THE WORLD TURNED UPSIDE DOWN: Maintaining American Leadership in a Dangerous Age Preface by Joseph Nye and Condoleezza Rice Edited by Nicholas Burns, Leah Bitounis, and Jonathon Price CONTRIBUTORS INCLUDE: Madeleine K. Albright, Stephen E. Biegun, Nicholas Burns, Richard Danzig, John Deutch, John Dowdy, Michèle Flournoy, Michael Froman, Stephen Hadley, Christopher Kirchhoff, Anja Manuel, Joseph Nye, Condoleezza Rice, Carla Anne Robbins, David E. Sanger, David Shambaugh, Dov S. Zakheim, and Philip Zelikow. To: Walter Isaacson You have taken the Institute to new heights, and have done it with grace. We at the Aspen Strategy Group have benefited from your leadership and salute you. Copyright © 2017 by The Aspen Institute The Aspen Institute One Dupont Circle, N.W. Suite 700 Washington, DC 20036 Published in the United States of America in 2017 by The Aspen Institute All rights reserved Printed in the United States of America ISBN: 0-89843-670-2 Wye Publication Number: 17/018 Cover design by: Steve Johnson Interior layout by: Sogand Sepassi aspen strategy group Aspen Strategy Group Leadership CHAIR EMERITUS ASPEN INSTITUTE PRESIDENT Brent Scowcroft Walter Isaacson President President and CEO The Scowcroft Group, Inc. The Aspen Institute CO-CHAIRS MEMBERS Joseph S. Nye, Jr. Madeleine K. Albright University Distinguished Service Professor Chair Emeritus Albright Stonebridge Group Harvard University Graham Allison Condoleezza Rice Douglas Dillon Professor of Government Denning Professor of Global Business Harvard Kennedy School Stanford University Stephenson Senior Fellow Zoë Baird Hoover Institution CEO and President Markle Foundation DIRECTOR Stephen Biegun Nicholas Burns Vice President Roy and Barbara Goodman Family Professor Ford Motor Company of the Practice of Diplomacy and International Relations Kurt Campbell Harvard University Chairman and CEO The Asia Group DEPUTY DIRECTOR James Cartwright Harold Brown Chair Jonathon Price Center for Strategic and International Studies Deputy Director Aspen Strategy Group Eliot Cohen Professor Johns Hopkins SAIS SPECIAL PROJECTS OFFICER Leah Bitounis Richard Cooper Special Projects Officer Professor Aspen Strategy Group Harvard University Richard Danzig Jane Harman Senior Advisor Director, President and CEO Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Lab Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars John Deutch Emeritus Institute Professor David Ignatius MIT Columnist and Associate Editor The Washington Post Tom Donilon Chairman Nicholas Kristof BlackRock Investment Institute Columnist The New York Times Richard Falkenrath Chief Security Officer Leo S. Mackay, Jr. Bridgewater Associates, LP Senior Vice President - Internal Audit, Ethics and Sustainability Diana Farrell Lockheed Martin Corporation President and CEO JPMorgan Chase Institute Jessica Mathews Distinguished Fellow Peter Feaver Carnegie Endowment for International Peace Professor Duke University David McCormick President Dianne Feinstein Bridgewater Associates Senator (D-CA) United States Senate Sam Nunn Co-Chairman and CEO Michèle A. Flournoy Nuclear Threat Initiative Co-founder and CEO Center for a New American Security Meghan O’Sullivan Jeane Kirkpatrick Professor of the Practice Michael Green of International Affairs Senior Vice President for Asia and Japan Chair Harvard Kennedy School Center for Strategic and International Studies William J. Perry Richard Haass Professor (Emeritus) President Stanford University Council on Foreign Relations Tom Pritzker Stephen Hadley Executive Chairman Principal Hyatt Hotels Corp RiceHadleyGates Jack Reed John Hamre Senator (D-RI) President and CEO Ranking Member of the Senate Center for Strategic and International Studies Armed Services Committee Mitchell Reiss Jim Steinberg President and CEO University Professor, Social Science, Colonial Williamsburg Foundation International Relations and Law Syracuse University Carla Anne Robbins MIA Faculty Director, Marxe School, Baruch Strobe Talbott Adjunct Senior Fellow, CFR President The Brookings Institution David Sanger National Security Correspondent Dov Zakheim The New York Times Senior Advisor Center for Strategic and Susan Schwab International Studies Strategic Advisor Mayer Brown, LLP Philip Zelikow Professor Smita Singh University of Virginia Independent Robert B. Zoellick Anne-Marie Slaughter Chairman President and CEO AllianceBernstein New America Acknowledgements he Aspen Strategy Group (ASG) has spent more than thirty years bringing Ttogether a bipartisan group to reflect on the nation’s most pressing international relations and national security challenges. Every summer, we ask our group to discuss and debate one major issue. This year, we focused on the challenges to the liberal world order that was constructed in the aftermath of World War II. The Aspen Strategy Books series are a reflection of our annual discussions, and this publication is a direct result of our August 2017 meeting of experts and thought leaders in Aspen, Colorado. These papers provide insight into our discussions—the way the group wrestled with the diverse array of challenges. Each of us made a conscious effort to question our underlying assumptions and challenge each other to be open to the real changes that need to be made. As always, our goal in this process was to provide practical, honest, and constructive insight. We hope this book provides some clarity on these issues along with possible paths forward. In light of these emerging challenges, fostering such discussions is even more important. We are indebted to our partners, whose investment in ASG makes these meetings possible. We are grateful to Robert Abernethy, Robert and Renee Belfer, Howard Cox, Dick Elden, Gail Engelberg, Adam Metz, Francis Najafi, Lynda and Stewart Resnick, Robert Rosenkranz and Alexandra Munroe, Leah Zell, the John Anson Kittredge Educational Fund, the Markle Foundation, McKinsey & Company, the Pritzker Family Foundation, the Segal Family Foundation, and the Stanton Foundation. Without their support, this book would not have been possible. In addition, we are grateful to the many people who labored over this text. These include the authors for contributing their ideas and putting pen to paper, Gayle Bennett for proofreading and editing every page of this publication, Steve Johnson for his creative talents on the cover, and Sogand Sepassi for designing the interior layout. We are also indebted to our Brent Scowcroft Fellows, Anand Raghuraman, Ariel Fanger, and Kajsa Mayo, who spent many hours reviewing this manuscript to ensure its quality. They are all bound for distinguished careers in foreign affairs, and we look forward to reading their own papers someday. We would be remiss not to thank our leadership. Joe Nye, one of the original founders of the group, continues to lead ASG as co-chair and exemplifies the 8 The World Turned Upside Down: Maintaining American Leadership in a Dangerous Age bipartisan spirit of the group. This year, Condoleezza Rice assumed her role as ASG co-chair, following the inimitable Brent Scowcroft. She has already reminded us all why she was one of America’s finest secretaries of state. Finally, as noted in our dedication, we must thank Walter Isaacson, who has led the Aspen Institute so ably these last fourteen years. He has provided the physical and intellectual space for this group to grow and flourish. As we inscribed with a haiku on the leadership award we gave him this year: At home with Wynton Jobs, Einstein or Da Vinci Who Else? But Walter. Though we will miss his wise counsel and leadership at the Institute, we know we can count on his example and presence as we move forward. Contents Preface ...................................................................11 Joseph S. Nye, Jr. and Condoleezza Rice Foreword .................................................................13 Nicholas Burns The Ninth Annual Ernest May Memorial Lecture .........................17 The Idealism of What Works Philip Zelikow CHAPTER 1 US Trade Policy Toward Asia: Strategic Questions .......................33 Michael Froman CHAPTER 2 Restoring the Case for Free Trade .......................................47 Stephen E. Biegun CHAPTER 3 Real News, Fake News: The Assault on Truth, the Free Press, and the Liberal Order ....................................................65 Carla Anne Robbins CHAPTER 4 Short of War: Cyber Conflict and the Corrosion of International Order .........................................77 David E. Sanger CHAPTER 5 An Even Flatter World: How Technology Is Remaking the World Order ............................91 Christopher Kirchhoff CHAPTER 6 An Irresistible Force Meets a Moveable Object: The Technology Tsunami and the Liberal World Order ..................99 Richard Danzig CHAPTER 7 Maintaining America’s Lead in Creating and Applying New Technology ..............................................117 John Deutch and Condoleezza Rice CHAPTER 8 China’s Economic March: Will It Undermine the Liberal World Order? ............................123 Anja Manuel CHAPTER 9 China and the Liberal World Order .....................................139 David Shambaugh CHAPTER 10 More Tooth, Less Tail: Getting Beyond NATO’s 2 Percent Rule . .151 John Dowdy CHAPTER 11 NATO and Its Authoritarian Member States ............................167 Dov S. Zakheim CHAPTER 12 Russia’s Campaign Against American Democracy: Toward a Strategy for Defending Against, Countering, and Ultimately Deterring Future Attacks ................................177 Michèle A. Flournoy CHAPTER 13 Modernizing