Learning from experience Historical case studies and climate change adaptation Anthony S. Kiem, Danielle C. Verdon-Kidd, Sarah L. Boulter and Jean P. Palutikof Published by the National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility 2010 ISBN: 978-1-921609-26-8 NCCARF Publication 24/10 Australian copyright law applies. For permission to reproduce any part of this document, please approach the authors. Please cite this report as: Kiem, AS, Verdon-Kidd, DC, Boulter, SL & Palutikof, JP 2010, Learning from experience: Historical case studies and climate change adaptation, National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility, Gold Coast, 33 pp. Acknowledgement: This work was funded through the National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility, which is an initiative of, and funded by the Australian Government Department of Climate Change and Energy Efficiency, with additional funding from the Queensland Government, Griffith University, Macquarie University, Queensland University of Technology, James Cook University, The University of Newcastle, Murdoch University, University of Southern Queensland and University of the Sunshine Coast. The role of NCCARF is to lead the research community in a national interdisciplinary effort to generate the information needed by decision-makers in government and in vulnerable sectors and communities to manage the risk of climate change impacts. Disclaimer: The views expressed herein are not necessarily the views of the Commonwealth or NCCARF, and neither the Commonwealth nor NCCARF accept responsibility for information or advice contained herein. Cover images: Centre: © NSW State Emergency Service Bottom: (L-R) © Flickrsquared, © National Archives Australia, © Matthew Godfrey. Table of contents Why study past extreme events? 2 List of Figures 1.1 What is the likely value of these studies? 2 Figure 1.1 2 1.2 About this report 3 The locations of the seven historical case studies Tropical cyclones 4 Figure 2.1 4 2.1 Meteorological context 4 Paths of tropical cyclones from 1908 – 2005 2.2 CASE STUDY: Cyclone Tracy 4 Figure 2.2 5 Drought 7 The path of Cyclone Tracy in December 1974 3.1 Meteorological context 7 Figure 3.1 7 3.2 CASE STUDY: Drought impacts and adaptation The extent of historically significant droughts in regional Victoria, Australia 7 in Australia 3.3 CASE STUDY: Drought and water security in two rural mining towns 10 Figure 4.1 13 Mean sea level pressure on 8/9 June 2007 East Coast Lows 13 during the East Coast Low event that resulted 4.1 Meteorological context 13 in the “Pasha Bulker storm” 4.2 CASE STUDY: The Newcastle-Central Coast Figure 4.2 14 Pasha Bulker storm 13 The grounded Pasha Bulker on Nobby’s Queensland floods 15 Beach following the East Coast Low event 5.1 Meteorological context 15 on the 8th June 5.2 CASE STUDY: The 2008 Floods in Queensland – Figure 5.1 16 Charleville and Mackay 15 History of flood events in the Warrego River, Heatwaves 19 Charleville 6.1 Meteorological context 19 Figure 5.2 16 6.2 CASE STUDY: The southern Australian heatwave History of flood events in the Pioneer River, Mackay of 2009 19 Figure 6.1 20 Storm tides 22 Relationship between maximum daily 7.1 Meteorological context 22 temperature and deaths in Victoria in January 7.2 CASE STUDY: Storm tides along east-coast Australia 22 2009 shows a spike in deaths during the period of the heatwave when compared to the Findings from the case studies 25 average number of deaths in the same period 8.1 The event: before, during and after 25 across the previous five years 8.2 Immediate impacts and response 25 Figure 6.2 20 8.3 Key lessons for adaptation 28 Minimum and maximum temperatures for Adelaide Reflections and recommendations 30 and Melbourne during the peak of 2009 heatwave 9.1 Resilience or stoicism? 30 (based on Bureau of Meteorology information) 9.2 Why does nothing happen? Barriers to translating Figure 7.1 22 knowledge into actions 31 Schematic of storm tide generation 9.3 The cost and benefits of adaptation versus the cost of impacts 31 List of Tables 9.4 Who bears the cost? The burden of risk and the role of government 31 Table 8.1 26 9.5 Adaptation in an uncertain climate 32 Summary of the key impact and adaptive 9.6 Disconnect between science, policy makers, response in each of the case studies and end users 32 Table 8.2 27 References 33 Summary of the successes and failures in the management of the events documented NCCARF LEARNING FROM EXPERIENCE 1 1 Why study past extreme events? Although the parallels are not exact, understanding Darwin community, institutional and governance responses to climate events, and their interactions, is informative of the Cyclone Tracy conditions that may determine the success or failure of climate change adaptation strategies. Through 2010, the NCCARF consortium developed a suite of historical case studies to Mackay examine impacts and management of climate Queensland Floods variability and the lessons that can be learnt Charleville Storm Tides for adaptation to future climate. Heatwave Southern Australia These seven case studies examine the following historical extreme events or conditions Kalgoorlie Broken Hill (see Figure 1.1): Resilience & Water Security Newcastle Adelaide Mildura » Cyclone Tracy, which struck Darwin on East Coast Lows Drought & Small Towns Christmas Day 1974. Donald » Drought in rural communities, looking at: Melbourne » Agricultural communities: Donald, a dryland agricultural Figure 1.1: The locations of the seven community in north-west Victoria, and Mildura, an historical case studies agricultural community also in north-west Victoria but dependent on irrigation water from the Murray; and » Mining communities: Broken Hill, a mining town in western New South Wales with limited water 1.1 What is the likely value of these studies? availability and Kalgoorlie, a mining community in Climate change may mean more frequent extreme events, Western Australia that pipes water in to the town. or more severe extreme events, in the future. Adaptation » Heatwaves, taking the case of the late January to early planning for these events will strongly rely on lessons learnt February 2009 heatwave in Melbourne and Adelaide. in past events. » Queensland floods in 2008, looking at Charleville in Changes of policy, actions and/or infrastructure commonly southern central Queensland, which was flooded occur following extreme events. These actions are targeted from Bradley’s Gully in January, and Mackay, which at reducing the impact of any future, similar extreme event. experienced a flash flood in February. Thus, there are parallels between adaptations around past » Storm tides, looking at the period from the 1950s to the historical events and adaptation to future climate extremes. mid 1970s when there was a series of severe storm tides The principal difference is that in the future, what is now along the coast of southern Queensland and northern considered an extreme may become closer to the norm, New South Wales. leading to a change in adaptation policy and action – a good » An East Coast Low: the Pasha Bulker storm that struck example is planning around heatwaves. Newcastle in June 2007. Decision-makers at all levels, from the community to the The outcome is a set of freestanding case studies that, Australian Government, can relate their experience to when considered together, provide in-depth explorations of historical events, and the successes and failures achieved. our knowledge of present-day adaptation, vulnerabilities and resilience to climate variability and change. 2 1.2 About this report In this, the eighth report in this series, we summarise the seven case studies and, drawing from the evidence contained therein, provide a synthesis of lessons learnt for developing community adaptive capacity, resilience and responses to climate change, and reducing vulnerability. In addition, we include a summary of the meteorological context of each event type. The synthesis considers the following questions: » What are the broad lessons that can be learnt across all the case studies? » Are there successes from these case studies that can be put into practice in the future? » Are there ways in which vulnerability can be decreased? » Why do some events stimulate change and others do not? » What are the barriers to effective action? » Are there any new insights that can be drawn from the case studies that would support policy reform? » What could be done differently to prepare for future events? » What tools do planners and policy makers need? » How can experience from previous events inform the development of adaptive strategies for the future? » What is the capacity of a range of systems (e.g. policy, engineering, building, emergency management, communication, institutional coordination, and workforce) to support future disaster management and, where necessary, reform? » What new problems are created by climate change that have not been previously considered in this planning? » What are some of the approaches government, industry and community can use to apply the conclusions and recommendations arising from these case studies? NCCARF LEARNING FROM EXPERIENCE 3 2 Tropical cyclones 2.1 Meteorological context 2.2 CASE STUDY: Cyclone Tracy A tropical cyclone is an intense low pressure system that 2.2.1 The event forms over tropical or sub-tropical waters. It gains its energy from the warmth of those waters – surface water Cyclone Tracy was a Category 4 cyclone that laid waste to temperatures greater than 26.5 °C are required for a tropical the city of Darwin in the Northern Territory early on Christmas cyclone to form. Once the system passes over the land, morning 1974 (Figure 2.2). Cyclone Tracy demonstrated it is removed from its energy source and generally decays just how devastating the impact of a cyclone could be, and rapidly. In the Australian region tropical cyclones: awoke the local and international engineering community to the true risk of cyclonic wind storms.