Streamflow Drought Characteristics in Australia

Total Page:16

File Type:pdf, Size:1020Kb

Streamflow Drought Characteristics in Australia Fakultät für Umwelt und Natürliche Ressourcen Professur für Hydrologie der Albert-Ludwigs-Universität Freiburg i. Br. Christoph Ries Streamflow drought characteristics in Australia Referentin: Prof. Dr. Kerstin Stahl Koreferent: apl. Prof. Dr. Jens Lange Master thesis (MSc Environmental Sciences) Freiburg im Breisgau, Mai 2017 Content List of Figures .......................................................................................................................... III List of Maps ............................................................................................................................ III List of Tables ........................................................................................................................... IV List of Annex ........................................................................................................................... IV Keywords ................................................................................................................................ V Abstract ................................................................................................................................. VII Zusammenfassung ................................................................................................................ VIII 1 Introduction ...................................................................................................................... 1 1.1 A short history of drought in Australia ............................................................................... 2 1.2 Climate drivers related to droughts in Australia ................................................................ 3 1.3 Climate change in Australia and repercussions on the hydrosphere................................. 5 1.3.1 Streamflow trends in Australia ....................................................................................... 5 1.3.2 Effects of temperature and evapotranspiration on streamflows .................................. 6 2 Data and study area .......................................................................................................... 9 2.1 Selection criteria for streamflow data .............................................................................. 10 2.2 Processing of precipitation, evapotranspiration and WB data ........................................ 10 2.3 Climate zones in Australia ................................................................................................ 11 2.4 Southeast Australia (Melbourne region) .......................................................................... 13 2.4.1 Hydroclimate at sample station: Murrindindi River ..................................................... 15 3 Methods ......................................................................................................................... 17 3.1 Part I: Characterizing droughts through indicators .......................................................... 17 3.1.1 Correlating meteorological and hydrological drought indicators ................................ 18 3.1.2 The role of accumulation periods ................................................................................ 19 I 3.2 Part I: Calculating the indicator: SPI, SPEI and SSI ............................................................ 19 3.3 Part I: Correlating meteorological and hydrological signals............................................. 20 3.4 Part II: Low flow model and linear trend analysis ............................................................ 21 4 Results ............................................................................................................................ 25 4.1 Part I: All-year indicator performance .............................................................................. 25 4.2 Part I: Seasonal evolution of SPEI correlation strength and response times ................... 33 4.3 Part II: Low flow model ..................................................................................................... 35 4.3.1 Example: Murrindindi River .......................................................................................... 35 4.3.2 All 76 streamflows stations in the Melbourne region .................................................. 39 5 Discussion ....................................................................................................................... 45 5.1 Part I: Are meteorological drought indicators related to streamflow anomalies in Australia? ..................................................................................................................................... 45 5.2 Part II: Are meteorological drought indicators related to the occurrence of low flow in southeast Australia? .................................................................................................................... 50 5.3 Part II: Are meteorological drought indicators related to the occurrence of low flow at the Murrindindi River? ....................................................................................................................... 53 5.4 Influence of autocorrelation ............................................................................................. 54 6 Conclusions ..................................................................................................................... 57 7 References ...................................................................................................................... 59 8 ANNEX ............................................................................................................................ 67 Abbreviations ........................................................................................................................ 70 Symbols ................................................................................................................................. 71 Ehrenwörtliche Erklärung ....................................................................................................... 72 II List of Figures Figure 1: Main climatic drivers of the Australian continent ......................................................... 3 Figure 2: Working process for part II of the thesis: from low flow model to linear trend analysis. ........................................................................................................................ 22 Figure 3: Boxplots showing the absolute difference between SPImaxcor and SPEImaxcor for the stations in Darwin (northwest), Brisbane (east) and Melbourne (southeast). ............ 27 Figure 4: Boxplots: Differences in annual correlation strength (SPI – SPEI) per accumulation period for the stations in the Melbourne region. ........................................................ 30 Figure 5: Boxplots: Differences in annual correlation strength (SPI~SSI – SPEI~SSI) per accumulation period for the stations in the Melbourne region. ................................. 31 Figure 6: Response times (SPEI n, left) and maximum correlation strength (Spearman’s rho, right) for selected stations of the Melbourne region, by season. ............................... 33 Figure 7: Binary flow model for Murrindindi River (ID 178) in southeast Australia (Melbourne region) .......................................................................................................................... 35 Figure 8: Modelled likelihood of Murrindindi River as a function season specific SPEI time series from January 1975 to December 2014. ....................................................................... 37 Figure 9: Goodness of fit (AUC) for all 76 stations in the Melbourne region per season. .......... 39 Figure 10: Boxplots of seasonal AUC values for all 76 stations in the Melbourne region. ........... 40 Figure 11: Summary of the seasonal trend analysis. .................................................................... 42 Figure 12: Annual autocorrelation in SPEI time series at station 178 (Murrindindi River), top: SPEI-1, bottom: SPEI-24................................................................................................ 54 Figure 13: Seasonal autocorrelations (by the example of autumn) in SPEI time series at station 178 (Murrindindi River), top: SPEI-1, bottom: SPEI-24. ............................................... 55 List of Maps Map 1: Spatial distribution of the 222 hydrologic reference stations. ...................................... 9 Map 2: Distribution of the streamflow stations (black dots) over the Koeppen-Geiger climate zones (Peel et al., 2007). .............................................................................................. 11 Map 3: Location of the 76 streamflow stations of the Melbourne region. ............................. 13 III Map 4: Location of the Murrindindi River and its reference station (white circle, zoomed map on right) in southeast Australia. ................................................................................... 15 Map 5: Indicator with the highest maximum correlation with SSI (all-year). .......................... 25 Map 6: Performance differences between SPI (blue) and SPEI (red). ...................................... 26 Map 7: Maximum all-year correlation strength of SPI/SPEI vs SSI. .......................................... 28 Map 8: Accumulation period with highest SPImaxcor/SPEImaxcor (response times). .................... 29 Map 9: Spatial distribution of the flow10 likelihood trends, for stations of the
Recommended publications
  • The Case for Social Enterprise
    Chapter 1: The Case for Social Enterprise Social Business: Enterprising at the Bottom of the Top of the Pyramid Martin Brueckner, Sally Paulin, Jenna Burleson-Davis, and Samir Chatterjee Abstract: The bottom of the pyramid (BoP) approach popularised Prahalad (2004) as well as other writers such as Hart (2005) and London (2007), calls for the engagement of business with the bottom segment of the global income pyramid, and has attracted considerable attention and debate. The BoP lens is applied chiefly to communities experiencing ‘extreme poverty’ in low income countries with little reference to the growing number of people living in ‘relative poverty’ in high income countries. For the purpose of stimulating academic debate this paper seeks to explore the role of the so-called fourth sector, a domain for hybrid business ventures of social (and, in the case of this paper, Indigenous) entrepreneurs, at what we refer to as ‘the bottom at the top of the income pyramid’ in Australia. Using examples of Indigenous and social entrepreneurship within disadvantaged communities, we seek to highlight the scope for fourth sector enterprises at the lower end of the income spectrum within developed countries. It is suggested that the business models found within the fourth sector offer promising, alternative approaches for addressing the economic as well as social and cultural needs of those living on the fringes of today’s increasingly fragmented high-income societies. Keywords: Social Enterprise, Indigenous Enterprise, Bottom of The Pyramid, Social Sustainability, NGOs, MNCs, For-Profit, Non-Profit 1 2 SOCIAL ENTREPRENEURSHIP AND MICROFINANCE Introduction In this chapter, we will outline our definition of ‘the bottom at the top of the pyramid’ in Australia, and discuss the rise of the so-called fourth sector.
    [Show full text]
  • Mortality and Physical Damage of Angled-And-Released Dusky
    Vol. 81: 127–134, 2008 DISEASES OF AQUATIC ORGANISMS Published August 27 doi: 10.3354/dao01951 Dis Aquat Org OPENPEN ACCESSCCESS Mortality and physical damage of angled-and- released dusky flathead Platycephalus fuscus Paul A. Butcher1,*, Matt K. Broadhurst1, Stuart C. Cairns2 1New South Wales Department of Primary Industries, Fisheries Conservation Technology Unit, PO Box J321, Coffs Harbour, New South Wales 2450, Australia 2Zoology, School of Environmental and Rural Sciences, University of New England, Armidale, New South Wales 2351, Australia ABSTRACT: We completed 2 experiments to quantify the mortality and physical damage (fin, blood and scale loss) of angled dusky flathead Platycephalus fuscus during a live weigh-in tournament (Expt 1) and after being immediately released by anglers (Expt 2). In each experiment, 84 and 79 angled P. fuscus were placed into up to 6 replicate tanks and, along with appropriate numbers of con- trols, monitored for mortalities over 5 d. Five and 7 of the angled fish died within 12 h, providing mor- talities of 3.6 and 8.9% in Expts 1 and 2, respectively. One control fish died, which was attributed to an incorrectly inserted tag. None of the continuous or categorical variables collected during angling and subsequent release, or the experimental design, could explain the few observed mortalities to treatment fish. However, knotted large-mesh landing nets caused significantly greater fin damage than knotless fine-mesh designs in both experiments (p < 0.05). Furthermore, although water quality had no measured impact on the confined fish, the samples taken from anglers’ live wells (mostly for Expt 1) were significantly poorer than the environment from which the fish were caught (p < 0.05).
    [Show full text]
  • Paid Care in Australia: Politics, Profits, Practices
    Paid Care in Australia: Politics, Profits, Practices Edited by Debra King and Gabrielle Meagher Copyright Published 2009 by SYDNEY UNIVERSITY PRESS www.sup.usyd.edu © Individual authors 2009 © Sydney University Press 2009 Reproduction and Communication for other purposes Except as permitted under the Act, no part of this edition may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or communicated in any form or by any means without prior written permission. All requests for reproduction or communication should be made to Sydney University Press at the address below: Sydney University Press, Fisher Library F03, The University of Sydney, NSW 2006 AUSTRALIA, Email: [email protected] National Library of Australia Cataloguing-in-Publication entry Title: Paid care in Australia : politics, profits, practices / editors, Debra King and Gabrielle Meagher. ISBN: 9781920899295 (pbk.) Notes: Bibliography. Subjects: Older people--Care--Australia. Older people--Care--Australia--Costs. Older people--Services for--Australia. Older people--Care--Economic aspects--Australia. Older people--Care--Government policy--Australia. Public welfare--Australia--Finance. Child care--Australia Child care--Australia--Costs. Child care--Government policy--Australia. Mothers--Employment--Australia. Other Authors/Contributors: King, Debra, 1959- iv Copyright Meagher, Gabrielle Dewey Number: 362.610994 Cover design by Miguel Yamin, the University Publishing Services Printed in Australia at the University Publishing Services, The University of Sydney v Contents Title Page
    [Show full text]
  • Determinants: Keys to Prevention (684KB PDF)
    Determinants: keys to prevention 3.1 What are health determinants? ................................................................. 63 3.2 Environmental factors ........................................................................................ 68 3.3 Socioeconomic characteristics ................................................................... 78 3.4 Knowledge, attitudes and beliefs ............................................................ 80 3.5 Health behaviours .................................................................................................. 84 3.6 Biomedical factors .............................................................................................. 111 References ...................................................................................................125 61 KEY POINTS • Risk factors contribute to over 30% of Australia’s total burden of death, disease and disability. • Tobacco smoking is the single most preventable cause of ill health and death in Australia. • However, Australia’s level of smoking continues to fall and is among the lowest for OECD countries, with a daily smoking rate of about 1 in 6 adults in 2007. • Three in 5 adults (61%) were either overweight or obese in 2007–08. Determinants: prevention to keys • One in 4 children (25%) aged 5–17 years were overweight or obese in 2007–08. 3 • One out of every 20 children aged 14–16 years consumed the recommended intake of vegetables in 2007. • Rates of sexually transmissible infections continue to increase, particularly among young
    [Show full text]
  • The Effects of Settlement Policy on Refugee Political Activism: Sudanese Refugees in Australia and the US
    Syracuse University SURFACE Maxwell School of Citizenship and Public Political Science - Dissertations Affairs 2011 The Effects of Settlement Policy on Refugee Political Activism: Sudanese Refugees in Australia and the US Hannah Allerdice Syracuse University Follow this and additional works at: https://surface.syr.edu/psc_etd Part of the Political Science Commons Recommended Citation Allerdice, Hannah, "The Effects of Settlement Policy on Refugee Political Activism: Sudanese Refugees in Australia and the US" (2011). Political Science - Dissertations. 101. https://surface.syr.edu/psc_etd/101 This Dissertation is brought to you for free and open access by the Maxwell School of Citizenship and Public Affairs at SURFACE. It has been accepted for inclusion in Political Science - Dissertations by an authorized administrator of SURFACE. For more information, please contact [email protected]. Abstract: South Sudanese refugees are strongly motivated to effect change in South Sudan. After resettlement to the US, this motivation has resulted in much transnational political activism on their part. In Australia, Sudanese refugees have concentrated primarily on domestic political and social integration. Why? In this project I examine the possible causes of this difference, including the institutions, the policies, and the agents who implement settlement programs. I argue that refugee settlement policies of host countries directly shape the political activities of their refugees. When a host country provides assistance to integrate refugees, the government's policies and the individuals who implement policy (professional service providers and volunteers) influence what activities refugee leaders are likely to pursue. I find evidence that professional service providers are more likely to channel refugees toward domestic political goals, especially when they are implementing specific refugee capacity building programs.
    [Show full text]
  • Drug Policy Modelling Project
    DRUG POLICY MODELLING PROGRAM MONOGRAPH 21 AN ASSESSMENT OF ILLICIT DRUG POLICY IN AUSTRALIA (1985 TO 2010): THEMES AND TRENDS Alison Ritter, Kari Lancaster and Katrina Grech National Drug and Alcohol Research Centre Peter Reuter University of Maryland March 2011 Drug Policy Modelling Program Monograph Series © NDARC 2011. This work is copyright. You may download, display, print and reproduce this material in unaltered form only (retaining this notice) for your personal, non-commercial use or use within your organisation. All other rights are reserved. Requests and enquiries concerning reproduction and rights should be addressed to the Information Manager, National Drug and Alcohol Research Centre, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, 2052, Australia. The Drug Policy Modelling Program Monograph Series is funded by Colonial Foundation Trust. Published by National Drug and Alcohol Research Centre. March 2011 ISBN: 978 0 7334 2991 0 The correct citation for this publication is: Ritter, A., Lancaster, K., Grech, K., & Reuter, P. (2011). Monograph No. 21: An assessment of illicit drug policy in Australia (1985-2010): Themes and trends. DPMP Monograph Series. Sydney: National Drug and Alcohol Research Centre. AN ASSESSMENT OF ILLICIT DRUG POLICY IN AUSTRALIA (1985 TO 2010): THEMES AND TRENDS THE DRUG MODELLING POLICY PROGRAM This monograph forms part of the Drug Policy Modelling Program (DPMP) Monograph Series. Drugs are a major social problem and are inextricably linked to the major socio-economic issues of our time. Our current drug policies are inadequate and governments are not getting the best returns on their investment. There are a number of reasons why: there is a lack of evidence upon which to base policies; the evidence that does exist is not necessarily analysed and used in policy decision-making; we do not have adequate approaches or models to help policy-makers make good decisions about dealing with drug problems; and drug policy is a highly complicated and politicised arena.
    [Show full text]
  • Re-Imagining Science Education Jim Peacock Is Australian Chief Scientist
    Australian Australian Education Review Education Review Number: 51 Series Editor: Suzanne Mellor AER 51 elaborates on issues raised by the ACER Research Conference 2006: Boosting Science Learning – What will it take? It challenges current orthodoxies in science education and proposes a re-imagining that charts new directions for science teaching and learning. Section 1 describes the dimensions of the current crisis in science education, arguing that this has arisen because school science has failed to adequately respond to the changing needs of students, or the changing nature of science and the world it serves. Sections 2, 3 and 4 chart student concerns with classroom science content and pedagogy, and argues that the way forward involves broadening the purposes of school science, and expanding the voices speaking to the curriculum. Section 5 argues for new and broader approaches to teaching and learning. It examines a variety of examples of innovation in school science content, including learning in context, investigative and reasoning approaches, considering contemporary science AER Number: 51 issues, framing content around citizens’ needs, and linking schools with science in the community. In Sections 6 and 7 the review questions what perspectives and knowledge are needed by teachers to support this re-imagining. Models of pre-service science teacher education and school-based professional learning that involve a re-thinking of the science degree are proposed. Finally, a set of strands is developed encapsulating guiding principles for a ‘re-imagined’ science curriculum. Russell Tytler, Professor of Science Education at Deakin University, Victoria, has had a long involvement with significant local and national science curriculum and professional development projects.
    [Show full text]
  • Asthma, Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease and Other Respiratory Diseases in Australia
    Asthma, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and other respiratory diseases in Australia May 2010 Australian Institute of Health and Welfare Canberra Cat. no. ACM 20 The Australian Institute of Health and Welfare is Australia’s national health and welfare statistics and information agency. The Institute’s mission is better information and statistics for better health and wellbeing. © Australian Institute of Health and Welfare 2010 This work is copyright. Apart from any use as permitted under the Copyright Act 1968, no part may be reproduced without prior written permission from the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare. Requests and enquiries concerning reproduction and rights should be directed to the Head, Media and Communications Unit, Australian Institute of Health and Welfare, GPO Box 570, Canberra ACT 2601. A complete list of the Institute’s publications is available from the Institute’s website <www.aihw.gov.au>. ISBN 978-1-74249-028-1 Suggested citation Australian Institute of Health and Welfare 2010. Asthma, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and other respiratory diseases in Australia. Cat. no. ACM 20. Canberra: AIHW. Australian Institute of Health and Welfare Board Chair Hon. Peter Collins, AM, QC Director Penny Allbon Any enquiries about or comments on this publication should be directed to: Adrian Webster Australian Institute of Health and Welfare GPO Box 570 Canberra ACT 2601 Phone: (02) 6244 1144 Email: [email protected] Published by the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare Printed by Bluestar Print Group Please note that there is the potential for minor revisions of data in this report. 2 Please check the online version at <www.aihw.gov.au> for any amendments.
    [Show full text]
  • Loneliness in Australia 2008
    2008 Loneliness in Australia Paper No. 13 Housing and Community Research Unit Housing and Community Research Unit School of Sociology and Social Work Adrian Franklin, University of Tasmania School of Sociology and Social Work, Private Bag 17, Hobart, University of Tasmania Tas 7001, Australia T: 00 61 3 6226 7604 Bruce Tranter, F: 00 61 3 6226 2279 School of Sociology and Social Work, W: http://www.utas.edu.au/sociology/HACRU/ University of Tasmania Loneliness in Australia Paper No. 13 – 2008 Abstract Further to previous theoretical work on loneliness and Do our data suggest that loneliness is worsening in the condition of contemporary social bonds in ‘liquid Australia? Yes they do. Flood’s earlier (2006) study was modernity’, this paper reports on a new nationally based on the HILDA (Household, Income and Labour representative survey, carried out in 2007, which examined Dynamics in Australia) Survey from 2001. He found that 16 loneliness in contemporary Australia. The paper identifies per cent of both men and women aged 25 to 44 agreed with loneliness to be a potentially very serious and widespread the statement ‘I often feel lonely’. The nearest measure on problem with profound implications but it also highlights our survey relates to those who agree with the statement the most ‘at risk’ groups and the pattern of loneliness ‘How often do you personally experience loneliness in your across the life course. It strongly suggests that loneliness life’. In 2007, 23 per cent of women and 21 per cent of men has reached unprecedented levels and that it may have as aged 25 to 44 claimed to be lonely once a week or more much to do with reduced social connectivity and networks often.
    [Show full text]
  • Exploring Scientific Literacy: How Australia Measures Up. the PISA 2006 Survey of Students' Scientific, Reading and Mathemat
    Executive Summary The Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA) is an initiative of the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) in Paris. PISA is part of an ongoing OECD program of reporting on indicators in education, which first appeared in the annual OECD publication Education at a Glance more than a decade ago. Over this period, the OECD has successfully developed indicators of human and monetary resources invested in education and how education systems operate. PISA arose because there was a need for regular and reliable information on educational outcomes across countries, particularly a measure of students´ skills. Because it is part of an ongoing program of reporting, an aim of PISA is to monitor trends in performance over time. What does PISA assess? The primary focus of PISA is on public policy issues related to education provision, with the aim of helping the governments of OECD member countries (and others) to have the best possible education systems. Questions guiding the development of PISA are the following: ◗ How well are young adults prepared to meet the challenges of the future? What skills do they possess that will facilitate their capacity to adapt to rapid societal change? ◗ Are some ways of organising schools and school learning more effective than others? ◗ What influence does the quality of school resources have on student outcomes? ◗ What educational structures and practices maximise the opportunities of students from disadvantaged backgrounds? How equitable is education provision for students from all backgrounds? Who is assessed? The student population chosen for PISA is students aged 15 years, who are thus assessed as they approach the end of their secondary schooling.
    [Show full text]
  • Key Issues for Raising Labour Market Participation in Australia This Work Is Published Under the Responsibility of the Secretary-General of the OECD
    Connecting People with Jobs: Key Issues for Raising Labour Market Participation in Australia This work is published under the responsibility of the Secretary-General of the OECD. The opinions expressed and arguments employed herein do not necessarily reflect the official views of OECD member countries. This document and any map included herein are without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory, to the delimitation of international frontiers and boundaries and to the name of any territory, city or area. Please cite this publication as: OECD (2017), Connecting People with Jobs: Key Issues for Raising Labour Market Participation in Australia, OECD Publishing, Paris. http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/9789264269637-en ISBN 978-92-64-26962-0 (print) ISBN 978-92-64-26963-7 (PDF) The statistical data for Israel are supplied by and under the responsibility of the relevant Israeli authorities. The use of such data by the OECD is without prejudice to the status of the Golan Heights, East Jerusalem and Israeli settlements in the West Bank under the terms of international law. Photo credits: Cover © Sergio77/Shutterstock.com Corrigenda to OECD publications may be found on line at: www.oecd.org/about/publishing/corrigenda.htm. © OECD 2017 You can copy, download or print OECD content for your own use, and you can include excerpts from OECD publications, databases and multimedia products in your own documents, presentations, blogs, websites and teaching materials, provided that suitable acknowledgement of OECD as source and copyright owner is given. All requests for public or commercial use and translation rights should be submitted to [email protected].
    [Show full text]
  • Feral Pig Management in Australia: Current Trends and Future Directions
    Feral Pig Management in Australia: Current Trends and Future Directions Andrew J. Bengsen Department of Primary Industries, Orange, New South Wales, Australia Matthew N. Gentle Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry, Toowoomba, Queensland, Australia James L. Mitchell FeralFix, Charters Towers, Queensland, Australia Hayley E. Pearson University of Sydney, Faculty of Veterinary Science, Sydney, South Wales, Australia Glen R. Saunders Department of Primary Industries, Orange, New South Wales, Australia ABSTRACT: Feral or free-ranging pigs have been a problem in Australia since the first years of European settlement, and they now occur in a wide range of habitat types throughout much of the continent. Feral pigs impact environmental, agricultural, and cultural resources, but they can also have commercial value from harvesting and recreational or subsistence hunting. It has been difficult to quantify many of the adverse impacts of feral pigs. Consequently, most management programs aim to mitigate actual, potential, or perceived impacts that have been inferred from observational studies and anecdotes, untested retroductive hypotheses, or observations generated from outside of Australia. Lethal control to reduce population density is the most common form of management, and it is often applied as a form of insurance, rather than to mitigate specific, measurable impacts. We suggest that future management programs should aim to quantify the effects of management actions on pig populations and the vulnerable resources that are the basis of real management objectives. There are important ethical and practical reasons for this approach, which should in turn enhance the efficiency and efficacy of management programs and help to ensure continued public and government support for ongoing mitigation of the feral pig problem.
    [Show full text]