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Home , Michigan Senate, Stephanie Bice

2020 POST-ELECTION REPORT

Executive Summary

⇒ Presidential Race: Too Close to Call ⇒ Republicans Likely Hold Senate: GA, ME, MI, NC: Undecided ⇒ Democrats Keep House: new division: approx. 226D (possible net loss of 7) ⇒ Governor’s results: R’s +1: new division: 27R-23D ⇒ GA Special Senate Election Headed to January 5 Runoff ⇒ Networks Incorrectly Projected Democrats to Gain in House

Last night’s national election, as predicted, looks to be headed to political overtime.

The presidential race won’t be decided for more than a day, and possibly not until all ballots are received and counted in Pennsylvania. The state’s post-election ballot reception deadline is Friday, November 6th, at 5:00 pm.

It appears that former Vice President Joe Biden (D) has the inside track to unseat the President, but Mr. Trump still has a narrow path to victory.

It is likely that the Republicans have held the Senate majority despite what appears to be a close loss at the top of the ticket. Defending 13 of the most vulnerable 16 Senate seats, the GOP may break even. Converting Alabama and leading in offsets the loss of seats in Arizona and Colorado. Four races remain undecided.

Republicans had a much better night in the House than expected. With 43 races still uncalled, a reasonable projection suggests the Democrats will return to the House with a majority margin approximately seven seats less than in the current Congress. This would make the new majority 226D-209R, and certainly put House control front and center for the 2022 election cycle.

In the 11 Governor’s races, we saw one state flip from Democrat to Republican, the open Montana race that completed a Republican sweep of the top four statewide offices. At-Large Rep. Greg Gianforte (R) was elected the state’s new Governor replacing term-limited Gov. Steve Bullock (D) who lost the Senate race to incumbent Steve Daines (R).

Polling and predictions generally proved unreliable. Once more, the big leads projected for the Democratic presidential nominee in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin did not materialize, while cumulative polling projections did correctly forecast Arizona and potentially Georgia. For the fourth consecutive major statewide race in Florida, the overwhelming number of pollsters failed to correctly project the winner.

It appears the cumulative polling community is potentially wrong in several Senate races including North Carolina, Maine, and the Michigan margin even if Sen. (D) rebounds to win. They also consistently under-estimated Georgia Sen. David Perdue’s electoral strength.

The media projection early in the evening of Democrats gaining seats in the House also proved incorrect.

Presidential Race

President Trump losing Arizona may have cost him the election. It was one of his five core states, and a must win. He is now forced to claim two of the three outstanding Great Lakes states, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Mr. Trump has a tenuous lead in Michigan, has dropped behind in Wisconsin by a small number of votes, and holds a relatively substantial lead of almost 700,000 votes in Pennsylvania. All of the states, however, have large numbers of votes remaining to be counted.

The President also has tenuous leads with ballots to count in North Carolina and Georgia. His chances appear good to hold NC, but he could fall behind in Georgia when all of the votes are counted. Losing either of these states will cost him the election.

Based upon the 2016 electoral map, President Trump can give up 36 electoral votes and still win the election. This means, he can only lose one of the remaining five states (not including Alaska because Mr. Trump has a substantial lead there and should clinch the state) in order to win the election.

The national popular vote count shows the President trailing Mr. Biden by just over 2 million votes, or less than two full percentage points, a much smaller margin than pollsters routinely predicted. The popular vote spread will likely expand in Mr. Biden’s favor when California, in particular, fully reports.

Should President Trump lose, it will likely because of two major factors. First, COVID proved disastrous to the incumbent’s political fortunes. It robbed him of his strongest issue for re-election: a roaring economy, which he had until the virus caused commerce to almost fully shut down for a period of months. Secondly, his handling of the issue likely caused a decline in the 65 year and older voting segment, a group that strongly backed him in 2016.

Secondly, his failure to re-capture more of the female segment was also a hampering blow, and even an improvement among minority voters could not fully off-set the political damage.

U.S. Senate

Republicans appear to have held their Senate majority and did so with victories in what could prove to be 11 of their 13 top defense states. They defeated one Democratic incumbent, Alabama Sen. Doug Jones, and are in position to oust Michigan Sen. Gary Peters, though the final count won’t be known there for some time. Currently, Sen. Peters trails challenger John James by over 118,000 votes, a margin of just about 2.6 percentage points. Approximately 85% of the state’s ballots have been tabulated.

Democrats successfully defeated Sens. Martha McSally (R) and Cory Gardner (R) in Arizona and Colorado, respectively. A James victory would likely keep the Senate majority at 53R-47D. Otherwise, the Republicans would immediately drop one seat.

Two others, Sens. David Perdue (R-GA) and Susan Collins (R-ME), could find themselves in political overtime. Both Georgia and Maine have majority victory laws, meaning all candidates must secure majority support before victory can be claimed.

It is likely that both Sens. Perdue and Collins will finish first but exceeding 50% remains in question. In Georgia, not securing the majority figure would send the race into a January 5th runoff election with second place finalist Jon Ossoff (D). Maine requires a Ranked Choice Voting system that means the last place finishers’ ballots that ranked him first are found and then their second choice is added to the final total. This process continues until one candidate attains the majority plateau. If Perdue and Collins eventually win, the more substantial GOP majority will be secured.

Individual Results and Synopsis

Describes the competitive states in more detail:

Alabama

Tommy Tuberville (R) Defeats Sen. Doug Jones (D) – GOP Conversion

Alaska

Sen. Dan Sullivan (R) Re-elected

Arizona

Mark Kelly (D) Defeats Appointed Sen. Martha McSally (R) – Dem Conversion

Colorado

John Hickenlooper (D) Defeats Sen. Cory Gardner (R) – Dem Conversion

Georgia-A

Sen. David Perdue (R) Leading – Final Count May Force him to Runoff Election

Georgia-B – Special Election – Runoff – January 5, 2021

Appointed Sen. Kelly Loeffler (R) and Democrat Raphael Warnock Advance to Runoff

Iowa

Sen. Joni Ernst (R) Re-elected

Kansas - Open

Rep. Roger Marshall (R) Holds Open Seat for GOP

Kentucky

Sen. Mitch McConnell (R) Re-elected

Maine

Sen. Susan Collins (R) Leading – Looks to Finish First; May be Forced to Ranked Choice Voting

Michigan

Sen. Gary Peters (D) Trailing Challenger John James (R) – Large Number of Mail Ballots Remain

Minnesota

Sen Tina Smith (D) Re-elected

Montana

Sen. Steve Daines (R) Re-elected

New Hampshire

Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D) Re-elected

New Mexico - Open

Rep. Ben Ray Lujan (D) Holds Open Seat for Dems

North Carolina

Sen. Thom Tillis (R) Leads – Has Declared Victory, but Not Projected

South Carolina

Sen. Lindsey Graham (R) Re-elected

Tennessee - Open

Ex-Ambassador Bill Hagerty (R) Holds Open Seat for GOP

Texas

Sen. John Cornyn (R) Re-elected

Virginia

Sen. Mark Warner (D) Re-elected

Wyoming - Open

Ex-Rep. Cynthia Lummis (R) Holds Open Seat for GOP

The parties held seats in the following races:

Tom Cotton (R-AR) Christopher Coons (D-DE) Jim Risch (R-ID) Dick Durbin (D-IL) Bill Cassidy (R-LA) Ed Markey (D-MA) Cindy Hyde-Smith (R-MS) Ben Sasse (R-NE) Jeanne Shaheen (D-NH) Cory Booker (D-NJ) (R-OK) Jeff Merkley (D-OR) Jack Reed (D-RI) Mike Rounds (R-SD) Shelley Moore Capito (R-WV)

U.S. House

The House races provided the biggest surprise of the night, and even the media routinely projected a Democratic net gain of seats early in the evening. The opposite, however, occurred.

At this point, it appears that eight seats have switched party representation, two going from Republican to Democrat (North Carolina redistricting), and six from Democrat to Republican.

The GOP candidates held 14 vulnerable House seats in the face of strong Democratic opposition, while seven Democrats won close races of their own. Another 43 contests have not been officially called. Of the 43, Republicans lead in 29 and Democrats, 14. One additional seat, LA-5, is headed for a December 5th runoff election because no one reached the 50% mark. The seat is solidly Republican, and it is possible that two members of the GOP advance to the runoff.

Should the leading party candidate eventually win their particular seat, Republicans could gain an additional 11 seats, but such is unlikely to happen. A more realistic number will be a net gain of approximately 7 seats for the GOP. Such an outcome would cut the Democratic majority from 233 seats to 226, and make the party division, 226D-209R.

House Conversions – At This Writing

Democrat to Republican:

FL-26: Mayor Carlos Gimenez (R) defeats Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (D) FL-27: Journalist (R) ousts Rep. Donna Shalala (D) MN-7: Ex-Lt. Gov. defeats Rep. Collin Peterson (D) NM-2: Ex-St. Rep. (R) unseats Rep. Xochitl Torres Small (D) OK-5: St. Sen. Stephanie Bice (R) ousts Rep. (D) SC-1: St. Rep. (R) defeats Rep. Joe Cunningham (D)

Democrats gained Republican seats in the following instances:

NC-2: Ex-St. Rep. Deborah Ross (D) converts open Raleigh area seat NC-6: College Trustee (D) converts open Greensboro area CD

Too Close to Call:

43 other seats have not yet been called. Updates will be provided when those races are concluded.

Governors

Eleven gubernatorial offices were on the ballot last night, and ten re-elected the current incumbent or kept the Governor’s mansion under the same party control. Incumbents were re-elected in Delaware, Indiana, New Hampshire, North Carolina, North Dakota, Vermont, Washington, and West Virginia.

Missouri Gov. Mike Parson (R), who ascended to the Governorship when incumbent Eric Greitens (R) resigned, won a full term in his own right.

Open seat contest went Republican in Utah and Montana. In the latter, at-large Rep. Greg Gianforte (R-Bozeman) converted the position for the GOP.

Political Overtime

The electoral process has undergone great change for the 2020 election, mostly due to COVID-19, and in many instances change proponents used the pandemic to achieve long-term election law alteration goals. Regardless of the reasons, all but six states yielded some significant change in their voting process and one of the half-dozen, Texas, implemented changes that were later reversed by a court.

Most of the modifications revolve around expanding the absentee ballot program, which resulted in more voting-by-mail. A total of 21 states have adopted, mostly by court order and not through the legislative process, a post-election ballot reception period, meaning votes will be coming into county processing centers after the election. How long after? It depends on the individual state election calendars and late court rulings that were still altering deadlines well into October. The accompanying chart below illustrates the states that are allowing post-election votes.

All of the post-election ballot states are doing so with the caveat that the ballot be postmarked on November 3rd, Election Day, or the day before in the case of North Dakota, Ohio, and Utah.

Likely a point of contention surrounding post-election ballot challenges to late arriving ballots will be the postal systems and regulations.

According to the postal regulations, quoting from the Post Office handbook:

“Postmarks are not required for mailings bearing a permit, meter, or precanceled stamp for postage, nor to pieces with an indicia applied by various postage evidencing systems.”

Therefore, since many of the mailed ballot classifications, if not a majority, will fall into one of the aforementioned categories, it may not be possible to determine when the ballot actually was mailed, meaning we will see challenges and counter-challenges over a multitude of cast votes, and likely lawsuits and counter-suits in the close presidential race. Also, the Michigan Senate contest and potentially 43 House races are embroiled in political overtime situations, meaning the procedural changes affect much more than just the presidential race.

All-mail, or mostly mail voting, first began in Oregon back in the 2000 election. Therefore, the Beaver State officials have had 20 years of experience dealing with implementing mail voting.

Oregon, and Colorado, another principally mail-voting state, require all ballots to be received the day of the election. California and Washington, the other two regular virtual-mail states, allow a post-election ballot reception period. This year, California has even extended the final acceptance deadline to November 20th, longer than any other state.

In the primary, states that allowed post-election ballot reception were the ones that had processing problems. New York held its primary on June 23rd and did not finish their count until the middle of August. Further primary problems relating to mail voting and the acceptance of post-election ballots occurred in Pennsylvania, Maryland, Georgia, Kentucky, and Nevada, among others.

In their various rulings, most judges either did not look to, or rejected, the Oregon mail model. Some appellate courts, notably those in Wisconsin and Michigan, may have followed the Oregon model when they rejected lawsuits that called for the adoption and expansion of a post-election ballot reception period. Because of the rulings in those two aforementioned states, all votes are required to be received before the polls close.

The list of states allowing a post-election ballot reception period are included on the chart in the attached PowerPoint appendix. There are 21 states accepting the post- election votes. Those colored in red are ballot acceptance states as are the blue, but the latter states must have postmarked ballots, if applicable, on November 2nd as opposed to November 3rd.

Counting

States have different laws and regulations regarding the ballot counting process. Some, such as Alabama, Michigan, Mississippi, Pennsylvania, West Virginia, and Wyoming, cannot even begin sorting and processing the ballots before Election Day. All of the others were able to at least prepare the ballots for counting. A total of 14 states, including New York, Illinois, and California, cannot begin sorting or counting until after the polls close.

Voter Turnout

Report on preliminary voter participation figures, estimates of remaining absentee ballots in various states, and how the 2020 turnout compares with other presidential election years.

Issues

This is the section where you can add issue text as to how the new lineup in Washington may affect your individual business situation.

Committee Structure

(Members listed in Red are retiring, running for another office, or defeated; Green indicates in-cycle Senators that were successfully re-elected; Purple identifies the members in races yet uncalled)

Senate Finance Committee:

Republicans Democrats

Chuck Grassley (IA) – Chairman Ron Wyden (OR) – Ranking Member Mike Crapo (ID) (MI) Pat Roberts (KS) Maria Cantwell (WA) Mike Enzi (WY) Bob Menendez (NJ) John Cornyn (TX) Tom Carper (DE) John Thune (SD) Ben Cardin (MD) Richard Burr (NC) Sherrod Brown (OH) Rob Portman (OH) Michael Bennet (CO) Pat Toomey (PA) Bob Casey Jr. (PA) Tim Scott (SC) Mark Warner (VA) Bill Cassidy (LA) Sheldon Whitehouse (RI) (OH) Maggie Hassan (NH) Steve Daines (MT) Catherine Cortez Masto (NV) Todd Young (IN) Ben Sasse (NE)

House Ways & Means Committee:

(All House members stood for election yesterday. Unless otherwise denoted in Red, the incumbent was re-elected)

Democrats Republicans

Richard Neal (MA-1) (TX-8) – Ranking Member (TX-35) (CA-22) Mike Thompson (CA-5) (FL-16) John Larson (CT-1) Adrian Smith (NE-3) (OR-3) Kenny Marchant (TX-24) (WI-3) (NY-23) (NJ-9) Mike Kelly (PA-16) Danny Davis (IL-7) George Holding (NC-2) Linda Sanchez (CA-39) (MO-8) (NY-26) (SC-7) (AL-7) (AZ-6) Suzan DelBene (WA-1) (IN-2) (CA-27) Darin LaHood (IL-18) (WI-4) (OH-2) (MI-5) (TX-19) (PA-2) Drew Ferguson (GA-3) Dwight Evans (PA-3) (KS-4) (IL-10) Tom Suozzi (NY-3) (CA-20) (FL-7) (CA-34) (NV-4) Senate Banking, Housing, and Urban Affairs

Republicans Democrats

Mike Crapo (ID) – Chairman Sherrod Brown (OH) – Ranking Member Richard Shelby (AL) Jack Reed (RI) Pat Toomey (PA) Bob Menendez (NJ) Tim Scott (SC) Jon Tester (MT) Ben Sasse (NE) Mark Warner (VA) Tom Cotton (AR) Elizabeth Warren (MA) Mike Rounds (SD) Brian Schatz (HI) David Perdue (GA) Chris Van Hollen (MD) Thom Tillis (NC) Catherine Cortez Masto (NV) John Kennedy (LA) Doug Jones (AL) Martha McSally (AZ) Tina Smith (MN) Jerry Moran (KS) Kyrsten Sinema (AZ) Kevin Cramer (ND)

House Financial Services

Democrats Republicans

Maxine Waters (CA) – Chair Patrick McHenry (NC) – Ranking Mem. (NY) Frank Lucas (OK) Nydia Velazquez (NY) (FL) (CA) (MO) (NY) (MI) Lacy Clay (MO) Steve Stivers (OH) David Scott (GA) (MO) (TX) Andy Barr (KY) (MO) Scott Tipton (CO) (CO) Roger Williams (TX) (CT) (AR) (IL) (MN) (OH) (NY) (WA) (GA) (CA) (WV) (NJ) (OH) Vicente Gonzalez (TX) (NC) (FL) (TN) (GU) (IN) (MI) Anthony Gonzalez (OH) (CA) John Rose (TN) (IA) (WI) (MA) (TX) (IL) Denver Riggleman (VA) Ben McAdams (UT) (SC) Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (NY) (TX) (VA) Stephen Lynch (MA) Tulsi Gabbard (HI) (NC) (PA) Jesus “Chuy” Garcia (IL) (TX) (MN)

Senate Health, Education, Labor & Pensions

Republicans Democrats

Lamar Alexander (TN) – Chairman Patty Murray (WA) – Ranking Member Mike Enzi (WY) Bernie Sanders (I-VT) Richard Burr (NC) Bob Casey Jr. (PA) Rand Paul (KY) Tammy Baldwin (WI) Susan Collins (ME) Christopher Murphy (CT) Bill Cassidy (LA) Elizabeth Warren (MA) Pat Roberts (KS) Tim Kaine (VA) Lisa Murkowski (AK) Maggie Hassan (NH) Tim Scott (SC) Tina Smith (MN) Mitt Romney (UT) Doug Jones (AL) Mike Braun (IN) Jacky Rosen (NV) Kelly Loeffler (GA)

House Education & Labor

Democrats Republicans

Bobby Scott (VA-3) – Chairman (NC-5) – Ranking Member Susan Davis (CA-53) Phil Roe (TN-1) Raul Grijalva (AZ-3) Glenn Thompson (PA-15) Joe Courtney (CT-2) (MI-7) Marcia Fudge (OH-11) (KY-2) Gregorio Kilili Sablan (NMI) Bradley Byrne (AL-1) (FL-24) (WI-6) (OR-1) (NY-21) (CA-41) Rick Allen (GA-12) Alma Adams (NC-12) (PA-11) Mark DeSaulnier (CA-7) (IN-3) (NJ-1) Mark Walker (NC-6) (WA-7) (KY-1) Joe Morelle (NY-25) (VA-6) (PA-7) (ID-1) (CA-10) Ron Wright (TX-6) Lucy McBath (GA-6) (PA-9) (WA-8) (SD-AL) (IL-14) (PA-12) (CT-5) (NC-3) Donna Shalala (FL-27) (NJ-2) (MI-9) (MN-5) (MD-6) (MI-11) (NV-3) (MA-3) Joaquin Castro (TX-20)