Human Settlements, Infrastructure, and Spatial Planning Chapter 12

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Human Settlements, Infrastructure, and Spatial Planning Chapter 12 Human Settlements, Infrastructure, and 12 Spatial Planning Coordinating Lead Authors: Karen C. Seto (USA), Shobhakar Dhakal (Nepal / Thailand) Lead Authors: Anthony Bigio (Italy / USA), Hilda Blanco (USA), Gian Carlo Delgado (Mexico), David Dewar (South Africa), Luxin Huang (China), Atsushi Inaba (Japan), Arun Kansal (India), Shuaib Lwasa (Uganda), James McMahon (USA), Daniel B. Müller (Switzerland / Norway), Jin Murakami (Japan / China), Harini Nagendra (India), Anu Ramaswami (USA) Contributing Authors: Antonio Bento (Portugal / USA), Michele Betsill (USA), Harriet Bulkeley (UK), Abel Chavez (USA / Germany), Peter Christensen (USA), Felix Creutzig (Germany), Michail Fragkias (Greece / USA), Burak Güneralp (Turkey / USA), Leiwen Jiang (China / USA), Peter Marcotullio (USA), David McCollum (IIASA/ USA), Adam Millard-Ball (UK / USA), Paul Pichler (Germany), Serge Salat (France), Cecilia Tacoli (UK / Italy), Helga Weisz (Germany), Timm Zwickel (Germany) Review Editors: Robert Cervero (USA), Julio Torres Martinez (Cuba) Chapter Science Assistants: Peter Christensen (USA), Cary Simmons (USA) This chapter should be cited as: Seto K. C., S. Dhakal, A. Bigio, H. Blanco, G. C. Delgado, D. Dewar, L. Huang, A. Inaba, A. Kansal, S. Lwasa, J. E. McMahon, D. B. Müller, J. Murakami, H. Nagendra, and A. Ramaswami, 2014: Human Settlements, Infrastructure and Spatial Planning. In: Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Edenhofer, O., R. Pichs-Madruga, Y. Sokona, E. Farahani, S. Kadner, K. Seyboth, A. Adler, I. Baum, S. Brunner, P. Eickemeier, B. Kriemann, J. Savolainen, S. Schlömer, C. von Stechow, T. Zwickel and J.C. Minx (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA. 923 Human Settlements, Infrastructure, and Spatial Planning Chapter 12 Contents Executive Summary � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 927 12 12�1 Introduction � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 929 12�2 Human settlements and GHG emissions � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 930 12�2�1 The role of cities and urban areas in energy use and GHG emissions � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 930 12.2.1.1 Urban population dynamics �����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������931 12.2.1.2 Urban land use ��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������933 12.2.1.3 Urban economies and GDP ������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������933 12�2�2 GHG emission estimates from human settlements � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 933 12.2.2.1 Estimates of the urban share of global emissions ������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������935 12.2.2.2 Emissions accounting for human settlements ����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������936 12�2�3 Future trends in urbanization and GHG emissions from human settlements � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 939 12.2.3.1 Dimension 1: Urban population ����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������939 12.2.3.2 Dimension 2: Urban land cover ����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������940 12.2.3.3 Dimension 3: GHG emissions ��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������941 12�3 Urban systems: Activities, resources, and performance � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 942 12�3�1 Overview of drivers of urban GHG emissions � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 942 12.3.1.1 Emission drivers decomposition via IPAT ��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������942 12.3.1.2 Interdependence between drivers ����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������944 12.3.1.3 Human settlements, linkages to sectors, and policies ������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������944 12�3�2 Weighing of drivers � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 944 12.3.2.1 Qualitative weighting ������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������944 12.3.2.2 Relative weighting of drivers for sectoral mitigation options ��������������������������������������������������������������������������������947 12.3.2.3 Quantitative modelling to determine driver weights ��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������948 12.3.2.4 Conclusions on drivers of GHG emissions at the urban scale ��������������������������������������������������������������������������������948 12�3�3 Motivation for assessment of spatial planning, infrastructure, and urban form drivers � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 949 924 Chapter 12 Human Settlements, Infrastructure, and Spatial Planning 12�4 Urban form and infrastructure � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 949 12�4�1 Infrastructure � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 951 12�4�2 Urban form � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 952 12.4.2.1 Density ������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������952 12.4.2.2 Land use mix ������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������955 12 12.4.2.3 Connectivity ��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������956 12.4.2.4 Accessibility ��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������956 12.4.2.5 Effects of combined options ����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������957 12�5 Spatial planning and climate change mitigation � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 958 12�5�1 Spatial planning strategies � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 958 12.5.1.1 Macro: Regions and metropolitan areas ����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������958 12.5.1.2 Meso: Sub-regions, corridors, and districts ����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������960 12.5.1.3 Micro: communities, neighbourhoods, streetscapes ����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������960 12�5�2 Policy instruments � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � � 962 12.5.2.1 Land use regulations ��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������962 12.5.2.2 Land management and acquisition ��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������963
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