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China Wind Power Sector China / Hong Kong Industry Focus China Wind Power Sector Refer to important disclosures at the end of this report DBS Group Research . Equity 20 Feb 2017 Rewind or unwind? HSI : 24,146 Expect national utilisation hours to recover, driven by improvements in Inner Mongolia and Xinjiang ANALYST Fine-tuned capacity installation forecasts in 2017- Addison Dai +852 2971 1931 20 [email protected] Renewable energy green certificate is near-term neutral but long-term positive Top picks: Longyuan Power (916.HK) and Xinjiang Goldwind (2208.HK); maintain non-consensus Recommendation & valuation HOLD recommendation on Huaneng Renewables Target Market (958.HK) Company Price Price Rec Ca p FY17F P E Utilisation hours to improve in 2017-20. This will be aided by: i) HK $ HK$ US $m x the government’s more proactive support of ‘guaranteed purchase utilisation hours’ policy, ii) commencement of CH Longyuan (916 6.81 8.39 BUY 7,051 11.8 operations of UHV transmission lines, iii) rationalisation of new HK) capacity installation, and iv) peak-shaving potential of coal- Goldwind 'H' 12.90 15.13 BUY 6,441 8.7 fired plants. We project China’s wind power utilisation to (2208 H K) gradually recover to 1,909 hours in 2020 from a low of 1,742 Huaneng hours in 2016, based on assumptions that China’s total power Renewables 2.76 2.85 HOLD 3,459 8.5 generation will grow at 2.4% CAGR during 2017-20, and wind (958 HK) power to account for 6.4% of total power output in 2020 Source: Thomson Reuters, DBS Vickers, Bloomberg Finance L.P. (versus 4.1% in 2016). Renewable energy green certificates (REC): near-term neutral, long-term positive. China announced the introduction of REC in Feb-2017, which is aimed at alleviating rising pressure from renewable energy subsidies and high curtailment. Under the REC, each certificate represents 1MWh of power output, and the renewable energy IPPs and conventional IPPs will be able to trade the certificates. RECs should be implemented based on the enforcement of Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) and a comprehensive power exchange market, which are expected to materialise two to three years from now. Wind power will be the key beneficiary as its marginal electricity generation cost is the lowest compared to other renewables. Fine-tuned capacity installation projections in 2017-20. We are projecting wind capacity installation of 22-24GW in 2017-2020 versus 26GW per annum previously. China targets to lift utilisation of existing capacities as the top agenda during the 13th five-year plan rather than adding more capacity. Top picks: LYP and Goldwind. We raised Longyuan Power (LYP)’s TP to HK$8.11 as we rolled over our valuation base to 2017. We see LYP as a key beneficiary of recovery in utilisation in high curtailed regions. We continue to like Goldwind premised on its earnings recovery in FY17 and further market share gains of its DDPM WTG sales in China. ASIAN INSIGHTS VICKERS SECURITIES ed-TH JS/ sa- DL Industry Focus China Wind Power Sector Wind power capacity installation is shifting towards non- consumption by year 2020. In 2020, China targets a wind curtailed regions power generation of 420 TWh, to make up for 6% of the country’s total power generation. This is anchored by the According to the National Energy Administration (NEA), country’s expected total power generation of 7,000 TWh, China’s grid-connected wind power capacity was 148.6GW in representing a 4.6% CAGR during 2016-2020. 2016, representing a y-o-y growth of 14.9%. The growth was moderated from 34% in 2015 versus 26% in 2014 due to a We actually project China’s total power generation to grow at rush installation with regard to tariff cut effective on 1 January a 2.4% CAGR during 2017-2020 to 6,424 TWh in 2020 and 2016. wind power to account for 6.4% of total power generation. Our FY20F wind power generation is 414 TWh, representing a In 2016, China’s newly installed wind power capacity was 14.5% CAGR, driven by capacity addition and recovery in shifting towards Tier IV resource zones, as expected. We utilisation hours as well (see ‘China wind power sector: Wind calculate, in 2016, newly connected wind capacity in Tier IV power generation and utilisation in 2010-2020F’ chart for our zones accounted for up to 65% of the country’s total versus a forecast details). 34% contribution in 2015. During 2016, grid-connected capacity in non-curtailed regions (incl. Hebei, Shanxi, Shandong, According to China Electricity Council (CEC), China’s utilisation Jiangsu, Yunnan) expanded 23% y-o-y while the connected of wind power industry in 2016 was 1,742 hours, which capacity in curtailed regions (incl. Inner Mongolia, Liaoning, improved from 1,728 hours in 2015 due to mild recovery in Gansu, Ningxia, Xinjiang) grew 11% y-o-y. wind speed. Projection of utilisation hours in 2017-2020 In 2017-2020, we expect utilisation of wind power to recover gradually on improvement in power digestion through: i) In 2016, power generation of wind power was 241 TWh in commencement in operations of UHV transmission lines, ii) China, accounting for 4.1% of total power generation. The rationalised new capacity installation, and iii) likely more proportion increased from FY15’s 3.3% versus FY10’s 1.1%. engagement of peak-shaving of coal-fired power. We project Wind power is currently China's third largest contributor in China wind power utilisation to gradually increase to 1,909 terms of power output, next to coal-fired and hydro utilities. hours in 2020 from 1,742 hours in 2016 (see ‘China wind power sector: Wind power generation and utilisation in 2010- In March 2016, the NEA announced to set the target for non- 2020F’ chart for our forecast details). hydro power sources to account for 9% of total electricity China wind power sector: Wind power generation and utilisation in 2010-2020F 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017F 2018F 2019F 2020F Total power generation (TWh) 4,127 4,577 4,771 5,169 5,432 5,565 5,843 5,983 6,127 6,274 6,424 y-o-y% 10.9% 4.2% 8.3% 5.1% 2.4% 5.0% 2.4% 2.4% 2.4% 2.4% Wind power generation (TWh) 50 72 100 140 156 185 241 281 324 368 414 Wind power generation % total 1.2% 1.6% 2.1% 2.7% 2.9% 3.3% 4.1% 4.7% 5.3% 5.9% 6.4% power generation China wind power grid-connected 31 47 62 77 96 129 149 170 189 208 227 capacity at EOY (GW) China wind power grid- 24 39 55 70 87 113 139 159 180 199 218 connected weighted average capacity (GW) Reported utilisation (hrs) 2,047 1,929 1,890 2,074 1,893 1,728 1,742 1,775 1,810 1,857 1,909 Utilisation (hrs) y-o-y (%) -5.8% -2.0% 9.7% -8.7% -8.7% 0.8% 1.9% 2.0% 2.6% 2.8% Source: Wind, CEIC, China Electricity Council, DBS Vickers Page 2 Industry Focus China Wind Power Sector Gansu’s challenge is expected to be maintained. Gansu Outlook of high grid-curtailment regions accounted for 5.6% and 8.6% of China’s wind power Inner Mongolia has potential to improve. Inner Mongolia generation and grid-connected wind capacity respectively, accounted for 19% and 17% of the country’s wind power based on 2016 statistics. In 2016, grid-curtailment of the generation and grid-connected wind capacity respectively, province remained high at 43%, following 47% in 1H16, based on 2016 statistics. In 2016, grid-curtailment of the versus 39% in 2015. Gansu has been consistently in the province improved to 21%, following the worsening of bottom-three rankings since 2014 due to poor grid curtailment to 30% in 1H16, versus 18% in 2015. This was infrastructure and weak provincial power demand. In 2016, primarily helped by solid wind power performance in East Inner power generation in Gansu declined 1% y-o-y, as a result of: i) Mongolia. Descend of power exports to neighbouring provinces. According to our estimates, total power exports to Xinjiang, We expect high curtailment in Inner Mongolia to have Shaanxi and Ningxia account for around 10-15% of the potential room to alleviate in the next three years due to province’s power generation. ii) Commodity output curtailment operation ramp-up of UHV lines. In December 2016, Inner from supply glut industry such as steel and aluminium sectors. Mongolia West (IM West) - Tianjin UHV line commenced In 2016, Gansu’s steel and aluminium production fell by 26% operation, following Ximeng (IM East) - Shandong UHV line and 1% respectively. started operation in July 2016. For Inner Mongolia, especially IM West, power exports is not a new practice. According to In addition, Gansu does not own UHV lines at the moment. Its our channel checks, in 2016, the power exports to Beijing- first UHV line connecting Jiuquan and Hunan is expected to Tianjin-Hebei (North China) are estimated to account for start operation in 2H17 at the earliest. As such, we hold a around 18% of IM West’s power sales. Taking consideration prudent view towards a potential improvement in utilisation in that UHV lines normally have one-year trial operation period the province. and another two-to-three year of utilisation ramp-up, we Xinjiang is improving aided by government’s support. expect the power generation absorption of the two UHV lines could be materialised from 2017 onwards.
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