EMISSIONS AND REDUCTION 2 TARGETS Measuring past and present greenhouse EMISSION INVENTORIES  Agriculture – Emissions from off-road gas (GHG) emission levels is a critical first farm equipment, irrigation pumps, The County prepared communitywide GHG step in the development of the climate residue burning, livestock, pesticide emissions inventories by key sector for the action plan. Without these benchmarks, the application, rice cultivation, lime and unincorporated County for both 1990 and County cannot determine appropriate urea application, and fertilizer 2008. The inventories do not include future targets. Furthermore, identifying the volatization. emissions for the four incorporated cities, sources, distribution, and magnitude of independent special districts, school emissions allows the County to develop the districts, UC Davis, tribal lands, or state specific measures and actions needed to and federally-owned lands. Each of these achieve those targets, by addressing entities is responsible for preparing their Figure 2-1: 1990 Unincorporated Yolo County various emission-generating activities. own inventory and Climate Action Plan by Sector

(CAP). The 1990 inventory provides a This chapter describes communitywide “historic baseline” for determining the level GHG emissions inventories for of emission reductions necessary to unincorporated Yolo County in 1990 and comply with State requirements. The 2008 2008. Emission projections for 2020, 2030, inventory measures emissions growth 2040, and 2050 are provided, as well as Transportation between the historic baseline and the 25% emission reduction targets and goals for Agriculture adoption of the 2030 General Plan, each year. The role of anticipated State 48% providing an “existing conditions” and federal actions is included in the reference. The sectors analyzed represent discussion of future emission projections. A categories of emissions that are commonly description of the methods and sources of Energy used within research and information used to complete the 22% analysis, as follows: inventories and projections is provided in

Appendix A.

Wastewater Mining and 0.04% Construction Stationary Solid Waste 2% Sources 0.3% 3%

11 │ YOLO COUNTY CLIMATE ACTION PLAN: A Strategy for Smart Growth Implementation, Greenhouse Gas Reduction, and Adaptation to Global Climate Change

 Energy Consumption – Emissions  Construction and Mining – Emissions activities contributed less than 1%. Non- from electricity production, natural gas associated with on-site use of heavy jurisdictional emissions, including the and propane combustion, and duty equipment. Emissions associated mining/ construction sector and stationary- domestic water consumption. with the land use itself, such as other source sectors, made up approximately 5%  Transportation – Emissions from transportation emissions or energy use, of the total. vehicles traveling on highways and are captured in other relevant sectors.

roadways within the County, adjusted Figure 2-2: Unincorporated Greenhouse Gas to deduct trips that did not start and/or 1990 Historic Emissions Inventory Emissions by Sector in 2008 finish in the County (all In 1990, the unincorporated external/external and half of portions of Yolo County external/internal) Solid Waste generated an estimated 1%  Solid Waste – Emissions from disposal 613,651 metric tons (MT) of at the Yolo County Central Landfill. carbon dioxide equivalent

 Wastewater Treatment – Methane (CO2e) emissions. Table 2-1 Transportation emissions from secondary treatment and Figure 2-1 summarize 16% wastewater facilities. Tertiary treatment this level of emissions and facilities, which do not have GHG the contribution of each emissions, are captured in the energy activity sector. Agriculture 46% consumption sector. Agriculture-related activities  Stationary Sources – Industrial and made up about half of the commercial facilities, such as Energy 1990 emissions. 29% manufacturing facilities, wineries, food Transportation of goods and processing plans, etc. people accounted for approximately 25%, while energy consumption made Wastewater up about 22%. Solid waste Stationary Construction & Treatment and wastewater treatment Sources Mining 0% 5% 4%

Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Targets │ 12

2008 Emission Inventory stationary-source emissions grew by 96% related emissions decreased by 32% from Between 1990 and 2008, GHG emissions in and 75% respectively. The increase in trips within unincorporated areas the unincorporated County grew by about emissions from the mining/construction (approximately 50,300 MT CO 2e). While sector is attributable to an increase in the 6% to an estimated 651,740 MT CO2e. The overall household vehicle travel increased largest increase occurred within the energy size of the construction equipment fleet during this period, emissions decreased sector, where emissions grew by 38% within the incorporated area. The increase because some areas of the County that

(approximately 50,000 MT CO2e). in stationary-source emissions is were unincorporated in 1990 were annexed Population growth and higher levels of associated with a change in the type of into cities. Thus, these emissions are no household eergy use were the primary facilities and their associated throughput in longer attributed to the County. Increased drivers of this increase. Agricultural the County. Each of these sectors, fuel efficiency also contributed to the emissions grew by about 1.8% however, represents a very small decrease.

(approximately 5,300 MT CO2e). While contribution to overall emission levels. emissions decreased in many agricultural Between 1990 and 2008, transportation- subsectors, the addition of thousands of acres of rice cultivation, additional Figure 2-3: Greenhouse Gas Emissions livestock, and more lime application to in Unincorporated Yolo County 1990 - 2050 agricultural soils led to an overall increase. 1,600,000 Solid Waste and

e/year) 1,400,000 Solid waste and wastewater emissions 2 Wastewater more than doubled, growing by 315% and 1,200,000 280% (approximately 5,000 MT CO e and 2 1,000,000 700 MT CO e) respectively. Growth in solid 2 800,000 Energy waste-related emissions can be attributed to both growth in volume disposed 600,000 associated with new growth, and the 400,000 Transportation contribution from waste that has GHG Emissions (MT CO Emissions GHG accumulated at the landfill over the last 18 200,000 Agriculture years. Similarly, mining/construction and 0 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

13 │ YOLO COUNTY CLIMATE ACTION PLAN: A Strategy for Smart Growth Implementation, Greenhouse Gas Reduction, and Adaptation to Global Climate Change

There are approximately 14,855 acres of wetlands in terms of GHG emissions. and water consumption trends will wetlands currently in Yolo County. Nearly Moreover, because there is currently no continue into the future. The projections do all of this wetland development has accepted and dependable protocol for not include emission reductions associated occurred over the past 20 years. In recent making general emissions estimates for with federal and State GHG reduction years, the pace of wetland creation has wetland areas, the ARB has not included programs or implementation of the CAP. occurred at a faster rate than urbanization. this sector in the statewide emissions Since 2008, several new projects have inventory. As such, estimates for wetlands The projections were developed using been approved, primarily adjoining the in Yolo County were not included in the applicable and appropriate indicators for Sacramento River and in the lower Yolo base-year inventory. each emissions sector. They were Bypass. Consequently, wetlands are developed for planning purposes, and playing an increasing role related to GHG More detail on the available research represent the best-available estimates. emissions and climate change. related to wetlands and GHG emissions is Given the complexity of each emissions provided in Appendix A. sector and the unpredictable of Wetlands sequester carbon in vegetation market conditions, human behavior and and inundated soils through the process of EMISSION PROJECTIONS demographics, they will likely be revised in CO uptake from the atmosphere, the future as more data becomes available. 2 Emission projections estimate future photosynthesis, and decomposition. The County will reevaluate the projections emissions levels and provide insight Wetlands also result in the generation of throughout the CAP implementation regarding the scale of reductions GHGs including methane (CH ), which has process. 4 necessary to achieve an emissions target global warming potential 21 times that of or goal. The County has prepared GHG CO , from the anaerobic decomposition of Projected 2020, 2030, 2040, and 2050 2 projections within the unincorporated area biomass (e.g., bacteria); nitrous oxide communitywide emissions for for 2020, 2030, 2040, and 2050. (N O) from nitrification and denitrification unincorporated Yolo County are presented 2 processes; and CO2, CH4, and N2O from The projections are based on population in Table 2-1. Due to a lack of jurisdictional peat soil subsidence and oxidation and employment growth forecasts from the control over the stationary-source sector associated with draining activities. Yolo County General Plan. They assume and over the heavy equipment used in the construction and mining sector, these Without site specific data, it is not possible that historical and current energy emissions are excluded from the CAP to estimate the net effect of any particular consumption, transportation, solid waste,

Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Targets │ 14

projections. Examples of permitted GREENHOUSE GAS REDUCTION stationary-source emissions that are not 1990 EMISSIONS LEVEL under the control of the County include TARGETS AND GOALS A baseline level of emissions is equipment and process emissions at Yolo County has made considerable effort necessary to establish an emissions manufacturing facilities. These facilities and to select emission reduction targets and target and evaluate CAP achievement. equipment are permitted by the Yolo- goals that are both ambitious and practical. Yolo County selected 1990 emissions Solano Air Quality Management District, Achieving them will contribute to both State levels as its baseline in accordance with and their GHG emissions would be and international climate protection efforts. the AB 32 reduction target (1990 levels controlled under the jurisdiction of the Air Yolo County seeks to reduce GHG by 2020). The County’s emissions Resources Board pursuant to AB 32. emissions as follows: targets reference this baseline.

 1990 levels by 2020 In 2020, jurisdictional emissions are The 1990 baseline inventory includes (613,651 MT CO e/yr) anticipated to be about 62% higher than 2 emissions from all activity sectors. 1990 levels, reaching approximately  27% below 1990 levels by 2030 Because the County has no jurisdictional (447,965 MT CO e/yr) control over process emissions from 993,540 MT CO e. In 2030, 2040, and 2 2 stationary sources or the heavy 2050, emissions are anticipated to increase  53% below 1990 levels by 2040 equipment used in the construction and by approximately 127%, 145%, and 162% (288,416 MT CO2e/yr)  80% below 1990 levels by 2050 mining sector, these sectors were respectively. removed from the 2020 and future year (122,730 MT CO e/yr) 2 emissions projections. Table 2-1 shows that growth in energy and transportation emissions will contribute to The GHG reduction potentials of the the majority of the increase. New CAP measures were summed and residential and commercial development subtracted from the projected 2020 and planned for the Dunnigan Specific Plan 2030 jurisdictional emissions. The area and existing unincorporated remaining emissions levels were communities are key factors in this compared with the 1990 baseline to projected trend. determine if the 2020 target and 2030 goal would be met.

15 │ YOLO COUNTY CLIMATE ACTION PLAN: A Strategy for Smart Growth Implementation, Greenhouse Gas Reduction, and Adaptation to Global Climate Change

There are approximately 14,855 acres of wetlands in Yolo County, and the pace of wetland creation has occurred at a faster pace than urbanization. Consequently, wetlands are playing an increasing role related to GHG emissions and climate change through carbon sequestration.

TABLE 2-1 UNINCORPORATED COMMUNITYWIDE GREENHOUSE GAS INVENTORY AND PROJECTIONS: 1990 - 2050

1990 2008 2020 2030 2040 2050

Sector Change Change Change Change Change

MT CO2e/yr MT CO2e/yr from MT CO2e/yr from MT CO2e/yr from MT CO2e/yr from MT CO2e/yr from 1990 1990 1990 1990 1990

Agriculture 292,032 297,341 1.8% 289,482 -0.9% 281,624 -4% 281,624 -4% 281,624 -4%

Transportation 155,577 105,253 -32% 285,492 84% 465,731 199% 510,677 228% 554,733 257%

Energy 131,652 181,447 38% 404,929 208% 628,444 337% 689,093 423% 748,757 469%

1,016 1,123 Solid Waste 1,654 6,871 316% 12,660 666% 18,449 20,230 21,975 1,229% % %

Wastewater 256 974 281% 974 281% 709 177% 709 177% 709 177%

Stationary Source 17,526 30,583 75% Not Included NA Not Included NA Not Included NA Not Included NA (Non-Jurisdictional) Mining & Construction 14,954 29,271 96% Not Included NA Not Included NA Not Included NA Not Included NA (Non-Jurisdictional)

Total 613,651 651,740 6% 993,537 62% 1,394,957 127% 1,502,332 145% 1,607,798 162%

Notes: Stationary Source and Mining and Construction sectors are not included in 2020, 2030, 2040, or 2050 jurisdiction emissions projections. Source: Ascent Environmental Inc, 2010

Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Targets │ 16

Figure 2-4 illustrates the magnitude of these reductions.

This CAP is designed to address only the mandatory 2020 emission reduction target and the 2030 emission reduction goal, consistent with the timeline of the 2030 General Plan. Yolo County recognizes the 2050 goal (i.e., 80% below 1990 levels) established by the Governor’s Executive Order S-03-05 and by Resolution No. 07- 109 (the U.S. Cool Counties Climate Stabilization Declaration). However, the General Plan extends only to 2030, which makes projecting 2050 activity and emission levels highly uncertain. As a result, this CAP does not address the steps needed to achieve reduction targets beyond the General Plan horizon year of 2030. The County will regularly reevaluate its long-term GHG reduction goals to reflect future circumstances and adjust emission reduction strategies accordingly. through State and federal efforts. These regulations requiring increasing amounts of STATEWIDE REDUCTIONS include existing federal regulations electricity generated from renewable addressing GHG emissions from sources (e.g., California Renewable Energy This CAP assumes that the increase of passenger cars and trucks (e.g., Corporate Portfolio Standard Program). These GHG emissions within the transportation Average Fuel Economy), as well as State federal and State actions provide important and energy sectors will be reduced

17 │ YOLO COUNTY CLIMATE ACTION PLAN: A Strategy for Smart Growth Implementation, Greenhouse Gas Reduction, and Adaptation to Global Climate Change

reductions that are applied toward the Statewide emission reductions anticipated California State Targets County’s 2020 reduction target and 2030 from the Scoping Plan have been applied reduction goal. The County will monitor the to the associated emissions sectors in the Executive Order S-3-05 effectiveness of federal and State State’s inventory (i.e., transportation and In June 2005, Governor legislation to ensure that the anticipated energy use) in order to derive a percent Schwarzenegger signed Executive level of reduction is achieved. reduction in the applicable County Order S-3-05. The order establishes emission sector. Table 2-2 summarizes targets to reduce statewide GHG 2020 Statewide Reductions how emission reductions from these State emissions to 2000 levels by 2010, to The Climate Change Scoping Plan and federal programs would affect 1990 levels by 2020, and to 80% (Scoping Plan) describes the GHG projected emissions within the below 1990 levels by 2050. reductions associated with State legislation unincorporated area. If these programs are Assembly Bill 32 for each sector of the 2020 emissions implemented as described in the Scoping In September 2006, Governor inventory. In particular, the following State Plan, the County’s 2020 emissions will be Schwarzenegger signed programs will have a direct effect on the reduced by a maximum of 12.2% from Assembly Bill 32, the California Global County’s GHG emission projections: projected levels, achieving a reduction of Warming Solutions Act of 2006. This approximately 121,212 MT CO2e/yr in 2020. law requires California to reduce  Improved emission standards for light- statewide GHG emissions to 1990 duty vehicles, levels by 2020.  Enhanced energy efficiency measures Climate Change Scoping Plan in buildings and appliances, The Climate Change Scoping Plan  A renewable electricity standard to was approved by the California Air increase the use of non-fossil fuels for Resources Board (ARB) in 2008, and electricity production, and outlines the State’s plan to achieve emission reductions required in AB  Land use planning and Sustainable 32. The plan encourages local Communities Strategies implementing jurisdictions to reduce GHG emissions Senate Bill (SB) 375. to 1990 levels or 15% below current levels.

Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Targets │ 18

Implementation of the State’s Climate Change Scoping Plan is expected to reduce the County’s 2020 emissions by approximately 12.2% from projected levels.

Table 2-2: Estimated Effects of State and Federal Programs on Unincorporated County GHG Emissions in 2020 Scoping Plan- Projected % of Yolo % Emission Estimated Statewide 2020 County Reduction from Affected Emission Emissions of % Emission Inventory 2020 Projected Emissions Reduction Sector Reduction Affected in Emissions

Scoping Plan Measure Sector (MMT CO2e by 2020) (MMT CO2e by 2020) (Statewide) 2020 (Yolo County) Federal Fuel Economy Standards; AB 1493 (Pavley) Transportation 27.7 225.4 12.3% 28.7% 3.5% Regional Transportation-Related Targets (SB 375) Transportation 5 225.4 2.2% 28.7% 0.6% Energy Efficiency Measures; California Green Building Code Energy 15.2 185.9 8.2% 40.8% 3.3% Renewable Electricity Standard; Renewable Portfolio Standard Energy 21.3 185.9 11.5% 40.8% 4.7% Total 12.2%

Table 2-3: GHG Reductions Associated with Implementation of Pavley I in Yolo County in 2030 Weekday CO2 Emission Reduction GHG Emission Reduction from Pavley I Tons/Metric Ton Conversion from Pavley I

(tons/day) Days per Year* Conversion to CO2e (MT CO2e/yr) 397.3 347 0.90718474 0.95 131,660 Source: Air Resources Board Pavley I + Low Carbon Fuel Standard Postprocessor - Version 1.0 Notes: * The Postprocessor manual states that the weekday emissions values should be multiplied by 347 days per year in order to reflect reduced driving on weekend days.

19 │ YOLO COUNTY CLIMATE ACTION PLAN: A Strategy for Smart Growth Implementation, Greenhouse Gas Reduction, and Adaptation to Global Climate Change

2030 Statewide Reductions County’s GHG reduction target and goals The Scoping Plan’s GHG reduction as established in the CAP. estimates apply to 2020. The State has not conducted a similar analysis for 2030 or State and federal efforts to reduce GHG future years. For this reason, the 2020 emissions represent a significant part of the percent reduction estimates have been County’s strategy. These programs will used to calculate the anticipated account for 31.7% of the GHG emission reductions from federal and State reductions needed to achieve the 2020 programs in 2030. The one exception to County target, and 26.7% of the reductions this method is use of the ARB Pavley and needed to meet the County 2030 goal. LCFS Postprocessor to estimate the Should the State and federal government reduction potential of the Federal Fuel not proceed with their plans to reduce Economy Standards and Pavley legislation. truck/vehicle emissions and/or to increase the amount of electricity generated by As demonstrated in Table 2-3, renewable sources, then future changes implementation of the Pavley-required fuel may be required to the reduction strategy efficiency standards would reduce GHG through the biennial review of the CAP.

emissions by 131,660 MT CO2e/yr in 2030 State law requires that the CAP be (about 9.4% of projected 2030 emissions). amended should the County determine Combined, federal and State programs are that the adopted 2020 target is not being expected to achieve a reduction of achieved. As a part of this monitoring approximately 253,021 MT CO2e/yr in 2030 process, the implementation of individual (about 18.1% of projected 2030 emissions). measures and overall success toward achieving the 2020 GHG reduction target is County-led actions described in Chapter 3 to be evaluated and reported on every are designed to achieve additional other year, beginning in 2013. emissions reductions to accomplish the

Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Targets │ 20