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The Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Transportation

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The Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Transportation DOT Center for Climate Change and Environmental Forecasting The Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Transportation Federal Research Partnership Workshop October 1-2, 2002 Summary and Discussion Papers The Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Transportation Research Workshop was sponsored by: U.S. Department of Transportation Center for Climate Change and Environmental Forecasting U.S. Environmental Protection Agency The U.S. Global Change Research Program of the U.S. Climate Change Science Program U.S. Department of Energy ii Interagency Working Group Department of Transportation Center for Climate Change and Environmental Forecasting Karrigan Bork Department of Transportation Kay Drucker Bureau of Transportation Statistics Paul Marx Federal Transit Administration Michael Savonis Federal Highway Administration Donald Trilling Department of Transportation (retired) Robert Hyman Consultant to Federal Highway Administration (Cambridge Systematics) Joanne R. Potter Consultant to Federal Highway Administration (Cambridge Systematics) Environmental Protection Agency Ken Adler Anne Grambsch Jim Titus Department of Energy Mitch Baer U.S. Global Change Research Program Michael MacCracken (retired) ACKNOWLEDGMENTS The DOT Center for Climate Change and Environmental Forecasting would like to thank the Brookings Institution for providing space for this workshop, Douglas Brookman of Public Solutions for facilitation services, and the members of the interagency working group for their invaluable assistance in planning the workshop and this publication. Thanks go to Karrigan Bork, Virginia Burkett, Mort Downey, Kay Drucker, David Easterling, Robert Hyman, Timothy Klein, Michael MacCracken, Paul Marx, Lourdes Maurice, Brian Mills, J. Rolf Olsen, Donald Plotkin, Michael Rossetti, Michael Savonis, Jim Shrouds, Donald Trilling, Martin Wachs, and Rae Zimmerman for reviewing and commenting on the workshop summary. Finally, the DOT Center gratefully acknowledges the generous contributions of the authors of the 18 discussion papers contained in this report. Their informative and insightful papers were instrumental to the success of the workshop. Their papers represent a significant contribution to the body of knowledge on this subject and will help promote greater understanding of transportation and climate change issues. The opinions expressed in the discussion papers are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the views of the U.S. Department of Transportation. Cover credits: Bike rack photo courtesy of Sportworks. iii Table of Contents Foreword Emil H. Frankel Part I: Workshop Summary Workshop Summary 3 Joanne R. Potter Part II: Discussion Papers Overviews Global Warming: A Science Overview 33 Michael C. MacCracken Observed Climate Change and Transportation 49 David R. Easterling National Assessment of the Consequences of Climate Variability and Change for the United States 59 Michael C. MacCracken Notes on Transportation into the Year 2025 65 Donald R. Trilling Climate Change and Transportation: Potential Interactions and Impacts 77 Brian Mills and Jean Andrey Regional Case Studies Global Climate Change and Transportation Infrastructure: Lessons from the New York Area 91 Rae Zimmerman Potential Impacts of Climate Change and Variability on Transportation in the Gulf Coast/Mississippi Delta Region 103 Virginia R. Burkett The Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Great Lakes Transportation 115 Frank H. Quinn iv Climate Change and the Potential Implications for California's Transportation System 125 Pierre duVair, Douglas Wickizer, and Mary Jean Burer Does Sea Level Rise Matter to Transportation Along the Atlantic Coast? 135 Jim Titus Impacts of Climate Change on Transportation in Alaska 151 Orson P. Smith and George Levasseur System Impacts Surface Transportation Safety and Operations: The Impacts of Weather within the Context of Climate Change 165 Paul Pisano, Lynette Goodwin and Andrew Stern Impacts of Global Climate Change on Freight 185 Harry Caldwell, Kate H. Quinn, Jacob Meunier, John Suhrbier, and Lance Grenzeback Weather and Aviation: How Does Weather Affect the Safety and Operations of Airports and Aviation, and How Does FAA Work to Manage Weather-related Effects? 199 Gloria Kulesa Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Railroads 209 Michael A. Rossetti Environment and Planning Climate Change and Air Quality 225 Anne Grambsch Potential Climate Impacts on Land Use 237 Paul Marx Water Quality and Ecosystems 245 Erika S. Mortenson and Fred G. Bank Part III: Appendices Workshop Agenda 255 Participant List 259 v Foreword U.S. Department of Assistant Secretary 400 Seventh St., SW Transportation Washington, DC 20590 Office of the Secretary of Transportation Dear Colleagues: Climate change and climate variability are of great consequence to transportation. The workshop described in this report focused on the increasingly important issue of how future climate change might affect transportation, in contrast to other U.S. Department of Transportation efforts focused on how the transportation community might reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Our national transportation network is key to our Nation’s economic vitality and to the ability of individuals and families to lead full and productive lives. Local, State, and regional agencies work hard to ensure that communities and businesses have a safe and reliable transportation system that gets them where they need to go – whether that be across town or across the country. Meeting the country’s future needs for this vast intermodal infrastructure requires thoughtful planning, close work with communities and industry, and the best information and data we can gather about past trends and what the future may hold. The prospect of a changing climate adds a new element to this complex equation. Climate scientists are projecting changes in sea levels, weather patterns, temperatures, and other climate variables that could affect transportation decisions. The Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Transportation research workshop brought together top transportation professionals and climate change experts to explore what is known about the interaction between climate change and transportation, and to identify the key research questions needed to better understand the potential risks to our transportation system. The recommendations generated by workshop participants will be invaluable to the Department of Transportation, and to the broader research community, as we pursue research on this critical topic. Sincerely, Emil Frankel Assistant Secretary for Transportation Policy Part 1: Workshop Summary Workshop Summary 3 Workshop Summary By Joanne R. Potter In October 2002 the U.S. Department of Transportation Center for Climate Change and Environmental Forecasting (the Center) hosted a workshop of leading experts and decision makers in transportation and climate change. The purpose was twofold: to discuss the potential impacts of climate change on transportation, and to gain input and perspectives on the research necessary to better understand these impacts. The workshop marked a new area of investigation for the Center, which, since its creation in 1998, has concentrated on understanding and mitigating the effects of transportation on our global climate. The Center is now expanding its research to consider the implications a changing climate might have for the future of transportation and how the transportation community might be better prepared to avoid or adapt to any potential impacts. The Center enlisted the support of key Federal partners in this effort: the Environmental Protection Agency, the Department of Energy, and the U.S. Global Change Research Program (under the auspices of the U.S. Climate Change Science Program). An interagency working group provided technical support and guidance to the Department of Transportation and was instrumental in the workshop’s success. The Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Transportation Research Workshop was held October 1- 2, 2002, at the Brookings Institution in Washington D.C. The sixty-four invited participants included transportation professionals, regional and national stakeholders, and experts in climate change and assessment research, the environment, planning, and energy (Table 1). Appendix A provides a complete list of participants and their affiliations. Throughout the day and a half long event, participants explored the key challenges climate change may pose for transportation in specific regions and for specific modes, and identified priority areas for research, through interdisciplinary breakout sessions. This report provides a summary of the workshop and the research recommendations generated by participants. This summary is followed by eighteen discussion papers that address various aspects of the relationship between climate change and transportation, and suggest opportunities for further study. The Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Transportation 4 Workshop Summary Table 1. Workshop participants. U.S. Federal Agencies U.S. Climate Change Science Program National Aeronautics and Space Administration U.S. Department of Energy National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration U.S. Department of Transportation U.S. Army Corps of Engineers U.S. Environmental Protection Agency U.S. Geological Survey State and Local Governments Alaska Department of Transportation and Public Delaware Valley Regional Planning Commission Facilities New York State Department of Transportation Chicago Area Transportation Study International Government
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