Sinotrans Shipping (00368

Se Source

52 Weeks high/low ( high/low 52 Weeks vol. average 3 month ( cap. Market Share 201 2 20 20 20 3 年结 Mar       e

阿里巴巴集团公司报告： Company Report: /31 01

th 16 15 14 FY15 FY15 FCF FY15 RMB48.1bn, 8 7

End e : F F F A A the Company, las in issue (m) issue in

valuation. think Alibaba think 达到预期低于市场预期达到 40% GAAP net profit profit net GAAP yoy. 49.1% up RMB48,121mn, consensus. Maintain Maintain Health. Alibaba and Pictures Alibaba Aliyun, business support credit more and reduction tax announced qoq. 1.1ppt up 62.2%, up RMB219bn, reached GMV points Key 等业，和阿里健康等。要点阿里巴巴渐进入估值维持 net net 48.4% down RMB2,893mn, revenue revenue Group Alibaba 33. 净利润预测是上升 respectively expectation RMB17,425mn, up 44.8% yoy, 3. reached GMV. Revenue total of yoy, 50.6% 158% up RMB304bn,

, t 9

page 利好淘宝电商。，其中移动目标：倍的 15.6 1.1ppt RMB RMB52.47 profit US ，“买入” 亿，巨大隐藏价值 481 自由现金流RMB 1 ）

公布了 $ 价 % ( fo Non GAAP FY1 GAAP Non 174.25 Turnover RMB 天猫增速高于预期

m) es 196,381 196,381 152,109 106,909 Guotai Junan International Guotai Junan reached

。。FY15 。 T r USD1 76,204 76,204 52,504 总股数

reached RMB reached arget arget FCF FCF US disclaimer 公司自由现金流 2 .

: 10%

RMB419

. 3 ） favor 市值收入 Our

FY15 Free Cash Flow reached an amazing level of of level amazing an reached Flow Cash Free FY15 grew fast. grew GMV re GMV 1) 1) ’ $) 52 $) 个月平均成交股数亿，同比增长 GMV m) 4QFY15 s new business new s 国务院出台小微电商鼓励政策亿，同比增长 1 。

might 0 Robust Robust 年自由现金流达到 3 estimate TP TP (m)

(

P announced Non GAAP Non .

able ）公司新业务增长非常快。 US 0 周高 rice

达到 0 RMB5 亿， (

, USD1 Net Profit Net

BABA US $ ( ached RMB600bn, up 40% yoy, with mobile GMV of of GMV yoy, mobile 40% up with RMB600bn, ached 股东净利 RMB Page Page 投资评级

7 财年业绩，略好于预期。 m)

/ 43,055 43,055 36,347 26,413 24, 23,076 exceed RMB1,00bn in in RMB1,00bn exceed 低 policies policies Alibaba Group RMB 市盈率

at 。

RMB

7,741

s 2 Tmall GMV growth GMV Tmall , 149 149

New business New

247mn,up 351.5% 351.5% 天猫 1

m) USD1 年内会超过 44.8% are 0 净利润达到 yoy 3, .00

536 . 040

。

为

)

( mn, up16.0 mn, es GMV , 10% below market expectation. N expectation. market below 10% ,

4QFY15 results, slightly above market market above slightly results, 4QFY15 Earnings / Earnings ‘

000) RMB “

represent for 1 ，超出市场预期亿，和 RMB481.21 。净利润达到

亿，同比增长买入 grew very fast and might come into into come might and fast very grew 每 0 6 .

达到

0 % above above % AD 41.9 small & micro ecommerce micro & small

0 RMB

” RMB 15.726 15.726 13.675 10.235 10.330 10.610 (

S RMB612 RMB with with 。 AD 。 RMB2 净利 es bn 1,000 我们认为公司新业务发展非常快，会逐新业务包括蚂蚁金融，阿里云，阿里影鼓励政策包括减少税收，增加贷款支持 s 77.41 S ,

) , 亿的 GMV 33

% yoy,% 15 mainly mainly

‘ RMB benefiting

RMB2 B , 158 190 1 .

consensus 9x FY 9x uy’ 亿 2 3. 亿。 2

( above expectation above 亿，同比增长惊人水平，同比增长每 0 6 Earnings Earnings BABA US 达到 % 。 yoy years. years. . % 亿，同比增长 00 ADS 53.6 Tremendous Hidden Value Hidden Tremendous 我们，占到总 8 目标价 . rating investment 。其中移动端零售电商收入 . 0 include Ant F Ant include 93 . Net profit reached reached profit Net . 1 17,

RMB6,000 / 213 7 净利变动

2, bn 77.77 FY1 亿，同比下降 .6

Non GAAP GAAP Non 197 4 Our Our ( . Taobao 189.9 189.9 2) / , 52. △ 1 % above market market above %

AD 445 (0.9) (2.6) and and 15.0 15.0 33.6 1 forecast 6

GMV50.6% . %) 0 - 9 0 0 % 16.0 State Council Council State S . 1

FY1 8

0 62. RMB

年亿，同比增长

美元 ) 2

，高出市场 6 Non GAAP GAAP Non 市盈率 on GAAP GAAP on 49.1% %, %, includ . Mobile Mobile . - 3) New FY15 FY16 (%) float Free Major shareholder shareholder Major inancial, inancial, PER PE. 18 18 34.3 34.3 39.5 52.7 52.3 50.9 ，相当于 48.4% bn 61.2

(x) 。收入季环比 Tma

Non Non

- 。 the the We We Net gearing Net 17 ing

，每 ll , PEG PEG

ADS B

FY15 自由流通比率 V/ 96.347 82.955 71.287 67.335 13.985 ( 净资产

RMB AD

FY1

Source 平均 Avg 相对纳指变动 % to Rel. 绝对变动 % Abs. ADR Change in 大股东股价表现 Stock performance - S ADS from Revised 6 评级： Rating: (10) 17 17 ) 65 20 35 50 80

5 - 6 . Oct

18m TP 18m ADR ADR 变动

净负债市盈率相对盈利增长比率 - : 14

Bloomberg, 市净率价：

NASDAQ % 价（美元） price(

ADR P 38.6 38.6 (%)

BR 5.6 5.6 6.5 7.6 8.0 (x) % change change %

Nov 股东资金 %

Price

- 14 目标价

原目标价 $)

Guotai Junan International Junan Guotai index

ADQCM Index CCMP NASDAQ

DP 每股股息

Dec

( ( RMB : 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 /AD % -

14 :

)

1 83.3

2.3 2.9 S 个月

) 1

M ,

Jan

- 15 ‘ B [email protected] Ray Zhao Ray 股息率 +86 755 23976755 3 (1.1) 84.1

Alibaba GroupAlibaba 1.2 Yield uy’ 个月 Feb . 3 M

(%)

0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -

2015 May 11

SoftBank

US 买入 Maintained 净资产收益率

$ US Apr

110.00 $

n n - n 15 .a. .a. $ 87.060 .a N 赵 1 1 Y

110.00 Buy

et cash et 年 (

维持) 149.2 149.2 % 31.9

ROE

23.9 23.9 18.0 15.5 25.7 of of 睿 (%) 17.5 May 2.2

Company Report Alibaba Group 阿里巴巴集团（BABA US） GTJA Research 国泰君安研究

Table Se International. Junan Company, the Guotai Source: Total Others Infrastructure Internet and Computing Cloud Commerce International Commerce China Revenue profit net GAAP Non profit operating GAAP Non Growth% profit net GAAP Non Non GAAP EBITD GAAP Non Assets Intangible of Amortization Expenses Development Product Expenses Administrative and General Expenses Marketing and Sales Ratio Expenses GMV retail of Rate Monetization Revenue Ecommerce Retail GMV Retail China Shareholders Common to Available Income Net Adjustments Stock Preferred Stock onPreferred Dividends (Loss) Income Net Tax) (After Interest Minority Investees Equity of Results of Share Tax Income for Provision Goodwill of Impairment Net Income, Other Net Income/(Loss), andInvestment Interest Expense Interest Profit Operating Assets Intangible of Amortization Am Tipla Yahoo Expenses Development Product Expenses Administrative and General a Sales Gross Revenues of Cost Revenues Statement Income yoy, above market with mobile GMV of RMB304bn, up 158% Group Alibaba

Tmall marketplace Taobao Mobile Desktop e Mobile Monetization Monetization Mobile Desktop on Retail GMV GMV Retail Desktop on Rate Monetization Desktop Mobile Desktop

Profit

nd Marketing Expenses nd Marketing th

10% 10%

Wholesale Retail Wholesale Retail e

las : Alibaba Group

endment Payment endment

t below

A page

, intangible Assets intangible ,

consensus

consensus, announced r

disclaimer

’ s Results Compared to Our Expectations . Mobile revenue reached revenue Mobile .

and non GAAP net

4QFY15 results, slightly above market expectation market above slightly results, 4QFY15

mn RMB mn % % % % % % % % RMB mn RMB mn RMB mn bn RMB bn RMB bn RMB bn RMB bn RMB RMB mn RMB mn RMB mn RMB mn RMB mn RMB mn RMB mn RMB mn RMB mn RMB mn RMB mn RMB mn RMB mn RMB mn RMB mn RMB mn RMB mn RMB mn mn RMB mn RMB mn RMB mn RMB mn RMB mn RMB mn RMB mn RMB mn RMB mn % % RMB mn

yoy, 50.6% of total GMV. Revenue reached RMB17,425mn, up 44.8% yoy, 3. Expectation Our

profit

RMB5247mn, up 351.5%. Net profit reached RMB2,893mn, down 48.4%

reached RMB8,144mn, up (1,594) (1,455) (2,020) (1,652) (1,836) (5,825) 18,359 18,359 14,198 15,029 14,198 12,535 18,359 61.8% 42.8% 11.0% 10.0% 33.0% 1.90% 2.50% 2.23% 4,628 4,628 4,628 1,142 6,473 1,230 1,230 1,211 1,781 7,417 9,835 5,383 8,815 1Q15 (127) (554) 3.0% 9.0% (25) 214 320 570 832 216 420 283 353 636 0 0 0 0

Actual

(1,203) (2,477) (2,531) (3,042) (6,133) 11,292 11,292 17,425 17,425 17,425 13,049 13,895 13,049 53.9% 36.0% 14.2% 14.5% 17.5% 49.9% 1.73% 2.64% 2.17% 2,893 2,893 2,893 1,846 2,599 1,5 1,200 1,637 7,741 8,583 5,247 7,802 1Q15 (394) (475) (643) 3.7% 496 388 437 846 219 381 304 296 600 24 05 0 0 0 0

- 209.0% 761.8% 194.1% ------37.5% 37.5% 24.5% 56.6% 67. 59.8% 16.1% 22.7% 53.2% 65.7% 22.4% 21.4% 23.3% 12.7 11.5% 16.1%

------9.9% 5.3% 5.1% 5.1% 0.9% 1.7% 7.5% 4.4% 2.5% 8.1% 1.4% 9.3% 7.3% 8.1% 8.1% 5.6% 4% %

than lower 10% financial Ant from revenue expected than Less loans SME of sale and the hands at cash from revenue interest More Stock expected than higher to due expectations below Far Stock 3. Explanation expected. than faster grew AutoNavi and UCWeb potential. upside great has Aliyun expected. than faster Much business. export B2C up build to very difficult It's 15 but expectations our below Slightly Stock expected than Higher rate monetization expected than Weaker G Tmall trade counterfeit down by cracking Hurt high record GMV, total of 51% around for accounted GMV Mobile 77.7% yoy, 15.6 6

% higher than than higher % - based expenses reached RMB4. reached expenses based MV growth as above expectations to 62%, flat QoQ flat 62%, to expectations above as growth MV . GMV reached RMB600bn, up 40% yoy,

Bloomberg Bloomberg

consensus - base

consensus % above market consensus. d expenses .6

% higher than than higher %

bn far above expectations above far bn

Bloomberg - based expenses based

Page

consensus

2 of of

6 12 %

Company Report Alibaba Group 阿里巴巴集团（BABA US） 11 May 2015 RM growth might accelerate again, under the stimulus of new policy from the State Council. reached an amazing level of RMB48,121mn, up 49.1% cash flow (FCF). free strong Alibaba Group to givestock more to Group Alibaba start business than wethan qoq.7.3ppt Taobao monthly active buyer reached 289mn, up 77.3% yoy, User the utilization rate of the infrastruc infrastructures has many new business stock RMB In 4QFY15, Alibaba ’ Group sellers announcement that the government will not impose new tax in ecommerce sellers, to encourage more Se ecommerceRetail m S Figure Policy. great benefit platform 子商务加快培育经济新动力的意见 announced The Very with We think Alibaba’ Group transaction commission fees. Furthermore, se fees. commission transaction commi transaction Taobao( Wangpu Tmall has higher monetization rate than Taobao.than higher rate monetization has Tmall the future, we we future, the create create

ource: e

million B30.0bn~RMB40.0bn to acquire new strategic assets. th 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 3%, up 0.7ppt 1.7 of yoy. ratio monetization ecommerce mobile yoy, and flat 2.64%, of ratio monetization ecommerce PC StateCouncil has issued favor 8,583 - strong 0 growth e

n in 4QFY15, up 400.7% yoy. This was a big concern. However, However, concern. a big was yoy. This based 400.7% compensation,up reaching RMB4.6b 4QFY15, n in the Company the , especially the rural ecommerce sellers ecommerce rural the especially ,

las

133 “ 2Q12 1 Hot Product Hot The The :

had .

145 t 3Q12

The China government China The Taobao AnnualBuyers Active mn, mn, up page

160 4Q12

ly a

non GAAP profit indicators and cash 1) High flows. stock and non indicators profit GAAP

One 172 expect 1Q13 slow

see would

Annual Active Users Annual Active the The The policy: new inCross Asia. borderecommerce could stimulatedemand the logisticthe international in trade fo

from the the from 185 2Q13 , Guotai Junan International. Junan Guotai , r

202

disclaimer 3Q13 new new ssion fees. fees. ssion 淘宝旺铺 ed down,ed perhaps due seasonality.to Taobao annual active buyers reached 350mn, up37.3% yoy, down Belt Belt

24.6

231 4Q13 ed ”

255 onetization ratio was still very low. I 1Q14 . However,. 1Q15 as might be the off season during the year, we think it ( . ecommerce

爆款 % yoy. % 279 2Q14 a s overall s new policy. 52.0% a number of number a

es nd One Road

307 3Q14

, such, UCWeb,as AutoNavi, PP Assistant, and Ant Financial. We think was it reasonable for

) has to pay 1.5% transaction commission fees. Other Taobao sellers have to pay very little little very pay to have Taobao sellers Other fees. commission transaction 1.5% pay to has ) 334 ) with large large with ) 4Q14

44.6%

s nons GAAPreached profit RMB

2) Juhuasuan to 2) 350 1Q15E

37.3%

Alibaba Group’ 377 Alibaba’ Group 2Q15E Suggestion to Accelerate China Ecommerce and Cultivate New Economy

monetization tures 》）

409 3Q15E tends to lower the tax and provide -

e new teams engaged teams basedcompensatione new stimulateth to

These individual sellers might be both sellers and buyers at 438 growth yoy of Annual Active Active growthyoy ofUsers Annual 4Q15E cross Promote 2)

driversin monetization ratio:

452 1Q16E able 1) Set up Set 1)

3) Encourage more ecommerce enterprises to go public in China. 480 2Q16E Policy discount

512 Projection 3Q16E

policies policies

540 4Q16E

549 ratio 1Q17E s nons GAAP profit was highermuch than GAAP profit, due to very high s 4QFY15 FCF reached RMB5,665mn, up 142.8% yoy. Total FCF in FY15

llers who participate in Juhuasuan always have much better traffic after after traffic better much have always Juhuasuan in participate who llers contribute more GMV. more contribute

573 2Q17E i s encouraging all the governments around the world to build up more more up build to world the around governments the all encouraging s favori .

601 and hugesales volume.Juhuasuanwill charge 3Q17E The State Administration of Taxation

623 4Q17E for

15.0% Tmall sellers have to pay 5% 5% pay to have sellers Tmall

631 s 1Q18E te policy to to policy te

border still at at still small

0% 40% 10% 20% 30% 50% 60% We expectWe Group’ Alibaba n 4QFY15, o n 4QFY15,

a & microecommerce. ecommerce with

very low level, compared to its peers EBay and Rakuten. Rakuten. and EBay peers its to compared level, low very

7,741

to have to GMV Tmall 1) Figure Figure S encourage yoy ource: ource: million 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 more mn, upmn,

0 , indicating that Alibaba Group could invest Juhuasuan organize verall monetization ratio only reached yoy,2.17%,only flat verall ratio monetization

down 17.6ppt qoq.

the Company the - 2Q12 91 2 based compensation :

136 3Q12 business Taobao’s

163 4Q12 people to to people 16.0

Mobile Monthly Active Users Active Monthly Mobile 188 1Q13 One

s FCFs to exceed RMB100.0bn in 2 years. 217 , G 2Q13 transaction % yoy. Non GAAP EBITDA reached reached EBITDA GAAP yoy. Non % 77.3%

138.5% 265 3Q13 ecommerce micro and small to ns loa

uotai Junan International. International. Junan uotai O

Mobile Buyers Projection Buyers Mobile

Belt Belt

n 5 94.9% 289 4Q13

324 1Q14 start ( higher proportion in 72.2% th s 国税总局 Taobao user growth was slower

356 2Q14 Council State the 2015, May sellers in in sellers Taobao andTmall to nd One Road One nd 64.1%

the

416

’ 3Q14 newin business s commission commission a

might 57.2%

430 possible 4Q14 businessecommerce in same time. time. same 40.9%

48.7%

456 1Q15E around ) also issued a issued also )

36.7%

487 2Q15E

23.3% be only tempora

individual

（ 513 3Q15E

《 21.3%

that Taobaothat user , thus to increase thus ,

521 4Q15E （关 fees

《一带一路》） 19.3%

Alibaba Group growth yoy additional 3% 544 1Q16E Taobao might 于大力发展电 17.3%

es 571 Page

2Q16E total GMV.total 15.3%

while

. rs to to rs selle 592 3Q16E 2) Very2) 15.0%

599 3 4Q16E of of

new new only 100% 120% 140% 160% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 12 ry. In In

Company Report Alibaba Group 阿里巴巴集团（BABA US） 11 May 2015 Se International. Junan Company, the Guotai Source: Assets Intangible of Amortization Expenses Development Product Expenses and Administrative General Expenses Marketing and Sales Ratio Expenses profit net GAAP Non profit operating GAAP Non Growth% profit net GAAP Non Non GAAP EBITDA GAAP Non Total Others Infrastructure Internet and Computing Cloud Inter Commerce China Revenue Monetization Revenue Ecommerce Retail GMV Retail China Shareholders Common to Available Income Net Adjustments Stock Preferred Stock Preferred on Dividends (Loss) Income Net Tax) (After Interest Minority Investees Equity of Results of Share Tax Income for Provision Assets intangible Goodwill, of Impairment Net Income, Other andInvestment Interest Expense Interest Profit Operating Assets Intangible of Amortization Payment Amendment Tipla Yahoo Expenses Development Product Expenses and Administrative General Expenses Marketing and Sales Gross Revenues of Cost Revenues Statement Income Calendar Year Fiscal Table Alibaba Group. createdhas andinvestednew in mobile traffic sub Juhuasuan activities due to more returned customers. 3) More Tmall marketplace Taobao Desktop Mobile e Mobile Monetization on Desktop Retail GMV Retail Desktop on Monetization Mobile GMV Retail Desktop on Rate Monetization Desktop Mobile Desktop national Commerce national

Profit th

Wholesale Retail Wholesale Retail e

Year 2

las

:Results Alibaba 4QFY15 Group

GMV retail of Rate t

page

Net Income/(Loss), fo Alibaba couldAlibabacharge moretraffic transaction feeson more from Taobao engine. search

disclaimer

mn RMB mn RMB mn RMB mn RMB mn RMB mn RMB mn % % % RMB mn RMB mn RMB mn bn RMB bn RMB bn RMB bn RMB bn RMB RMB mn RMB mn RMB mn RMB mn RMB mn RMB mn RMB mn RMB mn RMB mn RMB mn RMB mn RMB mn RMB mn RMB mn RMB mn RMB mn RMB mn RMB mn RMB mn RMB mn % % % % % % % RMB mn RMB mn RMB mn RMB mn RMB mn

- , Youku, and Weibo and could covert more traffic into into traffic more covert could and Weibo and Youku, , UCWeb centers:

4QFY14 (1,227) (1,200) (1,278) (3,470) 12,031 12,031 12,031 12,031 10.0% 10.6% 0.98% 2.63% 2.18% 5,602 5,602 1,251 5,451 8,561 6,671 6,886 1,009 1,294 9,371 9,965 1,162 8,209 9,371 5,543 1Q14 (353) (118) (514) 1.0% 4.3% (52) (59) (29) 568 568 559 559 213 285 594 135 295 118 312 430 (7) 0 0

natural fromtraffic Taobao search engine. Alibaba Group

1QFY15 (1,445 (1,212) (1,952) (4,585) 12,404 12,404 11,186 15,771 15,771 15,771 12,639 13,348 10,185 12,639 12,344 12.4% 53.1% 40.7% 1.49% 3.03% 2.52% 6,828 6,828 6,844 7,317 7,317 8,574 1,111 1,469 2,454 2Q14 (410) (234) (944) 1.5% 7.7% 6.0% (52) (34) (90) 711 711 718 718 236 358 709 159 342 164 337 501 (8) 0 0 )

2QFY15 (1,339) (2,581) (1,960) (1,749) (5,596) 11,233 11,233 16,829 16,829 16,829 12,769 13,559 12,769 15.3% 1 10.4% 15.5% 3 1.87% 2.54% 2.30% 3,028 3,028 4,345 6,808 6,808 8,493 1,368 1,198 1,617 3,719 9,050 3,028 3Q14 (301) (521) (598) 3.6% 1.6% 0.6% 378 378 468 285 285 419 790 176 380 199 357 556 (2) 0 0 0 0

3QFY15 (2,429) (1,344) (3,083) (2,419) (3,021) (7,520) 18,659 18,659 26,179 13,115 13,115 15,103 26,179 21,275 22,135 14,855 21,275 11.8% 11.5% 25.3% 34.3% 1.96% 3.23% 2.70% 5,93 9,522 1,919 1,919 1,209 1,763 6,420 5,936 4Q14 (805) (175) (614) 2.3% 9.2% (47) 901 901 313 362 362 554 860 293 494 327 460 787 0 0 6 0

4QFY15 (1,203) (2,477) (2,53 (3,042) (6,1 11,292 11,292 17,425 17,425 17,425 13,049 13,895 13,049 14.2% 14.5% 17.5% 77.7% 23.0% 1.73% 2.64% 2.17% 8 2,893 2,893 1,846 2,599 7,741 1,505 1,200 1,637 5,247 7,802 2,893 1Q15 (394) (475) (643) 3.7% ,583 496 496 388 388 437 846 219 381 304 296 600 33) 24 1) 0 0 0 0

1258.6% - 140.7% 225.0% 444.9% 106.4% 392.4% 138.0% 169.2% 351.5% 157.6% - - - - 48.4% 60.4% 34.6% 52.3% 31.9% 76.7% 44.8% 16.0 2 44.8% 82.2% 18.9% 53.3% 26.5% 42.4% 39.2% 39.4% 39.2% 62.1% 29.2% 39.5% 47.8% - - - 2.0% 4 5.0% 5.2% YoY 10.3 10.3 . 6 2.7 2.7 4.2 6.8 0.7 0.0 0.0 % % Page

- of of 151.1% 489.8% ------41.0 43. 33.4% 21.6% 21.1% 38.7% 37.2% 18.3% 47.5% 38.7% 25.3% 22.9% 35.7% 23.8% 51.3% 51.3% 51.1% 50.5% 45.0% 64.7% 72.7% 19.7% 39.5% 18.4% 33.4% - - - - 7.2% 0.7% 7.1% 1.6% 7.0% 4.7% 4.6% 0.7% - QoQ 52.4 52.4 11.3 12 - - - 2 0.2 0.2 0.6 0.5 1.3 1.3 2.4 5.3 5.9 % %

Company Report Alibaba Group 阿里巴巴集团（BABA US） 11 May 2015 Ant FinancialAnt has already become an internet giant. Alipay former UCWeb CEO, to lead the new department new the lead to CEO, UCWeb former RMB700bn1Q15,2 in the RMB9.0 trillion in 2014, according Meituan, we think Meituan could be considered considered be could Meituan think we Meituan, think Alibaba Group could not co Health (Alibaba Health) and Hardware (Meizu and YunOS). Business around its Group Alibaba connect to person key a be Yu might Yongfu units. business ecommerce non own its with AutoNavi and UCWeb of M&A has takenhas charge . Yu. YongfuGame has Business Unit. The new Mobile Business Unit mainly includes UCWeb, AutoNavi, PP Assistant, Alibaba Literature, and 9 ( Financial Ant Currently, 2H15. in Bank) Commercial build upbuild a build up Alibaba Group Alibaba Se Source: Established default risk anddefault risk illegal might try to make Figure Figure data acros 花呗 e th ) and) Borrow! ( e Guotai Junan International. International. Junan Company,the Guotai las 3 a : Alibaba Group t

n new Auto Business Unit with some small partners to enter into new car sales and used car trade. Alibaba Alibaba trade. car used and sales car new into enter to partners small some with Unit Business new Auto s all the finance platforms in China. China. in platforms finance the all s Units around Taobao and Tmall ecommerce: Finance (Ant Financial), Cloud Film(Aliyun), (Alibaba Pictures ), external page

offline offline a ’ s media assets, assets, media s Mobile BusinessMobile Unit fo ’ secosystem has r

of driverless disclaimer

verification media assets and its and assets media

借呗 all the outside traffic around Taobao and Tmall. It -

cash been been ). It might take 1~2 years for Ant Financial to build up an up build to Financial Ant for years 1~2 take might It ). ’ s Ecosystem s Ecosystem

advance nd auto research with AutoNavi. AutoNavi. with research auto promoted into the top 8 8 top the into promoted

system largest largest including mpete with Meituan in O2O ecommerce. As Alibaba Group has around 15% interests in in interests 15% around has Group Alibaba As ecommerce. O2O in Meituan with mpete

to iResearch, over 5 times of ofthat PayPal. Yu Ebao AUM has increased to over evolved risk

. fo monetary Alibaba established has a

r used cars used r

has Yu has Yongfu Furthermore, Tmall. and Taobao with centers, traffic internal . Ant Financial has already issued S Weibo, Youku, and Alibaba Pictures. Alibaba Group need Group Alibaba Pictures. Alibaba and Youku, Weibo,

faster than we expected.

as as fund in in fund a very a very , along with Alimama ad exchange ad Alimama with along , . has begun to test its new ecommerce

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Company Report Alibaba Group 阿里巴巴集团（BABA US） 11 May 2015 IP IP with around RMB330 financing amount Entertainmentto inject Bao Ali Group triedAlibaba into market share. film film ticket sales and 40 90% especially Cloud, Render called cloud, a video create to Vision Ray Figure Figure general, AlibabaPictureshave might lots development. 2013. Pictures’ Director) Best C China, in distributor film largest the Media, Enlighten in interests 8.8% has Group Alibaba Xiami Music and Ttpod, which could help Alibaba Pictures to promote its new films before distribution. distribution. Film 6) directors. famous in directors: Alibaba PicturesAlibaba integrate might valuation growUSD7.0bnmight 50% over2015. to in We Aliyun think might Clou Aliyun revenue reach RMB10bn could FY19.in Aliyun has begun to build up lots SaaSof cloud and published the new Render hasAliyun just Se Source: usersAliyun h e almost every almost ina. development th

d, for film post production with Ray Vision. Amazon has published its AWS cloud with revenue production e Guotai Junan International. International. Junan Company,the Guotai Five films of of films Five las 7) Film tickets Film sales.7) 4

: AlibabaPictures shareholder t in 3 y in Stephen Chow page , and Karwei Wang and ,

reached

ears. ears. fo 2 Tmall is the best place for franchised film product sales and 9 Game could help to create online games online create to help could 9 Game and sales product film franchised for place best the is Tmall

entered a into long high growth track. In 4QFY15, Aliyun contribute

link of filmlink production: ) opportunities with online literature r time. Aliyuntime. render cloud might become a key bargaining business for Alibaba Pictures cooperateto with

ts of mobile media: Weibo, Youku Tudou, Tudou, Youku Weibo, media: 5) Marketing before distribution. mobile Alibabaof acquired Grouphas ts lo Playwriting. disclaimer t he he

Vick

five 1.4mn, up over 80% yoy.

.9 (Hong Kong(Hong Film Awards (HKFA) Best Actor and Best Director 2002),in i Zhao,

% of online market shar market online of %

directors have generated have directors

In 2014

Alibaba Groupha

(3 Times HKFA Best Director) HKFA Best Times (3 the Alibaba Group

new HKFA Best Actress, was also a director, with So Young box office of RMB718mn in in RMB718mn of office Young box So with adirector, also was Actress, HKFAnew Best Taobao film ticket sales, along with% Meituan Eye, Cat 18.7 has

1) Signed with famous directors. famous with Signed 1)

and related box office of RMB3.0bn. 4 RMB3.0bn. of office box related and of of media assetsmedia to integrate before it could produce 8~10 high quality f s established Alibaba Literature, an open platform ’ s Although onlyAliyun contributed writers, to create scripts with Alibaba Pictures. 3 create to writers, e media assets. s of China film tickets sales tickets film China of s baba Pictures. Entertainment Bao has financed over 10 films in 2014,

cumulative , and, 1 famous female executive producer: Angie Chai. Alibaba enjoy a for for film post production, which could save 40% cost and Alibaba Pictures have already built up box office

higher valuation and begi Alibaba Group paid has RMB200mn 3 to famous ) Post production.) revenue d , according to to according ,

RMB1. RMB388mn, up 82.2% yoy. expectWe

with 2014box office RMB3.2bn of in of RMB3.2bn in 2013 27bn

Peter Chan Peter Aliyun has cooperated with revenue

of USD4.6bn of 2014 in and under UCWeb, to provide provide to UCWeb, under . Research eGuan n to influence the overall overall the influence n to ) market F inance competitive in FY1 in

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Company Report Alibaba Group 阿里巴巴集团（BABA US） 11 May 2015 Currently, there are 3 layers of the new structure of Multilayer mobile entrances mobile Multilayer of structure new the of 3 layers are there Currently, entrances think Alibaba Group has already set up a new growth C in smartphones 5.0mn sold only it as surprise directorsHongwithKong, top from and mig withcombined content creationin the future. Currently, Alibaba hasGroup already built up 3 large traffic submobile - up new business around Alipay, Juhuasuan might be a key business unit to create hot productsmore and increase Ecommerce and Auto Ecommerce, are still earlyin stage, and might shift into Internet of Things with the help of Aliyun. synergies more create Group to enter smartphones,into mobile operating system, and related phone desktop. Furthermore, Alibaba Group still has to mobile traffic sub Tencent Video. As mobile Se T Source: s China of 4% around Meizu smartphones cooperate with Meizu to to Meizu with cooperate 2014 andbegancooperate towithChina Union publish toRMB299 smartphonesusers. to rural We think Alibaba Group might ’ Group Alibaba monthly sales volume has reached 2.0mn. It Figure Figure o build up multilayer mobilebuild o e th e Guotai Junan International. International. Junan Company,the Guotai las 5 : Alibaba Group t , powerful traffic centers outside Taobao and Tmall, might be the most crucial target, to compete with Tencent. Tencent. with compete to target, crucial most be the might Tmall, Taobao and outside centers traffic powerful , page s fo r investment -

centers might always face direct competition from Tencent from competition direct face always might centers disclaimer martphones sales, ranking 9 sales might reach 20mn in 2015.

across develop ’ s

Evolution in

edia

the 3 key entrances in the futur the in entrances key 3 the

Meizu might increase a lot. Furthermore, YunOS has announced an

more kinds of has less display ad resources than that in PC PC in that than adresources display less has entrances unconteste

Path

ht ht

’ . s very likely that Meizu that likely very s AlibabaPicturesbecome might the top production film companies,cooperating create great traffic in the entertainment news in the future. Meizu was actually a actually was Meizu future. the in news entertainment the in traffic great create d online payment giant in China. We think We thinkbe5 stagesWe there might h ardware h th ina in 2014. However, Meizu if could sell 20mn smartphones 2015, in we

in China, which has exceeded its full year sales in 2014. It announced its its announced It 2014. in sales year full its exceeded has which China, in

, along with along YunOS., It hardware in point , such, as plates. Currently e.’ Group Alibaba , Meizu smartphones sales reached over 4.0mn in 1Q15, 1Q15, in 4.0mn over reached sales smartphones Meizu , ’ s annuals sales in 2015 might reach 20mn. The value of centers: UCWeb, Weibo, Weibo, UCWeb, centers:

’ s media apps, including WeChat, Mobile QQ, and and QQ, Mobile WeChat, including apps, media s s strategies in new ecommerce, such as Health Health as such ecommerce, new in strategies s : Content, Hardware Content, : media, media, monetization evolution the mobile marketing might be deeply deeply be might marketing mobile

medium target medium

of of rate. Antrate. Financial is building ’ s very important for Alibaba Alibaba for important very s to to have over 10mn users in and Alibabaecosystem Group , and Mobile media apps. apps. media Mobile and ,

Youku. However, these these However, Youku. -

Multilayer mobile mobile Multilayer Page 7

of of 12

Company Report Alibaba Group 阿里巴巴集团（BABA US） 11 May 2015 Se International. Junan Company, the Guotai Source: Total Others Infrastructure Internet and Computing Cloud Commerce International Commerce China Growth Total Others Infrastructure Internet and Computing Cloud Commerce International Commerce China Proportion% Total Others Infrastructure Internet and Computing Cloud Commerce International Commerce China Revenue Table International. Junan Company, the Guotai Source: R M Revenue Retail China Table evenue breakdown by type by breakdown evenue onetization rate onetization

m e Commission monetization rate monetization Commission rate monetization Ad others and fees Storefront Commission services marketing Online YoY% growth others and fees Storefront Commission services marketing Online Proportion% others and fees Storefront Commission services marketing Online M revenue PC YoY% growth M revenue PC Proportion% M revenue PC n RMB (FY Mar End)

PC monetization rate monetization PC

Mobile Mobile obile revenue obile revenue obile revenue obile th

Wholesale Retail Wholesale Retail Wholesale Retail Wholesale Retail Wholesale Retail Wholesale Retail e 4 3 las monetization rate monetization : :

Alibaba Group Alibaba Group

page

on total retail GMV retail total on fo

on PC retail ecommerce GMV ecommerce retail PC on r

on mobile retail ecommerce GMV ecommerce retail mobile on disclaimer

on total retail GMV retail on total

’s Revenue Breakdown ’s

Retail Ecommer

400.0% 100.9% 100 34,517 34,517 26,970 29,167 72.4% 26.2% 75.8% 10.5% 86.5% 10.9% 12.1% 78.1% 84.5% - 3,768 3,768 4,160 2,197 FY13 6.4% 0.8% 1.6% 1.9% 1.1% 6.4% .0% 540 540 650 392

ce ce 100.9% 111.4% 26,581 26,581 26,970 19,697 19,697 Revenue Breakdown 0.57% 1.83% 58.2% 22.8% 73.0% 98.6% 6,161 6,161 FY13 1,112 4.1% 0.5% 2.7% 2.5% 1.4% 223.7% 139.3% 100.0% 389 389 52,504 52,504 42,832 45,132 52.1% 18.9% 16.6% 58.8% 54.7% 81.6% 86.0%

1,748 1,748 3,913 4,851 2,300 FY14 3.8% 4.7% 3.3% 1.5% 7.5% 1.8% 9.2% 4.4% 773 773 938

646.8% 12,023 29,729 39,927 42,832 95.1% 50.9% 28.1 69.4% 50.2% 58.8% 93.2% 0.72 1.77% - 1,080 1,080 2,905 FY14 2.5% 0.9% 2.9% 2.6% 6.8% 2.9% 215.2% 100.0% % % FY15E 76,204 76,204 59,732 62,937 45.1% 64.4% 20.6% 88.5% 33.7% 39.3% 39.5% 39.5% 78.4% 82.6% 5,510 5,510 1,271 4,718 1,768 6,486 3,205 7.2% 1.7% 6.2% 2.3% 8.5% 4.2%

514.1% - FY15E 19,281 19,281 39,586 17,840 41,892 59,732 60.4% 33.2% 32.3% 66.3% 39.5% 29.9% 70.1% 0.79% 1.62% 19.9% 1.4% 1.8% 2.9% 2.4% 4.9% 865 865

106,909 106,909

100.0% FY16E 10,667 10,667 81,153 85,640 40.3% 93. 80.0% 20.0% 50.0% 28. 40.0% 35.9% 36.1% 10.0% 75.9% 80.1% 2,288 2,288 5,662 2,652 8,314 4,487 2.1% 5.3% 2.5% 7.8% 4.2%

6% 2%

146.9%

- FY16E 29,931 29,931 50,349 44,0 81,153 37,114 37,114 55.2% 27.2% 36.9% 62.0% 35.9% 54.3% 45.7% 0.90% 1.51% 11.4% 1.1% 2.3% 2.7% 2.4% 1.0%

874 874 39

152,109 152,109 120,152 113,870 113,870 100.0% FY17E 17,067 17,067 10,772 42.3% 60.0% 80.0% 20.0% 50.0% 29.6% 40.0% 40.3% 40.3% 74.9% 79.0% 11.2% 6,794 6,794 3,978 6,282

4,118 2.7% 4.5% 2.6% 7.1% 4.1%

113,870 113,870 FY17E 48,996 48,996 63,992 75,929 37,941

63.7% 27.1% 43.0% 56.2% 72.4% 40.3% 66.7% 33.3% 1.16% 1.51% 0.8% 2.7% 2.7% 2.7% 2.2% 1.0% 882 882

196,381 196,381 138,747 147,542 100.0% FY18E 27,307 27,307 14,120 29.1% 60.0% 80.0% 20.0% 50.0% 31.1% 40.0% 21.8% 22.8% 13.9% 70.7% 75.1% 7,412 7,412 8,153 5,967 8,795 3.8% 4.2% 3.0% 7.2% 4.5% 101,814 101,814 138,747 FY18E 61,773 61,773 76,083 36,934 26.1% 18.9% 44.5% 54.8% 34.1% 21.8% 73.4% 26.6% 1.24% 1.53% - 0.6% 2.8% 2.7% 2.8% 2.7% 1.0%

891 891

Page

149,488 149,488 237,568 237,568 149,488 161,800 of of 115,994 115,994 100.0% FY19E FY19E 69,770 78,818 33,493 43,691 43,691 13,342 18,734 12,312 1.30% 1.47% 12.9% 46.7% 52.7% 13.9% 77.6% 22.4% 21.0% 60.0% 80.0% 20.0% 50.0% 32.7% 40.0% 18.4% 62.9% 68.1% - 9,783 9,783 8,951 1.0% 3.6% 0.6% 2.8% 2.7% 2.8% 9.3% 7.7% 7.7% 9.7% 5.6% 4.1% 3.8% 7.9% 5.2% 12 900 900

Company Report Alibaba Group 阿里巴巴集团（BABA US） 11 May 2015 and and come into might Total revenue Total RMB/USD Rakuten Ichiba Business revenue Business Ichiba Rakuten Net margin Net Alipay Total Payment Value (TPV) might reach RMB9.0 trillion in 2014, over 5 times of that of PayPal. PayPal has contributed contributed has of40% EBay PayPal PayPal. of that of 5 times over 2014, in trillion RMB9.0 reach might (TPV) Value Payment Total Alipay Se Source: JPY/USD margin net GAAP Non Finance Operating margin Finance Operating profit E revenue Business Card Rakuten value transaction card shopping Rakuten Value Transaction Card Credit and Edy Rakuten Finance margin Operating Ecommerce profit Operating Ecommerce GMS Overseas Ichiba Rakuten GMS Ecommerce Total Ecommerce Rakuten Rakuten margin Gross buyers Active property) and vehicles (excluding GMV Marketplace Revenue Ebay Table Maintain Total Paym Total ratio monetization service Marketing ratio monetization Marketplace Rakuten shopping financing balance financing shopping Rakuten GMV of % as balance revolving shopping Rakuten ratio monetization Ecommerce revenue Business Travel Travel Rakuten margin Net (TPV) accounts registered Active HKD221.6bn. We think Ant Financial Operating margin Operating Transaction take rate take Transaction Operating margin Operating margin net GAAP Non HKD660bn. Currently,didnHKD660bn.’ the market haven’ very little profit Alibabato Group. RMB61.2bn Alibabaimportantof parts Group Log members Rakuten - payment and credit card monetization ratio e -

in members members in th

margin Transaction Loss rate Transaction expense rate take Payment

ent Volume (TPV) Volume ent e

5 Guotai Junan International Junan Guotai t proved theirt real market value through stable operation However, yet.

las : Peers’Data Operation as % of GMV of % as

t T

page

arget arget

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Our USD110.00

Bn USD b b bn JPY bn JPY bn JPY bn JPY bn JPY bn JPY bn JPY bn JPY bn JPY bn JPY bn JPY bn JPY bn JPY bn JPY bn JPY bn JPY we assume that PayPal that n 2014. assume we If n USD n USD m m mn mn % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % %

TP TP n n

valuation USD110.00 represents 33.9x FY17 Non GAAP PE Other big Other

10.1% 70.3% 30.5% 63.4% 27.7% 20.4% 18.4% 22.9% 110.3 110.3 1,325 1,325 1,642 2.3% 6.8% 7.1% 8.8% 2.0% 0.3% 1.1% 3.7% 2011 2011 1760 1760 1247 1247 58.1 58.1 60.3 11.7 79.8 79.8 12.0 346 346 100 100 n.a. 120 120 421 119 119 106 106 n.a. 6.3 6.3 32 49 75 92 26 ’

with with

t count t in Ant Financial

valuation. valuation might might valuation

70.0% 11.0% 18.5% 28.8% 65.2% 20.5% 18.8% 22.0% - 123.5 123.5 1,892 1,892 2,093 0.3% 9.4% 2.7% 0.3% 1.1% 3.8% 2.4% 7.9% 7.1% 8.6% 2012 2012 1448 1448 2049 2049 65.8 65.8 67.7 14.1 79.4 79.4 13.3 380 380 114 114 108 108 161 161 493 145 145 123 123 . 6.2 6.2 57 55 82 31 ‘ - FY16 Our B

subsidiaries uy’

68.6% 10.9% 17.8% 63.7% 10.2% 16.0% 21.0% 12.5% 22.2% 105.0 105.0 140.3 140.3 2, 2,846 2.7% 2.9% 9.4% 0.3% 1.0% 3.7% 5.1% 2.3% 8.9% 7.1% 8.6% 2013 2013 1734 1734 2415 2415

25.3 25.3 76.4 16.0 20.3 20.3 70.2 400 400 137 137 108 108 561 561 215 215 573 180 180 143 143 6.2 6.2 investment rating. 35 77 63 90

Its FCF FCF Its

18 Non GAAP net profit profit net GAAP Non 18 68.0% 11.1% 12.7% 19.6% 63.9% 21.9% 15.1% 17.4% 20.8% 120.0 120.0 155.2 155.2 3,538 3,538 3,656 0.3% 0.3% 1.0% 3 2.7% 2.8% 8.3% 2.6% 9.4% 6.5% 8.4% 2014 2014 1996 1996 2894 2894 83.0 17.9 44.2 44.2 47.5 81.7 81.7 .5% 519 519 151 151 260 260 272 272 638 228 228 162 162 6.2 6.2 37 98 70 98 , such, Alibaba Health HK)(241 and Alibaba Pictures (1060 HK), be

might

around 2~3 times of PayPal ’ s va

has 40% EBay of valuation, PayPal valuation might reach

exceed 2 years. RMB1,00bn in luation as Ant Financial didn’ Gross margin Gross America North sales Service sales Product Other merchandise general other and Electronics Revenue Amazon Ebay Group Alibaba profit net GAAP Non Rakuten (Revenue) Amazon Ebay margin profit net GAAP Non Group Alibaba Ratio Monetization Volume Transaction Payment Rakuten Ebay Group Alibaba Volume Transaction Payment Ratio Monetization Ecommerce Rakuten (Revenue) Amazon Ebay Group Alibaba Revenue Total Rakuten Ecommer Comparison margin net GAAP Non margin net margin Operating

Rakuten A Group Alibaba Rakuten Ebay Rakuten E Group Alibaba (Revenue) Amazon Ebay Group Alibaba We think Alibaba mazon (Revenue) mazon bay Fulfillment Net Media International as % of net revenue net of % as

ce GMV ce

shipment

expense ratio expense

cost subsidy subsidy cost

in 2~3 years, 2 the big

s are RMB41.9bn, RMB53.6bn andestimate

’ s news business ,

reach

bn USD bn USD bn USD bn USD bn USD bn USD bn USD bn USD bn USD bn USD bn USD bn USD bn USD bn USD bn U bn USD bn USD bn USD bn USD bn USD bn USD bn bn USD bn USD % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % % USD t monetize monetize t

ing

According to iResearch,

22.9% 40.6% 37.0%

12.6% 87.4% 59.7% 44.5% 55.5% around - - 118.8 118.8 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 9.5% 5.1% 2.0% 3.7% 7.1% 3.3% 2.5% 2.5% subsidiaries 2011 2011 (2.4) 48.1 48.1 48.1 48.1 60.3 94.1 20.6 20.6 80.7 48.1 11.7 22.1 2.7 2.7 4.3 1.2 1.2

10. 22.0% 27.1% 32.6% 22.2% 11.0% 15.3% 84.7% 63.2% 43.0% 57.0% and - 154.1 154.1 144.9 144.9 173.6 173.6 grew very fast 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 4.7% 2.7% 3.8% 7.1% 2.5% 4.1% 1.3% 1.3% 2012 2012 (2.9) 61.1 61.1 61.1 61.1 67.7 26.4 26.4 61.1 14.1 25.8 5% 3.1 3.1 4.8 0.8 0.8 1.1 5.0 HKD4

Page d contribute -

11.5% 22.2% 21.9% 29.2% 10.2% 52.0% 10.9% 18.2% 81.8% 65.5% 40.2% 59.8% - 247.2 247.2 179.7 179.7 560.2 560.2 0.0% 4.8% 2.7% 3.7% 7.1% 2.6% 0.2% 0.0% 5.3% 1.9% 1.9% might be might 2013 2013 (3.5) 74.5 74.5 74.5 74.5 76.4 2 74.5 16.0 23.0 4 3.6 3.6 3.8 4.1 4.1 7.9 0.4 0.4 1.4 7.1 7.1 0bn 9

of of - 1414.7 1414.7 12.1% 20.8% 12.7% 44.9% 11.1% 29.5% 25.3% 21.2% 78.8% 68.4% 37.7% 62.3% - - 227.9 227.9 366.7 366.7 12 0.3% 2.7% 3.5% 6.5% 2.5% 4.7% 0.2% 0.2% 6.3% 1.4% 1.4% 2014 2014 (4.2) 11.4 11.4 89.0 89.0 83.0 89.0 30.5 30.5 89.0 17.9 24.1 to to 3.7 3.7 4.3 5.1 5.1 0.5 0.5 1.3

Company Report Alibaba Group 阿里巴巴集团（BABA US） 11 May 2015 Simple Average Ctrip.Com International Simple Average Microsoft Corp Dangdang Ecommerce Weighted Average Google Inc Rakuten Inc Simple Average Jumei International Apple Inc Global Internet Conglomerate Yahoo Japan Corp Weighted Average Amazon.Com Inc Weighted Average

VipshopHoldings Ltd EBay Inc EBay Simple Average Weighted Average Weighted Average Se Sou Samsung Electronics Co Ltd SoftBank Corp. Inc book Face Simple Average Baidu Inc TencentHoldings Ltd China Internet Conglomerate Jd.Com Inc China Vertical Ecommerce Alibaba Group Holding- Global Large Ecommerce Conglomerate Company Table e rce:

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Stock Code 005930 KS GOOG US AMZN US AMZN CTRP US CTRP MSFT US MSFT EBAY US EBAY BABA US BABA AAPL US AAPL Dang US BIDU US BIDU JMEI US JMEI VIPS US VIPS 4755 JT 4689 JT 9984 JT 700 HK FB US FB JD US JD

Curre Page Page KWR USD USD USD USD USD USD USD USD USD USD USD HKD USD USD JPY JPY JPY

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1336000 538.22 127.62 433.69 193.54 63.79 47.75 24.52 58.82 159.4 33.74 78.51 87.06 2087 7400 price 9.28 27.9 Last 503 , 201 ,

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PE FY16F 114.0 114.0

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FY15F 112.9 112.9 18.8 58.1 30.7 18.1 14.0 10.7 42.8 25.4 46.0 25.2 21.9 23.7 23.4 25.5 27.1 31.3 19.7 19.5 11.0 11.0 11.7 n.a. 7.4 7.4 9.5 9.5 9.8 9.8 9.8 9.8 3.0 3.0 8.2 8.2

EV/EBITDA FY16F 121.3 121.3 15.0 32.2 14.6 13.1 20.8 20.4 10.0 26.2 18.7 17.6 18.2 17.0 83.8 20.6 22.9 13.4 42.0 14.2 9.6 9.6 8.7 8.7 7.0 7.0 8.1 8.1 9.7 9.7 8.1 8.1 9.1 9.1 2.5 2.5 7.4 7.4

FY17F 14.7 12.8 13.5 17.5 14.0 12.3 13.2 12.5 25.2 15.7 31.2 16.3 10.7 16.1 11.4 11.4 11.7 11.7 3.5 3.5 9.3 9.3 7.1 7.1 6.4 6.4 8.9 8.9 7.0 7.0 8.1 8.1 6.9 6.9 8.2 8.2 2.0 2.0 9.4 9.4 6.7 6.7 10

of of GAAP FY15 12 PEG Non 11.5 11.5

0.4 0.4 0.1 0.1 1.3 1.3 1.5 1.5 1.1 1.1 0.5 0.5 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 4.2 1.7 1.7 0.7 0.7 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9 1.7 1.7 3.0 3.0 1.2 1.2 0.9 0.9 0.5 0.5 1.1 1.1 1.3 1.3 0.4 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.2 0.4 0.4 1.8 1.8 1.0 1.0 0.6 - 17 17

Company Report Alibaba Group 阿里巴巴集团（BABA US） 11 May 2015 Se Source: EB BB Cash in Changes Net Flow Cash Effect Rate Exchange Foreign Other Adjustments Cash Flow from Financing Activities Others repurchase or issuance Share Borrowings Secured Net Borrowings Bank Net Financing Activities Activities Investing from Flow Cash Others and assets intangible PPE, of Disposals Investment Expenditure Capital Activities Investing C Liabilities Working Capital Change loss or gains cash non Other Receivable Loan Taxes Income Deferred Payable Tax Income Investees of Equity of Results Share Shar Amortization and Depreciation Income Net Operating Ac mn Year Fiscal End (Mar Statement Flow Cash Diluted of Numbers Basic of Numbers Diluted GAAP Non Diluted Basic EPS income net GAAP Non Net Income Available to Common Shareholders Adjustments Stock Preferred Stock Preferred on Dividends Net income attributable to Alibaba Group Tax) (After Interest Minority Investees of Equity of Results Share Tax Income for Provision Taxes before Earnings Net Income, Other Net Income/(Loss), Investment and Interest Expense Interest Operating Profit Assets intangible Goodwill, of Impairment Assets Intangible of Amortization Expenses Development Product Expenses Administrative and General Expenses Marketing and Sales Profit Gross Revenues of Cost Revenues Statement Income StatementFinancial ash Flow from Operating Activities

Escrow Money Payable Money Escrow Receivables Escrow and Cash Restricted Other and Payable Accounts Expenses, Accrued Assets Other and Receivables Prepayments, Deposits Merchant Advances Customer and Revenue Deferred e e -

Expense Compensation based EPS th

the Company the

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Shares (Mar End Fiscal Year mn Year Fiscal End (Mar

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Page Page (13,369) (32,997) (27,692) (3,4 (4,776 (1,329) (3,567) (9,175) (3,196) (2,195) (5,093) (4,218) (4,545) FY1 FY1 39,135 39,135 52,504 26,379 26,379 23,403 10.000 10.610 27,610 23,076 23,315 26,802 24,920 33,045 33,045 30,396 11.840 11.840 2,649 2,649 9,364 7,166 5,623 1,344 3,992 1,628 1,606 3,674 1,302 1,466 1,0 2,844 1,654 2,332 2,1 2,429 1,648 (208) (203) (315) (944) (31) (88) (44) (97) 203 203 415 415 16) 4 (9) 4 08 75 A A )

(1 ( (1 (36,018) (14,497) (27,724) (13,807) (23,834) 102,875 102,875 ) 53,454 (1,400) (8,181) (1,590) (6 (2,750) (2,089) (9,353) (7,854) (9,764) FY1 FY1 33,0 69,830 8 71,172 20,782 10,000 4 13,955 17,879 24,320 14.051 10.330 34,981 24, 24,261 32,326 23,135 52,370 76,204 2,939 ) 4,447 7,497 1,217 9,990 9,990 2,624 8,862 2,019 1,604 1,466 1,590 5,543 4,215 2,490 2,338 9.700 2,4 9,455 (175) ,416) ( (97) (59) 149 15 5 5 45 45 86 A A 0 ) )

(14,481) (12,829) (13,336) (13,675) (36,503) (24,913) (28,654) (25,737) 102,875 102,875 10 117,600 117,600 (6,807) (3,058) (2,072) (1,303) 44,682 44,682 26,549 FY1 15.261 10.235 41,939 26,41 26,413 34,037 28,373 70,405 FY1 14,724 14,724 23,609 11,064 11,064 6,909 6,909 2,177 2,177 2,617 5,336 1,702 3,800 6,068 2,748 2,581 5,215 3,507 9.611 9.611 (230) (568) (136) (681) (120) 500 500 482 857 547 681 6 6 E E 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

(54,424) (15,506) (17,492) (17,972) (18,691) (43,260) (28,706) (12,311) 152,109 152,109 152,109 152,109 117,600 117,600 (9,368) (2,187) (2,296) 97,685 97,685 FY1 72,566 72,566 15,390 12,890 18,766 36,535 FY1 18.919 12.841 13.675 53,553 36,347 36,347 46,839 34,509 34,509 41,113 41,113 2,831 2,831 2,658 7,676 5,203 5,203 3,148 2,055 3,551 2,342 5,406 7,924 (187) (937) (120) (501) (253) 237 237 402 402 550 656 937 7 7 E E 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

(21,602) (22,212) (23,127) (79,662) (49,643) (32,251) (16,193) (11,097) 196,381 196,381 196,381 196,381 152,109 116,718 116,718 (2,459) (2,860) (1,803) (1,110) 20.985 20.985 14.767 15.726 61,182 43,055 43,055 55,484 10,846 46,797 FY1 44,272 44,272 84,609 13,436 20,010 43,277 FY1 2,916 2,916 2,738 9,306 9,306 4,229 5,077 6,471 2,774 6,980 9,671 1,110 1,110 (222) (120) (299) (278) (303) 299 299 605 605 983 787 8 8 E E 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

Deferred Revenue Deferred Payable Tax Income Borrowings Bank Current Borrowings Secured liabilities Other and Payable, Accounts Expenses, Accrued Liabilities Current Assets Total Total Non Current Assets Assets Other and Receivables Prepayments, Assets Intangible Rights Use Land Goodwill Investee Equity in Investment Securities Investment net and Equipment, Property Assets Current Non Assets Current Total Escrow and Cash Restricted Assets Other and Receivables Prepayments, net Receivable, Loans Short Securities Investment Equivalents Cash and Cash Assets Current Sheet Balance GMV GMV Retail in rate monetization Ad GMV Retail Mobile in rate monetization Monetization Rate margin Net EBITDA marg margin Operating margin Gross Margin% (GAAP) profit Net EBITDA Operati Profit Gross Revenue Growth YoY Stock non - Non non non Indicators Key Shareholders’ Equity & mezzanine Liabilities, Total Total Shareholders’ Equity equity shareholders’ Total AlibabaGroup Holdin Noncontroling Interest To Liabilities Current Non Total Other Liabilities Liabilities Tax Deferred Revenue Deferred Non Non CurrentLiabilities Liabilities Current Total Payable Money Escrow Deposits Merchant Commission monetization rate in Retail Retail in rate monetization Commission GMV Retail Desktop in rate monetization

tal mezzanine equity mezzanine tal - - - - GAAP gross profit gross GAAP GAAP net profit net GAAP profit operating GAAP GAAP EBITDA current Bank Borrowings Bank current

- - term Investments term Based compensation compensation Based ng profit ng

customer Advances customer

Receivables g Limited

111,549 111,549 111,549 111,549 173.3% FY1 FY1 43,716 43,716 17,666 67,833 13,159 10,587 33,045 27,610 27,610 30,731 28,167 40,289 30,417 29,338 10,401 34,354 37,384 11,887 11,887 11,793 30,711 30,711

0.72% 1.77% 0.91% 2.94% 2.55% 44.4% 47.5% 50.7% 74.5% 73.4% 73.2% 57.8% 52.1% 6,496 6,496 1,267 1,100 9,264 2,087 1,906 1,660 3,023 5,581 4,921 4,679 1,442 2,844 2,844 1,079 1,079 2,136 2,659 4,711 4,711 428 428 4 4 A A

255,434 255,434 142,109 108,193 255,434 255,434 157,413 145,439 113,325 113,325 FY1 FY1 19,834 19,834 41,933 33,877 12,978 14,148 34,981 34,981 40,699 37,040 44,767 67,515 50,603 39,672 14,611 14,611 11,974 11,974 11,974

0.79% 1.62% 1.79% 2.89% 2.44% 31.8% 30.6% 36.1% 68.7% 33.8% 45.1% - 7,914 7,914 2,733 1,990 4,085 6,575 3,105 9,139 2,297 3,658 5,543 5,543 4,493 7,201 4.1% 3.4% 6.6% 835 835 658 658 445 5 5 A A 0 0

279,336 279,336 128,763 150,573 279,336 279,336 183,962 171,852 117,600 117,600 10,845 10,845 27,922 10,434 42,352 36,381 17,533 14,243 10,860 15,563 FY1 41,939 41,939 47,759 43,763 73,417 FY1 44,513 26,296 59,602 14,430 12,110 12,110 12,110

0.90% 1.51% 2.27% 2.69% 2.44% 24.7% 26.7% 32.3% 65.9% 25.6% 22.2% 34.4% 40.3% 3,280 3,280 1,384 4,654 3,165 2,527 4,024 3,800 3,800 5,392 1,741 8.9% 790 790 715 6 6 E E 0 0

351,572 351,572 155,661 152,109 101,487 101,487 351,572 220,497 208,199 195,911 195,911 14,177 14,177 4 14,299 42,776 48,073 21,040 17,234 19,478 FY1 53,553 53,553 63,760 58,131 FY1 12,298 47,950 12,298 28,249 91,379 27,320 17,119 17,119

1.16% 1.51% 2.66% 2.74% 2.69% 23.9% 27.1% 32.3% 64.2% 37.6% 42.2% 44.7% 38.7% 42.3% 3,219 3,219 3,936 3,936 1,487 8,348 3,892 2,779 4,426 5,406 5,406 6,470 1,241 11 948 948 934 7 7 E E 0 0 of of

120,646 120,646 423,326 263,774 251,255 423,326 180,498 242,829 196,381 112,869 112,869 61,182 61,182 71,514 64,702 FY1 12,519 54,350 12,519 33,072 33,791 15,100 56,573 18,215 43,204 61,661 25,248 19,130 19,691 18,831 FY1 1.24% 1.53% 2.80% 2.74% 2.78% 21.9% 23.9% 28.8% 59.4% 18.5% 15.1% 13.8% 19.5% 29.1%

6,980 6,980 1,137 7,764 4,723 1,741 8,439 4,601 3,057 4,869 995 995 942 8 8 E E 0 0

Company Report Alibaba Group 阿里巴巴集团（BABA US） 11 May 2015 (4) (3) (2) (Hong Kong) Limited ("Guotai Junan"). Guotai Junan and its group companies may do business that relates to companies to relates that business do may companies group its and Ju Junan Guotai by Guotai securities Junan"). for ("Guotai subscribe or Limited Kong) purchase (Hong acquire, to offer or invitation an constitute not does Report Research This DISCLAIMER

Se (1) OF INTERESTS DISCLOSURE months 18 to 6 Horizon: Time Composite NASDAQ Benchmark: The Definition Rating Sector months 18 6to Horizon: Time Composite NASDAQ Benchmark: The Definition Rating Company Website: www.gtja.com.hk Website: Queen’ 181 Plaza, Millennium Grand Block, 27/F., Low Guotai Report, Research this in contained data and information the of accuracy the ensure to made been has effort best Though deci investment or opinions to contrary be report this in expressed opinions Any of companies. group Junan of Guotai executives professional other and dealers persons, opin to contrary be or differ may report this in expressed opinions Any s manager, lead agent, proprietarily). placing or invest the underwriter example, (for etc. and services investment banking, investment including reports, research 9118 Fax: -9118 Fax: 2509 Tel.: (852) (852) - 2509 201 © jurisdiction. such within requirement licensing or registration any to companies group its and Junan i Guota or regulati law subject applicable to contrary be would use or availability publication, distribution, such located or of where or resident jurisdiction a any in is citizen who entity or person any by, or use to distribution for nded inte or at, directed not is Report Research This decision. investment any to prior risks, advisers related its and financial own objectives their consult investment the necessary where and comprehend and understand should unpredic Investors inherently contain. with may uncertainty conditions so economic and situation, mutable political future the of assumptions the from derived forecasts and estimates -looking forward some contain may Report Research This notherein. data guarantee and the accuracy information and the of completeness e Underperform Neutral Outperform Rating Sell Reduce Neutral Accumulate Buy Rating

th Guotai Junan and its group companie group its and Junan Guotai Shandong for Except associates andtheir The Analysts do not hold equal to or more than 1% of of th 1% than more or to equal hold not do within the preceding 12 months. 12 preceding the within (02886), Limited Company Investment Binhai and (01788) Limited Holdings International Junan The Analysts and their a andtheir The Analysts 5 e

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