20/20 Sports Betting
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20/20 Sports Betting Think Like a Pro Logan Fields HUNTINGTON PRESS LAS VEGAS, NEVADA Acknowledgements Special thanks to publisher Anthony Curtis for providing a way for gambling writers like myself to reach an audience. I knew when writing this book that Huntington Press would be the perfect home for it and I’m thrilled it all worked out. Deke Castleman was invaluable in the editing process and for his suggestions on making the material better. I had flashbacks to English 101 when first seeing Deke’s red-pen treatment of the manuscript, but it was necessary. Also thanks to graphic artist Laurie Cabot for her efforts in improving the presentation of the material. Thanks to my partner Jimmie for his contributions through the years. And a shout-out to his wife Mina for her assistance during our annual Super Bowl prop-week visits in Vegas. Thanks to my sister Ann, and brothers Bob, Tom, and Bill, for their love and support. I also want to acknowledge nephews Rob and Steve, along with sister-in-law Mary, for spreading the good word about the book. Most importantly, thanks to my wife, Elena, and daughter, Chelsea. Contents Author’s Note ......................................................................................1 What Can You Expect to Find in These Pages? ..............1 Introduction .........................................................................................5 My First Bet Online .................................................................6 Playing the Field ......................................................................7 My First Scare ........................................................................ 10 My First Payday ..................................................................... 12 The First In-Game Bets Ever Placed ............................... 13 My First Trip to Vegas ......................................................... 15 “I’ll Take a Nickel” ................................................................. 16 Down and Out ....................................................................... 17 Part 1 Sports and Race Betting Chapter 1—Beating the NFL ....................................................... 21 The Field ................................................................................. 22 How Can I Win Money Today? ......................................... 28 Westgate Supercontest...................................................... 29 How Can I Win Money Today? ......................................... 39 A Closer Look at Super Bowl Props ................................ 40 How Can I Win Money Today? ......................................... 48 Chapter 2—Baseball Been Berry Berry Good to Me ............. 51 The Grand Salami ................................................................. 54 x 20/20 Sports Betting Other Advantage-Play Props ............................................ 57 You Like to Talk About the Past, Don’t You? ............... 64 How Can I Win Money Today? ......................................... 65 Chapter 3—Wagering on Soft Sports ....................................... 73 Chapter 4—Sport of Kings ........................................................... 91 Big Brown at the Belmont ................................................. 94 How Can I Win Money Today? ......................................... 96 Chapter 5—In the Year 2525 ....................................................... 99 How Can I Win Money Today? ......................................105 Chapter 6—Fantasy Sports ........................................................107 How Can I Win Money Today? .......................................116 Part 2 Golf Chapter 7—My Sport of Choice................................................121 Finding Value ......................................................................127 Aside From Injuries, Are There Other Ways to Beat Golf? .........................146 How Can I Win Money Today? .......................................156 Chapter 8—Summer Lovin’ Had Me a Blast— PGA TOUR 2017 ........................................................................159 My Trip to Scotland ...........................................................161 Chapter 9—More Gambling Tales from The Links .............177 How Can I Win Money Today? .......................................201 Contents xi Part 3 Advantage Play Mindset and Lifestyle Chapter 10—Bad Times at Sports Book High ......................207 Chapter 11—Blackjack ................................................................225 Chapter 12—The Lottery ............................................................233 How Can I Win Money Today? .......................................242 Chapter 13—Jeopardy Contestants— Not as Smart as You Think! ...................................................243 How Can I Win Money Today! ........................................258 Chapter 14—Where My Paychecks Came From ..................259 Chapter 15—The Life of a Professional Gambler ...............271 European Travel .................................................................273 A Typical Day in the Life of a Professional Gambler ................................................279 What Do Others Think of My Occupation? ................282 Resources .........................................................................................287 The Cream of the Crop .....................................................287 New to the Market .............................................................289 Tournaments/Contests ....................................................291 About the Author ..........................................................................293 Author’s Note When I finished writing this book and was trying to come up with a title, I thought an attention-grabber, like Look, Ma, I Just Made A Million Bucks in my Underwear! Obviously, it was too … flippant to do the trick. Still, it’s an accurate depiction; I’ve made a million, and actually much more, gambling on sports. I’m certainly not filthy rich by any stretch of the imagina- tion, but I’m living way better than I ever dreamed possible prior to finding my niche in sports betting. My entire income over the last 20 years has come from gambling. In case you’re a little dubious, consider this. My target market for this book, professional gamblers and prospective professional gamblers, is small enough that if I make minimum wage when factoring in all the time I’ve invested in writing this book, I’ll be lucky. So I hope I’ve established that I have zero incentive to write anything but the truth. WHAT CAN YOU EXPECT TO FIND IN THESE PAGES? If you’re curious as to how a gambler can win money at sports betting day after day, month after month, and year 2 20/20 Sports Betting after year, while very rarely ever leaving the house, then this book is definitely for you. I’m someone who’s done that and in this book, I tell you exactly how. Elihu Feustel, in his book Conquering Risk, has me pegged perfectly. He mentioned that there are many “small market” players that make a decent living playing low limit stuff at a very high volume. I am one of those players. Feustal also stated that most of these players want to move up in the ranks and bet higher amounts. I am in a transition phase now, still depending on small markets as my bread and butter but also making much larger plays in various systems I am experimenting with. “Wiseguys” or savvy sports bettors will know immediately that my claims are legit. How? They’ll recognize that I have a knack for identifying positive-expectation plays (+EV). I iden- tify these “value” plays, then wager all I can on them. This is a winning formula. It’s impossible to lose long term when each wager placed has positive expectation. It’s a fact. If you have a coin that is weighted 53% heads and you call heads and flip it 15 times a day, you’ll win on most days. There are, of course, other days where you’ll take it on the chin. Over the span of a week, however, you’ll flip the coin 105 times and you’ll win practically every week. Over the course of a year, you’ll flip the coin more than 5,000 times and for all intents and purposes, it’s impossible to lose. I, ladies and gentlemen, have been flipping that coin again and again over the last 20 years and by the time you’re finished reading this book, you’ll have a pretty good idea of how positive-expectation plays in sports betting work. A few more clarifications before we start. This is a macro how-to-bet-sports book—predominantly Author’s Note 3 big-picture conceptual information. The idea is summed up in this book’s subtitle: “Think Like a Pro.” Of course, I discuss micro considerations throughout, but I don’t present in-depth analyses of win rates at different pointspreads, strategies for playing teaser cards, and the like. There are other books for that (and I tell you which ones they are). Rather, I explain how you need to think in order to profit. Once you grasp these fundamental concepts and use them as your basis for decision-making, the micro information you’ll acquire from various sources will become many times more powerful. This book contains an abundance of examples of bet- ting at offshore sports books via the Internet. Yes, I’m aware that the ease (and legality) of betting offshore has changed dramatically over the years. But that’s where I got started, so those are the references I use. It doesn’t matter. The concepts are the same for betting sports anywhere—offshore, the U.K., Mexico, Las Vegas; the emerging U.S. markets,