WEEKLY REPORT 11 – 17 June 2020 Key Dynamics 2 The Caesar Act As the Caesar Act comes into force, fears of all-out economic collapse grow 2 Socio-Economic protests Growing discontent over socio- economic conditions leads to protests across the country 4 Idleb ceasefire Syrian, Russian forces step up strikes on Idleb, threatening future of ceasefire 5 Agriculture Latest SYP devaluation adds pressure on Dar’a’ struggling agriculture sector 7 Security Fourth Division responds aggressively to desertions in Dhameer MERCY CORPS Weekly Report 11-17 June 2020 > 1 fighting on the side of Damascus, and The Caesar Act individuals already under US sanctions with regards to Syria. While the first round of As the Caesar Act comes into force, sanctions targeted individuals and entities fears of all-out economic collapse grow related to reconstruction efforts, as well as leading officials and their family members, the On 17 June 2020, the first sanctions under the language in the act itself could allow for US Caesar Syria Civilian Protection Act, further, more expansive sanctions including on otherwise known as the ‘Caesar Act,’ came into key sectors of the Syrian economy such as force, with the US government imposing a total natural gas and petroleum production. of 39 designations under the act and Executive Order 13894. Although the impacts of the act will not be properly felt until after 17 June, there are The US Department of the Treasury imposed growing concerns in and outside Syria that the sanctions on 24 entities and individuals who Caesar Act will contribute to an all-out collapse “are actively supporting the corrupt of the country’s economy. The law is sufficiently reconstruction efforts of Syrian President broad that it could radically reconfigure Syria’s Bashar al-Assad.” Additional sanctions relations with key economic partners – not announced by the US State Department on 17 least Lebanon, whose banks have long served June also targeted several members of as an economic lifeline from Damascus to the president Bashar al-Assad’s inner circle and outside world. leading security officials – many of whom were already under US and/or EU sanctions. Asma al- Assad, wife of Assad, was subjected to US Socio-Economic Protests sanctions for the first time. Growing discontent over socio-economic The US government has promised there are conditions leads to protests across the more sanctions to come. In a statement US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo warned: “We country will continue this campaign in the coming Deteriorating socio-economic conditions across weeks and months to target individuals and the country, exacerbated by the upcoming businesses that support the Assad regime and implementation of the Caesar Act and the obstruct a peaceful, political resolution of the conflict.” Latest HAT > ISIS revival Named after a military police defector who fled Syria in 2013, smuggling out tens of thousands > Dynamics in northwest Syria of leaked images detailing industrial-level abuse inside the Syrian government’s detention > COVID-19 in KSA Syria facilities, the Caesar Act threatens sanctions against any ‘foreign person’ knowingly engaging > Security in southern Syria with the government of Syria or senior government officials, paramilitary organizations MERCY CORPS Weekly Report 11-17 June 2020 > 2 further depreciation of the Syrian pound, and the devaluation of the Syrian pound, caused a ripple effect of demonstrations across protests, which took place in areas including different zones of control. Idleb city (Idleb subdistrict) and Hazano (Maaret Tamsrin subdistrict), eventually took on In As-Sweida city, large demonstrations broke a more political tone as demonstrators called out as peaceful protestors challenged the for their right to return to their original areas in government’s response to worsening economic southern Idleb, now in government-held and financial conditions in the country. territory, and the release of detainees from Noteworthily, protests in Sweida were both Syrian government and Hay’at Tahrir Al- reminiscent of 2011’s peaceful protests in that Sham (HTS) prisons. anti-Assad slogans were chanted and calls for the downfall of the ‘regime’ were once more made, including demands on the release of detainees from Assad’s prisons. Protestors, in most cases, did not cover their faces to conceal their identities, and whereas initially the Syrian government did not interfere during the early days of the protests, it has since escalated its response. On 13 June, local reports indicated that a number of videos from the In former opposition-held Dar’a Al Balad, (Dar’a demonstrations were deleted from Facebook subdistrict), Jizeh (Jizeh subdistrict) and Jasim for ‘violating copyright’, pointing to the (Jasim subdistrict), protests also broke out on possibility of interference by the Syrian 11 and 12 June as demonstrators made similar government and its supporters online. Notably, calls for the downfall of the government, the peaceful demonstrators and activists from As- release of detainees, and called for the Sweida’s ‘We Want To Live’ campaign, which departure of Iranian forces and their proxies emerged out of the January socio-economic from Syria. Protestors also held up the flag of protests, were reportedly arrested on 15 June the Syrian revolution. Pro-government counter by intelligence officers, after a counter-protest protests in Dar’a city also occurred on 14 June, organized by the Ba’ath Party (alongside led by the Ba’ath Party. members of the pro-government Ba’ath As civilians across the country continue to Brigades militia), demonstrated in the same suffer the impact of the conflict, local square. Authorities arrested a total of 9 administrations’ mishandling of the economic activists in the scuffles that followed. crisis, as well as the looming sanctions to be Peaceful protests broke out across Idleb introduced under the Caesar Act, will be a governorate under the banner of ‘The direct cause for similar protests to continue Revolution is For All Syrians’, as demonstrators across all zones of control. In addition, stood in solidarity with As-Sweida in a ‘Jasmin protestors’ calls for a basic social contract and Revolution’ and also called for the downfall of justice exhibit that demands raised in 2011 the Syrian regime. While demonstrators were remain very much vital today. In As-Sweida, initially protesting over the economic situation further crackdowns by security forces are likely MERCY CORPS Weekly Report 11-17 June 2020 > 3 to continue. In Dar’a Al Balad, government safer areas of northern Idleb. This represents crackdowns are not likely to occur given the the second wave of displacements from the absence of Syrian government forces in the area this month, after a first wave took place on neighbourhood, while other areas the protests 2 June when the National Liberation Front and are occurring in the evening, are mobile, and Suqour al-Sham declared the east of Jabal al- protestors usually have masks on to hide their Zawiya a military zone from 3 June. This identities. decision followed repeated bombardments and the attempts to advance to these areas by the Idleb ceasefire Syrian government forces, which came in conjunction with the continuous military Syrian, Russian forces step up strikes on reinforcements to the region. The Response Coordination Group reported on 9 June that Idleb, threatening future of ceasefire more than 5,800 people were displaced in this Over the past week, renewed military first wave. escalations in areas of the southern Idleb countryside saw Syrian and Russian forces US-led coalition continues targeted conduct more than 20 airstrikes and 100 strikes against Al-Qaeda’s Hurras Ad-Din artillery bombardments. This new escalation could threaten the survival of the 5 March The International Collation killed Qasam al- ceasefire, brokered by Russia and Turkey. Urdoni and Bilal al-Yamani, two commanders in Turkey has not commented on the bombing. Al-Qaeda affiliate Hurras Ad-Din, by targeting their car with a drone strike on June 14. The The airstrikes took place after fighters from the strike continues a trend of US strikes against Wahareed al-Mu’meneen (Incite the Believers) the Al-Qaeda affiliate, at a time when hardline operation room attacked Syrian government Islamist forces in the northwest reorganize on forces located in Tanjarah and al-Fatatrah on 8 the ground. June, during which they managed to control the two villages for a few hours. Pro-government airstrikes subsequently targeted a convoy of Turkistan Islamic Party and Hurras Ad-Din fighters between Bara and Deir Sunbul Ehsem subdistrict in southern Idleb’s Jabal al-Zawiya region on 13 June, in addition to the villages of Ftireh, Sfuhen and Kafr Oweid (Kafr Nobol subdistrict), Alqahera (Ziyara subdistrict), Ein Laruz, Mozra, Balyun, Kansafra and Ablin (Ehsem subdistrict), leaving dead and wounded On 12 June, the most radical Islamic factions among the civilian population. operating in Idleb announced formation of the ‘Fa-Ethbato’ (So Be Steadfast) operations room As a result of this escalation, villages across comprised of Hurras Ad-Din, Jabhat Ansar Ad- Jabal al-Zawiya and northern Hama witnessed Din, Ansar Al-Islam, Liwa Al-Ansar fighters led new internal displacement of people towards by Abu Malik Al-Shami and Tanseqiyat Al-Jihad. MERCY CORPS Weekly Report 11-17 June 2020 > 4 This new operations room has not announced ceasefire, in spite of extensive efforts by Turkey its position regarding the 5 March ceasefire to maintain stability in Idleb by fulfilling the agreement or its areas of operation. It is not agreement’s conditions. clear if it will replace the Incite the Believers operations room, which already included Hurras Ad-Din, Jabhat Ansar Ad-Din and Ansar Agriculture Al-Islam, and previously included Ansar Al- Latest SYP devaluation adds pressure on Tawheeb (which announced its split with Incite struggling Dar’a agriculture sector the Believers on 3 March).