Seattle Retail 4Th Quarter Absorption | Vacancy | Rental Rate | Construction Deliveries 2019
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MARKET TRENDS | SEATTLE RETAIL 4TH QUARTER ABSORPTION | VACANCY | RENTAL RATE | CONSTRUCTION DELIVERIES 2019 MARKET RENT TREND Rent growth improved in 2019, but slowed in the 4th quarter with year over year rent growth at 1.9%. This is below the five-year average of 2.8%. Retail The retail market is strong in terms of overall occupancy but rents in the region are: Seattle CBD: there are challenges for all retail segments as the market continues $40 to $80/s.f. NNN; Seattle Mixed-Use: to evolve. $30 to $50/s.f. NNN; Suburban: $20 to $40/s.f. NNN. VACANCY NEW & PROPOSED Like many coastal gateways, the Puget Sound region outperforms CONSTRUCTION ACTIVITY the national average with lower vacancy and better rent growth. In Retail development activity is moderate the 4th quarter, the direct vacancy rate was down 33 basis points to with new development at 0.42% of 2.61%. Vacancy is down from the peak of 6.30% in the 1st quarter supply. Smaller scale developments 2011. Total available space (total vacant as well as occupied but are more prevalent whether it is available) decreased 38 basis points from 3.49% to 3.11% and build-to-suits for single tenants or remains well below the recession peak in the 4th quarter 2010 smaller buildings built for two or three at 8.00%. Every County has direct vacancy below 3.1% and total expanding tenants. KG/Principal is available under 3.6%. King County has the largest inventory and underway on Bellevue Central on 116th the lowest direct vacancy. Kitsap County has the highest direct to be anchored by PCC, Target and vacancy at 3.08% and the highest total available at 3.52%. Properties Dave & Busters. Former Sears anchors with 50,000 s.f. or more contiguous vacancy represent 1.0% of at Alderwood Mall and Tacoma Mall total inventory and 15.1% of vacancy. Most of this segment is less are being redeveloped with mixed functional. use. Northgate Mall will be largely LEASE RATE, VACANCY & AVAILABILITY SALES VOLUME, TRANSACTIONS & CAP RATE 2019 RETAIL RENTS $20.00 10% $20B 10.0% SEATTLE $40 to $80/s.f. $16.00 8% CBD $15B 7.5% NNN $12.00 6% 6.2% 6.17% 6.1% 6.1% 5.7% $10B 5.0% SEATTLE $30 to $50/s.f. $8.00 4% MIXED-USE NNN $5B 2.5% $4.00 2% $20 to $40/s.f. SUBURBAN NNN 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 1Q19 2Q19 3Q19 4Q19 Average Ask Rent Direct Vacancy Total Available Dollar Volume Transactions Cap Rate 4Q 2019 | SEATTLE | RETAIL | KIDDER MATHEWS redeveloped around mixed use and the new NHL team facility as Kidder Mathews is the largest, independent the three anchors (Nordstrom, Macy’s and JC Penney) close. New commercial real estate firm on the West development feasibility is challenged by rising construction costs Coast, with 800 real estate professionals and for developers and occupancy costs for tenants. Development costs staff in 22 offices in Washington, Oregon, are high for hard construction costs due to high levels of activity California, Nevada, and Arizona. We offer in other sectors like residential, office and industrial. Costs are also a complete range of brokerage, appraisal, high for entitlements, including mitigation fees. property management, consulting, project and construction management, and debt equity finance services for all property types. MARKET DEMAND/NET ABSORPTION Net absorption has been positive, with an annual average of 1.87 COMMERCIAL BROKERAGE million s.f. for the five-year period ending in the 4th quarter 2019. Absorption is slowing with the most recent 12 months at 1.62 million s.f. Fitness chains continue to expand with both large and small 20M 40M ANNUAL ANNUAL formats. PCC continues its expansion with announced stores in SALES SF LEASING SF mixed use projects in Bellevue, Ballard, Madison Valley, West Seattle and the Seattle CBD. New Seasons pulled out of the market, closing its Ballard store. The Mercer Island store is being taken over by Met 420+ $9B Market. The planned Capitol Hill store will be taken by PCC instead. NO. OF ANNUAL TRANSACTION BROKERS VOLUME In 2020, department store closures will continue. Macy’s sold the last portion of its Seattle CBD store to Starwood for conversion to office. The former Sears at Kitsap Mall was sold to a value add investor and will be repositioned for multiple tenants. VALUATION ADVISORY INVESTMENT ACTIVITY 1,600+ 39/24 APPRAISALS TOTAL NO. The regional market is targeted by investors for core product ANNUALLY APPRAISERS/MAI’S because of healthy economic conditions. Cap rates are very low for A quality properties and much higher for B and C quality properties. Sales volume was down in for the first three quarters of 2019. However, with a flurry of deals in the 4th quarter, the full year PROPERTY MANAGEMENT volume increased. Larger sales include Redmond Town Center at $200 million, Bellevue Connection at $122 million, a portfolio near 70M+ Alderwood mall at $95 million and Covington Esplanade at $37.4 MANAGEMENT million. In the 4th quarter, there were 96 sales of retail properties of PORTFOLIO SF $2 million or more in the Puget Sound region. 20 are redevelopment The information in this report was composed by sites, 10 are gas stations and 9 are owner user purchases. 57 are pure the Kidder Mathews Research Group. investment sales and of these 22 are single tenant net lease deals. There were 8 drugstores equally distributed with two each for each ANDY ROBINSON, MAI chain in the region. There were 4 Safeways. Albertsons continues Senior Vice President, Shareholder to do sale/leasebacks and typically sells these in portfolios that are Valuation Advisory Services then resold to individual investors. The multitenant sales are a mix of 206.205.0204 core stabilized and value add deals. The range of cap rates is 4.25% [email protected] to 8.12%, with an average of 6.04%. The average marketing time was five months. BRIAN HATCHER Regional President, Brokerage, Northwest 206.296.9634 [email protected] KIDDER.COM VACANCY: DIRECT VS. TOTAL County Vacancy Available King 2.62% 2.84% Kitsap 2.62% 3.30% This information supplied herein is from sources we deem reliable. It is provided without any representation, warranty or guarantee, Pierce 2.46% 3.39% expressed or implied as to its accuracy. Prospective Buyer or Tenant should conduct an independent investigation and verification of Snohomish 2.41% 3.11% all matters deemed to be material, including, but not limited to, statements of income and expenses. CONSULT YOUR ATTORNEY, Thurston 3.08% 3.52% ACCOUNTANT, OR OTHER PROFESSIONAL ADVISOR. Total 2.61% 3.11% DATA SOURCE: COSTAR 4Q 2019 | SEATTLE | RETAIL | KIDDER MATHEWS.