur - Mexican sulphur is obtained from three salt domes called Jaltipan, Texistepec and Coachapa, located on the Isthmus of Tehuantepec a few miles from the port of Coatzacoalcos in the Gulf of Mexico. The Jaltipan and Coachapa deposits are exploited by Azutrera Panamericana (APSA). The first deposit has been exploited since 1954 yielding 30 million tons and has proven reserves for the next 20 years. Coachapa came on-stream only in 1981 and has not yet reached capacity. The Texistepec plant operated by the Compania Exploradora del Istmo has a production of 0.7 million tpy and is used mainly for domestic demand. Although the output from Jaltipan is expected to decline to 0.95 million tpa by 1985 and 0.75 million tpa by 1990, Coachapa is expected to increase its output to a level of 0.54 million tpa by 1990. The output of the Texistepec plant will also increase to 0.76 million tpa by 1990. Under new exploration programs it is expected that proven reserves of brimstone in the Isthmus of Tehuantepec will increase significantly to ensure that Mexico will remain an important producer in the future. The Mexican sulphur situation is described in References 18 and 19. 4.35 Recovered Sulphur - As a result of the rapidly developing oil and gas industry, recovered sulphur has Increased similarly. Future recovered sulphur will depend on the rate at which oil production increases. A recent paper from Mexican sources (Reference 19) forecasts that recovered sulphur will increase from 0.36 million tons in 1982 to 0.54 million ton.s in 1985 and then to 0.72 million tons by 1990. -42- 4.36 Sulphur in Other Forms - Recovered sulphur is forecast to come only from the copper smelting operation at La Caridad in Northwest Mexico which is expected to increase from about 0.25 million tpy in 1983 to 0.39 million tpy of sulphur equivalent by 1990. Other Latin American Countries 4.37 Other than Mexico there are no significant producers of sulphur in Latin America. Chile produces about 100,000 tons a year of sulphur, two-thirds of which is mined as elemental sulphur and the remainder is produced as sulphuric acid from smelter gases. Venezuela also produces about 100,000 tons per year recovered almost entirely from its oil industry. Table 7 - Production Outlook for Sulphur in Latin America Million Tons of Sulphur Equivalent 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1992 Frasch 1.69 1.40 1Q06 1.20 1.49 1.52 1.55 1.56 Pyrites 0.05 0.05 0.07 0.08 0.10 0.12 0.14 0.24 Recovered Sulphur 0.75 0.74 0.83 0.92 1.01 1.08 1.15 1.48 SOF 0.21 0.20 0.28 0.31 0.35 0.38 0,42 0.53 TOTAL 2.70 2.39 2.24 2.51 2.95 3.10 3.26 3.81 Near East 4.38 The sulphur situation in the Near East was recently reviewed in Reference 20 which has been used mainly as the basis for the information below. However allowance has been made for the depressed oil output situation in several countries which is affecting sulphur output at the present time. There are currently five countries producing sulphur in the Near East with a nominal capacity of 3 million tons. Production is about half of this figure and distribution constraints reduce sales by a further 0.6 million. The industry is developing rapidly with new units due to come on-stream in the mid-1980's based on sour gas in Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq and Kuwait. An increase in sulphur -43- demand is also expected in the area as new phosphate projects in Iraq, Jordan and Syria develop. However the present situation in Lebanon, Iraq and Iran makes it difficult both to forecast production and demand during the next few years. Also the future demand for petroleum products and the exact nature of the sourness of the gas are other uncertainties which make it important to be circumspect in future production forecasts. Iraq 4.39 Iraq was formerly the largest producer of sulphur in the Near East mainly from the Mishraq Frasch mine operated by the State Organisation for Minerals which before the war produced 0.7 million tpy. Iraq's other source of sulphur was from the gas-processing center at Kirkuk where about 70,000 tpy were produced. A project expansion is underway at Kirkuk to increasle capacity by about 0.5 million tpy. There are several other smaller projects being considered. Until now Iraq's main domestic market has been for the production of fertilizers at Basra but most of its sulphur production is exported. Other Near East Countries 4.40 Abu Dhabi - A 230,000 tpy sulphur recovery plant was completed in 1977 as part of the Das Island complex but due to a lower H2S content in the gas than anticipated the plant was not commissioned. However a 40 tpd sulphur recovery unit has been constructed as part of the Abu Dhabi's National Oil Companies' expansion of the Ruwais refinery. 4.41 Iran - Iran was the second largest producer of sulphur in the area before the war with Iraq. The situation is now uncertain as the two main plants at Bandar Khomeini and Kharg Island have both closed and their current status regarding war damage is not clear. Iran also produced sulphur from refineries at Abadan, Shirza, Teheran, Tabriz and Isfahon. Sulphur production in Iran -44- peaked at 525,000 tons in 1978 but fell to less than half in 1979. After a slight revival, production almost stopped following the commencement of the war in 1980. Iran had several planned projects to increase output which will now be postponed or cancelled. Although the potential for producing sulphur in Iran is very large the immediate prospects are not too good and will obviously depend on the ability to rehabilitate the industry and distribution system. It is assumed that the previous peak production figure of 1979 will not be reached again before 1989. 4.42 Kuwait - Kuwait currently produces sulphur from two units at Shuaiba and Mina Abdulla. At Shuaiba, the Kuwait National Petroleum Company (KNPC) has a plant to recover 600 tpd but current output averages about half of this level. At Mina Abdulla refinery about 20,000 tpy of sulphur are produced. There are several new projects contracted which should increase sulphur production significantly. As part of the refinery modernization and expansion programs, two 260 tpd sulphur recovery units will come on-stream by June 1984 at Mina-al-Ahmadi, and in the second unit, in the second half of the 1980's it is planned to bring on-stream a plant to recover 1,000 tpd of sulphur at the Miria Abdulla refinery. 4.43 Saudi Arabia - There are currently three plants producing sulphur from treatment of sour gases. The first plant at Berri was brought on-stream in July 1979. Although the capacity of this plant is 1,450 tpd, output is restricted at the present time by the reduced production of crude oil. A second sour gas plant was commissioned at Shedgam in 1980. Here again recent cutbacks in crude have reduced the plant output from a design capacity of 1,600 tpd to 1,000 tpd. The third souir gas plant was completed at Uthmaniyah at the end of 1981 with a capacity of 1,140 tpd. Current production is around 600 tpd. The stocks of about 1.5 million tons at Shedgum and Berri were significantly reduced during -45- 1983. There are also several new sulphur recovery units in the oil refining industry amounting to about 1,100 tpd from seven new recovery units. Although scheduled to be on-stream by 1985 it now looks as if the market for petroleum products mae cause some delay in the implementation of these projects. The projected expansion of the gas processing and refinery industries is expected to bring additional sulphur supplies in the period after 1985. 4.44 Bahrain - Bahrain Pelroleum produces about 40,000 tpy sulphur at its refinery at Awali. There is also a plan to extract sulphur from heavy oil feed which is planned to come on-stream in the second half of the 1980's. 4.45 Qatar - Qatar Petrochemical Company operates a 46,000 tpy sulphur recovery plant at Umm Said although production has so far been limited to less than 10,000 tpy because of shortage of associated gas. There are plans to bring on gas processing plants with associated sulphur recovery units equivalent to about 150,000 tpy by the late 1980's. 4.46 Syria - Syria will produce a small quantity of sulphur from two refineries and two gas treatment plants. 4.47 Overall Near East Situation - The country details of supply capability are given in Annex 3 and summarized below: Table 8 - Production Outlook for Sulphur in Near East Million Tons of Sulphur Equivalent 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1992 Native Sulphur 0.10 0.04 0.33 0.55 0.67 0.74 0.79 0.80 Recovered Sulphur 0.79 1.08 0.93 1.32 2.04 2.47 2.71 4.33 Total Sulphur 0.89 1.12 1.26 1.87 2.71 3.21 3.50 5.13 -46- Far East 4.48 Other than China and Japan which are classed under dirferent economic regions, there are no major sources of sulphur in the Far East although a large quantity of sulphuric acid is produced from imported brimstone. Only India and the Philippines produce a small quantity of acid from pyrites and smelter gas. The supply from this source is expected to increase steadily over the next few years. Table 9 - Production Outlook for Sulphur in Far East Million Tons of Sulphur Equivalent 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1992 Pyrites 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.13 0.15 0.16 0.19 Sulphur in Other Forms 0O14 0.16 0.19 0.21 0.27 0.29 0.30 0.40 Total Sulphur 0.16 0.18 0.21 0.23 0.40 0.44 0.46 0.59 Centrally Planned Economies East Europe Including U.S.S.R. 4.49 The major producers in this region are Poland and the U.S.S.R. which together produce about 30% of total world sulphur supply. In 1982 this region's output totalled about 16 million tons of which approximately 56% was brimstone, 28% was pyrites based and the remaining 16% was sulphur in other forms. In terms of the regions source, the U.S.S.R. produced 45% of total brimstone, Poland 54% and the rest only 1%. The U.S.S.R. produced 92% of the pyrites total and 72% of sulphur in other forms. The U.S.S.R. uses almost all of its domestic production internally and also imports substantial quantities of sulphur from Poland which is also a major exporter to other Comecon countries and to the West. The CPE countries overall are a net exporter of sulphur to the Market Economies. Unfortunately, detailed information on the region is scarce and is often conflicting. With regard to the numerical data, information from the -47- major independent analysts in this field has been compared and reviewed in order to obtain consistent data. Reference 21 proved a useful source of information on this region. U.S.S.R. 4.50 The U.S.S.R. has probably the world's largest reserves of sulphur ores and of pyrites, non-ferrous metal sulphides and has also a major source of recovered sulphur from gas, oil and coal. 4.51 Brimstone - The most important sulphur ore deposits are situated in the Ukraine, the Middle Volga region, Turkmenia and Uzbekistan. The Ukraine deposits are an extension of the Polish deposits and are similar in size and characteristics. Mining is carried out mainly in the vicinity of Luov extending northeast to the Polish border and south along the Upper River Dniester. At the Yavorav sulphur combine there are two separate mining operations, Yazov and Nemirov both using underground melting techniques. Production started in the late 1960's and is now reported at levels up to 005 million tons per year. The operations south of Luov are centered in the Rozdal sulphur combine which was established in the early 1960's. Mining is by open-pit operations followed by flotation. In the same areas where the overburden is large, underground melting has commenced. Production in this area is probably also in the order of 0.5 million tons per year. In the Middle Volga region, exploitation is carried out using both opencast and underground mining centered on the Solzhsh combine and current output is about 200,000 tpy sulphur. The operations in Southeast Rurkmenia extend into South Uzekistan and are centered on the Gaurdak Mining and Chemical Combine. There are several large opencast mines one of which at Vostochny has 4 capacity of more than 0.6 million tpy high grade ore, The total production of mined sulphur in the U.S.S.R. is estimated at about 2.5 million tpy of which about half is produced by direct mining and the other by -48- underground melting. The yearly recovery of brimstone is expected to increase to about 2.85 million tons by 1987 and to 3.5 million tons by 1992. 4.52 Recovered Sulphur - Recovered sulphur is becoming more important in line with the increasing exploitation of sour natural gas. The recovery of sulphur from natural gas was boosted by the commissioning of the Orenburg natural gas treatment plant in the mid-1970's. Total recovered sulphur from gas and oil in 1982 is estimated to be about 1.7 million tpy. Production however is expected to jump considerably when the new large Astrakan plant comes on-stream in 1987 which should increase recovered sulphur to more than 4 million tpy. 4.53 Pyrites - The U.S.S.R. is the world's largest producer of pyrites with nearly 10 million tons, equivalent to more than 4 million tons of recovered sulphur. Most of this output originates from mines in the Central/Southern Urals particularly Shibaievo and Gaisk which supply the bulk of the exports. Although reserves of pyrites are considerable, the transportation of the material is a serious constraint to further development. Output is expected to rise to about 4.8 million tons of sulphur equivalent by 1987 and to 5.2 million tons of sulphur equivalent by 1992. 4.54 Sulphur in Other Forms - Most of the 2 million tons of sulphur in other forms comes from the large non-ferrous metal smelting industry in the U.S.S.R. Usually non-ferrous metal smelters recover the sulphur dioxide from the smelter exit gases and are often integrated with phosphate fertilizer plants. Sulphur in other forms is also recovered from the coking industries of the Donets Basin. Poland 4.55 Poland is the third largest brimstone producer in the world almost all of which is produced by Frasch mining. Poland has an extremely important position in the international sulphur industry as it is the only producer with -49- the potential to increase its discretionary sulphur production should the market justify it. The deposits in Poland are large, extending across Southeast Poland along the Northeast slope of the Carpathian Mountains. Large scale production commenced in the 1960's initially using opencast mining and then Frasch techniques. Two mines at Grzybow and Jeziorko produce the bulk of the output. Grzybow peaked in production in the 1970's but still produces 0.8-0.9 million tpy. Jeziorko with large reserves, is the largest sulphur mine in the world, currently producing about 3.5 million tpy. In spite of the current political and economic difficulties in Poland today, Poland's production and export performance have held up well. There still remains considerable doubt, however, about the country's ability to provide the new plant and infrastructural facilities for a new mine of 3 million tpy capacity planned to come on-stream in the mid 1980's. About 120,000 tons of sulphur are recovered from metal smelters and there are also about 35,000 tpy from oil refining. Poland currently produces about 5.1 million tons of brimstone of which more than 95% is by Frasch mining. Although there are plans to increase output by 3 million tons per year by the end of the decade, in view of current problems in the country a more cautious projection of about half this expansion has been assumed in the supply forecasts. Other East European Countries 4.56 The only other countries in this region with significant production of sulphur or sulphuric acid are the German Democratic Republic and Romania. In East Germany about 90,000 tons of elemental sulphur are recovered from oil refinery gases and from lignite combustion gases. About 50,000 tons of sulphur equivalent are produced from non-ferrous metal smelting operations. The remainder of the 0.3 million tons of sulphur comes from anhydrite based sulphuric acid and ammonium sulphate. About 0.3 million tons of sulphur are -50- produced in Romania mainly from pyrites and smelter gas and 30,000 tons of sulphur are recovered from volcanic deposits in the north of the country. Table 10 - U.S.S.R. and Eastern European Production Outlook for Sulphur Million Tons of Sulphur Equivalent 1981 1987 1992 U.S.S.R. 9.74 12.45 16.90 Poland 5.00 4.77 5.81 Others 0.96 1.42 1.59 Total East Europe 15.70 18,64 24.30 Centrally Planned Asia 4.57 Little is known about the sulphur production industries in Centrally Planned Asia and it forms a relatively small part of world supply and trade. The three countries concerned are China, North Korea and Vietnam but more than 90% of production is in China. Almost all of the sulphur produced in the area is in the form of sulphuric acid derived from pyrites or non-ferrous metals. Table 11 - Asian Centrally Planned Economies Production Outlook for Sulphur Million Tons of Sulphur Equivalent 1981 1987 1992 China 2.40 3.21 3.75 Others 0.29 0.35 0.44 Total Asian C.P.E. 2.69 3,56 4.19 China 4.58 China's largest pyrites deposits are in Guangdong and Anhui but there are many small mines elsewhere. Pyrites production in 1982 was 6.2 million tons (35% S basis). Only one large sulphur deposit has been found at Shandang-Taian but its sulphur content is less than 10% and its exploitation potential has not yet been established. Sulphuric acid production was 8,2 million tons (100% H2504) in 1982. About 6 ml.lion tons was produced from pyrites (60% directly and 40% indirectly from copper lead and zinc mines), 1.3 million tons from sulphur and 1 million tons from refinery gases. Sulphuric acid production is projected to reach 11 million tpy by 1990. -52- V. WORLD SULPHUR DEMAND 5.01 The uses of sulphur have been discussed in Section IlI. It is forecast that although sulphur for the fertilizer sector will probably grow at a slightly higher rate than for the industrial sector in the next decade, there will be no basic change in the demand structure of the industry. Sulphur Requirements for Fertilizers Sulphur Requirements for Phosphate Fertilizers 5.02 The forecasts for sulphur demand for phosphate fertilizer production are based on the forecasts of supply and demand prepared by the World Bank/FAO/UNIDO Fertilizer Industry Working Group in June 1984 (Annex 6). These projections, although useful as a basis, are not sufficient alone to fix sulphur demand by region unless consideration is also made of future phosphate fertilizer trading patterns. Sulphur demand depends upon phosphate production rather than phosphate use and allowance also has to be made to the effect of stock changes in phosphate fertilizers when calculating sulphur use. Although sulphur needs can vary significantly for different types of phosphate rock it is difficult to make allowance for this when calculating sulphur consumption on a regional basis because of the diverse pattern of rock trade. The sulphuric acid requirement depends on the calcium oxide to P205 ratio in the rock and this requirement can vary from about 3.15 to 2.50, equivalent to a sulphur requirement of about 1.0 to 0.8 per ton of P205. On average it is assumed that one ton of phosphoric acid as P20S will theoretically require about 0.90 tons of sulphur and for single superphosphate, on average 0.7 tons of sulphur will be required per ton of P205. Allowance must of course also be made for the phosphate fertilizer product mix in each country which varies significantly. Several phosphate fertilizers for example such as basic slag, ground phosphate rock and some nitrophosphates do not require sulphur. = V -53- 5.03 The greatest consumption of sulphur and sulphuric acid is in the industrialized nations of North America and Western Europe but there is a rapid growth of sulphur usage in some of the developing countries who have phosphate rock resources, as the structure of the phosphate industry moves towards integrated production. 5.04 Another factor that has to be taken into account when estimating phosphate trade and hence the pattern of sulphur ore is that of phosphate fertilizer prices. For example although a country may have ample phosphoric acid and phosphate fertilizer production facilities to meet its own needs, at certain times when international phosphate prices are very low it may prefer to buy part of its needs rather than produce them domestically. This applies particularly to Western Europe at the present time, which is importing about one million tons of processed phosphates. The estimation of sulphur demand for phosphate production is thus rather complicated and for this reason is more often than not based on extrapolation of historical trends rather than detailed calculation of phosphate production. In this report, phosphate production to meet increasing demand has been estimated year by year based on new plants coming on-stream and also on changing fertilizer trading patterns. For this reason the trends of sulphur demand in different regions are not necessarily similar or a continuous function, as they take into account the introduction of relatively large new fertilizer capacity. 5.05 The most important region for phosphate fertilizer production and hence sulphur demand is North America (mainly the U.S.A.) which has about 15% of phosphate fertilizer consumption and also 55% of phosphate fertilizer trade. Although the rate of increase in domestic demand will slow down, the U.S.A. is expected to maintain its domination of the phosphate export market. In Western Europe the phosphate market is mature and will grow very slowly. In this -54- situation and with a declining export market for phosphate fertilizers from Western Europe as more competitive producers come on-stream, the demand for sulphur for phosphate fertilizers is likely to decline slowly. A similar situation exists also in Japan. The major growth area for phosphate production and hence sulphur demand will be North Africa due mainly to the new large phosphoric acid facilities in Morocco and Tunisia. Several new phosphoric acid plants in the Near East now coming on-stream will also increase sulphur usage in that region. 5.06 In the short-term, however, with depressed demand and excess capacity, the phosphate industry is going through a difficult period and particularly in U.S.A. the In 1981-83 there was a significant decline in phosphate production as both domestic and export markets fell. In addition, production was reduced to clear very large stocks of phosphate fertilizer. In Western Europe and other Developed Economies a similar trend took place. In the first half of 1983 the Payment In Kind (PIK program) depressed consumption in the U.S.A. even further but in 1984 demand is expected to pick up rapidly after poor harvest prospects due to the drought. Worldwide a small recovery is expected in 1983 and through 1987 sulphur for phosphate fertilizer production is expected to increase at about 5.1% from its low base in 1982. Forecasts are given in Annex 10 and Table 12. Sulphur Requirements for Non-Phosphate Fertilizers 5.07 The main fertilizer under this heading is ammonium sulphate although not all ammonium sulphate used as fertilizer can be included. World capacity for ammonium sulphate is about 4.5 million tpy although about one-third of this is a byproduct from caprolactam or acrylonitrile production. Some ammonium sulphate is also produced from gypsum. In order to avoid double counting of sulphuric acid which may have already been covered in the industrial sector, -55- only ammonium sulphate produced synthetically or from recovery of ammonium from cokeovens is included. A small amount of sulphuric acid is also used to produce potassium sulphate from potassium chloride and this is also included as non-phosphate fertilizer use of sulphur. In 1981 about 2.5 million tons of sulphur were used for non-phosphate fertilizer production as indicated below. Future growth in this area is uncertain as it depends on a number of factors outside fertilizer demand. It is projected that demand will increase on average about 2% per year over the next decade. Table 12 - World Sulphur Demand for Fertilizers Million Tons of Sulphur Equivalent 1981 1982 1987 1992 Phosphate Fertilizers 25.14 23.60 31.03 37.53 Non-phosphate Fertilizers 2.54 2.47 2.72 3.02 All Fertilizers 27.68 26.07 33.75 40.55 Industrial Demand for Sulphur 5.08 Little information is available for consumption of sulphur by end use in countries other than the U.S.A. In the U.S.A. the U.S. Bureau of Mines maintains detailed records of sulphur use and this information is often used by analysts in forecasting the similar consumption patterns for the other developed economies such as Western Europe, South Africa and Japan. A detailed breakdown published by the U.S. Bureau of Mines of sulphur sold or used for industrial purposes in the U.S.A. in 1981 is given in Annex 1. Industrial uses of sulphur can be grouped into several general areas as follows. -56- Current Uses New uses Ore and metal processing New and recycled paving Pulp and paper Concrete Chemicals and pigments Other Plastics and rubber Personal products Other 5.09 The outlook for industrial sulphur for current uses has been reviewed by the U.S. Bureau of Mines (Reference 22). Using 1981 as the base year and taking into account the fall in consumption in 1981 compared with 1980, it is forecast that in the U.S.A. yearly sulphur demand for current industrial uses will increase from 5.45 million tons to 7.60 million tons equivalent to an average yearly increase of 3.9%. For the world as a whole, sulphur for industrial use is forecast to increase from 23.50 million tons to 31.60 million tons between 1981 and 1990 - an average yearly increase of 3.3%. The independent forecasts of this review are in f-.ir agreement with these growth rates. In addition to the traditional uses for sulphur, several new uses of sulphur might develop in the future. The most promising of these is the development of sulphur-extended asphalt paving, sulphur concrete and other building materials. Tests carried out by the U.S. Federal Highway Administration on sulphur asphalt have been very encouraging and the potential market for this purpose in the next decade in the U.S.A. is estimated to be as much as several million tons if the price of sulphur were sufficiently competitive to replace asphalt. Most other analysts, although probably not so familiar with the potential development of sulphur as a building material are taking a more pessimistic view at this stage and are not including it to any significant extent in their forecasts. In this report also the more conservative view of demand is favored both for the U.S.A. and the world. -57- 5.10 The preliminary results for 1982 indicate that there was a fall in industrial sulphur in that year but 1983 showed a slight recovery. It is assumed that the major regions will show an annual average increase in industrial sulphur of just over 3% from 1983 onwards after a declining use in 1982. World Demand for Sulphur by Source 5.11 Details of sulphur demand by region are given in Annex 10 and are summarized for the world below. Table 13 - World Demand for Sulphur Million Tons of Sulphur Equivalent 1981 1982 1987 1992 For Fertilizers (as Sulphuric Acid) 27.7 26.1 33.7 40.6 For Industry (as Sulphuric Acid) 20.3 18.6 22.3 26.0 Use as Elemental Sulphur 5.8 5.5 6.5 7.5 Total Demand for Sulphur 53.8 50.2 62.5 74.1 5.12 Overall average demand for sulphur worldwide is projected to increase at an average yearly rate of 4.0% over the next decade. For fertilizers the average yearly rate is projected at 4.5% and although this may seem a little high it takes into account the low level of demand in the base year 1982. It also takes into account that most new capacity will be in the form of concentrated phosphates produced from rocks with relatively high specific sulphur requirements, for example Morocco and Tunisia. Total industrial sulphur including that used for both acid and directly as elemental sulphur demand is forecast to increase at an average yearly rate of 3.2% over the next decade. -58- VI. SULPHUR S2;PLY/DEMAND AND BALANCES General 6.01 The preparation and presentation of a meaningful supply demand balance for sulphur is difficult as it is made up of many components involving different courktries and industries. Some sulphur can be recovered and transported as elemental sulphur while other must be recovered directly as sulphuric acid. The marketability of these two forms of sulphur is of course quite different and cannot be equated in a world trade balance. Some sulphur is non-discretionary depending on other industrial sectors and must be recovered whatever the market for sulphur per se. Other sulphur is discretionary and the productive capacity can be adjusted to suit the market or stock situation. 6.02 In this Section the supply/demand balances are presented in two ways. The first is on a regional and world basis for sulphur in all forms. Because it is extremely difficult to establish accurate supply and demand data for the Centrally Planned Economies (CPE's) and even the best known analysts vary significantly in their views on this subject, the absolute balances must be treated with some reservation although they can be useful for predicting future trends from a given datum. The balances more commonly used in the sulphur industry are for brimstone, which is widely traded and for which in the Market Economies (ME's) there is an established data base for supply and demand. Taking into account known trade in sulphur between ME's and CPE's it is possible to forecast brimstone balances for the western world based on an assumed export capability for Eastern Europe. It is necessary however to assume that for sulphur recovered in the form of sulphuric acid and from pyrites the supply situation is equal to the demand. In the case of acid from smelter gas this assumption is reasonable but in the case of pyrites special care must be used not to overstate the discretionary production of acid. -59- 6.03 Although the conclusions to be drawn from both sets of balances are similar, and project a fairly well-balanced situation with the need to recover material from stock over the next few years, generally the balances on a world basis for sulphur in all forms are more favorable. This however is to be expected as these balances, particularly in CPE's, do not fully take into account the constraints on marketing all forms of sulphur. Two other factors probably contribute to the difference. One is that statistics on pyrites are often given in terms of mining capacity rather than use, particularly in the U.S.S.R. Another factor likely to cause some overstatement of the balances, particularly in the CPE's, is the loss factor. In North America losses are known to be small particularly from liquid sulphur and probably less than 1% which is normally included in the demand figures. In the CPE's losses of fertilizer materials are known to be high and probably account for several percentage of the production capability. For example in Eastern Europe about one million tons of sulphur out of a total of about 20 million tons production cannot be accounted for in the balances of supply/demand and imports/exports and must be regarded as losses. World Supply/Demand and Balances for Sulphur in All Forms 6.04 World balances for SAF are shown in Table 14 and the detailed regional balances are given in Annex 11. Table 14 - World Balances for Sulphur In All Forms Million Tons of Sulphur Equivalent 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1992 Productiona 53.12 50.39 50.82 54.21 57.82 59.92 61.69 72.86 Demand 53.76 50.17 52.58 55.27 57.83 60.19 62.55 74.12 Balance -0.64 0.22 -1.76 -1.06 -0.01 -0.27 -0.86 -1.26 a Excluding material from stock. -60- Total world sulphur production was 53 million tons in 1981 after reaching nearly 55 million tons in 1980. In the face of a continuing world recession, sulphur fell again sharply in 1982 to 50 iillion tons. The 1983 figures, particularly for North America, suggest that sulphur demand is now increasing again. Over the next decade demand is expected to increase by about 4.0% per year on average to reach 73 million tons by 1992. Over this period, production is projected to expand in line with demand leaving a well-balanced situation but one which will require removal of material from stock. World Supply/Demand and Balances for Brimstone 6.05 As pointed out above, world sulphur balances are useful in determining future trends in the industry, but it is the relationship between marketable sulphur supply and demand which is probably the most important factor in determining availability and world prices of sulphur. "Marketable" supply is total supply which has been adjusted to exclude that production which for logistical or technical reasons is not available on the marketplace at a competitive price. As sulphuric acid is expensive to transport, marketable supply on a world basis usually refers to brimstone. 6.06 The brimstone balances are given in Table 15 for the ME's. Net imports with the CPE's have been estimated based on previous trade data and estimates of the brimstone supply situation in Poland and the U.S.S.R. Poland exports about 2 million tons of sulphur outside the CPE's mainly to West Europe and Africa. At the same time about 0.8 million tons of sulphur is exported to CPE countries such as China and Eastern Europe from Canada, U.S.A. and Mexico. It is expected that the net imports from CPE's will increase as new mines are opened in Poland and the sulphur from gas recovery units come on-stream in the TT.S.S.R. after the mid-1980's. -61- Table 15 - Brimstone Balances for Market Economies Million Tons Sulphur 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1992 All Market Economies -1.48 -3.26 -2.52 -1.58 -1.90 -2.52 -5.48 Market Economies Imports 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.20 3.80 Market Economies Exports 0.80 0.80 0.80 0.80 0.80 0.80 0.80 Net All Market Economies 1/ -0.28 -2.06 -1.32 -0.38 -0,70 -1.12 -2.48 Net All Market Economies 2/ -0.28 -2,06 -2.32 -2.18 -2.50 -2.92 -3.28 1/ Balances assume that Frasch sulphur output in U.S,A. increases to 5.00 by 1987 and then falls to 4.00 by 1992. 2/ Assumes that Frasch sulphur remains at 1983 level of 3.20. Future Outlook for Sulphur 6.07 Before discussing the future outlook for the next five years it is important to look back a few years. After a peak surplus period in 1975 the market improved arnd by 1978 the market was balanced and inventories were sharply reduced. In 1979 the shortage of sulphur became worse with a market deficit of 1.3 million tons and, with the U.S.A. Frasch producers controlling the available main stocks, prices rose sharply. This provided the incentive to invest in remelting and forming capacity in Canada and about 1.7 million tons of remelt from this source in 1980 almost wiped out the deficit. At this stage it looked as if there would be a need to withdraw nearly 2 million tons of sulphur from Canadian vats thliLiU t-he mid-1980's. The world recession and its effect on the phosphate industry depressed demand for sulphuri, particularly in the Developed Economies and demand Lell about 2 million tons in 1981. There was however still a significant net outflow from stock in 1981. Tn 1982 demand fell even further but producers also reduced their output and as a result a smaller net quantity -62- of sulphur went out of stock. In 1983 there was a major reduction in output by the Frasch producers in the U.S.A. who in 1983 produced just over 3 million tons. Supply to meet an improving demand situation was being partly met from stock rather than by increased production, mainly from the U.S.A., Mexico, Iraq, Saudi Arabia and Canada. It is estimated that over 2.5 million tons of sulphur came out of stock in 1983 and just over 2.0 million tons of this was processed. 6.08 As indicated in Table 15 the supply/demand situation for marketable sulphur appears to be in deficit with material required from stock each year through 1992. With about 22 million tons in stock in various locations, as shown below, the industry should have no difficulty in meeting this commitment based on current forecasts of demand and production. World Sulphur Stocks - End of 1983 Western Canada 14.7 United States of America 3.0 Middle East 1.6 France 1.5 Poland 0.5 Mexico 0.3 West Germany 0.1 Others 0.5 TOTAL 22.2 It is assumed that the industry has a capability to remove at least 3.0 million tons per year from stock and this has been used in calculating the balances in Table 15, Tnv!re are several issues that might affect the supply/demand balances of Tables 14 and 15 and these are discussed briefly below. Short and Medium Term Outlook for Sulphur 1983-1993 6.09 During the next ten years the demand for sulphur is expected to exceed th;e production of sulphur by a quantity increasing each year up to about 3 million tons depending on: -63- (a) Frasch sulphur production in the U.S.A. (b) The development of new production facilities in Eastern Europe. (c) The situation in the Near East. (d) The world energy situation. (e) World demand for sulphur. 6.10 Frasch Sulphur Production in the U.S.A. - The most important short-term factor affecting sulphur balances will be the production policy of the U.S.A. Frasch producers. If there is sufficient price incentive for them to work at their supply capability, probably between 5.0-6.0 million tons per year, brimstone supplies should be adequate to meet world demands. The most important factor affecting demand for Frasch sulphur in the U.S.A. is phosphate production in Florida which is the main market for Frasch liquid sulphur. The fall off in Frasch production in 1982 and 1983 resulted from a significant fall off in Florida phosphate production. Frasch producers were not prepared to compete at low prices on the world market with Canadian sulphur and preferred to conserve their limited reserves rather than sell at limited margins. It is expected that phosphate production in Florida will recover in the next few years and this should result in an improved situation in Frasch production. 6.11 The Development of New Production Facilities in Eastern Europe - The rate at which new mines are developed in Poland will obviously have an important impact on the world sulphur situation as Poland, already a large exporter, is one of the few discretionary sources of sulphur with the potential to increase production significantly. The current problems in Poland may well cause delays in bringing on the new mine after 1985. Some reports indicate that the reserves at the existing major mines are being depleted and there may be some fall in overall production before the new mine comes on-stream. In the U.S.S.R. there -64- is a large sulphur recovery unit being built at Astrakan to recover sulphur from sour gas which should come on-stream after 1987. Although the erection of this plant is apparently proceeding reasonably well any significant delay will affect the overall world market in the late 1980's. 6.12 The Situation in the Near East - The war between Iran and Iraq had a serious impact on sulphur production in these countries and has reduced exports from the area by more than half a million tons per year. Both of these countries have large sulphur resources and could make a large contribution to the world's sulphur supply when the situation between the two countries improves. 6e13 The World Energy Situation - The production estimates in this review take into account that the regression in energy use experienced recently will have an impact on recovered sulphur production. These include the developments of the Overthrust Belt in the U.S.A., the heavy oil and tar sands of Western Canada, the synfuel projects in the U.S.A. and sulphur recovery from gas and oil in the Near East. If the demand for energy improves more quickly than anticipated this could improve the supply situation for sulphur. 6.14 World Demand for Sulphur - The most important factor in considering the future situation and most undoubtedly the most difficult to assess is world sulphur demand. In this review sulphur demand overall for industrial and fertilizer use has been assessed at about 4%. Obviously these two markets depend on many different and often intangible factors so it is important to appreciate the effect that variations in this assessment could have on the overall balances. This is shown below: -65- Percentage increase in demand 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.8 3.9 4.0 4.1 4.2 4.3 World production - million tons 1992 72.9 72.9 72.9 72.9 72.9 72.9 72.9 72.9 72.9 World demand - million tons 1992 70.8 71.5 72.1 72.8 73,6 74.3 75.0 75.7 76.4 If suilphur increases at 3.8% per year on average over the next ten years rather than 4.0%, production will be able to meet demand without the need for stock withdrawal. If on the other hand it grows at 4.3% (a more unlikely situation) stocks will be depleted by about 1990. 6.15 Overall View - Taking these various coiasiderations into account it appears that even in a pessimistic scenario there should be sufficient sulphur supply throughout the 1980's to meet demand but prices will rise steadily as the need to withdraw from stocks increases, On the other hand an optimistic scenario would assume that a modest improvement in sulphur prices would be sufficient to induce Frasch producers to return to tnte 5 million ton per year level and there would be some improvement in recovered sulphur particularly from the Near East, Even so it will be necessary to remove some sulphur from stock until hopefully the new production facilities come on-stream in Eastern Europe at the end of the decade. The Long Term Outlook for Sulphur 1990-2000 6.16 Although it is very difficult to forecast the long-term future of sulphur supply and demand, for new phosphate producers investing heavily in new facilities and dependent on a steady flow of sulphur to meet their needs, this issue may be critical. Based on the fact that the second half of the 1980's and early 1990's will probably see an increasing quantity of sulphur withdrawn from existing stocks, the future prospects of meeting demand when these stocks are depleted must be a matter for concern. Although North American sulphur production is expected to increase until the early 1980's, as recovered sulphur -66- production levels off and Frasch reserves are depleted, the overall U.S.A. production will start to decline in the mid-1990's unless large new sources of sulphur are exploited. In Canada also unless there is a major effort in the 1990's to recover sulphur from tar sands, production will also decline. Europe will also see declining production of brimstone as the Lacq reserves in France are depleted although recovered sulphur and Frasch sulphur in the Near East should increase. 6.17 The main prospects of meeting increasing demand as discretionary sulphur will be in Poland and the U.S.S.R. and much will depend on the development of new mines in these countries. The U.S.S.R. is also expected to significantly increase its production of sulphur from sour gas. The 1990's therefore will probably see a continuation of the trend that started in the 1980's of Eastern Europe taking over from North America as the main producing and exporcing region. 6.18 Although it is doubtful that these exports alone will be able to meet new sulphur needs in the rest of the world in the 1990's several other factors have to be taken into account in assessing the situation. The first is that the rate of increase in phosphate demand is likely to decline steadily as many phosphate markets reach maturity. It is likely that there will be several new discoveries of native sulphur reserves and an increase in production from existing reserves such as Iraq. The increasing demand for energy will see increasing sulphur supplies from oil and gas in the Near East and elsewhere and from new projects such as synfuels, coal gasification and recovery of oil from tar sands. Tougher regulations to remove sulphur from flue gas emmisions couid make a significant contribution to sulphur supplies in the longer-term. 67- 6.19 It is also important to realize that there is no shortage of sulphur in the world but rather a question of economic price of source. For many years in the past when brimstone was relatively expensive the production of sulphuric acid was based mainly on pyrites. There remain large reserves of pyrites in many countries of the world and undoubtedly a severe shortage of brimstone in the 1990's with resulting high prices could well stimulate the increasing use of pyrites particularly when processed with new technology now being developed to recover elemental sulphur from pyrites. 6.20 More than half the world's sulphur demand is for fertilizer production and although sulphuric acid is the traditional and generally most economic mineral acid used for producing fertilizers there are other alternatives, There is little doubt that if a chronic long-term shortage of sulphur develops, the fertilizer industry will develop its processing techniques accordingly. -68- VII. SULPHUR AND SULPHURIC ACID TRADE 7.O1 Sulphur is a material which has been traded for many centuries, initially for the manufacture of gun powder, followed by a growing demand from a developing chemical industry at the end of the eighteenth century and then from the middle of the nineteenth century, for the manufacture of phosphate fertilizers. Because sulphur resources are concentrated in a few major sources, e.g., U.S.A., Canada, Mexico, Poland and the Middle East, and the demand for sulphur is increasing worldwide as many countries develop their chemical and fertilizer industries, the trading patterns for sulphur are constantly widening. Brimstone Trade 7.02 Detaila,^ of brimstone trade for 1982 are given in Annex 12. These figures show that of about 31.76 million tons of total trade, 17.30 million tons of brimstone were delivered domestically and about 14.46 million tons exported. This is less than the previous year when 34.36 million tons of material were traded, 18.81 domestically and 15.55 exported. The main exporters are: Table 16 - Million Tons Sulphur Exported Country 1981 1982 Canada 7.14 Po±and 6.00 3.82 3.97 Mexico 1,19 U.S.A. 1.04 1.39 0.96 France 0.95 Others 0.68 1.06 1.81 TOTAL 15.55 14.46 -69- The major importing countries were: Table 17 - Thousand Tons Sulphur Imported 1981a 1982b Developed Market Economies U.S.A. 2,321 1,910 United Kingdom 935 814 France 576 491 Australia 568 425 South Africa 552 599 Holland 459 374 Italy 441 266 Belgium 432 323 Developing Market Economies India 922 954 Morocco 877 976 Brazil 806 860 Tunisia 770 819 South Korea 381 427 Centrally Planned Economies U.S.S.R. 997 1,145 Czechoslovakia 537 486 Romaiiia 457 271 China 232 396 a Reference: IFA Final Sulphur and Sulphuric Acid Statistics 1981. b Reference: Fertecon Quarterly Sulphur June 1983. Sulphur Export Associations 7.03 Canada - Cansulex Limited, the Canadian Sulphur Export Organization, was formed in 1962. The organization is the exclusive offshore marketer of sulphur on behalf of its eighteen shareholding members. Cansulex handles all the logistical, financial, legal and administrative tasks involved in moving its members' sulphur from the production plants in Alberta to world markets. Exports to the U.S.A. are dealt with by the members individually. The organization has grown in recent years and during 1982 exported about 2.26 million tons, 47% of Canadian offshore exports and representing approximately 15% of internationally traded sulphur. The remaining 53% of Canadian offshore exports were sold by six independent companies - Shell Canada, Amoco, Petrosul, -70- Delta Marketing, Canadian Superior and PV Commodities. U.S.A. - Amsulex, The American Sulphur Export Corporation, coordinates the offshore exports of two out of the three major Frasch sulphur mining companies. The organization consists of Duval Sales Corporation and Freeport Minerals Company and was formed early in 1982 following the breakup of SULEXCO which consisted of Freeport and Texasgulf, Inc. SULEXCO's disolution was brought about by the takeover of Texasgulf by Ste Nationale Elf Aquitaine of France. Amsulex is free to compete in all offshore sulphur markets but concentrates its efforts in Northwest Europe and South America. The remainder of sulphur exports from the U.S.A., mainly from recovered sulphur from a variety of locations, is handled by independent traders. Poland - Exports from Poland are handled by the state sulphur marketing organization, Ciech Siarkopol. Poland comes only second to Canada in volume of exports. France - Sulphur sales from France are through the main producer, SNEA (P) - (Elf Aquitaine). Mexico - Frasch sulphur is exported through Azufrera Panamericana (a government owned marketing agency). Recovered sulphur is sold by PEMEX, the Government petroleum company. Saudi Arabia - This country has recently become a major exporter of sulphur recovered from gas and oil and is likely to become more important in the future. Three outside companies, Texasgulf, Devco and Boliden in association with Saudi interests have acquired the marketing rights through mid-1984. Japan - Exports several hundred thousand tons a year of sulphur and sulphuric acid through private traders. AcidMSulphuric Trade 7.04 Most of the sulphuric acid traded internationally is produced as a -71- by-product of base metal sulphide ore smelting, in areas where there is inadequate local demand. Additional trade is based on acid from pyrites but only a small amount of acid produced from brimstone. Sulphuric acid trade for the countries in the Market Economies are summarized below. Table 18 - Market Economies Sulphuric Acid Trade Thousand Tons 100% Sulphuric Acida Imports Exports West Europe 1,478 1,779 Belgium 524 113 France 143 185 Netherlands 247 201 Norway - 167 Turkey 196 West Germany 40 848 Others 328 265 Africa 247 _ Asia 196 639 Japan - 637 Others 196 2 Latin America 658 _ Mexico 430 Others 228 Oceania 15 North America 447 578 Canada 83 338 U.S.A. 364 240 MARKET ECONOMIES 3X041 2,996 a Reference: IFA Final Sulphuric Acid Statistics 1981. Trade Associations and Distributors for Sulphuric Acid 7.05 The major worldwide distributors include Sulphur A.G. and Interacid both in Switzerland; Metallgesellschaft in West Germany (who also handle the sales of brimstone in Germany), Boliden Intertrade A.B. in Sweden and Canadian Industries Limited in Canada. The distributors provide marketing services, a -72- network of supplies and consumers, integrated distribution facilities. There are large acid terminals in Antwerp and Rotterdam. Because of transportation costs, trans-oceanic and inter-regional trade in sulphuric acid is limited. The major originating points in international trade are Nothwest Europe, North America and Japan. The principal consuming regions are North and South America and West Europe. Pyrite Trade 7.06 In 1981 pyrites equivalent to about 11.34 million tons of sulphur were delivered but of this only about 0.66 million tons represented exports. The main exporters are Norway, Spain and the U.S.S.R. and most pyrites are used in Western and Eastern Europe. Table 19 - Pyrite Trade 1981 Thousand Tons Sulphur Equivalent Exporting Countries Total Home Total Deliveries Delivery Imports Cyprus Norway Spain U.S.S.R. Others World Total 11,344 10,682 662 16 107 156 225 161 All Market Economies 4,177 3,729 448 12 101 155 52 131 West Europe 2,476 2,103 373 10 83 155 52 73 Africa 655 580 75 2 18 - - 58 As"a 350 350 - - - - - North America 647 647 South America 49 49 ------ All CPE's 7,167 6,953 214 4 6 1 173 30 U.S.S.R. 3,797 3,797 ------East Europe 781 567 214 4 6 1 173 30 Others 2,589 2,589 ------73- VIII. PRODUCTION COSTS FOR SULPHUR AND SULPHURIC ACID Production Costs for Frasch Sulphur 8.01 Frasch sulphur forms an important component of discretionary sulphur supply and is produced in the U.S.A., mainly by Duval, Freeport and Texasgulf; in Mexico by Azufrera Panamericana and by state owned companies in Poland and Iraq. It is difficult to obtain reliable reserve and production cost data from the major Frasch producers who regard this information as highly confidential although it is possible from the annual report and other general information from these companies to gain a general impression of their operations. However one U.S.A. consultant company with experience available on the Frasch industry has prepared several multi-client studies on this subject, the most recent in 1981. The company - Manderson Associates - has given permission to use this information (Reference 2) in the preparation of this report and a summary is contained in Annex 13. Other information on the industry has been obtained from Reference 23 and from private sources which has helped to bring this information up to date. 8.02 The technology of Frasch sulphur production is described in Section III A. Native sulphur can be recovered from underground deposits by pumping hot water into the deposit to melt the sulphur and then bringing the molten sulphur to the surface. The two main components of cost are therefore the energy required and the specific investment which is also related to the size of the deposit. In the U.S.A., royalty payments are also often an important cost item. Annex 13 contains cost estimates for the three major U.S.A. producers and it can be seen that there is considerable variation between these costs depending on the size of the operation energy cost, etc. In order to obtain a more general cost model which can be used for projecting future price levels an average production figure has been calculated for the three main U.S.A. -74- producers and is given in Table 20. The costs have been adjusted to 1983 U.S. dollars. Based largely on this information and also on discussions with representatives from the Frasch industry a cost model has also been constructed for a typical new Frasch sulphur mine assuming that new deposits are discovered which would be sufficient to justify a mine of 1 million tons of sulphur per year. This information is given in Table 21 and some comments on the costs are given below. 8.03 Fuel Costs - Usually hot water needs can vary from about 2000 gallons per ton of sulphur recovered up to 5000 gallons although some deposits may require significantly more. The energy req-uired to recover one ton of sulphur is therefore within the range of 5-15 million BTU per ton of sulphur recovered. It is expected that as newer and less rich deposIts are exploited the energy needs will increase somewhat. Based on the information in Annex 14 it has been calculated that the average energy consumption in 1983 was about 8 million BTU per ton of sulphur recovered. It is assumed however that for a new project the specific energy consumption would be 10 million BTU. In 1983 it was also astimated that the mean gas price was about $3.0 but it is expected that this price will increase in real terms as gas prices are deregulated. It is assumed that any.new plant constructed today would have a gas price of $4.0. If oil and energy prices increase significantly in real terms from their present level these figures would need to be adjusted accordingly. Coal or lignite can be considered as an alternative for heating water but this would not necessarily represent a cheaper source of energy in view of the additional pollution controls needed. 8,04 Labor and Supervision - Labor needs in the Frasch sulphur industry are discussed in Reference 23 and these indicate that the productivity of mines do vary considerably depending on size of mine and company. The average of labor -75- and supervision cost for the U.S.A. estinated from the information in Annex 14 updated to 1983 has been taken as typical of future needs for a new mine. 8.05 Royalty Assessments - Royalty payments for the sulphur industry are based on both a flat rate and on percentage of profits. Royalty payments in the future are based on the assumption that they would be equivalent to about 15% of FOB mine costs. 8.06 Investment Cost - It is assumed (based on industry information) that a new plant with supporting transport and storage facilities for a mine of 1 aillion tons per year would cost up to $150 million. 8.07 Transport Cost - Present transport costs to a port vary from $2/ton to $13/ton and costs for any new mine would of course depend on its location. An $8/ton charge has been assured for a new mine. 8.08 Total Production Costs and Realization Prices - The average figures for 1983 indicate that without royalty the FOB mine cost is about $55/ton and with transport the average FOB production cost Gulf coast port is probably about $63/ton. Allowing 15% of the mine price for royalty, the average breakeven production cost FOB Gulf port would be about $72 per ton. Production costs however from mine to mine can vary about 50% so that there would also be a ralge of breakeven costs say roughly $60 to $85/ton FOB Gulf port. One other factor which has to be taken into account in assessing the production costs of Frasch sulphur is the effect of working at reduced rates on operating costs. As the production rates are reduced the relative overhead costs will go up. Also the effect of gradually increasing energy costs on existing mines through the next five years is likely to see an increase in costs on average of about $10/ton of sulphur produced; in real terms. In the five years thereafter, increasing energy costs will increase production costs for sulphur by about another $5/ton. It is therefore expected that at prices below about $85/ton FOB Gulf -76- port there will be a significant reduction in Frasch sulphur production. It is also forecast that in order to maintain Frasch production in the U.S.A. at the levels assumed in this review of 5 million tons by 1987 and 4 million tons by 1992 prices will have to be maintained well above $85/ton FOB. In the event that new large deposits of Frasch sulphur are discovered the realization price to entice new investment to exploit these de&. ;;its would need to be about $115/ton FOB U.S. Gulf port. -77- Table 20 - Estimated Average U.S.A. Frasch Sulphur Production Cost 1983 for Duval, Freeport and Texasgulfa 1983 Production Costs 1/ $/ton Fuel 23.7 Labor and Supervision 8.4 Equipment and Supplies 10.7 Depreciation 2.7 Property Taxes and Insurance 2.0 Severance Tax 1.0 Selling, General and Administration 6.4 Production Cost Excluding Royalty or Irofit Element 54.9 Freight 8.0 TOTAL 62.9 a Based on Reference 2. Table 21 - Estimated U.S.A. Frasch Sulphur Production for a New Mine In 1983 Constant Dollars Per Ton 1983 Production Costs 2/ $/ton Fuel 40.0 rising to 50.0 Labor and Supervision 8.0 Equipment and Supplies 6.0 Depreciation 7.5 Property Taxes and Insurance 2.0 Severance Tax 1.0 Selling, General and Administration 6.4 Production Cost FOB 70.9 Capital Charge 15% 22.5 Realization Price FOB Ex-mine 93.4 Royalty Payment at 15% of Selling Price 14.0 Total Realization Price 107.4 Basis Production Mill. Tons/year 1.0 Water Ratio (Gallons per ton) 4000 Fuel Ratio (MM/ton) 10 Fuel Cost $/MM BTU 4 Investment Cost of Plant, Transport and Storage Facilities $ Million 150 Delivery Charge to Port $8/ton Estimated FOB Price Gulf Port $115. 4/ton 1/ Without capital charge to cover profit. 2/ Includes annual capital charge of 15% of investment to cover profit. -78- Comparative Production Costs for Sulphuric Acid Manufacture for Various Feedstocks 8.09 Almost all sulphur which is consumed by industry and in the production of fertilizers is in the form of sulphuric acid, About 61% of sulphuric acid produced is from brimstone, about 21% from pyrites and about 18% from SOF mainly smelter gases. Only a small quantity of this is recovered from gypsum or anhydrite. An outline of the technology required for each process route is given in Section III and normally the use of brimstone is considered to be the most economic and simple. The handling of the feed material is easy, investment and operating costs are relatively low and there are no troublesome byproducts to worry about. In some cases however, depending on location and if sulphuric acid can be produced and used near the mine, the use of pyrites may be an acceptable route. In rare cases the production of sulphuric acid from gypsum may be economic if fuel is very cheap and byproduct clinker cement is in demand at a high price. As the price of sulphur has escalated in the last year or two increased interest has focussed on producing sulphuric acid from alternative discretionary sources. The comparative costs of sulphuric acid from brimstone, pyrites and phosphogypsum have been reviewed in this section for various costs of feedstocks and credits for byproducts. The detailed costs are given in Annex 14. Sulphuric Acid Manufacture from Brimstone 8.10 Brimstone is normally the preferred raw material for sulphuric acid when it is available at reasonable cost. Sulphur is either provided in the liquid or the solid form although in the cost comparison it is assumed that solid raw material is used. About 0.33 ton of sulphur is required to produce one ton of 100% sulphuric acid and normally about 1,15 tons of steam are recovered per ton of sulphuric acid. A credit of $19 has been allowed per ton -79- of sulphuric acid produced, assuming oil at $200/ton. Table 22 shows the relationship between sulphuric acid production costs for various sulphur and energy prices (expressed as $/ton of fuel oil). Table 22 - Realization Price for Sulphuric Acid from Brimstone for Varying Oil and Sulphur Prices $/ton Oil Price Sulphur Prices CIF Factory $/ton $/ton 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 100 50.3 56.9 63.5 70.1 76.7 82.8 89.9 96.5 120 48.4 55.0 61.6 68.2 74.8 8.1.0 88.0 94.6 140 46.5 53.1 59.7 66.3 72.9 79.2 86.1 92.7 160 44.5 51.1 57.7 64.3 70.9 77.3 84.1 90.7 180 42.6 49.2 55.8 62,4 69.0 75.5 82.2 88.8 200 40.7 47.3 53.9 60.5 67.1 73.7 80.3 86.9 220 38.8 45.4 52.0 58.6 65.2 71.9 78.4 85.0 240 36.9 43.5 50.1 56.7 63.3 70.1 76.5 83.1 260 34.9 41.5 48.1 54.7 61.3 68.2 74.5 81.1 280 33.0 39.6 46.2 52.8 59.4 66.4 72.6 79.2 300 31.1 37.7 44.3 50.9 57.5 64.6 70.7 77.3 8.11 Brimstone is the most important cost item in producing sulphuric acid and at the present time is more than 90% of the production costs and about 66% a.;'the reali'7ation price needed to justify a new project. As the overall process is exothermic and there is a credit for recovered steam, the process benefits from increasing oil prices because of the increasing value of the byproduct steam. The investment cost for a 1000 tpd sulphuric acid plant including essential offsites is $35.0 million. Sulphuric Acid Manufacture from Pyrites 8.12 Although there are abundant resources of pyrites throughout the world the main disadvantage of using this feed material is the high investment cost which is about 100% higher than for sulphuric acid produced from brimstone. This is due mainly to the additional expenses required for roasting and gas cleaning. Although some references indicate 2:6 as the ratio of investment -80- costs for a pyrites to a brimstone plant, recent costs for pyrites plants from Finland and Spain support a ratio of about 2:1. In the base case a figure of $20/ton has been assumed for pyrites containing 46% S as this is regarded as a typical price at the present time. No credit has been given for the recovery of cinders from the process although it is appreciated in certain cases it may be possible to get a credit of about $10 per ton of cinders equivalent to a credit of $7 per ton of ore or about $5 per ton of sulphuric acid. The steam credit is a little higher than the case for brimstone. The plant investment cost for a 1,000 tpd sulphuric acid plant burning pyrites is $71 million. The effect of pyrites and oil prices on the realization price for sulphuric acid are shown in Table 23. Table 23 - Realization Price for Sulphuric Acid Produced from Pyrites for Varying Oil and Pyrite Prices - $/ton Oil Price Pyrites Prices CIF Factory $/ton $/ton 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 100 74.1 81.7 89.3 96.9 104.5 112.1 119.7 127.3 120 72.0 79.6 87.2 94.8 102.4 111.0 117.6 125.2 140 69.9 77.5 85.1 92.7 100.3 107.9 115.5 123.1 160 67.8 75.4 83.0 90.6 98.2 105.8 113.4 121.0 180 65.7 73.3 80.9 88.5 9641 103.7 111.3 118.9 200 63.6 71,2 78.8 86.4 94.0 101.6 109,2 116,2 220 61.5 69.1 76.7 84.3 91.9 99.5 107.1 114.7 240 59.4 67.0 74.6 82,2 89.8 97.4 105.0 112.6 260 57.3 64.9 72.5 80.1 82.7 95.3 102.9 110.5 280 55.2 62.8 70.4 78.0 85.6 93.2 100.8 108.4 300 53.1 60.7 68.3 75.9 83.5 91.1 98.7 106.3 Sulphuric Acid Manufacture from Phosphogypsum 8.13 The basic process using natural gypsum/anhydrite known as the Muller-Kuhn process was developed in Germany during World War I and a number of plants based on this route came into operation afterwards. There was increased interest in the process in the 1960's when sulphur prices rose and particularly -81- in using waste phosphogypsum. The most successful development was in Austria at Chemie Linz. Subsequently a large plant was built in Phalabarwa in South Africa using the Chemie Linz process. The process produces approximately equal quantities of cement and sulphuric acid and depends therefore on an adequate market for cement clinker. The advantage of the process is that the phosphogypsum is automatically available at a phosphoric acid plant at no cost and where there is a demand for the sulphuric acid. However the process is very high in investment costs - about $127 million and the energy requiremeuts are high. The realization price for sulphuric acid produced from phosphogypsum is shown in Table 24 for a range of fuel costs and cement clinker credits. Table 24 - Realization Price for Sulphuric Acid Produced from Phosphogypsum for Varying Oil Prices and Cement Clinker Credits - $/ton Oil Price Cement Clinker Credit $/ton 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 100 135.3 125.3 115.3 105.3 95.3 85.3 75.3 65.3 120 140.0 130.0 120.0 110.0 100.0 90.0 80.0 70.0 140 144.7 134.7 124.7 114.7 104.7 94.7 84.7 74.7 160 149,4 139.4 129.4 119.4 109.4 99.4 89.4 79.4 180 154e1 144.1 134.1 124,1 114.1 104.1 94,1 84.1 200 158.8 148.8 138.8 128.8 118,8 108.8 98.8 88.8 220 163.5 153.5 143.5 133.5 123.5 113.5 103.5 93.5 240 168,2 158.2 148,2 138.2 128.2 118.2 108.2 98.2 260 172.9 162.9 152.9 142.9 132.9 122.9 112,9 102.9 280 177.6 167.6 157.6 147.6 137.6 127.6 117.6 107,6 300 182.3 172.3 162,3 152.3 142.3 132,3 122.3 112.3 Comparison of Production Costs 8,14 The present CIF price of sulphur within the last few years has normally fallen within the range $120-160/ton and for fuel oil between about $180-220/ton. On this basis the selling price of sulphuric acid from a new plant based on brimstone would probably have to fall within the range of $55-75 per ton to justify the new investment. In order to compete with this range of -82- prices it would be necessary to have pyrites available at the plant at less than $25/ton. For the phosphogypsum process assuming cement clinker from the process to be worth about $40-60/ton the realization price of sulphuric acid would fall within the range of $110-130 per ton. It is clear from these comparisons that whereas sulphuric acid produced from pyrites may be competitive with sulphuric acid from brimstone in certain cases it would be only in very rare circumstances that there could be a case for producing sulphuric acid from phosphogypsum. As the major cost element in this process is energy, with the possibility of increases in the real prices of energy in the future the economics of sulphuric acid from phosphogypsum are not likely to become more favorable. As pyrites however can offer an alternative source of discretionary sulphur to brimstone a more detailed comparison is made in Figure 8. -83- FIG8 COMPARISON OF SULPHURIC ACID REALIZATION PRICES FOR VARYING SULPHUR AND PYRITES PRICES 1a, 90- 40- e- s89 5790 2 aUPU 20 sPI 40 PYRITES PRICE $ PER TON lss- 9- Qes- se-/ SULP" PRICI S PER TON -84- IX. SULPHUR PRICES General 9.01 Sulphur prices are usually quoted on several bases as follows: Export Basis The U.S. Gulf (FOB U.S. Gulf port) - prices are quoted here mainly for Frasch based sales to the U.S.A. and export markets. The largest single market is Tampa, Florida, the main port for the U.S.A. phosphate industry which handles liquid sulphur only. Canada (FOB Vancouver) - This is the export point for Canadian sulphur to export markets in Europe, Africa and Asia. The sulphur is sold mainly in slated form so the principal U.S.A. market is excluded. The Alberta price for sulphur is the Vancouver price less rail freight. For molten shipments to the U.S.A. the additional cost of remelt must be added. Poland (FOB Gdansk) - The export port for Polish Frasch sulphur. Middle East (FOB Gulf port) - Middle East sulphur at an increasing rate is shipped from several Gulf ports. Delivered Basis Tampa - Most material here is U.S.A. Frasch but small amounts also come from Mexico and Canada. The market is limited to molten sulphur which along with terminal ownership limits this market. Mediterranean - This is essentially for solid bulk sulphur and includes Southern Europe with prices linked to Safi in Morocco. Both recovered and Frasch sulphur are available. Northwest Europe - This market includes European, Polish, U.S.A. and Mexican producers. Frasch and recovered sulphur in both solid and liquid forms are available. Historical price data are given in Annex 15 and sitown also in Figure 9. -85- Historical Prices 9.02 Like the fertilizer market, sulphur prices vary cyclically and peaking took place in 1968, 1975 and 1983. The most comprehensive historical information available on sulphur pricing is for the U.S.A. Gulf area. Also as the U.S.A. Frasch producer will remain the main discretionary marginal producer for some time both U.S.A. Gulf and Vancouver prices have been used as the basis for this analysis. Historical sulphur prices in Figure 8 show that in 1983 constant U.S. dollar terms, sulphur prices FOB Gulf port since 1970 have varied cyclically between $/9 and $130 with an average of $76, A major market change had already taken place in the late 1960's when sulphur was in short supply and prices increased from about $79 to $133 FOB mine, a very similar phenomenon to what occurred in 1979/80. Sulphur prices peaked again in the mid-J1W70's during the fertilizer crisis at that time, but the relative increases were much smaller than for phosphate fertilizer prices at the same time. This was probably due to the fact that there was a surplus balance of about 2 million tons of sulphur prevailing. In 1978 a balanced situation was reached again, prices in the spot market hardened above contract prices and there was probably a shortfall in supply of about 1 million tons which was taken out of producers' and consumers' stocks. In 1979 the market remained in a deficit situation and prices rose steadily. There was a healthy demand from phosphate producers particularly in the Developing Market Economies and a number of factors such as bad weather, transport mishaps and industrial disputes constrained production. Also no new major production sources came on-stream. 9.03 At this time the.U.S.A. Frasch producers controlled the only large stockpiles capable of meeting growing demand. Although considerable stocks exist in Canada, additional facilities for remelting and forming this material had to be installed before it could enter the market in 1980. In 1980 about 1.7 -86- million tons were reportedly taken from Canadian vatted stocks which almost completely wiped out the market deficit. All of this material would not have been needed and the rise in prices would have been checked but for the fact that the Iran-Iraq war cut off a major source of sulphur from the Arabian Gulf. 9.04 In 1981 further Canadian withdrawals from stock of about 2.4 million tons brought the market into surplus with a balance of more than 1 million tons. Even so, prices reached an all time high of $140/ton as many producers feared that suppliers' stocks would have to be rundown to meet demand. 9.05 The continuing stagnation of phosphate demand as well as inaustrial demand throughout 1981 due to the world recession reduced demand by about 2 million tons by the end of the year and the consumers were in a much stronger bargaining position. There was also considerable pressure for reduced prices from phosphate producers who felt that sulphur had risen to unreasonably high levels during a period when phosphate fertilizer prices had dropped dramatically. Sulphur demand fell again in 1982, by about 3 million tons but supply was also reduced significantly, mainly by the U.S.A. Frasch producers whose production fell from 6.4 million tons in 1981 to 4.2 million tons in 1982. As a result of these changes for the first time in several years sulphur production and demand were fairly well balanced and only about 0.3 million tons were needed from the large stocks prevailing. During 1982 sulphur prices fell from about $130/ton to $115/ton. Production was reduced again in 1983 but demand was adequately met by stock reductions mainly from the U.S.A. Frasch producers, Mexico, Iraq, Saudi Arabia and Canada. More than 2.5 million tons of sulphur were removed from stock in 1983 of which about 2.0 million tons was processed to meet demand and the remainder went to build up phosphate producers' stocks in anticipation of increased demand in 1984. During the first half of -87- 1983 sulphur prices continued to fall but levelled out in the second half of the year at about $100/ton FOB Gulf and about $85/ton Vancouver. Future Price Forecasts 9.06 The estimates of brimstone supply and demand indicate that marketable sulphur will be well balanced duri-ng the next five years and possibly during the next ten years as indicated in Tables 14 and 15. Although considerable amounts of sulphur will be required from stock each year, this will be within the capability of existing stock levels and melting capacity and should therefore not put an undue strain on the market. 9.07 Canada could of course reduce its offtake from stocks in the hope of maintaining a balanced situation but in view of the relatively large stocks elsewhere and small deficit this is not considered likely. A relatively stable price situation should prevail over the next few years and the price will be determined mainly by the cost of producing Frasch sulphur as well as the level of production in tLie U.S.A. 9.08 Although there is a potential supply capabilitv of about 5-6 million tons of Frasch sulphur in the U.S.A., producers have already demonstrated their flexibility in reducing capacity to market needs and prices. Also proven reserves are limited to 66 million tons (Reference 3) although the extent of these also depend on prices. The major market for Frasch sulphur in the U.S.A. is the Florida Phosphate Industry. Sulphur is supplied in liquid form through the Port of Tampa and this does not suffer competition from Vaiicouver which exports sulphur only in solid form. The significant fall in phosphate production in Florida in 1982 and 1983 obviously had a serious impact on the market for Frasch sulphur. Rather than compete further with Vancouver sulphur in the world market which would have reduced prices and margins to unacceptable levels, however, Frasch producers reduced output. As indicated earlier some -88- Frasch producers would need at least $85/ton to break even and spot prices of sulphur U.S.A. Gulf ports had fallen to this level although contract prices remained about $20/ton higher. 9.09 The short-term outlook for prices will depend to a large extent on the supply availability from U.S.A. Frasch producers and the price that they are willing to accept in order to maintain production. The forecasts for supply availability in this review assume that after a low level of production in 1983 of just over 3.0 million tons, Frasch production will increase to 4.2 million tons in 1984 and 5.0 million tons by 1987. Thereafter Frasch production declines to 4.0 million tons by 1992. If these production levels are not met the shortfall will have to be made up from stocks. If relatively large quantities are required sulphur prices will depend increasingly on the willingness and ability of the Canadian producers to meet this need by remelting. 9.10 Taking these and other factors into account it is judged that sulphur prices will have to be above $85/ton FOB Gulf and probably significantly so to maintain Frasch production at its projected level. In any case this price will have to rise in real terms to account for increasing energy costs over the next few years. It is estimated that if gas prices achieve parity with oil prices in the U.S.A. the additional cost of recovering Frasch sulphur would be about $15/ton. In this case Frasch prices will have to increase accordingly and a price of $115/ton FOB Gulf port has been assumed for 1992. It is estimated also that the price of sulphur FOB Gulf port would have to be about $115/ton in order to justify investment in a new mine at the present time. Projections for sulphur export prices are given in Figure 9 and summarized in Table 25 below. -89- Table 25 - Sulphur Export Prices (Solid) 1983 US Dollars FOB U.S. Gulf Tampa FOB Year Coast Port Terminal (Liquid) Vancouver 1984 100 122 85 1985 102 12+4 87 1986 104 126 89 1987 106 128 91 1988 108 130 93 1989 110 132 95 1990 112 134 97 1991 114 136 99 1992 115 137 101 SULPHUR EXPORT PRICES CONSTANT 1983 US$ 200] 180- FOB U.S. GULF - - -TAMPA TERMINAL ...... FOB VANCOUVER F 140 E w a- 120- z z -0 0 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1988 1988 1990 1992 -90- ANNEX 1 INDUSTRIAL USES OF SULPHURa Sulphur and Sulphuric Acid Sold or Used in the United States, By End Use (Thousand metric tons sulphur content) Sulphuric Acid Elemental (sulphur Sulphur 1/ equivalent) Total Use 1981 19B2 1981 1982 91981 I2 Copper ores - - 308 254 308 254 Uranium and vanadium ores - - 213 121 213 121 Other ores - - 54 52 54 52 Food and kindred products W W - - W W Pulpmills and paper products 30 20 272 247 302 267 Inorganic pigments, paints and allied produts, industrial organic chemicals, and other chemical products 77 64 146 176 223 240 Other inorganic chemicals 157 80 274 253 431 333 Synthetic rubber and other plastic materials and synthetics W W 192 216 192 216 Cellulosic fibers, including rayon - - 63 86 63 86 Drugs - - 18 14 18 14 Soaps and detergents W 45 128 97 128 142 Industrial organic chemicals - - 564 328 564 328 Nitrogenous fertilizers - - 207 75 207 75 Phosphatic fertilizers - - 7,748 6,415 7,748' 6,415 Pestici des - - 37 42 37 42 Other agricultural chemicals 348 376 67 73 415 449 Explosives - - 14 15 14 15 Water treatment compounds - - 151 145 151 145 Other chemical prosiu-rt- - - 65 73 65 73 Petroleum refining J other petroleum and coal products 193 180 1,037 755 1,230 935 Paving and roofing materials 3 W - - 3 W Rubber and miscellaneous Dlastic products W W 9 6 9 6 Steel pickling - - 88 86 88 86 Nonferrous metals - - 25 16 25 16 Other primary metals - - 26 5 26 5 Storage batteries/acid - - 57 53 57 53 Exported sulphuric acid - - 68 78 68 78 Subtotal 808 76511,831 9,681 12,639 10,446 Unidentified 820 677 464 334 1,284 1,011 TOTAL 1,628 1,442 12,295 10,015 13,923 11,457 - Withheld to avoid disclosing rinidividual company propietary data; include- with "Unidentified." 1/ - Does not include elemental sulphur used for production of sulphuric acid. reference: U.S. Bureau of Mines a Reference 1. -91- INDUSTRIAL USES OF SULPHURa RECOVERED IMPORTED PYRITE. HYDROGEN RECLAIMED BYPRODUCT FRASCH SULFUR ELEMENTAL SULFUR| ELEMENTAL SULFUR SULFIDE SULFURIC ACID SULFURIC ACID SULFUR DIOXIDE 1.071 34 T921 o2n 6,06944, UNDEFINED~ SULFURIC ACID SUC PETROLEUM CELLULOSIC FIBERS.' REFINING*AND OTHER S * INCLUDING RAYON 755 PETROLEUM AND 12631 12.3111 COAL PRODUCTS* COPPER ORES 254 a 144 DRUGS (77b)} -- ii RUBBER AND PULP AND 20 s URANIUM AND 121a 97 SOAPS AND o n MISCELLANEOUS PAPER PRODUCTS VANADIUM ORES 1iw II) DETERGtENTS llO PLASTIC PRODUCTS PAIN,S AND MLLIED - PRODUCTS I'iDUS-IDSRAOTEPIM TRIAL ORG.3ANICCHEM 2 328 ORGANI OTHE PRIMARY ICALS AND OTHEA I168 (1,0031 CHEMICALS' (118 ETL CHEMICAL PRODUCTS OZTHERINDUSTRIAL OTE AEITE iICORGANIC POTHERPAPE 31 s 73 AGkIlCUL7URAL STEEL PiCKLING' CHFMitCALS PO S 19B) 1224) CHEMICALS* 12t21 AGRiCULTURAL TM | PULP MILLS 216 3 75g NITROGENOUS 16 NONFERROUS P CHEMICALS-- 21 11 FERTILIZERS 10 METALS PETROLEUM REFININGI AND PETROLEUM AND) OTHER CHEMICAL n7 6.415 I PHOSPHATIC 53 STORAGE COAL PROUOCTS PRODUCTS * 12251 119.6241 FERTILIZERS' 1161 BATTERIES/ACID SOAPS AND 46 | OTHER INORGANIC 2 a3 42a I 334a DETERGENTS CHEMCIALS '1774) 1127) 11|231 UNIDENTIFIED' I7 -1 1IINORGANIC PIGMENTS a r 1 6 mUNIDENTIFIED | PAINTS AND ALLIED 17 p E 78 UNIDENTIFIED PRODUCTS -- - EXPORTS 667S ANTHETICS| PLS 216. 14 I WATER TREATMENT |UBBE SULFURCONTENT THOUSAND METRIC TONS E-(PRTS ANOTHERIPALSTI 1A e AERTDAMN EXPORTS HMAERIALSAND 6 I COMPOUNDS I1#I 100% SULFURIC ACID THOUSAND METRIC TONS SYNTHIS I1* 1431 -|* . SOURCES OF SPENT ACID FOR RECLAIMING SuPtAtU Of mIpI$ Sulfur-sulfEuric acid supply/end-use relationship, 1982 a Reference 1. -92- Sulphuric Acid Consumption Non-Fertilizer Uses 1991 - '000 tonnes HISO, U.K. FRANCE USA JAPAN Total 2122 2157 13068 4062 Chemical Inds. 1394 1626 4046 . 1859 Sulphate 86 103 Flourinated products 217 Pigments: TiO2 etc 384 256 449 Dyestuffs & Intermediates 52 19 Plastics 112 54 29 94 Pharmaceuticals 11 54 10 Detergents 399 25 392 Explosives 37 42 4 Phos acid non-fert 597 Synthetic organics 131 1,725 115 Ag. chemicals 31 204 1 Pesticides 1 13 Other Inorganics 839 1595 Other chemicals 330 176 199 Non-chemical inds. 728 531 7604. 1210 Oil & petrol 21 39 3171(Inc. coal 27 products) Metallurgy 45 199 2183 205 (of which: Steel pickling 38 85 268 103 copper ores 942 Uranium & vanadium 652 Other ores 165 nonferrous metals 75 other primary metals 81 metal manufacture 38 mining & smelting 64 Tar products 23 Distilling, sugarrefining 44 Water treatment 461 Artificial fibres & cellulose 218 88 783 744 Paper 25 94 109 Pulp 739 Batteries 173 20 Oil & Fat 31 Soda industry 5 Machinery I Activated clay 44 Other non-chemical 444 138 Miscellaneous - 1418 993 Source: The British Sulphur Corporation Limited, April 1983. V -93- ANNEX 2 SUPPLY CAPABILITY OF FRASCH SULPHUR MINESa Estimated U.S. Frasch Sulphur Production Capability: 1981-1990 (In Millions of Long Tons/Year) Approx. Remaining Reserves as of 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1990 Jan. 1, 1991 DUVAL Culberson 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 18-19 Phillips Ranch 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 1 (Subtotal ) 2.3. 2 19-2 FARMLAND-Ft. Stockton 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.6 FREEPORT Caillou Island 0.2 0.3 0.3* 0.2* - - O Caminada - - - - - 5-6 Garden Island Bay 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.7 - - 0 Grand Isle 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 0.8 0.5 0 (Subtotal) 2. 4 T.7 T S-8 T-6 JEFFERSON LAKE-Long Point 0.2 0.2 - - - - 0 TEXASGULF (El f-Aquitaine) Boling 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 10 1.0 2-3 Comanche Creek 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0 Moss Bluff 0.2 0.2 - - - - 0 (Subtotal) T.4 TW T= T T1.2 2-3 TOTAL ALL MINES 6.4 6.4 6.1 5.6 4.4 4.1 28 * - Gas prices may increase after 1984 to a level which will discourage continued operation. a Reference 2. -94- ANNEX 3 COUNTRY PRODUCTION OF SULPHUR BY MAJOR SOURCES MILLION TONS OF SULPHUR EQUIVALENT ACTUAL ESTIMATED FORECAST 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1992 NORTH AMERICA UNITED STATES FRASH AND NATIVE SULPHUR (5) 6o35 4o21 3.20 4e20 5.00 5.00 5.00 4.00 PYRITES (SA) 0.31 0,28 0.29 0.29 0.30 0.31 0.32 0,37 RECOVERED SULPHUR (OIL-S) 2.29 2*40 2.50 2.84 3.06 3.28 3.50 4b60 SULPHiUR (GAS-S) 1.97 1.96 2.30 2.22 2.44 2.66 2.88 4o00 TOTAL RECOVERED(OIL/GAS) 4.26 4,,36 4.80 5.06 5.50 5.94 6.38 8.60 OTHER FORMS SULPHUR (S) 0.7 0.08 0.09 0.10 0.12 0.14 0.16 0,26 SULPtHUR (SA) 1.16 0.83 0.86 0,89 0,92 0.95 O,98 1.17 TOTAL OTHER FORMS 1.23 0.91 0.95 0.99 104 1.09 1.14 1,43 BRIMSTONE 10*68 8.65 8.09 9,36 10.62 11.08 11.54 12.86 TOTAL 12.15 9.76 9.24 10*54 11*84 12.34 12.84 14.4O DISCRETION-FRASH/PYRITES 6.66 4o49 3.49 4.49 5,30 5.31 5.32 4i37 NON-DISC.ALL OTH. 5,49 5,27 5.75 6.05 6.54 7,03 7.52 10.03 -95- ACTUAL ESTIMATED FORECAST 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1992 CANADA FRASCH AND NATIVE SULPHUR (5) - - - - - PYRITES (SA) 0.33 0.34 0.35 0.36 0,37 0.38 0.39 0.44 RECOVERED SULPHUR-OIL(S) 0*26 0027 0.30 0.32 0.33 0.35 0036 0660 SULPHUR-GAS(S) 5,61 5.23 5,40 5,60 5.80 5+64 5.48 4490 ------Z------.- .------..---.- TOTAL RECOVERED (OIL/GAS) 5.87 5 v50 5470 5,92 6.13 5.99 S.84 5.50 OTHER FORMS SULPHUR (S) 0,26 0,24 0,26 0,28 0.30 0.32 0,34 0,48 SULPHUR (SA) 0.53 0,50 0*52 0.54 0.56 0,58 0,60 0.70 ------w------ TOTAL OTHER FORMS 0.79 0.74 0.78 O.82 0.86 0.90 0.94 1,18 BRIMSTONE 6.13 5.74 5.96 6.20 6*43 6.31 6.18 5.98 TOTAL 6,99 6,58 6.83 7.10 7136 7.27 7.17 7.12 DISCRETION-FRASH/PYRITES O,33 0.34 0,35 0.36 0.37 0.38 0.39 0 t44 NON-DISC*ALL OTHlER. 6,66 6.24 6.48 6.74 6,99 6.89 67tR 6+68 -96- ACTUAL ESTIMATED FORECAST 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1992 WEST EUROPE WEST GERMANY FRASH AND NATIVE SULPHUR (5)) - - - - PYRITES (SA) 0.25 0.23 0.23 0.23 Ot23 O023 0.20 0.10 RECOVERED SULPHUR (OIL)(S) 0,19 0.21 0.24 0,26 0.28 0,29 0.30 0.35 SULPHUR (GAS)(S) O.83 0.85 O055 0,85 0,85 0.85 0.85 0.85 TOTAL RECOVERED (OIL/GAS) 1.02 1.06 0.79 1.11 1.13 1.14 1.15 1.20 OTHER FORMS SULPHUR (5) - - - - - SULPHUR (SA) - - 0.55 0b54 0,55 0.56 0.57 0.58 0,59 0.61 TOTAL OTHER FORMS 0.55 Oe54 0.55 0.56 0.57 0e58 0+59 0+61 BRIMSTONE 1.02 1o06 0.79 111 1.13 1,14 1.15 1,20 TOTAL 1.82 1+83 1.57 1,90 1.93 1*95 1.94 1.91 DISCRETION-FRASH/PYRITES 0.25 0.23 0.23 0.23 0.23 O.23 O.20 0.10 NON-DISC+ALL OTHERi 1.S7 1+60 1.34 1.67 1+70 1*72 1.74 1+81 -97- ACTUAL ESTIMATED FORECAST 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1992 FRANCE FRASCH AND NATIVE SULPHUR (S) PYRITE (SA) RECOVERED SULPHUR-OIL(S) 0s22 0.20 0.21 0.23 0.25 0.27 0.28 0.33 SULPHUR-GAS(S) 1.70 160 1.60 1,40 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.70 TOTAL RECOVERED (OIL/GAS) 1+92 1.80 1.81 1.63 1.25 1.27 1,28 1.03 OTHER FORMS SULPHUR (5) ------SULPHUR (SA) 0,17 0,16 O,16 016 O017 O.17 0i17 0,18 TOTAL OTHER FORMS 0.17 0.16 0,16 0.16 0.17 0.17 0,17 0.18 BRIMSTONE 1.92 1.80 1,81 1.63 1.25 1.27 1.28 1i03 TOTAL 2.09 1.96 1.97 1,79 1.42 1.44 1.45 1,21 DISCRETION-FRASH/PYRITES ------NON-DISCeALL OTHER. 2.09 1.96 1,97 1.79 1.42 1.44 1.45 1.21 -98- ACTUAL ESTIMATED FORECAST 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1992 OTHER WEST EUROPE FRASCH AND NATIVE SULPHUR(S) - - - - PYRITE (SA) - - - 2.27 2.21 2.28 2.40 2*53 2.68 2.82 3.53 RECOVERED SULPHUR -OIL(S) 0.69 0.59 0.66 0.72 0.80 SULPHUR-GAS(S) 0.87 0*95 1.32 0.01 0.12 0.12 0.12 0.10 0.06 0.06 0.06 TOTAL RECOVERED (OIL/GAS) 0,70 0,71 0,78 0.84 0.90 0.93 1.01 1.38 OTHER FORMS .------SULPHUR (5) ------SULPHUR (SA) 1.O7 1.06 1.06 1.07 1.08 l1.3 1.15 1.32 ------.------TOTAL OTHER FORMS 1.07 1.06 1.06 1.07 1.08 1.13 1.15 1,32 BRIMSTONE 0,70 0.71 0,78 0.84 0.90 0.93 1.01 1.38 TOTAL 4.04 3.98 4.12 4.31 4.51 4*74 4.98 6.,23 DISCRETION-FRASH/PYRITES 2,27 2,21 2.28 2.40 2.53 2.68 2.82 NON-DISC*ALL OTHER. 3.53 1.77 1.77 1.84 1,91 1t98 2.06 2+16 2670 ACTUAL ESTIMATED FORECAST 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1992 OCEANI A FRASH (S) PYRITES (SA) RECOVERED SULPHUR-OIL AND GAS (S) 0,01 0.01 0.02 0,02 0.02 0.02 002 0.02 SULPHUR-GAS(S) ------ TOTAL RECOVERED (OIL/GAS) 0,01 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 OTHER FORMS SULPHUR (S) ------SULPtIUR (AS) 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.18 0.19 0.20 0,21 0.24 TOTAL OTHER FORMS 0+17 0.17 0.17 Ot1 0.19 0.20 0.21 0,24 BRIMSTONE 0.01 0.01 0*02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0,02 0.02 TOTAL 0.18 0.18 0.19 020 0.21 0.22 0,23 0.26 DISCRETION-FRASH/PYRITES ------NON-DISC.ALL OTHIER. 0.18 0,18 0.19 0.20 0.21 0,22 0,23 O.26 -100- ACTUAL ESTIMATED FORECAST .1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1992 OTHER DEVELOPED ECONOMIES JAPAN FRASCH AND NATIVE SULPHUR (S) - - - - PYRITES (SA) 0.24 0.23 0.23 0.23 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.16 RECOVERED SULPHUR (OIL AND GAS)(S) 11S 1.04 1.05 1.05 106 1.06 1.07 1.09 SULPHUR (f3AS)(S) ------TOTAL RECOVERED (OIL/GAS) 1.18 1,04 1.05 1.05 1.06 1#06 1.07 1+09 OTHER FORMS SULPHUR (.) ------SULPHUR (SA) 1.36 1,36 1+36 1.35 1,35 1.34 1.34 1.30 TOTAL OTtHER FORMS 1.36 1.36 1,36 1+35 1.35 [.34 1e34 1o30 BRIMSTONE 1+18 1.04 1.05 1+05 1.06 1.06 1.07 1.09 TOTAL 2.78 2*63 2,64 2.63 2.63 2.62 2.63 2.55 DISCRETION-FRASH/PYRITES 0,24 0.23 ';,23 0,23 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.16 NON-DISC+ALL OTHER, 2.54 2+40 2,41 2,40 2o41 2+40 2+41 2,39 a -101- ACTUAL ESTIMATED FORECAST 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1992 SOUTH AFRICA rRASCH AND NATIVE SULPHUR (5) ------PYRITES (SA) 0.58 0.55 0.57 0.58 0.60 0.62 0.64 0.74 RECOVERED SULPHUR (OIL AND GAS)(S) 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04 0*05 0*05 0.05 0,05 SULPtHUR (GAS) (5) ------ TOTAL RECOVERED (OIL/GAS) 0304 0604 0.04 0,04 005 0.05 0.05 0,05 OTHER FORMS SULPHUR (S) ------SULPHUR (SA) 0Q15 0+15 0.15 0.16 0.16 0,16 017 0.18 TOTAL OTHER FORMS 0.15 0015 0.15 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.17 0.18 BRIMSTONE 0.04 0.04 0.04 O0.4 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 TOTAL 0.77 0.74 0.76 0.78 0681 0*83 0.86 0697 DISCRETION-FRASH/PYRITES 0,58 0.55 0.57 058 0.60 0.62 0.64 0,74 NON-DISC.ALL OTHER. 0.19 0.19 0.19 0.20 0Q21 0.21 0*22 0.23 -102- ACTUAL ESTIMATED FORECAST 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1992 AFRICA FRASCH AND NATIVE SULPHUR (S))- - PYRITES (SA) - - 0.03 0003 OO3 O0.3 OO3 0.03 0.03 OO3 RECOVERED SULPHUR-OIL)) ( 5 ) SULPHIUR (GAS)(S) - TOTAL RECOVERED (OIL/GAS) - OTHER FORMS ------.---- SULPHUR (S) ------SULPiHUR (SA) - 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.14 0.14 0.14 0.14 0.16 ---- J-- ,------TOTAL OTHER FORKS 0t13 013 0.13 O014 0,14 O014 O014 0+16 BRIMSTONE TOTAL 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.19 ===-=- ===e'---~*-= ==== DISCRETION-FRASH/PYRITES 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0,03 0,03 0,03 0,&3 NON-DISC,ALL OTHER. 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.14 014 0.14 0,14 O0,6 -103- ACTUAL ESTIMATED FORECAST 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1992 LATIN AMERICA -- =--=---=5 MEXICO FRASCH AND NATIVE SULPHUR (S) 1.69 1e40 1.06 l.20 1*49 t .52 1.55 1656 PYRITES (SA) ------RECO VERED SULPHUR -OIL AND GAS (S) 0.36 0.36 0,42 0,48 0.54 0.58 O062 0.80 (GAS)(S) SULPHUR ------ TOTAL RECOVERED (OIL/GAS) 0.36 0.36 042 0,48 0.54 0,58 0.62 0,80 OTHER FORMS SULPHUR (S) ------SULPHUR (SA) 0.09 0,08 0,15 0.18 0.21 0,24 0.27 0.36 TOTAL OTHER FORMS 009 0.08 0.15 0.18 0021 0.24 0.27 0.36 BRIMSTONE 2.05 1,76 1,48 1.68 2.03 2*10 2.17 2.36 TOTAL 2.14 1.84 1.63 1.86 2.24 2.34 2.44 2.72 DISCRETION-FRASH/PYRITES 1o69 1.40 1,06 1.20 1.49 1*52 1.55 1.56 NON-DISC.ALL OTHER. 0,45 0.44 O057 0.66 0.75 0,82 0.89 1,16 -104- ACTUAL ESTIMATED FORECAST 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1992 OTHlER LATIN AMERICA COUNTRIES FRASCH AND NATIVE SULPHUR (S) ------PYRITES (SA) 0.05 0.05 0,07 0,08 0.10 0.12 0.14 0.24 RECOVERED SULPHUR-OIL AND GAS (S) 0.39 0,38 0.41 0*44 0.47 0.50 0.53 0.68 SULPHUR (GAS)(S) ------ TOTAL RECOVERED (OIL/GAS) 0.39 0.38 0.41 0.44 0O47 0,50 0.53 0.68 OTHER FORMS SULPHUR (S) ------SULPHUR (SA) 0012 O012 0.13 0.13 0+14 0.14 0,15 0.17 TOTAL OTHER FORMS 0.12 0.12 0.13 0.13 0.14 0.14 0.15 0.17 BRIMSTONE 0,39 0.38 0.41 0.44 0.47 0,50 0,53 0.68 TOTAL 0,56 0,55 0.61 0.65 O071 0.76 0.82 109 DISCRETION-FRASH/PYRITES 0,05 0.05 0V07 0,08 0.10 0.12 0.14 0.24 NON-DISC*ALL OTHER. 0*51 0.50 0,54 0.57 0.61 0.64 0,68 0.85 -105- ACTUAL ESTIMATED FORECAST 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1992 NEAR EAST IRAQ FRASCH AND NATIVE SULPHUR (S) 0P10 0.04 0.33 0.55 0.67 0.74 0.79 0.80 PYRITES (SA) ------ RECOVERED SULPHUR (OIL AND GAS)(S) 0.05 0.06 0.07 0.20 0.33 0.37 0.40 0.44 SULPHIUR (GAS) (S) ------ TOTAL RECOVERED (OIL/GAS) 0.05 0.06 0,07 0,20 0.33 O.37 0,40 0.44 OTHER FORKS SULPHUR (6) ------SULPHUR (SA) - TOTAL OTHER FORMS - - - - BRIMSTONE 0.15 0.10 0.40 0.75 1.00 1.11 1619 1.24 TOTAL 0.15 0*10 0.40 0,75 1.00 1.11 1.19 1.24 DISCRETION-FRASH/PYRITES 0,10 0.04 0.33 0655 O.67 0674 O079 0.80 NON-DISC*ALL OTHER. OOS 0.06 OO7 0.20 0.33 0,37 0.40 0.44 -106- ACTUAL ESTIMATED FORECAST 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1992 ABU DHABI FRASCH AND NATIVE SULPHUR (S) - - PYRITES (SA) - - - RECOVERED SULPHUR (OIL AND GAS)(S) - - - 0.03 0.07 0,18 0.18 0.22 SULPHUR (G3AS) (S) - - - - - e-*------TOTAL RECOVERED (OIL/GAS) - - 0.03 0.07 0.18 o018 0,22 OTHER FORMS SULPHUR (S) SULPHUR (SA) TOTAL OTHER FORMS BRIMSTONE - - 0.030 0.07 0.18 0.18 0.22 TOTAL - - 0,03 0.07 0.18 0v18 0.22 DISCRETTON-FRASH/PYRITES - NON-DISC#ALL OTHER. - 0.03 0O07 0.18 0.18 0.22 -107- ACTUAL ESTIMATED FORECAST 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1992 BAHRAIN FRASCH AND NATIVE SULPHUR (S) PYRITES (SA) ------ RECOVERED SULPHUR - OIL AND GAS (5) 0.03 0v02 0,03 0.03 0.03 0.04 0605 0.20 SULPHiUR (GAS)(S) ------ TOTAL RECOVERED (OIL/GAS) 0t03 0.02 0.03 0.t03 0.03 0.04 0,05 0,20 OTHER FORMS ------. ..- SULPHUR (S) SULPHIUR (SA) ------ TOTAL OTHER FORMS ------ BRIMSTONE 0.03 0.02 0.03 0,03 0.,03 0,04 0,05 0.20 TOTAL 0,03 0.02 0,03 0.03 0.03 0*04 0.05 0i20 DISCRETION-FRASH/PYRITES ------NON-DISCeALL OTHER. 0.03 0.02 0403 0.03 0.03 0.04 0,05 0+20 -108- ACTUAL ESTIMATED FORECAST 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1992 IRAN FRASCH AND NATIVE SULDHUR (S) - - PYRITES (SA) ------RECOVERED ti2ILPHUR (OIL AND GAS) (S) - - 0.06 0,12 0.18 0.24 0.30 1.00 SULPHIUR (GAS)(S) ------TOTAL RECOVERED (OIL/GAS) - 0.06 0.12 0.18 0.24 0.30 1.00 OTHER FORMS SULPHUR (S) - - - - SULPHUR (SA) TOTAL OTHER FORMS - - - BRIMSTONE 0.060 O012 0.18 0.24 0.30 1.00 TOTAL - 0.06 0.12 0*18 0.24 0.30 1,00 DISCRETION-FRASH/PYRITES - - - - - NON-DI.ALL OTHERO) - - 0.06 0.12 0,18 0.24 0,30 1.00 -109- ACTUAL ESTIMATED FORECAST 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1992 KUWIAIT FRASCH AND NATIVE SULPHUR ()S PYRITES (SA) RECOVERED SULPHUR (OIL AND GAS) (S) 0,11 0.10 0.12 0.12 0.24 0.38 0.45 0.79 SULPHUR (GAS) (S) ------ TOTAL RECOVERED (OIL/GAS) 0.11 o010 0.12 0.12 0,24 0.38 0.45 0.79 OTHER FORMS SULPHUR (5) - - - - SULPHUR OTHER FORMS (SA) ------ TOTAL OTHER FORMS ------ BRIMSTONE 0.11 0,10 0.12 0.12 0.24 O038 0.45 O.79 TOTAL 0.11 0,10 0.12 0.12 0.24 0.38 0645 0.79 DISCRETION-FRASH/PYRITES ------NON-DISC.ALL OTHER. 011 010 O.2 0.12 0.24 0.38 0.45 0.79 -110- ACTUAL ESTIMATED FORECAST 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1992 QATAR FRASCH AND NATIVE SULPHUR (S) - - - PYRITES (SA) ------RECOVERED SULPHUR (OIL AND GAS) (S) - - - 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.10 SULPHUR (GAS) (5) ------ TOTAL RECOVERED (OIL/GAS) - - 0 0.03*02 0.04 0.05 0.10 OTHER FORMS SULPHUR (5) - - SULPHUR (BS) - - - - TOTAL OTHER FORMS - - - - - BRIMSTONE - - - 0.02 003 0,04 0.05 0.10 TOTAL - - - 002 0.*03 0.04 0.05 0.10 - ~~~= ===--e--=---=--- DISCRETION-FRASH/PYRITES ------NON-DISC,ALL OTHER. - - 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.10 ACTUAL ESTIMATED FORECAST 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1992 SAUDI ARABIA FRASCH AND NATIVE SULPHUR (S) PYRITES (SA) RECOVERED SULPHUR (OIL AND GAS) (S) 0660 0.90 0.65 0.80 1.15 1.20 1.25 1.50 SULPHUR (GAS) (S) - - - - - TOTAL RECOVERED(OIL/GAS) 0.60 0.90 0.65 0.80 1.5 1.20 1.25 1.50 OTHER FORMS SULPHUR (5) ------SULPHUR OTHER FORMS (SA) TOTAL OTHER FORMS - BRIMSTONE 0,60 0.90 0.65 0.80 1.15 1.20 1,25 1.50 TOTAL 0.60 0.90 065 0,80 1 15 1.20 1,25 1.50 DISCRETION-FRASH/PYRITES ------NON-DISC*ALL OTHER, OO60 0.90 0,65 0.80 1.15 1,20 1*25 1.50 -112- ACTUAL ESTIMATED FORECAST 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1992 SYRIA FRASCH AND NATIVE SULPHUR (S) - - - - PYRITES (SA) ------RECOVERED SULPHUR (OIL AND GAS) (S) - - - - 0.01 0O02 0.03 O.OB SULPHIUR (GAS) (S) ------ TOTAL RECOVERED(OIL/GAS) - - - 0O01 0.072 003 0.08 OTHER FORMS SULPHUR (S) ------SULPHUR - OTHER FORM (SA) TOTAL OTHER FORMS - - - - BRIMSTONE - - - 0 +001 0.02 O.03 0*08 TOTAL - - - 0.01 0.02 0,03 O0.08 DISCRETION-FRASH/PYRITES - - - NON-DISC.ALL QTHi 001 0.02 0+03 0+08 f1 -113- ACTUAL ESTIMATED FORECAST 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1992 FAR EAST INDIA FRASCH AND NATIVE SULPHUR (S) ------PYRITES (SA) 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0,01 0.01 0+01 RECOVERED SULPHUR OIL (S) ------SULPHUR (GAS) (S) - - - TOTAL RECOVERED (OIL/GAS) OTHER FORMS SULPHUR (5) ------SULPHIUR (SA) 0.09 0+11 0+13 0+14 0.14 0.14 0+14 0.18 TOTAL OTHER FORMS 0.09 0+11 O13 0+14 0.14 0+14 0.14 0,18 BRIMSTONE - TOTAL 0o10 0.12 0.14 0.15 0.15 0,15 0.15 0.19 DISCRETION-FRASH/PYRITES 0.01 0,01 0.01 0,01 0,01 0,01 0.01 0,01 NON-DISC+ALL OTH. 0.09 0,11 0.13 0.14 0.14 0+14 0,14 0,18 -114- ACTUAL ESTIMATED FORECAST 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1992 PHILIPPINES FRASCHf AND NATIVE SULPHUR (t) ------PYRITES (SA) ------RECOVERED SULPHUR (OIL) (S) ------SULPHUR (GAS) (S) ------TOTAL RECOVERED(OIL/GAS) - - - OTHER FORMS SULPHUR (S) - - - - - SULPHUR OTHfER FORMS (SA) 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0417 0.21 0.23 O030 TOTAL OTHER FORMS 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.17 0.21 0,23 0.30 BRIMSTONE - - - TOTAL 00O1 0101 0,b01 001 0b17 0621 0623 Ob30 DISCRETION-FRASH/PYRITES ------NON-DISCeALL OTHER. 0.01 0.01 O0Ol 0,01 O017 0.21 0.23 0,30 -115- ACTUAL ESTIMATED1 FORECAST 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1992 OTHER FAR EASTERN COUNTRIES FRASCH AND NATIVE SULPHUR (S) - - PYRITES (SA) - - RECOVERED SULPHUR (OIL) (S) - - SULPHIUR (GAS) (S) - - TOTAL REC3VERED(OIL/AS) ) OTHIER FORMS SULPHUR (S) ------SULPHUR OTHIER FORMS (SA) 005 0.05 0.06 0.07 0.0E 0.08* 0*08 0,10 TOTAL. OTHER FORMS 0.05 0.05 0.06 0.07 0,08 0.08 008 0.10 BRIMSTONE *- - TOTAL 0.05 0,05 0.06 0.07 O.08 0.08 0.08 0.10 -- -=- -- =---=- --- =------====- DISCRETION-FRASH/PYRITES ------NON-DISC.ALL OTH, 0.05 0.05 0.06 0.07 0.08 0*08 OOB 0.10 -116- ACTUAL ESTIMATED FORECAST 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1992 EAST EUROPE USSR FRASH (S) 2v20 2*30 2445 2*55 2,65 2.80 2.85 3450 PYRITES (SA) 4402 4414 4t26 4,39 4.52 4,66 4+80 5+20 RECOVERED SULPHUR (OIL AND GAS) (S) 1.72 1.75 1.90 2.15 2.25 2.40 2.50 5.50 SULPHUR (GAS)(S) ------ TOTAL RECOVERED(OIL/GAS) 1.72 1.75 1.90 2.15 2.25 2.40 2.50 5.50 OTHER FORMS SULPHUR (5) ------SULPHUR (SA) 1.80 1,80 1,90 2.00 2.10 2.20 2.30 2.70 TOTAL OTHER FORMS 1.80 1.80 1.90 2,00 2.10 2.20 2.30 2.70 BRIMSTONE 3.92 4.05 4.35 4.70 4.90 5.20 5.35 9.0 TOTAL 9.74 9.99 10,51 11.09 11452 12.06 12.45 16,90 DISCRETIOM-FRASH/PYRITES 6.22 6.44 6,71 6.94 7.17 7.46 7.65 8,70 NON--DISC*ALL 0TH. 3*52 3o55 3.80 4.15 4,35 4.60 4.80 8.20 -11 7- ACTUAL ESTIMATED FORECAST 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1992 POLAND FRASH (S) 4,75 4,88 4670 4.50 4.50 4.50 4.50 5.50 PYRITE (SA) - - RECOVERED SULPHUR (OIL AND GAS) (S) 0603 0.03 0,03 0.03 0,03 0.03 0.04 0i06 SULPilUR (GAS) (5) ------ TOTAL RECOVERED(OIL/GAS) 0.03 0.03 0,03 0.03 0,03 0,03 0*04 0.06 OTHER FORMS SULPHUR (S) ------SULPHUR (SA) 0,22 0.22 0.23 0.23 0,23 0.23 0+23 0425 TOTAL OTHER FORMS 0.22 0.22 0,23 0.23 0.23 0,23 0.23 0.25 BRIMSTONE 4,78 4.91 4.73 4.53 4.53 4.53 4,54 5,56 TOTAL 5,00 5,13 4f96 4,76 4*76 4.76 4.77 5681 DISCRETION-FRASH/PYRITES 4.75 4.88 4.70 4.50 4.50 4.50 4,50 5650 NON-DISC.ALL OTH. 0.25 O025 0,26 0.26 0.26 0.26 0.27 0,31 -118- ACTUAL ESTIMATED FORECAST 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1992 OTHER EAST EUROPEAN COUNTRIES FRASH (S) - - 0.05 O0lO 0.15 0+20 0*25 0.30 PYRITES (SA) Ot39 0.36 0,43 0,40 0.48 0.47 0.48 0.51 RECOVERED SULPHUR (OIL AND GAS) (S) 0,07 008 0.12 0.13 0,13 0,14 0Q15 0.18 SULPHUR (GAS (5) ------TOTAL RECOVERED(OIL/GAS) 0.07 0.08 0.12 0O13 0+13 0.14 0O15 0,18 OTHER FORMS SULPHUR () - -) - - - - SULPHUR (SA) - 0.50 0.49 0.51 0.52 0.54 0.53 0.54 0.60 - .------,- TOTAL OTHER FORMS 0.50 0,49 0.51 0.52 0.54 0O53 0.54 O060 BRIMSTONE 0.07 0.08 0.17 0.23 0.28 0.34 0,40 0.48 TOTAL 0,96 0.93 1.11 1.15 1,30 1.34 1.42 1659 ===a= =-:s -=--= --- =S - = =--== C-s DISCRETION-FRASH/PYRITES 0,39 0*36 0,48 0.50 0.63 0,67 0073 0.81 NON-DISC.ALL OTHE. O.57 0.57 O063 0.65 0.67 0.67 0.69 0.78 -119- ACTUAL ESTIMATED FORECAST 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1 187 1992 CENTRALLY PLANNED (ASIA) CHINA FRASH (S) 0*19 0.20 0.21 0.22 0.23 0.25 0.27 0.35 PYRITES (SA) 1+.6 1+95 2+15 2.25 2.35 2,45 2+55 2.80 RECOVERED SULPHUR (OIL AND GAS) (S) 0O10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.20 SULPHUR (GAS) (S) ------ TOTAL RECOVERED(OIL/GAS) 0.10 0h10 0,10 0,10 0,10 0+10 0.10 0.20 OTHER FORMS SULPHUR (S) ------SULPHUR (SA) 0.25 0.27 0.28 029 0.29 0,29 0.29 0+40 TOTAL OTHIER FORMS 0+25 0.27 0.28 0.29 0*29 0,29 0.29 0.40 BRIMSTONE 0.29 0.30 0.31 0.32 0.33 0,35 0.37 0,55 TOTAL 2.40 2.52 2.74 2.86 2.97 3o09 3.21 3.75 DISCRETION-FRASH/PYRITES 2.05 2.15 2.36 2,47 2.58 2.70 2+82 3,15 NON-DISC+ALL OTH. 0,35 0n37 0+38 0.39 O039 0+39 0+39 0,60 -120- ACTUAL ESTIMATED FORECAST 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1992 OTHER CENTRALLY PLANNED (ASIA) FRASCH AND NATIVE SULPHUR (S) ------PYRITES (SA) 0.20 0.21 0.21 0.22 0,22 0.23 0.24 0,29 RECOVERED SULPHUR (OIL AND GAS) (S) 0.05 0.06 0.06 0.06 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.09 SULPHUR (GAS) (5) ------TOTAL RECOVERED(OIL/GAS) 005 0.06 0,06 0.06 0.07 0.07 0.07 0*09 OTHER FORMS ------.- -- - SULPHUR (SA) ------SULPHUR (SA) 0.04 0+04 0+04 0,04 0,04 0.04 0.04 0+06 TOTAL OTHER FORMS 0t04 0+04 0.04 0.04 0,04 0.04 0.04 0.06 BRIMSTONE 0.05 0,06 0.06 0.06 0.07 0.07 0.07 0+09 TOTAL 0.29 0.31 0.31 0.32 0+33 0.34 0.35 O044 DISCRETION-FRASCH/PYRITES O020 0,21 Oo2l 0.22 0.22 0+23 0.24 0.29 NON-DISC+ALL 0TH, 0,09 0.10 0,10 0o1o 0.11 0+11 0.11 0.15 PREPARED BY: W. SHELDRICK WORLD BANK INDUSTRY DEPARTMENT REGIONAL AND WORLD PRODUCTION OF SULPHUR BY MAJOR SOURCES MILLION TONS OF SULPHUR EQUIVALENT ACTUAL ESTIMATED FORECAST 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1992 NORTH AMERICA FRASCH AND NATIVE SULPHUR (S) 6.35 4.21 3.20 4,20 5,.00 5.00 5.00 4,00 PYRITES (SA) 0.64 0.62 0.64 0.65 0,67 0.69 0.71 0.81 RECOVERED SULPHUR (OIL-S) 2,55 2.67 2.80 3,16 3,39 3.63 3.86 5.20 SULPHUR (SAS-S) 7.58 7.19 7470 7,82 8,24 8.30 8.36 8.90 TOTAL RECOVERED(OIL/GAS) 10.13 9,86 10.50 10.98 11.63 11.93 12o22 14,10 OTHER FORMS SULPHUR (S) 0,33 0.32 0.35 0.38 0.42 0.46 0.50 0.74 SULPHUR (SA) 1,69 1.33 1.38 1,43 1.48 1.53 1.58 1.87 TOTAL OTfIER FORMS 2.02 1.65 1+73 1+81 1,90 1.99 2.08 2.61 BRIMSTONE 16.81 14.39 14.05 15,56 17.05 17,39 17.72 18,84 TOTAL 19.14 16.34 16.07 17.64 19,20 19.61 20.01 21.52 DISCRETION-FRASH/PYRITES 6,99 4.83 3.84 4.85 5.67 5.69 5.71 4,81 NON-DISC,ALL OTH. 12,15 11.51 12.23 12.79 13.53 13.92 14+30 16,71 -122- ACTUAL ESTIMATED FORECAST 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1992 WESTERN EUROPE FRASCH AND NATIVE SULPHUR (S) ------PYRITES (SA) 2*52 2444 2.51 2,63 2#76 2.91 3402 3,63 RECOVERED SULPHUR-OIL(S) 1t10 1,00 1.11 1.21 1,33 1.43 1.53 2.00 SULPHUR-GAS(S) 2o54 2,57 2+27 2,37 1.95 1,91 1+91 1.61 TOTAL RECOVERED (OIL/GAS) 3.64 3t57 3,38 3.58 3+28 3+34 3.44 3.61 OTHER FORMS ------ SULPHUR (5) ------SULPHUR (SA) 1+79 1.76 1e77 1+79 1+82 1.88 1.91 2.11 TOTAL OTHIER FORMS 1.79 1.76 1,77 1+79 1.82 1,88 lo91 2+11 BRIMSTONE 3,64 3.57 3,38 3.58 3.28 3.34 3.44 3+61 TOTAL 7+95 7,77 7.66 8.00 7.86 8,13 8,37 9.35 DISCRETION-FRASH/PYRITES 2.52 2.44 2.51 2.63 2t76 2*91 3+02 3.63 HON-DISC*ALL OTHIER. 5,43 5.33 5.15 5+37 5+10 5.22 5.35 5+72 -123- ACTUAL ESTIMATED FORECAST 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1966 1987 1992 OCEANIA FRASCH AND NATIVE SULPHUR (S) PYRITES (SA) ------ RECOVERED SULPHUR (OIL AND GAS)(S) 0.01 0.01 0.02 0,02 002 0.02 0*02 0.02 SULPHUR (GAS)(S) ------ TOTAL RECOVERED (OIL/GAS) 0.01 0,01 O0O2 0.02 0.02 0.02 0,02 002 OTHER FORMS SULPHUR (S) ------SULPHIUR (SA) 0.17 0.17 0.17 0618 0,19 0.20 0.21 0.24 TOTAL OTHER FORMS 0.17 0,17 0,17 ol.8 0.19 0.20 0.21 0,24 BRIMSTONE 0,01 0.01 0.02 0,02 0.02 0,02 0.02' 0*02 TOTAL 0ls ot.10 0.19 0.20 0.21 0.22 O,23 0,26 DISCRETION-FRASH/PYRITES - - - - - NON-DISCoALL OTHER o0.18 0618 0.19 0,20 0.21 0.22 0.23 0.26 -124- ACTUAL ESTIMATED FORECAST 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1992 OTHER DEVELOPED FRASCH AND NATIVE SULPHUR (S) ------PYRITE (SA) 0.82 0.78 0.80 O0,8 082 0.84 0,86 0,90 RECOVERED SULPHUR-OIL AND GAS (S) 1,.22 1,08 1009 1.09 loll 1.11 1.12 1.14 SULPHUR-GAS(S) - - - - TOTAL RECOVERED (OIL/GAS) o.22 1.08 1.09 1.t09 1.11 1.11 1.12 1.14 OTHER FORMS SULPHUR (5) ------SULPHUR (SA) 1,51 1.51 1,51 1.51 1.51 1.50 1.51 148 TOTAL OTHER FORMS 1.51 1P51 1.51 1.51 1.51 1.50 151 1.48 BRIMSTONE 1,22 1.08 1409 1.09 1.11 1.11 1.2 1.14 TOTAL 3455 3,37 3640 3.41 3e44 3.45 3.49 3.52 uuuu =mm= = t== awm== u==Ew ===m====u:=: ===== DISCRETION-FRASH/PYRITES 0,82 0,*78 0,80 0.81 0.,82 O.84 0.86 0.90 NON-DISBCALL OTHER. 2.73 2.59 2o60 2060 2.62 2.61 2.63 2,62 -125- ACTUAL ESTIMATED FORECAST 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1992 AFRICA FRASCH AND NATIVE SULPHUR(S) - - - - - PYRITE (SA) 0.03 o0 3 0.03 0.03 0,03 0.03 0o.03 0.03 RECOVERED SULPHUR -OIL AND GAS (S) SULPHUR--GAS(S) - TOTAL RECOVERED (OIL/GAS) - - OTHER FORMS SULPHUR (S) -S- - SULPHUR (SA) 0.13 0,13 i0.13 0.14 0,14 0.14 0+14 O0.16 TOTAL OTHIER FORMS 0.13 0,13 0.13 0.14 0014 0.14 0,14 0.I6 BRIMSTONE - - - - TOTAL O016 0.16 0.16 0.17 0,17 0.17 0.17 0.19 DISCRETION-FRASH/PYRITES 0.03 0.03 0,03 0,03 0.03 0O03 0,03 0.03 NON-DISC*ALL OTHER. 0.13 Oo3 0,13 0,14 0.14 0.14 0.14 0.16 -126- ACTUAL ESTIMATED FORECAST 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1992 LATIN AMERICA FRASH (S) 169 1.40 1,06 1,20 1.49 1.52 1.55 1.56 PYRITES (SA) O,05 0.05 0,07 0,08 0.10 0.12 0.14 O024 RECOVERED SULPHUR-OIL AND GAS (5) 0,75 O074 0,03 0.92 1.01 1.08 1.15 1.48 SULPHUR--GAS (5) ------~------TOTAL RECOVERED (OIL/GAS) 0.75 0.74 0.83 0.92 1.01 1,08 1.15 i.48 OTHER FORMS ------.---- SULPHUR (5) ------SULPHUR (SA) 0,21 0.20 0.28 0.31 0.35 0.38 0.42 0.53 TOTAL OTHER FORMS 0.21 0.20 0.28 0.31 0.35 0.38 0442 0.53 BRIMSTONE 2,44 2.14 1.89 2.12 2.50 2.60 2.70 3.04 TOTAL 2.70 2.39 2.24 2.51 2.95 3,10 3&26 3.81 DISCRETION-FRASH/PYRITES 1.74 1,45 1,13 1.28 1.59 1.64 1,69 1o80 NON-DISC*ALL OTHER, 0.96 0.94 1o11 1,23 1.36 1+46 1,57 2.01 -127- ACTUAL ESTIMATED FORECAST 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1992 HEAR EAST FRASCH AND NATIVE SULPHUR (S) 0.10 0.04 0.33 0.55 0,67 0,74 0.79 0.80 PYRITES (SA) ------ RECOVERED SULPHUR (OIL AND GAS)(S) 0.79 1.08 0.93 1.32 2,04 2.47 2.71 4.33 SULPHUR (GAS)(S) ------ TOTAL RECOVERED (OIL/GAS) 0.79 1,08 0.93 1.32 2.04 2.47 2.71 4.33 OTHER FORMS SULPHUR (S) ------SULPHUR (SA) TOTAL OTHER FORMS ------ BRIMSTONE 0.89 1.12 1.26 1,87 2.71 3.21 3.50 5,13 TOTAL 0,89 1.12 l126 1,87 2.71 3o21 3o50 5,13 DISCRETION-FRASH/PYRITES 0610 0.04 O033 0.55 0.67 0,74 0.79 0.80 NON-DISC*ALL OTiHER. 0,79 1,08 0.93 1.32 2,04 2.47 2.71 4.33 28- ACTUAL ESTIMATED FORECAST 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1992 FAR EAST FRASCH AND NATIVE SULPHUR (5) - - - - PYRITE (SA) 0401 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 RECOVERED SULPHUR (OIL AND GAS)(S) ------SULPHUR (GAS) (SA) - TOTAL RECOVERED (OIL/GAS) OTHER FORMS SULPHUR (S) - - - - - SULPHUR (SA) 0.15 0.17 0.20 0.22 0.39 0.43 0.45 0.58 TOTAL OTHIER FORMS O,15 0c17 0,20 0.22 0.39 0.43 0.45 0,58 BRIMSTONE - TOTAL 0,16 0.18 0.21 0.23 0,40 0.44 0.46 0.59 DI!CRETION-FRASH/PYRITES 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 NON--DISC*ALL OTHER. 0.15 0.17 O.20 O022 0.39 0.43 0.45 0.58 -129- ACTUAL ESTIMATED FORECAST 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1992 EASTERN EUROPE FRASCH AND NATIVE SULPHUR (S) 6.95 7.18 7620 7.15 7,30 7.50 7.60 9.30 PYRITES (SA) 4.41 4.50 4.69 4.79 5.00 5.13 5.28 5.71 RECOVERED SULPHUR-OIL AND GAS)(S) 1.82 1.86 2.05 2,31 2.41 2.57 2.69 5.74 SULPHUR (GAS)(S) ------ TOTAL RECOVERED (OIL/GAS) 1.82 1.86 2,05 2.31 2.41 2.57 2.69 5.74 OTHER FORMS ------SULPHUR (5) ------SULPHUR (SA) 2.52 2.51 2+64 2,75 2.87 2.96 3,07 3.55 TOTAL OTHER FORMS 2,52 2.51 2.64 2.75 2.87 2.96 3.07 3,55 BRIMSTONE 8.77 9.04 9.25 9.46 9.71 10.07 10.29 15.04 TOTAL 15.70 16.05 16,58 17.00 17.58 18.16 18.64 24.30 DISCRETION-FRASH/PYRITES 11.36 11,68 11.89 11.94 12.30 12.63 12.88 15.01 NON-DISCoALL OTHER, 4,34 4.37 4.69 5,06 5.28 5.53 5.76 9.29 -130- ACTUAL ESTIMATED FORECAST 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1992 CENTRALLY PLANNED (ASIA) FRASCH AND NATIVE SULPHUR (S) 0,19 0.20 0,21 0,22 0.23 PYRITES (SA) 0.25 0.27 0.35 2.06 2.16 2.36 2+47 2,57 2.68 2.79 3.09 RECOVERED SULPHUR -OIL AND GAS (S) 0615 0,16 0416 0,16 0.17 0.17 0.17 0.29 SULPHUR (GAS)(S) ------TOTAL RECOVERED (OIL/GAS) 0.15 0.16 0.16 0.16 0+17 0.17 0.17 0,29 OTHER FORMS SULPHUR (5) ------SULPHUR (SA) 0.29 0.31 0,32 0.33 033 0,33 0+33 0,46 TOTAL OTHER FORMS 0.29 0.31 032 0o33 0*33 0+33 0,33 0+46 BRIMSTONE 0.34 0&36 0,37 0.38 0.40 0,42 0*44 0.64 TOTAL 2.69 2.83 3,05 3.18 3,30 3.43 3,56 4.19 DISCRETION-FRASH/PYRITES 2,25 2.36 2,57 2.69 2.80 2+93 3.06 NON-DISC*ALL OTHIER. 3.44 0,44 0+47 0+48 0.49 0.50 0.50 0.50 0.75 -131- ACTUAL ESTIMATED FORECAST 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1992 TOTAL WORLD PRODUCTION FRASCH AND NATIVE SULPHUR (8) 15.28 13.03 12.00 13.32 14.69 15.01 15.21 16.01 PYRITES (SA) 10.54 10459 11.11 11,47 11.96 12.41 12684 14,42 RECOVERED SULPHUR -OIL (5) 8.39 8.,60 8.99 10.19 11,48 12.48 13.25 20.20 SULPHUR (GAS) (5) 10.12 9,76 9.97 10.19 10,19 10.21 10.27 10.51 TOTAL RECOVERED (OIL/GAS) 18.51 18o36 18.96 20.38 21,67 22+69 23.52 30.71 OTHER FORKS SULPHUR (8) 0,33 0,32 0.35 0.~38 0.42 0.46 0.50 0.74 SULPHUR (SA) 8.46 8,09 8.40 8.66 9.08 9.35 9.62 10.98 TOTAL OTHER FORMS 8.79 8.41 8.75 9.04 9.50 9.81 10.12 11,72 BRIMSTONE 25.35 22.67 22,.06 24,62 27v07 28.09 28.94 32.42 TOTAL 53.12 50.39 50.82 54.,21 57.82 59a,92 61.69 72.,86 DISCRETION-FRASH/PYRITES 25.82 23.62 23.11 24,79 26,65 27.42 28.05 30.43 NON-DISC+ALL OTHER. 27,30 26.77 27.71 29.42 31.17 32.50 33.64 42.43 PREPARED BYOOW. SHELDRICK WORLD BANK INDUSTRY DEPARTMENT -132- ANNEX 4 REGIONAL AND WORLD PRODUCTION BRIMSTONE 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1992 DEVELOPED MARKET ECONOMIES NORTH AMERICA 16.81 14.39 14.05 15.56 17.05 17.39 17.72 18.84 WESTERN EUROPE 3.61 3.57 3.38 3.58 3.28 3,34 3.44 OCEANIA 3.61 0.01 0.01 O.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 OTHER 0.02 1.22 1.08 1.09 1.09 1.11 1.11 1.12 1,14 ------TOTAL 21.68 19,05 18*54 20.25 21446 21.86 22.30 23.61 DEVELOPING MARKET ECONOMIES AFRICA - - - LATIN AMERICA 2.44 2.14 1,89 2.12 2.50 2,60 NEAR 2.70 3004 EAST 0.89 1.12 1.26 1.87 2.71 3.21 3.50 FAR EAST 5.13 TOTAL 3+33 3.26 3,15 3.99 5.21 5.81 6+20 8,17 CENTRALLY PLANNED ECONOMIES ASIA 0.34 0+36 0+37 0.38 0.40 0,42 0.44 EASTERN EUROPE 0.64 8.77 9,04 9.25 9+46 9.71 10.07 10.29 15.04 TOTAL 9,11 9o40 9.62 9.84 10+11 10.49 10,73 15.68 WORLD 34+12 31.71 31.31 34.08 36.78 38,16 39.23 47.46 -133- ANNEX 5 REGIONAL AND WORLD PRODUCTION (NON- BRIMST-ONE) SULPHiURIC ACID MILLION TONS OF SULPHUR EQUIVALENT 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1992 DEVELOPED MARKET ECONOMIES NORTH AMERICA 2.33 l,95 2.02 2.08 2.15 2.22 2.29 2.68 WESTERN EUlROPE 4.31 4.20 4,.28 4.42 4.58 4.79 4.93 5+74 OCEANIA 0.17 0.17 0,17 0.18 0.19 0.20 0.21 Oo24 OTHER 2.33 2.29 2+31 2,32 2+33 2+34 2+37 2.38 TOTAL 9+14 8,61 8.78 9+00 9+25 9.55 9.8O 11+04 DEVELOPING MARKET ECONOMIES AFRICA 0,16 0+16 0+16 0.17 0.17 0.17 0*1? 0.19 LATIN AMERICA 0.26 0+25 0,35 0+39 0+45 0.50 0+56 0+77 NEAR EAST ------FAR EAST 0.16 0418 0,21 0+23 0.40 0,44 0.46 0.59 TOTAL 0.58 0+59 0,72 0.79 1.02 1,11 119 1+55 CENTRALLY PLANNED ECONOMIES ASIA 2.35 2.47 2+68 2.80 2.90 3.01 3+12 3.55 EASTERN EUROPE 6+93 7.01 7.33 7.54 7+87 8.09 8,35 9+26 TOTAL 9+28 9+48 10,01 10+34 10.77 11.10 11.47 12,81 WORLD 19,00 18.68 19+51 20.13 21+04 21.76 22.46 25.40 -134- ANNEX 6 WORLD PHOSPHATE SUPPLY/DEMAND BALANCES (Million Metric Tons Of P205) 1981/82 1982/83 1983/84 1984/85 1985/86 1986/87 1987/88 (Actual ) DEVELOPED MARKET ECONOMIES North America Capacity 11.26 11.90 11.90 11.90 11.90 11.90 12.11 Acid Production 9.68 10.16 10.46 10.49 10.47 10.45 10.52 Other P 05 Production 0.89 0.91 0.93 0.95 0.95 0.95 0.95 Supply Eapability 10.57 11.07 11.39 11.44 11.42 11.40 11.47 Available Supply 10.04 10.52 10.82 10.86 10.85 10.83 10.89 Consumption 5.01 4.50 4.80 5.30 5.64 5.80 5.96 Surplus (-Deficit) 5.04 6.02 6.02 5.56 5.21 5.03 4.93 Western Europe Capacity 4.79 4.82 5.09 5.09 5.09 5.09 5.09 Acid Production 2.83 2.75 2.85 2.91 2.89 2.86 2.82 Other P205 Production 2.95 2.95 2.95 2.95 2.95 2.95 2.95 Supply Capability 5.78 5.70 5.80 5.86 5.84 5.81 5.77 Available Supply 5.49 5.41 5.51 5.57 5.55 5.52 5.48 Consumption 5.31 5.26 5.55 5.78 5.89 6.01 6.13 Surplus (-Deficit) 0.18 0.15 -0.04 -0.21 -0.34 -0.49 -0.65 Oceania Capacity 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 0.29 Acid Production 0.18 0.22 0.23 0.23 0.23 0.23 0.23 Other P? 0 Production 1.19 1.19 1.21 1.23 1.23 1.23 1.23 Supply Fapability 1.37 1.41 1.44 1.46 1.46 1.46 1.46 Available Supply 1.30 1.34 1.37 1.39 1.39 1.39 1.39 Consumption 1.15 1.04 1.08 1.13 1.17 1.22 1.28 Surplus (-Deficit) 0.15 0.30 0.29 0.26 0.22 0.17 0.11 Other Developed Market Economies Capacity 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 Acid Production 1.42 1.49 1.49 1.49 1.47 1.45 1.44 Other P205 Production 0.44 0.43 0.43 0.43 0.43 0.43 0.43 Supply Capability 1.86 1.92 1.92 1.92 1.90 1.88 1.87 Available Supply 1.77 1.83 1.83 1.82 1.80 1.79 1.77 Consumption 1.27 1.23 1.25 1.28 1.30 1.34 1.37 Surplus (-Deficit) 0.50 0.60 0.58 0.54 0.50 0.45 0.41 -135- 1981/82 1982/83 1983/84 1984/85 1985/86 1986/87 1987/88 (Actual) Total Developed Market Economies Capacity 18.33 19.00 19.28 19.28 19.28 19.28 19.49 Acid Production 14.12 14.62 15.03 15.12 15.06 15.00 15.00 Other P205 Production 5.47 5.48 5.52 5.56 5.56 5.56 5.56 Supply Capability 19.59 20.10 20.55 20.68 20.62 20.56 20.56 Available Supply 18.61 19.09 19.53 19.64 19.59 19.53 19.53 Consumption 12.73 12.02 12.68 13.48 14.00 14.37 14.73 Surplus (-Deficit) 5.88 7.07 6.85 6.16 5.59 5.16 4.80 DEVELOPING MARKET ECONOMIES Africa Capacity 2.10 2.59 2.59 3.14 3.47 4.13 4.79 Acid Production 1.46 1.67 1.85 2.05 2.32 2.65 3.09 Other P205 Production 0.22 0.23 0.24 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.28 Supply Capability 1.68 1.90 2.09 2.30 2.57 2.90 3.37 Available Supply 1.59 1.81 1.99 2.18 2.44 2.75 3.20 Consumption 0.55 0.50 0.55 0.58 0.62 0.64 0.71 Surplus (-Deficit) 1.04 1.31 1.44 1.60 1.82 2.11 2.50 Latin Amercia Capacity 1.32 1.32 1.48 1.48 1.88 1.88 1.88 Acid Production 0.81 0.86 0.92 0.97 1.08 1.21 1.26 Other P205 Production 0.71 0.74 0.76 0.77 0.77 0.77 0.80 Supply Capability 1.52 1.60 1.68 1.74 1.85 1.98 2.06 Available Supply 1.44 1.52 1.59 1.65 1.76 1.89 1.96 Consumption 2.18 2.14 2.29 2.44 2.58 2.84 3.10 Surplus (-Deficit) -0.74 -0.62 -0.70 -0.79 -0.82 -0.95 -1.14 Near East Capacity 0.84 1.82 1.89 1.89 1.89 1.89 1.89 Acid Production 0.43 0.68 1.01 1.15 1.21 1.21 1.21 Other P205 Production 0.26 0.26 0.28 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.31 Supply Capability 0.69 0.94 1.29 1.46 1.52 1.52 1.52 Available Supply 0.66 0.89 1.23 1.39 1.45 1.45 1.45 Consumption 1.05 1.14 1.23 1.33 1.43 1.55 1.68 Surplus (-Deficit) -0.40 -0.25 0.00 0.06 0.02 -0.10 -0.23 -136- 1981/82 1982/83 1983/84 1984/85 1985/86 1986/87 1987/88 (Actual) Far East Capacity 1.27 1.27 1.30 1.44 1.53 2.07 Acid Production 2.18 0.85 0.82 080 0.86 0.93 1.10 Other P205 1.32 Production 0.62 0.66 0.68 0.68 0.68 0.68 Supply Capability 0.68 1.47 1.48 1.48 1.54 1.61 1.78 Available 2.02 Supply 1.39 1.41 1.41 1.46 1653 1.69 Consumption 1.92 2.33 2.50 2.70 2.90 3.10 3.30 3.50 Surplus (-Deficit) -0.94 -1.09 -1.29 -1.44 -1.57 -1.61 -1.58 Total Developing Market Economies Capacity 5.52 7.00 7.26 7.99 8.76 9.96 Acid Production 10.73 3.54 4.03 4.59 5.03 5.54 6.18 Other P205 6.89 Production 1.81 1.89 1.96 2.01 2.01 2.01 2.09 Supply Capability 5.35 5.92 6.55 7.04 7.55 8.19 Available 8.97 Supply 5.09 5.63 6.22 6.68 7.17 7.78 Consumption 8.52 6.12 6.28 6.77 7.25 7.73 8.33 -8.99 Surplus (-Deficit) -1.03 -0.65 -0.55 -0.57 -0.56 -0.55 -0.46 CENTRALLY PLANNED ECONOMIES Socialist Asia Capacity 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 0.07 Acid Production 0.07 0.03 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 Other P205 Production 2.86 2.97 3.09 3.20 3.32 3.43 3.60 Supply Capability 2.75 2.85 2.96 3.06 3.17 3.28 Available 3.44 Supply 2.75 2.85 2.96 3.06 3.17 3.28 Consumption 3.44 3.10 3.28 3.47 3.58 3.69 3.80 3.92 Surplus (-Deficit) -0.35 -043 -0.51 -0.52 -0.52 -0.52 -0.48 Eastern Europe Capacity 5.74 6.91 7.19 7.19 7.45 7.45 Acid Production 7.45 4.00 4.46 4.96 5.13 5.26 5.34 5.36 Other P205 Production 4.25 4.07 4.20 4.16 4.33 4.50 4.69 Supply Capability 8.25 8.53 8.98 9.29 9.59 9.84 10.05 Available Supply 7.84 8.10 8.53 8.83 9.11 9.35 Consumption 9.55 8.96 9.32 9.57 9.82 10.07 10.31 10.55 Surplus (-Deficit) -1.12 -1.22 -1.04 -0.99 -0.96 -0.96 -1.00 -137- 1981/82 1982/83 1983/84 1984/85 1985/86 1986/87 1987/88 (Actual) Total Centrally Planned Economies Capacity 5.81 6.98 7.23 7.23 7.52 7.52 7.52 Acid Production 4.03 4.48 4.98 5.15 5.28 5.36 5.38 Other P205 Production 7.11 7.04 7.11 7.36 7.65 7.93 8.29 Supply Capability 11.14 11.52 12.09 12.51 12.93 13.29 13.67 Available Supply 10.58 10.95 11.49 11.87 12.28 12.63 12.98 Consumption 12.06 12.60 13.04 13.40 13.76 14.11 14.47 Surplus (-Deficit) -1.48 -1.65 -1.55 -1.51 -1 48 -1.48 -1.49 WORLD TOTAL Capacity 29.66 32.98 33.79 34.52 35.55 36.75 37.73 Acid Production 21.70 23.14 24.61 25.30 25.88 26.53 27.26 Other P205 Production 14.39 14.41 14.59 14.93 15.22 15.50 15.94 Supply Capability 36.09 37.55 39.20 40.23 41.10 42.03 43.20 Available Supply 34.28 35.67 37.24 38.21 39.05 39,1 41.04 Consumption 30.91 30.90 32.49 34.13 35.49 36.61 38.19 Surplus (-Deficit) 3.37 4.77 4.75 4.08 3.56 3.12 2.85 -138- Notes on Terminology 1. "Capacity": refers to nominal capacity or name plate capacity of phosphoric acid plants. 2. "Acid Production": This is the acid production available for fertil- izer production. It is derived from phosphoric acid supply capability by subtracting industrial and technical uses of phosphoric acid from it, and then adjusting it for processing and conversion losses (6%). The phos- phoric acid supply capability is estimated by applying country-specific operating rates, based on past performance and other factors, to existing capacity and phased-in new capacity. On average changes in capacity are assumed to take place in the mid-year. Hence, all expansions and closures are phased-in over a two year period, while the new capacity is phased-in as follows: Developed Market Economies (excluding U.S.) and Developing Market Economies Fertilizer Year Centrally Planned Europe and Centrally Planned Asia U.S. 1 4 Jb.5% 45% 2 85% 75.0% 95% 3 95% 92.5% 100% 4 100% 100.0% 100% 3. "Other P 05 Production": includes all other phosphate fertilizers not derived directfy from phosphoric acid such as single superphosphate, basic slag, thermal phosphates, nitrophosphate (80-100%, depending on the region), secondary rock in triple superphosphate production (30%) and ground phosphate rock used as fertilizers. Production is based on existing capacity and anticipated changes in capacity. 4. "'Supply Capability": is the sum of "acid production" and "other P 0 production. ' 2 5 5. "Available Supply": is assumed to be 95% of "supply capability" for all regions; this adjustment accounts for normal stock changes, transpor- tation and distribution losses and in-transit shipments. 6. "Consumption": refers estimated use for 1981-82 and forecast thereafter. demand 7. "Surplus (Deficit)": refers to difference between 'available supply' and 'consumption'. -139- ANNEX 7 REGIONAL AND WORLD DEMAND FOR SULPHURIC ACID FOR PHOSPHATE FERTILIZERS MILLION TONS OF SULPHUR EQUIVALENT 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1992 DEVELOPED MARKET ECONOMIES NORTH AMERICA 8,45 6.96 7.21 7.72 8a18 8.57 8.94 10.77 WESTERN EUROPE 3.36 3+00 3.04 3+24 3+42 3.21 3+10 2,94 OCEANIA 0,70 0+41 0.52 0.55 06O 0,66 0.72 O085 OTHER 1.20 0+86 0.89 1,03 1+14 1.27 1+39 1+67 TOTAL 13,71 11+23 11,66 12.54 13,34 13.71 14+15 16+23 DEVELOPING MARKET ECONOMIES AFRICA 1.56 1.78 1.96 2.16 2.43 2.76 3620 5.00 LATIN AMERICA 097 1.05 1.16 l122 1,37 1.42 1.54 lo68 NEAR EAST 0+53 0.70 0+87 1.02 1.12 1620 1.25 1.65 FAR EAST 1.09 1l11 1.14 1.16 1.22 1,40 1+48 1l80 TOTAL 4+15 4+64 5.13 5,56 6,14 6.78 7+47 10t13 CENTRALLY PLANNED ECONOMIES ASIA 1.46 1.54 1.64 1.73 1.82 1.91 2.01 2.47 EASTERN EUROPE 5,82 6,19 6.73 6.91 7+06 7.29 7.40 8.70 ------TOTAL 7,28 7+73 8.37 8.64 8+88 9.20 9.41 11,17 WORLD 25.14 23,60 2516 26.74 28.36 29,69 31,03 37+53 ==3 S--O-- = -- ======- = -14O- 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1992 DEVELOPED MARKET ECONOMIES NORTH AMERICA 8.60 7t10 7.35 7.87 8.33 8.72 9.10 10.94 WESTERN EUROPE 3t84 3.45 3.50 3t71 3.90 3.70 3e60 3.50 OCEANIA 0,71 0.42 0.53 0*56 0.61 0.67 0.73 0,86 OTHER 1,48 1*12 1,16 1,30 1.42 1.55 1.68 1.99 TOTAL 14.63 12,09 12.54 13,44 14.26 l4.64 15,11 17.29 DEVELOPING MARKET ECONOMIES AFRICA 1.61 183 2*01 2,21 2.48 2.81 3.25 5.06 LATIN AMERICA 1,39 1,45 1,57 1.64 1.80 1.85 1,98 2.17 NEAR EAST 0,58 0.75 0.92 1.07 1,17 1.25 1.30 1.71 FAR EAST 1,32 1,33 1.36 1.39 1.45 1.64 1.72 2.07 TOTAL 4.90 5.36 5.86 6.31 6.90 7.55 8.25 11.01 CENTRALLY PLANNED ECONOMIES ASIA l.81 1,90 2.00 2.10 2.20 2.30 2.40 2.90 EASTERN EUROPE 6,34 6.72 ~~- 7.27 7,46 7,62 7.86 7.99 9.35 ------TOTAL 8,15 8.62 9,27 9.56 9.82 10.16 10o39 12.25 WORLD 27,68 26e07 27,67 29.31 30.98 32.35 33.75 40.55 -141- ANNEX 8 REGIONAL AND WORLD DEMAND FOR SULPHUR FOR INDUSTRIAL USE MILLION TONS OF SULPHUR EQUIVALENT 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1992 DEVELOPED MARKET ECONOMIES NORTH AMERICA 4.92 3.75 3,95 4.28 4.36 4.64 4.81 5.50 WESTERN EUROPE 4.88 4.40 4.51 4,68 4.85 5.00 5.15 5,96 OCEANIA 0.20 0.15 0.17 0,19 0.21 0.22 0.23 0.27 OTHER 1.96 1.80 185 1,90 1.96 2,02 2.08 2.41 TOTAL 11*96 10,10 10.48 11.05 11,38 11.88 12.27 14.14 DEVELOPING MARKET ECONOMIES AFRICA 0.29 0.28 0,29 0.30 O031 032 0.33 0.39 LATIN AMERICA 0,68 0.65 0.67 0.69 0.72 0.74 0.77 0.92 NEAR EAST 0O15 0.14 0.14 0.15 0.16 0.16 0.17 0.20 FAR EAST 0.65 0.62 0.64 0.66 0.69 0.71 0.74 0.87 TOTAL 1,77 1,69 1,74 1.80 l188 1,93 2+01 2+38 CENTRALLY PLANNED ECONOMIES ASIA 1+08 1.13 1+19 1.24 1,31 1.37 1+44 1,84 EASTERN EUROPE 5.50 5e67 5,84 6,03 6.23 6+40 6+61 7.69 TOTAL 6,58 6+80 7+03 7,27 7.54 7+77 8+05 9+53 WORLD 20.31 18,59 19.25 20.12 20,80 21.58 22+33 26+05 -142- ANNEX 9 REGIONAL AND WORLD DEMAND FOR NON-SULPHIURIC ACID USE OF SULPHUR MILLION TONS OF SULPIIUR EQUIVALENT 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1992 DEVELOPED MARKET ECONOMIES NORTH AMERICA 1.98 1.75 1.80 1485 191 1.97 2.03 2.35 WESTERN EUROPE 1.22 1.15 1,17 OCEANIA 1.21 1.25 1.29 1033 1.50 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.06 0.06 OTHER 0.06 0.07 0.30 0.28 0.29 0.30 0.32 0,33 0.34 0.40 ------TOTAL ------3.55 3.23 3,31 3,41 3t54 3.65 3.76 4.32 DEVELOPING MARKET ECONOMIES AFRICA 0.04 0.04 t004 0.O4 0,04 LATIN AMERICA 0,04 O.O4 0.05 0.30 0.29 0,29 0.30 0.32 0.33 0.34 0.40 NEAR EAST 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03 FAR EAST 0.03 0,04 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.17 0,17 0.18 0.20 0.22 TOTAL 0.53 0.52 0.52 0.54 0.56 0.58 0.61 0*71 CENTRALLY PLANNED ECONOMIES ASIA 0,09 0.09 0.10 0,10 0,10 0.11 EASTERN EUROPE O,11 0.13 1.60 1.67 1,73 1.79 1.85 1*92 1,99 2,36 TOTAL 1.69 1,76 1,83 1,89 1.95 2.03 2.10 2.49 WORLD 5,77 551 5.66 5.84 6.05 6,26 6,47 7.52 ------=C-=--=---= = ------3- =------143- ANEX 10 SULPHUR DEMAND BY REGION AND SOURCE MILLION TONS OF SULPHUR EQUIVALENT ACTUAL ESTIMATED FORECAST 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1992 DEVELOPED MARKET ECONOMIES NORTH AMERICA FERTILIZER USE (SA) NON-PHOSPHATE 0.15 0.14 0*14 0.15 0.15 0.15 0.16 0617 PHOSPHATE 8.45 6.96 7.21 7.72 8.18 8.57 8.94 10.77 ~~- - -*------TOTAL 8.60 7.10 7.35 7e.87 8.33 8.72 9.10 10.94 INDUSTRIAL USE SULPHURIC ACID 4.92 3.75 3.95 4.28 4.36 4.64 4.81 5.50 ELEMENTAL SULPHUR 1.598 1.75 1.80 1.85 1.91 1.97 2.03 2.35 TOTAL INDUSTRIAL USE 6.90 5.50 5.75 6.13 6.27 6.o61 6.84 7.85 TOTAL - NORTH AMERICA 15.50 12.60 13.10 14.00 14.60 15.33 15.94 18.79 WESTERN EUROPE FERTILIZEER USE (SA) NON-PHOSPHATE 0.48 0.45 0.46 047 0.48 0.49 0650 0.56 PHOSPHATE 3.36 3.00 3.04 3.24 3.42 3.21 3.10 2.94 TOTAL 3.84 3.45 3.50 3+71 3,90 3,70 3.60 3,50 INDUSTRIAL USE SULPHURIC ACID 4*88 4.40 4.51 4.68 4.85 5.00 5*15 5.96 ELEMENTAL SULPHUR 1.22 1.155 1.17 1.21 1.25 1.29 1.33 1.50 TOTAL INDUSTRIAL USE 6a.10 5.55 5,68 589 6.10 6.29 6.48 7.46 TOTAL - WEST EUROPE 9.94 9.00 9.18 9.60 10.00 99 10.08 10.96 -144- ACTUAL ESTIMATED FORECAST 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1992 OCEANEA FERTILIZER USE (SA> NON-PHOSPHATE 0.01 0.01 0.01 0101 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 PHOSPHATE 0.70 0.41 052 0,55 0.60 0.66 0.72 0.85 TOTAL 0.71 O042 0.53 O056 0.61 0.67 O073 0,86 INDUSTRIAL USE SULPHURIC ACID 0.20 0.15 0.17 0.19 0.21 0.22 0.23 0.27 ELEMENTAL SULPHUR 0,05 0.05 0.05 0.05 006 006 0.06 0.07 TOTAL INDUSTRIAL USE O.25 0.20 0*22 0.24 0.27 0.28 0.29 0.34 TOTAL - OCEANIA 0.96 0.62 0.75 0.80 0*88 0+95 1,02 1.20 -145- ACTUAL ESTIMATED FORECAST 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1992 OTHER DEVELOPED MARKET ECONOMIES FERTILIZER USE (SA) NON-PHOSPHATE O.28 0,26 0s.27 0.27 0.28 028 0.29 0.32 PHOSPHATE 1,20 0.86 0.89 1,03 1.14 1,27 1.39 1,67 SULPHIURIC ACID 1.48 1,12 1.6 1.30 1,42 1i55 1,68 1.99 INDUSTRIAL USE SULPHURIC ACID 1.96 1.80 1.85 1.90 1.96 2.02 2,08 2.41 ELEMENTAL SULPHUR 0.30 0.28 0,29 0.e30 0.32 0*33 0.,34 0*40 TOTAL INDUSTRIAL USE 2.26 2.08 2.14 2.20 2.28 2.35 2,42 2.81 TOTAL -- OTHER 3.74 3.20 3,30 3.50 3.70 3.90 4.10 4.80 -146- ACTUAL ESTIMATED FORECAST 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1992 DEVELOPING MARKET ECONOMIES AFRICA FERTILIZER USE (SA) NON-PHOSPHATE 0.05 0.05 0,05 0,05 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.06 PHOSPHATE 1.56 1.78 1*9i 2.16 2,43 2.76 3.20 5.00 TOTAL 1,61 1,83 2.01 2,21 2,48 2.81 3.25 5.06 INDUSTRIAL USE SULPHURIC ACID 0.29 0,28 0.29 0.30 0.31 0.32 ELEMENTAL SULPHUR 0.33 0.39 0.04 0404 0e04 0.04 0404 0.04 0.04 0.05 TOTAL INDUSTRIAL USE 0.33 0,32 0,33 0.34 0.35 0.36 0.37 0.44 TOTAL - AFRICA 1.94 2o15 2.34 2.55 2.83 3.17 3.62 5050 -:=-= --- . -=------=2------O- -147- ACTUAL ESTIMATED FORECAST 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1992 LATIN AMERICA FERTILIZER USE (SA) NON-PHOSPHATE 0042 0.40 0.41 0.42 0.43 0.43 0.44 0.49 PHOSPHATE 0.97 1.05 1.16 1.22 1.37 1.42 1.54 1.68 TOTAL 1,39 1,45 157 1.64 1.80 1.85 1.98 2.17 INDUSTRIAL USE SULPHURIC ACID 0.68 0.65 0.67 0V69 0.72 0.74 0*77 0,92 ELEMENTAL SULPHUR 0.30 0.29 r%d 29 0.30 O.32 0,33 0.34 0,40 ------TOTAL INDUSTRIAL USE O.98 0,94 0.96 0.99 1.04 1.07 1,11 1.32 TOTAL - LATIN AMERICA 2,37 2,39 2,53 2.63 2,84 2.92 3.09 3.49 - ~~~~= ------=-1==-S:=-=-===-=--=------148- ACTUAL ESTIMATED FORECAST 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1992 NEAR EAST FERTILIZER USE (SA) NON-PHOSPHATE 0.05 0.05 0,05 0Q05 0.05 0.,05 0b05 PHOSPHATE 0*06 0.53 0.70 0.87 1.02 1.12 1.20 1.25 1.65 TOTAL 0.58 0.75 0,92 1.07 1.17 1.25 1.30 1,71 INDUSTRIAL USE SULPHURIC ACID 0.15 0.14 0.14 O.15 0.16 0.16 0,17 0,20 ELEMENTAL SULPHUR 0.03 O,03 0.03 0,03 0.03 0.03 0o03 0+04 _ ------,.- -- - TOTAL INDUSTRIAL USE 0.18 0.17 0+17 0,18 0+19 0+19 0+20 024 TOTAL - NEAR EAST 0.76 0,92 1+09 1,25 1,36 1.44 1+50 1+95 FAR EAST FERTILIZER USE (SA) NON-PHOSPHATE 0,23 0,22 0.22 0,23 0+23 0.24 0.24 0.27 PHOSPHATE 1+09 1.11 1+14 1.16 1.22 1+40 1.48 1,80 TOTAL 1.32 1,33 1,36 1.39 1+45 1,64 1.72 2+07 INDUSTRIAL USE SULPHURIC ACID 0.65 0.62 0.64 0.66 0+69 0.71 0.74 0,87 ELEMENTAL SULPHUR 0,16 O0l6 0+16 0.17 0+17 0+18 0.20 0+22 TOTAL INDUSTRIAL USE 0+81 0.78 0.80 0.83 0+86 O089 0.94 1+09 TOTAL - FAR EAST 2.13 2.11 2.16 2,22 2.31 2,53 2.66 3+16 = =-r- = - - - = - - - = - - - - = = -149- ACTUAL ESTIMATED FORECAST 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1992 CENTRALLY PLANNED ECONOMIES ASIA FERTILIZER USE (SA) NON-PHOSPHATE 0,35 0.36 0.36 O.37 0.38 0.39 0.39 0.43 PHOSPHATE 1.46 1.54 l164 1.73 1,82 1,91 2.o1 2.47 TOTAL 1.81 1.90 2.00 2,10 2,20 2.30 2.40 2.90 INDUSTRIAL USE SULPHURIC ACID 1,08 1.13 1.19 1.24 1.31 1.37 1.44 1.84 ELEMENTAL SULPHUR 0,09 0,09 0.10 0,10 0.10 0.11 0.11 0.13 TOTAL INDUSTRIAL USE 1,17 1,22 1.29 134 1,41 1,48 1.55 1+97 TOTAL -CENTRALLY PLANNED (ASIA) 2.98 3+12 3.29 3,44 Zi6l 3.78 3.95 4+87 EAST EUROPE FERTILIZER USE (SA) NON-PHOSPHATE 0.52 0,53 0,54 0,55 0+56 0o.57 0o59 0*65 PHIOSPHATE 5.82 6.19 6.73 6.91 7+06 7+29 7+40 8+70 TOTAL 6+34 6+72 7.27 7.46 7,62 7+86 7.99 9+35 INDUSTRIAL USE SULPHURIC ACID 5,50 5+67 5.84 6,03 6.23 6,40 6+61 7.69 ELEMENTAL SULPHUR 1,60 1,67 1.73 1.79 1.85 1,92 1.99 2+36 TOTAL INDUSTRIAL USE 7.10 7,34 7.57 7+82 8.08 8.32 8.60 10.05 TOTAL - EUROPE 13.44 14.06 14.84 15+28 15+70 16.18 16.59 19.40 -150- ACTUAL ESTIMATED FORECAST 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1992 TOTAL WIORLD DEMAND FERTILIZER USE (SA) NON-PHOSPHATE 2,54 2.47 2.51 2h57 2.62 2.66 2,72 3.02 PHOSPHATE 25.14 23.60 25.16 26.74 28.36 29 69 31.03 37.53 ------TOTAL 27,68 26,07 27.67 29.31 30,98 32.35 33,75 40,55 INDUSTRIAL USE SULPHURIC ACID 20.31 18,59 19,25 20.12 20.80 21.58 22.33 26,05 ELEMENTAL SULPHUR 5.77 5,51 5.66 5684 6.05 6,26 6,47 7652 ------TOTAL INDUSTRIAL USE 26,08 24,10 24.91 25.96 26o85 27,84 28,80 33.57 L -- 6 52---#---W D 5 - -*--- TOTAL -* %JRLI3 53,76 50017 52.58 55,27 57.83 60,19 62.55 74.12 ------= - -- =3 -151- ANNEX 11 REGION AND WORLD SULPHUR SUPPLY/DEMAND AND BALANCES MILLION TONS OF SULPHUR EQUIVALENT ACTUAL ESTIMATED FORECAST 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1992 DEVELOPED MARKET ECONOMIES NORTH AMERICA PRODUCTION 19.14 16,34 16.07 17o64 19.20 19.61 20.01 21 .52 DEMAND 15,50 12o60 13,10 14.00 14.60 15.33 15.94 18o79 BALANCE 3,64 3,74 2.97 3.64 4.60 4.28 4.07 2.73 WEST EUROPE PRODUCTION 7,95 7o77 7.66 8.00 7.86 8.13 8.37 9.35 DEMAND 9.94 9.00 9.18 9.60 10,00 9.99 10,08 10,96 BALANCE (1,99) (1,23) (1*52) (1,60) (2.14) (1,86) (1.71) (1.61) OCEANI A PRODUCTION o018 0.18 0,19 0,20 0.21 0.22 0.23 0.26 DEMAND 0.96 0.62 0075 0.80 0.88 0.95 1,02 1.20 BALANCE (0*78) (0,44) (0.56) (0.60) (0.67) (0,73) (0,79) (0,94) OTHERS PRODUCTION 3*55 3.37 3.40 3,41 3.44 3.45 3.49 3.52 DEMAND 3.74 3.20 3,30 3.50 3,70 3,90 4,10 4+BO BALANCE (0,19) 0*17 OlO (0,09) (0.26) (0.45) (0,61) (1.28) -152- ACTUAL ESTIMATED FORECAST 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1992 DEVELOPING ECONOMIES AFRICA PRODUCTION 0.16 0.16 0.16 0.17 0.17 O.17 0.17 0.19 DEMAND 1+94 2,15 2+34 2455 2.83 3.17 3.62 5,50 BALANCE (1.78) (1.99) (2.18) (2.38) (2+66) (3+00) (3.45) (5.31) LATIN AMERICA PRODUCTION 2,70 2o39 2+24 2651 2+95 3.10 3.26 3.81 DEMAND 2.37 2+39 2.53 42+63 2.84 2.92 BALANCE 3.09 3.49 0.33 - (0.29) (0.12) 0.11 0,18 0.17 0.32 NEAR EAST PRODUCTION 0.89 1.12 1.26 1.87 2+71 3.21 3,50 DEMAND 5.13 0.76 0+92 1+09 1+25 1+36 1.44 BALANCE 1+50 1+95 0,13 0.20 0.17 0,62 1+35 1.77 2,00 3.18 FAR EAST PRODUCTION 0.16 0,18 0.21 0.23 0.40 0,44 0646 DEMAND 0.59 2.13 2.11 2.16 2+22 2.31 2.53 2.66 3,16 BALANCE (1,97) (1+93) (1,95) (1.99) (1.91) (2.09) (2+20) (2+57) CENTRALLY PLANNED ECONOMIES USSR AND EASTERN EUROPE PRODUCTION 15,70 16.05 16.58 17,00 17.58 18.16 18.64 24.30 DEMAND 13+44 14.06 14+84 15.28 15+70 16,18 16.59 BALANCE 19.40 2.26 1.99 1.74 1,72 1,88 1698 2.05 4+90 CENTRALLY PLANNED ASIA PRODUCTION 2,69 2.83 3.05 3+18 3.30 3.43 3.56 DEMAND 4,19 2+98 3,12 3+29 3+44 3+61 3,78 3.95 4.87 BALANCE (0+29) (0,29) (0.24) (0.26) (0.31) (0+35) (O.39) (0.68) -153- ACTUAL ESTIMATED FORECAST 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1992 DEVELOPED MARKET ECONOMIES PRODUCTION 30*82 27.66 27.32 29.25 30.71 31.41 32.10 34.65 DEMAND 30.14 25.42 26.33 27.90 29.18 30t17 31.14 35,75 BALANCES 0.68 2.24 0.99 1.35 1.53 1.24 0.96 (1.10) DEVELOPING MARKET ECONOMIES PRODUCTION 3.91 3.85 3.87 4.78 6.23 6.92 7.39 9.72 DEMAND 7,20 7.57 8*12 8.65 9.34 10.06 10.87 14.10 BALANCE (3.29) (3.72) (4.25) (3.87) (3.11) (3.14) (3.48) (4*38) ALL MARKET ECONOMIES PRODUCTION 34.73 31.51 31.19 34.03 36.94 38.33 39,49 44.37 DEMAND 37#34 32.99 34.45 36.55 38.52 40t23 42.01 49.85 BALANCE (2.61) (1.48) (3.26) (2.52) (1,58) (1,90) (2.52) (5.48) CENTRALLY PLANNED ECONOMIES PRODUCTION 18.39 1.8.88 19.63 20.18 20,88 21.59 22.20 28.49 DEMAND 16.42 17.18 18,13 18,72 19.31 19.96 20.54 24.27 BALANCE 1,97 1.70 1.50 1.46 1.57 1.63 1.66 4.22 WORLD PRODUCTION 53.12 50.39 50.82 54.21 57.82 59,92 61.69 72.86 DEMAND 53.76 50,17 52.58 55.27 57,83 60.19 62.55 74.12 BALANCE (0.64) 0.22 (1.76) (1.06) (0.01) (0.27) (Oo86) (1.26) ANNEX 12 BRIMSTOWADE WORLD BRIMSTONE DELIVERIES - 1982 SAUDI FRANCE W. GERMANY POLAND CANADA U.S.A. MEXICO JAPAN ARABIA OTHER DOMESTIC TOTAL Austria - 39.40 37.80 - 60.00 137.20 Belgium 42.00 29.60 60.20 34.80 156.20 - - - - 130.00 Denmark 452.80 - 63.70 .40 ------10.00 74.10 Finland 10.20 15.00 42.20 ------20.00 87.40 France - 29.40 336.80 97.30 26.70 - - - - 865.00 1,355.20 W. Germany - - 121.10 87.90 51.10 - - - - 560.00 820.10 Greece 24.00 24.00 66.20 29.50 28.60 - - 3.20 110.00 Italy 285.50 47.40 36.40 51.50 31.60 39.20 15.90 - 29.00 15.80 70.00 336.80 Netherlands 78.90 225.00 36.80 - 34.00 - - - - 70.00 444.70 Norway ------5.00 5.00 Portugal 61.10 - 1.00 62.10 Spain 69.90 - - 5.50 - - - 35.00 110.40 Sweden - 1.80 8.30 ------30.00 40.10 Switzerland - 34.60 - - - - 4.00 Turkey 38.60 - - - 16.20 14.50 32.60 - 35.00 - 65.00 163.30 U.K. 222.20 68.30 283.40 34.80 101.60 100.30 - - 3.00 79.00 892.60 WEST EUROPE 555.70 567.20 1,044.70 332.10 451.90 154.30 - 64.00 22.00 2,114.00 5,305.90 Bulgaria - - 63.20 - 10.90 - - 10.00 - 12.00 96.10 Czechoslovakia - - 486.70 - - - 18.00 Germany 504.70 D.R. - - 165.60 - - 75.00 Hungary 240.60 - - 140.10 ------10.00 Poland 150.10 ------800.00 800.00 Romania - - 221.40 - 49.60 - - - - 39.00 310.00 U.S.S.R. - - 817.60 248.70 28.00 51.10 - - - 4,900.00 6,045.40 Yugoslavia EAST EUROPE - .30 1,949.30 248.70 88.50 51.10 - 10.00 - 5,864.00 8,211.90 SAUDI FRANCE W. GERMANY POLAND CANADA U.S.A. MEXICO JAPAN ARABIA OTHER DOMESTIC TOTAL Algeria - 20.90 - - 30.00 - 50.90 Egypt - - - 14.30 42.10 20.00 - - - 2.00 78.40 Gabon 5.50 - - -- - 5.50 Ivory Coast 4.00 - - - - - 4.00 Morocco 18.10 - 460.80 395.80 51.80 32.80 - 17.50 - - 976.80 Niger 43.20 - - - - - 43.20 Nigeria ------Senegal - 5.70 ------5.70 South Africa - - 598.80 - - - - - 40.00 638.80 Tanzania ------10.00 - - 10.00 Togo ------Tunisia 51.50 10.50 203.30 374.80 68.50 18.50 - 91.50 - 818.60 Zaire ------Others ------ AFRICA 122.30 16.20 664.10 1,383.70 183.30 71.30 - 149.00 - 42.00 2,631.90 Bangladesh - - - 15.10 ------15.10 China 35.40 308.90 2.10 370.00 716.40 India - 384.10 71.30 - - 346.00 153.00 5.00 959.40 Indonesia - - 74.20 - - .20 12.00 2.00 88.40 Israel - - - 196.80 - - 21.00 217.80 Jordan - - 13.00 25.30 - - - 21.00 - - 59.30 Lebanon ------11.00 - - 11.00 North Korea - - 19.10 ° ------19.10 Pakistan ------4.00 20.00 - 24.00 Philippines - - - 13.30 ------13.30 South Korea - - - 190.10 - - 237.00 - - - 427.10 Syria - - - - - 32.50 - - - - 32.5C Taiwan - - - 124.00 - 57.90 - - 30.00 211.90 Thailand - - - 17.00 - - - - 20.00 3.00 40.00 Vietnam - - 3.40 ------3.40 Others ------.60 - 20.00 - 20.60 ASIA - 70.90 1,348.80 71.30 32.50 297.80 382.00 225.00 431.00 2,859.30 SAUDI FRANCE W. GERMANY POLAND CANADA U.S.A. MEXICO JAPAN ARABIA OTHER DOMESTIC TOTAL Australia - - - 425.40 - 20.00 New Caledonia - 445.40 - - - - New Zealand - - - 204.20 - 204.20 OCEANIA - - - 629.60 - - - - - 20.00 649.60 Canada - - - - 7.10 - - - - 767.00 774.10 United States - - - 1,215.00 - 690.00 - - - 6,970.00 8,875.00 NORTH AMERICA - - - 1,215.00 7.10 690.00 - - - 7,737.00 9,649.10 Costa Rica - - Cuba - - - 176.50 - - - El Salvador - - 176.50 - - - Mexico - - - - 50.50 - - - - 869.00 919.50 CENTRAL AMERICA - - - 176.50 50.50 - - - - 869.00 1,096.00 Argentina - - 91.60 7.60 37.70 Brazil - - - - 136.90 - - 242.90 490.50 79.20 2.10 - - 46.00 Chile - 85.00 945.70 u - - 66.60 1.60 - - - 12.00 30.00 Colombia - - 110.20 i ------13.00 20.00 33.00 Peru - - - - 1.20 - - - 2.00 - Uruguay - - 3.20 - 3.20 3.20 - - Venezuela - - - - - 6.40 - - - 90.00 90.00 SOUTH AMERICA - - 242.90 651.90 92.80 39.80 - - 73.00 225.00 1,325.40 UNIDENTIFIED - - 1.60 - 9.50 - - - - - 11.10 STOCKPILES - - - 16.50 5.30 - - - - - 21.80 WORLD 678.00 583.70 3,973.50 6,002.80 960.20 1,039.00 297.80 605.00 320.00 17,302.00 31,762.00 COMM. WORLD - .30 2,007.20 734.10 88.50 51.10 2.10 10.00 - 6,234.00 9,127.30 WEST WORLD 678.00 583.40 1,966.30 5,268.70 871.70 987.90 295.70 595.00 320.00 11,068.00 22,634.70 -157- ANNEX 13 PRODUCTION COSTS FOR FRASCH SULPHURa ESTIMATED FRASCH SULPHUR PRODUCTION & TRANSPORT COSTS-DUVAL: 1980, 1985, & 1990 (In Current Dollars Per Long Ton) -ALL MINES- . Culberson o Phillips Ranch 1980 1985 1990 PRODUCTION COSTS Fuel 16.60 46.80 93.60 Labor & Supervision (Including Benefits, Etc.) 3.80 5.80 8.70 Equipment & Supplies (Well Casing, Chemicals, Etc.) 8.50 12.80 19.20 Depreciation & Amortization 1.50 2.00 2.50 Property Taxes & Insurance 1.50 2.00 2.50 Severance Tax 1.03 1.03 1.03 Selling, General & Administrative 7.00 12.90 19.35 Royalty (@ 10% f.o.b. Mine Price Less Severance Tax) 9.50 19.40 30.40 Sub-Total 49.43 102.73 177.28 Net Profit Payment -Not Applcable- Total Cost f.o.b. Mine (Rounded) 49.00 103.00 177.00 TRANSPORT TO & H1ANDLING AT GALVESTON TERMLNAL 13.00 20.00 30.00 TOTAL COST F.A.S. GALVESTON (Rounded) 62.00' 123.00 207.00 BASIS: Production-I L.T./Year 2.265 (1) 2.30 2.30 Production-,-L.T./Day 6,205 (1) 6,301 63301 Water Rati,o (Gallons/L.T.) 2,400 2,500 2,500 Fuel Ratio (QBTU/L.T.) 6.9 7.2 7.2 Fuel Cost ($/MMBTU)± 2.40 6.50 13.00 Number of Employees (Mine Operations) 350 355 355 Average Salary & Benefits ($/Year)tt 25,000 37,500 56,250 Capital Investment (Million Dollars) (Including Mines, Transport & Terminal Facilities) 170 185 200 S.G.&A. (% of Realized Price) * 6 6 6 Average Realized Price ($/L.T.)- All Sales 116.44 (1) 225.00* 350.00* Average Delivery Cost ($/L.T.) 20.44 30.00 45.00 Average f.o.b. Mine Price ($/L.T.) 96.00 195.00 305.00 'Same as for Texasgulf; fuel cost will be equivalent to about 90% of fuel oil cost in 1985. Assumes deregulation of gas prices by 1985 and that gas costs escalate 15% per year from 1985-1990. ttEscalation of labor & equipment costs @ 8.5%/year. (1) Data reported by comoany. *For calculating Royalty-not a specific price forecast. a Reference 2. -158- -ALL MINES-- * Grand Isle * Garden Island Bay (tu-til 1988 or 1989) - Caillou Island (Until 1988 or 1989) 1980 1985 1990 PRODUCTION COSTS F7uel(see Basis below) 13.50 30.00 Labor & Supervision 97.50 (Including Benefits, Etc.) 7.50 11.15 33,75 Equipment & Supplies (Well Casing, Chemicals, Etc.) 10.50 15.75 Depreciation 23.65 & Amortization 3.20 4.00 Property Taxes 2.00 & insurance 1.60 2.00 Severance Tax 1.00 1.03 1.03 1.03 Selling, General & Administrative 4.10 8.35 12.95 Royalty ($2/T for Grand Isle; 75M/T for the others) 1.40 1.50 Sub-Total 2.00 42.83 73.78 Net P:rofit 173.88 Payment (@ 50%) 31.08 66.61 Total 74.56 Cost f.o.b. Mine (Rounded) 740 140.00 248.00 TRANSPORT TO & ADLING AT PORT SULPHUR TEERMINAL 2.00 3.00 4.50 TOL COST F.A.S. PORT SULPHUR 76.00 143.00 252.00 BASIS: Production-wi L.T./Year 2.27 (1) 2.30 Production-L.T./Day 0.50 6,227 (1) 6,301 1,370 Water Ratio (Gallons/L.T.) 2,000 2,300 3,650 Fuel Ratio (M?BTU/L.T.) 5.2 6 9.5 Fuel Cost ($/MMBTU)t 2.50 5.00 10.00 Number of Employees 570 570 250 Average Salary & Benefits ($/Year)tt - 30,000 45,000 67,000 Capital Investment (Million Dollars) (Including Mines, Transport & Terminal Facilities) 152 (1) 167 40 S.G.&A, (% of Realized Price) 3.7 3.7 3.7 Average Realized Proce ($/L.T.)-e All Sales 116.88 (1) 225.00 Average Delivery 350.00 Cost ($/L.T.) 11.88 18,Q0 27.00 Average f.o.b. Mine Price ($/L.T,) 105.00 207.00 323.00 tFuel cost will be slightly less than Texasgulf's in 1980 substantially and 1985 and less than TG's in 1990 for Grand Isle; average increase of 15%/year for the decade. ttEscalation of labor & equipment costs @ 8.5%/year. (1) Data reported by company. a Reference 2, -159- -ALL MINES- * Newgul f* * Comanche Creek* * Moss, Bluff (1980 only)* 1980 1985 1990 PRODUCTION COSTS Fuel (see Basis, below) 34.60 78.00 158.60 Labor & Supervision (Including Benefits, etc.) 10.80 16.00 24.35 Equipment & Supplies (Well Casing, Chemicals, etc.) 7.20 10.80 16.20 Depreciation & Amortization (Mine Only) 2.00 2.50 3.00 Property Taxes & Insurance 2.30 3.00 4.00 Severance Tax 1.03 1.03 1.03 Selling, General & Administrative 4.50 9.00 14.70 Royaltya 3.30 7.50 16.70 Sub-Total 65.73 127.83 237.88 Net Prof it Paymi-nt 0 0O Total Cost f.o.b. Mine (Rounded) 66.00 128.00 239.00 TRANSPORT TO & HANDLING AT BEAUMONT TERMINAL 4.50 6.95 9.00 TOTAL COST F.A.S. BEAUMONT $70.00 $135.00 $248.00 Royalty Basis: Comanche Creek-16 213% of f.o.b. mine price -Newgulf -- $1.00 per long ton -- Moss Bluff -$2.00 per long ton *Boling Mine willl. continue producing into the 1990s; Comanche Creek will close in late 1990; Moss Bluff will close in 1983 o4 1984. BASIS: Productionl-M L.T./Year 1.43 (1) 1.22 1.20 Production--L.T./Day 3,921 (1) 3,342 3,288 Water Ratio (Gallons/L.T.) 5,100 4,600 4,700 Fuel Ratio (MMBTU/L.T.) 13.3 12 12.2 Fuel Cost ($/MRBTJ)t 2,60 6.50 13.00 Number of Employees (Mining Operations) 700 590 590 Average Salary 6 Benefita ($/Year)tt 22,000 33,000 49,500 Capital Investment (Million Dollars) (Incu'sding 'Mines, Transport & Terminal Facilities) 100 100 110 S.G.&A. (% of Realized PtUce) 4.2 4.2 4.2 Average Realized Prlce ($/L,T.)- All Sales 106.51 (1) 215.00* 350.00* Average. Delivery Cost ($/L.T.) 13.51 20.00 30,00 Average. f.o.b. Mine Price ($/L.T.) 93.00 195.00 320.00 tFuel cost will be equivalent to about 90%. of crude oil price in 1985. Assumes deregulacion of gas prices by 1985 and that ga6 >&St$ escalate 15%/year from 1985-1990. ttEscalation of labor & equiprnent costs l 8.5%:/year. (1) Data reported by company. *For calculating approx. royalty--not a specific price forecast. a Reference 2. -160- ANNEX 14 PRODUCTION COSTS FOR SULPHURIC ht iD Comparative Costs of Sulphuric Acid Manufacture From Various Feedstocks Introduction The investment and production cost data presented compare below have been used to the cost of manufacturing sulphuric acid from phosplogypsum brimstone, pyrites and feedstocks on a developed site. The dollars installed costs in 1983 U.S. include essential offsites for a 1,000 tpd plant single stream sulphuric acid using a double contact, double absorption system. Investment Costs (a) Sulphuric Acid Plant Based on Brimstone Sulphur Cost $ Million Burning Sectiona 5.00 Equipment cost Civil works Erection 1.50 cests 0.75 Sulphuric Acid Sectionb 30.00 Equipment cost Civil 16.5Q works 9.00 Erection costs 4.50 Total Capital Cost 35.00 1 Includes on-site storage and handling of solid brimstone. 2 Includes on-site storage and handling of sulphuric acid. (b) Sulphuric Acid Plant Based on Pyrites Cost Pyrites $ Million Roasting Sectiona 34.0 Equipment cost Civil works Erection 9.0 costs 5.0 Gas Treatment am.ction 7.0 Equipment cost Civil works 2.0 Erection costs 1.0 Sulphuric Acid Sectionb 30.0 Equipment cost -T6. Civil works Erection 9.0 costs 4.5 Total Capital Cost 71.0 a Includes on-site storage and handling of pyrites. b Includes on-site storage and handling of sulphuric acid. /U -161- Comparative Costs of Sulphuric Acid Manufacture From Various Feedstocks (c) Sulphuric Acid Plant Based on Phosphogypsum Cost $ Million Cement Sectiona 85.00 Equipment cost 5.00 Civil works 21.00 Erection costs 13.00 Gas Treatment Section 12.00 Equipment cost 7.5T Civil works 3.00 Erection costs 1.50 Sulphuric Acid Sectionb 30.00 Equipment cost Civil works 9.00 Erection costs 4.50 Total Capital Cost 127.00 a Includes on-site storage and handling of raw materials and cement clinker. b Includes on-site storage and handling of sulphuric acid. Production Costs The production cost calculations below for each of the process routes under consideration are based on a new plant operating in West Europe in 1983. The following basic assumptions were used in the assessment. Capacity - 1,000 tpd sulphuric acid. Production - 330,000 tpd sulphuric acid. Production Labor - $18,000 per manyear. Utilities Costs Steam - $ 16.69 per ton Fuel oil - $200.00 per ton Electricity - $ 0.06 per KWh Cooling water - $ 0.05 per M3 Boiler feed water - $ 1.00 per M3 -162- Steam Credits Steam generated as by-product was credited at a price equivalent to the cost of production from fuel oil at the prevailing market price of $200 per ton. Labor and Overheads The cost of labor overhead was assumed to be equivalent to the cost of production labor, i.e., the annual cost of operating and maintenance personnel. Investment Related Charges The cost of maintenance materials, insurance and taxes was taken to be equivalent to 3% of the investment cost per annum in the brimstone based plant and 4%in the other plants because of the high cost of maintaining the kiln and furnace operations. The operating life of the plant has been taken as 12 years (8-1/3% depreciation rate) and annual insurance costs at 2/3% of total plant investment cost. Capital Charge In order to cover such items as interests on loans, return on equity, a capital charge of 15% on total investment has been included. -163- Sulphuric Acid Production Costs From Brimstone Location - Developed Site Capacity 1,000 tpd H2 S04 Cost Basis - 1983 Constant US$ 330,000 tpd H Plant Costs $35 million Working Capital Cost $ 2 million Total Investment Costs $7 milli on Item Unit Consumption Unit Cost $ Cost Per Ton Product $ Raw Material Sulphur 0.33 ton 120.00 39.60 Utilities El ectri ci ty 60 KWh 0.06 3.60 Cooling Water 40 M3 0.05 2.00 Boiler Feed Water 1.40 M3 1.00 1.40 Steam (Credit) (1.15 ton) 16.69 (19.19) Labor and Overheads 32 personnel at $18,000 each per annum 3.50 Overheads 100% of labor costs Capital Related Costs Maintenance Materlals @3% of plant costs per annum 3.18 Insurance @2/3% of total investment cost cost per annum 0.75 Depreciation @8-1/3% of plant costs per annum 8.84 Production Costs 43.68 Capital Charge @ 15% of total investment cost per annum 16.82 Realization Price 60.50 -164- Sulphuric Acid Production Costs From Pyrites Location - Developed Site Capacity 1,000 tpd Cost Basis - 1983 Constant US$ 330,000 tpa Plant Costs $71.0 million Working Capital Cost $ 1.5 million Total Investment Costs $72.5 miToi6n Item Unit Consumption Unit Cost $ Cost Per Ton Product $ Raw Material Pyrites 45%S 0.76 ton 20.00 15.20 Utilities El ectri ci ty 100 KWh 0.06 Cooling Water 3 6.00 80 M 0.05 4.00 Boiler Feed 3 Water 1.5 M 1.00 1.50 Steam (Credit) (1.25 ton) 16.69 (20.86) Labor and Overheads 40 personnel at $18,000 each per annum 4.36 Overheads 100% of labor costs Capital Related Costs Maintenance Materials @ 4% of plant costs per annum 8.61 Insurance @ 2/3% of total investment cost cost per annum 1.47 Depreciation @8-1/3% of plant costs per annum 17.92 Production Costs 38.20 Capital Charge @ 15% of total investment cost per annum 32.95 Realization Price 71.15 i -165- Sulphuric Acid Production Costs From Phosphogypsum Location - Developed Site Capacity 1,000 tpd H2 S04 6st Basis - 1983 Constant US$ 330,000 tpa H2 SO4 Plant Costs $127 million Working Capital Cost $ 1 million Total Investment Costs $128 million Item Unit Consumption Unit Cost $ Cost Per Ton Product $ Raw Material Phosphogypsum (Credit) 1.5 ton (10.00) (15.00) Cement Clinker (Credit) 1.0 ton (35.00) (35.00) Clay 0.07 ton 10.00 0.70 Sand 0.07 ton 10.00 0.70 Petroleum Coke 0.10 ton 60.00 6.00 Utilities Fuel Oil 0.25 ton 200.00 50.00 Steam (Credit) (0.2) ton 16.69 (3.34) Elect,ricity Water 230 KWh 0.06 13e80 Cooling Water 45 M3 0.05 2.25 Boiler Feed Water 0.24 M3 1.00 0.24 Labor and Overheads 48 personnel at $18,000 each per annum 5.24 Overheads 100% of labor costs Capital Related Costs Maintenance Materials @4% of plant costs per annum 15.39 Insurance @2/3% of total investment cost cost per annum 2.59 Depreciation @ 8-1/3% of plant costs per annum 32.07 Production Costs 75.64 Capital Charge @15% of total investment cost per annum 58.18 Realization Price 133.82 -166- ANNEX 15 SULPHU-R PRICES Sulphur Export Prices Current and Constant 1983 US$ U.S. Gulf Port Tampa Vancouver Port Rotterdam Current-Constant Current Constant Current Constant Current Year $ Constant $ $ $ $ $ $ $ 1970 23 69 30 90 15 45 1971 18 50 25 69 17 47 1972 17 43 25 63 15 38 24 60 1973 19 40 28 59 19 40 1974 26 55 36 61 42 71 45 76 38 1975 53 64 79 63 93 60 89 75 111 1976 50 73 65 95 38 55 1977 75 109 44 59 65 87 36 48 75 1978 42 101 48 67 76 35 40 75 101 1979 73 74 79 81 53 54 80 1980b 111 105 82 115 108 88 83 107 101 1980 120 113 N/A N/A 105 99 1981a 133 125 125 124 132 131 110 109 140 139 198 1 b 130 129 145 144 112 111 148 1982a 130 146 131 147 149 110 111 149 151 19 8 2 b 113 114 148 150 110 111 1983a 148 150 109 109 135 135 99 99 137 1983b 88 137 88 122 122 85 85 123 123 a First half of year. b Second half of year. -167- U.S. Bureau of Mines Net Shipment Value Per Metric Ton In Current and Constant 1983 U.S. Dollars Frasch and Recovered Frasch Year Current Constant $ Current $ Constant$ 1960 23 79 23 79 1961 23 79 23 79 1962 21 73 21 73 1963 20 68 20 68 1964 20 74 20 74 1965 22 74 22 74 1966 25 79 25 79 1967 32 100 32 100 1968 40 133 40 133 1969 27 76 26 76 1970 23 69 23 69 1971 17 47 17 47 1972 17 43 18 43 1973 18 38 30 63 1974 28 47 30 50 1975 45 67 49 73 1976 46 67 50 73 1977 43 58 49 57 1978 45 51 49 56 1979 56 57 60 61 1980 89 84 97 92 1981 111 110 121 120 1982 108 109 121 122 -168- ANNEX 16 CLASSIFICATION BY ECONOMIC CLASSES AND REGIONS The Economic Classes and Regions into which the world is divided for the purposes of FAO's analytical studies are given below: Class I : Developed Market Economies Region(a) - Northern America: Canada, U.S.A. Region(b) - Western Europe: Austria, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany Federal Republic, Greece, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, Malta, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, United Kingdom, Channel Islands, Isle of Man, Yugoslavia. Region(c) - Oceania: Australia, New Zealand. Region(d) - Other Developed Market Economies: Israel, Japan, South Africa. Class II : Developing Market Economies Region(a) - Africa: Algeria, Angola, Be;in, Botswana, Burundi, Cameroon, Cape Verde, Central African Republic, Chad, Congo, Equatorial Guinea, Ethiopia, -Gabon, Madagascar, Malawi, Mali, Mauritania, Mauritius, Morocco, Mozambique, Niger, Nigeria, Reunion, Rwanda, Senegal, Seychelles, Sierra Leone, Somalia, Spanish Sahara, Swaziland, Tanzania, Togo, Tunisia, Uganda, Upper Volta, Zaire, Zambia, Zimbabwe. Region(b) - Latin America: Argentina, Barbados, Bolivia, Brazil, Belize, Chile, Colom ia, Costa Rica, Cuba, Dominican Republic, Ecuador, El Salvador, Grenada, Guadeloupe, Guatemala, Guyana, Haiti, Honduras, Jamaica, Martinique, Mexico, St. Lucia, St. Vincent, Surinam, Trinidad and Tobago, Uruguay, Venezuela, Virgin Islands(U.S)j. Region(c) - Near East: Afghanistan, Bahrain, Cyprus, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libyan Arab Republic, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Sudan, Syrian Arab Republic, Turkey, United Arab Emirates, Yemen Arab Republic, Yemern Deinocratic Republic. Region(d) - Far East: Bangladesh, Bhutan, Burma, Cambodia, Hong Kong, India, Indonesia, Korea Republic of, Lao People's Democratic Republic, Malaysia (Sabah, Sarawak, West Malaysia), Nepal, Pakistan, Philippines, Singapore, Sri Lanka, Thailand, Republic of South Viet N1am. Region(e) - Other Developing Market Economies: Christmas Islands(Aust.), Fiji, French Polynesia, Gilbert Islands, Nauru, Papua New Guinea. Class III : Centrally Planned Economies Region(a) - Asia: China, Democratic People's Republic of Korea, Mongolia, Democratic Republic of Viet Nam. Region(b) - Europe and USSR: Albania, Bulgaria, Czechoslovakia, German Democratic Repu blTic,uiHugary, Poland, Romania, USSR. -169- REFERENCES 1. U.S. Bureau of Mines SULPHUR, A Chapter from Mineral Facts and Problems, 1980 Edition 2. Manderson Associates Inc. Multi-client Study on Sulphur, August 1981 3. C. Anderson The U.S. Frasch Sulphur Situation, Ninth Phosphate-Sulphur Symposium Florida, January 1983 4. P. McCrea Sulphur Production from the Overthrust Belt, Ninth Phosphate-Sulphur Symposium, Florida, January 1983 5 P. A. Fusullo United States Outlook for Sulphur Recovery from Hydrocarbons, IFA Raw Materials Meeting, Vancouver, 1982 6. B. F. Isantier The Present Situation and Outlook for Sulphur Supply from Western Canada, IFA Raw Materials Meeting, Vancouver, 1982 7. C. 0e Paulson The Outlook for Canadian Sulphur, Ninth Phosphate-Sulphur Symposium, Florida, January 1983 8. K. G. Aitken North American Smelter Acid Situation, Sulphur Institute Meeting, September 1982 9. C. Collindu Bocage European Brimstone Situation Sulphur Institute Meeting September 1982 10. MMe Monique Nicolas Elemental Sulphur - The European Situation International Sulphur Conference, Canada, May 1981 11. 0. Kyhle The Outlook for Pyrites and Smelter Acid, Ninth Phosphate Sulphur Symposium, Florida, January 1983 12. G. Moncada Analysis of Spanish Pyritic Mining Industry, Outlook for the Future, IFA Raw Materiais Meeting, Paris, October 1981 13. Bjorkqvist Pyrites frou. Finland IFA Raw Materials Meeting, Paris, October 1981 -170- REFERENCES (Cont.) 14. C. Campassie Pyrites in Italy, IFA Raw and G. Guiliani Materials Meeting, Paris October 1981 15. F.M. Alves da Silva Pyrites Based Industry in Portugal Outline of Current Situation, IFA Raw Materials Meeting, Paris, October 1981 16. B. van den Berkhof Sulphuric Acid as a By-product of the European Non-ferrous Metals Industry, Sulphur No. 146, January 1980 17. B. van den Berkof Sulphuric Acid as a By-product of the European Non-ferrous Materials Industry Present Situation and Outlook, IFA Raw Materials Meeting, Vancouver, September 1982 18. E. Ordiales Sulphur Supply/Demand Situation for Mexico, Sulphur Institute Meeting, September 1982 19. -F. Castillo Creus The Sulphur Situation in Mexico, and E. Ordiales Ninth Phosphate-Sulphur Symposium Florida, January 1983 20. I. Service The Sulphur Situation in the Middle East, Ninth Phosphate-Sulphur Symposium, Florida, January 1983 21. J. Lancaster Sulphur Industries of East Europe Ninth Phosphate-Sulphur Symposium, Florida, January 1983 22. D. E. Morse Changing Patterns in Industrial Demand and J. E. Shelton for Sulphur, International Sulphur Conference, London, November 1982 23. Prepared for U.S. Bureau Sulphur Pollution Control, PB81-222796, of Mines by Arizona University January 1981 24. A. J. Desorcy and A Forecast of Alberta Sulphur H. G. Malladay Production. The 1983 Alberta Sulphur Symposium. Calgary, Alberta, September 1983 W orld 8 The Construction Industry: Employment and Development Issues and Strategies in of Small Enterprises ca Developing Countries David L. Gordon, coordinating of ReEla Ernesto E.Henriod, coordinating author author Examines the potential role of the Interest Presents a profile of the construction World Bank in encouraging developing industry. Points out that construction countries to assist small enterprises work represents 3 to 8 percent of the and suggests that efficient substitution gross domestic product of developing of labor for capital is possible in a countries. Fostering a domestic capa- broad spectrum of small-scale manu- bility in construction, therefore, is in- facturing and other activities that are A Brief Review of the World portant. Discusses problems and con- able to absorb a rapidly growing labor Lube Oils Industry straints of the industry and formulates force. A. Ceyhan, H. Kohli, L. strategies for future actions. Draws Sector Policy Paper. 1978. 93 pages (in- Wijetilleke, and B.R. Choudhury heavily from the experience of the cluding 3 annexes). World Bank in supporting domestic Stock Nos. BK 9060 (English), BK 9061 This report assesses the structure, construction industries over the past (Frnckh), BK 9062 (Spanish). $5. background, and outlook for the world ten years. Useful to contractors, engi- lube oils industry. Presents the histori- neers, and administrators in construc- E cal and projected lube oils demand tion industry. Estiting Total Factor and trends in manufacturing technolo- 1984. 120 pages. Productivity Growth in a gies and production capacity and pro- vides an indicative assessment of the ISBN 0-8213-0268-X. Stock No. BK 0268. Dev elopig C ntry economics of lube oil production with $5. Anne er detailed market and economic data. Tuncer Energy Industries Report Series No. 1 Cost-Benefit Evaluation of Staff Working Paper No. 422. 1980. 64 1982. 48 pages (including 13 annexes, ref- LDC Industrial Sectors Which. pages (including references, appendix). erences). Have Foreign Ownership Stock No. WP 0422. $3. ISBN 0-8213054-7. Stock No. BK 0054 Garry G. Pursell Financing Small-Scale Industry $3. Staff Working Paper No. 465. 1981. 45 and Agriculture in Developing C .tii pnpages. Countries: The Merits and Capialt Utilization m Stock No. WP 0465. $3. Limitations of "Commercial" Manufacturing: Colombia, Israel, Malaysia, and the Development Finance DennisPolicies Anderson and Farida Philippines CoEmpanies Khambata RomeHeen M.Bautsta Eamies he rle f dvelomen ~i Staff Working Paper No. 519. 1982. 41 Hughes, David Lim, David nance companies as major mechanisms pages (including references). Morawetz, and Francisco E. for assisting medium-scale productive ISBN-0-8213-0007-5. Stock No. WP 0519. Thoumi industries, assesses their potential for I3N The authors surveyed 1,200 manufac- aiding small enterprises in meeting so- turing firms in four developing coun- cioeco.omic objectives of developing Fostering the Capital-Goods tries to establish actual levels of capital countries, and discusses the evolution Sector in LDCs: A Survey of utilization. The information collected of World Bank assistance to them. Evidence and Requirements was the first and remains the only Sector Policy Paper. 1976. 68 pages (in- Howard Pack data base available for the study of cluding 7 annexes). Staff Working Paper No. 376. 1980. 64 capital utilization. It was found that Stock Nos. BK 9040 (English), BK 9058 pages (including references). capital utilization is not as low as had (French), BK 9041 (Spanish). $5. Stck NoeWe076s$. been supposed. The study is con- Stock No. WP 0376. $3. cemnei wl-th factors that cause differ- Empirical justification for Incorporating Uncertainty into andende thein policiespolievs ocapightal that might beutiliztion used to LarE.WspaStteisfrDvligInfant Industry Protection Planning of Industrialization increase it. Strategies for Developing Oxford University Press, 1982. 288 pages Staff Working Paper No. 445. 1981. 38 Countries (including bibliography, index). pages (including references). Alexander H. Sarnis and Irma LC 81-9526. ISBN 0-19-520268-6, Stock Stock No. WP 0445. $3. Adelman No. OX 520268. $22 hardcover. Staff Working Paper No. 503. 1982. 58 pages (includirng appendix, references). Stock No. WP-0503. $3. Industrialization and Growth: Macroeconomic Implications of Managing State-Owned The Experience of Large Factor Substitution in Enterprises Countries Industrial Processes Mary M. Shirley Holfis Chenery Howard Pack Discusses efficiency of state-owned en- Staff Working Paper No. 539. 1982. 38 Staff Working Paper No. 377. 1980. 67 terprises. Gives the nature and size of pages. pages (including bibliography). this sector, including industrial and ISBN 0-8213-0097-0. Stock No. WP 0539. Stock No. WP 0377. $3. commercial firns, mines, utilities, $3' transport companies, and financial in- termediaries controlled to some extent Industrial Prospects and --- AN by goverrunent. Tells how to increase Policies in the Developed ____ the sector's efficiency by defining ob- Countries jectives, controling without Cou e . s ence, holding managers accountableinterfer- Bela Balassa - for results, and designing managerial Staff Working Paper No. 453. 1981. 30 o . pages skiJls and incentives. Includes bar (including appendix). .. graphs and charts of infornation for Stock No. WP 04£53. $3. rr*- 24 developing and developed coun- tries. Industrial Strategy for . . Late . Staff Working Paper No. 577. 1983. 116 Starters: The Experience of . pages. Kenya, Tanzania and Zambia ISBN 0-8213-0241-8. Stock No. WP 0577. Ravi Gulhati and Uday Sekhar $5. Staff Working Paper No. 457. 1981. 63 Made in Jamaica: The Manufacture of Heavy pages (including references, annex). Development of the Electrical Equipment in Stock No. WP 0457. $3. Manufacturing Sector Developing Countries Korean Industrial Competence: Mahmood Ali Ayub Ayhan (ilingiroglu Where It Came From This book, the first detailed study of Analyzes growth and competitiveness, Larry E. Westphal, Yung W. Rhee, Jamaica's manufacturing sector, pro- comparing prices and costs with those and Garry G. Pursell vides a comprehensive assessment of ir, the international market. and Garrng Purer the important characteristics of the The Johns Hopkins University Press, 1969. Staff Working Paper No. 469. 1981. 76 sector and of its structure. it relates 23e pohns HopklinsgU nnierstyPess,199 pages (including references). the development of the sector during 235 pages (including 2 annexes3. Stock No. WP 0469. $3. the past two decades, describes the ex- LC 7ac89962. ISB 0-8018-1097-3, $5.50 tent of protection provided to the sec- pperbck. tor in 1978, and examines the pros- Spanish: Fabricaci6nde equipo electrico pe- NEW pects for growth of manufactured sado en los pafses en desarrollo. Editorial exports during the coming years. Pol- Tecnos, 1971, $5.50 paperback. Location Factors in the icy recommendations are made on the Decentralization of Industry: A basis of this analysis. The Mining Industry d e Survey of Metropolitan Sao The Johns Hopkins University Press, 1981. Develeping Countries Paulo, Brazil 144 pages. Rex Bosson and Bension Varon Peter M. Townroe LC 80-27765. ISBN 0-8018-2568-7, Stock An overview of the world's nonfuel No. JH 2568, $6.50 paperback. mining industry, its structure and op- Focuses on decisionmaking procedures eration, and the major factors bearing for industrial companies that are estab- Managerial Structures and on them. fishing new plants or relocating their Practices in Manufacturing Oxford University Press, 1977; 3rd print- plant sites. Some 581 industial com- Enterprises: A Yugoslav Case ing, 1984. 304 pages (including 12 appen- panies in Brazil participated in a 1980 dxs ilorpy ne) survey to determine company motives Study dixes, bibliography, index). for seeking a new site or building. Ap- Martin Schrenk LC 77-2983. ISBN 0-19-920096-3, Stock pendixes include nine detailed tables Staff Working Paper No. 455. 1981. 104 No. OX 920096, $29.50 hardcover; ISBN useful to industrial planners and com- pages (including 4 appendixes). 0-19-920099-8, Stock No. OX 920099, pany plant developers. Stock No. WP 0455 $5 $14.95 paperback. Staff Working Paper No. 517. 1983. 112 S N French: L'industrie miniere dans le tiers pages. monde. Economica, 1978. ISBN 2-7178- ISBN 0-8213-05-9. Stock No. WP 0517. 0030-1, Stock No. IB 0538, $14.95. $5. Spanish: La industria minera y los paises en desarrollo. Editorial Tecnos, 1978. ISBN 84-309-0779-3, Stock No. IB 0521, $14.95. Occupational Structures of Policies for Industrial Progress Oxford University Press, 1980; 2nd print- Industries in Developing Countries ing, 1982. 325 pages (including bibliog- Manuel Zymelman John Cody, Helen Hughes, and raphy, index). Eighty-four tables profile the occupa- David Wall, editors LC 79-24786. ISBN 0-19-520176-0, Stock tional composition of industries in Analysis of the prncipal policy issues No. OX 520176, $24.95 hardcover; ISBN each of twenty-six count.ies. Dara that influence the course and pace of 0-19-520177-9, Stock No. OX 520177, show the structure of employment by industrialization in the developing $9.95 paperback. sectors and industries for each coun- countries. The text, organized along try; crose.classiiy 120 occupations with lines of governmental administrative Pollution Control in Sao Paulo, fifty-eight industries; and provide in- responsibility for various industrial Brazil: Costs, Benefits, and formation about productivity (value policies, includes chapters on trade, fi- Effects on Industrial Location added per person engaged), energy nance, labor-technology relations, tax- Vinod Thomas consumption per person engaged, and ation, licensing and other direct pro- employment. duction controls, public enterprises, Staff Working Paper No. 501. 1981. 127 1980; second printing, 1982. 211 pages. infrastructure and location, industry- pages (including annex, references). ISBN 0-8213-0126-8. Stock No. BK 0126. agriculture linkage, and the interna- Stocl No. WP 0501. $5. $20. tional environment, The Process of Industrial Development and Alternative The Planning of Investment Programs Development Strategies Alexander Meeraus and Ardy J. cesses of relevance to fertilizer produc- Bela Balassa StoutJesdijk, editors tion and a systematic description of Staff Working Paper No. 438. 1980, 42 Series comprising three volumes (to the planning problems that need to be pages (including appendix). date) that describe a systematic ap- addressed during the project identifi- Stock No. WP 0438. $3. proach to investment planning, relying cation phase. primarily on mathematical program- The Johns Hopkins University Press, 1980. Public Subsidies to Industry: ming techniques. Includes both gen- 320 pages. The Case of Sweden and Its eral methodological volumes and stud- LC 78-8436. ISBN 0-8018-2138-X, Stock Shipbuilding Industry ies dealing with specific industrial No. IH 2138, $25 hardcover; ISBN 0- Carl Hamilton subsectors. 8018-2153-3, Stock No. JH 2153, $15 pa- Examines the reasons for the high Volume 1: The Planning of perback. government subsidies given to the Industrial Investment NEW Swedish shipbuilding industry during Programs: A Methodology the recession period of the 1970s. Swe- David A. Kendrick and Ardy J. Volume 3: The Planning of den's approach to the shipbuilding StoutJesdijk Investment Programs in the problem is compared with the adjust- The analytical approach with special Steel Industry ment made btiy JapCaoncludes that a sta- emphasis on the complications arising David A. Kendrick, Alexander bilization policy is important in achiev- from economies of scale; a helpful in- Meeraus, and Jaime Alatorre ing the objective of full employment. troduction to linear and mixed-integer As a supplier of both capital equip- Staff Working Paper No. 566. 1983 52 pingofsubmqung facltatingt understan- ment and materials for further proc- pages. ing of subsequent volumes in the se- essing, the steel industry has a sub- ISBN 0-8213-0196-9.Stock no. WP 0566. ne. tantial effect on the cost structure and 3 The Johns Hopkins University Press, 1979. competitiveness of other economic ac- 144 pages (including index). tivities. Its own cost structure, how- LC 78-8428. ISBN 0-8018-2139-8, Stock ever, depends to a large extent oy the Restructuring of No. JH 2139, $18.50 hardcover; ISBN 0- efficiency of past investments. Manufacturing Industry: The 8018-2152-5, Stock No. JH 2152, $12 pa- Provides an overview of the techno'- Experience of the Textile perback. ogy of steel production, and the prob- Industry in Pakistan, French: La programmation des investisse- lems of investment analysis in this in- Philippines, Portugal, and ments industriels: methode et etude de cas. dustry, and contains an application of Turkey Economica, 1981. (Combi,.es translation of investment analysis to the Mexican Barend A. de Vries and Willem this book with that of the case study of the steel industry. Introduces a new eco- fertilizer industry in Volume 2, below.) nomic modeling language, GAMS, Brakel ISBN 2-7178-0328-9, Stock No. IB 0544, which decreases the time and effort re- Views the restructuring and moderni- $12. quired to construct and use industrial zation of manufacturing fror,m the per- Vou 2 PaVolu e 2 Thofo PlnninTheJohssector models. Hokin Unverity res. 184. thespective textile of industry. World Bank Evaluates assistance the rolesin Investment Programs in the The Johns Hopkins University Press. 1984. of government, the financial system Fertilizer Industry g872. ISBN and the private sector in restructuring. Armeane M. Choksi, Alexander No IH 3197 $30 hardcover8ISBN 0- World Bank Working paper No. 558. Meeraus, and Ardy J. StoutJesdijk 8018-3198-9,No,JR319, Stock309arcovr;ISBs0 No. JH 3198, $15 pa- 1983. 59 pages. Discusses the main products and pro- perback. ISBN 0-8213-0151-9. Stock No. WP 0558. $3. Small Enterprises and NEW Development Policy in the E na - . Philippines: A Case Study Ihtd Technological Change and Dennis Anderson and Farida The Ce Industrial Development: Issues Khambata < -~ i i and Opportunities Staff Working Paper No. 468. 1981. 239 Frederick T. Moore pages (including bibliography, annex)... .. p Identifies principal issues relating tech- Stock No. WP 0468. $10. i nological change to growth in indus- trial development. Draws upon the Small Industry in Developing * t - theoretical and empirical literature for Countries: Some Issues an economic analysis of effective pro- Dennis Anderson " t .j gram designs. Projects underway in Paper No. 518. 1982. 77 the engineering and capital goods in- Saffs Working references).__ dustries suggests methods for revising pages _ ,policies and promoting new technolog- ISBN 0-8213-0006-7. Stock. WP 0518. ical information in industry. $3. State Manufacturing Enterprise Staff Working Paper No. 613. 1983. 96 in a Mixed Economy: The pages. Small-Scale Enterprises in Turkish Case ISBN 0-8213-0257-4. Stock No. WP 0613. Korea and Taiwan Bertil Walstedt $3. Sam P.S. Ho Traces the historic roots of "etatism" Transition toward More Rapid Staff Working Paper No. 384. 1980. 157 and reviews the performance of six pages (including 4 appendixes). major state industries in Turkey. and .Labor-Intensive Industrial Stock No. WP 0384. $5. The Johns Hopkins University Press, 1980. Development: The Case of the 354 pages (inzcluding appendixes, index), Philippines LC 78-21398. ISBN 0-8018-2226-2, Stock Barend A. de Vries NEW No. JH 2226, $30 hardcover; ISBN 0- Staff Working Paper No, 424. 1980. 32 8018-2227-0, Stock No. JH 2227, $13.50 pages (including references, 12 tables). Sources of Industrial Growth paperback. Stock No. WP 0424, $3. and Structural Change: The Case of Turkey Merih Celasun Considers the role of Turkey's public and private sectors in the industrial transition since the 1950s. Compares Turkey's trade prospects in the 1980s with growth in earlier periods of de- velopment as wel as growth in other semi-industrial countries. Staff Working Paper No. 614. 1983. 188 pages. ISBN 0-8213-0283-2. Stock No. WP 0614. Prices subject to change without notice $5. and may vary by country. The World Bank Publications Order Form SEND TO: YOUR LOCAL DISTRIBUTOR OR TO WORLD BANK PUBLICATIONS (S'eethe other side qi thh.1/rm) P.O. 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