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The Politics of Climate in Developing Countries: the Case of Mexico

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The Politics of Climate in Developing Countries: the Case of Mexico THE POLITICS OF CLIMATE IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES: THE CASE OF MEXICO A Dissertation submitted to the Faculty of the Graduate School of Arts and Sciences of Georgetown University in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Government By Hilen G. Meirovich, M.A. Washington, DC April 10, 2014 Copyright 2014 by Hilen G. Meirovich All Rights Reserved ii THE POLITICS OF CLIMATE IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES: THE CASE OF MEXICO Hilen G. Meirovich, M.A. Thesis Advisor: R. Kent Weaver, PhD. ABSTRACT The 2014 Climate Change Performance Index Climate indicates that no country is doing enough to prevent dangerous climate change. Climate action is apparently a challenge for bureaucracies to implement. However despite holding no international obligations to undertake action on climate change Mexico has adopted domestic policy options that have decreased its GHG emissions trajectory slightly and in doing so has become a major recipient of international climate funding. I argue that this case contradicts common assumptions about climate policy being a single policy sector. Rather, climate policy is a construct of climate-sensitive actions that are taken within different sectors, driven by dynamics specific to those sectors. I examine these dynamics in the forestry, electricity generation, and transportation sectors. I employ qualitative techniques, including process tracing, to examine the adoption of climate-sensitive policy options, comparing these processes between cases, and testing hypotheses generated from previous literature. I synthesize the findings in a general framework that explains the conditions that produce climate-sensitive options in developing countries, as well as the role played by IFIs. I find there may be a variety of paths within a single country that may lead to climate- sensitive actions, and that these paths share two common characteristics: a) these actions respond to domestic problems and not necessarily to international commitments; b) they may not be the options with the greatest GHG emissions reductions, often because leaders seek to avoid blame iii for slowing development or imposing concentrated losses on specific groups. Additional conditions that affect the type of path are the level of authority at which the policy will be implemented, the use of international resources and need of legislative politics. Finally, national leaders promote the packaging of actions as an overall climate policy when they see an advantage to such action internationally and no costs at the domestic level. The findings not only contribute to a better understanding of the multiple forms that climate-sensitive policies and the politics of those policies can take, but also highlights possibilities for improving the policies of both domestic actors and IFIs to respond to the challenge of climate change. iv Acknowledgements As previous graduate students have done before me, I would like to thank the ‘village’ that supported me throughout these years of intellectual discovery. My dissertation advisor, Kent Weaver, who had the patience to accompany me all these years until I found my theoretical voice, knew when to push me and when to tolerate my absence, while I was busy engaging with climate policy. Without his insistence on me writing, I would still be doing research. I will be forever thankful. To John Bailey and Matthew Carnes, my committee members for reading my drafts and give feedback about ways to shape and strengthen the argument. I could have not done this project without the institutional support from the Inter- American Development Bank as it allowed me to spend the last few months on leave of absence to finish writing this dissertation. I especially thank Alexandre M. Rosa and Walter Vergara, from IDB for this invaluable opportunity. To Georgetown University for granting me the initial funding and allowing me to continue the research until today. The fieldwork and interviews I did were essential in putting together the story of climate policy presented in this dissertation. To the interviewees themselves, my profound gratitude for the time dedicated to me. Also, I thank Gabriel De Luca for helping me with some parts of the research. To my editor, Jacob Bathanti, who reviewed my drafts in detail and was accommodating to my needs and changing time schedule that I had for completing this project. To my co-workers and friends Amal-Lee Amin, Alberto Barreix, Raul Delgado, Ramon Espinasa, Gmelina Ramirez, and Ramiro Rios who patiently explained the ins and outs of each sector responding to all my incisive and returning questions with patience. Equally important, Gerard Alleng, Juan Carlos Gomez, Marcela Penaloza, Ana Rios, v Rosi Rodriguez, Luisa Fernanda Rodriguez merit special thanks as my commiserators during the most difficult months of writing. I especially thank Jennifer Doherty-Bigara, she buoyed me in my hardest time in these last years of research, accompanying me every weekend and always finding a source, an article or interesting data that I should not miss. My ‘policy girls’ Stella Chang, Laurie Choi, Meral Karan, Maria Saenz and Eulynn Shiu, who served variously as inspirations, exemplars, and sounding boards. Finally, I would like to thank the continuous and caring support of my friends Zayra Romo, Julian Casal, Sara Hormigo, Juan Marin, Jaime Garcia, Zoe Couacaud, Ana Maria Saiz, Ana Lucia Blanco, Joaquin Mercado, Michelle Farrell, Federico Brusa and Alejandra Ciuffolini. Throughout my life, my extended family “los Montrull,” and my brothers, Claudio and Ioni, and sister, Yael as well as my brother and sisters in law Mark, Gaby and Carina were steadfast in their support. My nieces and nephew, Maia, Dana, Sigui, Livi, Ilana and Alon are the reasons for seeking answers that can help us protect our planet, the only home we have. My parents, Carlos and Hilda, all words are insufficient to thank them for opening the world to me, instilling in me the intellectual curiosity and for inspiring me and pass on to me a strong sense of perseverance to accomplish my goals. Carlitos, Hilda, I owe you everything. Finally, I thank my partner, Juan Pablo, whose companionship, at times coaching, and always caring support during the last years turned the most daunting part of my education into the most exciting and wonderful one as well. HILEN G. MEIROVICH vi CONTENTS Chapter 1: Introduction ................................................................................................................... 1 The Problem ............................................................................................................................................. 2 My Argument in Brief .............................................................................................................................. 9 Theories and Approaches Explaining Action and Nonaction on Climate Change ................................ 11 Explanatory Framework and Hypotheses ............................................................................................... 30 Research Design ..................................................................................................................................... 35 Chapter 2: Mexican Climate Policy .............................................................................................. 42 Mexico in Comparative Perspective ....................................................................................................... 43 Climate Change Policy in Mexico and Climate Sensitive Actions ........................................................ 48 Mexico’s Climate Results ....................................................................................................................... 56 Chapter 3: Mexico’s Political System and Climate Change ......................................................... 59 The Mexican Policy Making Process ..................................................................................................... 62 Chapter 4: The International Dimension of National Climate Action .......................................... 83 The Climate Regime Complex ............................................................................................................... 87 Evolving Trends in Climate Finance ...................................................................................................... 94 Financing Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD) ........................ 104 Mexico’s Actions within the Climate Finance Regime ........................................................................ 106 Conclusions .......................................................................................................................................... 111 Chapter 5: Climate and Forest in Mexico: Avoiding Deforestation to Alleviate Rural Poverty 114 Context of Forestry Policy in Mexico .................................................................................................. 115 The Growth of Climate Change Concerns in Forestry Policy .............................................................. 126 The First PAN Administration and Forest Policy ................................................................................. 128 The Calderon Administration and the Branding of Forestry as Climate Change ................................. 143 Conclusions .........................................................................................................................................
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