National Security Program Homeland Security Project Today’s Rising Terrorist Threat and the Danger to the United States: Reflections on the Tenth Anniversary of The 9/11 Commission Report July 2014 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS The Bipartisan Policy Center would like to express its sincere appreciation for the support of the Annenberg Public Policy Center of the University of Pennsylvania and the Carnegie Corporation of New York, which made this report possible. DISCLAIMER This report is the product of the former 9/11 Commissioners. The findings and recommendations expressed herein do not necessarily represent the views or opinions of the Bipartisan Policy Center, its founders, or its board of directors. Reflections on the Tenth Anniversary of The 9/11 Commission Report 1 Former 9/11 Commission Members Thomas H. Kean Lee H. Hamilton Chair Vice Chair Richard Ben-Veniste Slade Gorton Timothy J. Roemer Fred F. Fielding Bob Kerrey James R. Thompson Jamie S. Gorelick John F. Lehman National Security Program Homeland Security Project Reflections on the Tenth Anniversary of The 9/11 Commission Report 3 Acknowledgments Over the past eight months, in anticipation of the 10th Counterterrorism Center Michael Leiter; former Deputy anniversary of The 9/11 Commission Report, the former Director of the Central Intelligence Agency Michael Morell; members of the commission reconvened to reflect on how and former Assistant Secretary of Homeland Security the world has changed over the past decade, to assess the David Heyman. While the views expressed in this paper are current terrorist threat to the United States, and to agree on those of commissioners alone, we are indebted to these recommendations for improving U.S. national security. leaders for their time and expertise. Each of them spoke to us about the dedication, professionalism and sacrifices The Bipartisan Policy Center sponsored and provided a of their colleagues serving without fanfare to protect this home for this project. We thank BPC Homeland Security country. We believe that if our fellow Americans had the Project Director Carie Lemack for organizing and leading the same opportunity to speak directly with these leaders, they process and express our gratitude to BPC President Jason would share our profound respect and appreciation for their Grumet, Senior Vice President Julie Anderson, Lindsay commitment to protecting the country. Each of them has our Boroush and her editorial team, and Michael Garcia for sincere thanks. supporting this intensive effort. Peter Bergen and his team at the New America Foundation We thank the Annenberg Public Policy Center (APPC) for made a valuable contribution to the paper. We would also its generous financial support for this project. In addition, like to express our thanks to Alexis Albion, Warren Bass, APPC’s Director Kathleen Hall Jamieson and Director of Al Felzenberg, and Daniel Marcus for their thoughtful Communications Michael Rozansky devoted considerable contributions. As always, Philip Zelikow, the executive time to reviewing this paper and providing editorial and director of the 9/11 Commission, provided sound advice substantive input. We thank them for those contributions. and helpful suggestions. Over the course of this project, we had the opportunity to Finally, Michael Hurley and Adam Klein assisted us greatly speak with many of the nation’s most senior current and in the drafting of the paper. Their commitment was former counterterrorism and national security officials. We steadfast, and we relied immensely on their judgment and are indebted to Director of National Intelligence James talents. Clapper; Director of the Central Intelligence Agency John Brennan; Director of the National Counterterrorism Center Matt Olsen; Chairman of the Privacy and Civil Liberties Oversight Board David Medine; Director of the Federal Bureau of Investigation James Comey; Secretary of Homeland Security Jeh Johnson; National Security Agency Thomas H. Kean, Chair Lee H. Hamilton, Vice Chair General Counsel Raj De; former Secretary of Defense and Director of the Central Intelligence Agency Leon Panetta; former Secretary of Homeland Security Michael Chertoff; former Secretary of Homeland Security Tom Ridge; former Director of the Federal Bureau of Investigation Robert Mueller; former director of the National Security Agency General Keith Alexander; former Director of the National National Security Program Homeland Security Project Reflections on the Tenth Anniversary of The 9/11 Commission Report 5 Table of Contents Acknowledgments .......................3 III: Bipartisanship in National Security .......33 Executive Summary ......................7 IV: Recommendations ....................37 Sustaining Counterterrorism Authorities and Budgets .... 37 Introduction ...........................11 Congressional Oversight ......................... 37 I: Evolving Threats .....................13 Office of the Director of National Intelligence ......... 38 National Intelligence Program Budget ............... 38 II: Looking Forward: Policy Challenges .......17 Defending the Cyber Domain ...................... 39 Imagination .................................. 17 Transparency ................................. 39 Management ................................. 20 Capabilities .................................. 25 Conclusion ...........................43 Policy ...................................... 29 Endnotes .............................45 National Security Program Homeland Security Project Reflections on the Tenth Anniversary of The 9/11 Commission Report 7 Executive Summary Ten years ago today, as members of the National Strenuous counterterrorism efforts will remain a fact of Commission on Terrorist Attacks Upon the United States, our national life for the foreseeable future. we issued The 9/11 Commission Report, the official account n Foreign fighters returning from Syria (and now Iraq) pose of the horrific attacks of September 11, 2001. A decade a grave threat to the U.S. homeland and Western Europe. later, we have reconvened, as private citizens, to reflect on More than 10,000 foreign fighters have flooded into Syria. the changes of the past ten years and the emerging threats Many are fighting alongside extremist groups there and in we face as a country. In recent months, we have spoken neighboring Iraq, learning battlefield skills and absorbing with some of the country’s most senior current and recently extremist ideology. More than 1,000 of them hold retired national security leaders. European passports, which (in most cases) would enable Here, in brief, is what we have learned: them to enter the United States without a visa. Of even greater concern, more than 100 American citizens have n The struggle against terrorism is far from over—rather, it traveled to Syria. When these battle-hardened, radicalized has entered a new and dangerous phase. The dedicated fighters return to their home countries, they will pose men and women in the U.S. military and intelligence a serious terrorist threat to both the United States and services have hit “core” al Qaeda—the Afghanistan- and Europe. Pakistan-based organization that struck the United States n on 9/11—with hammer blows, most notably by killing Cyber readiness lags far behind the threat. The senior Usama bin Ladin. But that does not mean that al Qaeda leaders with whom we spoke are uniformly alarmed by no longer poses a threat. Al Qaeda-affiliated groups are the cyber threat to the country. One former agency head gaining strength throughout the greater Middle East. Two said, “We are at September 10th levels in terms of cyber are most alarming. First, as of this writing, the fanatical preparedness.” American companies’ most-sensitive Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) has conquered patented technologies and intellectual property, U.S. parts of Syria and much of Western Iraq, slaughtering universities’ research and development, and the nation’s thousands of people in the process. As we wrote in The defense capabilities and critical infrastructure, are all 9/11 Commission Report: If “Iraq becomes a failed state, under cyber attack. Former National Security Agency it will go to the top of the list of places that are breeding Director General Keith Alexander has described the grounds for attacks against Americans at home.” That ongoing cyber theft of American intellectual property as nightmare scenario may now be coming to pass. Second, “the greatest transfer of wealth in history.” One lesson al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula has advanced of the 9/11 story is that, as a nation, Americans did not bombmaking capabilities and has already attempted awaken to the gravity of the terrorist threat until it was too several attacks on U.S. aviation targets. While the various late. History may be repeating itself in the cyber realm. al Qaeda spinoffs are primarily focused on regional n Congress has proved resistant to needed reforms. In conflicts, they hate the United States and will not forego 2004, the Department of Homeland Security reported opportunities to strike at the U.S. homeland. to 88 committees and subcommittees of Congress. We In short: The “generational struggle” against terrorism urged Congress to dramatically reduce that number. described in The 9/11 Commission Report is far from Incredibly, it has since increased to 92. This fragmented over. Rather, it is entering a new and dangerous phase, oversight detracts from national security by impeding the and America cannot afford to let down its guard. department’s development. Nor