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Communicating, tailoring and using climate projections in adaptation planning Susanne Lorenz Submitted in accordance with the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy The University of Leeds School of Earth and Environment September 2015 - ii - The candidate confirms that the work submitted is her own, except where work which has formed part of jointly-authored publications has been included. The contribution of the candidate and the other authors to this work has been explicitly indicated below. The candidate confirms that appropriate credit has been given within the thesis where reference has been made to the work of others. This copy has been supplied on the understanding that it is copyright material and that no quotation from the thesis may be published without proper acknowledgement. The right of Susanne Lorenz to be identified as Author of this work has been asserted by her in accordance with the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988. © 2015 The University of Leeds and Susanne Lorenz - iii - PhD Publications Parts of this thesis have been published in the following: International Journals Lorenz, S., Dessai, S., Paavola, J. & Forster, P. M. 2015. The communication of physical science uncertainty in European National Adaptation Strategies. Climatic Change. 123 (1), pp. 143-155. (doi: 10.1007/s10584-013-0809-1) Lorenz, S., Dessai, S., Paavola, J. & Forster, P. M. 2015. Tailoring the visual communication of climate projections for local adaptation practitioners in Germany and the UK. Philosophical Transactions A. 373 (2055), pp. 1-17. (doi: 10.1098/rsta.2014.0457) Lorenz, S., Dessai, S., Paavola, J. & Forster, P. M. Adaptation planning and the use of climate change projections in local government in England and Germany. Regional Environmental Change. [UNDER REVIEW] I am lead author on the above articles and designed the research questions, the methodology, and collected and analysed the data. The papers were co-authored with my supervisors whose roles were in the recommendations of revisions and edits to manuscripts. - iv - Rationale for thesis by alternative format This thesis looks at three distinct levels of analysis as part of the question as to how the communication, tailoring and use of climate projections can be improved for more effective adaptation planning decision support. The levels of analysis are national level, local level and individual level. Each part of this multi-level analysis has involved different research methods and different empirical data. Each set of methods, data collection and results has required rationalisation and grounding within the relevant literature, which has been achieved within the three papers more efficiently than within a traditional monograph. The thesis consists of an introductory chapter setting out the context and rationale for the research, placing it within the wider literature, outlining the overarching research strategy and contributions to the fields of study, rationalising of the multi- methods approach, and detailing the data collection and case studies. The three empirical chapters are the three papers listed on the previous page. Paper 1 sets out the findings of the communication of physical science uncertainty within national adaptation plans, thus setting the overarching frame of communication at the national level. Paper 2 provides insights into the challenges of communicating and tailoring climate projections to individual adaptation practitioners. Lastly, paper 3 examines the use and usability of climate projections for local adaptation planning, specifically analysing local governments within England and Germany. These three results chapter are followed by a discussion and conclusion that brings together insights from the three papers and highlights lessons learned and the challenges found for communicating, tailoring and using climate projections for adaptation planning across the different levels highlighted in the papers (national, local and individual). This last chapter also reflects on the research approach, limitations to the research conducted and possible future research directions. - v - Acknowledgements This research was supported and made possible by a whole range of different people, who all deserve my sincere gratitude. Firstly, I would like to thank NERC for providing the funding that allowed me to undertake this research in the first place. Furthermore, I would like to thank the School of Earth and Environment and the World Universities Network for providing additional support and funding. I am very grateful to my supervisors Suraje Dessai, Piers Forster and Jouni Paavola for their tireless support; this thesis would not be what it is without all of their advice, comments and recommendations over the past years. I also would like to particularly thank Suraje Dessai for his continued efforts in countering my concerns that I am a ‘Jack of all trades and master of none’. The people in my research groups in both SRI and ICAS also deserve a big thank you; all of your feedback, thoughts and ideas throughout the research process were very much appreciated. In particular, I would like to say thank you to Lawrence Jackson and Andrea Taylor for imparting some of their seemingly infinite statistical wisdom to me along the way. I would not have been able to conduct this research without the support and participation of the many adaptation practitioners in Germany and the UK that took part in my study. I am very grateful to all of them for their time, thoughts and insights, giving me such a rich set of data to base my study on. Particular thanks go to Jen Atkinson from Climate North East and Alex Hopkinson from Climate East Midlands, who provided so many helpful comments and thoughts especially in the earlier stages of this research. I count myself very lucky to have an amazing bunch of family and friends around me, whose support, friendship and love has made all the difference along the way. Thank you to everyone in SRI who has kept me company on this journey. Sarah, Beth, Ellie, Kate, Rachel, Jami, Harriet and Ross, thank you for all the teas, coffees, insightful comments and glasses of wine, accompanied by a good dose of sarcasm. It is thanks to my friends in Leeds, that I have felt at home here all this time. Particular thanks go to Sam and Sam, Stephen and Jo for being with me from the beginning of my time ‘up North’ and for making me want to come back to Leeds in the first place. Sam, thank you for tirelessly striving to provide me with original German jokes and your continued offers to feed me if needed. I also do not know what I would have done without my wonderful teammates at the University of Leeds Handball Club. You are my favourite collection of Vikings - vi - (literally and metaphorically) – Astrid, Anna, Laura, Lena, Kamilla, Kath, Kristin, Magda, Mara, Mimi, Natalia and Thea – thank you for all the fun memories on and off the court! Thank you as well to Stella, for your pain inflicting hands and that yet always seem to be able to fix all aches and pains eventually to keep me fit enough to play. Many people have made the UK home away from home and I want to say thank you to all of them for everything they have done. Andrew, Eli, Finlay, Christine, Peter, Sue, Jeff, Craig, Talie and Becca, thank you for being the wonderful people you are and for giving me a sense of home! I am very lucky to have a wonderful set of friends and family in Germany as well that deserve a big thank you. To all my friends at home I’m so glad that the distance has not made any difference to our friendship. Wiebi, thanks particularly to you for not stopping to laugh at my German and for all the other laughs along the way! To my family - Dana, Dirk, Claudi, Karin, Julius, Lotte, Ulla, Olga and Uli – and to those of you that have been like family to me over the years, Steffi, Anne and Ralf – I want to say that I’m very fortunate to have you all around, thank you for being there for me! Above all thank you to my parents for having given me my roots and everything I needed to get here, I think this would have made you very happy. Lastly, the biggest thank you goes to my wonderful better half. Dan, I don’t know how you have put up with it and with me along this journey. You - with all of your love, support and confidence in me combined with all the laughs, Portsmouth updates, tasty salmon dishes, rabbit pictures, cheering by the side of the court and great proofreading skills - have made all of this possible. I could not have done it without you Lieblings! - vii - Abstract Planning for adaptation to climate change is often considered to be more effective if grounded on a solid evidence base and recognisant of relevant climate projections. How these climate projections are communicated, perceived and used is thus a key part of the adaptation process. The process of creating communications and communication tools that are considered usable by the intended users and therefore considered to be effective decision support is impacted by a range of complex factors that need to be considered in conjunction with each other. The aim of this thesis is to examine the challenges for the communication, tailoring and use of climate projections for adaptation planning in Germany and the UK, both considered leaders on climate change adaptation, and suggest how cross-level insights from the individual, local and national scale can help to advance a more comprehensive understanding of the usability of communication tools for adaptation planning. This research adopts a multi-level perspective by exploring scientific uncertainty communication in national level adaptation strategies, usability of climate projections for local adaptation planning and comprehension and use of tailored information at the individual level.

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