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The Henry Fund Henry B. Tippie College of Business Willow Miller [[email protected]] Monster Beverage Corp. October 19, 2020 Consumer Staples – Energy Drinks Stock Rating BUY Investment Thesis Target Price $90-$95 Monster Beverage Corp. (Monster) is a BUY because we see an upside of Henry Fund Adjusted DCF $80 12.5% between our target price ($90) and the market price ($80). Henry Fund DDM $97 Consequently, we believe that Monster’s price to earnings premium Relative Multiple $57 (39.5x) is warranted given the attractive nature of the company’s Price Data business model, debt structure, profitability, and growth prospects. Current Price $80.8 52wk Range $50.6 – $87.1 Drivers of Thesis Consensus 1yr Target $88 • We project topline to grow by a 10% 5 year CAGR, which is stronger Key Statistics than industry (7.3% 5 year CAGR9) growth, since we believe Monster’s Market Cap (B) $43.2 “healthy” product launches and continued international expansion, Shares Outstanding (M) $527.6 combined with dominating international market share, will drive long Institutional Ownership 65.7% term growth Beta 0.98 • Monster has a more attractive business model, compared to its public Dividend Yield 0.0% peer group, with asset light operations and zero long term debt, Est. 5yr CAGR Growth 8.0% which enables strong cash flows Price/Earnings (TTM) 39.5 • Soft beverage branded energy drinks have failed to capture Price/Earnings (FY1) 33.5 significant market share from Monster, and we expect this trend to Price/Sales (TTM) 8.3 continue since consumers develop brand loyalty Price/Book (mrq) 8.2 Risks to Thesis Profitability • Demand for Monster beverages in convenience stores and gas Operating Margin 33.9% stations lower than anticipated due to the COVID-19 pandemic Net Profit Margin 26.6% • Long term growth challenged if international growth declines as a Return on Assets (TTM) 22.9% result of international preferences in previously unexposed to Return on Equity (TTM) 28.5% countries MNST Industry Sector • Long term growth challenged if the FDA passes age restriction 50 regulations on the energy industry, in response to recent legislation 40 Sources: Bloomberg, FactSet on highly concentrated caffeinated products due to safety concerns 39.5 30 28.0 Earnings Estimates 20 26.5 26.3 24.6 Year 2017 2018 2019 2020E 2021E 2022E 20.1 18.3 10 16.5 15.0 Consensus $1.40 $1.81 $2.03 $2.26 $2.55 $2.90 HF est. $1.40 $1.81 $2.03 $2.30 $2.56 $2.98 0 Growth 17.6% 29.2% 12.2% 13.3% 11.3% 16.4% P/E ROE EV/EBITDA 12 Month Performance Company Description MNST S&P 500 60% Monster Beverage Corp. was founded on 40% April 25, 1990 and is headquartered in Corona, CA. Monster Beverage Corp.1 20% engages in the development, marketing, sale and distribution of energy drink beverages. It 0% operates through the following segments: -20% Monster Energy Drinks, Strategic Brands and Other. -40% O N D J F M A M J J A S Important disclosures appear on the last page of this report. COMPANY DESCRIPTION 10.27% 5 year CAGR for the monster energy drink segment. See the figure below for the forecasted segment. Monster Beverage Corp. manufacturers and distributes flavored energy products on a global level to third parties Monster Energy Drink Brands who bottle and distribute Monster’s energy drinks. Monster is primarily exposed to the Americas and 8,000 produces most of its revenue in the United States. The 6,000 company derives revenue from Monster Energy Drinks, Strategic Brands, and Other segments. The Monster 4,000 Energy Drink segment generates approximately 90% of the Millions ($) 2,000 revenue for the company, while the Strategic Brands 0 1 generate 9% of the revenue. 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Years Monster Energy Drinks The Monster Energy drink segment is comprised of Source: Model Monster Energy products and Reign Total Body Fuel products, and has domestic and international exposure. Strategic Brands Overall, we believe that this segment is the most important component of Monster since it is profitable and The Strategic brand segment was more impacted by the houses the company’s growth potential. The Monster COVID-19 pandemic than the Monster Energy drinks energy drinks segment was adversely impacted by the segment. Net sales for the company’s strategic brands pandemic, as discussed later in the “COVID-19 Impact” segment, which includes brands acquired from The Coca- Cola Company in 2015,8 decreased by 24.7% to $59.6 section. For Q2 2020, the Monster energy drink segment 2 only increased by 0.8% to $1.03 billion.2 Prior to the million in the 2019 second quarter. Management cites pandemic, this segment experienced YTD quarterly double that this segment’s international exposure was the reason digit growth. for the sharp decline in sales due to extended lock downs. However, we see that this segment has been Consequently, we assume that the Monster energy drink underperforming since the 2015 acquisition and was an segment will return to strong quarterly growth past opportunistic sale on Coca-Cola’s part. FY2020, driven by case volume sales and average sales price per case. We forecast seasonal case volume growth, As a result, we forecast adverse effects of COVID-19 between 1% and 4% each quarter. We also expect pandemic in the latter half of FY2020 and the beginning management to hike the sales price of each case, each half of FY2021. We price in the combined adverse effects fourth quarter by 3% to 4%, based on historical price of the pandemic and historical underperformance (-6% to increases. Within these growth rates, we roughly price in -3.5%) in the case growth driver for the next two forward international expansion at a granular level in both the years. Past FY2023, the segment decreases at a quarter volume growth section and the average case sale section, rate between -1.4% to -1%, in line with historical decline. since we assume that growth will resemble the past few Additionally, we price in that the average price of the years as Monster has expanded internationally. strategic brands, which includes Monster’s “affordable” product line, are under half the price as the Monster Lastly, we choose not to price in the anticipated launch of Energy drink segment.1 Our assumptions produce a -2.31% a hard seltzer beverage, which management hinted at in 5 year CAGR for the strategic brands segment. See the the 2Q earnings call, as we do not have enough figure on the next page for the forecasted segment. information at this time. But, we assume that a launch of a hard seltzer or even a collaboration based partnership, with an established hard seltzer brand, will inspire growth similar to the successful 2019 launch of Reign and previous new product launches.7 Our assumptions produce a Page 2 historically decreased as a percentage of sales. We believe Monster Strategic Brands that operating expenses have decreased as Monster 400 Beverage Corp. has scaled up and has benefited from its distribution partnership with Coca-Cola Company.8 We 300 forecast operating expenses growing by -0.74% each 200 quarter between Q3FY2020 and Q4 2024. Below is a table that shows the impact of the decreases expenses as a Millions ($) 100 percentage of sales on net profit margin. 0 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 Year Net Profit Margin Years 2020 28.89% 2021 30.51% Source: Model 2022 30.67% 2023 30.80% Cost Structure Analysis 2024 30.83% Monster Beverage Corp. has two main expense accounts: Source: Model cost of sales and operating expenses. Cost of sales includes cost of raw materials as well as in-house handling and Balance Sheet Analysis shipping fees. Operating expenses include distribution, We believe that Monster Beverage has a strong balance marketing, and other operating expenses. We expect that sheet between zero long term debt and substantial as Monster Beverage gains economies of scale, in liquidity. As a result, even if the company is more adversely international markets, the company’s international per impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic than management unit costs will decrease and be at the level as domestic per 1 guidance/expectation, we believe that the company will unit expenses. Note, management does not provide have little problem servicing extra and unexpected granular details for each segment’s per unit costs; they expenses. merely cite that international costs for both segments are more expensive than domestic costs, at this point. Two Monster has zero long term debt. The company uses its scenarios where we believe that costs can decrease cash balance working capital line of credit that is similar to include the company’s 2019 acquisition of a an interest-bearing liability but not treated as leverage for manufacturing plant in Ireland, as discussed in the accounting purposes. According to the 2019 annual report, “International Expansion” subsection, which should lower the line of credit has a $15.0 million cap. At December 31, global shipping costs. Additionally, we expect that the 2019, the interest rate on borrowings under the line of strategic brands segment will continue to underperform credit was 5.5%.1 Currently, the company had no amounts and decrease as a percentage of revenue, and thereby outstanding on this line of credit. drive margin expansion since costs per case in the strategic brands exceed cost per case in monster energy drinks Besides debt, liquidity looks good for Monster. As of the segment. company last Q2 earnings release in June 30, 2020, the company had $921.3 million in cash and cash equivalents, We price in this story by assuming that most of the cost $250.8 million in short-term investments and $2.1 million decreases related to in-house handling and shipping, at in long-term investments.2 Management does not expect the international level, have been captured in the last this liquidity to be tapped into due to the COVID-19 couple quarters, so we use FY2020 Q1 and Q2 data to pandemic.
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