WEEKLY REPORT ​ ​ ​ 25 – 31 March, 2020 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Northeast Syria ● The Kurdish self-administration (KSA) announced additional mitigation measures for the spread of COVID-19 and implemented previously reported measures through its security apparatus across its territories, including IDP camps. The KSA and Government of Syria (GoS) also began preparing quarantine centers across Hospitals of Al-Hasakeh city. ● Screenings for symptoms of COVID-19 are not being comprehensively implemented at informal river crossings in KSA-held Deir-ez-Zor governorate as civilians are passing without being screened. Meanwhile, the Abu Kamal border crossing continued to allow Iranian militias to pass without screening them for symptoms of COVID-19. ● Islamic State (ISIS) prisoners attempted to escape from a covert prison in Al-Hasakeh city in Al-Hasakeh governorate and from Kisreh Prison in Kisreh town in Deir-ez-Zor governorate. Northwest Syria ● Despite the SSG’s denial of the presence of COVID-19 in the northwest, the SSG has increased its mitigation measures. It is highly likely that the spread of COVID-19 in Idleb and western Aleppo governorates would lead to a new humanitarian crisis, particularly due to the estimated 1.1 million IDPs residing in overcrowded camps, and the northwest’s crippled healthcare system which is currently ill-equipped to deal with such a crises. ● Local sources in Azaz city maintain that the public have not taken the measures seriously and the majority continue to gather in public spaces. ● The SIG’s Support Coordination Unit received 600 COVID-19 examination kits from the WHO. This is reportedly the first batch from a total of 2,000 kits promised. South and Central ● The GoS announced a partial curfew to take place all-over the country as an attempt to mitigate the spread of COVID-19. ● The GoS also implemented further mitigation measures and restrictions including halt of all transportation of citizens between governorates’ provincial centers. However, while mitigation measures are being implemented, the first official death from COVID-19 was recorded in Damascus city on March 29. ● In a series of events around Al-Qarayya, As-Sweida and Dar’a, ten civilians were killed (nine civilians from As-Sweida, one from Dar’a) and a number of others injured. While the situation seems to have been contained, the possibility of renewed tensions cannot be ruled out given the current lawlessness in southern Syria. ● Also, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR) reported an increase in ISIS activity in the Homs desert. This has included the killing of at least 367 GoS-affiliated forces, 67 members of Iranian-backed militias, 4 civilian gas field workers and 2 shepherds. Damascus/Rural Damascus 25 March; As an attempt to mitigate the spread of COVID-19, the Government of Syria announced a partial curfew to take place all-over the country. Curfew hours were set from 18:00 to 06:00 every day effective immediately. The curfew exempted workers of public services, foodstuffs truck drivers, health workers, SARC staff and all military and security personnel. 26 March; The Damascus Rural Health Director announced that 124 people were released from the quarantine center at the Damascus International Airport hotel after testing negative for COVID-19. 27 March; As further mitigation against the spread of COVID-19, the GoS announced the halt of all transportation of citizens between governorates’ provincial centers and all regions and rural areas at all times effective at 14:00 on Sunday 29 March and until further notice. The decision excluded transportation of goods and personnel of essential production sectors, as well as health workers, military and security personnel. 28 March; The Ministry of Education decided to further extend the closure of public and private schools and universities until 16 April. 29 March; the Ministry of Health announced the first death caused by COVID-19 within the country. A woman died on entry into the Al-Assad University Hospital in Damascus city, with the cause of death revealed on receipt of test results. 30 March; the Ministry of Health announced a second death attributed to COVID-19, with no further details released. On the same day, the Ministry of Justice announced an extension to the closure of courts and judicial institutions until 16 April. 31 March; the Ministry of Interior extended the closure of all offices of civil affairs services, the criminal record, immigration and traffic until 16 April. Date Announced Announced Total Total Total Total Active Cases/Daily Deaths/Daily Cases Deaths Recovered Cases Mar 22 1 -- 1 -- -- 1 Mar 23 -- -- 1 -- -- 1 Mar 24 -- -- 1 -- -- 1 Mar 25 4 -- 5 -- -- 5 Mar 26 -- -- 5 -- -- 5 Mar 27 -- -- 5 -- -- 5 Mar 28 -- -- 5 -- -- 5 Mar 29 5 1 10 1 -- 9 Mar 30 -- 1 10 2 -- 8 Mar 31 -- -- 10 2 -- 8 Analysis/forecasting: Despite the extensive measures taken by GoS to mitigate the spread of COVID-19, further impact of the pandemic remains uncertain. As the WHO Syria representative stated on 31 March, the country has just reached the beginning of the pandemic’s upward curve meaning the coming two weeks might witness a skyrocketing increase of COVID-19 cases. Concerns regarding the accuracy of current official figures and the ability of the Syrian healthcare system to contain the virus have also been expressed by Mark Lowcock, UN humanitarian chief, in an address to the UN Security Council on 30 March. It was noted that only around half the country’s hospitals and primary healthcare facilities were fully functional at the end of 2019, meaning insufficient facilities to deal with a pandemic with the potential scale of COVID-19. Additionally, the SYP 100bn (approximately $75m) dedicated by the Ministry of Finance to fund the GoS’s measures to combat the spread of the virus is considered to be low in comparison with other neighbouring countries. Lebanon for example, has dedicated more than double the amount. ● 29 March; General Command of the Syrian armed forces issued two administrative orders ending the retention and the possibility of future summoning for reserve army officers who have completed three years or more of actual service, as well as for lower-ranked personnel who have completed their actual reserve service of seven years or more. The administrative order however conditioned the release of medical military personnel to the Medical Services Department’s approval, which might be due to possible need of their skills in the combat against the spread of COVID-19 among the army. ​ Homs ● 31 March; An Israeli air forces (IAF) missile attack targeted Al-Shoayrat Syrian army position east of Homs city. Syrian State TV said the warplanes fired the missiles while flying in Lebanese airspace adding that Syrian air defense systems successfully engaged and destroyed them. No casualties have been reported, and the IAF has not confirmed the attack. ● 31 March; Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR) reported on an increase on ISIS activity in the Homs desert noting that since 24 March, SOHR documented the killing of at least 367 GoS-affiliated forces, 67 members of Iranian-backed militias, 4 civilian gas field workers and 2 shepherds, all attributed to ISIS attacks. Dar‘a/As-Sweida/Quneitra 25–27 March; a criminal group in Al-Qarayya town, As-Sweida governorate, kidnapped two young men from Dar’a along with their cow-loaded truck. In an attempt to stabilize the situation, members of local armed factions in Al-Qarayya reportedly tried to arrest an individual thought to be responsible for the kidnapping of the two young men. However, the man killed himself using a hand grenade he was carrying. 27–28 March; in an apparent increase in tensions around Al-Qarayya, As-Sweida and Dar’a, three gunmen riding motorbikes from the direction of Busra Al-Sham entered Al-Qarayya, attempted the kidnapping of three civilians, failed, then shot at the victims’ vehicle. The attack reportedly resulted in the killing of one and the injury of the two others. Soon after the attack, local gunmen and local members of various armed factions from both As-Sweida and Dar’a headed to a location west of Al-Qarayya and engaged in five-hour armed clashes, reportedly resulting in the killing of nine civilians from As-Sweida, one from Dar’a, and the injury of many others. Additionally, six civilians from As-Sweida were taken hostage and two teenagers were reported missing, assumed kidnapped. A meeting was held in Al-Qarayya between local political, military and religious figures and GoS and Russian government officials in order to reduce tensions. The meeting ended with Russian officials promising to mediate the situation and secure the safe return of the hostages. However, shortly after the meeting, information of the killing of the six hostages reached Al-Qarayya, threatening further escalation of the situation. Later in the afternoon, the bodies of the six hostages were sent to Al-Qarayya, GoS forces established several checkpoints to create a buffer zone, the two missing teenagers were released from Busra Al-Sham and another mediation meeting was held. Analysis/forecasting: While the situation seems to have been contained, the possibility of renewed tensions cannot be ruled out as long as no concrete actions are taken to end lawlessness, prevalence of guns among civilians, and the kidnappings in southern Syria. The dilemma remains that local communities are refusing to let GoS forces enter their towns and cities and restore their security. When considering the escalations in tensions in south Syria throughout the past few weeks, it is noteworthy that they have in fact allowed GoS forces to further expand its presence and reinforce its position. This might suggest the GoS is using (or inciting) such incidents in order to justify expansion.