Company Report: Alibaba Group (BABA US) Ray Zhao 赵 睿 公司报告:阿里巴巴集团 (BABA US) +86 755 23976755
[email protected] 国泰君安研究 11 May 2015 FY15 FCF RMB48.1bn, Tremendous Hidden Value, ‘Buy’ FY15自由现金流RMB481亿,巨大隐藏价值,“买入” TJA Research TJA G Alibaba Group announced 4QFY15 results, slightly above market Rating: Buy expectation. GMV reached RMB600bn, up 40% yoy, with mobile GMV of Maintained RMB304bn, up 158% yoy, 50.6% of total GMV. Revenue reached 评级: 买入 (维持) RMB17,425mn, up 44.8% yoy, 3.6% above consensus forecast. Mobile revenue reached RMB5,247mn, up 351.5% yoy. Net profit reached RMB2,893mn, down 48.4% yoy, 10% below market expectation. Non GAAP 6-18m TP 目标价: US$110.00 原目标价 net profit reached RMB7,741mn, up 16.0% yoy, 15.6% above market Revised from : US$110.00 consensus. FY15 Free Cash Flow reached an amazing level of 价: ADS US$87.060 RMB48,121mn, up 49.1% yoy. Key points: 1) Robust Tmall GMV growth above expectation. Tmall GMV reached RMB219bn, up 62.2%, up 1.1ppt qoq. 2) State Council Stock performance 股价表现 announced favorable policies for small & micro ecommerce including 80 tax reduction and more credit support, benefiting Taobao. 3) New % change businesses grew fast. New businesses mainly include Ant Financial, 65 Aliyun, Alibaba Pictures and Alibaba Health. Maintain Target Price at USD110.00 with ‘Buy’ investment rating. We 50 think Alibaba’s new businesses grew very fast and might come into the 35 valuation. FCF might exceed RMB1,00bn in 2 years. Our FY16-18 Non GAAP net profit estimates are RMB41.9bn, RMB53.6bn and RMB61.2bn, 20 respectively.