DOCSLIB.ORG

Intensity Estimation Associated with Tropical Cyclone 'Megh' by The

Total Page：16

File Type：pdf, Size：1020Kb

Download full-text PDF Read full-text
Intensity Estimation Associated with Tropical Cyclone 'Megh' by The INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF EARTH AND ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE Journal homepage: www.jakraya.com/journal/ ijeas ORIGINAL ARTICLE Intensity Estimation Associated with Tropical Cyclone ‘Megh’ by the Spatial Distribution of Wind Shear and CAPE Sushil Kumar 1*, Ashish Routray 2, P.V.S. Raju 3 and Bhanumati Panda 4 1*Department of Applied Mathematics, School of Vocational Studies and Applied Sciences, Gautam Buddha University, Greater Noida-201312, India. 2National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (NCMRWF), A-50, Sector 62, Noida 201309, India. 3Centre for Ocean Atmospheric Science and Technology, Amity University Rajasthan, NH-11C, Kant Kalwar, Jaipur, India. 4Department of Applied Science and Humanities, I.T.S Engineering College, Greater Noida, U.P-201308, India. Abstract Vertical wind shear and Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) are of those mainly significant parameters which affect the intensity of a tropical cyclone (TC). The TCs are categorized as having large or small ambient vertical wind shear. Highly sheared tropical storms produce larger area-averaged CAPE versus relatively un-sheared storms. The vortex-scale increase in the quantities lessens the negative impact of *Corresponding Author: large vertical wind shear. The effects of wind shear on TC genesis is explored from climatological perspective. The physical process of TC Sushil Kumar genesis in wind shear is reconnoitered for Extremely Severe Tropical Cyclone Megh (2015) over the Arabian Sea with high-resolution numerical Email: [email protected] simulation using a mesoscale model in an idealized framework. The simulation study results that in terms of the formation of a closed, low-level Submitted: 20/01/2018 circulation, moderate wind shear is indeed more conducive to genesis, but Accepted: 15/06/2018 is also very prohibitive to further development of the cyclone. The reasons for the greater favorableness of vertical wind shear versus no wind shear, and of westerly shear versus easterly shear, are discussed briefly in the context in a reasonable sense. Based on the spatial plots of CAPE, zonal wind shear and vertical wind shear, it is clearly seen that the TC Megh is most intense on 08 November but due to a gradual increase in the wind shear it lost the intensity and started to be dissipated towards the land-fall. Keywords: Tropical cyclone, CAPE, Wind shear, Arabian Sea. 1. Introduction density along the coast, apart from comparatively Bay of Bengal (BoB) and Arabian Sea (AS) are higher track prediction errors for damaging the life and contributing about 7% of total tropical cyclones (TCs) property due to TCs nearby the regions. Hence, for over the world (WMO technical report 2008). planning and implementation of the mitigation However, BoB is facing more frequently TCs both in measures effectively, it is desirable to reasonably general and land-falling and hence causes more correct prediction of track, intensity, and associated disasters than the AS TCs (IMD, 2008). Arabian Sea is post cyclone effects of these devastating storms at least also facing all types of TCs time to time and land- in 48 h advance to save the loss of life and property falling TCs over the AS has shown a steady increase significantly. Though, there has been substantial due to the growing population and development near progress in the forecast of related fields of TCs using the coastal area. Various researchers (Mohanty and various global and mesoscale models, still there is lot Gupta, 1997; Gupta, 2006) have found that predicting of scope for the improvement of the performance of track and intensity beyond 24h over the NIO (including these numerical weather prediction models. Many Bay of Bengal (BoB) and Arabian Sea (AS)) have lot attempts have been done to improve the efficiency of of limitations using synoptic and statistical methods. the models by improving grid resolution, physical There are various factors like poor socio-economic parameterizations, different combinations of the conditions, shallow bathymetry, and huge population schemes and data assimilation, etc. For the International Journal of Earth and Atmospheric Science | April-June, 2018 | Volume 05 | Issue 02 | Pages 94-100 © 2018 Jakraya Kumar et al… Intensity Estimation Associated with Tropical Cyclone ‘Megh’ by the Spatial Distribution of Wind Shear and CAPE development and intensification of TCs (Anthes, 1982), weakened rapidly to SCS to CS on next day and deep one of the important aspects is the procedure of depression (DD) at 0600 UTC of 10 th . Finally, it physical parameterizations in terms of surface fluxes crossed to Yemen coast near latitude 13.4°N and of heat, moisture, momentum, cumulus convection, and longitude 46.1°E around 0900 UTC 10 th as a DD after vertical mixing in the planetary boundary layer (PBL). recurving to northeastwards and on same day slow Due to generation of the huge fluxes of heat, moisture, down to depression. It continued to a well-marked low and momentum, PBL is a significant factor for study pressure area over Yemen and neighborhood at 1800 (Braun and Tao, 2000). Hence, many PBL UTC of 10 th and cyclone Megh occurred back to back parameterization schemes (PBLSs) is included in the just after a week of formation after Chapala. NWP models (Mellor and Yamada, 1982; Hong et al., 2006). Various cumulus parameterization schemes 3. WRF Modeling System (CPSs) is also developed to resolve the issue of very Present study is based on using Advanced small scale of convective clouds in the numerical Weather Research and Forecast model version 3.2.1 models and included into three-dimensional mesoscale which is developed at the National Center for models (Kuo, 1974; Arakawa and Schubert, 1974; Atmospheric Research (NCAR) with the collaboration Anthes, 1977; Betts and Miller, 1986; Kain and Fritsch, many other organizations namely National Oceanic and 1993; Grell, 1993) and mostly these schemes applied Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the National for specific convective environment (Grell, 1993; Kuo Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), and et al., 1996). Raju et al. (2012) simulated the four various universities (Dudhi, 2004). Non-hydrostatic severe TCs over the BoB during the 2007-2010 using mesoscale WRF model is designed for fine-scale WRF (ARW) models and concluded that the model atmospheric phenomena of few kilometers or less well predicted the cyclone track, intensity in terms of horizontal grid lengths (Michalakes et al., 2005; central pressure, maximum sustained winds, and Skamarock et al., 2005). Eulerian mass dynamical core precipitation reasonably. is used with Arakawa C-grid staggering with terrain- In this study, extremely severe tropical cyclone following hybrid sigma-pressure vertical coordinates ‘Megh’ is considered formed over the Arabian Sea and for time integration Runge-Kutta 2 nd and 3 rd order during November 2015 to examine the performance of schemes are used. Advection schemes are used from WRF-ARW core model in terms of wind shear, 2nd to 6 th order in both the horizontal and vertical intensity and CAPE. Section 2 contains a brief directions with a time-split small step for acoustic and description of synoptic features of the ‘Megh’ cyclone, gravity-wave modes (Skamarock and Klemp, 2008). while in Section 3, details of the WRF modeling Raju et al. (2011) carried out sensitivity experiments system. The results of the model simulations are based on cumulus convection, PBL schemes, and presented for weather parameters such as wind shear, microphysics schemes and found that YSU PBL, Kain- strong winds, mean sea level pressure associated with Fritsch Convective schemes and Ferrier microphysics the ‘Megh’ cyclone and CAPE analysis. Section 4 and schemes are simulating Bay of Bengal cyclone Nargis. Section 5 provides a detailed discussion of the results Sateesh et al (2017) found that YSU schemes produced and concluding remarks respectively. a better simulation for the THANE cyclone in terms of winds, pressure distribution and cloud fractions against 2. Synoptic Features of Severe Cyclone MYJ scheme. In this study, convective ‘Megh’ Over Arabian Sea during Nov, parameterization of Kain-Fritsch new Eta scheme 2015 (Kain and Fritsch, 1993), the planetary Yonsei A Low level circulation is started over University (YSU) of boundary layer and microphysics Lakshadweep and nearby and formed into depression schemes of Ferrier (new Eta) and Dudhia shortwave over the east-central Arabian Sea (AS) at 0000 UTC of radiation scheme (Dudhia, 1989) is used in the simulation of ‘Megh’ TC. NCEP global operational 5th November 2015 and became cyclonic storm (CS) at 0 1200 UTC of 5 th November after moving analysis at 1X1 horizontal resolutions are used for westwards/west-southwestwards. On 0600 UTC of 7 th , initial inputs for the cyclone simulations and lateral boundary conditions are taken from the NCEP-GFS intensified into severe cyclonic storm (SCS) towards 0 west-southwestward and became a very severe cyclonic data for the time-varying at 6-h intervals. USGS at 10 storm (VSCS) at 1500 UTC of 7 th at 1500 UTC and resolutions data are used for model topography and within 10-12 hours, storm intensified into an extremely simulations are compared from the IMD observations. severe cyclonic storm (ESCS) at 0300 UTC of 8 th for Model configuration is given in Table 1 which is used next 06 hours. Then, it became down to VSCS at 0000 for simulation of ‘Megh’ TC. UTC of 9 th and moved towards west-northwestward. It International Journal of Earth and Atmospheric Science | April-June,
Load more

Recommended publications
  • English and Arabic, Was Provided
    Report of the FAO Commission for Controlling the Desert Locust in the Central Region Thirtieth Session &Thirty Fourth Executive Committee Meeting Muscat, Sultanate of Oman 19 – 24 February 2017 Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome, 2017 The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) concerning the legal or development status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. The mention of specific companies or products of manufacturers, whether or not these have been patented, does not imply that these have been endorsed or recommended by FAO in preference to others of a similar nature that are not mentioned. The views expressed in this information product are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of FAO. © FAO, 2017 FAO encourages the use, reproduction and dissemination of material in this information product. Except where otherwise indicated, material may be copied, downloaded and printed for private study, research and teaching purposes, or for use in non-commercial products or services, provided that appropriate acknowledgement of FAO as the source and copyright holder is given and that FAO’s endorsement of users’ views, products or services is not implied in any way. All requests for translation and adaptation rights, and for resale and other commercial use rights should be made via www.fao.org/contact-us/licence-request or addressed to [email protected].
    [Show full text]
  • NASA Sees an Elongated Tropical Cyclone Megh in the Gulf of Aden 9 November 2015, by Rob Gutro
    NASA sees an elongated Tropical Cyclone Megh in the Gulf of Aden 9 November 2015, by Rob Gutro southeastern Yemen on November 10, just north of the city of Aden. On Nov. 9 at 10:05 UTC (5:05 a.m. EST) the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) instrument aboard NASA-NOAA's Suomi NPP satellite captured a visible image of Tropical Cyclone Megh in the Gulf of Aden. The Gulf is located in the Arabian Sea between Yemen, on the south coast of the Arabian Peninsula, and Somalia in the Horn of Africa The VIIRS image showed powerful thunderstorms northwest and southeast of the center and in bands extending southwest and northeast of the center. The storm appeared somewhat elongated. VIIRS collects visible and infrared imagery and global observations of land, atmosphere, cryosphere and oceans. At 1500 UTC (10 a.m. EST) on November 10, maximum sustained winds were near 75 knots (86.3 mph138.9 kph), down from 85 knots (97.3 mph/157.4 kph) six hours previously. Megh was centered near 12.5 degrees north latitude and 47.5 degrees east longitude, about 130 nautical miles On Nov. 9 at 10:05 UTC (5:05 a.m. EST), the VIIRS (149.7 miles/240.9 km) south-southwest of Mukalla, instrument aboard NASA-NOAA's Suomi NPP satellite Yemen. Megh has tracked westward at 16 knots captured a visible image of an elongated Tropical (18.4 mph/29.6 kph) and is expected to curve to the Cyclone Megh in the Gulf of Aden, Arabian Sea.
    [Show full text]
  • Back-To-Back Occurrence of Tropical Cyclones in the Arabian Sea During October- November 2015: Causes and Responses
    Author Version of : Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, vol.125(6); 2020; Article no: e2019JC015836 Back-to-back occurrence of tropical cyclones in the Arabian Sea during October- November 2015: Causes and responses Riyanka Roy Chowdhury1, S. Prasanna Kumar2*, Jayu Narvekar2, Arun Chakraborty1 1 Centre for Oceans, Rivers, Atmosphere and Land Sciences, Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur, Kharagpur 721302, West Bengal, India 2CSIR-National Institute of Oceanography Dona Paula, Goa-403 004, India *Corresponding author: S. Prasanna Kumar ([email protected]) Abstract In the Arabian Sea, two extremely severe cyclonic storms occurred back-to-back during October- November 2015. Using a suite of ocean and atmospheric data we examined the upper ocean responses of tropical cyclones Chapala and Megh, the latter originated immediately after the dissipation of the former. Cyclones Chapala and Megh cooled the sea surface by 1.5oC and 1.0oC respectively, which was also captured by Bio-Argo float in the vicinity of their tracks. The cyclone- induced chlorophyll-a enhancement was 6 and 2 times respectively from their pre-cyclone value of 0.36 and 0.30 mg/m3, while the net primary productivity showed an increase of 5.8 and 1.7 times respectively from the pre-cyclone values of 496.26 and 518.63 mg C m-2 day-1 after the passage of Chapala and Megh. The CO2 flux showed a 6-fold and 2-fold increase respectively compared to the pre-cyclone value of 2.69-3.58 and 6.78 mmol m-2 day-1. We show that the anomalous co-occurrence of the positive phase of Indian Ocean dipole and the strong El Niño supported large-scale warming in the western Arabian Sea.
    [Show full text]
  • Somalia, Yemen - Tropical Cyclones MEGH and CHAPALA
    Emergency Response Coordination Centre (ERCC) – ECHO Daily Map | 06/11/2015 Somalia, Yemen - Tropical Cyclones MEGH and CHAPALA SITUATION • According to the latest reports the Tropical Cyclone CHAPALA affected southern Yemen, causing eight fatalities 8 and at least 40 people injured in Hadramaut Governorate. Another three 40 people were killed and more than 200 were injured in Socotra island. The areas 14 400 most affected by CHAPALA were Socotra island, Shabwah and Hadramaut governorates in Yemen where 44 000 people are already displaced. Also CHAPALA affected areas of northeastern Somalia where it destroyed houses, sunk 6 000 fishing boats and displaced hundreds of people • UN convoys with humanitarian supplies 1 Nov, 18.00 UTC 205 km/h sust. winds were expected to move from Aden and 3 Nov, 6.00 UTC Sana’a for Mukalla on 5 November. 120 km/h sust. winds Besides, humanitarian cargo is being shipped by sea from Djibouti to Aden. Air transport is currently being assessed to 7 Nov, 18.00 UTC airlift humanitarian goods to Socotra 10 Nov, 6.00 UTC 139 km/h sust. winds 93 km/h sust. winds 3 Island. 9 Nov, 6.00 UTC • A new Tropical Cyclone MEGH is moving 130 km/h sust. winds 200 west over the Arabian Sea, strengthening. On 6 November at 6.00 UTC, it had max. 11 Nov, 6.00 UTC 18 000 sustained wind speed of 83 km/h and its 46 km/h sust. winds 6 Nov, 6.00 UTC centre was located approx. 800 km east of 83 km/h sust.
    [Show full text]
  • Impact of GPS Radio Occultation Data Assimilation in the Prediction of Two Arabian Sea Tropical Cyclones
    INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF EARTH AND ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE Journal homepage: www.jakraya.com/journal/ ijeas ORIGINAL ARTICLE Impact of GPS Radio Occultation Data Assimilation in the Prediction of Two Arabian Sea Tropical Cyclones D. Srinivas 1, Venkata B. Dodla 1*, Hari Prasad Dasari 2 and G C Satyanarayana 1 1K L University, Green Fields, Vaddeswaram-522 502, A.P., INDIA. 2Physical Sciences and Engineering Division, King Abdullah University of Science and Technology, Saudi Arabia. Abstract Numerical prediction of the movement and intensification of tropical cyclone over North Indian Ocean (NIO) is very important for the *Corresponding Author: emergency management system in order to prevent the damage to properties and loss of lives. Numerical models are the tools to generate Prof. Venkata B. Dodla forecasts at near real time, which provide the guidance. Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model is the current state of art model used in the Email: [email protected] present study. GPS radio occultation (GPSRO) data are assimilated into the WRF model and data assimilation (WRFDA) system. The present study emphasizes the utilization of GPSRO observations in the prediction of Received: 30/04/2016 tropical cyclones over NIO. Numerical prediction of the movement and intensification of two extremely severe cyclonic storms ‘Chapala’ and Revised: 13/06/2016 ‘Megh’ had genesis in the Arabian Sea are taken up as case studies. The Accepted: 30/06/2016 results show that GPSRO observations have the positive impact in improving the initial conditions and so the forecast skill of tropical cyclones, in reducing the track errors and improving intensification . Keywords: Data Assimilation, 3DVAR, Tropical Cyclone, GPSRO, Prediction .
    [Show full text]
  • Highlights © IOM 2015 (Photo: IOM Yemen)
    INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATION FOR MIGRATION SITUATION REPORT 12 November 2015 IOM staff conducting hygiene promotion sessions in Al Basateen for 30 male Ethiopian migrants, Aden. Highlights © IOM 2015 (Photo: IOM Yemen) Since April, IOM has assisted 2,060 In response to Cyclones Chapala and Between 5 and 11 November, 112 migrants, including 90 resettlement cases to Megh, IOM is transporting 100 Non-Food migrants attended awareness sessions on Sweden and France to leave Yemen by air, Item kits containing mattresses, blankets, irregular migration, and around 50 host and has also organized 12 boat rotations and cooking equipment to Shabwah community members benefited from evacuating a total of 2,257 migrants by sea. governorate, which will be distributed to human trafficking awareness raising 700 displaced persons. sessions by IOM in Djibouti. Situation Overview Between 5 and 11 November, airstrikes, armed clashes and shelling took place in Amran, Al Bayda, Al Dhale’e, Al Jawf, Hajjah, Marib, Sa’dah Shabwah and Taizz governorates. Tropical Cyclone Megh, another Arabian Sea tropical cyclone, passed over Socotra on 8 November. As of 10 November, Tropical Cyclone Megh has weakened from a Tropical Storm to a Tropical Depression and is now dissipating, with no significant wind or rain reported as it made landfall with mainland Yemen. The impact of Cyclone Megh on Socotra Island has been severe, with local residents reporting that it was more severe than Cyclone Chapala (Source: OCHA, 9 November). The humanitarian community is finding it difficult to determine the total number of people in need as a result of the two cyclones as the telephone lines are mostly down, and the inability to access the affected areas (Abyan, Hadramaut, Shabwah, Al Mahara and Socotra).
    [Show full text]
  • DJIBOUTI Briefing Note – 22 May 2018 Tropical Cyclone Sagar
    DJIBOUTI Briefing note – 22 May 2018 Tropical Cyclone Sagar A tropical cyclone developed on 16 May in the Gulf of Aden, between Yemen and Somalia, known as Cyclone Sagar. It hit Djibouti on 19 May causing heavy rains and flash floods (OCHA 22/05/2018; Weather Underground 17/05/2018; ECHO Daily Flash 21/05/2018). The areas most affected by flash floods are Djibouti City and the suburb of Balbala. 25-50,000 people have been affected by flash floods and likely displaced, and two deaths have been reported (OCHA 22/05/2018; OCHA 20/05/2018; ECHO Daily Flash 21/05/2018). Two sectors of Obock town, in Obock Region, are also flooded. Damages to shelters by heavy rains have been reported in Ali Addeh refugee settlement. No needs have been reported for the population in Ali Addeh and Obock town (OCHA 20/05/2018). Source: OCHA 22/05/2018 Key priorities Humanitarian constraints 25’000-50’000 Major road networks across the affected area are impassable, restricting movement people affected, likely displaced between Balbala suburb and central Djibouti City (OCHA 20/05/2018). WASH needs are likely to be high Limitations The lack of granular information on the population in need by sector 1,500 makes it challenging to estimate whether the planned response will be damaged shelters in Djibouti City sufficient to meet the needs of the affected population. Most of the reporting on the impact of Tropical Cyclone Sagar refers to the situation in Somalia and Djibouti within the same document. This creates confusion over whether the reported impact and needs refer to Somalia or Djibouti, or to both countries.
    [Show full text]
  • Wmo/Escap Panel on Tropical Cyclones
    WORLD METEOROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION AND UNITED NATIONS ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL COMMISSION FOR ASIA AND THE PACIFIC WMO/ESCAP PANEL ON TROPICAL CYCLONES FORTY-THIRD SESSION New Delhi, India (2 - 6 May 2016) Final Report GENERAL SUMMARY OF THE WORK OF THE SESSION 1. ORGANIZATION OF THE SESSION The forty-third session of WMO/ESCAP Panel on Tropical Cyclones (PTC) was hosted by India Meteorological Department in New Delhi, India, from 2 to 6 May 2016. The session was attended by 60 participants from the six Members of the PTC, namely Bangladesh, India, Maldives, Oman, Sri Lanka and Thailand. It was also attended by the representatives of World Meteorological Organization (WMO), United Nation Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (UN-ESCAP), and observers from ICAO, RIMES, member from the WMO/WWRP WGTMR. The list of the participants is given in ANNEX 1.I. 1.1 Opening of the PTC 43rd Session The opening ceremony of 43rd Session of WMO/ESCAP Panel on Tropical Cyclones (PTC) was held during 1000 to 1130 hours IST of 2nd May, 2016 at New Delhi. The ceremony started with welcome address by Dr. M. Mohapatra, Head Regional Specialised Meteorological Centre, New Delhi. At the outset, Dr. Mohapatra welcomed Dr. M. Rajeevan, Secretary, Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES), Government of India; Dr. L. S. Rathore, Director General of Meteorology, India Meteorological Department (DGM, IMD); Dr. S.D. Attri, Deputy Director General of Meteorology (Organisation); Dr. Shamika Sirimanne, Director, Information and Communications Technology and Disaster Risk Reduction Division, UN-ESCAP; Dr. Xu Tang, Director, Weather and Disaster Risk Reduction Service Department, WMO; Mr.
    [Show full text]
  • Natural Catastrophes and Man-Made Disasters in 2015
    No 1 /2016 Natural catastrophes and 01 Executive summary 02 Catastrophes in 2015: man-made disasters in 2015: global overview Asia suffers substantial losses 07 Regional overview 13 Tianjin: a puzzle of risk accumulation and coverage terms 17 Leveraging technology in disaster management 21 Tables for reporting year 2015 43 Terms and selection criteria Executive summary In 2015, there were a record 198 natural There were 353 disaster events in 2015, of which 198 were natural catastrophes, catastrophes. the highest ever recorded in one year. There were 155 man-made events. More than 26 000 people lost their lives or went missing in the disasters, double the number of deaths in 2014 but well below the yearly average since 1990 of 66 000. The biggest loss of life – close to 9000 people – came in an earthquake in Nepal in April. Globally, total losses from disasters were Total economic losses caused by the disasters in 2015 were USD 92 billion, down USD 92 billion in 2015, with most in from USD 113 billion in 2014 and below the inflation-adjusted average of USD 192 Asia. Close to 9000 people died in an billion for the previous 10 years. Asia was hardest hit. The earthquake in Nepal was earthquake in Nepal. the biggest disaster of the year in economic-loss terms, estimated at USD 6 billion, including damage reported in India, China and Bangladesh. Cyclones in the Pacific, and severe weather events in the US and Europe also generated large losses. Insured losses were USD 37 billion, low Global insured losses from catastrophes were USD 37 billion in 2015, well below relative to the previous 10-year average.
    [Show full text]
  • ETOP SITREP Update for October 2015
    ETOP UPDATE X-2015 OFDA-AELGA ISSUED NOVEMBER 10, 2015 Emergency Transboundary insufficient rainfall during October Outbreak Pest (ETOP) Situation (IRLCO-CSA). Update for October with a Forecast till mid-December, 2015 Madagascar Migratory Locust avec un résumé en français (LMC): The third and final phase of the three-year locust campaign that began SUMMARY in late August, 2015 continued. 1 The Desert Locust (SGR ) situation Italian (CIT), Moroccan (DMA), remained calm in the primary outbreak Asian Migratory (LMI) Locusts in areas and major locust activities were Central Asia and the Caucasus (CAC): not reported in October. Locust activities have ended in CAC and no further developments are Forecast: Unusually good rains that expected until spring, 2016. fell in Sahel West Africa and parts of North Africa will likely create favorable African Armyworm (AAW): AAW conditions for locusts to concentrate activities were not reported during and begin breeding during the forecast October. period. Quelea quelea (QQU): QQU birds The SGR will likely begin developing in were reported attacking irrigated rice the Arabian Peninsula and the southern crops in Busia, Siaya and Nyahururu Red Sea coasts in Yemen, Oman, and countries in Kenya and sorghum in Somalia where heavy rains fell during Meki in the eastern Rift Valley in the Tropical cyclones Chapala and Ethiopia (IRLCO-CSA). Megh during November. OFDA/PSPM is closely monitoring the OTHER ETOPS SGR and other ETOP situation in collaboration with partners at FAO, Red (Nomadic) Locust (NSE): NSE CLCPRO, CRC, DLCO-EA, IRLCO-CSA, populations and swarms persisted in and DPVs/PPDs in frontline countries the primary outbreak areas during and will continue providing updates October and heavy rainfall in and advise as often as necessary.
    [Show full text]
  • Tropical Cyclones CHAPALA and MEGH
    Emergency Response Coordination Centre (ERCC) – ECHO Daily Map | 09/11/2015 YEMEN – Tropical Cyclones CHAPALA and MEGH SITUATION • TC CHAPALA caused damage and deaths in Yemen on 1-5 November. As of 8 November, there were eight dead, at least 2 000 families displaced in Socotra, 2 400 in Hadramaut, 2 000 in Shabwa, and 160 in Abyan. Humanitarian partners’ assessments are being hampered by infrastructure damaged by previous conflicts and the cyclone. • On 8 November, another cyclone MEGH, passed over Socotra, affecting the island with strong winds and heavy rains. At least one person died and several homes collapsed. • In the morning of 9 November, MEGH is passing off the coast of north-eastern Somalia with max. sustained winds of 160 km/h. • Over the next 24 h, it is forecast to move north-west, 8 slightly weakening. It may reach the coast of Abyan 2 400 governorate (pop. 514 000), near the town of Shuqrah, in the morning of 10 November, with max. >40 sustained winds of 120 km/h. 2 000 • Strong winds and heavy rains may affect southern and central Yemen on 9-11 November, with the risk of 11 Nov 6.00 UTC flash floods and landslides. Heavy rains may also 3 Nov, 06.00 UTC affect northern Somalia on 9-10 November. Al Mukalla 120 km/h sust. winds Sources: GDACS, JTWC, ECHO, IMD, UN OCHA, NASA, Media TC CHAPALA - Accumulation rainfall 160 1 Nov, 18.00 UTC 204 km/h sust. winds 31 October – 5 November, NASA 3 Governorate most affected 50 - 100 mm Al Irqah 2 000 10 Nov 18.00 UTC 100 - 200 mm 74 km/h sust.
    [Show full text]
  • Cyclone Nisarga
    Cyclone Nisarga June 3, 2020 Mumbai, and its neighbouring districts prepare for Cyclone Nisarga, a severe cyclonic storm with wind speeds from 100 to 120 kmph. As of this hour, Cyclonic Storm is likely to strengthen into a Severe Cyclonic Storm during next 12 hours (during the afternoon of 03 June) with a maximum sustained wind speed of 100-110 kmph gusting to 120 kmph. It is very likely to recurve north-northeast wards thereafter and cross north Maharashtra coast close to Alibag (Raigad District, Maharashtra) as a Severe Cyclonic Storm. The damage potential of a severe cyclonic storm includes “extensive damage to kuccha houses; partial disruption of power and communication lines; minor disruption of rail and road traffic; potential threat from flying debris; and general flooding.” The Maharashtra State Disaster Management Authority and the National Disaster Response Forces gear up to reduce adverse impacts of Cyclone Nisarga. What would make Mumbai most vulnerable to this cyclonic storm Nisarga is that it is a densely packed, low lying city completely exposed to the sea. The low-lying areas can easily experience flooding in the event of a 1 to 2m storm surge or very heavy rains. This time, the city is also battling a Covid-19 outbreak - the state of Maharashtra, of which Mumbai is the capital, accounts for more than a third of India's reported infections. Modelled wind results derived by developing ADCIRC model of the cyclone track (as per IMD’s bulletin no:20 (ARB/02/2020) is provided in the following image: Figure 1: Nisarga wind hazard map Figure 2: Map of flooding due to Nisarga Increasing intensity of cyclonic storms in the Arabian Sea While all the research is indicating a decrease in frequency but increase in intensity of cyclones, the IMD in its “Statement on Climate of India during 2019” noted the increased contribution of the Arabian Sea to cyclones in the Indian seas for the year 2019 that saw Arabian Sea’s contribution rise to 5 out of the 8 cyclones.
    [Show full text]