Experiment Workshop Report 23Feb2009
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Michael Maccracken, IUGG Fellow
Michael MacCracken, USA IUGG Fellow Dr. Michael MacCracken is Chief Scientist for Climate Change Programs with the Climate Institute in Washington DC. After graduating from Princeton University with a B.S. in Engineering in 1964 and from the University of California with a Ph.D. in Applied Science in 1968, he joined the University of California’s Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) as an atmospheric physicist. Building on his Ph.D. research, which involved constructing one of the world’s first global climate models and using it to evaluate suggested hypotheses of the causes of Pleistocene glacial cycling, his LLNL research focused on seeking to quantify the climatic effects of various natural and human-affected factors, including the rising concentrations of greenhouse gases, injections of volcanic aerosols, albedo changes due to land- cover change, and possible dust and smoke injection in the event of a global nuclear war. In addition, he led construction of the first regional air pollution model for the San Francisco Bay Area in the early 1970s and an early inter-laboratory program researching sulfate pollution and acid precipitation in the northeastern United States in the mid 1970s. From 1993-2002, Dr. MacCracken was on assignment from LLNL as senior global change scientist for the interagency Office of the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) in Washington DC. He served as the Office’s first executive director from 1993-97 and then as the first executive director of USGCRP’s coordination office for the first national assessment of the potential consequences of climate variability and change from 1997-2001. -
December 16, 1995
Michael C. MacCracken January 6, 2016 Present Positions and Affiliations Chief Scientist for Climate Change Programs (2003- ), and member, Board of Directors (2006- ), Climate Institute, Washington DC Member (2003- ), Advisory Committee, Environmental and Energy Study Institute, Washington DC Member (2008- ), US National Committee for the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics of the National Academy of Sciences (liaison to IAMAS) Member (2010- ), Advisory Board, Climate Communication Shop Member (2010- ), Advisory Board, Climate Science Communication Network Member (2012- ), Union Commission on Climatic and Environmental Change (CCEC) of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics (IUGG) Member (2013- ), Advisory Council, National Center for Science Education, Oakland CA. Member (2013- ), Board of Advisors of Climate Accountability Institute (climateaccountability.org). Member (2014- ), American Meteorological Society Committee on Effective Communication of Weather and Climate Information (CECWCI) Member (2014- ), ASQ (American Standards for Quality) Technical Advisory Group ISO/TC 207 (TAG 207) on Environmental Management and the ASC Z1 Subcommittee on Environmental Management Previous Positions (selected) Atmospheric scientist (1968-2002) and Division Leader for Atmospheric and Geophysical Sciences (1987- 1993), Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore CA Senior Scientist for global change (1993-2002), Office of the US Global Change Research Program, on detail from LLNL with assignments serving as the first executive -
Text for the Remainder 5 of the Report
Second-Order Draft Chapter 1 IPCC WG1 Fourth Assessment Report 1 Chapter 1: Historical Overview of Climate Change Science 2 3 Coordinating Lead Authors: Hervé Le Treut, Richard Somerville 4 5 Lead Authors: Ulrich Cubasch, Yihui Ding, Cecilie Mauritzen, Abdalah Mokssit, Thomas Peterson, 6 Michael Prather 7 8 Contributing Authors: Myles Allen, Ingeborg Auer, Mariano Barriendo, Joachim Biercamp, Curt Covey, 9 James Fleming, Joanna Haigh, Gabriele Hegerl, Ricardo García-Herrera, Peter Gleckler, Ketil Isaksen, Julie 10 Jones, Jürg Luterbacher, Michael MacCracken, Joyce Penner, Christian Pfister, Erich Roeckner, Benjamin 11 Santer, Fritz Schott, Frank Sirocko, Andrew Staniforth, Thomas Stocker, Ronald Stouffer, Karl Taylor, 12 Kevin Trenberth, Antje Weisheimer, Martin Widmann, Carl Wunsch 13 14 Review Editors: Alphonsus Baede, David Griggs, Maria Martelo 15 16 Date of Draft: 3 March 2006 17 18 Notes: TSU compiled version 19 20 21 Table of Contents 22 23 Executive Summary............................................................................................................................................................2 24 1.1 Overview of the Chapter............................................................................................................................................3 25 1.2 The Nature of Earth Science ......................................................................................................................................3 26 1.3 Examples of Progress in Detecting and Attributing Recent Climate Change ............................................................5 -
Viability: a Priority Criterion for the Mitigation of Climate Change and Other Complex Socio-Ecological Issues
ARTICLE .77 Viability: A Priority Criterion for the Mitigation of Climate Change and other Complex Socio-Ecological Issues Graeme Taylor Griffith University Australia At present many researchers are exploring ways to improve the resilience of the global system, prevent catastrophic failure, and support the transition to a sustainable global system. This paper makes two interlinked proposals for developing better—and more credible—tools for modeling critical global issues and identifying and managing threats. First, proven risk management methods from other fields can be usefully applied to the assessment and mitigation of large, complex socio- ecological problems. Second, using viability as the priority criterion for the design of our models will not only highlight systemic threats, but also help us develop constructive interventions. socio-ecological, risk management, viability, modeling, non-linear, systems, safety, critical, causal diagrams, Bayesian networks The need for new models and methods Critical global problems like climate change, growing shortages of essential resources (such as water, food, energy and critical minerals) and the loss of biodiversity are getting worse. Many experts (Bierbaum et al., 2007) believe that humanity’s greatest challenge is to find ways to keep these problems from becoming catastrophic. Attention is increasingly focusing on risk assessment and management. Christopher Field, co-chair of the 2014 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report on the impacts of rising temperatures, states: “The IPCC has transitioned to what I consider to be a full and rich recognition that the climate change problem is about managing risk” (Reuters, 2013). Awareness is growing also that better methods are needed to assess global risks and ensuring desirable outcomes. -
Christopher Field Wins the BBVA Foundation Frontiers of Knowledge Award for Revealing the Utility of Ecosystem Management As a Weapon Against Climate Change
The Climate Change category leads off the sixth edition of the awards Christopher Field wins the BBVA Foundation Frontiers of Knowledge Award for revealing the utility of ecosystem management as a weapon against climate change Field, a biologist, co-chairs Working Group 2 of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change dealing with impacts, adaptation and vulnerability His insights have facilitated the design of effective strategies for managing agricultural fields, forests and other terrestrial ecosystems in the face of future climate change Field has hailed the award as a recognition for the whole community of climate scientists and the science of climate change Madrid, January 9, 2014.- The BBVA Foundation Frontiers of Knowledge Award in the Climate Change category has gone in this sixth edition to U.S. biologist Christopher Field, Director of the Department of Global Ecology at the Carnegie Institution for Science and a professor at Stanford University (United States), for discovering the importance of ecosystems and their effective management in the battle against climate change. Field’s work has allowed to quantify the global climate impact of deforestation, agriculture and other changes in vegetation cover. And vice versa. It has helped predict how climate change will impact on land ecosystems. CO2 exchange between ecosystems and the atmosphere is a full twenty times greater than human-induced emissions. Field’s insights have brought this evidence to light by quantifying how ecosystems influence the amount of carbon circulating in the atmosphere. Not only that, they have shown that terrestrial vegetation plays a part in global climate control by modifying water evaporation and the solar radiation absorbed by the planet. -
05-1120 Massachusetts V. EPA (4/2/07)
(Slip Opinion) OCTOBER TERM, 2006 1 Syllabus NOTE: Where it is feasible, a syllabus (headnote) will be released, as is being done in connection with this case, at the time the opinion is issued. The syllabus constitutes no part of the opinion of the Court but has been prepared by the Reporter of Decisions for the convenience of the reader. See United States v. Detroit Timber & Lumber Co., 200 U. S. 321, 337. SUPREME COURT OF THE UNITED STATES Syllabus MASSACHUSETTS ET AL. v. ENVIRONMENTAL PRO - TECTION AGENCY ET AL. CERTIORARI TO THE UNITED STATES COURT OF APPEALS FOR THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA CIRCUIT No. 05–1120. Argued November 29, 2006—Decided April 2, 2007 Based on respected scientific opinion that a well-documented rise in global temperatures and attendant climatological and environmental changes have resulted from a significant increase in the atmospheric concentration of “greenhouse gases,” a group of private organizations petitioned the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to begin regu- lating the emissions of four such gases, including carbon dioxide, un- der §202(a)(1) of the Clean Air Act, which requires that the EPA “shall by regulation prescribe . standards applicable to the emis- sion of any air pollutant from any class . of new motor vehicles . which in [the EPA Administrator’s] judgment cause[s], or contrib- ute[s] to, air pollution . reasonably . anticipated to endanger public health or welfare,” 42 U. S. C. §7521(a)(1). The Act defines “air pollutant” to include “any air pollution agent . , including any physical, chemical . substance . emitted into . the ambient air.” §7602(g). -
Urbanization and Air Pollution
VOL. 96 NO. 1 15 JAN 2015 MagazineInaugural Issue Earth & Space Science News Then and Now Urbanization and Air Pollution Radioisotopic Geochronology and Astrochronology U.S. Interior Department Issues Revised Scientifi c Integrity Policy AGU Medalists Registration and Housing opening soon! Student Travel Grant Application Deadline: 26 January 2015 Earth & Space Science News Contents 15 JANUARY 2015 NEWS VOLUME 96, ISSUE 1 Satellites Show True Extent 3 of California Drought Since 2011, California’s water supply has lost 4 trillion gallons per year and the Sierra Nevada snowpack has hit record lows. MEETING REPORT 8 Climate, Land Use, and Conflict in Northern Africa How strong is the link between climate change and changes in land use in this vulnerable region? RESEARCH SPOTLIGHT 10 COVER 25 Urbanization and Air Pollution: Hillslopes Regulate Sediment Then and Now Supply to River Channels A new study rethinks the dynamics of Analysis of decades of mitigation efforts in Los Angeles demonstrates runoff-driven erosion in response to that air quality in the world’s megacities can be greatly improved. rainstorms. Earth & Space Science News Eos.org // 1 Contents DEPARTMENTS Editor in Chief Barbara T. Richman: AGU, Washington, D. C., USA; eos_ [email protected] Editors Christina M. S. Cohen: Wendy S. Gordon: Carol A. Stein: California Institute Ecologia Consulting, Department of Earth and of Technology, Pasadena, Austin, Texas, USA; Environmental Sciences, Calif., USA; wendy@ecologiaconsulting University of Illinois at cohen@srl .caltech.edu .com Chicago, Chicago, Ill., USA; [email protected] José D. Fuentes: David Halpern: Department of Meteorology, Jet Propulsion Laboratory, Pennsylvania State Pasadena, Calif., USA; University, University davidhalpern29@gmail Park, Pa., USA; .com [email protected] Editorial Advisory Board M. -
Prospects for Future Climate Change and the Reasons for Early Action
2008 CRITICAL REVIEW ISSN:1047-3289 J. Air & Waste Manage. Assoc. 58:735–786 DOI:10.3155/1047-3289.58.6.735 Copyright 2008 Air & Waste Management Association Prospects for Future Climate Change and the Reasons for Early Action Michael C. MacCracken Climate Institute, Washington, DC ABSTRACT composition and surface cover and indirectly controlling Combustion of coal, oil, and natural gas, and to a lesser the climate and sea level. As Nobelist Paul Crutzen has extent deforestation, land-cover change, and emissions of suggested, we have shifted the geological era from the halocarbons and other greenhouse gases, are rapidly increas- relative constancy of the Holocene (i.e., the last 10,000 yr) ing the atmospheric concentrations of climate-warming to the changing conditions of the new Anthropocene, the gases. The warming of approximately 0.1–0.2 °C per decade era of human dominance of the Earth system.2,3 that has resulted is very likely the primary cause of the That human activities are having a global-scale influ- increasing loss of snow cover and Arctic sea ice, of more ence is most evident in satellite views of the nighttime frequent occurrence of very heavy precipitation, of rising sea Earth. Excess light now illuminates virtually all of the devel- level, and of shifts in the natural ranges of plants and ani- oped areas of the planet, locating the cities, industrial areas, mals. The global average temperature is already approxi- tourist centers, and transportation corridors. With roughly 2 mately 0.8 °C above its preindustrial level, and present at- billion people having to rely on fires and lanterns instead of mospheric levels of greenhouse gases will contribute to electricity, what is visible only hints at the full extent of the further warming of 0.5–1 °C as equilibrium is re-established. -
Geoengineering: Parts I, Ii, and Iii
GEOENGINEERING: PARTS I, II, AND III HEARING BEFORE THE COMMITTEE ON SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES ONE HUNDRED ELEVENTH CONGRESS FIRST SESSION AND SECOND SESSION NOVEMBER 5, 2009 FEBRUARY 4, 2010 and MARCH 18, 2010 Serial No. 111–62 Serial No. 111–75 and Serial No. 111–88 Printed for the use of the Committee on Science and Technology ( GEOENGINEERING: PARTS I, II, AND III GEOENGINEERING: PARTS I, II, AND III HEARING BEFORE THE COMMITTEE ON SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES ONE HUNDRED ELEVENTH CONGRESS FIRST SESSION AND SECOND SESSION NOVEMBER 5, 2009 FEBRUARY 4, 2010 and MARCH 18, 2010 Serial No. 111–62 Serial No. 111–75 and Serial No. 111–88 Printed for the use of the Committee on Science and Technology ( Available via the World Wide Web: http://science.house.gov U.S. GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE 53–007PDF WASHINGTON : 2010 For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office Internet: bookstore.gpo.gov Phone: toll free (866) 512–1800; DC area (202) 512–1800 Fax: (202) 512–2104 Mail: Stop IDCC, Washington, DC 20402–0001 COMMITTEE ON SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY HON. BART GORDON, Tennessee, Chair JERRY F. COSTELLO, Illinois RALPH M. HALL, Texas EDDIE BERNICE JOHNSON, Texas F. JAMES SENSENBRENNER JR., LYNN C. WOOLSEY, California Wisconsin DAVID WU, Oregon LAMAR S. SMITH, Texas BRIAN BAIRD, Washington DANA ROHRABACHER, California BRAD MILLER, North Carolina ROSCOE G. BARTLETT, Maryland DANIEL LIPINSKI, Illinois VERNON J. EHLERS, Michigan GABRIELLE GIFFORDS, Arizona FRANK D. LUCAS, Oklahoma DONNA F. EDWARDS, Maryland JUDY BIGGERT, Illinois MARCIA L. FUDGE, Ohio W. -
Text for the Remainder of the Report
Final Draft Chapter 1 IPCC WG1 Fourth Assessment Report 1 Chapter 1: Historical Overview of Climate Change Science 2 3 Coordinating Lead Authors: Hervé Le Treut (France), Richard Somerville (USA) 4 5 Lead Authors: Ulrich Cubasch (Germany), Yihui Ding (China), Cecilie Mauritzen (Norway), Abdalah 6 Mokssit (Morocco), Thomas Peterson (USA), Michael Prather (USA) 7 8 Contributing Authors: Myles Allen (UK), Ingeborg Auer (Austria), Joachim Biercamp (Germany), Curt 9 Covey (USA), James Fleming (USA), Joanna Haigh (UK), Gabriele Hegerl (USA, Germany), Ricardo 10 García-Herrera (Spain), Peter Gleckler (USA), Ketil Isaksen (Norway), Julie Jones (Germany, UK), Jürg 11 Luterbacher (Switzerland), Michael MacCracken (USA), Joyce E. Penner (USA), Christian Pfister 12 (Switzerland), Erich Roeckner (Germany), Benjamin Santer (USA), Friedrich Schott (Germany), Frank 13 Sirocko (Germany), Andrew Staniforth (UK), Thomas F. Stocker (Switzerland), Ronald J. Stouffer (USA), 14 Karl E. Taylor (USA), Kevin E. Trenberth (USA), Antje Weisheimer (UK, Germany), Martin Widmann 15 (Germany, UK), Carl Wunsch (USA) 16 17 Review Editors: Alphonsus Baede (Netherlands), David Griggs (UK), Maria Martelo (Venezuela) 18 19 Date of Draft: 27 October 2006 20 21 Do Not Cite or Quote 1-1 Total pages: 44 Final Draft Chapter 1 IPCC WG1 Fourth Assessment Report 1 Table of Contents 2 3 Executive Summary............................................................................................................................................................3 4 1.1 Overview of the -
S&TR December 2017 Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory 4
S&TR December 2017 Smoke from the 2016 Soberanes Fire in Monterey County, California—the costliest wildfire up to that time—begins to block out the Milky Way. Climate change makes droughts more likely and such fires more frequent and larger in scale. (Photo by Li Liu, M.D.) 4 Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory S&TR December 2017 Climate Modeling The Atmosphere around CLIMATE MODELS Supercomputers, the laws of physics, and Lawrence Livermore’s nuclear weapons research all interact to advance atmospheric science and climate modeling. INCE the 1960s, computer models power than we carry in our pockets now, In fact, Livermore’s climate models S have been ensuring the safe whereas today’s advanced computers trace their origins to the Laboratory’s return of astronauts from orbital and allow us to study phenomena vastly more initial development of codes to simulate lunar missions by carefully predicting complex than orbital dynamics.” That nuclear weapons. Hendrickson states, complicated spacecraft trajectories. A computational power offers unprecedented “Our primary mission is nuclear weapons slight miscalculation could cause a craft to insight into how the physical world works, design, which has required us to create zoom past the Moon or Earth and become providing details about phenomena that unique computational capabilities. These lost in space, or approach too steeply would be infeasible to study with physical capabilities have also been applied to and face an equally disastrous outcome. experiments. At Lawrence Livermore, other national needs, including modeling Bruce Hendrickson, Livermore’s associate numerical models running on high- the atmosphere and the rest of the director for Computation, points out, “In performance computers are a vital part climate system.” the 1960s, scientists and engineers put of research in many programs, including Over the years, advances in scientific people on the Moon with less computing stockpile stewardship and climate studies. -
WORKSHOP PROCEEDINGS Assessing the Benefits of Avoided Climate Change: Cost‐Benefit Analysis and Beyond
WORKSHOP PROCEEDINGS Assessing the Benefits of Avoided Climate Change: Cost‐Benefit Analysis and Beyond March 16‐17, 2009 Washington, DC May 2010 This workshop was made possible through a generous grant from the Energy Foundation. Energy Foundation 301 Battery St. San Francisco, CA 94111 Workshop Speakers David Anthoff, Eileen Claussen, Kristie Ebi, Chris Hope, Richard Howarth, Anthony Janetos, Dina Kruger, James Lester, Michael MacCracken, Michael Mastrandrea, Steve Newbold, Brian O’Neill, Jon O’Riordan, Christopher Pyke, Martha Roberts, Steve Rose, Joel Smith, Paul Watkiss, Gary Yohe Project Directors Steve Seidel Janet Peace Project Manager Jay Gulledge Production Editor L. Jeremy Richardson Content Editors Jay Gulledge, L. Jeremy Richardson, Liwayway Adkins, Steve Seidel Suggested Citation Gulledge, J., L. J. Richardson, L. Adkins, and S. Seidel (eds.), 2010. Assessing the Benefits of Avoided Climate Change: CostBenefit Analysis and Beyond. Proceedings of Workshop on Assessing the Benefits of Avoided Climate Change, Washington, DC, March 16‐17, 2009. Pew Center on Global Climate Change: Arlington, VA. Available at: http://www.pewclimate.org/events/2009/benefitsworkshop. The complete workshop proceedings, including video of 17 expert presentations, this summary report, and individual offprints of expert papers are available free of charge from the Pew Center on Global Climate Change at http://www.pewclimate.org/events/2009/benefitsworkshop. May 2010 Pew Center on Global Climate Change 2101 Wilson Blvd., Suite 550 Arlington, VA 22201