Southeast Asia from the Corner of 18Th & K Streets

Sumitro Chair for Southeast Asia Studies

Southeast Asia from the Corner of 18th & K Streets

Volume IV | Issue 4| February 21, 2013

Brunei Takes on the Challenges of Chairing ASEAN in 2013 Inside This Issue the week that was murray hiebert and jeremiah o. magpile Murray Hiebert is deputy director and senior fellow at the Sumitro • Thein Sein calls for committee to assess Chair for Southeast Asia Studies at the Center for Strategic and political prisoner status International Studies in Washington, D.C. Jeremiah O. Magpile is a • Military base attack and deadly car bomb researcher for the Sumitro Chair mark uptick in southern Thailand violence • Japan to give Philippines 10 coast guard February 21, 2013 patrol boats . looking ahead Brunei Darussalam, the smallest country in Southeast Asia with a • Conversation on China’s rise and future population of only 400,000, faces some daunting challenges this year as it prospects chairs the 10-country ASEAN grouping. • Discussion on gender equality in the Asia Pacific For starters, Brunei must help manage tensions regarding the strategic South China Sea following last year’s acrimony after then-chair Cambodia, • Trans-Pacific Partnership negotiations to be a major recipient of assistance from Beijing, twice sought to limit held in Singapore discussion of China’s assertive actions in the disputed sea. This prompted protests from several Southeast Asian countries.

Second, with the group’s goal of achieving an ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) by the end of 2015, Brunei will need to press its neighbors to get cracking on implementing the agreed-upon economic road map.

A third task will involve keeping China and the United States engaged in the East Asia Summit (EAS). Many Southeast Asians wonder what impact the departure of Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Assistant Secretary of State for East Asia and the Pacific Kurt Campbell will have on the U.S. rebalance to Asia and U.S. relations with ASEAN.

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Brunei Takes on the Challenges of Chairing ASEAN in 2013 (continued) Brunei Two Models Takes for on Integratingthe Challenges Asia: Aof Must Chairing Win forASEAN President in 2013 Obama (continued) (continued)

Brunei has chosen as the theme for its chairmanship “Our people, our future together.” The sultanate will organize some 400 meetings throughout 2013. These will include two ASEAN leaders’ summits in April and October, the ASEAN Regional Forum attended by the foreign ministers of 27 Asia Pacific countries in June, and the 18-member East Asia Summit, which brings together ASEAN and its most important partners, including the United States, in October.

Bruneian officials say one of their priorities for 2013 will be enhancing the role of ASEAN youths in order to promote a region-wide sense of belonging. Other themes will include discussing environmental issues like climate change and natural disasters, tackling food and energy security, and addressing poverty eradication, sustainable development, and closing the income gap within ASEAN.

Without a doubt, Brunei’s biggest challenge will be to lower the rising nationalist sentiments in the South China Sea disputes. Since ASEAN The 19th ASEAN Regional Forum in last discussed the competing claims at the EAS last November, claimants Cambodia in July 2012. Brunei will need have continued to trade barbs over the issue, and the Philippines has filed to carefully manage tensions to prevent a motion to bring China’s claims before a UN arbitration tribunal. China a repeat of last year, when then-chair Cambodia attempted to limit discussions appears to see this latest move as a challenge to its new leadership and of the South China Sea. http://www.flickr. it may look for ways to respond, perhaps by refusing to join talks with com/photos/eeas/7556439922/ ASEAN on a long-awaited binding code of conduct for parties to the disputes.

Although Brunei is a claimant in the South China Sea, many observers give the oil-rich nation at least a shot at lowering the temperature in the disputed region because of its normally low-key international diplomatic stance. China is a major trading partner of Brunei, buying mainly oil and gas products, but it is not Brunei’s only partner, making Brunei less vulnerable to economic pressure than Cambodia was.

How well Brunei performs will depend at least in part on the diplomatic skills of its Foreign Ministry. Foreign Minister Prince Mohamed Bolkiah

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Brunei Takes on the Challenges of Chairing ASEAN in 2013 (continued)

advocates what he calls “defense diplomacy,” a doctrine that promotes regular and frequent dialogue and personal relations among the parties. It is these skills that the foreign minister will try to use to tamp down the dispute.

Economic integration is a potentially huge opportunity for ASEAN because it will reduce barriers to trade and the movement of capital and labor, which would promote economic growth. But most ASEAN countries are still far behind schedule in implementing their commitments, which has already forced the group to delay the launch of the AEC from the beginning of 2015 until the end of the year.

Despite the leaders’ declared goals of establishing an economic community, the interests of individual nations still often trump regional interests. At the end of 2012, ASEAN countries said they had implemented 75 percent of their goals toward achieving the AEC, up from 67.5 percent in 2011. Brunei’s objective this year will be to prod its fellow ASEAN members to step on the gas to implement the reforms to which they have already committed.

Brunei is under the gun to make progress on both the South China Sea and economic integration. Next year, Myanmar will serve as ASEAN chair. Despite its recent political and economic reforms, and efforts to normalize relations with the United States and Europe following five decades of diplomatic isolation, the country suffers from a shortage of the experienced officials necessary to resolve the complicated maritime disputes and press its neighbors to complete their AEC commitments. Myanmar’s chairmanship will likely be more successful if ASEAN and China can take steps this year to draft a code of conduct and if ASEAN countries can make progress in moving closer to the AEC.

Asians will watch carefully in the early months of the year to see if the U.S. rebalance toward Asia changes in the second Obama administration. Will newly appointed Secretary of State John Kerry, a Vietnam veteran who played a key role in the U.S. normalization of relations with Vietnam in the 1990s, visit Southeast Asia early in his tenure and attend the ASEAN Regional Forum in June? Will the presumptive secretary of defense, Chuck Hagel, another Vietnam veteran, participate in the ASEAN Defense Ministers Meeting-Plus in Brunei in May and the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore in June? Southeast Asians assume that President Barack Obama will attend the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Bali and the East Asia Summit in Brunei in October.

Some ASEAN countries have expressed concerns that the U.S. rebalance to Asia so far has focused too much on security and not enough on economics. President Obama at his summit with the ASEAN leaders in Cambodia last November unveiled two new programs that should help boost U.S. economic cooperation with the Southeast Asia countries. The first is an energy initiative that will provide $5 billion to the U.S. Export- Import Bank and $1 billion to the Overseas Private Investment Corporation to help U.S. companies sell American energy products in the region.

The Sultan Omar Ali Saifuddien Mosque in Bandar Seri Begawan, Brunei’s capital city. Brunei will chair ASEAN in 2013, and chose for its chairmanship theme “Our people, our future together.” http://www.flickr.com/ photos/winglessfay/328442562/

The second, the Expanded Economic Engagement or E3, will seek to boost the economic capacity of the ASEAN countries that have not joined the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade talks. This initiative will seek to promote trade facilitation for the movement of goods across borders, develop principles to encourage investment, and boost the digital economy, or e-commerce. U.S. officials hope that capacity building in the region under the E3 will make it possible eventually for the United States and ASEAN to negotiate a free trade agreement. ■

1800 k street nw, washington dc 20006 | t. 202.775.3211 | f. 202.775.3199 | www.csis.org The Week That Was

myanmar

• Thein Sein calls for committee to assess political prisoner status. President Thein Sein announced the formation of a committee on February 7 to review the country’s remaining political prisoners and possibly grant their release. The government has invited the opposition National League for Democracy and civil society organizations to send representatives to serve on the commission. The organizations have compiled a consensus list of 234 prisoners for government review. Myanmar has released several hundred political prisoners since the civilian government took office in 2011.

• Government denies hacking journalists’ e-mails. Deputy Minister of Information Ye Htut on February 11 denied allegations that the government hacked into the e-mail accounts of several Myanmar- and Thailand-based journalists. In early February, Google warned at least 12 reporters, including the Myanmar correspondent for the Associated Press and several employees of the prominent Eleven Media outlet, that attackers may have hacked into their accounts. Ye Htut said government policy did not include hacking and that he had received the same Google warning on his own account, dated a week after the alerts to reporters.

• Myanmar urges Thailand to expedite registration of undocumented migrants. Deputy Labor Minister Myint Thein visited Bangkok on February 9 and urged Thailand to complete its registration of undocumented Myanmar migrants living in the country. Officials have registered and provided temporary passports to 1.2 million workers under Thailand’s nationality verification project, but an estimated 1 million workers and 200,000 children remain in the country without proper paperwork. Migrants lacking documentation by the initiative’s March 16 deadline face possible deportation. A Myanmar migrant worker at a trash facility. Thailand must register all estimated 1 million Myanmar migrants • Myanmar to grant foreign press expanded access. Deputy Minister of living within its borders by March Information Ye Htut announced in early February that the government 16; those not registered face possible of Myanmar will soon provide expanded visa and access privileges to deportation. http://www.flickr.com/photos/ foreign journalists. Beginning in mid-April, foreign journalists will be able rustystewart/3698500046/sizes/m/in/ to apply for short-term, multi-entry, and long-term visas to report in the photostream/ country. The government will also permit journalists to speak directly with ministers and other government officials, as well as travel freely within the country. Journalist groups welcomed the announcement, though watchdogs such as Human Rights Watch expressed concern that laws prohibiting criticism of the state remain in effect.

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• Myanmar and Malaysia sign science and technology cooperation agreement. Malaysian minister of science, technology, and innovation Maximus Ongkili and his Myanmar counterpart, Ko Ko Oo, signed an agreement in Malaysia on February 5 pledging greater cooperation in science and technology. The agreement emphasizes cooperation on health, agriculture, and information and communication technology, and establishes opportunities for public-private partnerships and university collaboration between the two countries.

thailand

• Military base attack and deadly car bomb mark uptick in southern Thailand violence. Thai marines foiled an attack on a marine military base in Narathiwat’s Bacho district on February 13, killing at least 16 Muslim insurgents. The attack followed the detonation of a car bomb in Yala on February 10 that killed five Thai soldiers. Experts say the base attack was the deadliest in Thailand’s deep south since violence erupted in 2004, and that the two incidents indicate an escalation in the conflict. The central government is considering imposing a curfew in parts of the region.

• Bangkok governor hopeful linked to police scandal. Bangkok governor Sukhumbhand Paribatra released evidence February 11 alleging that his rival, Pongsapat Pongcharoen, was involved in an ongoing police corruption scandal. The document, a contract combining 396 police building initiatives into a single bid and awarding the project to PCC Development and Construction Company, bears Pongsapat’s signature of approval. Pongsapat has maintained that he was not involved in the scandal. A late January poll places the Pheu Thai Party-backed Pongsapat ahead in the gubernatorial race.

• Cabinet approves 2014 draft budget. The Thai cabinet on February 12 approved an $85 billion draft fiscal budget for 2014. The budget includes a deficit of $8.38 billion and a roughly 5.2 percent increase in government spending. The approval comes amid debates in Thailand on appropriate levels of public spending. The cabinet will review a $67 billion infrastructure package in mid-March that is expected to push the debt-to- GDP ratio from 40 percent to 50 percent.

• U.S. Consulate on high alert after terrorist threat. Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra ordered police to increase security around the U.S. Consulate in Chiang Mai in mid-February after receiving warnings of a planned al-Qaeda and Salafist terrorist attack on the building. Deputy Prime Minister Chalerm Yubamrung said drug traders perpetrated the plot in response to the consulate’s anti-drug trafficking initiatives. Police

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increased security personnel around the consulate and established a checkpoint. The United States did not request increased security but suspended nonurgent U.S. citizen services on February 12 and 14.

• United States, Thailand host Cobra Gold multilateral military exercises. Cobra Gold, an annual series of multilateral military exercises, kicked off in Chiang Mai on February 11. More than 13,000 military personnel from the United States, Thailand, Japan, South Korea, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore will participate in the exercises, with several other countries A CH-46E Sea Knight helicopter during observing, including Myanmar for the first time. Cobra Gold is the largest a recent Cobra Gold operation. The exercise of its kind in the Asia Pacific. Troops will engage in amphibious multilateral exercise, which brings together assault demonstrations, small-boat and helicopter raids, and other military personnel from the United States, exercises. Thailand, Japan, South Korea, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore, kicked off indonesia February 11. http://www.flickr.com/photos/ dvids/5454330300/ • Asia Pulp and Paper pledges end to deforestation in Indonesia. The world’s third-largest paper producer, Singapore-based Asia Pulp and Paper (APP), announced on February 1 that it and its suppliers will stop cutting Indonesian rainforests, use only plantation-grown trees, and hire groups to monitor implementation. The move is a victory for environmental groups like Greenpeace that have lobbied APP and other companies since 2011 to preserve biodiversity and reduce carbon emissions in Indonesia, the world’s third-largest carbon emitter due to deforestation.

• Yudhoyono takes over Democrat Party leadership amid corruption scandals. President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono assumed leadership of the Democrat Party on February 8 while party chairman Anas Urbaningrum is A rainforest in Indonesia used for being investigated by the Corruption Eradication Commission for allegedly paper production. Asia Pulp and accepting bribes related to the construction of the Hambalang Sports Paper’s decision to halt operations in Complex in West Java. The president’s son and Democrat Party secretary- Indonesian rainforests marks a victory general, Edhie Baskoro Yudhoyono, subsequently resigned from the House for environmental groups fighting to of Representatives on February 14, citing the need to focus on helping to slow Indonesia’s rapid deforestation. rebuild the party’s credibility ahead of the 2014 national elections. http://www.flickr.com/photos/ rainforestactionnetwork/5680744399/ • Investment in road infrastructure fails to keep pace with growth. Indonesia’s $7 billion annual spending on roads has failed to keep up with the country’s increasing economic growth, despite accounting for 40 percent of total infrastructure spending, according to a February 14 World Bank report. The World Bank says that Indonesia could meet its road building and maintenance needs in a decade by repealing its costly fuel subsidies and imposing a modest gasoline tax. Government spending on national roads increased threefold from 2005 to 2011, but led to only a 20 percent increase in roads built due to unusually high maintenance and development costs.

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• Foreign minister visits Japan to discuss strategic dialogue. Indonesian foreign minister Marty Natalegawa and his Japanese counterpart, Fumio Kishida, met in Tokyo for the fourth Japan-Indonesia Strategic Dialogue on the sidelines of the February 13–15 Conference on Cooperation among East Asian Countries for Palestinian Development. The meeting brought no significant deliverables but signaled increasing bilateral and regional cooperation between the two countries. It followed Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe’s January 18 visit to Indonesia.

• House considers taking over human rights body amid internal dispute. The House of Representatives threatened on February 12 to select new commissioners for Indonesia’s National Commission on Human Rights (Komnas HAM) unless it resolves an internal dispute over the length of the chairman’s term in office by mid-March. The House has proposed that the term be reduced from two-and-a-half years to one year. Four of 13 commissioners, including the chairman, opposed the proposal while 9 supported the move. Komnas HAM is considered Indonesia’s leading human rights watchdog, but the impasse has raised questions about its effectiveness.

philippines

• Japan to give Philippines 10 coast guard patrol boats. The Japanese coast guard will donate to the Philippines 10 patrol boats worth $11 million each, according to a February 11 report by the Japanese business daily Nikkei. The vessels will be used to prevent intrusions in waters claimed by the Philippines in the South China Sea. Some of the new boats are actually refurbished 40-year-old cutters bought from the U.S. Coast Guard. Tokyo plans to include the donation of the vessels in its 2013 budget. Manila expects to receive the boats in 18 months.

• Aquino makes historic visit to separatist base in Mindanao. President Benigno Aquino visited the base of the separatist Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) at Sultan Kadarat, Maguindanao Province, on February 11 to launch a social welfare program. The program aims to deliver basic goods and services that will help improve the health, education, and livelihood of 12,000 MILF and Moro communities. Aquino is the first Philippine president to visit the MILF camp on peaceful terms.

• Aquino signs measure to amend Anti-Money Laundering Act. President Benigno Aquino on February 15 signed the Act Strengthening the Anti- Money Laundering Law, which amends the Philippines’ existing Anti-Money Laundering Act. Under the new law, money changers, real estate dealers, and jewelry dealers are required to report suspicious transactions. By

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passing the law, the government hopes to keep the Philippines from being blacklisted by the international Financial Action Task Force (FATF), which imposes restrictions on the financial activities of countries whose laws are deemed insufficient to combat transnational financial crimes and the funding of illicit organizations.

• Congress passes landmark bill to protect rights of internally displaced persons. The Philippine Congress passed a bill on February 8 to protect the rights of internally displaced persons (IDPs) in the country. The law protects IDPs against arbitrary displacement and guarantees their rights in accordance with the UN Guiding Principles on Internal Displacement. The UN High Commissioner for Refugees hailed the law as a model for other countries. The Philippines is the first country in the Asia Pacific to adopt such comprehensive legislation protecting IDPs.

• Philippines receives record foreign investment in 2012. Trade Secretary Gregory Domingo said on February 13 that foreign investment in the Philippines in 2012 climbed to a new record of $400 million, about half of which came from Japan. Japanese companies like Canon Business Machines and Murata Manufacturing Company moved their operations Members of a local nongovernmental to the Philippines because of improving cost effectiveness. Domingo organization meet with internally said Japan is now the Philippines’ largest investment source and trading displaced persons (IDPs) in the partner. Philippines, which has become the first country in the Asia Pacific to pass a bill malaysia providing comprehensive protections for IDPs. http://www.flickr.com/photos/ • Three terror suspects arrested under Security Offences Act. Home nonviolentpeaceforce/6119847641/ Minister Hishammuddin Hussein announced February 7 that three Malaysians had been detained under the Security Offences (Special Measures) Act (SOSMA) for suspected involvement in terrorism and militancy. The government passed the controversial SOSMA in 2012 to replace Malaysia’s draconian Internal Security Act (ISA). It allows police to detain suspects for up to 28 days before bringing them to court. Yazid Sufaat and Halimah Hussein, both of whom had previously been detained under the ISA, were charged on February 8. The third suspect, Mohamad Hilmi Hasim, has not been charged but remains in detention.

• Malaysia imposes two-year moratorium on new private colleges. Malaysia’s Ministry of Higher Education imposed a two-year moratorium on new private higher-education institutions, beginning February 1, arguing that their number outstrips demand and is therefore unsustainable. The moratorium does not affect new institutions whose applications are currently being processed, existing universities that have applied for status upgrades, or branches of highly ranked foreign

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universities. Malaysia previously imposed a five-year moratorium on new medical courses in May 2011 for the same reason.

• Najib visits Penang for Chinese New Year. Prime Minister Najib Razak celebrated Chinese New Year on February 10 during a two-day visit to the opposition- held state of Penang. Najib spoke at an event sponsored by his ruling Barisan Nasional coalition, promising to improve Penang’s transport system, provide affordable housing, and upgrade the status of local Han Chiang College so it can confer its own degrees. South Korean rapper Psy also performed during the event. Penang is heavily Chinese and is considered the opposition’s main stronghold. Najib has visited the state twice in two months as the ruling coalition prepares for upcoming national elections.

Prime Minister Najib Razak, accompanied • Australian senator deported from Malaysia. Australian independent by his wife Rosmah Mansor, former senator Nick Xenophon was detained at and deported from the Kuala prime minister Abdullah Badawi, and Lumpur airport on February 16 for being a security risk. Xenophon, an other Barisan Nasional politicians, celebrated Chinese New Year in Penang. outspoken critic of Malaysia’s human rights record, was scheduled to The ruling coalition is eager to recapture meet with opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim, a senior government minister, the opposition stronghold in upcoming the Election Commission, and electoral reform group Bersih to discuss elections. http://www.flickr.com/photos/ electoral reforms ahead of elections expected in March or April. Ruling nicholas-chan/8464762063/ coalition politicians accused Xenophon of interfering in Malaysia’s domestic politics and defended the government’s decision to deport him.

• Refugee deal with Australia in limbo over human rights issues. Progress on a deal to swap refugees between Australia and Malaysia remains stalled over the latter’s refusal to strengthen human rights protections for asylum seekers, according to a February 11 Australian report. The two countries agreed in July 2011 to exchange 4,000 processed refugees from Malaysia for 800 unprocessed asylum seekers from Australia, but Australia’s High Court ruled the agreement unconstitutional due to unaddressed human rights concerns.

vietnam

• U.S.-trained human rights lawyer freed from jail. Vietnam’s Foreign Ministry on February 7 announced the early release of U.S.-trained human rights lawyer Le Cong Dinh from jail. Dinh was arrested in 2009 and sentenced to five years in prison on charges of conspiring to overthrow

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the government. He served three and a half years of his five-year sentence. Officials claim that Dinh was freed for his good behavior, according to online newspaper VnExpress.

• Government to unveil plans to overhaul 52 state-owned enterprises. Deputy Finance Minister Truong Chi Trung said in an interview on January 5 that the government plans to unveil an economic road map by June for overhauling 52 state-owned enterprises (SOEs). He said the proposed plans include selling all nonessential units from SOEs by the end of 2015, reducing them to between 50 and 75 percent of their current size. Vietnam’s SOEs currently account for about 53 percent of the banking system’s bad debt, according to the Finance Ministry.

• Ailing banking system seeks foreign investment. The Vietnamese government is looking to foreign investors to take 49 percent ownership of state-owned banks in order to fix the poorly performing banking system, according to a February 13 report by the Wall Street Journal. Ivan Tan, a director at Standard & Poor’s, says that selling stakes in state-owned companies will attract the necessary foreign capital and expertise that Vietnamese banks need. Foreign investors are currently allowed to own 20 percent of a Vietnamese bank as an individual or 30 percent with a partner. singapore

• Singapore police pledge to aid Interpol in soccer match-fixing investigations. Singapore’s police force said February 8 that it is working with Interpol and sending officers to Europe to investigate an VietinBank, a state-owned bank and international soccer match-fixing scandal operating out of the city-state. currently one of the largest companies Singapore has come under embarrassing scrutiny since news of the match- in Vietnam. The Vietnamese government fixing ring broke on February 4. Singapore legalized gambling on local plans to overhaul 52 of its state-owned matches in 1999 and on international matches played locally in 2002. enterprises by June. http://www.flickr.com/ photos/travel_aficionado/5189033825/

• China names ICBC the sole renminbi clearing bank in Singapore. The People’s Bank of China approved the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) Singapore branch as the only institution in the city-state permitted to clear renminbi-denominated transactions, according to a February 8 Bloomberg report. The move took place the same week that an offshore renminbi market began operating in Taipei, marking a new stage in China’s attempts to internationalize its currency. Singapore will now become the world’s third offshore renminbi center.

• Parliament passes White Paper on Population despite backlash. Singapore’s Parliament passed a controversial White Paper on Population

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on February 8 by a decisive vote of 77 to 13, despite significant backlash from citizens. Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong promised during a live broadcast before the vote to control the influx of foreigners into Singapore and said that he expects the city-state’s 2030 population to remain below the 6.9 million cited in the White Paper. A crowd of 3,000–4,000, remarkably large by Singaporean standards, gathered on February 16 to protest the government’s population policies.

• Changi Airport announces plans for Terminal 4 construction. Changi Airport Group announced February 1 that it will begin construction of a new terminal in 2013, to The Singaporean Parliament building. be completed in 2017. The approximately $1 billion project Parliament passed a highly debated White is designed for quick flight turnaround. It aims to meet the operational Paper on Population on February 8 in a needs of both regional full service and low-cost carriers and to provide decisive 77-to-13 vote. http://www.flickr. capacity for 16 million passengers annually. Terminal 4 will be comparable com/photos/jorgecancela/7970409898/ to Changi Airport’s Terminals 1 and 2 and will have aerobridges, unlike the Budget Terminal.

cambodia

• Khmer Rouge tribunal overturns decision to separate trials. The Supreme Court Chamber of the Extraordinary Chambers in the Courts of Cambodia (ECCC) on February 8 overturned a decision by a lower court to separate charges against former Khmer Rouge leaders Nuon Chea, Ieng Sary, and Khieu Samphan. The lower Trial Chamber had decided in 2011 to hear the numerous charges discretely in a series of mini-trials. Given the defendants’ advanced age and poor health, the prosecution and trial observers worried that the decision to separate the charges meant the tribunal would never prosecute the more egregious charges. The recent Supreme Court decision requires the defendants to face all charges Former Khmer Rouge leaders Nuon simultaneously. Chea and Ieng Sary at a 2011 hearing. A lower court’s decision to divide the • Government and bar association issue regulations on lawyer-media charges against Nuon Chea, Ieng Sary, relations. Cambodia’s Ministry of Information and the Cambodian and Khieu Samphan was recently Bar Association announced new regulations on February 8 limiting overturned. http://www.flickr.com/photos/ the interaction of lawyers and the media. Information Minister Khieu krtribunal/6099360598/sizes/m/in/ Kanharith released orders instructing media personnel to seek approval photostream/ from the bar association before speaking with lawyers. The bar association issued a letter to lawyers at the same time, warning them against speaking to press outlets without obtaining prior consent. The Cambodia Center for Human Rights and others sharply criticized the regulations.

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• Charges dropped against prominent rights investigator. The Cambodian government on February 8 dropped secessionist charges against Chan Soveth, an investigator with the Cambodian Human Rights and Development Association, better known as ADHOC. Authorities had charged Chan Soveth on August 7 with intent to foment secession after he provided shelter and money to Ma Chhang, who was accused of leading an uprising in a village in Kratie Province. Tensions remain high in the village, where security forces killed a 14-year-old girl during a crackdown on an eviction protest in May 2012. south china sea

• China rejects Philippine motion for UN arbitration in South China Sea dispute. Chinese ambassador to the Philippines Ma Keqing on February 19 submitted a note to the Philippine Department of Foreign Affairs (DFA) saying that China rejects Manila’s motion for UN arbitration of some aspects of the South China Sea disputes. Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Hong Lei argued that the Philippines’ decision to seek arbitration violates the 2002 Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea, and that China is committed to negotiating the disputes bilaterally. The Philippine DFA issued a statement dismissing China’s objections and saying arbitration will move forward “with or without China.”

• EIA releases report on potential resources in South China Sea. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) released a report on February 7 estimating that the South China Sea holds about 11 billion barrels of oil resources and 190 trillion cubic feet of natural gas. The report also includes a study conducted by the Chinese National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) in November 2012 that estimates the South China Sea’s hydrocarbon resources at about 125 billion barrels of oil and 500 trillion cubic feet of natural gas. The EIA has not conducted studies to independently assess CNOOC’s estimates.

• John Kerry voices support for Philippines’ push to take China to UN tribunal. Newly confirmed U.S. secretary of state John Kerry expressed support for Manila’s decision to take Beijing’s extensive South China Sea claims to a UN arbitration tribunal during a February 15 call with Philippine foreign minister Albert del Rosario. The two agreed to strengthen defense and security ties between Washington and Manila, including by enhancing joint military exercises and helping build the Philippines’ defense capacity. The U.S. government officially takes no side in the overlapping claims in the South China Sea, but it has insisted that the disputes be resolved according to international law.

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laos

• Activist freed after three months of detention. The Lao government released land activist Sivanxay Phommarat from prison on February 3 after she paid an $88 fine and promised that she and her husband would refrain from taking part in any more “unlawful” actions. Phommarat was detained in October 2012 for leading a group of villagers in seeking better compensation for land that was confiscated for road expansion. Lao authorities gave no public explanation for her sudden release.

• European Parliament urges Laos to address concerns about Sombath disappearance. The European Parliament passed a multipoint resolution on February 7 expressing deep concern about the disappearance of Lao agronomist Sombath Somphone. The parliament called on the Lao government to cooperate in investigating his disappearance and to respect human rights and international law. Sombath, a U.S.-educated agronomist and winner of the prestigious Ramon Magsaysay Award for Community Leadership, has been missing since the evening of December 15.

The Lao government’s continued silence on timor-leste Sombath Somphone’s disappearance has brought protests from human rights groups • Timor Telecom worries about new competitor Telin. The competitive worldwide. http://www.flickr.com/photos/ advantage enjoyed by PT Telekomunikasi Indonesia International prachatai/8306943360/ (Telin) is preventing it from reaching agreement with local firm Timor Telecoms, according to a February 8 Telecompaper report. Timor Telecom is demanding that Telin guarantee it equal bandwidth, fair pricing, and access to land connectivity. Timor Telecom is also preparing to sign an interconnection agreement with Vietnam’s Viettel. Timor-Leste ended Timor Telecom’s monopoly in May 2012 and awarded licenses to Telin and Viettel two months later, making them the first foreign telecommunications firms to operate in the country.

• Timor-Leste and Thailand to cooperate in oil sector. Timor-Leste and Thailand signed an agreement on February 1 to boost cooperation in exploration and development of Timor-Leste’s oil resources. The cooperation is expected to focus on Timor-Leste’s Tasi Mane project along the country’s southern coast. The agreement includes information sharing on oil policy, oil-related institutions, business opportunities, and legal preparations, as well as specialized training for professionals. It follows a 2009 agreement to create a Timorese energy plan and perform studies of the oil sector.

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• Timor-Leste establishes “No Take Zones” to boost local fisheries. Secretary of State for Fisheries Rafael Periera Goncalves on February 7 announced the establishment of Timor-Leste’s first “No Take Zones” to allow the replenishment of fish stocks and the protection of coral reefs, which are essential for the country’s food security and economic development. The announcement follows an August 2012 marine survey that found coral reefs in Timor-Leste among the healthiest and most diverse in the world. Conservation International carried out the survey using USAID’s Coral Triangle Support Partnership award. brunei

• PACOM commander visits Brunei to reinforce maritime cooperation. U.S. Pacific Commander Admiral Samuel Locklear met with Bruneian leaders, including Defense Minister Sultan Hassanal Bolkiah, on February 7–10 to discuss regional transnational security challenges ahead of humanitarian assistance and disaster relief exercises sponsored by Brunei. Locklear extended U.S. support for the exercises, which will be held as part of the ASEAN Defense Ministers’ Meeting Plus on June 16–20, by offering a logistics ship, medical teams, and planners. Brunei assumed the chairmanship of ASEAN in January. A fisherman in Maubara, Timor-Leste. Timor-Leste announced its first “No Take mekong river Zones” on February 7 in an effort to protect the country’s fisheries and coral • Laos signs land lease to develop Xe-Pian Xe-Namnoy dam. Laos’s deputy reefs. http://www.flickr.com/photos/ minister of natural resources and the environment Akhom Tounalom yeowatzup/312827826/ signed a 32-year land lease contract on February 1 for the Thai-funded Xe-Pian Xe-Namnoy hydroelectric project. Construction on the dam will begin in July, and commercial operations are expected to start in February 2019. Ninety percent of the electricity generated by the project will be sold to Thailand. Laos also signed an agreement on the same day with Russia’s Regional Oil to develop three hydropower dams along Mekong River tributaries, with construction to begin in 2014. ■

The Xe-Pian River in Laos. Laos on February 1 signed a 32-year land lease agreement for the development of the Xe-Pian Xe-Namnoy dam. http://www.flickr.com/photos/ internationalrivers/8385020629/

1800 k street nw, washington dc 20006 | t. 202.775.3211 | f. 202.775.3199 | www.csis.org Looking Ahead

• Discussion on China’s rise and future prospects. The CSIS Freeman Chair in China Studies and Japan Chair will host a discussion February 25 with CSIS senior associate Edward Luttwak on his new book, The Rise of China vs. the Logic of Strategy. Luttwak will discuss the application of the logic of strategy to China’s rise and why it suggests the country might be headed for a fall. The event will take place from 10:30 a.m. to 12:00 p.m. in the B1 Conference Center at CSIS, 1800 K St., NW. Please RSVP to the CSIS Asia Programs.

• Conference on the U.S. rebalance to Asia. CSIS, the United States Studies Centre, and the Asian Studies Program and the Center for Security Studies at Georgetown University will host a conference February 27 assessing the progress and future of the U.S. rebalance to Asia one year after the release of the U.S. Defense Strategic Guidance. The conference will bring together scholars and practitioners, including CSIS’s David Berteau, Michael Green, and Victor Cha, to analyze the rebalance and provide insights on its trajectory. The event will take place from 8:00 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. in the Lohrfink Auditorium of the Rafik B. Hariri Building at Georgetown University, 37th and O Sts., NW. Please click here to RSVP.

• Roundtable on Thai border police. George Washington University’s Institute for European, Russian, and Eurasian Studies and the Sigur Center for Asian Studies will host a roundtable discussion February 28 on the role of the Border Patrol Police in Thailand’s post-colonial nation-building process. Sinae Hyun, Ph.D. candidate at the University of Wisconsin— Madison, will present her research on the subject. The event will take place from 4:00 p.m. to 5:00 p.m. in the Voesar Conference Room, Suite 412, at the Elliot School of International Affairs, 1957 E St., NW. Please click here to RSVP.

• Discussion on gender equality in the Asia Pacific. George Washington University’s Partnerships for International Strategies in Asia will host a discussion March 1 on challenges to gender equality in the Asia Pacific and how the Asian Development Bank (ADB) is supporting advancement of gender equality in the region. ADB senior adviser Shireen Lateef will present the bank’s strategies in addressing gender gaps and discuss specific examples of projects promoting women’s empowerment. The event will take place from 12:00 p.m. to 2:00 p.m. in Room 602 of the Lindner Commons at George Washington University, 1957 E St., NW. Please click here to RSVP.

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• Trans-Pacific Partnership negotiations to be held in Singapore. The 16th round of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade negotiations will be held March 4–13 in Singapore. The last TPP negotiating round was held in Auckland in early December, with Mexico and Canada joining for the first time. The upcoming round could prove crucial for the success of the negotiations because the United States is expected to table a revised proposal on the contentious subject of pharmaceutical patents.

• Lecture on ASEAN and infrastructure connectivity in Asia. American University’s School of International Service will host a talk March 6 by the Asian Development Bank’s Doug Brooks on the role ASEAN can play in supporting infrastructure and development in Asia. The event will take place from 12:00 p.m. to 2:00 p.m. in the Gianni Lounge, Mary Graydon Center 200 at American University, 4400 Massachusetts Ave., NW. Please click here to RSVP.

• Film screening on the Khmer Rouge. The Human Rights Watch Film Festival and DC Asian Pacific American Film, Inc. will screen Brother Number One, a documentary about the reign of the Khmer Rouge and the present day trial of high-ranking Khmer Rouge officials. In the documentary, filmmaker Rob Hamill explores the death of his brother during the Khmer Rouge regime and his own experience testifying before the Extraordinary Chambers in the Courts of Cambodia. The screening will take place March 6 at 7:00 p.m. at the West End Cinema, 2301 M St., NW. Ticket information is available here.

• Film screenings on the Mekong River. The Goethe-Institut will present a screening of two films on March 22 exploring the livelihoods supported by, and economic importance of, the Mekong River. The event will showcase Mekong, the Mother, directed by Peter Degen, and Mekong, directed by Douglas Varchol, who will provide an introduction of his film. The event will take place at 5:30 p.m. at the Goethe-Institut Washington, 812 Seventh St., NW. Please click here for more information and to purchase tickets. ■

1800 k street nw, washington dc 20006 | t. 202.775.3211 | f. 202.775.3199 | www.csis.org southeast asia from the corner of 18th & k streets CSIS Sumitro Chair for Southeast Asia Studies contributors: Ernest Bower, Senior Adviser and Chair Murray Hiebert, Senior Fellow and Deputy Director Gregory Poling, Research Associate Kathleen Rustici, Research Associate Elke Larsen, Research Assistant Jennifer Frentasia, Researcher Phoebe De Padua, Researcher Amy Killian, Researcher Jeremiah Magpile, Researcher

For more details on our programs and to follow CSIS with real-time updates, follow the CSIS Chair for Southeast Asia Studies: On Facebook at http://www.facebook.com/CSISSoutheastAsia On Twitter at @SoutheastAsiaDC. On our blog, cogitASIA at http://cogitASIA.com Thank you for your interest in U.S. policy in Southeast Asia and the CSIS Sumitro Chair for Southeast Asia Studies. Join the conversation!

This newsletter is published by the Sumitro Chair for Southeast Asia Studies at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington, D.C., a private, tax-exempt institution focusing on international public policy issues. CSIS’s research is nonpartisan and nonproprietary. CSIS does not take specific policy positions; accordingly, all views, positions, and conclusions expressed in this publica- tion should be understood to be solely those of the author(s).