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Target: € 16.8(Prev. 16.0) | Risk: High AVIO | Company Update

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Target: € 16.8(Prev. 16.0) | Risk: High AVIO | Company Update AVIO | Company update BUY (unchanged) Analyst: Martino De Ambroggi | [email protected]| +39 02 6204 239 Target: € 16.8 (prev. 16.0) | Risk: High EQUITY RESEARCH ALL PROGRAMMES ARE PROGRESSING AS EXPECTED Italy | Space The strong demand of new satellites to be placed in orbit assures excellent long-term visibility. The growing number of launches (from 9 to be gradually increased to 16 in 2023) guarantees top-line growth. The ramp-up STOCK DATA of the new engines production (P120 for the new Vega C and Ariane 6 from Price € 13.04 2020 and M10 upper stage for the new Vega E from 2024) allows operating Bloomberg Code AVIO IM margin expansion. We raise our long-term estimates. Market Cap. (€ mn) 344 Free Float 71% The launchers business is in a long-term growth path Shares Out. (mn) 26.4 The management estimates that the mass of satellites to be launched in the 52-week range 10.34 - 15.78 decade 2018-27 will grow by 3% CAGR with a stronger 9% CAGR in the LEO Daily Volumes (mn) 0.07 sub-segment which is the reference market for Vega (responsible for 53% of Avio’s revenues). We see Vega extremely well-positioned to benefit from this PERFORMANCE 1M 3M 12M trend since it is the youngest and most reliable among the few available alternatives in the LEO arena (i.e. the Indian PSLV and the US Minotaur). Absolute 0% 10% -15% Rel. to FTSE all shares 8% 14% -6% The Space sector is attracting huge financial resources Over the last 10 years the space sector attracted more than $ 18 bn equity 2018 2019E 2020E MAIN METRICS investments, of which almost 50% destined to the launchers business. In Net revenues 388.7 398.5 406.0 FY18 investments reached $ 3 bn and in the 1Q19 already exceeded $ 1.7 Adjusted EBITDA 47.3 46.5 49.4 bn, driven by the largest fundraising round to date finalized by OneWeb ($ Adj. net income 26.9 27.4 28.4 1.25bn - aiming to build a constellation of 650+ satellites to provide full global Adj. EPS - € cents 102.1 104.1 107.7 internet commercial coverage by 2021). This is a clear demonstration that Adj. EPS FD - € cents 99.1 101.0 104.5 the demand is strong and accelerating, improving the visibility for the DPS ord - € cents 44.0 44.0 44.0 growing number of Vega and Ariane families launches. MULTIPLES 2018 2019E 2020E We confirm FY19 estimates while moving up the following years P/E adj 10.7 x 12.5 x 12.1 x We basically confirm our FY19 estimates, in line with the guidance: P/E adj FD 11.1 x 12.9 x 12.5 x net revenues -2/+4% YoY to € 380-405mn (with 9 launches, +1 vs 2018) EV/Adj. EBITDA 5.1 x 6.5 x 6.3 x EBITDA -1/+3% YoY to € 42-44mn (with R&D incentives flat at € ~7mn) net income before minorities -3/+5% YoY to € 25-28mn order backlog at € 750-800mn, covering ~2x the sales. REMUNERATION 2018 2019E 2020E For the 4-year period 2020-23 we revise upwards on avg. sales by 3%, EBIT by Div. Yield ord 4.0% 3.4% 3.4% 4% and net profit by 5%, factoring in the benefit from economies of scale and the FCF yield 6.0% 1.9% 1.2% contribution of the new engines to margins expansion. INDEBTEDNESS 2018 2019E 2020E We reiterate our Buy recommendation because of the … Net fin. position FD 59.5 50.8 43.5 key role in the European launchers business (being the only provider of Debt/Adj. EBITDA FD n.m. n.m. n.m. all boosters for both Ariane and Vega current and future versions) Interests cov 64.2 x 87.0 x 117.2 x best-in-class worldwide reliability of its launchers (intended as failures on number of flights) growing reference market driven by several end-market applications PRICE ORD LAST 365 DAYS (navigation, meteorology, earth observation, …) and replacement demand (satellites avg. useful life is 2/7 or 10/15 years depending on the orbit) visible growth due to higher number of launches (from 9 to 16 in 2023) and new development projects funded by the ESA (2018 backlog € 0.88bn) new P120 engine (in final development phase) for both Ariane 6 and Vega C starting from 2020 (up to 36 units p.a.), exploiting economies of scale new methane oxygen engine M10 (under development), allowing to expand the value added chain (substituting third party’s AVUM stage) net cash position allowing the exploitation of new strategic options. DFCF-based target +5% to € 16.8 PS (or FD FY20E adj. PE ~16x and EV/adj. EBITDA ~8.5x). June 5, 2019 1 IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES APPEAR AT THE BACK OF THIS REPORT #220 AVIO | June 5, 2019 MAIN FIGURES € mn 2016 2017 2018 2019E 2020E 2021E Net revenues 292.0 343.8 388.7 398.5 406.0 419.0 Growth 13% 18% 13% 3% 2% 3% Adjusted EBITDA 36.5 46.5 47.3 46.5 49.4 50.0 Growth 3% 27% 2% -2% 6% 1% Adjusted EBIT 26.9 32.3 33.2 31.0 32.4 32.5 Growth 21% 20% 3% -7% 4% 0% EBIT 13.2 25.0 28.5 28.0 29.9 31.5 Growth 26% 89% 14% -2% 7% 5% Profit before tax 6.3 21.5 27.9 27.5 29.5 31.2 Growth 43% 243% 30% -1% 7% 6% Net income 1.3 18.2 24.3 24.5 26.3 27.8 Growth -71% 1260% 34% 1% 7% 6% Adj. net income 13.4 21.8 26.9 27.4 28.4 28.5 Growth -31% 63% 23% 2% 3% 0% MARGIN 2016 2017 2018 2019E 2020E 2021E Adj. EBITDA margin 12.5% 13.5% 12.2% 11.7% 12.2% 11.9% Adj. EBIT margin 9.2% 9.4% 8.5% 7.8% 8.0% 7.8% EBIT margin 4.5% 7.3% 7.3% 7.0% 7.4% 7.5% Profit before tax margin 2.1% 6.2% 7.2% 6.9% 7.3% 7.4% Net income margin 0.5% 5.3% 6.3% 6.2% 6.5% 6.6% Adj. net income margin 4.6% 6.3% 6.9% 6.9% 7.0% 6.8% SHARE DATA 2016 2017 2018 2019E 2020E 2021E EPS - € cents 5.8 73.5 92.2 93.0 99.6 105.5 Adj. EPS - € cents 57.8 88.1 102.1 104.1 107.7 108.2 Adj. EPS FD - € cents 49.3 80.3 99.1 101.0 104.5 105.0 Growth -31% 63% 23% 2% 3% 0% DPS ord - € cents 0.0 38.0 44.0 44.0 44.0 44.0 VARIOUS - € mn 2016 2017 2018 2019E 2020E 2021E Capital employed 343 296 254 268 291 308 FCF 11 -7 17 6 4 16 Capex 24 29 23 35 33 27 Net working capital -45 -86 -82 -84 -79 -76 INDEBTNESS - €mn 2016 2017 2018 2019E 2020E 2021E Net financial position -19 42 49 40 33 37 D/E 0.06 x n.m. n.m. n.m. n.m. n.m. Debt/EBITDA 0.7 x n.m. n.m. n.m. n.m. n.m. Interests cov 3.9 x 11.0 x 64.2 x 87.0 x 117.2 x 163.4 x Net financial position FD -8 52 60 51 43 47 MARKET RATIOS 2016 2017 2018 2019E 2020E 2021E P/E 182.9 x 18.6 x 11.9 x 14.0 x 13.1 x 12.3 x P/E FD 214.5 x 20.4 x 12.3 x 14.4 x 13.5 x 12.7 x P/E adj 18.2 x 15.5 x 10.7 x 12.5 x 12.1 x 12.0 x P/E adj FD 21.4 x 17.0 x 11.1 x 12.9 x 12.5 x 12.4 x MARKET RATIOS 2016 2017 2018 2019E 2020E 2021E EV/Net revenues 0.90 x 0.92 x 0.62 x 0.76 x 0.76 x 0.73 x EV/Adj. EBITDA 7.2 x 6.8 x 5.1 x 6.5 x 6.3 x 6.1 x EV/Adj. EBIT 9.8 x 9.9 x 7.2 x 9.8 x 9.6 x 9.4 x EV/CE 0.8 x 1.1 x 0.9 x 1.1 x 1.1 x 1.0 x REMUNERATION 2016 2017 2018 2019E 2020E 2021E Div. Yield ord 0.0% 2.8% 4.0% 3.4% 3.4% 3.4% FCF yield 4.3% -2.0% 6.0% 1.9% 1.2% 4.5% ROE 4.4% 7.6% 9.7% 9.4% 9.3% 8.9% Adj. ROCE 6.9% 11.0% 12.3% 11.0% 10.6% 10.0% BACKLOG 2016 2017 2018 2019E 2020E 2021E Order backlog 776 952 877 679 673 654 Order intake 162 521 314 200 400 400 Book to bill 0.6 x 1.5 x 0.8 x 0.5 x 1.0 x 1.0 x Book to revenues 2.7 x 2.8 x 2.3 x 1.7 x 1.7 x 1.6 x Source: Company data and EQUITA SIM estimates 2 IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES APPEAR AT THE BACK OF THIS REPORT AVIO | June 5, 2019 Ariane 5 launcher Vega launcher BUSINESS DESCRIPTION AVIO is a leading international space propulsion system provider (solid, liquid and cryogenic) born in 1912 as explosive maker (a pre-requisite to enter in the space business) and in the past 50 years evolved from supplier of solid rocket motors to system integrator and prime contractor.
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